AN OUTLOOK OF

INDIA’S ELECTRICITY DEMAND

ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO
THE NEXT DECADE

BIOFUEL

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 1

2 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE
 AN OUTLOOK OF

INDIA’S ELECTRICITY DEMAND

ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO
THE NEXT DECADE
 Authors
Raghav Pachouri, Shubham Thakare, Sonam Sinha

Reviewer
Srinivas Krishnaswamy

Editorial
Swati Bansal

Layout & Design

Santosh Kumar Singh

About Vasudha Foundation

Vasudha Foundation is a non-profit organisation set up in 2010. We believe in the conservation
of Vasudha, which in Sanskrit means the Earth, the giver of wealth, with the objective of
promoting sustainable consumption of its bounties. Our mission is to promote environment-
friendly, socially just and sustainable models of energy by focusing on renewable energy and
energy-efficient technologies as well as sustainable lifestyle solutions. Through an innovative
approach and data- driven analysis, creation of data repositories with cross-sectoral analysis,
along with outreach to ensure resource conservation, we aim to help create a sustainable and
inclusive future for India and Mother Earth.

Citation
Raghav Pachouri, Shubham Thakare, and Sonam Sinha. 2023. India's Electricity Demand: Analysis
and Projects to the Next Decade. Vasudha Foundation

Copyright
© 2023, Vasudha Foundation
CISRS House, 14 Jangpura B, Mathura Road, New Delhi - 110014
For more information, visit www.vasudha-foundation.org

4 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

CONTENTS
Executive Summary 8

1. Introduction 11

2. Methodology and Scenarios 13

3. Demand Projections Using Econometric Regression 15

ƒ Agriculture Sector 16
ƒ Services Sector 20
ƒ Industry Sector 23
ƒ Residential Sector 27

4. Demand Projections Using Partial End Use Method 31

ƒ Agriculture Sector 31
ƒ Services Sector 33
ƒ Industrial Sector 35
ƒ Residential Sector 39
ƒ Transport Sector 43
ƒ Railways Sector 48
ƒ Consolidated summary of electricity projections 51
ƒ How do electricity projections fare with the 20th Electric Power Survey (EPS) 53

5. Conclusion and Way Forward 54

6. Annexures 55

7. Bibliography 65

8. Abbreviations 67

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 5

List of Figures
ES 1 : (a) Projected Electricity demand (including captive) in India for FY 2029-30
(ER-CTS, ER-HGR, PE-CTS, PE-HGR), (b) Share of sectors in demand mix 8
ES 2 : Ex-Bus Electricity requirement in all scenarios and comparison with other studies 9
Figure 1 : An inter country comparison of GDP per capita, electricity consumption per capita 11
Figure 2 : Demand Forecasting Framework 13
Figure 3 : Scenarios Framework 14
Figure 4 : Econometric variables considered for demand projections 16
Figure 5 : Agricultural Electricity Consumption in ER-CTS and ER-HGR by FY 2029-30 18
Figure 6 : Services Electricity consumption in ER-CTS and ER-HGR by FY 2029-30 21
Figure 7 : Services Electricity Intensity change between FY 2015-16 to FY 2029-30 (ER-CTS) 23
Figure 8 : Historical Industry demand and share of captive consumption 24
Figure 9 : Industry Electricity consumption in ER-CTS and ER-HGR by FY 2029-30 25
Figure 10 : Residential Electricity consumption in ER-CTS and ER-HGR by FY 2029-30 28
Figure 11 : (a) Index of Agricultural Statistics, (b) Correlation between pump sets energised
and gross irrigated area (from 2005 to 2020) 32
Figure 12 : Commercial floor space area projections by FY 2029-30 34
Figure 13 : Electricity consumption projections by FY 2029-30 in Services Sector 35
Figure 14 : Industrial electricity projections in PAT, non-PAT and captive sectors by FY 2029-30 38
Figure 15 : Share of Sub sectoral electricity consumption in Industries from FY 2019-20 to
FY 2029-30 (a) PE-CTS (b) PE-HGR 38
Figure 16 : Total Registered Vehicles (a) in Millions, (b) Percentage; (c) Vehicle Motorization
Index (Vehicles/1000 people) 43/44
Figure 17 : a) Total EV Registrations, (b) Share of EV in total Vehicle segments 45
Figure 18 : Total Vehicles Registered till FY 2029-30 (a) PE-CTS and (b) PE-HGR 46
Figure 19 : Category wise registered EVs by FY 2029-30 47
Figure 20 : Electricity Consumption by EVs in PE-CTS and PE-HGR by FY 2029-30 48
Figure 21 : Electricity Consumption in Railways Traction and Non-traction segment (PE-CTS)
by FY 2029-30 49
Figure 22 : Comparison of Electricity consumption share by FY 2029-30 in Econometric
and PEUM 52

6 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

List of Tables
Table 1 : Agriculture statistics in India 17
Table 2 : Number of States and their independent correlation parameters with
electricity consumption 18
Table 3 : Agricultural intensive states consumption statistics by FY 2029-30 19
Table 4 : Services sector statistics in India 20
Table 5 : Services intensive states consumption statistics by FY 2029-30 22
Table 6 : Industry Sector Statistics in India 24
Table 7 : Industry intensive states consumption statistics by FY 2029-30 26
Table 8 : Residential Sector Statistics in India 27
Table 9 : High Residential Electricity Consuming states statistics by FY 2029-30 29
Table 10 : Key Summary results from Econometric forecasting scenarios 30
Table 11 : Agricultural Gross and Net Electricity consumption by FY 2029-30 33
Table 12 : Industrial Production and outlook statistics 36
Table 13 : Rise in Appliance Ownership in Urban and rural geographies 40
Table 14 : Electricity demand (TWh) in Residential sector by Appliance in FY 2026-27
and FY 2029-30 41
Table 15 : EV Penetration of new sales in the scenarios considered 45
Table 16 : Key Summary results from PEUM scenarios (all values in TWh) 50
Table 17 : Consolidated results from Econometric and PEUM methodology (All values in TWh) 51
Table 18 : Ex Bus Electricity Requirement across FY 2026-27 to FY 2036-37 53

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 7

 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
E lectricity demand forecasting is an integral part of a robust power system planning, which helps
to ensure affordable and reliable power to all. India's electricity demand will grow multifold in
the coming years and will experience a continuous growth supported by post pandemic economic
recovery, electrification of the transport sector, higher penetration of residential end use appliances,
and manufacturing growth with indigenisation supported by various central government policies.

This report provides an extensive analysis of electricity demand projections for both national and sub-
national level over the next decade. The analysis is based on historical data, current trends in electricity
consumption, demographic changes, and various economic growth indicators. Two overarching
methodologies- Econometric Regression (ER) Method and Partial End-Use Method (PEUM)- are
adopted to assess the electricity demand. The result of these two methodologies are further analysed
for two scenarios: Current Trajectory Scenario (CTS) and High Growth Rate (HGR) Scenario.

1. National Electricity demand set to rise two folds by 2030

By 2030, the total electricity demand in the country, including captive demand (excluding T&D losses)
is projected to be 2,060 – 2,699 TWh. The utility level demand including T&D losses would likely be
in the range of 2,039-2,454 TWh. The wide range of projections within the scenarios indicate the
underlying uncertainties in each sector. With a 6 percent growth from the current level, the industrial
sector is expected to be the biggest contributor (~40 percent) to the increasing electricity demand,
followed by the residential and commercial sectors. Furthermore, the projections for 2037 suggests a
rise in ex-bus electricity requirement to 2,936-3,175 TWh, which is in line with the Central Electricity
Authority’s (CEA) projection of 3,095 TWh.
100% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1%
3000 3% 3% 100% 3% 3%
90% 2699
17% 16% 14%
16% 16% 90% 17% 14%
16% 16% 16%
80% 2500 2349
2227 376 80%
Electricity Consumption (%)

2060
Electricity Consumption (%)
Electricity Consumption (TWh)

70% 23%23%
26% 332
26% 70% 26%
2000 26%
364
26% 26% 26% 26%
614
60% 339 60%
576 11%11%
50% 1500
13% 1310 575 305 50% 13% 14% 14%
541 14% 14% 14% 14%
40% 228 263 40%
1000 314
341 281 30%
30%
1296 48%
171 20% 42% 39% 39% 46% 48%
20% 42%
500 39%
1083
39% 46%
804 867
547 10%
10%
0 0%
0% ER-CTS ER-HGR PE-CTS PE-HGR ER-CTS ER-HGR PE-CTS PE-HGR
2021-22 ER-CTS2029-30 ER-HGR 2021-22 PE-CTS 2029-30 PE-HGR
2021-22 (a) 2029-30 (b)

Industry Services Residential Agriculture Transport Railways

ES1. (a) Projected Electricity demand (including captive) across scenarios in India for FY 2029-30,
(b) Share of sectors in demand mix

8 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 Vasudha Scenarios
Year CEA 20th EPS
ER-CTS ER-HGR PE-CTS PE-HGR

FY 2026-27 1758 1831 1668 1782 1907

FY 2029-30 2039 2191 2215 2454 2279

FY 2036-37 2936 3175 NA NA 3095

ES2. Ex-Bus Electricity requirement (TWh) in all scenarios and comparison with other studies.

2. Sectoral Outlook

Industry
Throughout the next decade, the industrial sector continues to drive the surge in the electricity
demand, which will comprise about 40 percent of the total electricity demand mix. Therefore, it is
anticipated that the Industrial electricity demand would reach 804-1296 TWh across the scenarios
studied by 2030.

Policy mandates towards fuel switching along with rise in industrial production (255 MT steel production
by 2030, as compared to 120 MT as of today) are expected to augment an additional 175-250 TWh
electricity requirement by 2030, in line with the target to boost domestic manufacturing capacity and a
growing impetus for green hydrogen as a fuel and feedstock in heavy industries (5 MT green hydrogen
production by 2030). Thus, based on the PEUM forecast the industry electricity demand will rise to
1,083-1,296 TWh by 2030.

Residential
Across the scenarios evaluated, the residential electricity demand is anticipated to rise to 542-614 TWh
by 2030. Space cooling will account for the largest share of ~67 percent in the residential electricity
consumption. Due to rapid urbanisation and intensifying heat stress, the residential air conditioning
stock is expected to reach ~240 million units, thus resulting in a total electricity consumption of 268-
310 TWh for residential cooling by 2030. This represents almost a two-fold rise in penetration of
residential cooling in households as compared to the current situation. A new residential electricity
demand for electronic appliances is also emerging thus increasing electricity consumption for the
sector to 135-141 TWh for 2030, which is 110 percent higher as compared to 2021. However, the
growth of decentralised agricultural pumps and solar rooftops will result in a reduction of 61-80 TWh
from the gross consumption forecast.

Transport
Road transport registrations are expected to reach 521-538 million in 2030 from 349 million in 2022.
The private ownership of four wheelers is expected to rise to 51-57 vehicles per 1000 capita in 2030,
which is double the current levels. By 2030, the road transport electrification is anticipated to be

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 9

significantly driven by both private and public transport, thus creating new electricity demand for the
sector and occupying 3-4 percent share of the total electricity demand at 61-65 TWh. Overall, road and
railways electrification are expected to contribute ~110 TWh to the electricity demand by 2030.

Services
The services sector is expected to witness a rapid growth predominantly due to rising electricity
demand from increasing commercial floor space area and higher air conditioning requirement in the
financial, IT and retail sectors. By 2030, the floor space area is anticipated to increase by twofold
to 1,555-1,600 million sq.m. as compared to 2017 while the electricity demand for air-conditioned
commercial cooling space is projected to increase to 201-240 TWh. However, the non-air-conditioned
spaces would account for only a third of the services electricity demand.

3. Efforts to strengthen end use modelling

According to all the scenarios discussed in the study, the ex-bus electricity requirement is expected
to increase from 2,030 to 2,454 TWh by 2030. The use of different forecasting methodologies and
underlying assumptions can, however, result in a wide range of potential outcomes. This highlights
the importance of having access to accurate and comprehensive end-use demand data, including
information regarding appliance penetration, industrial production, and building stock across different
demographic groups. Unfortunately, such data is currently limited in India. This lack of data poses a
challenge for forecasting electricity demand and planning for optimal electricity supply in the near
to mid-term. To address this issue, more efforts should be made to promote transparency and data
dissemination at both the state and national levels, which will help improve the accuracy of future
electricity forecasts and support better planning for meeting India's electricity requirements.

10 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 1 INTRODUCTION

F ollowing independence, electricity consumption has increased from a mere 16 kWh per capita
in 1947 to 1208 kWh in 2020 (Hindustan Times, 2020) indicative of economic growth, increased
electricity access due to provision of affordable electricity to all households, reduced electricity
shortages, and continued transition to the use of emerging technologies. The changing economic
landscape has further led to structural changes of the Indian electricity demand. Residential electricity
consumption, which has overtaken industrial consumption, now accounts for more than a third of total
consumption, resulting in daily and seasonal electricity demand patterns.

As compared to other global economies, the per capita electricity consumption in India remains
fairly low. This can be gauged from Figure 1. showing the comparison of electricity consumption per
capita versus Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita for developed as well as emerging market and
developing economy (EMDE) countries. India’s per capita electricity consumption is almost one tenth
of the developing countries and a fifth of EMDE countries. The varied margin indicates that India is
likely to experience electricity growth in the years to come.

80 k

United States
70 k 13.1K
GDP Per Capita (Current US Dollar), 2018

Germany Australia
60 k 9.9K
6.8K

50 k United Canada
France
Kingdom 15.4K
7.1K
4.9K Japan
40 k 8.0K
Italy
5.2K Korea,Rep
30 k 11.1K

20 k China
4.9K Russian Federa�c
India Brazil
10 k 6.9K
1.2K 2.6K South Africa
4.0K

0
10 k

11 k

12 k

13 k

14 k

15 k

16 k
1k

2k

3k

4k

5k

6k

7k

8k

9k

Electricity Consump�on (kWh/capita), 2018

The bubble size contrasts the country GDP, however the value next to the bubble is electricity consumption per capita.

Figure 1 : An inter country comparison of GDP per capita, electricity consumption per capita

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 11

Despite being one of the most complex and largest networks in the world, the Indian power grid has
been tested for resilience during extreme events. The most predominant event was the onset of the
Covid-19 pandemic which caused unprecedented drop in electricity demand across the country. In
March 2020, during the week following lockdown when economic activities especially in industry and
services sector were hampered, the peak electricity demand plummeted by 28 percent (Saur Energy,
2020). However, the impact of the pandemic in agricultural and residential electricity consumption
was not significant due to resumption in agricultural activities and work from home measure being
practiced widely. During the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, electricity consumption saw a decline
of 5.4 percent and 2.7 percent in services and industry sectors, respectively, while it grew at 5.2 percent
for the agriculture and 4.9 percent for residential sector.

Even though Covid -19 impacted the overall economic growth in the past two years, the Indian
economy is recovering. The projected real GDP growth for the current year is 6.8 – 7 percent (Business
Standard, 2022) and for the next decade it is expected to be in the range of 6 - 7 percent. According
to the International Monetary Funds (IMF), India will be on par with the covid recovery, boosted by
domestic consumption and capital investments. However, rising interest rates, higher inflation, and
slowing global growth may impact the economic activities and result in a slower overall economic
growth. Sectors like services and industry, in particular, are likely to see a higher growth trajectory,
as the macroeconomic drivers are strongly correlated with the Indian electricity demand. This further
depends on the ambitious policies and programmes that aim to promote energy efficiency and reduce
the overall energy intensity.

In addition, as discussed above, the Covid-19 pandemic, economic slowdown etc, have impacted
the electricity consumption in the country and necessitates a reassessment of the electricity needs
in the coming decade. In this direction, this report attempts to assess the quantum of electricity
demand foreseen comprehensively. The approach and methodology would be discussed in the
following sections, however to this end, it is worth mentioning that this report brings out a broad
range of scenarios anticipating Indian electricity demand as it grows with emerging technologies and
underpinning policies, thus electrifying new end-use sectors.

12 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 2 METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIOS

T his report covers the electricity demand forecasts for 2030, along with a brief outlook for the
FY 2036-37, considering two varying methodologies. Figure 2 illustrates the framework used in
this report. Firstly, we estimate the forecasts based on econometric regression methodology (both a
univariate and multivariate) for which a top-down approach is considered by forecasting the state level
electricity demand aggregated at national level. This also includes forecasting transmission & distribution
losses and calculating ex-bus demand (for utilities demand) for 2030. Secondly, in the partial end use
method, we assess the electricity demand of all the demand sectors/drivers (existing and new) at the
national level considering in detail the stock of appliances, industrial processes, material intensities,
other policy mandates etc. The end use sectors covered are residential, services, agriculture and
Industry. We further project the demand separately for public lighting and emerging demand sectors
including electrification of road transportation as well as Indian railways and green hydrogen usage in
heavy industry.

Econometric Regression Par�al End Use Method

Methods Top Down Bo�om Up

Forecasted Annually &

Temporality disaggregated at States
Annually Forecasted at Na�onal Level

Policy mandates and

Scenarios Sectoral Economic Growth
Technology Efficiency

Residen�al, Commercial Buildings, Industry, Railways, Agriculture,

Sectors Transport, Public Services

Figure 2 : Demand Forecasting Framework

Scenarios
In this report, we cover scenarios which are broadly aligned to the anticipated growth of the Indian
economy by 2030. We consider macroeconomic forecast indicators aligning with current growth rate
and an estimate for a higher growth range scenario. There are two scenario categories considered
namely Current Trajectory Scenario (CTS) and High Growth Rate scenario (HGR). Taking into account

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 13

the macroeconomic forecasts, we assume a pre-covid growth in the CTS for independent variables
and a percentage point increase in the HGR. While the underlying principle guiding these scenarios
in Econometric and Partial-End use scenarios remains the same (i.e., the economic growth), the
methodology for devising individual parameters remains different. In econometric forecasts, the
electricity demand is a broad function of macroeconomic growth rates, whereas in the partial end-
use method, it is dependent on the rate of adoption of end-use (for example industrial production,
appliance usage, floor space area, etc.).

Current trajectory scenario

(ER-CTS)

Econometric regression
High Growth rate scenario
(ER-HGR)

Electricity
Demand
Projec�on
Current trajectory scenario
(PE-CTS)

Par�al end use method

High Growth rate scenario

(PE-HGR)

Figure 3: Scenarios Framework

14 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 3 DEMAND PROJECTIONS USING
ECONOMETRIC REGRESSION
I n this section, we present a comprehensive analysis of the electricity demand projections for 2030 using
econometric regression. Furthermore, we explored various econometric parameters that could affect
the broad sectoral forecasts in the Indian states. The projections include majority of the states, except
for a few Union Territories where we have estimated the demand using a compounded annual growth
method, given the non-uniformity in economic data and its correlation with respect to end use sectors.

With the objective to cover the impact of COVID contraction on electricity demand for further projections,
the base year was chosen as FY 2021-22. Thus, the econometric projections not only serve as a forecasting
method, but are also an underlying metric to investigate electricity intensity of sectors that may be
affected in near to mid-term. In light of this, we try to investigate underlying growth in each sector
and consider elasticity of demand as one of the metrics to understand the electricity demand growth.

There are several independent variables that influence the electricity demand, varying from climatic
conditions, demography, structure of the economy etc. It is quite evident from the past experiences
across the globe that countries evolving from developing status to developed go through a structural
change with sectors evolving in the process (IMF, 2013). Thus, it is crucial to understand this transition
that eventually shapes the electricity demand.

Broader assumptions for econometric forecasts

We have undertaken the econometric regression analysis using both Univariate and Multivariate1
regression methods. However, we did not find a substantial change in either of the analyses and
therefore, we refer to all scenarios hereby as multivariate regression analysis, unless otherwise
mentioned separately. The multivariate regression has been formulated under various machine
learning methods based on python language, and are analysed endogenously. Figure 4 shows the
independent and dependent variables used in the econometric forecasts for each end use sector. As
seen in Figure 4, the sectoral electricity demand is the major dependent variable driver, while the
other variables mentioned in the sectoral box represent all the independent variables.

In order to understand the impact of various independent variables on overall electricity consumption,
data was collected from multiple sources including CEA General Review report while the macro-
economic data such as GDP, Sectoral Gross Value Added (GVA), Gross Irrigated Area, etc., were sourced
from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the econometric analysis, we have e�sured to fit the model
with data availability to a maximum extent and as exhaustively possible obtain the historical trend of
various input data closely. We have considered FY 2015-16 as our first year of data availability and
although this may not represent a long history of data related to the sector; it eliminates in consistency.
1 Multivariate regression considers more than 1 independent variable to forecast linearly whereas Univariate considers a single independent variable.

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 15

 AGRICULTURE SECTOR
INDUSTRY SECTOR Agricultural GVA
Industry GVA Gross Irrigated Area
GSDP Econometric Pumpsets energized
Industrial Consumers Forecast Foodgrain produc�on
Agricultural Consumers
(Electricity
Demand)
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Urban & Rural Popula�on Urban & Rural Popula�on
GSDP GSDP
Residen�al Consumers Residen�al Consumers

Figure 4 : Econometric variables considered for demand projections

If certain variables are not calibrated correctly, econometric forecasts are bound to contain error
particularly the temporal horizon, consistency of data and so on. Moreover, multiple independent
variables shaping the electricity demand may distort the forecasts. Thus, it is important to maintain
uniformity and clarity in forecasts. This can be verified by performing a number of tests including
multicollinearity, homoscedasticity, linearity and comparison of correlation coefficients between
independent and dependent variables. Furthermore, we explored different supervised regression
models such as multiple linear regression, support vector regression etc. and adopted the one that
best fit to the test data. In the subsequent sections, we will discuss in detail the individual sectors and
demand projections results.

Agriculture Sector
In the last decade, the agriculture sector has contributed to ~15 percent of the total value added
(VA) and almost a half of the country’s workforce, predominantly contributes to a large-scale informal
workforce (RBI, 2023a). As countries transition to developed economies, the share of agriculture in
overall GDP decreases. As for India, it has seen a decline from a third of the country’s VA share in 1980 to
less than a fifth of the country’s VA currently. In addition, the sector is relatively less electricity intensive
when compared to other sectors. The electricity intensity of the sector rose from 7.2 kWh/Rs1000
(constant FY 2011-12) in FY 2000-01 to ~11 kWh/Rs1000 in FY 2020-21 (CEA, 2022). This can be gauged
from two factors: First, with improved access to electricity, there has been an increased reliance on
irrigation for groundwater pumping while the share of diesel pumps has reduced substantially owing to
government’s focus on phasing out diesel pumps across the country. Although, the Electricity intensity,
as seen in the table is on a decline between 2015-22 owing to improving efficiency in irrigation pumping.
Secondly, over the last two decades, due to a growth of 0.2 percent land under cultivation (net sown
area) year-on-year, foodgrain yield per hectare has grown at a rate of 2 percent, implying a higher
cropping intensity (number of times a given area has been sown in a given year). Consequently, the
cropping intensity increased from 1.28 in FY 2001-02 to 1.44 in FY 2019-20 (DA&FW, 2022). Thus,
taking into account the historical trends, it is expected that the cropping intensity is bound to increase
in the coming years, with increased accessibility to irrigation.

16 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

Table 1 : Agriculture statistics in India

CAGR
Parameter FY 2015-16 FY 2021-22 (FY 2015-16 to
FY 2021-22)

Cumulative Pumpsets energized (Millions) 20.4 25.3 3.6%

Total Foodgrain Production (MT) 251 315 4.0%

Gross Irrigated Area (Million hectares) 97 118 4.0%

GVA (Real) (Trillion Rs)# 16.2 21.5 4.9%

Share of Agriculture in Total GVA (%) 15.4 15.5 0.1%

Electricity Intensity (kWh/1000Rs) 10.7 10.6 -0.2%

Cropping Intensity2 1.38 1.43 0.7%

Yield per hectare (kg/ha) 1.2 1.4

Sectoral Demand Elasticity 3 0.98

# Agricultural GVA here refers to GVA from Agriculture, forestry and fishing.
Source: (CEA, 2022; DA&FW, 2022; RBI, 2023a)

In order to forecast electricity demand from the agricultural sector, we have used the Correlation
Coefficient (CC) to highlight key statistics emerging from the states. Table 2 shows the number of
states with a correlation fit of independent variables against the dependent one, that is the electricity
consumption. We have observed that the CC varies with independent variables across the states,
so we only consider those variables that have a strong correlation (>90 percent) with the electricity
consumption. In case of a weaker correlation, we neglect those variables and consider univariate
forecasts having the highest correlation. For few states with a higher growth in certain years, although
this might prove to be an outlier in states with smaller population and thus, for datasets such as these
we have placed a growth constraint over such independent variables (at 7 percent in line with the
national GDP growth).

2 Cropping Intensity determines the number of times a field was sown in a year. It is a ratio of gross irrigated area to net sown area.
3 Ratio of Change in Electricity demand to change in Value added. It signifies the sensitivity of electricity demand to a dependent parameter, here which is value
added.

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 17

Table 2: Number of States and their independent correlation parameters with electricity consumption

Parameters Number of States having

>80 percent correlation >90 percent correlation
Agricultural GVA 16 12
GSDP (Real) 12 8
Gross Irrigated Area 26 6
Pumpsets Energized 21 5
Production of foodgrains 7 18
Number of Consumers 5 3

Source: Author's Analysis

Econometric projections for agricultural electricity demand

In accordance with the econometric forecasts, it is projected that the aggregate electricity consumption
of the agricultural sector in the country will reach 338 and 364 TWh in the ER-CTS and ER-HGR,
respectively by 2030. Figure 5 illustrates these projections from 2015 to 2030. It is important to
note, that commensurate with agriculture's real GVA growth of 3.1 percent by 2030, the electricity
consumption from the sector is expected to rise at the rate of 5.1 percent which is 2-3 percent faster
than sectoral value added. On the other hand, the electricity consumption in the ER-HGR is expected
to grow at 5.8 percent from 2022 onwards. It is in line with the baseline projections, which estimate
that the sectoral demand elasticity to value added will rise to 1.21-1.22, compared to 0.98 in 2015 to
2021. Owing to increase in irrigation requirements, the sector’s electricity intensity is also expected to
increase in the range of 12.5-15 kWh/1000Rs (as per 2011 constant prices).
400

350
Electricity Consumption (TWh)

300

250
Projections
200

150

100

50

Historical ER-CTS ER-HGR

Figure 5 : Agricultural Electricity Consumption in ER-CTS and ER-HGR by FY 2029-30

18 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

By 2030, the total number of pump sets is anticipated to rise from 21 million in FY 2020-21 (CEA, 2022)
to a range of 33-34 million, representing a growth rate of ~4 percent per annum. This is discussed in
more detail in the PEUM section where we have assessed the impact due to agricultural pumping. In
order to understand the state level impact on agricultural electricity demand in the ER-CTS, we present
insights from the major consuming states in the Exhibit 1. However, the state level projections for all
the states are included in the annexures.

Exhibit 1: Top eight agricultural value adding states that contribute to 78 percent
of the agricultural demand
By 2030, eight states, namely Punjab, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh, are expected to contribute 82 percent of the agricultural
electricity demand and 73 percent of the country’s agricultural GVA. Table 3 provides comparison
of the key parameters within these states. It has been observed that the electricity intensity of
these states is higher than the national average (16 kWh/1000 Rs). Furthermore, as compared
to 2022, these major states will be electricity intensive by 2030 indicative of a higher electricity
consumption than the GVA growth. Despite higher pumping demand, we see an overall
contraction in the GVA, moderately slower than electricity consumption. In our econometric
model, we have not taken into account an additional efficiency improvement other than the
existing ones which are based on the historical trend. However, our end use section delves into
the impact of higher efficiency improvement, considering the impact of pumpset usage patterns
and consumption. Interestingly, these states have improved cropping patterns as the gross
irrigated area4 as a percentage of net sown area has increased by 165 percent, compared to the
national average of 144 percent. This implies that access to irrigation directly impacts yield per
hectare thereby increases electricity consumption.

Table 3: Agricultural intensive states consumption statistics by FY 2029-30

Electricity Electricity Electricity Electricity

% Contribution in Demand
Consumption Consumption Intensity Intensity
State Agricultural GVA elasticity
FY 2021-22 FY 2029-30 FY 2021-22 FY 2029-30
(FY 2029-30) (2021-2030)
(TWh) (ER-CTS) (TWh) (kWh/1000Rs) (kWh/1000Rs)
MH 36.3 58.7 15.0 15.2 12% 1.03
RJ 28.8 44.6 19.2 20.1 7% 1.09
MP 26.5 42.2 11.4 11.7 11% 1.04
TG 22.2 34.9 30.8 29.3 4% 0.92
KA 21.9 29.5 16.5 16.2 6% 0.95
UP 19.0 29.3 6.5 6.3 14% 0.95
TN 13.4 21.7 14.3 13.7 5% 0.93
PB 12.6 17.1 14.7 14.6 4% 0.98

4 Gross irrigated area as % of net sown area denotes the % incremental amount of time in the year where the land was sown more than once

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 19

Impact due to the PM KUSUM scheme: Aiming to solarise the agricultural sector (component B & C),
the PM KUSUM scheme envisages reduction in electricity dependence on the grid through a range of
interventions that includes installation of solar pumps and feeder solarisation. A detailed discussion
of the comprehensive impact due to policy mandates of pump solarisation would be done in the end
use section, however to this end, it is important to note that as per the Government of India’s policy to
install 1.75 million decentralised solar pumps by 2030 (PIB, 2022b)approximately 41 TWh (14 percent
of the agricultural consumption) of the electricity demand will be off the grid, as a result of solar
agricultural pumping. This would provide the dual advantage of reducing T&D losses on the grid as well
as liability to the distribution utilities in terms of purchasing power to the agricultural sector, which is
heavily subsidised today.

Services Sector
There is a rapid economic growth of the services sector in India and it currently contributes to
~60 percent of the country’s total value added (RBI, 2023a). As compared to its overall share of GDP of
54 percent, the sector’s share of final energy consumption is higher, accounting for 59 percent of the
energy use (IEA, 2021). Moreover, the sector contributed ~16 percent of the total electricity demand
in the past years. From FY 2015-16 to FY 2021-22, the electricity consumption in the sector grew at
~3 percent CAGR owing to COVID induced contraction in Indian economy. The post liberalisation era
opened up avenues for the services sector primarily in the financial, IT and retail spheres. This has led
to a rapid rise in the electricity consumption due to increased commercial floor space area and higher
demand for air conditioning. The highlights of India’s services sector are shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Services sector statistics in India

Parameter FY 2015-16 FY 2021-22 Growth during this period

Electricity Consumption (TWh) 148.7 170.9 2.3%

GVA BAU (Rs Trillion) (Real) 52.6 69.4 4.7%

Electricity Intensity (kWh/1000Rs) 2.5 2.3 -1.4%

Demand Elasticity 0.54 NA

Sector Employment(Millions) 151 186 4.2%

Source: (ICED, 2023), (RBI, 2023a), (RBI, 2023b)

In the pre-covid period (2016 to 2020), the electricity consumption grew by ~5.8 percent, whereas
the GVA grew at 7.3 percent at a moderately faster rate. The electricity intensity of the sectoral GVA
stood at 2.23 kWh/1000 Rs in FY 2021-22, compared to 2.5 kWh/1000 Rs in FY 2015-16. With the
compliance of BEE norms for Energy Efficiency in Commercial Spaces with regard to space cooling
and energy conservation measures, the energy intensity has dropped down marginally. Further, the
COVID-induced lockdown resulted in an increase in online service activities while reducing electricity

20 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

consumption in the commercial sector. It is anticipated that an increase in air conditioning needs in
building spaces will increase electricity consumption in the next decade, driven by increased purchasing
power and heatwave intensity. Higher economic output, however, would keep the electricity intensity
at a marginal increase. We will examine the need for higher cooling demand in commercial spaces in
greater detail in the end use section.

Econometric projections for services electricity demand

Based on our estimates of the ER-CTS and ER-HGR the electricity consumption of the services sector is
expected to grow to ~281 and 304 TWh, respectively by FY 2029-30. It is projected to grow at a rate of
6.4-7.5 percent annually as compared to 4.9 percent during the period 2015 to 2022.

According to the econometric forecasts, the electricity consumption has a strong correlation with
the sectoral value added (R2=0.97). Continuing to account for 17-18 percent of country’s total
electricity demand, the sectoral trend does not appear to have a drastic change, and is just a few
percentage points higher than the current demand. Even though the electricity consumption is expected
to grow by 2020, the electricity intensity remains moderately similar in the range of 2.7-2.83. The
Exhibit 2 compares the electricity intensities of some of the Indian states during FY 2015-16 with that of
FY 2029-30.

350

300

250
Electricity Consumption (TWh)

Projections
200

150

100

50

0
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Historical ER-CTS ER-HGR

Figure 6 : Services Electricity consumption in ER-CTS and ER-HGR by FY 2029-30

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 21

 Exhibit 2: Which states are electricity intensive and what factors contribute to this rise?
Table 5 presents the results of electricity demand forecasts for the eight key states which have
significantly contributed to the services value added across the country. As shown in the table,
Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan,
and Telangana collectively contribute to ~61 percent of the total services value added by 2030.
This trend is almost identical to the past growth level, with the exception of a few percentage
point adjustment. However, electricity consumption in these states contributes to 62 percent
of the total services electricity consumption and it is interesting to note that not all states have
observed an increase in electricity intensity. The services sector is highly elastic to change in its
economic value added, therefore, states like Karnataka and Rajasthan are able to improve by
reducing the electricity intensity at the rate of 5 percent by 2030. On the contrary, we observe
that few of the states showcase a moderate improvement or even exceeded their electricity
intensity when compared to the current level. The average energy intensity of these eight states
in 2030 is 2.9 kWh/1000Rs (Real FY 2011-12) versus the national average of 2.74 kWh/1000 Rs
(Real FY 2011-12)

Table 5: Services intensive states consumption statistics by FY 2029-30

Electricity Electricity Electricity Electricity
% Contribution Demand
Consumption Consumption Intensity Intensity
State in Services GVA elasticity
(TWh) (TWh) (kWh/1000 Rs) (kWh/1000 Rs)
(FY 2029-30) (2022-30)
(FY 2021-22) (FY 2029-30) (FY 2021-22) (FY 2029-30)

MH 19.09 32.81 1.91 1.95 0.15 1.03

UP 16.39 28.16 3.04 3.07 0.08 1.01

TN 15.32 24.41 2.53 2.57 0.09 1.03

KA 12.13 20.69 1.82 1.81 0.10 0.99

TS 10.65 18.29 3.09 3.10 0.05 1.01

AP 10.29 17.68 4.25 4.85 0.03 1.24

WB 9.38 14.95 2.47 2.49 0.05 1.02

RJ 8.86 14.66 3.23 3.12 0.04 0.95

The scatter plot in Figure 7 further illustrates the comparison of electricity intensity with reference to
services sector across all the Indian states for FY 2015-16 and FY 2029-30. The decline in electricity
intensity is represented in blue (i.e. improvement), whereas an increase is marked in red. As per the
plot, by 2030, although most of the states show a decline in the services electricity intensity, we observe

22 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

that only a few states show a substantial increase (marked in red). States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra
Pradesh are anticipated to have a much higher electricity consumption growth than the current growth
rate in service sector, indicative of a boost in commercial floor space area in finance, retail and IT
sectors which are highly electricity intensive.

6 JK
OD

5 AP
Electricity Intensity (FY 2029-30)

4
GA

MH MP PY
AS UP HP
RJ PB
UK
3
CG
WB HR
TN
NL
MN KA
MZ
2 BR
KL
TR KA
JH DL
GJ
ML
1

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Electricity Intensity FY 2015-16 (kWh/1000Rs)

(a) The abbreviation for states are as per road transport office code. (b) States coloured as red signifies
increase in electricity intensity while blue signifies the decrease in electricity intensity.

Figure 7 : Services Electricity Intensity change between FY 2015-16 to FY 2029-30 (ER-CTS)

Industry Sector
In India, industry is one of the most electricity-intensive sectors, and it consumes electricity from both
utilities and captive sources, resulting in a diverse electricity consumption pattern. Between 2015
to 2022, the industrial production contributed to ~23 percent of the country’s gross value added
(RBI, 2023a). Accounting for 70-75 percent of the sectoral employment (RBI, 2022), the sector is
also a major contributor to semi and unskilled labour. The key statistics of electricity consumption

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 23

and associated parameters for India’s industry sector are presented in Table 6. During the period
2015-2022, the economic output from the industrial sector advanced at a rate of ~5 percent, however,
the electricity consumption grew at a slower pace at 4.2 percent as compared to the sectoral value
added. In FY 2020-21, several factors, including COVID-19 lockdown and energy efficiency policy
measures by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency’s (BEE) Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT), resulted in a
marginal reduction of 0.8 percent in the electricity intensity. In comparison to the pre-covid year, the
industrial electricity consumption dropped by 3 percent during the first wave of the COVID pandemic.

Table 6: Industry Sector Statistics in India

Parameters FY 2015-16 FY 2021-22 Growth (%)

Electricity Consumption (TWh) (BAU) 429.36 547.34 4.13%

GVA BAU (Rs Lakh) (BAU) (Real) 332933 446259 5.00%

Electricity Intensity (kWh/1000Rs) (BAU) 12.90 12.27 -0.83%

Demand Elasticity (BAU) 0.85

Source: (ICED, 2023), (RBI, 2023a)

Furthermore, to provide reliable electricity output for large scale industrial production, the sector
also substantially contributes to the overall captive consumption. Figure 8 depicts the total electricity
consumption and the captive share of that consumption. There has been a fairly constant share of
captive consumption within the sector, which stands at 32- 38 percent throughout the years, even
though it has a diverse base in the sector. The total installed captive capacity accounts for ~77 GW with
steel industry having the largest share of 19 percent, aluminium 9 percent, cement 8 percent while
other industries make up the rest. For our econometric projections for 2030, we have not considered
a fixed captive share of the total electricity consumption, rather we forecast utilities and non-utilities
electricity consumption separately and then calculate the captive share accordingly for each year.

600 35%

30%
Electricity Consumption (TWh)

500
Captive Share in ITotal ndustrial
Electricity Consumption

25%
400
20%
300
15%
200
10%

100 5%

0 0%
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Total Industry Demand Captive Share of Total Industrial Electricity Demand

Figure 8 : Historical Industry demand and share of captive consumption

24 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

Econometric projections for industry electricity demand
In the ER-CTS and ER-HGR, by 2030, the electricity demand (utilities and non-utilities) will reach 804
TWh and 867 TWh, respectively, compared to 547 TWh in 2021-22. We observe a strong correlation
between electricity consumption and Industrial GVA (R2=0.98) and GSDP (R2=0.96). In spite of the
slowdown in growth during the pandemic, it has been predicted that amidst the post recovery period
leading to 2030, the industrial electricity consumption would grow at 4.6 percent and 5 percent in the
ER-CTS and ER-HGR, respectively, while the electricity intensity is bound to improve during this period
According to our econometric forecasts, the electricity intensity in the industry sector is anticipated
to reach 12.3-12.6 kWh/1000 Rs by 2030. This indicates towards higher electricity consumption in
electricity intensive sectors including aluminium and steel. As a point of note, the projections are based
on current economic growth and existing energy efficiency measures in the post-pandemic economic
recovery setting, and do not assume additional improvements in energy efficiency or material intensity.
The section pertaining to material intensity and industrial production linked to independent sectors is
further discussed in the PEUM section.

1000

900

800

700
Electricity Consumption (TWh)

Projections
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Historical ER-CTS ER-HGR

Figure 9 : Industry Electricity Demand in ER-CTS and ER-HGR by FY 2029-30

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 25

 Exhibit 3: Which states are industry electricity intensive and are they likely to remain so?
Post liberalization, while many states witnessed an upsurge in private investments in both heavy
and medium scale industries, only a few have been able to actually improve their energy efficiency
measures. Table 7 lists the top eight contributors to the industry based on their GVA. As foreseen,
by 2030, these states will collectively contribute ~55 percent of the country’s total industrial
GVA which is almost equal to the current GVA contribution. However, we note that the growth
in the GVA and the electricity consumption varies significantly across the states. For few states
like Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu although there is an improvement in
the electricity intensity, but it still remains higher than the national average. In contrast, heavy
industry dominant states such as Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Odisha have seen a marginal
increase in electricity intensity. Here, we would like to emphasize the electricity intensity nature
of these states, especially in the industry sector, which cannot be assessed as the sole metric to
show a compatible growth in terms of electricity consumption. Some sectors are highly sensitive
to electricity requirements while others are not. For instance, fertiliser, steel, textiles, and a
few others require more thermal energy than electrical energy. Moreover, MSME profiles differ
across the states, and their estimation are complex due to lack of data on energy use and type. As
technological improvements and digitalisation aid in lowering the production costs, especially by
reducing electricity consumption, electrification will play a crucial role in heavy industry. Thus, it
would be quite interesting to witness a shift towards electrification of industrial processes in the
future. We will discuss a few of these measures in the PEUM section.

Table 7: Industry intensive states consumption statistics by FY 2029-30

State Electricity Electricity Electricity Electricity % Demand

Consumption Consumption Intensity Intensity Contribution elasticity
(FY 2021-22) (FY 2029-30) (kWh/1000 Rs) (kWh/1000 Rs) in Industry (2021-30)
(Utilities and (Utilities and (FY2021-22) (FY 2029-30) GVA (FY
Non-Utilities Non-Utilities 2022-30)
Consumption) Consumption)

GJ 86 137 14.9 13.8 14.89% 0.89

OD 63 100 35.0 36.3 4.65% 1.03

MH 60 82 11.3 12.2 10.12% 1.31

TN 45 66 10.5 9.0 10.98% 0.76

RJ 27 43 15.9 20.3 3.17% 1.94

CG 28 39 22.6 18.0 3.23% 0.64

AP 27 36 16.1 14.7 3.72% 0.81

HR 20 34 12.5 12.9 3.99% 1.05

26 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

Industrial captive forecast
In India, the captive electricity consumption accounts for 32-38 percent of the total industrial electricity
consumption, as discussed previously. Based on the econometric projections, it has been observed
that by 2030 the captive electricity consumption will be 250-269 TWh, while the utility consumption
will be 553-597 TWh. Although, the captive share is expected to decrease in the coming years, but
our econometric forecasts are in line with the existing trend. The reason for this is twofold, first, the
forecasts with a shorter temporal horizon does not lead to a substantial change in the macroeconomic
parameters. Second, any new policy regime can provide a shift in captive consumption only in the
medium term, and therefore the current captive share in total consumption remains fairly consistent
with past captive shares.

Residential Sector
Between 2015 to 2022, the residential electricity consumption grew at a rate of 6.1 percent (fastest
amongst all the sectors), while GDP per capita increased at 5.6 percent (The World Bank, 2023) in
this period. Along with this, the sector accounted for nearly 30-32 percent of the total electricity
consumption suggesting an emerging demand for residential appliances driven by rising consumption
expenditure budgets in Indian households during the period. It is further anticipated that the rising
electricity demand will continue to surge in the coming decade due to the expected two-fold (United
Nations, 2018b) increase in urbanisation rate by 2030 resulting in higher residential consumption
demands and an increase in cooling demand for mitigating heat stress in South Asian emerging
economies, which is unprecedented and may escalate domestic air conditioning requirements.

In Table 8, we present the residential electricity demand statistics till date and divide the residential
population on the basis of urban and rural demography to carry out the econometric forecasts. Based
on the historical data, it has been observed that the electricity consumption is correlated with the GDP
per capita with an R2 value of 0.96 and urban population with an R2 value of 0.92.

Table 8: Residential Sector Statistics in India

Growth during
Parameters FY 2015-16 FY 2021-22
this period

Electricity Consumption (TWh) 239 341 6.1%

GDP per capita (PPP) (Constant)

1732 2277 4.7%
(2011-12)

Correlation of electricity consumption

0.96
to GDP per capita (R2)

Correlation to Urban Population 0.92

Source: (ICED, 2023), (RBI, 2023a)

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 27

Econometric projections for residential electricity demand
The residential electricity demand in the ER-CTS and ER-HGR is anticipated to reach 581 TWh and 575
TWh, respectively. Also, the aggregated electricity consumption in the sector is expected to increase by
5.9- 6.6 percent by 2030 in comparison to the pre-pandemic growth of nearly 6.1 percent. The recovery
from the pandemic resulted in a marginally slower demand in few sectors barring the residential sector.
However, it is interesting to notice that the effect remains short lived because of vigorous growth
in electricity consumption during the second half of the decade with extensive economic growth
domestically and export led policies.

From the current level of 179 kWh/capita, the residential electricity consumption is expected to
increase almost two-fold to 347-374 kWh/capita. While the empirical evidence indicates that cooling
will majorly dominate the residential electricity demand in the coming decade, we will comprehensively
examine how various electricity demand sub-categories are expected to contribute to the existing
share of electricity consumption mix in the residential sector in the upcoming sections.

700

600
Electricity Consumption (TWh)

500

Projections
400

300

200

100

Historical ER-CTS ER-HGR

Figure 10 : Residential Electricity consumption in ER-CTS and ER-HGR by FY 2029-30

28 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 Exhibit 4: How intensive are the top residential electricity consuming states in
terms of per capita demand?
In Table 9, we compare the top eight residential electricity consumption states based on a
number of key parameters. Several critical insights emerge on comparing the consumption
based on absolute value and consumption per capita for the years 2021 and 2030. Firstly, we
observe that these eight states account for 59 percent of the total electricity consumption in
the residential sector with Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra constituting a third
of this consumption. Secondly, the residential consumption trend is similar to the current
level, however, it is not uniform across the states. For Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Maharashra the
residential electricity per capita consumptions are higher than their counterparts, moreover,
as compared to the national average the GDP per capita is also higher for these four states
(a comprehensive analysis of GDP per capita and residential electricity consumption per capita
shows an R2 correlation of 0.733, suggesting a strong correlation between both). Owing to
the rising urbanisation rate by 2030, it is expected that these states will further intensify their
residential electricity consumption in absolute terms as well as on a per capita basis.

Table 9: High Residential Electricity Consuming states statistics by FY 2029-30

Domestic Consumption per capita

Electricity Consumption (GWh)
(kWh/capita)
State
FY 2029-30 FY 2029-30 FY 2029-30 FY 2029-30
FY 2021-22 FY 2021-22
(BAU) (HGR) (BAU) (HGR)

UP 44.5 76.4 81.1 191 301 324

TN 34.0 55.0 58.4 443 705 878

MH 30.7 49.0 52.0 245 569 667

MP 17.3 29.7 31.5 202 319 339

BR 17.0 29.1 30.9 136 209 304

WB 18.2 25.8 27.4 185 254 307

DL 16.5 25.3 26.9 786 1050 1241

PB 14.8 24.5 26.0 488 567 612

Source: Author's Analysis

Aggregation and Key highlights of the electricity demand as per the econometric forecasts
In this section, we summarise the insights derived from the econometric forecasts discussed
comprehensively in the previous sections. Table 10 outlines the electricity consumption for agriculture,
services, industry and residential sectors. It also mentions the transport and railways electricity

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 29

consumptions for ease of overall estimation, although they have only been forecasted through end
use methodology. Also, please note that the PEUM section will discuss the electricity consumption
from agricultural pumping, solar rooftops, fleet electrification, green hydrogen in heavy industry etc
and an aggregate of the estimation of total ex-bus electricity requirement will be presented at the end
of this report.

Table 10: Key Summary results from Econometric forecasting scenarios (All values in TWh)

ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sectors FY 2021-22
FY 2026-27 FY 2029-30 FY 2026-27 FY 2029-30

Industrial 556 695 804 729 867

Services 171 233 281 250 314

Residential 339 455 541 472 575

Agriculture 228 292 339 305 364

Transport* 0 15 61 18 73

Railways* 22 31 34 31 34

Total Consumption 1316 1721 2060 1805 2227

*The projections for transport and railway consumption are discussed in transport section

According to the table 10, the total electricity consumption (which includes transport and railways
sectors) in the ER-CTS and ER-HGR is expected to increase to 2060 and 2227 TWh, respectively, by 2030.
While the industrial, commercial and agriculture consumptions collectively occupy nearly 70 percent
of the share, the residential consumption account for a quarter of the total electricity consumption.

30 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 4 DEMAND PROJECTIONS USING
PARTIAL END USE METHOD
T he previous sections have delved into scenarios and results emerging out of the econometric
regression methodology. Although macroeconomic parameters allow us to project electricity
demand by correlation with various activity variables in midterm, however it is important to acknowledge
dynamic nature of demand structure, technological improvement, and system efficiency within the
Indian economy. These changes have been rapidly observed due to policy push for electrifying end
uses. Consequently, it is important to examine this growth through an end use approach. This allows
us to forecast electricity demand in future through a lens of changing technological landscape and
policy changes. This section focuses on end use projections to next decade considering underlying
sections discussed earlier along with new demand drivers like green hydrogen and EV sales.

Agriculture Sector
With a 4.3 percent growth, the agriculture sector’s share in the electricity consumption has been
relatively slower than other sectors, nevertheless, by showing a 5.2 percent increase over the past
couple of years, it was the only sector next to residential to witness a growth during the COVID wave.
This can be attributed to reverse migration as a result of COVID and revival of agricultural activities in
rural India. It is to be noted that, since 1990, the agricultural workforce has decreased significantly
from 70 percent to 40 percent owing to a substantial shift of the workforce to services and industry
sectors. In the past decade, the agriculture sector has largely relied on the southwest monsoon for
cultivation of major kharif crops but in order to provide perennial supply of food, irrigation became
increasingly important. As of 2021, the net irrigated area (total area under cultivation irrigated once in
a year) makes up 49 percent of the sown area, of which 60 percent relies on groundwater pumping,
and the remainder on canal irrigation (Union Budget, 2022).

Figure 11(a) and (b) show the corresponding growth in parameters related to agricultural production
during FY 2015-16 and FY 2019-20. The period is marked by a significant growth in agricultural
production. This could be understood by two facts. First, with access to groundwater irrigation, area
under irrigation as a share of total sown area increased tremendously. Second, with higher yield variety
seeds and irrigation, cropping season extended. Figure 11(b), shows an R2 correlation of 0.89 between
gross irrigated area and pump sets energised during the last decade. This is an important metric to
gauge, since gross irrigated area indicates how many times that area has been sown throughout the
year. A surge of 14 percent is observed in India’s cropping intensity, which represents a slight increase
over the previous decade. This is anticipated to continue growing faster in the coming decade, for
ensuring India’s food security and boosting exports of foodgrains. In the upcoming subsection, we
will discuss how the cropping intensity is bound to grow through 2030 and how this will impact the
electricity requirements for irrigation.

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 31

 24
1.2
25

1.18
22

1.16 R² = 0.8896
R² = 0.8896
20
20
1.14

Pupmsets Energised (Millions)

Index (Value for 2015-16 is 1)

Pupmsets Energised (Millions)

1.12
18
15
1.1

1.08 16

10
1.06
14
1.04

5 12
1.02

1
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 10
0 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
(a)
600 700 Irrigated
Gross 800Area ('000
900
hectares)1000 1100
Gross Irrigated Area Total Foodgrain Produc�on Gross Irrigated Area ('000 hectares)
Pumpsets energized (b)

Figure 11: (a) Index of Agricultural Statistics, (b) Correlation between pump sets energised and gross irrigated area
(from 2005 to 2020)

Methodology for agriculture sector

In the previous paragraph, we have discussed that the number of pump sets energised in the last
decade has increased significantly and is strongly correlated with gross irrigated area. This underlines
the dependence on irrigation to maintain continuous agricultural production throughout the year.
As seen in figure 11(a), a strong correlation could be gauged between electricity consumption and
associated parameters. Electricity consumption has a R2 correlation of 0.953 in case of pump sets
energised and an 0.934 in case of gross irrigated area.

Thus, to forecast the future growth of electricity consumption, we estimate the new Electric pump
sets by 2030. We estimate the growth in gross irrigated area based on rise in cropping intensity by
2030, which assumes an average growth of foodgrain production in India. Accordingly, we bifurcate the
irrigation pump sets based on their usage capacity, efficiency, and type. It is seen that the pump sets
(~70 percent) are generally used during the kharif and rabi seasons with typically lower usage hours
of 0-200 hours (DoWR, RD & GR, 2017). Furthermore, 65 percent of the total pump sets are sized
between 5 to 7.5 hp while a few (5 percent) are limited to 20 hp and above (Shakti Foundation, 2018).
However, we adjust the number of usage hours to consider a moderate growth due to groundwater
depletion. We aggregate the total Electricity consumption for all the pump sets energized.

32 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

Partial end use projections for agriculture electricity demand
Agricultural electricity consumption is expected to rise from 295 to 334 TWh (net electricity
consumption considering decentralised solar pumping adoption), entailing an overall growth of 6.45
percent over the current electricity consumption. During the period of 2020-2030, the total stock of
pump sets is expected to reach 33-35 million, with an overall growth rate of 4-4.8 percent. This, in turn
would improve the cropping intensity to 1.6-1.62 by 2030, which is at 1.47 at present. Therefore, it is
anticipated that by 2030 the solar pump sets will constitute 11 percent of the total stock, in line with
the ambitious target set under the PM KUSUM scheme to broaden the scope of solar pumping.

Table 11: Agricultural Gross and Net Electricity consumption by FY 2029-30

Gross Net Total Solar Pump Sets

Cropping
Scenario Year Consumption Consumption Pumps Energised
Intensity
(TWh) (TWh) (Millions) (Millions)

FY 2024-25 269 250 1.5 27.8 1.53

PE_CTS
FY 2029-30 332 295 3.5 33.5 1.60

FY 2024-25 312 290 1.9 28.4 1.55

PE_HGR
FY 2029-30 376 335 3.7 34.2 1.62

Services Sector
Over the past few years (from 2015 to 2022), the services sector has contributed to nearly 16 percent
of the total electricity consumption, with consumption growing at three percent over its GVA which
grew at two percentage points higher. In addition, the air-conditioned commercial spaces contributed
around 26 percent in the services sector, which is expected to further increase to 43 percent by
2030. However, the energy intensity has been reducing in the sector proportionately, as a result of
policy mandates set forth by the BEE’s Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) to achieve energy
efficiency performance standards in commercial building design and space cooling requirements.

As of 2017, the country’s total floor space area for commercial buildings was 1096 million square metres
(Kumar, 2018). In the Indian context, however, subclassification of commercial buildings based on their
type and use is limited, as commercial buildings are usually benchmarked based on their connected loads.
Thus, benchmarking electricity consumption becomes challenging across various sub-sectors. Therefore,
the lack of an existing database presents a trivial setback in estimating India’s electricity consumption.

Methodology for service sector

To estimate the current and future stock of buildings by their end use, we have adopted the
methodology and base year data (2017) for the classification of commercial building end uses based
on the comprehensive study (Kumar, 2018). Commercial spaces are sub-categorised as hospital,
hotel, retail, office, educational, assembly and transit, while the residual floor space is considered as
a separate non-specified category, even though it represents a marginal representation in the total

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 33

stock. The growth in floor space areas is forecasted in each of the building categories up to 2030
in accordance with their historical shares and future growth trends. This is illustrated in Figure 12.
Given the higher share of growth among the commercial spaces over the last five years, finance, retail
and office spaces are considered to have a higher precedence in growth rate. By 2030, the total air-
conditioned space in each category is expected to exponentially increase based on growth till date.
The Energy Performance Index (EPI) benchmarks for each of building category are derived from BEE
standards and existing literature. EPI serves as an important indicator since different building stock has
varying levels of energy consumption depending on their cooling, appliance and lighting requirements.

1800

1600

225
1400
216

211
198
1200
313 323

293
Million sq km

1000 187 282

394 401
800 199
357
340
600
277

365 372
400
315 331
262
200
130 150 135 153
91
69 89 103 93 105
0
2016-17 2026-27 2029-30 2026-27 2029-30
PE-CTS PE-HGR

Hospital Hotel Retail Office Building Educa�onal Assembly Transit

Figure 12: Commercial floor space area projections by FY 2029-30

Partial end use projections for services electricity demand

As per our end use projections, electricity consumption for the commercial buildings is expected
to increase to 263-305 TWh by 2030 and the share of air-conditioned spaces in the total services
electricity consumption is anticipated to rise from 60 percent in 2017 to 76 percent in 2030 in both
PE-CTS and PE-HGR, as shown in Figure 13. Furthermore, office space, retail and educational buildings
continue to account for 75 percent of total electricity consumption.

34 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 300

240

202
200
Electricity Consump�on (TWh)

168
158

100
76 76
61 65
55 57
49 49

0
HVAC Non HVAC HVAC Non HVAC
PE-CTS PE-HGR

2016-17 2026-27 2029-30

Figure 13: Electricity consumption projections by FY 2029-30 in Services Sector

Industrial Sector
In India, the industrial electricity consumption occupies substantial share only next to residential sector,
however it has a contribution both in terms of utilities and non-utilities demand in order to meet
the demand for industrial production in a reliable manner. In the previous section on econometric
projections, we comprehensively assessed the captive demand which represents almost 30-32
percent of the total electricity demand. Moreover, the heavy industries together with MSME have
experienced a robust growth in recent years, through export led policies and push for indigenous
manufacturing. Thus, the sentiments for energy growth in industry remains extremely positive. Several
policy interventions supported by the BEE’s Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme have resulted
in significant energy savings. As part of the PAT scheme, specific energy consumption targets are
established for heavy to medium industries, and the progress is monitored every five years. By doing
so, industries are encouraged to exceed their goals and sell those credits as Energy Saving Certificates
(ESCerts). Table 12 provides an overview of industrial production by major Indian industries in FY 2019-
20 and their share of value addition to the industrial sector.

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 35

Table 12: Industrial Production and outlook statistics

Total Production % contribution in

Total Production
Sector target (FY 2029-30) the total industrial
(FY 2019-20) (MT)
(MT) GVA

Iron and Steel 96 255 13%

Cement 299 600 9%

Aluminium 4.02 10 14%

Olefins (Petrochemicals) 11.8 NA 6%*

Chlor-Alkali 3.5 NA 7%#

Pulp and paper 23 NA 2%

Fertilizer 38 NA 4%
Source: India KLEMS, * All Petrochemicals, #All Chemicals

Exhibit 5: Robust policies targets for driving industrial production by 2030

Indian exports are dominated by steel and heavy engineering goods sector, ranking among the top
five nations across the globe. To indigenise the industrial value chain and further boost exports,
the government has set ambitious industrial production targets which are determined by policy
mandates and long-term vision plans from various ministries. As part of its 2030 (Ministry of Steel,
2020) steel production target, the Ministry of Steel is aiming to increase capacity to produce 255
million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of steel from the current 114 MT of finished steel production
and to increase the per capita consumption of steel to 160 kg from 65 kg at present, which is
fairly low than the current global averages. Moreover, the ministry is also exploring the potential
of using green hydrogen to decarbonise the hard-to-abate steel sector. Similarly, the fertiliser
sector has set a target to be self-sufficient by 2025 and export-dominated by 2030, with a two
fold increase resulting from a strong policy push and significant boost in agricultural production
(PIB, 2022c). The aluminium production is expected to rise threefold by 2030 to 10 MTPA with
a push towards exports and domestic consumption (United News of India, 2019). On the similar
lines, the cement industry is anticipating a rise to 600 MTPA by 2030 due to strong signals from
the real estate sector and a surge in commercial building spaces. Therefore, it is expected that
such policy-based targets will provide accountability for heavy industry decarbonisation and
boost capital investments.

36 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

Methodology for industry sector
The estimation of industrial electricity demand on the basis of its end use approach is complex.
Although electricity consumption in energy intensive industries can be assessed by analysing the
industrial output, however, estimating non-PAT sectors (which contribute ~60 percent to total industrial
electricity consumption) is more challenging since the data for end use production and electricity
consumption are unavailable.

By adopting a hybrid approach (policy-based and growth-based) to assess industrial production, we

have estimated industrial electricity consumption based on the end use methodology. This is due to a
lack of policy-based targets for 2030 in the mid-term for certain industries, such as cement, aluminium
and steel. Those sectors that do not have policy mandates their industrial production is assessed by
correlation to sub-sectors’ value added to 2030 (RBI, 2022). This approach is especially relevant to
industries such as chloralkali, fertilisers, petrochemicals and pulp and paper.

The residual (non-PAT) industrial consumption of industries that are non-specified, i.e. sectors that are
not covered by the PAT scheme, is estimated based on the historical consumption share. We cover the
same sectors for assessment and estimate the residual demand.

The PE-CTS and PE-HGR scenarios assume a similar level of material and energy intensity but the
electricity consumption is assessed based on the change in industrial production in these scenarios.
Since, the energy intensive industries are efficient and comply with global specific energy consumption
(SEC) standards, there is a limited scope for improving energy efficiency in these industries. Although
the energy efficiency potential exists for MSME and non-PAT sectors, estimation of the same is
a challenge and therefore, we have not considered further energy efficiency improvements in the
overall industrial sector. The role of energy efficiency and potential savings are, however, discussed in
in residential sectors.

The SEC for each of the processes in the sub-sectors mentioned above is derived from multiple
case studies, BEE Monitoring and Verification documents, secondary literature and expert opinions.
Furthermore, we examine recent policy mandates relating to fuel switching, including the use of green
hydrogen in the fertiliser and steel industries, along with the potential for deep electrification.

Partial end use projections for industrial electricity demand

The electricity consumption in FY 2026-27 and FY 2029-30, separated by PAT and non-PAT consumption
is shown in Figure 14, indicating moderate to high industrial production growth by 2030. In the
PE-CTS and PE-HGR, the electricity consumption is estimated to reach to 1058-1260 TWh (including
the captive demand) which is a threefold increase from the current level. Consequently, the industrial
electricity consumption is ~30-40 percent higher than the econometric projections. This increase in
the end-use estimation could be attributed to the uncertainty in the non-PAT sector, new demand from
the green hydrogen production, and unaccounted improvements in specific energy consumption by
2030, which remains factored out for the ER-CTS and ER-HGR scenarios.

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 37

 502
Non PAT
739
PE-HGR

321
PAT
557

453
Non PAT
WͲd^ 617 WͲd^
PE-CTS

ϮϬϭϵͲϮϬ ϱϯϯ 289 ϮϬϭϵͲϮϬ ϱϯϯ

PAT
/ƌŽŶĂŶĚ 466 /ƌŽŶĂŶĚ
^ƚĞĞů ϭϬϬ͘ϴϳ ^ƚĞĞů ϭϰϵ͘ϵϳ
ĞŵĞŶƚ ϭϭ͘ϰϯ
0 100 200 300 400 500 ĞŵĞŶƚ
600 ϭϴ͘ϰϵ
700 800

ůƵŵŝŶŝƵ Electricity Consump�on (TWh) ůƵŵŝŶŝƵ

ŵ Ϯϳ͘ϯϴ 2026-27 2029-30 ŵ ϰϯ͘ϭϱ
WĞƚƌŽĐŚĞ WĞƚƌŽĐŚĞ
ŵŝĐĂůƐ ϱϳ͘ϳϯ14: Industrial electricity projections in PAT, non-PAT and captive ŵŝĐĂůƐ
Figure ϳϬ͘ϳϴ
sectors by FY 2029-30
ŚůŽƌͲ ŚůŽƌͲ
ůŬĂůŝ ϰ͘ϯϲ in more detail the breakdown of electricity consumption
Figure 15 illustrates ůŬĂůŝ by 2030 as ϰ͘ϱϲ
compared to
WƵůƉĂŶĚ WƵůƉĂŶĚ
2020. While the PAT dominating electricity intensive sectors consume 53 percent of the total industrial
ƉĂƉĞƌ ϭϮ͘ϲϯ ƉĂƉĞƌ ϭϯ͘ϭϳ
electricity consumption, the non-PAT sectors account for 43 percent of this consumption. Further, there
&ĞƌƚŝůŝnjĞƌ ϳϬ͘ϲϱ &ĞƌƚŝůŝnjĞƌ ϳϲ͘ϲϵ
has been a shift
EŽŶͲWd in share within the PAT sectors with refineries, fertilisers
Ϯϲϰ͘ϳϱ
and steel having
EŽŶͲWd ϯϴϲ͘ϰϬ
a marginally
higher share due
ϮϬϮϵͲϯϬ ϭϬϴϯto an uptake of green hydrogen. Thus, between 2020 and 2030, these
ϮϬϮϵͲϯϬ ϭϮϵϲ three PAT
sectors’ electricity consumptions rise from 42 percent to 62 percent of the total PAT consumption.
Moreover, we consider a uniform share of captive consumption of total Industry electricity consumption
as per the current trend. However, we marginally adjust the captive share in electricity demand based
on an equal distribution of green hydrogen production through captive and utility-based electricity
sales. Further, a significant portion of non-PAT consumption share as shown in the figure is attributed
to the lack of sub sectoral data at the granular level.

(a) (b)
Figure 15: Share of Sub sectoral electricity consumption in Industries from FY 2019-20 to FY 2029-30 (a) PE-CTS (b) PE-HGR

38 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 Exhibit 6: Scope for Green Hydrogen in industrial decarbonisation.

With the launch of the National Green Hydrogen Mission, the mandate for production of 5 MTPA
green hydrogen by 2030 is a positive development for heavy industries (MNRE, 2022b). This
is especially crucial considering the existing demand for hydrogen predominantly within the
fertiliser, petrochemicals and the steel sector. Further, there is a push to replace natural gas with
green hydrogen in DRI-based steel production and urea-based Haber Bosch units, although at
present, there is no direct mandate for demand pull for green hydrogen in these industries. Using
the end use approach, we have estimated green hydrogen consumption based on two scenarios
- 3.5 and 5 MTPA. By 2030, the use of green hydrogen in urea production and petrochemicals is
40 percent each, while its usage in DRI-based steel production is 20 percent, resulting in a total
natural gas savings of 41-59 mmscmd and an incremental electricity demand of 175-250 TWh
owing to the replacement of electricity with natural gas. This incremental demand will likely be
captive in nature in order to avoid transmission charges that may be incurred if procured through
the state grid. Further, the current carbon intensity of the Indian grid would make utility scale
production of green hydrogen unsuitable. Our projections estimate the linear consumption of
green hydrogen to 2030 and its usage based on the manufacturing output in the PE-CTS and
PE-HGR. Consequently, PE-CTS and PE-HGR scenarios occupy a higher estimate of electricity
consumption as compared to ER scenarios. It would be worthwhile to observe the increase in
electricity consumption in the near-term with the rapid implementation of the mandates for
green hydrogen consumption.

Residential Sector
Residential sector is the second highest consumer of electricity in the country with a total electricity
consumption of 30-32 percent, which has grown at 6.1 percent CAGR from 2015 to 2022. Due to
rapid urbanisation of Indian cities coupled with an expected migration of approximately 120 million
population to cities by 2030, the electricity demand from residential sector is anticipated to rise at a
faster rate by the next decade (United Nations, 2018a).

Residential floorspace area is expected to increase by almost 30 percent from 2010 to 2030 with a total
area of 52,000 million sq.m (IEA, 2021). As per the data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme
Implementation (MoSPI) and the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), there is a significant increase
in the ownership of electricity intensive appliances, particularly for cooling. The domestic ownership
of air conditioners and air coolers raised from 17 percent in 2015 (MoHFW, 2017) to 25 percent in
2021 (MoHFW, 2022), with urban areas accounting for ~65 percent of this ownership. In addition, new
demands for electrical appliances such as refrigerators, electric cooking, and others has been emerging
as can be seen in Table 13 which illustrates the growth in residential appliance ownership from 2010
to 2020.

A comparison of domestic appliance penetration in urban and rural demography helps identify the past
trends as well as the future outlook in the coming decade. It is to be noted that the data for the past

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 39

decade is robustly sourced from NSSO and government surveys, however, the appliance details for FY
2019-20 have been derived from primary surveys conducted by various organisations and secondary
literature. With almost 100 percent coverage in both demographics, there has been a tremendous
growth in LED usage in the last decade primarily due to the Government of India’s UJALA scheme.
Moreover, air conditioning has experienced a significant uptake in the cooling segment, although its
penetration is uneven across the states with 74 percent in Delhi, 70 percent in Punjab and single
digit percentage use in eastern and north-eastern states. In the Indian context, usage of electricity for
heating purposes is very limited and it primarily pertains to water heating. The use of refrigerators,
televisions and washing machines in both rural and urban areas has increased substantially in the
recent years and the projections for 2030 foresee an enormous uptake in the electrical appliances
segment. Furthermore, with India’s rapid urbanisation, there is a boost in the use of mobile phones,
tablets and laptops with the penetration of mobile phone to the extent of 90-100 percent in both
urban and rural households.

Table 13: Rise in Appliance Ownership in Urban and rural geographies

Appliance Ownership Growth in appliance

(% of household) stock
Appliance
Sub-Category 10 Year 10 Year
category Rural Urban Rural Urban
CAGR CAGR
2010 2020 Rural Urban
Incandescent 61% 49% 100% 100% 7% 12%
Lighting CFL 15% 27% 100% 100% 25% 20%
LED 0% 0% 86% 91% 105% 121%
Fan 55% 91% 90% 97% 7% 4%
Space
Coolers 11% 11% 37% 51% 16% 23%
Cooling
Air Conditioning 1% 3% 3% 17% 22% 31%
Geyser 0% 3% 3% 8% 6% 15%
Heating
Space Heating 0% 1% 1% 9% 18% 32%
TV 42% 76% 58% 87% 5% 5%
Induction
0% 0% 3% 10% 4% 73%
cooking
Appliances Refrigerator 7% 39% 25% 63% 17% 9%
general
use Washing
2% 20% 9% 36% 21% 11%
Machine
PC/Laptop 1% 10% 4% 19% 21% 12%

Mobile Phone 51% 79% 92% 97% 8% 6%

Source: IRES, 2022

40 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

Methodology for residential sector
The ownership pattern of major electricity-intensive and non-electricity intensive appliances across
rural and urban demographics in India is used to estimate the electricity consumption in the residential
sector, as shown in Table 13. Given a shorter time horizon to 2030, we prefer to consider the current
stock of appliances still in operation rather than creating a stock model to identify the total number
appliance currently in use. We have further divided each of the appliance penetration in both rural and
urban segments, assuming a higher level of penetration as per the PE-HGR scenario.

We have applied a different method of estimation for air cooling, since it consumes significant amount
of electricity. The forecasting methodology and associated results are elaborated in Exhibit 7. The
datasets from NSSO, NFHS and primary surveys conducted by other institutions are used to estimate
the appliance penetration. In addition, we have incorporated the policy settings affecting appliance
penetration, rather than relying solely on projected growth of appliances. For example, we have
considered a complete phaseout of incandescent point lighting by 2030 as well as the minimum three-
star rating appliances for all demographic segments.

Moreover, we have calculated efficiency savings primarily in the cooling sector, which has a highly
energy-intensive nature, and thus, enable us to estimate potential savings in the residential sector.

Partial end use projections for residential electricity demand

The results of residential electricity demand for 2027 and 2030 in the baseline and high growth
scenarios are shown in Table 14. Based on the PEUM methodology, we have estimated electricity
demand to rise to 576-614 TWh in the PE-CTS and PE-HGR scenarios by 2030. The highest growth
in residential electricity demand is attributed to cooling, as discussed in previous subsections.
The estimated cooling demand by 2030 follows the similar demand trend as the residential sector and
is projected to reach 392-411 TWh in the PE-CTS and PE-HGR scenarios, accounting for the majority
(~66 percent) of total electricity demand.

Table 14: Electricity demand (TWh) in Residential sector by Appliance in FY 2026-27 and FY 2029-30

PE-CTS PE-HGR Share of Individual

Category
FY 2026-27 FY 2029-30 FY 2026-27 FY 2029-30 category

Lighting 34 34 35 35 6%

Space Cooling 266 379 279 411 66%

Heating 29 33 30 34 6%

Appliances 100 130 104 135 23%

Total 430 576 448 614 100%

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 41

 Exhibit 7: Residential cooling demand to dominate the residential electricity
consumption by 2030

With intense heat waves and rapid urbanisation, India’s cooling demand is rising exorbitantly.
As per the meta study of emerging economies, a rise in 100 Cooling Degree Day (CDD) would
result in an increase of 3-7 percent of air conditioning penetration in households, with most
Indian states vulnerable to extreme heat stress and therefore, their cooling demand is bound to
increase (Nature Communications, 2021). Compared to the world average of 252 kWh, India’s
per capita cooling demand in 2020 was 69 kWh, although residential cooling is anticipated to
grow to 280 million TR by next decade, representing 71 percent of total cooling demand for the
country (MoEFCC, 2021).

In our end use analysis, we have projected cooling demand based on the historic share of
air conditioner stocks and underlying forecasts for 2030. Using demography (both rural and
urban), volume (1,1.5 and 2 TR), type (window and split), energy consumption (3-star and
5-star) and hours of usage (considering impact of CDD increase to 2030 on hours of usage), we
determine the stock of air conditioning penetration. By 2030, the residential air conditioning
stock is estimated to rise to 216-243 million units in the PE-CTS and PE-HGR scenarios. This
comprises of 162-175 million units in urban and 54-68 million units in rural segment. The
total electricity consumption from air conditioning is estimated to increase to 262-308 TWh
in PE-CTS and PE-HGR scenarios by 2030. Further, we assess a high efficiency scenario in air
conditioning, to estimate potential savings in the residential sector. This assumes a higher share
of 5-star air conditioning penetration in the urban households. Thus, electricity consumption of
232-278 TWh is estimated from space cooling, thus yielding a 26-37 TWh energy savings from
the residential space cooling itself.

The outlook for rooftop solar (RTS) in India

India has installed 11.1 GW of solar rooftop capacity by November 2023, as against the target of
40 GW of solar rooftop installation by March 31, 2026 (revised from December 2022) (MNRE, 2022a).
This capacity addition is primarily concentrated in the commercial and industrial segment (with 78
percent share), while the penetration of solar into the residential segment so far is limited. Nevertheless,
the government is promoting reforms in terms of extending the solar rooftop programme with upfront
capital subsidies. Consequently, considering the current growth in solar rooftop and policy push, we
anticipate that by the end of 2030, the cumulative capacities in PE-CTS and PE-HGR scenarios will rise
to 16 GW and 24 GW, respectively. This corresponds to a growth rate of 9-14 percent by 2030. Thus,
the rooftop solar generation resulting from residential, industrial, and commercial sectors is estimated
to be in the range of 25 TWh to 38 TWh by 2030.

42 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

Transport Sector
Road transport currently contributes to 87 percent of the total passenger-based transport and 60
percent of the freight traffic movement (MoRTH, 2023a). Further, India’s road transport has contributed
to 68 percent of country’s total transport emissions in 2022 and 8 percent of the total CO2-eq emissions
(IEA, 2021). In terms of energy consumption, the transport sector has contributed to ~9 percent of the
final energy consumption in the country (MoSPI, 2023). With the increasing household consumption
expenditure, the share of private vehicles in the total fleet is growing rapidly (Kamboj, 2022). From
1990 to 2019, private ownership of vehicles (both 2-wheeler and 4-wheeler) has increased from 11
percent to 38 percent (MoRTH, 2021), albeit only 8 percent Indian households possess a car while
48 percent owns a 2-wheeler (NFHS, India, 2021). It is estimated that by the next decade, the uptake
of private vehicles will result in decrease in public transportation use. This indicates the importance
of electrification of private road transport to abate the CO2 emissions from the sector. The per capita
vehicle ownership from 2012 to current fiscal year is shown in Figure 16. It can be observed that the
growth of 2-wheelers in India is staggering, comparable to the current trend of developing economies
in the South and South East Asia. Despite a growth in the number of privately owned cars, ownership
is still only a quarter of the average ownership rate in other developing economies.

400 100%

14% 13% 14%

349

48 80%
300
Registered Vehicles (Millions)

230
Registered Vehicles (%)

60%

30
200
176

24 40%
73% 73% 75%
261

100
169 20%
128

0 0%
2012-13 2015-16 2021-22 2012-13 2015-16 2021-22
2 Wheeler Buses Trucks 3 Wheeler 2 Wheeler Buses Trucks
Others 4 Wheeler Total 3 Wheeler Others 4 Wheeler

(a) (b)

Figure 16: Total Registered Vehicles (a) in Millions, (b) Percentage;

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 43

 35 200

180
30
160

Vehicles per 1000 People (2 Wheelers)

25 140
Vehicles per 1000 People

120
20
100
15
80

10 60

40
5
20

0 0
2012-13 2015-16 2021-22
(in
secondary
Buses Trucks 3 Wheeler Others 4 Wheeler_commercial 4 Wheeler_private 2 Wheeler axis)

Figure 16: (c) Vehicle Motorization Index (Vehicles/1000 people)

With the government focussing on the uptake of electric vehicles through upfront subsidies on capital
costs, it is imperative to understand the outlook for fleet electrification by 2030 for both electrified
fleet as well as the overall growth in road transport. As a result, helping us understand the role of EVs
in overall national electricity demand by 2030.

Methodology for estimation of category-wise vehicle registrations till 2030

Passenger road transport has a diverse segment base with ownership characteristics varying across the
fleets. To forecast the registration of transport vehicles until 2030, we assess the historical ownership
patterns, if any, over the last decade, as a result of shifts from public to private transport. Relying solely
on econometric or end use approach could potentially deviate the forecasts, thus, we employ the
partial end-use method to forecast the increase in the number of vehicles of respective categories.
Using the data from the latest available repository from MORTH yearbook (MoRTH, 2018) and VAHAN
dashboard (MoRTH, 2023b), we projected the new vehicle registration (segment-wise) econometrically
based on GDP per capita and GVA from the transport sector. We further mapped the current stock
of electric vehicles added till date from the same database and captured the projected ambitious
fleet electrification targets as per the existing policy announcements. For estimating the electrification
requirement from EVs, we derive a couple of scenarios that allow us to foresee an outlook for fleet
electrification rather than a single deterministic number for 2030. The PE-CTS considers scenarios
derived from a previous study (NITI Aayog & Rocky Mountain Institute, 2019), whereas PE-HGR takes
into account a higher growth in fleet electrification. Table 15 summarises the category-wise penetration
targets considered by 2030.

44 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 Table 15: EV Penetration of new sales in the scenarios considered

Vehicle Category PE-CTS PE-HGR

2-wheeler 80% 90%
3-wheeler 80% 100%
Public Buses 40% 50%
Commercial 4-wheeler 70% 80%
Private 4-wheeler 30% 40%

Exhibit 8: Recent trends in adoption of EV

There is a boost in EV adoption in the Indian market since the policy interventions and regulatory
frameworks help overcome various hurdles that includes exemption from EV registration tax,
income tax rebate, capital subsidy etc. From 2012 to 2022, the overall EV fleet grew by 86 percent
CAGR, bringing its total stock to ~14 lakh, from a mere 0.6 lakh prior to the commencement of
the FAME scheme (MoRTH, 2023b). However, the adoption of private versus commercial vehicles
exhibits a sharp difference. The 3-wheelers and 2-wheelers segment comfortably picked up in the
market owing to the last mile connectivity they provide. Both fleets represent ~60 percent of the
new EV sale, as seen in Figure 17. In the current FY, the 2-wheelers are gaining momentum in
terms of higher share in registrations while the private 4-wheelers have seen a growth only in
recent years and their uptake continues to remain slow, primarily due to range anxiety, limited
charging infrastructure, limited supply options as well as higher capital costs. Therefore, per capita
ownership of EV remains discrete, as depicted in Figure 17.

Na�onal EV registra�on �ll November Share of EV sale in total sale of vehicle

2023 (in Thousands) in individual segment
4000 60%

3384 52%
3500 50%
169
3000
4 Wheeler & 40%
others
2500 1511
30%
3 Wheeler
2000
20%
1500
2 Wheeler
10%
1000
1704 5% 5%
Total 0%
500 1%
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23

0 2 Wheeler 3 Wheeler 4 wheeler and others Total

(a) (b)
Figure 17. (a) Total EV Registrations, (b) Share of EV in total Vehicle segments

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 45

Partial end use projections for transport electricity demand
Figure 18 shows the growth in overall road-based transport registrations by 2030. India’s total road-
based transport registrations are expected to increase from 349 million in 2022 to 521-538 million by
2030 in the PE-CTS and PE-HGR scenarios, indicating an annual increase of 4.8 percent CAGR over the
current registrations. By 2030, private 4-wheelers share is expected to reach 73-81 million, a growth
of over ~5 percent CAGR from the current fiscal. However, we have observed that the share of public
transport remains fairly constant, since the boost in public buses at a rate of 4 percent is rather slow,
thus their share isn’t exorbitant. India has one of the lowest bus availability rates at 1.7 per 1000
people, and our forecast suggests a marginal rise of only 2.1-2.3 bus/1000 person by 2030. Our model
does not take behavioural changes into account in terms of uptake of new fleets and preference to
public transport, but there might be a possibility of higher uptake of public transport than the current
growth rate. However, the 4-wheeler ownership is expected to reach 51-57 vehicles per 1000 capita by
2030, a twofold rise from the current rate.

600 600

500 500 65
63

59 59
Registered Vehicles (Millions)

Registered Vehicles (Millions)

400
400

48
300 48
300

200 398
348 200 404
351
261
100 261
100

0
2021-22 2026-27 2029-30 0
2021-22 2026-27 2029-30

2 Wheeler Buses Trucks 3 Wheeler Others 4 Wheeler 2 Wheeler Buses Trucks 3 Wheeler Others 4 Wheeler

(a) (b)

Fig 18: Total Vehicles Registered till FY 2029-30 (a) PE-CTS and (b) PE-HGR

EV penetration and electrification requirement

By 2030, the total electric vehicles in India are estimated to rise to 61-66 million in PE-CTS and PE-HGR
scenarios, with 2-wheelers estimated to largely dominate, although a higher uptake is expected for
4-wheelers, only after 2025. This underpins the reduction in capital costs and high growth in charging
infrastructure deployment across cities and proposed major highways. Figure 19 shows the EV stock
by 2025 and 2030 according to fleet type. A huge growth is anticipated in the 2-wheeler segment

46 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

driven by both private and commercial users. As a result of the last mile delivery services, 2-wheelers
sales have skyrocketed at ~135 percent growth over the last five years. Decent growth is predicted
in E-buses as well. Due to the limited coverage of policy mandates for private and intercity electric
buses in literature, we are only considering intra-city electric buses in our modelling. This further
suggests an unorganised nature of the transport sector and unclear policy mandates beyond Faster
Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles in India (FAME India), which mainly focuses
on public buses.

80

70 3
3

60
3
3
Registered EVs (Millions)

50

40

65
30
55 1
2
1
2
20

24
10 20

0
2026-27 2029-30 2026-27 2029-30
PE-CTS PE-HGR

2 Wheeler 3 Wheeler Buses 4 Wheeler

Figure 19: Category wise registered EVs by FY 2029-30

Electricity consumption estimates

In this subsection, we discuss the forecasted growth in electricity consumption from the road transport
sector by 2030. According to our estimate, the total electricity consumption will rise to 57-68 TWh by
2030 and electric buses and 2-wheelers segments are estimated to consume the majority of electricity.
These segments may also witness highest growth during the decadal period. It is likely that the electric
buses would avail highest instantaneous power demand for opportunity charging at the depot,
hinting towards higher peak demand, especially during daytime. Therefore, measures such as tariff
rationalisation, optimised depot-based charging stations could result in demand response measures as
well as higher utilisation of distributed solar for charging during the daytime.

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 47

 80

10
Electricity Consumption (TWh)

60
8

34
40
29

7
20 6

22
18

0 1
2021-22 2029-30 2029-30
BAU HGR
2 Wheelers 3 Wheelers Buses 4 Wheelers Others

(2021-22 Consumption is a calculated consumption and not actual value)

Figure 20: Electricity Consumption by EVs in PE-CTS and PE-HGR by FY 2029-30

Railways Sector
Indian Railways has the largest rail network in Asia, carrying both passenger as well as freight traffic
under the purview of single management control. The network expanded vigorously from 26,125route
kilometre (RKM) in 2016 to 64,689 RKM in FY 2021-22 at 15 percent CAGR (Ministry of Railways,
2021). Further, over the past 20 years, the electrification of railways significantly increased from just
24 percent in 2000 to 66 percent by 2021. The Indian railways has set an ambitious plan to electrify the
traction segment completely by 2025 and become net-zero by 2030 (PIB, 2022a).

Between year 2000 and2020, the share of freight traffic in railways has reduced significantly from 45
percent to 31 percent. Firstly, this is because of the higher freight rates in Indian railways, which are
among the highest in the world (Brookings India, 2018). The higher freight hauling charges to cross
subsidise the railway passenger segment is depreciating the freight traffic in the railways. Secondly,
due to the very long turn-around times, as both the freight and passenger trains run on the same track.
In projecting the RKM and electricity consumption, we have taken into account the current measures
that the government is focussing on traction as well as non-traction segment. We have calculated the
kWh consumption per RKM for the traction load and estimate the same trend for the future. Given the
higher share of traction load, the share of electricity consumption has remained particularly consistent
between traction and non-traction segments.

48 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 40

35

5
5
4
30
4

25 4
Electricity Consumption (TWh)

20 3

3
3

2
2
15 3 3 3 3 2 30
3 29
3 2 29
3 27
2
2 25
2 23
2
2 22
10 20
19
17 17
15 15
14 14 14 14 14 14
13 13
12 12
10 11
5 10 10

0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Traction Non-Traction (Buildings, Administrative etc)

Figure 21: Electricity Consumption in Railways Traction and Non-traction segment (PE-CTS) by FY 2029-30

End use projections for railways electricity demand

Based on our end-use projections, we have indicated the total route kilometre (RKM) and electricity
consumption until FY 2029-30. The total RKM is estimated to reach 74,310 RKM, a 0.6 percent per
year increase from the current level. Furthermore, as compared to 2020, the electricity consumption
is estimated to rise just about twofold, that is, 31-34 TWh by 2030. The percentage share contributed
by traction and non-traction segments for electricity consumption by the Indian Railways is ~85-87
percent and 13-16 percent, respectively.

Aggregation and Key highlights of the electricity demand as per the partial End Use method
In this section, we summarise the key results emerging from the partial end use forecasts discussed
comprehensively in the previous sections. Table 16 outlines the electricity consumption for agriculture,
services, industry, residential sectors and also including Railways and Road Transport. Overall, by 2030,
the total consumption is estimated to reach 2370-2723 TWh. Most noteworthy amongst all Electricity
demand driver is the industry which consumes ~42% of the total consumption, this additional driver
is driven by policy mandates on green hydrogen usage. Further, residential sector has a higher
consumption by the end of 2030, given a higher consumer appliance penetration together with newly
electrified segments in residential sector including cooking.

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 49

Table 16: Key Summary results from PEUM scenarios (all values in TWh)

PE-CTS PE-HGR
Sectors FY 2021-22
FY 2026-27 FY 2029-30 FY 2026-27 FY 2029-30

Industrial 556 742 1083 824 1296

Services 171 214 263 225 305

Residential 339 430 576 448 614

Agriculture 228 285 332 328 376

Transport 0 15 61 18 73

Railways 22 31 34 31 34

Total
1316 1716 2349 1873 2699
Consumption

Consolidated summary of electricity projections

This section concludes and draw inferences from the results of the Econometric and Partial End Use
scenarios. The insights from these scenarios will be further analysed for 2030. In addition, we have
attempted to segregate the total electricity consumption from ex-bus electricity demand requirement.
Table 17 illustrates the sectoral forecasts aggregated based on the two scenarios mentioned. As per
the ER and PE methodologies, by 2030, the electricity demand is expected to reach 2,060 to 2,227
TWh and 2,349-2,699 TWh, respectively. This demand is expected to grow at the rate of 6.1 percent to
6.8 percent as compared to a lower growth rate of 4.9 percent between 2015 and 2022 as a result of
the economic slowdown followed by pandemic restrictions.

We anticipate that the transmission and distribution losses are expected to reach 15 percent by 2030
due to the downward trajectory of 3.5-3 percent per year from the current level of ~19 percent. In
contrast, our wide range of ER and PE scenarios projects that the ex-bus electricity requirement is
expected to reach 2,039-2,191 TWh and 2,215-2,454 TWh by 2030.

50 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

Table 17: Consolidated results from Econometric and PEUM methodology (All values in TWh)

Vasudha Scenarios

ER-CTS ER-HGR PE-CTS PE-HGR

Sectors
FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
2026- 2029- 2026- 2029- 2026- 2029- 2026- 2029-
27 30 27 30 27 30 27 30
Gross Consumption including Captive (Utilities + Non-Utilities) - (A)

Industrial 695 804 729 867 742 1083 824 1296

Commercial 233 281 250 314 214 263 225 305

Residential 455 541 472 575 430 576 448 614

Agriculture 292 339 305 364 285 332 328 376

Transport 15 61 18 73 15 61 18 73

Railways 31 34 31 34 31 34 31 34

Total 1721 2060 1805 2227 1716 2349 1873 2699

Captive Consumption - (B)

Agriculture
27 36 31 42 27 36 31 42
Pumping
Solar Rooftop 19 25 28 38 19 25 28 38

Railways 15 17 15 17 15 17 15 17

Industry 192 250 202 270 262 390 312 518

Total Captive
254 329 277 367 324 468 386 616
Consumption

Net Consumption (Utility) (C) = (A-B)

Net
1467 1732 1528 1861 1393 1881 1487 2084
Consumption
T&D Losses
T&D
291 308 303 331 276 334 295 370
Losses (D)

Ex-bus Electricity Requirement (Utilities) (C+D)

Total Ex-bus
Electricity 1758 2039 1831 2191 1668 2215 1782 2454
Requirement

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 51

In Figure 22 compares the share of electricity demand in the CTS and HGR scenarios by FY 2026-
27 and FY 2029-30 along with their individual shares. According to our observations, the industrial
and residential sectors would likely to have a dominant share in the electricity demand, contributing
60-64 percent of the total consumption, similar to the current situation. Moreover, the partial end
use scenarios have significantly higher demand than the econometric scenarios due to two possible
reasons:

Firstly, the industrial demand increases substantially in partial end use scenarios as we anticipate a
shift in emerging technologies, particularly in energy intensive sectors (use of green ammonia in urea
production and green hydrogen in steel production) and a higher electrification of transport fleet across
light and heavy-duty segments. It is to be further noted that the usage of green hydrogen in industry
is distributed equally in utility sales as well as captive consumption. ER scenarios in contrast could not
capture the sectoral shift in the electricity consumption usage. Secondly, we observe an increase in
the residential electricity consumption, primarily related to residential air conditioning usage as well
as change in appliance ownership prevalent in urban households. Therefore, the residential sector in
end use scenarios has a marginally higher forecast. On the contrary, the agriculture forecasts in PE see
a marginal decline, due to efficiency improvement and adoption of decentralised solar pumping. The
decline can also be attributed to solar rooftop adoption targets by 2030 (mentioned in the previous
subsections) which is likely to result in a reduction of electricity demand by 25-38 TWh.

100%

90% 17% 14% 14%

16% 16%

80%

70% 25% 23%

26%
26% 26%
60%
11%
50% 11%
13%
14% 14%
40%

30%

46% 48%
20% 42% 39% 39%

10%

0%
ER-CTS ER-HGR PE-CTS PE-HGR
2021-22 2029-30

Industry Services Residential Agriculture Transport Railways

Figure 22: Comparison of Electricity consumption share by FY 2029-30 in Econometric and PEUM

52 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

How do electricity projections fare with the 20th Electric Power Survey (EPS)
In this section, we present the results from both our ER-CTS and ER-HGR scenarios for ex-bus electricity
demand requirements for FY 2036-37, along with comparing the consolidated results to the recently
released 20th Electric Power Survey (EPS). The survey, which is conducted by the Central Electricity
Authority (CEA) provides forecasts of India’s electricity demand over the medium to long-term.
Although this report is not intended to be benchmarking or comparing the results with those of the
central estimates, our forecasts can serve as extensions of the underlying range of future electricity
forecasts that can be utilised to provide an outlook for achieving India’s mid-term and long term
decarbonisation goals.

In order to forecast the electricity requirement to FY 2036-37, we extend our state level econometric
model to 2037 and add up the electricity requirement from new demand drivers such as EVs, railways
and green hydrogen. The results from both ER and PE scenarios are summarised in Table 18.

Table 18: Ex Bus Electricity Requirement (TWh) across FY 2026-27 to FY 2036-37

Vasudha Scenarios
Year CEA 20th EPS
ER-CTS ER-HGR PE-CTS PE-HGR
FY 2026-27 1758 1831 1668 1782 1907
FY 2029-30 2039 2191 2215 2454 2279
FY 2036-37 2936 3175 NA NA 3095

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 53

 CONCLUSION AND WAY FORWARD
The comprehensive analysis presented in this report highlights the critical importance of electricity
demand forecasting in shaping a resilient power system, especially in the context of India's dynamic
and evolving energy landscape. The projections indicate a substantial growth in electricity demand
over the next decade, with various sectors playing distinct roles in driving this surge.

The industrial sector emerges as a major contributor, with policies promoting fuel switching and
increased industrial production likely to propel a significant rise in electricity requirements. The
anticipated growth in steel production and the emphasis on green hydrogen further underscore the
need for a robust and adaptive power infrastructure.

Residential electricity demand is expected to witness a substantial increase, driven by factors such as
urbanization, rising heat stress, and a surge in electronic appliances. Notably, the surge in space cooling,
fuelled by a considerable increase in residential air conditioning units, highlights the importance of
addressing climate-related challenges in electricity planning.

The transport sector, both road and railways, is poised to undergo a transformative shift with
electrification initiatives. The projected rise in road transport registrations and the surge in private
ownership of four-wheelers emphasize the need for strategic planning to meet the evolving electricity
demands of this sector.

The services sector, driven by growth in commercial floor space and heightened air conditioning needs,
is expected to contribute significantly to the overall electricity demand. However, it is essential to note
the divergence in demand between air-conditioned and non-air-conditioned spaces within this sector.

The report acknowledges the challenges posed by the lack of comprehensive end-use demand data
in India. The wide range of outcomes resulting from different forecasting methodologies underscores
the importance of transparency and data dissemination at both state and national levels. Addressing
this data gap is crucial for enhancing the accuracy of future electricity forecasts and supporting optimal
planning to meet the nation's growing electricity requirements.

As India navigates the complexities of a post-pandemic economic recovery, electrification of the

transport sector, and ambitious manufacturing growth, strategic and adaptive planning becomes
imperative. The insights provided by this report serve as a valuable resource for policymakers, industry
stakeholders, and planners to develop robust strategies that ensure affordable, reliable, and sustainable
power for the nation's continued progress.

54 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 ANNEXURES
State-wise Sectoral Electricity Projection including Captive (GWh)

ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sector
2024-25 2026-27 2029-30 2024-25 2026-27 2029-30
Andhra Pradesh
Agriculture 13,369 13,987 14,909 14,856 15,372 16,180
Services 12,609 14,436 17,684 13,146 15,476 19,768
Industry 29,873 32,310 36,345 30,743 33,894 39,236
Residential 20,248 21,748 24,210 20,720 22,601 25,746
Transport 405 455 541 412 472 578
Railways 2,255 2,581 2,874 2,322 2,659 2,960
Total 78,757 85,517 96,563 82,199 90,473 1,04,468
Assam
Agriculture 43 43 43 59 63 69
Services 3,155 3,613 4,426 3,290 3,873 4,947
Industry 2,801 3,029 3,408 2,882 3,178 3,679
Residential 5,425 5,981 6,924 5,550 6,212 7,357
Transport 99 113 139 101 118 148
Railways - - - - - -
Total 11,523 12,779 14,939 11,882 13,444 16,200
Bihar
Agriculture 1,511 1,814 2,277 1,398 1,600 1,960
Services 4,445 5,089 6,234 4,634 5,456 6,969
Industry 4,408 4,953 5,899 4,534 5,191 6,359
Residential 20,783 23,794 29,149 21,252 24,697 30,939
Transport 383 439 538 390 455 574
Railways 2,039 2,335 2,599 2,100 2,405 2,677
Total 33,569 38,423 46,695 34,309 39,804 49,477

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 55

 ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sector
2024-25 2026-27 2029-30 2024-25 2026-27 2029-30

Chhattisgarh

Agriculture 6,642 7,161 8,002 6,899 7,630 8,873

Services 2,552 2,814 3,257 2,663 3,020 3,649

Industry 31,754 34,345 38,634 32,679 36,029 41,708

Residential 7,886 9,029 11,061 8,064 9,371 11,740

Transport 142 163 200 145 169 213

Railways 1,396 1,598 1,779 1,438 1,646 1,832

Total 50,372 55,110 62,933 51,888 57,865 68,014

Delhi

Agriculture 40 43 47 39 43 51

Services 9,088 10,020 11,599 9,483 10,756 12,993

Industry 3,522 3,809 4,284 3,624 3,996 4,625

Residential 19,372 21,572 25,347 19,816 22,402 26,926

Transport 375 421 501 382 437 536

Railways 312 358 398 322 368 410

Total 32,709 36,222 42,177 33,666 38,002 45,541

Goa

Agriculture 42 47 56 38 44 53

Services 716 820 1,004 747 879 1,123

Industry 2,398 2,593 2,917 2,467 2,720 3,149

Residential 1,439 1,557 1,751 1,473 1,617 1,862

Transport 27 28 30 28 29 32

Railways - - - - - -

Total 4,622 5,045 5,758 4,752 5,290 6,219

56 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sector
2024-25 2026-27 2029-30 2024-25 2026-27 2029-30

Gujarat

Agriculture 13,406 13,359 13,337 15,070 15,988 17,471

Services 8,811 9,530 10,720 9,198 10,237 12,021

Industry 1,02,162 1,14,790 1,36,716 1,05,081 1,20,307 1,47,382

Residential 19,082 20,838 23,780 19,524 21,648 25,276

Transport 391 448 549 399 465 586

Railways 992 1,135 1,264 1,021 1,169 1,302

Total 1,44,845 1,60,100 1,86,366 1,50,293 1,69,815 2,04,037

Haryana

Agriculture 10,715 10,997 11,428 10,769 12,028 14,197

Services 7,892 8,701 10,072 8,235 9,340 11,282

Industry 24,426 27,965 34,259 25,117 29,297 36,905

Residential 16,326 18,691 22,898 16,695 19,401 24,304

Transport 283 324 397 288 336 423

Railways 545 623 694 561 642 715

Total 60,185 67,302 79,747 61,664 71,043 87,826

Himachal Pradesh

Agriculture 74 78 83 87 88 90

Services 1,870 2,022 2,275 1,952 2,172 2,551

Industry 6,901 7,464 8,396 7,102 7,830 9,064

Residential 2,639 2,767 2,971 2,701 2,877 3,162

Transport 53 58 67 54 60 72

Railways - - - - - -

Total 11,537 12,389 13,793 11,896 13,028 14,939

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 57

 ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sector
2024-25 2026-27 2029-30 2024-25 2026-27 2029-30

Jammu and Kashmir

Agriculture 388 409 442 426 464 527

Services 3,708 4,246 5,201 3,866 4,552 5,814

Industry 1,650 1,889 2,314 1,696 1,978 2,492

Residential 6,839 7,977 10,049 6,992 8,277 10,660

Transport 52 58 68 53 60 73

Railways 32 37 41 33 38 42

Total 12,669 14,616 18,115 13,068 15,370 19,609

Jharkhand

Agriculture 324 380 478 218 250 306

Services 1,672 1,914 2,345 1,743 2,052 2,621

Industry 24,471 26,468 29,773 25,184 27,765 32,142

Residential 7,254 8,305 10,174 7,418 8,620 10,799

Transport 137 153 181 139 159 193

Railways 1,418 1,624 1,808 1,461 1,672 1,862

Total 35,276 38,844 44,758 36,163 40,518 47,922

Karnataka

Agriculture 24,955 26,267 28,342 25,071 27,406 31,324

Services 14,820 16,936 20,689 15,453 18,158 23,128

Industry 27,902 30,179 33,948 28,715 31,658 36,648

Residential 16,333 18,007 20,846 16,709 18,704 22,151

Transport 323 356 412 329 369 440

Railways 196 224 250 202 231 257

Total 84,530 91,969 1,04,486 86,479 96,527 1,13,948

58 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sector
2024-25 2026-27 2029-30 2024-25 2026-27 2029-30

Kerala

Agriculture 490 540 620 471 540 661

Services 6,836 7,681 9,149 7,131 8,240 10,237

Industry 6,285 6,539 6,940 6,472 6,866 7,503

Residential 14,757 16,270 18,834 15,097 16,899 20,013

Transport 263 279 305 268 290 326

Railways 457 524 583 471 539 601

Total 29,089 31,833 36,430 29,910 33,375 39,341

Madhya Pradesh

Agriculture 31,384 35,245 42,188 32,301 36,839 44,867

Services 8,895 10,184 12,476 9,275 10,919 13,946

Industry 20,779 23,347 27,807 21,372 24,469 29,976

Residential 21,188 24,258 29,717 21,667 25,178 31,542

Transport 430 492 603 438 511 643

Railways 3,129 3,582 3,988 3,222 3,689 4,107

Total 85,804 97,108 1,16,779 88,276 1,01,605 1,25,081

Maharashtra

Agriculture 36,583 38,419 41,194 44,412 50,847 62,290

Services 23,391 26,781 32,807 24,389 28,711 36,672

Industry 67,627 73,145 82,278 69,596 76,730 88,824

Residential 36,600 41,123 48,979 37,435 42,699 52,015

Transport 692 778 926 705 808 989

Railways 3,759 4,304 4,791 3,872 4,433 4,935

Total 1,68,652 1,84,549 2,10,975 1,80,409 2,04,227 2,45,726

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 59

 ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sector
2024-25 2026-27 2029-30 2024-25 2026-27 2029-30

Manipur

Agriculture 4 5 5 9 10 12

Services 241 271 323 252 291 361

Industry 38 43 51 40 45 55

Residential 537 571 626 550 594 666

Transport 10 12 14 10 12 15

Railways - - - - - -

Total 831 902 1,019 860 952 1,110

Meghalaya

Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0

Services 208 233 278 217 250 311

Industry 790 855 962 813 897 1,038

Residential 736 788 872 753 819 928

Transport 11 11 13 11 12 13

Railways - - - - - -

Total 1,745 1,888 2,124 1,795 1,978 2,290

Mizoram

Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0

Services 208 234 279 217 251 312

Industry 24 26 30 24 27 32

Residential 554 623 742 567 647 788

Transport 7 7 7 7 7 8

Railways - - - - - -

Total 794 891 1,059 816 933 1,141

60 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sector
2024-25 2026-27 2029-30 2024-25 2026-27 2029-30

Nagaland

Agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0

Services 302 346 424 315 371 474

Industry 50 57 70 51 60 76

Residential 469 508 572 480 528 608

Transport 9 10 11 9 10 11

Railways - - - - - -

Total 830 920 1,076 856 968 1,168

Odisha

Agriculture 849 1,001 1,246 957 1,096 1,343

Services 8,323 9,528 11,673 8,677 10,215 13,048

Industry 74,965 84,231 1,00,321 77,107 88,280 1,08,147

Residential 12,042 13,786 16,889 12,314 14,309 17,926

Transport 185 212 260 189 220 277

Railways 2,083 2,384 2,654 2,145 2,456 2,734

Total 98,447 1,11,144 1,33,043 1,01,389 1,16,577 1,43,475

Puducherry

Agriculture 66 68 71 67 71 78

Services 375 430 527 391 461 589

Industry 1,855 1,987 2,204 1,910 2,085 2,380

Residential 934 1,030 1,192 955 1,069 1,267

Transport 18 19 21 18 20 22

Railways - - - - - -

Total 3,249 3,534 4,014 3,342 3,707 4,335

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 61

 ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sector
2024-25 2026-27 2029-30 2024-25 2026-27 2029-30

Punjab

Agriculture 12,907 13,226 13,676 14,432 15,821 18,161

Services 7,387 8,300 9,886 7,705 8,904 11,062

Industry 25,189 27,245 30,647 25,923 28,580 33,085

Residential 17,866 20,264 24,478 18,272 21,037 25,988

Transport 302 314 334 308 327 358

Railways 365 418 465 376 430 479

Total 64,017 69,767 79,486 67,015 75,100 89,133

Rajasthan

Agriculture 38,209 44,605 55,965 35,302 40,417 49,512

Services 10,704 12,140 14,665 11,162 13,020 16,401

Industry 32,351 36,213 42,886 33,277 37,957 46,238

Residential 16,524 18,392 21,597 16,903 19,100 22,942

Transport 356 408 499 363 423 533

Railways 540 618 688 556 636 709

Total 98,684 1,12,376 1,36,300 97,563 1,11,553 1,36,335

Tamil Nadu

Agriculture 16,175 17,320 19,080 16,460 18,845 23,086

Services 18,244 20,499 24,415 19,030 21,991 27,319

Industry 52,222 57,246 65,703 53,732 60,032 70,894

Residential 40,694 45,897 54,974 41,621 47,652 58,375

Transport 704 762 857 718 792 916

Railways 1,373 1,572 1,750 1,415 1,620 1,803

Total 1,29,413 1,43,296 1,66,778 1,32,975 1,50,931 1,82,394

62 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sector
2024-25 2026-27 2029-30 2024-25 2026-27 2029-30

Telangana

Agriculture 27,206 29,360 32,732 26,868 30,551 37,043

Services 13,041 14,931 18,291 13,598 16,007 20,446

Industry 21,720 23,947 27,721 22,347 25,109 29,905

Residential 15,425 17,006 19,686 15,780 17,663 20,919

Transport 319 351 407 325 365 435

Railways 1,110 1,271 1,415 1,144 1,309 1,458

Total 78,822 86,866 1,00,252 80,061 91,005 1,10,205

Tripura

Agriculture 43 45 47 48 55 67

Services 395 452 554 412 485 619

Industry 52 55 61 54 58 66

Residential 698 738 803 714 767 854

Transport 11 12 14 12 13 15

Railways - - - - - -

Total 1,199 1,303 1,479 1,239 1,378 1,622

Uttar Pradesh

Agriculture 24,525 27,463 32,115 23,223 26,587 32,571

Services 20,081 22,991 28,165 20,938 24,648 31,483

Industry 29,412 31,203 34,096 30,277 32,747 36,836

Residential 54,490 62,386 76,425 55,722 64,753 81,118

Transport 1,050 1,202 1,472 1,069 1,247 1,571

Railways 2,380 2,725 3,033 2,451 2,807 3,124

Total 1,31,938 1,47,970 1,75,307 1,33,679 1,52,790 1,86,704

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 63

 ER-CTS ER-HGR
Sector
2024-25 2026-27 2029-30 2024-25 2026-27 2029-30
Uttarakhand
Agriculture 176 138 73 527 603 739
Services 2,539 2,853 3,397 2,648 3,060 3,802
Industry 8,682 9,572 11,081 8,932 10,037 11,954
Residential 4,112 4,708 5,768 4,205 4,887 6,122
Transport 81 93 114 83 96 121
Railways 41 47 52 42 48 54
Total 15,631 17,411 20,485 16,438 18,732 22,792
West Bengal
Agriculture 1,368 1,342 1,303 1,500 1,718 2,104
Services 11,173 12,554 14,952 11,654 13,468 16,731
Industry 27,396 29,918 34,141 28,191 31,377 36,844
Residential 20,717 22,624 25,818 21,197 23,503 27,442
Transport 293 317 357 299 330 382
Railways 2,641 3,024 3,366 2,720 3,114 3,467
Total 63,590 69,779 79,937 65,561 73,510 86,970

64 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 BIBLIOGRAPHY
ƒ Brookings India. (2018). Indian Railways And Coal- An Unsustainable Interdependency. https://www.brook-
ings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Railways-and-coal.pdf
ƒ CEA, 2022. (2022). General Review Report. https://cea.nic.in/general-review-report/?lang=en
ƒ IRES. (2020). India Residential Energy Survey (IRES) 2020. https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm-
l?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/U8NYUP
ƒ DA&FW. (2022). Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2021. https://eands.dacnet.nic.in/PDF/Agricultural%20
Statistics%20at%20a%20Glance%20-%202021%20(English%20version).pdfDAFW
ƒ Hindustan Times. (2020). RBI maintains India’s GDP growth estimate at 7.2% for 2022-23. https://
www.hindustantimes.com/business/rbi-maintains-india-s-gdp-growth-estimate-at-7-2-for- 202223-
101654664381687.html
ƒ ICED. (2023). Sector-wise Electricity Consumption. https://iced.niti.gov.in/energy/electricity/distribution/
consumer
ƒ IEA. (2021). India Energy Outlook 2021. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1de6d91e-e23f-4e02-
b1fb-51fdd6283b22/India_Energy_Outlook_2021.pdf
ƒ IMF. (2013). IMF Survey: Economic Structural Change Vital to Successful Development. https://www.imf.
org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/soint062813a
ƒ Kamboj, P. (2022). India Transport Energy Outllook- 2022. CEEW. https://www.ceew.in/sites/default/files/
ceew-research-transport-energy-use-carbon-emissions-decarbonisation.pdf
ƒ Kumar, S. (2018). Estimating India’s commercial building stock to address the energy data challenge.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327611052_Estimating_India’s_commercial_building_stock_
to_address_the_energy_data_challenge
ƒ Ministry of Railways. (2021). Mission 100% Electrification Moving towards net Zero Carbon Emission. https://
indianrailways.gov.in/railwayboard/uploads/directorate/secretary_branches/IR_Reforms/Mission%20
100%25%20Railway%20Electrification%20-%20Moving%20towards%20Net%20Zero%20Carbon%20Emis-
sion.pdf
ƒ Ministry of Steel. (2020). National Steel Policy, 2017. https://steel.gov.in/sites/default/files/NATIONAL_
STEEL_POLICY_2017.pdf
ƒ MNRE. (2022a). Extension of Phase- II of Grid Connected Rooftop Solar Programme. https://cdnbbsr.s3waas.
gov.in/s3716e1b8c6cd17b771da77391355749f3/uploads/2023/10/202310051549377365.pdf
ƒ MNRE. (2022b). National Hydrogen Mission. https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/docu-
ments/2022/mar/doc202232127201.pdf
ƒ MoEFCC. (2021). India Cooling Action Plan. http://ozonecell.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/IN-
DIA-COOLING-ACTION-PLAN-e-circulation-version080319.pdf
ƒ MoHFW. (2017). National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4).
ƒ MoHFW. (2022). National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5). https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR375/
FR375.pdf
ƒ MoRTH. (2018). Road Transport Year Book [dataset]. https://morth.nic.in/road-transport-year-book
ƒ MoRTH. (2021). Road Transport Yearbook (2017-18 & 2018-19). https://morth.nic.in/sites/default/files/
RTYB-2017-18-2018-19.pdf

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 65

ƒ MoRTH. (2023a). Road Transport- Introduction. https://morth.nic.in/road-transport
ƒ MoRTH. (2023b). Vahan Dashboard. https://vahan.parivahan.gov.in/vahan4dashboard/vahan/dashboard-
view.xhtml;jsessionid=0E0935FCF8CA4170D7EFBAB9E3BC36AC
ƒ MoSPI. (2023). Energy Statistics India- 2023. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/publication_re-
ports/Energy_Statistics_2023/EnergyStatisticsIndia2023.pdf
ƒ Nature Communications. (2021). Air-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging econo-
mies. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26592-2
ƒ NFHS, India. (2021). NFHS-5 Fact sheets for key indicators by India and State/UTs. http://rchiips.org/nfhs/
factsheet_NFHS-5.shtml
ƒ NITI Aayog & Rocky Mountain Institute. (2019). India’s Electric Mobility Transformation- Progress to Date
and Future Opportunities. https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/rmi-niti-ev-report.pdf
ƒ PIB. (2022a). Indian Railways plans to become Net Zero Carbon Emitter by 2030. https://pib.gov.in/Press-
ReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1865754
ƒ PIB. (2022b). PM-KUSUM : A New Green Revolution. https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/
documents/2022/nov/doc20221115124801.pdf
ƒ PIB. (2022c). Union Minister for Chemicals and Fertilizers Dr. Mansukh Mandaviya Inaugurates FAI Annual
Seminar at New Delhi. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1881518
ƒ RBI. (2022). Measuring Productivity at the Industry Level – The India KLEMS Database. https://m.rbi.org.in/
Scripts/PublicationReportDetails.aspx?UrlPage=&ID=1216
ƒ RBI. (2023a). Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy, 2022-23. https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/AnnualPub-
lications.aspx?head=Handbook%20of%20Statistics%20on%20Indian%20Economy
ƒ RBI. (2023b). KLEMS Database [dataset]. https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/KLEMS.aspx
ƒ Saur Energy. (2020). Peak Power Demand Continues Fall, Down 28% Since March 20. https://www.sauren-
ergy.com/solar-energy-news/peak-power-demand-continues-fall-down-28-since-march-20
ƒ Shakti Foundation. (2018). https://shaktifoundation.in/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/shakti%20founda-
tion-final%20narrative%20report%20(aug%206-2012)-combined.pdf-29-6-18
ƒ The World Bank. (2023). GDP per capita (current US$)—India. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.
PCAP.CD?locations=IN
ƒ Union Budget. (2022). Economic Survey 2021-22. https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/ebook_
es2022/files/basic-html/page271.html
ƒ United Nations. (2018a). Country Profiles- World Urbanization Prospects 2018. https://population.un.org/
wup/Country-Profiles/
ƒ United Nations, D. of E. and S. A. P. D. (2018b). World Urbanization Prospects 2018. https://population.
un.org/wup/Download/
ƒ United News of India. (2019). India sets target of producing 10 MT of Aluminium by 2030. https://
www.uniindia.com/india-sets-target-of-producing-10-million-tones-of-aluminium-by-2030-tomar/east/
news/1487464.html

66 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE

 ABBREVIATIONS
BEE : Bureau of Energy Efficiency Mahabhiyan
CAGR : Compound Annual Growth Rate LED : Light Emitting Diode
CC : Correlation coefficient MMSCMD : Million Metric Standard Cubic
Meters per Day (Natural Gas)
CDD : Cooling Degree Day
MNRE : Ministry of New and Renewable
CEA : Central Electricity Authority
Energy
CFL : Compact Fluorescent Lamps
MoEFCC : Ministry of Environment, Forest,
CO2 : Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change
CTS : Current Trajectory Scenario MoRTH : Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways
DA & FW : Department of Agriculture and
Farmers Welfare MORTH : Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways
DoWR,
RD & GR : Department of Water Resources, MoSPI : Ministry of Statistics and
River Development and Ganga Programme Implementation
Rejuvenation MP : Madhya Pradesh
DRI : Direct Reduced Iron MSME : Ministry of Micro, Small, and
ECBC : Energy Conservation Building Code Medium Enterprises
EMDE : Emerging market and developing MT : Million tonnes
economies MTPA : Million Tonnes Per Annum
EPI : Energy Performance Index MU : Million units
EPS : Electric Power Survey NFHS : National Family Health Survey
ER : Econometric Regression NSSO : National Sample Survey Office
ESCerts : Energy Saving Certificates PAT : Perform, Achieve, and Trade
EV : Electric Vehicle PEUM : Partial End-Use Method
FAME : Faster Adoption and Manufacturing RBI : Reserve Bank of India
of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles
RKM : Route Kilometer
GDP : Gross Domestic Product
SEC : Specific Energy Consumption
GSDP : Gross State Domestic Product
Sqm : square meter
GVA : Gross Value Added
T&D : Transmission and Distribution
GW : Gigawatt
TERI : The Energy and Resources Institute
HAVC : Heating, ventilation, and air
conditioning TR : Ton of Refrigeration
HGR : High Growth Rate TWh : Tera Watt-hour
HP : Horse Power UJALA : Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for
All
IMF : International Monetary Fund
VA : Value Added
KUSUM : Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan

INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE 67

 CISRS House, 14, Jangpura B, Mathura Road, New Delhi – 110 014, India

www.vasudha-foundation.org

68 INDIA'S ELECTRICITY DEMAND: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT DECADE