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 Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
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R E V I S E D T H I R T E E N T H E D I T I O N

AN INTRODUCTION TO
MANAGEMENT
SCIENCE
QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES
TO DECISION MAKING
This page intentionally left blank
R E V I S E D T H I R T E E N T H E D I T I O N

AN INTRODUCTION TO
MANAGEMENT
SCIENCE
QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES
TO DECISION MAKING

David R. Anderson
University of Cincinnati

Dennis J. Sweeney
University of Cincinnati

Thomas A. Williams
Rochester Institute of Technology

Jeffrey D. Camm
University of Cincinnati

Kipp Martin
University of Chicago

Australia • Brazil • Japan • Korea • Mexico • Singapore • Spain • United Kingdom • United States
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 An Introduction to Management Science: © 2012 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning
Quantitative Approaches to Decision
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Making, Revised Thirteenth Edition
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 14 13 12 11 10
This page intentionally left blank
 Dedication

To My Parents
Ray and Ilene Anderson
DRA

To My Parents
James and Gladys Sweeney
DJS

To My Parents
Phil and Ann Williams
TAW

To My Wife
Karen Camm
JDC

To My Wife
Gail Honda
KM
This page intentionally left blank
Brief Contents

Preface xxv
About the Authors xxix
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 An Introduction to Linear Programming 28
Chapter 3 Linear Programming: Sensitivity Analysis and
Interpretation of Solution 92
Chapter 4 Linear Programming Applications in Marketing,
Finance, and Operations Management 153
Chapter 5 Advanced Linear Programming Applications 214
Chapter 6 Distribution and Network Models 255
Chapter 7 Integer Linear Programming 317
Chapter 8 Nonlinear Optimization Models 365
Chapter 9 Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM 412
Chapter 10 Inventory Models 453
Chapter 11 Waiting Line Models 502
Chapter 12 Simulation 542
Chapter 13 Decision Analysis 602
Chapter 14 Multicriteria Decisions 659
Chapter 15 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 703
Chapter 16 Markov Processes 761
Chapter 17 Linear Programming: Simplex Method On Website
Chapter 18 Simplex-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Duality
On Website
Chapter 19 Solution Procedures for Transportation and
Assignment Problems On Website
Chapter 20 Minimal Spanning Tree On Website
Chapter 21 Dynamic Programming On Website
Appendixes 787
Appendix A Building Spreadsheet Models 788
Appendix B Areas for the Standard Normal Distribution 815
Appendix C Values of eⴚλ 817
Appendix D References and Bibliography 818
Appendix E Self-Test Solutions and Answers
to Even-Numbered Problems 820
Index 853
This page intentionally left blank
Contents

Preface xxv
About the Authors xxix

Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Problem Solving and Decision Making 3
1.2 Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making 4
1.3 Quantitative Analysis 6
Model Development 7
Data Preparation 10
Model Solution 11
Report Generation 12
A Note Regarding Implementation 12
1.4 Models of Cost, Revenue, and Profit 14
Cost and Volume Models 14
Revenue and Volume Models 15
Profit and Volume Models 15
Breakeven Analysis 16
1.5 Management Science Techniques 16
Methods Used Most Frequently 18
Summary 19
Glossary 19
Problems 20
Case Problem Scheduling a Golf League 23
Appendix 1.1 Using Excel for Breakeven Analysis 24

Chapter 2 An Introduction to Linear Programming 28

2.1 A Simple Maximization Problem 30
Problem Formulation 31
Mathematical Statement of the Par, Inc., Problem 33
2.2 Graphical Solution Procedure 35
A Note on Graphing Lines 44
Summary of the Graphical Solution Procedure
for Maximization Problems 46
Slack Variables 47
2.3 Extreme Points and the Optimal Solution 48
2.4 Computer Solution of the Par, Inc., Problem 50
Interpretation of Computer Output 51
xii Contents

2.5 A Simple Minimization Problem 52

Summary of the Graphical Solution Procedure
for Minimization Problems 54
Surplus Variables 55
Computer Solution of the M&D Chemicals Problem 56
2.6 Special Cases 57
Alternative Optimal Solutions 57
Infeasibility 58
Unbounded 60
2.7 General Linear Programming Notation 62
Summary 64
Glossary 65
Problems 66
Case Problem 1 Workload Balancing 82
Case Problem 2 Production Strategy 83
Case Problem 3 Hart Venture Capital 84
Appendix 2.1 Solving Linear Programs with LINGO 85
Appendix 2.2 Solving Linear Programs with Excel 87

Chapter 3 Linear Programming: Sensitivity Analysis

and Interpretation of Solution 92
3.1 Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis 94
3.2 Graphical Sensitivity Analysis 95
Objective Function Coefficients 95
Right-Hand Sides 100
3.3 Sensitivity Analysis: Computer Solution 103
Interpretation of Computer Output 103
Cautionary Note on the Interpretation of Dual Values 106
The Modified Par, Inc., Problem 106
3.4 Limitations of Classical Sensitivity Analysis 110
Simultaneous Changes 111
Changes in Constraint Coefficients 112
Nonintuitive Dual Values 112
3.5 The Electronic Communications Problem 116
Problem Formulation 117
Computer Solution and Interpretation 118
Summary 122
Glossary 123
Problems 123
Case Problem 1 Product Mix 145
Case Problem 2 Investment Strategy 146
Case Problem 3 Truck Leasing Strategy 147
Appendix 3.1 Sensitivity Analysis with Excel 148
Appendix 3.2 Sensitivity Analysis with LINGO 150
Contents xiii

Chapter 4 Linear Programming Applications in

Marketing, Finance, and Operations
Management 153
4.1 Marketing Applications 154
Media Selection 155
Marketing Research 158
4.2 Financial Applications 161
Portfolio Selection 161
Financial Planning 164
4.3 Operations Management Applications 168
A Make-or-Buy Decision 168
Production Scheduling 172
Workforce Assignment 179
Blending Problems 183
Summary 188
Problems 189
Case Problem 1 Planning an Advertising Campaign 202
Case Problem 2 Phoenix Computer 203
Case Problem 3 Textile Mill Scheduling 204
Case Problem 4 Workforce Scheduling 205
Case Problem 5 Duke Energy Coal Allocation 207
Appendix 4.1 Excel Solution of Hewlitt Corporation Financial
Planning Problem 210

Chapter 5 Advanced Linear Programming

Applications 214
5.1 Data Envelopment Analysis 215
Evaluating the Performance of Hospitals 216
Overview of the DEA Approach 216
DEA Linear Programming Model 217
Summary of the DEA Approach 222
5.2 Revenue Management 223
5.3 Portfolio Models and Asset Allocation 229
A Portfolio of Mutual Funds 229
Conservative Portfolio 230
Moderate Risk Portfolio 232
5.4 Game Theory 236
Competing for Market Share 236
Identifying a Pure Strategy Solution 238
Identifying a Mixed Strategy Solution 239
Summary 247
Glossary 247
Problems 248
xiv Contents

Chapter 6 Distribution and Network Models 255

6.1 Transportation Problem 256
Problem Variations 260
A General Linear Programming Model 262
6.2 Assignment Problem 263
Problem Variations 266
A General Linear Programming Model 267
6.3 Transshipment Problem 268
Problem Variations 274
A General Linear Programming Model 274
6.4 Shortest-Route Problem 276
A General Linear Programming Model 279
6.5 Maximal Flow Problem 279
6.6 A Production and Inventory Application 283
Summary 286
Glossary 287
Problems 288
Case Problem 1 Solutions Plus 305
Case Problem 2 Distribution System Design 306
Appendix 6.1 Excel Solution of Transportation, Assignment,
and Transshipment Problems 308

Chapter 7 Integer Linear Programming 317

7.1 Types of Integer Linear Programming Models 319
7.2 Graphical and Computer Solutions for an All-Integer
Linear Program 321
Graphical Solution of the LP Relaxation 322
Rounding to Obtain an Integer Solution 322
Graphical Solution of the All-Integer Problem 323
Using the LP Relaxation to Establish Bounds 323
Computer Solution 324
7.3 Applications Involving 0-1 Variables 325
Capital Budgeting 325
Fixed Cost 326
Distribution System Design 329
Bank Location 334
Product Design and Market Share Optimization 337
7.4 Modeling Flexibility Provided by 0-1 Integer Variables 341
Multiple-Choice and Mutually Exclusive Constraints 341
k out of n Alternatives Constraint 342
Conditional and Corequisite Constraints 342
A Cautionary Note About Sensitivity Analysis 344
Contents xv

Summary 344
Glossary 345
Problems 346
Case Problem 1 Textbook Publishing 357
Case Problem 2 Yeager National Bank 358
Case Problem 3 Production Scheduling with Changeover Costs 359
Appendix 7.1 Excel Solution of Integer Linear Programs 360
Appendix 7.2 LINGO Solution of Integer Linear Programs 361

Chapter 8 Nonlinear Optimization Models 365

8.1 A Production Application—Par, Inc., Revisited 367
An Unconstrained Problem 367
A Constrained Problem 368
Local and Global Optima 371
Dual Values 374
8.2 Constructing an Index Fund 374
8.3 Markowitz Portfolio Model 379
8.4 Blending: The Pooling Problem 382
8.5 Forecasting Adoption of a New Product 387
Summary 392
Glossary 392
Problems 393
Case Problem 1 Portfolio Optimization with Transaction
Costs 402
Case Problem 2 CAFE Compliance in the Auto Industry 405
Appendix 8.1 Solving Nonlinear Problems with LINGO 408
Appendix 8.2 Solving Nonlinear Problems with Excel Solver 409

Chapter 9 Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM 412

9.1 Project Scheduling with Known Activity Times 413
The Concept of a Critical Path 414
Determining the Critical Path 416
Contributions of PERT/CPM 420
Summary of the PERT/CPM Critical Path Procedure 421
9.2 Project Scheduling with Uncertain Activity Times 422
The Daugherty Porta-Vac Project 423
Uncertain Activity Times 423
The Critical Path 425
Variability in Project Completion Time 428
9.3 Considering Time-Cost Trade-Offs 431
Crashing Activity Times 432
Linear Programming Model for Crashing 434
xvi Contents

Summary 436
Glossary 437
Problems 438
Case Problem R. C. Coleman 448
Appendix 9.1 Using Microsoft Office Project 450

Chapter 10 Inventory Models 453

10.1 Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model 454
The How-Much-to-Order Decision 459
The When-to-Order Decision 460
Sensitivity Analysis for the EOQ Model 461
Excel Solution of the EOQ Model 462
Summary of the EOQ Model Assumptions 463
10.2 Economic Production Lot Size Model 464
Total Cost Model 465
Economic Production Lot Size 467
10.3 Inventory Model with Planned Shortages 467
10.4 Quantity Discounts for the EOQ Model 472
10.5 Single-Period Inventory Model with Probabilistic Demand 474
Johnson Shoe Company 475
Nationwide Car Rental 479
10.6 Order-Quantity, Reorder Point Model with Probabilistic
Demand 480
The How-Much-to-Order Decision 481
The When-to-Order Decision 482
10.7 Periodic Review Model with Probabilistic Demand 484
More Complex Periodic Review Models 487
Summary 488
Glossary 489
Problems 491
Case Problem 1 Wagner Fabricating Company 498
Case Problem 2 River City Fire Department 499
Appendix 10.1 Development of the Optimal Order Quantity (Q*)
Formula for the EOQ Model 500
Appendix 10.2 Development of the Optimal Lot Size (Q*) Formula
for the Production Lot Size Model 501

Chapter 11 Waiting Line Models 502

11.1 Structure of a Waiting Line System 504
Single-Channel Waiting Line 504
Distribution of Arrivals 504
Distribution of Service Times 506
Contents xvii

Queue Discipline 507

Steady-State Operation 507
11.2 Single-Channel Waiting Line Model with Poisson Arrivals
and Exponential Service Times 508
Operating Characteristics 508
Operating Characteristics for the Burger Dome Problem 509
Managers’ Use of Waiting Line Models 510
Improving the Waiting Line Operation 510
Excel Solution of Waiting Line Model 511
11.3 Multiple-Channel Waiting Line Model with Poisson Arrivals
and Exponential Service Times 512
Operating Characteristics 513
Operating Characteristics for the Burger Dome Problem 515
11.4 Some General Relationships for Waiting Line Models 517
11.5 Economic Analysis of Waiting Lines 519
11.6 Other Waiting Line Models 520
11.7 Single-Channel Waiting Line Model with Poisson Arrivals
and Arbitrary Service Times 521
Operating Characteristics for the M/G/1 Model 521
Constant Service Times 523
11.8 Multiple-Channel Model with Poisson Arrivals, Arbitrary Service
Times, and No Waiting Line 524
Operating Characteristics for the M/G/k Model with Blocked
Customers Cleared 524
11.9 Waiting Line Models with Finite Calling Populations 526
Operating Characteristics for the M/M/1 Model with a Finite
Calling Population 527
Summary 529
Glossary 531
Problems 531
Case Problem 1 Regional Airlines 539
Case Problem 2 Office Equipment, Inc. 540

Chapter 12 Simulation 542

12.1 Risk Analysis 545
PortaCom Project 545
What-If Analysis 545
Simulation 547
Simulation of the PortaCom Project 554
12.2 Inventory Simulation 558
Butler Inventory Simulation 561
12.3 Waiting Line Simulation 563
Hammondsport Savings Bank ATM Waiting Line 563
Customer Arrival Times 564
xviii Contents

Customer Service Times 565

Simulation Model 565
Hammondsport Savings Bank ATM Simulation 569
Simulation with Two ATMs 570
Simulation Results with Two ATMs 572
12.4 Other Simulation Issues 574
Computer Implementation 574
Verification and Validation 575
Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Simulation 575
Summary 576
Glossary 577
Problems 578
Case Problem 1 Tri-State Corporation 585
Case Problem 2 Harbor Dunes Golf Course 587
Case Problem 3 County Beverage Drive-Thru 589
Appendix 12.1 Simulation with Excel 590
Appendix 12.2 Simulation Using Crystal Ball 597

Chapter 13 Decision Analysis 602

13.1 Problem Formulation 604
Influence Diagrams 605
Payoff Tables 605
Decision Trees 606
13.2 Decision Making Without Probabilities 607
Optimistic Approach 607
Conservative Approach 607
Minimax Regret Approach 608
13.3 Decision Making with Probabilities 610
Expected Value of Perfect Information 613
13.4 Risk Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis 615
Risk Analysis 615
Sensitivity Analysis 616
13.5 Decision Analysis with Sample Information 620
Influence Diagram 620
Decision Tree 621
Decision Strategy 623
Risk Profile 627
Expected Value of Sample Information 629
Efficiency of Sample Information 630
13.6 Computing Branch Probabilities 630
Summary 634
Glossary 635
Problems 637
Case Problem 1 Property Purchase Strategy 651
Contents xix

Case Problem 2 Lawsuit Defense Strategy 652

Appendix 13.1 Decision Analysis with Treeplan 653

Chapter 14 Multicriteria Decisions 659

14.1 Goal Programming: Formulation and Graphical Solution 660
Developing the Constraints and the Goal Equations 661
Developing an Objective Function with Preemptive Priorities 663
Graphical Solution Procedure 664
Goal Programming Model 667
14.2 Goal Programming: Solving More Complex Problems 668
Suncoast Office Supplies Problem 668
Formulating the Goal Equations 669
Formulating the Objective Function 670
Computer Solution 671
14.3 Scoring Models 674
14.4 Analytic Hierarchy Process 679
Developing the Hierarchy 680
14.5 Establishing Priorities Using AHP 680
Pairwise Comparisons 681
Pairwise Comparison Matrix 682
Synthesization 684
Consistency 685
Other Pairwise Comparisons for the Car Selection Problem 687
14.6 Using AHP to Develop an Overall Priority Ranking 688
Summary 690
Glossary 690
Problems 691
Case Problem EZ Trailers, Inc. 700
Appendix 14.1 Scoring Models with Excel 701

Chapter 15 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 703

15.1 Time Series Patterns 705
Horizontal Pattern 705
Trend Pattern 707
Seasonal Pattern 709
Trend and Seasonal Pattern 710
Cyclical Pattern 713
Selecting a Forecasting Method 713
15.2 Forecast Accuracy 713
15.3 Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing 717
Moving Averages 717
Weighted Moving Averages 720
Exponential Smoothing 721
xx Contents

15.4 Trend Projection 726

Linear Trend 726
Nonlinear Trend 730
15.5 Seasonality 733
Seasonality Without Trend 734
Seasonality and Trend 737
Models Based on Monthly Data 739
Summary 740
Glossary 741
Problems 741
Case Problem 1 Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales 751
Case Problem 2 Forecasting Lost Sales 751
Appendix 15.1 Forecasting with Excel Data Analysis Tools 753
Appendix 15.2 Forecasting with Excel Solver 754
Appendix 15.3 Forecasting with LINGO 759

Chapter 16 Markov Processes 761

16.1 Market Share Analysis 763
16.2 Accounts Receivable Analysis 771
Fundamental Matrix and Associated Calculations 772
Establishing the Allowance for Doubtful Accounts 774
Summary 776
Glossary 776
Problems 777
Case Problem Dealer’s Absorbing State Probabilities in Blackjack 781
Appendix 16.1 Matrix Notation and Operations 782
Appendix 16.2 Matrix Inversion with Excel 785

Chapter 17 Linear Programming: Simplex Method On Website

17.1 An Algebraic Overview of the Simplex Method 17-2
Algebraic Properties of the Simplex Method 17-3
Determining a Basic Solution 17-3
Basic Feasible Solution 17-4
17.2 Tableau Form 17-5
17.3 Setting up the Initial Simplex Tableau 17-7
17.4 Improving the Solution 17-10
17.5 Calculating the Next Tableau 17-12
Interpreting the Results of an Iteration 17-15
Moving Toward a Better Solution 17-15
Interpreting the Optimal Solution 17-18
Summary of the Simplex Method 17-19
Contents xxi

17.6 Tableau Form: The General Case 17-20

Greater-Than-or-Equal-to Constraints 17-20
Equality Constraints 17-24
Eliminating Negative Right-Hand-Side Values 17-25
Summary of the Steps to Create Tableau Form 17-26
17.7 Solving a Minimization Problem 17-27
17.8 Special Cases 17-29
Infeasibility 17-29
Unboundedness 17-31
Alternative Optimal Solutions 17-32
Degeneracy 17-33
Summary 17-35
Glossary 17-36
Problems 17-37

Chapter 18 Simplex-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Duality

On Website
18.1 Sensitivity Analysis with the Simplex Tableau 18-2
Objective Function Coefficients 18-2
Right-Hand-Side Values 18-6
Simultaneous Changes 18-13
18.2 Duality 18-14
Economic Interpretation of the Dual Variables 18-16
Using the Dual to Identify the Primal Solution 18-18
Finding the Dual of Any Primal Problem 18-18
Summary 18-20
Glossary 18-21
Problems 18-21

Chapter 19 Solution Procedures for Transportation

and Assignment Problems On Website
19.1 Transportation Simplex Method: A Special-Purpose Solution
Procedure 19-2
Phase I: Finding an Initial Feasible Solution 19-2
Phase II: Iterating to the Optimal Solution 19-7
Summary of the Transportation Simplex Method 19-17
Problem Variations 19-17
19.2 Assignment Problem: A Special-Purpose Solution Procedure 19-18
Finding the Minimum Number of Lines 19-21
Problem Variations 19-21
Glossary 19-25
Problems 19-26
xxii Contents

Chapter 20 Minimal Spanning Tree On Website

A Minimal Spanning Tree Algorithm 20-2
Glossary 20-5
Problems 20-5

Chapter 21 Dynamic Programming On Website

21.1 A Shortest-Route Problem 21-2
21.2 Dynamic Programming Notation 21-6
21.3 The Knapsack Problem 21-10
21.4 A Production and Inventory Control Problem 21-16
Summary 21-20
Glossary 21-21
Problems 21-22
Case Problem Process Design 21-26

Appendixes 787

Appendix A Building Spreadsheet Models 788

Appendix B Areas for the Standard Normal Distribution 815
Appendix C Values of eⴚλ 817
Appendix D References and Bibliography 818
Appendix E Self-Test Solutions and Answers
to Even-Numbered Problems 820
Index 853
This page intentionally left blank
Preface

We are very excited to publish the revised thirteenth edition of a text that has been a leader
in the field for over 20 years. The purpose of this revised thirteenth edition, as with previ-
ous editions, is to provide undergraduate and graduate students with a sound conceptual
understanding of the role that management science plays in the decision-making process.
The text describes many of the applications where management science is used success-
fully. Former users of this text have told us that the applications we describe have led them
to find new ways to use management science in their organizations.
An Introduction to Management Science is applications oriented and continues to use
the problem-scenario approach that is a hallmark of every edition of the text. Using the
problem-scenario approach, we describe a problem in conjunction with the management
science model being introduced. The model is then solved to generate a solution and rec-
ommendation to management. We have found that this approach helps to motivate the stu-
dent by not only demonstrating how the procedure works, but also how it contributes to the
decision-making process.
From the very first edition we have been committed to the challenge of writing a text-
book that would help make the mathematical and technical concepts of management sci-
ence understandable and useful to students of business and economics. Judging from the
responses from our teaching colleagues and thousands of students, we have successfully
met the challenge. Indeed, it is the helpful comments and suggestions of many loyal users
that have been a major reason why the text is so successful.
Throughout the text we have utilized generally accepted notation for the topic being
covered so those students who pursue study beyond the level of this text should be comfort-
able reading more advanced material. To assist in further study, a references and bibliogra-
phy section is included at the back of the book.

CHANGES IN THE REVISED THIRTEENTH EDITION

The thirteenth edition of Management Science is a major revision. We are very excited
about it and want to tell you about some of the changes we have made and why.
In addition to the major revisions described in the remainder of this section, this revised
edition of the thirteenth edition has been updated to incorporate Microsoft® Office Excel®
2010. This involves some changes in the user interface of Excel and major changes in the in-
terface and functionality of Excel Solver. The Solver in Excel 2010 is more reliable than in
previous editions and offers new alternatives such as a multistart option for difficult nonlin-
ear problems.

New Member of the ASWM Team

Prior to getting into the content changes, we want to announce that we are adding a new
member to the ASWM author team. His name is Jeffrey Camm. Jeff received his Ph.D.
from Clemson University. He has been at the University of Cincinnati since 1984, and has
been a visiting scholar at Stanford University and a visiting professor of business adminis-
tration at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College. Jeff has published over 30 pa-
pers in the general area of optimization applied to problems in operations management. At
the University of Cincinnati, he was named the Dornoff Fellow of Teaching Excellence and
xxvi Preface

he was the 2006 recipient of the INFORMS Prize for the Teaching of Operations Research
Practice. He currently serves as editor-in-chief of Interfaces, and is on the editorial board
of INFORMS Transactions on Education. We welcome Jeff to the new ASWCM team and
expect the new ideas from Jeff will make the text even better in the years to come.
In preparing this thirteenth edition, we have been careful to maintain the overall format
and approach of the previous edition. However, based on our classroom experiences and
suggestions from users of previous editions, a number of changes have been made to en-
hance the text.

Made the Book Less Reliant on Specific Software

The first eight chapters on optimization no longer use output from The Management Scien-
tist software. All figures illustrating computer output are generic and are totally indepen-
dent of software selection. This provides flexibility for the instructor. In addition, we
provide appendices that describe how to use Excel Solver and LINGO. For every model
illustrated in the text we have both Excel and LINGO files available at the website. Prior
users of The Management Scientist wishing to upgrade to similar software should consider
using LINGO. This will be an easy transition and LINGO is far more flexible than The
Management Scientist. The documented LINGO models (not available in MS 12e), avail-
able at the website, will aide in the transition. Excel Solver and LINGO have an advantage
over The Management Scientist in that they do not require the user to move all variables to
the left-hand side of the constraint. This eliminates the need to algebraically manipulate the
model and allows the student to enter the model in the computer in its more natural form.
For users wishing to use The Management Scientist, it will continue to be available on the
website for the text.

New Appendix A: Building Spreadsheet Models

This appendix will prove useful to professors and students wishing to solve optimization
models with Excel Solver. The appendix also contains a section on the principles of good
spreadsheet modeling and a section on auditing tips. Exercises are also provided.

Chapter 15 Thoroughly Revised

Chapter 15, Times Series Analysis and Forecasting, has been thoroughly revised. The re-
vised chapter is more focused on time series data and methods. A new section on forecast
accuracy has been added and there is more emphasis on curve fitting. A new section on
nonlinear trend has been added. In order to better integrate this chapter with the text, we
show how finding the best parameter values in forecasting models is an application of
optimization, and illustrate with Excel Solver and LINGO.

New Project Management Software

In Chapter 9, Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM, we added an appendix on Microsoft Office
Project. This popular software is a valuable aid for project management and is software that
the student may well encounter on the job. This software is available on the CD that is
packaged with every new copy of the text.

Chapter 3 Significantly Revised

We significantly revised Chapter 3, Linear Programming: Sensitivity Analysis and Inter-
pretation of Solution. The material is now presented in a more up-to-date fashion and
emphasizes the ease of using software to analyze optimization models.
 Preface xxvii

New Management Science in Action, Cases, and Problems

Management Science in Action is the name of the short summaries that describe how the
material covered in a chapter has been used in practice. In this edition you will find numer-
ous Management Science in Action vignettes, cases, and homework problems.

Other Content Changes

A variety of other changes, too numerous to mention individually, have been made
throughout the text in responses to suggestions of users and our students.

COMPUTER SOFTWARE INTEGRATION

We have been careful to write the text so that it is not dependent on any particular software
package. But, we have included materials that facilitate using our text with several of
the more popular software packages. The following software and files are available on the
website for the text:
• LINGO trial version,
• LINGO and Excel Solver models for every optimization model presented in the
text,
• Microsoft® Excel worksheets for most of the examples used throughout the text,
• TreePlanTM Excel add-in for decision analysis and manual.
Microsoft Project is provided on the CD that is packaged with every new copy of the text.

FEATURES AND PEDAGOGY

We have continued many of the features that appeared in previous editions. Some of the
important ones are noted here.

Annotations
Annotations that highlight key points and provide additional insights for the student are a
continuing feature of this edition. These annotations, which appear in the margins, are
designed to provide emphasis and enhance understanding of the terms and concepts being
presented in the text.

Notes and Comments

At the end of many sections, we provide Notes and Comments designed to give the student
additional insights about the statistical methodology and its application. Notes and Com-
ments include warnings about or limitations of the methodology, recommendations for
application, brief descriptions of additional technical considerations, and other matters.

Self-Test Exercises
Certain exercises are identified as self-test exercises. Completely worked-out solutions for
those exercises are provided in an appendix at the end of the text. Students can attempt the
self-test exercises and immediately check the solution to evaluate their understanding of
the concepts presented in the chapter.
xxviii Preface

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We owe a debt to many of our academic colleagues and friends for their helpful comments
and suggestions during the development of this and previous editions. Our associates from
organizations who supplied several of the Management Science in Action vignettes make a
major contribution to the text. These individuals are cited in a credit line associated with
each vignette.
We are also indebted to our senior acquisitions editor, Charles McCormick, Jr.; our
marketing communications manager, Libby Shipp; our developmental editor, Maggie
Kubale; our content project manager, Jacquelyn K Featherly; our media editor, Chris
Valentine; and others at Cengage Business and Economics for their counsel and support
during the preparation of this text. We also wish to thank Lynn Lustberg, Project Manager
at MPS Content Services for her help in manuscript preparation.

David R. Anderson
Dennis J. Sweeney
Thomas A. Williams
Jeffrey D. Camm
Kipp Martin
About the Authors

David R. Anderson. David R. Anderson is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis

in the College of Business Administration at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Grand
Forks, North Dakota, he earned his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees from Purdue University.
Professor Anderson has served as Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis and
Operations Management and as Associate Dean of the College of Business Administration.
In addition, he was the coordinator of the College’s first Executive Program.
At the University of Cincinnati, Professor Anderson has taught introductory statistics
for business students as well as graduate-level courses in regression analysis, multivariate
analysis, and management science. He has also taught statistical courses at the Department
of Labor in Washington, D.C. He has been honored with nominations and awards for ex-
cellence in teaching and excellence in service to student organizations.
Professor Anderson has coauthored ten textbooks in the areas of statistics, manage-
ment science, linear programming, and production and operations management. He is an
active consultant in the field of sampling and statistical methods.

Dennis J. Sweeney. Dennis J. Sweeney is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis

and Founder of the Center for Productivity Improvement at the University of Cincinnati.
Born in Des Moines, Iowa, he earned a B.S.B.A. degree from Drake University and his
M.B.A. and D.B.A. degrees from Indiana University, where he was an NDEA Fellow. Dur-
ing 1978–79, Professor Sweeney worked in the management science group at Procter &
Gamble; during 1981–82, he was a visiting professor at Duke University. Professor
Sweeney served as Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis and as Associate
Dean of the College of Business Administration at the University of Cincinnati.
Professor Sweeney has published more than thirty articles and monographs in the area
of management science and statistics. The National Science Foundation, IBM, Procter &
Gamble, Federated Department Stores, Kroger, and Cincinnati Gas & Electric have funded
his research, which has been published in Management Science, Operations Research,
Mathematical Programming, Decision Sciences, and other journals.
Professor Sweeney has coauthored ten textbooks in the areas of statistics, management
science, linear programming, and production and operations management.

Thomas A. Williams. Thomas A. Williams is Professor Emeritus of Management

Science in the College of Business at Rochester Institute of Technology. Born in Elmira,
New York, he earned his B.S. degree at Clarkson University. He did his graduate work at
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, where he received his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees.
Before joining the College of Business at RIT, Professor Williams served for seven
years as a faculty member in the College of Business Administration at the University of
Cincinnati, where he developed the undergraduate program in information systems and
then served as its coordinator. At RIT he was the first chairman of the Decision Sciences
Department. He teaches courses in management science and statistics, as well as graduate
courses in regression and decision analysis.
xxx About the Authors

Professor Williams is the coauthor of eleven textbooks in the areas of management sci-
ence, statistics, production and operations management, and mathematics. He has been a
consultant for numerous Fortune 500 companies and has worked on projects ranging from
the use of data analysis to the development of large-scale regression models.

Jeffrey D. Camm. Jeffrey D. Camm is Professor of Quantitative Analysis and Head of

the Department of Quantitative Analysis and Operations Management at the University of
Cincinnati. Dr. Camm earned a Ph.D. in management science from Clemson University
and a B.S. in mathematics from Xavier University. He has been at the University of Cincin-
nati since 1984, has been a visiting scholar at Stanford University, and a visiting professor
of business administration at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College. Dr.
Camm has published over 30 papers in the general area of optimization applied to problems
in operations management and his research has been funded by the Air Force Office of Sci-
entific Research, the Office of Naval Research, and the U.S. Department of Energy. He was
named the Dornoff Fellow of Teaching Excellence by the University of Cincinnati College
of Business and he was the 2006 recipient of the INFORMS Prize for the Teaching of
Operations Research Practice. He currently serves as editor-in-chief of Interfaces, and is on
the editorial board of INFORMS Transactions on Education.

Kipp Martin. Kipp Martin is Professor of Operations Research and Computing Tech-
nology at the Booth School of Business, University of Chicago. Born in St. Bernard, Ohio,
he earned a B.A. in mathematics, an MBA, and a Ph.D. in management science from the
University of Cincinnati. While at the University of Chicago, Professor Martin has taught
courses in management science, operations management, business mathematics, and infor-
mation systems.
Research interests include incorporating Web technologies such as XML, XSLT,
XQuery, and Web Services into the mathematical modeling process; the theory of how to
construct good mixed integer linear programming models; symbolic optimization; polyhe-
dral combinatorics; methods for large scale optimization; bundle pricing models; comput-
ing technology; and database theory. Professor Martin has published in INFORMS Journal
of Computing, Management Science, Mathematical Programming, Operations Research,
The Journal of Accounting Research, and other professional journals. He is also the author
of The Essential Guide to Internet Business Technology (with Gail Honda) and Large Scale
Linear and Integer Optimization.
 CHAPTER 1
Introduction

CONTENTS
1.1 PROBLEM SOLVING AND 1.4 MODELS OF COST, REVENUE,
DECISION MAKING AND PROFIT
1.2 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Cost and Volume Models
AND DECISION MAKING Revenue and Volume Models
Profit and Volume Models
1.3 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Breakeven Analysis
Model Development
Data Preparation 1.5 MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
Model Solution TECHNIQUES
Report Generation Methods Used Most Frequently
A Note Regarding Implementation
2 Chapter 1 Introduction

Management science, an approach to decision making based on the scientific method,

makes extensive use of quantitative analysis. A variety of names exists for the body of
knowledge involving quantitative approaches to decision making; in addition to manage-
ment science, two other widely known and accepted names are operations research and
decision science. Today, many use the terms management science, operations research,
and decision science interchangeably.
The scientific management revolution of the early 1900s, initiated by Frederic W.
Taylor, provided the foundation for the use of quantitative methods in management. But
modern management science research is generally considered to have originated during the
World War II period, when teams were formed to deal with strategic and tactical problems
faced by the military. These teams, which often consisted of people with diverse specialties
(e.g., mathematicians, engineers, and behavioral scientists), were joined together to solve
a common problem by utilizing the scientific method. After the war, many of these team
members continued their research in the field of management science.
According to Irv Lustig of Two developments that occurred during the post–World War II period led to the growth
IBM ILOG, Inc., solution and use of management science in nonmilitary applications. First, continued research
methods developed today resulted in numerous methodological developments. Probably the most significant devel-
are 10,000 times faster than
the ones used 15 years ago.
opment was the discovery by George Dantzig, in 1947, of the simplex method for solving
linear programming problems. At the same time these methodological developments were
taking place, digital computers prompted a virtual explosion in computing power. Computers
enabled practitioners to use the methodological advances to solve a large variety of problems.
The computer technology explosion continues, and personal computers can now be used to
solve problems larger than those solved on mainframe computers in the 1990s.
As stated in the Preface, the purpose of the text is to provide students with a sound con-
ceptual understanding of the role that management science plays in the decision-making
process. We also said that the text is applications oriented. To reinforce the applications
nature of the text and provide a better understanding of the variety of applications in which
management science has been used successfully, Management Science in Action articles
are presented throughout the text. Each Management Science in Action article summarizes
an application of management science in practice. The first Management Science in Action
in this chapter, Revenue Management at American Airlines, describes one of the most
significant applications of management science in the airline industry.

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN ACTION

REVENUE MANAGEMENT AT AMERICAN AIRLINES*

One of the great success stories in management sci- 1970s. As a result of deregulation, a number of
ence involves the work done by the operations re- low-cost airlines were able to move into the market
search (OR) group at American Airlines. In 1982, by selling seats at a fraction of the price charged
Thomas M. Cook joined a group of 12 operations by established carriers such as American Airlines.
research analysts at American Airlines. Under Facing the question of how to compete, the OR
Cook’s guidance, the OR group quickly grew to a group suggested offering different fare classes
staff of 75 professionals who developed models (discount and full fare) and in the process created
and conducted studies to support senior manage- a new area of management science referred to as
ment decision making. Today the OR group is yield or revenue management.
called Sabre and employs 10,000 professionals The OR group used forecasting and optimiza-
worldwide. tion techniques to determine how many seats to
One of the most significant applications devel- sell at a discount and how many seats to hold for
oped by the OR group came about because of the full fare. Although the initial implementation was
deregulation of the airline industry in the late relatively crude, the group continued to improve
 1.1 Problem Solving and Decision Making 3

the forecasting and optimization models that Today, virtually every airline uses some sort of
drive the system and to obtain better data. Tom revenue management system. The cruise, hotel,
Cook counts at least four basic generations of rev- and car rental industries also now apply revenue
enue management during his tenure. Each pro- management methods, a further tribute to the pio-
duced in excess of $100 million in incremental neering efforts of the OR group at American
profitability over its predecessor. This revenue Airlines and its leader, Thomas M. Cook.
management system at American Airlines gener-
ates nearly $1 billion annually in incremental *Based on Peter Horner, “The Sabre Story,” OR/MS
revenue. Today (June 2000).

1.1 PROBLEM SOLVING AND DECISION MAKING

Problem solving can be defined as the process of identifying a difference between the
actual and the desired state of affairs and then taking action to resolve the difference.
For problems important enough to justify the time and effort of careful analysis, the problem-
solving process involves the following seven steps:
1. Identify and define the problem.
2. Determine the set of alternative solutions.
3. Determine the criterion or criteria that will be used to evaluate the alternatives.
4. Evaluate the alternatives.
5. Choose an alternative.
6. Implement the selected alternative.
7. Evaluate the results to determine whether a satisfactory solution has been obtained.
Decision making is the term generally associated with the first five steps of the problem-
solving process. Thus, the first step of decision making is to identify and define the prob-
lem. Decision making ends with the choosing of an alternative, which is the act of making
the decision.
Let us consider the following example of the decision-making process. For the moment
assume that you are currently unemployed and that you would like a position that will lead
to a satisfying career. Suppose that your job search has resulted in offers from companies
in Rochester, New York; Dallas, Texas; Greensboro, North Carolina; and Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania. Thus, the alternatives for your decision problem can be stated as follows:
1. Accept the position in Rochester.
2. Accept the position in Dallas.
3. Accept the position in Greensboro.
4. Accept the position in Pittsburgh.
The next step of the problem-solving process involves determining the criteria that will
be used to evaluate the four alternatives. Obviously, the starting salary is a factor of some
importance. If salary were the only criterion of importance to you, the alternative selected
as “best” would be the one with the highest starting salary. Problems in which the objective
is to find the best solution with respect to one criterion are referred to as single-criterion
decision problems.
Suppose that you also conclude that the potential for advancement and the location of
the job are two other criteria of major importance. Thus, the three criteria in your decision
problem are starting salary, potential for advancement, and location. Problems that involve
more than one criterion are referred to as multicriteria decision problems.
The next step of the decision-making process is to evaluate each of the alternatives
with respect to each criterion. For example, evaluating each alternative relative to the
4 Chapter 1 Introduction

TABLE 1.1 DATA FOR THE JOB EVALUATION DECISION-MAKING PROBLEM

Starting Potential for Job

Alternative Salary Advancement Location
1. Rochester $48,500 Average Average
2. Dallas $46,000 Excellent Good
3. Greensboro $46,000 Good Excellent
4. Pittsburgh $47,000 Average Good

starting salary criterion is done simply by recording the starting salary for each job alter-
native. Evaluating each alternative with respect to the potential for advancement and the
location of the job is more difficult to do, however, because these evaluations are based
primarily on subjective factors that are often difficult to quantify. Suppose for now that
you decide to measure potential for advancement and job location by rating each of these
criteria as poor, fair, average, good, or excellent. The data that you compile are shown in
Table 1.1.
You are now ready to make a choice from the available alternatives. What makes this
choice phase so difficult is that the criteria are probably not all equally important, and no
one alternative is “best” with regard to all criteria. Although we will present a method for
dealing with situations like this one later in the text, for now let us suppose that after a care-
ful evaluation of the data in Table 1.1, you decide to select alternative 3; alternative 3 is thus
referred to as the decision.
At this point in time, the decision-making process is complete. In summary, we see that
this process involves five steps:
1. Define the problem.
2. Identify the alternatives.
3. Determine the criteria.
4. Evaluate the alternatives.
5. Choose an alternative.
Note that missing from this list are the last two steps in the problem-solving process: im-
plementing the selected alternative and evaluating the results to determine whether a satis-
factory solution has been obtained. This omission is not meant to diminish the importance
of each of these activities, but to emphasize the more limited scope of the term decision
making as compared to the term problem solving. Figure 1.1 summarizes the relationship
between these two concepts.

1.2 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

Consider the flowchart presented in Figure 1.2. Note that it combines the first three steps of
the decision-making process under the heading of “Structuring the Problem” and the latter
two steps under the heading “Analyzing the Problem.” Let us now consider in greater de-
tail how to carry out the set of activities that make up the decision-making process.
Figure 1.3 shows that the analysis phase of the decision-making process may take
two basic forms: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis is based primarily on
the manager’s judgment and experience; it includes the manager’s intuitive “feel” for the
problem and is more an art than a science. If the manager has had experience with similar
 1.2 Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making 5

FIGURE 1.1 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROBLEM SOLVING

AND DECISION MAKING

Define
the
Problem

Identify
the
Alternatives

Determine
the Decision
Criteria Making

Evaluate
Problem
the
Solving
Alternatives

Choose
an
Alternative

Implement
the Decision
Decision

Evaluate
the
Results

problems or if the problem is relatively simple, heavy emphasis may be placed upon a
qualitative analysis. However, if the manager has had little experience with similar prob-
lems, or if the problem is sufficiently complex, then a quantitative analysis of the problem
can be an especially important consideration in the manager’s final decision.
When using the quantitative approach, an analyst will concentrate on the quantitative
facts or data associated with the problem and develop mathematical expressions that

FIGURE 1.2 AN ALTERNATE CLASSIFICATION OF THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

Structuring the Problem Analyzing the Problem

Define Identify Determine Evaluate Choose

the the the the an
Problem Alternatives Criteria Alternatives Alternative
6 Chapter 1 Introduction

FIGURE 1.3 THE ROLE OF QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Analyzing the Problem

Qualitative
Analysis
Structuring the Problem

Define Identify Determine Summary Make

the the the and the
Problem Alternatives Criteria Evaluation Decision

Quantitative
Analysis

Quantitative methods are describe the objectives, constraints, and other relationships that exist in the problem. Then,
especially helpful with by using one or more quantitative methods, the analyst will make a recommendation based
large, complex problems.
on the quantitative aspects of the problem.
For example, in the
coordination of the Although skills in the qualitative approach are inherent in the manager and usually
thousands of tasks increase with experience, the skills of the quantitative approach can be learned only by
associated with landing studying the assumptions and methods of management science. A manager can increase
Apollo 11 safely on the decision-making effectiveness by learning more about quantitative methodology and by
moon, quantitative
better understanding its contribution to the decision-making process. A manager who is
techniques helped to ensure
that more than 300,000 knowledgeable in quantitative decision-making procedures is in a much better position to
pieces of work performed compare and evaluate the qualitative and quantitative sources of recommendations and
by more than 400,000 ultimately to combine the two sources in order to make the best possible decision.
people were integrated The box in Figure 1.3 entitled “Quantitative Analysis” encompasses most of the sub-
smoothly.
ject matter of this text. We will consider a managerial problem, introduce the appropriate
quantitative methodology, and then develop the recommended decision.
In closing this section, let us briefly state some of the reasons why a quantitative
approach might be used in the decision-making process:
Try Problem 4 to test your 1. The problem is complex, and the manager cannot develop a good solution without
understanding of why the aid of quantitative analysis.
quantitative approaches
2. The problem is especially important (e.g., a great deal of money is involved), and
might be needed in a
particular problem. the manager desires a thorough analysis before attempting to make a decision.
3. The problem is new, and the manager has no previous experience from which to
draw.
4. The problem is repetitive, and the manager saves time and effort by relying on
quantitative procedures to make routine decision recommendations.

1.3 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

From Figure 1.3, we see that quantitative analysis begins once the problem has been struc-
tured. It usually takes imagination, teamwork, and considerable effort to transform a rather
general problem description into a well-defined problem that can be approached via quan-
titative analysis. The more the analyst is involved in the process of structuring the problem,
1.3 Quantitative Analysis 7

the more likely the ensuing quantitative analysis will make an important contribution to the
decision-making process.
To successfully apply quantitative analysis to decision making, the management scien-
tist must work closely with the manager or user of the results. When both the management
scientist and the manager agree that the problem has been adequately structured, work can
begin on developing a model to represent the problem mathematically. Solution procedures
can then be employed to find the best solution for the model. This best solution for the
model then becomes a recommendation to the decision maker. The process of developing
and solving models is the essence of the quantitative analysis process.

Model Development
Models are representations of real objects or situations and can be presented in various
forms. For example, a scale model of an airplane is a representation of a real airplane.
Similarly, a child’s toy truck is a model of a real truck. The model airplane and toy truck
are examples of models that are physical replicas of real objects. In modeling terminology,
physical replicas are referred to as iconic models.
A second classification includes models that are physical in form but do not have the
same physical appearance as the object being modeled. Such models are referred to as
analog models. The speedometer of an automobile is an analog model; the position of the
needle on the dial represents the speed of the automobile. A thermometer is another analog
model representing temperature.
A third classification of models—the type we will primarily be studying—includes
representations of a problem by a system of symbols and mathematical relationships or
expressions. Such models are referred to as mathematical models and are a critical part of
any quantitative approach to decision making. For example, the total profit from the sale of
a product can be determined by multiplying the profit per unit by the quantity sold. If we let
x represent the number of units sold and P the total profit, then, with a profit of $10 per unit,
the following mathematical model defines the total profit earned by selling x units:

P = 10x (1.1)

The purpose, or value, of any model is that it enables us to make inferences about the
real situation by studying and analyzing the model. For example, an airplane designer
might test an iconic model of a new airplane in a wind tunnel to learn about the potential
flying characteristics of the full-size airplane. Similarly, a mathematical model may be used
to make inferences about how much profit will be earned if a specified quantity of a partic-
ular product is sold. According to the mathematical model of equation (1.1), we would ex-
pect selling three units of the product (x ⫽ 3) would provide a profit of P ⫽ 10(3) ⫽ $30.
In general, experimenting with models requires less time and is less expensive than ex-
perimenting with the real object or situation. A model airplane is certainly quicker and less
expensive to build and study than the full-size airplane. Similarly, the mathematical model
in equation (1.1) allows a quick identification of profit expectations without actually requir-
ing the manager to produce and sell x units. Models also have the advantage of reducing the
risk associated with experimenting with the real situation. In particular, bad designs or bad
decisions that cause the model airplane to crash or a mathematical model to project a
$10,000 loss can be avoided in the real situation.
The value of model-based conclusions and decisions is dependent on how well the
model represents the real situation. The more closely the model airplane represents the real
8 Chapter 1 Introduction

Herbert A. Simon, a Nobel airplane, the more accurate the conclusions and predictions will be. Similarly, the more
Prize winner in economics closely the mathematical model represents the company’s true profit-volume relationship,
and an expert in decision
the more accurate the profit projections will be.
making, said that a
mathematical model does Because this text deals with quantitative analysis based on mathematical models, let us
not have to be exact; it just look more closely at the mathematical modeling process. When initially considering a
has to be close enough to managerial problem, we usually find that the problem definition phase leads to a specific
provide better results than objective, such as maximization of profit or minimization of cost, and possibly a set of re-
can be obtained by common
strictions or constraints, such as production capacities. The success of the mathematical
sense.
model and quantitative approach will depend heavily on how accurately the objective and
constraints can be expressed in terms of mathematical equations or relationships.
A mathematical expression that describes the problem’s objective is referred to as the
objective function. For example, the profit equation P ⫽ 10x would be an objective func-
tion for a firm attempting to maximize profit. A production capacity constraint would be
necessary if, for instance, 5 hours are required to produce each unit and only 40 hours of
production time are available per week. Let x indicate the number of units produced each
week. The production time constraint is given by

5x … 40 (1.2)

The value of 5x is the total time required to produce x units; the symbol ⱕ indicates that the
production time required must be less than or equal to the 40 hours available.
The decision problem or question is the following: How many units of the product
should be scheduled each week to maximize profit? A complete mathematical model for
this simple production problem is

Maximize P = 10x objective function

subject to (s.t.)

f constraints
5x … 40
x Ú 0

The x ⱖ 0 constraint requires the production quantity x to be greater than or equal to

zero, which simply recognizes the fact that it is not possible to manufacture a negative
number of units. The optimal solution to this model can be easily calculated and is given by
x ⫽ 8, with an associated profit of $80. This model is an example of a linear programming
model. In subsequent chapters we will discuss more complicated mathematical models and
learn how to solve them in situations where the answers are not nearly so obvious.
In the preceding mathematical model, the profit per unit ($10), the production time per
unit (5 hours), and the production capacity (40 hours) are environmental factors that are not
under the control of the manager or decision maker. Such environmental factors, which can
affect both the objective function and the constraints, are referred to as uncontrollable
inputs to the model. Inputs that are controlled or determined by the decision maker are
referred to as controllable inputs to the model. In the example given, the production quantity
x is the controllable input to the model. Controllable inputs are the decision alternatives spec-
ified by the manager and thus are also referred to as the decision variables of the model.
Once all controllable and uncontrollable inputs are specified, the objective function
and constraints can be evaluated and the output of the model determined. In this sense,
the output of the model is simply the projection of what would happen if those particular
 1.3 Quantitative Analysis 9

FIGURE 1.4 FLOWCHART OF THE PROCESS OF TRANSFORMING MODEL INPUTS

INTO OUTPUT

Uncontrollable Inputs
(Environmental Factors)

Controllable
Mathematical Output
Inputs
Model (Projected Results)
(Decision Variables)

environmental factors and decisions occurred in the real situation. A flowchart of how
controllable and uncontrollable inputs are transformed by the mathematical model into
output is shown in Figure 1.4. A similar flowchart showing the specific details of the pro-
duction model is shown in Figure 1.5.
As stated earlier, the uncontrollable inputs are those the decision maker cannot influ-
ence. The specific controllable and uncontrollable inputs of a model depend on the partic-
ular problem or decision-making situation. In the production problem, the production time
available (40) is an uncontrollable input. However, if it were possible to hire more employ-
ees or use overtime, the number of hours of production time would become a controllable
input and therefore a decision variable in the model.
Uncontrollable inputs can either be known exactly or be uncertain and subject to vari-
ation. If all uncontrollable inputs to a model are known and cannot vary, the model is
referred to as a deterministic model. Corporate income tax rates are not under the influ-
ence of the manager and thus constitute an uncontrollable input in many decision models.
Because these rates are known and fixed (at least in the short run), a mathematical model
with corporate income tax rates as the only uncontrollable input would be a deterministic

FIGURE 1.5 FLOWCHART FOR THE PRODUCTION MODEL

Uncontrollable Inputs

10 Profit per Unit ($)

5 Production Time per Unit (Hours)
40 Production Capacity (Hours)

Max 10 (8)
Value for Profit = 80
s.t.
the Production
5 (8) ≤ 40
Quantity (x = 8) Time Used = 40
8 ≥ 0
Controllable Mathematical
Output
Input Model
10 Chapter 1 Introduction

model. The distinguishing feature of a deterministic model is that the uncontrollable input
values are known in advance.
If any of the uncontrollable inputs are uncertain and subject to variation, the model is
referred to as a stochastic or probabilistic model. An uncontrollable input to many pro-
duction planning models is demand for the product. A mathematical model that treats fu-
ture demand—which may be any of a range of values—with uncertainty would be called a
stochastic model. In the production model, the number of hours of production time re-
quired per unit, the total hours available, and the unit profit were all uncontrollable inputs.
Because the uncontrollable inputs were all known to take on fixed values, the model was
deterministic. If, however, the number of hours of production time per unit could vary from
3 to 6 hours depending on the quality of the raw material, the model would be stochastic.
The distinguishing feature of a stochastic model is that the value of the output cannot be
determined even if the value of the controllable input is known because the specific values
of the uncontrollable inputs are unknown. In this respect, stochastic models are often more
difficult to analyze.

Data Preparation
Another step in the quantitative analysis of a problem is the preparation of the data required
by the model. Data in this sense refer to the values of the uncontrollable inputs to the
model. All uncontrollable inputs or data must be specified before we can analyze the model
and recommend a decision or solution for the problem.
In the production model, the values of the uncontrollable inputs or data were $10 per
unit for profit, 5 hours per unit for production time, and 40 hours for production capacity.
In the development of the model, these data values were known and incorporated into the
model as it was being developed. If the model is relatively small and the uncontrollable
input values or data required are few, the quantitative analyst will probably combine model
development and data preparation into one step. In these situations the data values are in-
serted as the equations of the mathematical model are developed.
However, in many mathematical modeling situations, the data or uncontrollable input
values are not readily available. In these situations the management scientist may know that
the model will need profit per unit, production time, and production capacity data, but the
values will not be known until the accounting, production, and engineering departments
can be consulted. Rather than attempting to collect the required data as the model is being
developed, the analyst will usually adopt a general notation for the model development
step, and then a separate data preparation step will be performed to obtain the uncontrol-
lable input values required by the model.
Using the general notation

c = profit per unit

a = production time in hours per unit
b = production capacity in hours

the model development step of the production problem would result in the following gen-
eral model:

Max cx
s.t.
ax … b
x Ú 0
1.3 Quantitative Analysis 11

A separate data preparation step to identify the values for c, a, and b would then be neces-
sary to complete the model.
Many inexperienced quantitative analysts assume that once the problem has been de-
fined and a general model developed, the problem is essentially solved. These individuals
tend to believe that data preparation is a trivial step in the process and can be easily handled
by clerical staff. Actually, this assumption could not be further from the truth, especially
with large-scale models that have numerous data input values. For example, a small linear
programming model with 50 decision variables and 25 constraints could have more than
1300 data elements that must be identified in the data preparation step. The time required
to prepare these data and the possibility of data collection errors will make the data prepara-
tion step a critical part of the quantitative analysis process. Often, a fairly large database is
needed to support a mathematical model, and information systems specialists may become
involved in the data preparation step.

Model Solution
Once the model development and data preparation steps are completed, we can proceed to
the model solution step. In this step, the analyst will attempt to identify the values of the de-
cision variables that provide the “best” output for the model. The specific decision-variable
value or values providing the “best” output will be referred to as the optimal solution for
the model. For the production problem, the model solution step involves finding the value
of the production quantity decision variable x that maximizes profit while not causing a
violation of the production capacity constraint.
One procedure that might be used in the model solution step involves a trial-and-error
approach in which the model is used to test and evaluate various decision alternatives. In
the production model, this procedure would mean testing and evaluating the model under
various production quantities or values of x. Note, in Figure 1.5, that we could input trial
values for x and check the corresponding output for projected profit and satisfaction of the
production capacity constraint. If a particular decision alternative does not satisfy one or
more of the model constraints, the decision alternative is rejected as being infeasible,
regardless of the objective function value. If all constraints are satisfied, the decision alter-
native is feasible and a candidate for the “best” solution or recommended decision.
Through this trial-and-error process of evaluating selected decision alternatives, a decision
maker can identify a good—and possibly the best—feasible solution to the problem. This
solution would then be the recommended decision for the problem.
Table 1.2 shows the results of a trial-and-error approach to solving the production
model of Figure 1.5. The recommended decision is a production quantity of 8 because the
feasible solution with the highest projected profit occurs at x ⫽ 8.
Although the trial-and-error solution process is often acceptable and can provide valu-
able information for the manager, it has the drawbacks of not necessarily providing the best
solution and of being inefficient in terms of requiring numerous calculations if many deci-
sion alternatives are tried. Thus, quantitative analysts have developed special solution pro-
cedures for many models that are much more efficient than the trial-and-error approach.
Throughout this text, you will be introduced to solution procedures that are applicable to
the specific mathematical models that will be formulated. Some relatively small models or
problems can be solved by hand computations, but most practical applications require the
use of a computer.
Model development and model solution steps are not completely separable. An analyst
will want both to develop an accurate model or representation of the actual problem situa-
tion and to be able to find a solution to the model. If we approach the model development
12 Chapter 1 Introduction

TABLE 1.2 TRIAL-AND-ERROR SOLUTION FOR THE PRODUCTION MODEL

OF FIGURE 1.5

Decision Alternative Total Feasible

(Production Quantity) Projected Hours of Solution?
x Profit Production (Hours Used ◊ 40)
0 0 0 Yes
2 20 10 Yes
4 40 20 Yes
6 60 30 Yes
8 80 40 Yes
10 100 50 No
12 120 60 No

step by attempting to find the most accurate and realistic mathematical model, we may find
the model so large and complex that it is impossible to obtain a solution. In this case, a sim-
pler and perhaps more easily understood model with a readily available solution procedure
is preferred even if the recommended solution is only a rough approximation of the best
decision. As you learn more about quantitative solution procedures, you will have a better
idea of the types of mathematical models that can be developed and solved.
Try Problem 8 to test your After a model solution is obtained, both the management scientist and the manager will
understanding of the be interested in determining how good the solution really is. Even though the analyst has
concept of a mathematical undoubtedly taken many precautions to develop a realistic model, often the goodness or
model and what is referred accuracy of the model cannot be assessed until model solutions are generated. Model test-
to as the optimal solution to
the model.
ing and validation are frequently conducted with relatively small “test” problems that have
known or at least expected solutions. If the model generates the expected solutions, and if
other output information appears correct, the go-ahead may be given to use the model on
the full-scale problem. However, if the model test and validation identify potential prob-
lems or inaccuracies inherent in the model, corrective action, such as model modification
and/or collection of more accurate input data, may be taken. Whatever the corrective ac-
tion, the model solution will not be used in practice until the model has satisfactorily
passed testing and validation.

Report Generation
An important part of the quantitative analysis process is the preparation of managerial
reports based on the model’s solution. In Figure 1.3, we see that the solution based on the
quantitative analysis of a problem is one of the inputs the manager considers before mak-
ing a final decision. Thus, the results of the model must appear in a managerial report that
can be easily understood by the decision maker. The report includes the recommended de-
cision and other pertinent information about the results that may be helpful to the decision
maker.

A Note Regarding Implementation

As discussed in Section 1.2, the manager is responsible for integrating the quantitative
solution with qualitative considerations in order to make the best possible decision. After
completing the decision-making process, the manager must oversee the implementation
 1.3 Quantitative Analysis 13

and follow-up evaluation of the decision. The manager should continue to monitor the con-
tribution of the model during the implementation and follow-up. At times this process may
lead to requests for model expansion or refinement that will cause the management scien-
tist to return to an earlier step of the quantitative analysis process.
Successful implementation of results is of critical importance to the management
scientist as well as the manager. If the results of the quantitative analysis process are
not correctly implemented, the entire effort may be of no value. It doesn’t take too
many unsuccessful implementations before the management scientist is out of work.
Because implementation often requires people to do things differently, it often meets
with resistance. People want to know, “What’s wrong with the way we’ve been doing
it?” and so on. One of the most effective ways to ensure successful implementation is
to include users throughout the modeling process. A user who feels a part of identify-
ing the problem and developing the solution is much more likely to enthusiastically im-
plement the results. The success rate for implementing the results of a management
science project is much greater for those projects characterized by extensive user in-
volvement. The Management Science in Action, Quantitative Analysis at Merrill
Lynch, discusses some of the reasons behind the success Merrill Lynch realized from
using quantitative analysis.

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN ACTION

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS AT MERRILL LYNCH*

Merrill Lynch, a brokerage and financial services the background of the problem, the objectives of the
firm with more than 56,000 employees in 45 coun- project, the approach, the required resources, the
tries, serves its client base through two business time schedule, and the implementation issues. At this
units. The Merrill Lynch Corporate and Institutional stage, analysts focus on developing solutions that
Client Group serves more than 7000 corporations, provide significant value and are easily implemented.
institutions, and governments. The Merrill Lynch As the work progresses, frequent meetings
Private Client Group (MLPC) serves approximately keep the clients up to date. Because people with
4 million households, as well as 225,000 small to different skills, perspectives, and motivations must
mid-sized businesses and regional financial institu- work together for a common goal, teamwork is
tions, through more than 14,000 financial consul- essential. The group’s members take classes in
tants in 600-plus branch offices. The management team approaches, facilitation, and conflict resolution.
science group, established in 1986, has been part of They possess a broad range of multifunctional and
MLPC since 1991. The mission of this group is to multidisciplinary capabilities and are motivated to
provide high-end quantitative analysis to support provide solutions that focus on the goals of the firm.
strategic management decisions and to enhance the This approach to problem solving and the imple-
financial consultant–client relationship. mentation of quantitative analysis has been a hall-
The management science group has success- mark of the management science group. The impact
fully implemented models and developed systems and success of the group translates into hard dollars
for asset allocation, financial planning, marketing and repeat business. The group received the annual
information technology, database marketing, and Edelman award given by the Institute for Opera-
portfolio performance measurement.Although tech- tions Research and the Management Sciences for
nical expertise and objectivity are clearly important effective use of management science for organiza-
factors in any analytical group, the management sci- tional success.
ence group attributes much of its success to commu-
nications skills, teamwork, and consulting skills. *Based on Russ Labe, Raj Nigam, and Steve Spence,
Each project begins with face-to-face meetings “Management Science at Merrill Lynch Private Client
with the client. A proposal is then prepared to outline Group,” Interfaces 29, no. 2 (March/April 1999): 1–14.
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 “Do you think that?” queried Nikander eagerly. “Will you say that
in the Council?”
“But suppose she is freed—what should then be done with her?”
asked Timon.
But with this encouragement Nikander determined to apply
formally to the Priests’ Council for her release.
Never in all his days would Nikander forget the bitter anxiety of
that afternoon with the Council. Many strifes had he striven with that
august body, strifes for the good name of Delphi, strifes for the
honour and safety of Hellas, yet never one that had given him this
suffocation at the thought of defeat.
Timon became his earnest helper and Nikander sorely needed
help.
“Never before,” maintained the older priests, “never before had
the Pythia been given back to her family or been given in marriage.
It would cause a pestilence.”
But as the debate progressed Nikander gradually became aware of
his own new power in the Council. For many months Nikander had
been the sole one who had counselled resistance to the Persian. It
was Nikander who had supplicated for the more hopeful oracles and
received them. Suppose the more timid interpretations had
prevailed, where would the Delphians now be?
Nikander had been right and his prayers had changed the mind of
the god. Now Nikander was making a strange request. Might he not
be right in this also? Surely Nikander would not ask this save in
honest conviction. Had Nikander ever been selfish toward the
shrine? Would he ask that his daughter be dismissed if it were likely
to bring disaster? Did he not bring them now the god’s actual
command: “Begone from my temple”?
Nikander saw friend after friend spring to his feet with arguments
like these until his heart warmed and in a clear, impassioned speech
he moved the Council to his side.
 It was old Akeretos who made answer.
“Apollo has spoken to free the girl. It is not usual. But neither is it
usual for Apollo to appear in person and hurl mountains upon the
enemy. It is a time of portents and wonders. Let the girl be freed,
and at once.”
Nikander’s brain whirled as this verdict was pronounced.
But a still further joy awaited him.
Kobon, who had always been his bitterest antagonist, now rose in
the Council and proposed to elect Dryas, son of Nikander, to the
priesthood, also to give Dryas the crown for the best warrior in
yesterday’s battle.
 CHAPTER XL
AGAIN HOME

On leaving the Council, Nikander did what no other father in Hellas

would have done: He went first to release his daughter before
bringing the good news to his son.
He could not bear that Theria should learn her freedom from any
but himself. Old Akeretos went with him to confirm his authority in
the Pythia House. To tell the truth, they ascended the Precinct with
no little trepidation.
If you had asked who ruled the priests in Delphi not one would
have answered: “The old peasant woman Tuchè.” Yet such was the
case. Tuchè had a tongue of fire. Akeretos knocked faintly, and the
authoritative one herself appeared.
But she told the news quite otherwise than they had expected.
“Theria? No Pythoness, ye say? An’ did it take all ye men in day-
long council to find that out? I knew it from the first. She’s no
Pythia, no, not if she gave the best oracles ever. Take her away, do—
before she puts notions into the heads of the two new ones, good as
gold.”
Nikander did not wait for the finish. He ran past Tuchè to Theria’s
room.
Theria sat there on her couch staring at nothing in the same
melancholy apathy which before had so troubled the temple women.
She did not rouse until her father stood quite before her. Then up
went her longing hands.
“Father, Father,” she whispered amazedly.
But Nikander in his delight threw both arms about her.
“You are free, my own darling Theria, you are free,” he said. “The
Council has freed you.”
 But he should have been more careful with his news.
“No,” she said wildly. “Oh, I have to stay here. Here all my life—all
my life.”
“Not one further minute,” he asserted. “Dear child, I have come to
take you home.”
At this dear telling she burst into uncontrollable weeping. “Tuchè
will not let me,” she kept saying like a frightened child. “No, she will
not let me.”
“By the gods she will. Theria, quiet yourself. There, dear little one,
Father will care for you now.”
He was like a tender nurse comforting her. He called the temple
slave.
“Get this Pythia robe off my daughter at once,” he commanded.
“Where is the white robe in which she came?”
He himself helped to fasten the shoulder pins, unheard-of service
for a father. Often he kissed her when her tears ran down afresh. By
his excitement he made it the harder for her to grow calm. Then he
threw the himation over her head and face and hurried her out.
They reached home after a happy walk hand in hand. The open
air was always tonic to Theria. She was her bright self again when
they had reached the threshold. Melantho and Eëtíon were tending
Dryas in the aula.
With a cry Eëtíon leaped up, knowing the beloved figure before
her face was revealed. Melantho ran to her. Dryas reached out arms
from his couch, calling, “Sister, Sister,” and the slaves came hurrying
from everywhere.
Nikander had to explain a hundred questions how she came to be
really free.
Dryas kept her hand affectionately.
“Now home will be home,” he said. “It has never been the same
since you went away.”
 “Dear Theria,” laughed Nikander, “even the fish have tasted
wrong. I did not know you directed the cooking of the fish.”
Then he turned to Dryas.
“Dryas,” he questioned, “have they told you the news?”
“What news?”
Then all the joyfulness was to be gone through again as Nikander
told of Dryas’s election to the priesthood and his crowning.
Nikander, being by nature courageous, was never quite to realize
the struggle Dryas had had to win such a crown. But fine deeds he
did know, and felt new kinship with his son and all the old love and
pride. As the two were talking together, Eëtíon softly drew Theria
aside.
How strong and heavenly the joy in his face as he kissed her.
Theria had never known how godlike Eëtíon was until now, his eyes
so shining upon her and so full of awe. What was this strange love
which had come to her from the gods, a thing so unheard-of for a
mere Greek girl? Their very silence together seemed holy, difficult to
break.
“Oh, do you think that Father will allow——” she began; and then,
realizing what she was about to ask, she blushed and hushed her
speech.
“Allow us what, dear Theria?”
He lifted her hands in both of his, hardly listening to her words.
And before he could answer Melantho broke in upon them.
“Great Heavens! Theria, what are you doing? What am I doing to
let you stay here? Come back to our aula at once.”
Theria was too happy to be disobedient. She took her mother’s
hand and went back with her to the women’s apartment where the
door was quickly shut.
 CHAPTER XLI
A SCULPTOR’S RESPECTABILITY

Now that abnormal conditions were past, Nikander and his family
returned to conventional ways. Theria must not meet nor see Eëtíon.
Of course she must not. She must be shut in the women’s court
whenever he came to the house.
Nikander gave his formal consent to the marriage. He loved Eëtíon
with all his heart. The good youth now would have been his choice
for Theria even if Theria had had no wish in the matter. Yet as the
days went by Nikander dreaded the marriage. Marriage with a metic
was indeed a serious step.
Nikander knew his daughter well. He knew that while she now
made the sacrifice gladly that later when she saw her sons excluded
from the priesthood, herself excluded from processional rites and
perhaps taunted by women of her own class, Theria’s proud spirit
would revolt. He even wondered if her love would outlast the strain.
Love so burning bright in youth may be strangely quenched by hard
conditions.
Nikander’s attitude unconsciously affected Eëtíon. He, too, now
that he faced his marriage, realized how sad a sacrifice he was
asking of her who had set him free.
He had hoped that Theria would speak to him from her window so
that he could ask her of these things face to face. But this Theria
was too loyal to do.
She sent her messages by her father.
“So soon will come our life-long happiness,” she said, “we must
bear this parting now.”
At last Eëtíon was in serious misery for the trials looming ahead.
He sent question to Theria by Nikander.
 “Had she thought of all the future? Did she want to decide again?”
Nikander came back laughing.
“Never send me on such an errand again, young man,” he told
him. “She was almost as abusive as old Tuchè herself. She said she
had not supposed that you would so insult her. That if she were as
great a fool as you seem to be she would retaliate by distrusting
your love. But that she does not do. She trusts your love, and you by
this time should trust hers.”
Eëtíon laughed joyously. “Apollo bless her! she is as lovely in her
anger as in everything else!”
Upon which Nikander named him an Eros-infatuated youth.
But the incident cleared the air. From that time Nikander trusted
his daughter’s decision. So, Melantho having made ready the linens,
garments, and embroideries she considered essential, Theria and
Eëtíon were betrothed before witnesses, solemnly in the aula. For a
few happy moments they stood together and touched hands, though
Theria had to be veiled. The ceremony was more binding than the
wedding which was to follow later. Theria returned to her room
knowing that now she belonged to Eëtíon as his goods and chattels
belonged, but her heart was singing for joy.
It was at the betrothal feast, when it was too late for mending,
that Eëtíon revealed his one defect.
They were chatting after the meal, or rather sitting silent while
Eëtíon talked. For none of the youths of Delphi had had such
adventures as Eëtíon, by storm of ocean, by cruelty of pirates, deceit
of merchants in the ports. As a captive he had seen practically all the
far ports of the West.
Eëtíon sat upright on his couch, too animated to recline, his dark
eyes now brightening with some memory, now filling with terror or
triumph. Near him was one of the many small tables of a Greek
room.
 Upon this table had been left, no doubt by Kairos himself, the god
of chance, a double handful of smooth clay. It had been brought that
morning by some citizens from far away who wanted to establish a
sale for it in Delphi. Nikander had pronounced it the finest in texture
he had ever seen. Then it had been left here.
Eëtíon idly picked it up as he talked, working it with his deft
fingers.
Gradually it became soft, malleable. Absently he shaped it into a
thick pillar, then, as if in sudden decision, began to mould it. He
ceased talking, forgot his guests entirely, quite unconscious that they
were watching what he did.
Under his swift fingers the clay soon took the form of a youth.
“Look, it is beautiful,” whispered Dryas, wondering.
Now Eëtíon looked up impatiently, seized upon a plectrum as a
tool, and began to work again in mad haste.
More and more lovely the little youth became, not standing on
both feet in the old hieratic attitude, but leaning forward with one
leg advanced as if running, head thrown back and both arms
outstretched toward an invisible goal. Time passed by, but Eëtíon
was unaware of it. Now began the muscle modelling, dry, and at
points stylized, yet lovely and alive, the delicate thighs full of
strength, the spare abdomen showing the play of running muscles,
the chest lifted and full of breath.
“It is Ladas,” they cried, “Ladas, the Argive runner.”
Now Eëtíon began to etch the hair in fine-drawn lines in the old
fashion and bind it down with a fillet. Nikander saw at once that this
figure was the result of long and intense imagining of the mind.
Eëtíon could not otherwise have modelled with such swiftness. The
skill, too, was no idle skill, it was the result of long hours of training
and toil.
At length it satisfied its creator. Eëtíon breathed deep, looked up
and saw all the company gazing at him, and laughed a quick,
embarrassed laugh.
“Eëtíon!” spoke Nikander, amazed. “Surely you are not a sculptor!”
Eëtíon hung his head. “I sometimes think I am,” he confessed.
“But your father Euclides was a high-born citizen. He surely would
not give you over to the sculptor’s trade.”
“No,” answered Eëtíon. Then on the defensive, “But after all,
Nikander, is there any nobler way of honouring the gods than by
beautiful sculpture? What would Delphi be without its statues and its
songs?”
“Oh, but Eëtíon, this is hand craft. See, your hands are soiled even
now. Song is the work of the mind alone.”
“But you use the hand to play the lyre,” said Eëtíon, quickly hiding
his dirty hands in his himation.
“Apollo presides over song,” retorted Nikander. “No such god
fosters sculptor work.”
“There is Hephæstos.”
“The ugly lame god. By heaven, Eëtíon, you are no Hephæstos.”
Everybody laughed. “The beautiful Eëtíon himself with the limping,
grizzled one!”
“I am serious,” insisted Nikander; “you must explain this thing.
Who taught you?”
“Ageladas,” answered Eëtíon, “but of course my father never
knew.”
“Ah, no wonder you model well,” said Nikander, for Ageladas, the
Argive, was the greatest teacher of sculpture in Greece.
“My pedagogos was Ageladas’s friend,” went on Eëtíon, “and he
used to stop with me at Ageladas’s workshop on our way from
school. I—well, I played with the clay as I do now and Ageladas saw
and praised me. But oh, it was not the praise, it was the love of
making beautiful gods and men which possessed me. All through my
school hours I forgot my Homer, longing to be at work with
Ageladas. I bribed my pedagogos again and again to bring me there.
Myron was in the workshop, too, and I learned at his side. Then one
day Ageladas told me he would exhibit one of my statues as his
own.” Eëtíon laughed softly and tears came into his eyes.
“Ah, never shall I forget my father stopping by my own statue.
‘This is most beautiful of all,’ he said. ‘This youth pouring the
libation. See how he worships, how shyly he supplicates before his
god?’ Then such happiness welled up within me that I could not
speak. Dear Father, he never guessed that the statue was mine.”
Nikander took Eëtíon’s hand.
“But now, Eëtíon, now that you are a Delphian, a son of my
house, surely you will not do this curious thing, which no well-born
citizen would do? Delphi will give you large activities.”
“No, dear Nikander,” answered Eëtíon gently. “No.”
He took the little runner and with a single fierce pressure sent him
back into the clay whence he had come.
“Oh, don’t, don’t do that,” cried they all at once, for they loved its
loveliness.
“It would perish anyway,” said Eëtíon sadly. “The clay would soon
crack.”
 CHAPTER XLII
THE UNWILLING COLONIST

On the far-away coast of Sicily, the western outpost of the world, lay
the little town of Inessa. One day men came from the neighbouring
town Catana, attacked Inessa, and razed it to the ground. This was
done while Theria was yet spinning at home, before she was
immured in the Pythia House. And this one cruel act, performed by
men she had never known, in a town whose name she had never
heard, was to affect Theria’s life more profoundly than any act of
father, mother, or brother.
It was her fate.
A purposeful intent thus seemed to run through circumstance,
deflecting it toward a far-off goal.
Most of Inessa’s inhabitants were killed outright, but among those
who were cast upon the world was an awkward youth—one Hyllos,
son of Inessa’s most prominent citizen—but an ill-born young man
who stammered abominably. This Hyllos being come to the shore of
Phokis thought it a good opportunity to visit the Delphic Oracle and
inquire for the curing of his speech.
But when Hyllos stood before the tripod the priestess answered
not at all concerning his speech, but bade him:

“Return to Sicily and rebuild Inessa.”

He was so disappointed that he left the tripod almost before the

Pythoness had finished speaking.
But from that hour misfortune followed Hyllos.
At last he became so frightened that he bestirred himself belatedly
to obey the Oracle. He secured a ship and a few people willing to go
to Sicily, but still he dreaded the colonizing task. And on the very day
of Theria’s betrothal Hyllos reappeared in Delphi, praying to be
released from Apollo’s command.
On this occasion the Oracle reproved him roundly.

“The ruins of Inessa disturb the peace of the Delphic god. Yes, and yet
more misfortune shall overtake thee unless thou rebuild Inessa on a
height where trees invite the birds. Of high choice is the one who goeth
with thee.”

Hyllos next morning met Nikander in the Precinct and to him

poured out his troubles.
“I cannot rebuild Inessa, O priest,” he said. “Only a few poor
shepherds are left there. Our Catanian neighbours in their raid upon
us killed all our leading citizens. They carried away our wealth and
destroyed everything. Inessa is ruined beyond repair. Oh, no doubt
the god means to destroy me also, and takes this way of making me
worthy of death.”
Nikander quieted the young man as was his wont, then bade him
wait in Delphi until the priests should think and advise with each
other over the problem.
The young man’s predicament interested Nikander. Like all Delphic
priests he loved those far-away colonies of the west: Tarentum,
Catana, Syracuse, Croton, Elia—scattered at right intervals along the
coast of Greater Greece. They were young in power, wonderful
places of sunny beach and wooded hill, while in their backlands were
stretches of the richest soil in the world.
Almost all those cities had been either founded by the Oracle of
Delphi or greatly helped by it. To some Delphi had given laws, to
others had sent great leaders in times of need. In the case of Cyrene
in Africa, the Oracle had, in some secret way, selected the site and
insisted by repeated commands until the “fortunate city” had been
built. Delphi retained no lordship over these colonies—her children.
She was satisfied to feed their spirit and to receive in return their
worship, their tithes, and free gifts.
 Nikander left the young man and at once went into the cella of the
Great Temple. Here in the closed back room he brought forth long-
treasured maps of the priests, ancient ones of pottery, later ones of
sheepskin and papyrus.
He studied them absorbedly. Yes, at the site of the destroyed
Inessa was a great stretch of unhabitation on the coast. A city was
needed there and the port at the mouth of the river Symæthus was
good. How well the god had planned!
Nikander then went to old Akeretos who without delay summoned
the Council of the priests.
They met not in the Council House, for the day was warm, but up
in the great lesche or colonnade of the Precinct. Greeks never
willingly did their thinking away from the open air. Sitting thus on the
stone seats, they could look down through the opening of the steep
vale to the far-off bit of sapphire loveliness which was the Corinthian
Gulf.
Nikander showed them his map.
“Yes,” said Karamanor’s father whose name was Glaucos. “I
remember Inessa. Saw it during my travel year. I recall the back
country, too. Lovely shaded heights having wide prospect. I could
quite see them in memory as I stood there yesterday by the tripod.
And even while I was thinking, the Pythia spoke of them, ‘A height
where trees invite the birds.’ The oracle was marvellously clear.”
Glaucos looked awestruck, for the god’s message was not always
so revealing. The tranced Pythia did not invariably reflect the priestly
mind.
“Inessa must be rebuilt,” declared Timon. “Apollo has spoken it,
and Apollo is lord of migrations.”
“Yes,” agreed Nikander. “But this poor stammering Hyllos cannot
rebuild it. Strange it is that upon such an inefficient person the god
should have laid the charge. Within a century past we have not
founded so important a city.”
 “The god sees that Hyllos cannot do it,” declared a third priest,
Melas. “Did you note the oracle yesterday? ‘Of high choice the one
who goeth with thee.’ What can that mean but that we are to choose
out some real leader, some adequate, big-minded man, to found the
city? He must go with Hyllos. Thus shall the oracle be fulfilled.”
“One of high choice refers to Apollo himself,” declared Glaucos.
“That was said to encourage Hyllos on the enterprise.”
“That’s the way I understood it,” assented a young priest.
Akeretos brought forth the oracle tablet, and earnestly the priests
reread it.
“It means another man to go with Hyllos. Melas is right,” said
Nikander. “Why should the priestess refer to Apollo? Of course the
god always goes.”
“A leader is of utmost importance,” urged Melas. “The god sees
that and gives us the command to find a good one. It’s plain as
sunlight.”
“The oracle would be futile otherwise,” put in Timon decisively.
Agreement was soon reached as to the oracle’s meaning and the
urgent need of a leader. Then came the all-important choice of a
man.
“Shall he be a Delphian?” was the first question.
“Yes, I think so,” said old Akeretos. “Colonies are not often
founded these days. It may be years before another goes out. ’Tis a
rare chance to strengthen Apollo’s influence in the west.”
“Yes, yes,” chorused the priests. “A Delphian, by all means.”
Nikander’s face suddenly shone. He had wished for many a month
to do some service for Karamanor and Agis in return for their
honourable treatment of his poor son Lycophron. They were younger
sons without means. Here was a chance to make them both rich and
prominent.
 “I propose Karamanor and Agis, Glaucos’s sons, as leaders of the
colony,” said Nikander.
The priests discussed the two young men at length, but in the end
rejected both—honest young fellows but not of calibre for this
business. Then Dryas was proposed but quickly rejected. Then
several other young men of Delphi. It was not easy to find a leader
of the peculiar genius needed, fearless yet not quarrelsome, young
yet understanding, having the statesman’s uncanny vision to discern
the hidden meaning of events and their unlooked-for but inevitable
resultants.
During this later discussion Timon had remained quite silent.
Evidently he was thinking something through before proposal.
Timon’s was the most original mind in the Council, and Nikander
awaited his word with pleasure. However, amazement rather than
pleasure followed it.
“O priests,” at last said Timon, “has it occurred to you that there
have been women who were successful oekists of colonies?”
“Women! what nonsense, Timon. What are you joking about?”
The Council broke into puzzled laughter. For women were a
perennial source of satire.
“No, no, I mean it. Did not Dido, the Tyrian, found Carthage and
was faithful to the city even unto death?”
“Ay, but Dido was no Greek.”
“No, but Manto was—Manto who founded Clarus. She was a
priest’s daughter, a priest of Apollo.”
Suddenly Nikander guessed Timon’s meaning.
It was Theria—none other, whom Timon was about to propose for
this high, amazing trust.
But why? How could Timon know that the girl had the needed
power—Nikander’s little girl, hidden away in her home, unknown?
 For a moment Nikander pictured her thus and trembled to think
how his familiar Theria could wield the power of state.
Then with an overwhelming pride he realized that she could! She
could do it! What else was the meaning of her trenchant
questionings, her revealing suggestions in matters which puzzled
himself, her overpowering interest in public affairs in spite of all
rebukes, her oracles, by which in the very face of death she had sent
courage to the armies?
Yes, yes, Theria could! And the high task would meet and satisfy
her mental need.
Ah, but that task would take her away over seas; away, away to
the west. Nikander would never see his child again. The very life
would be torn out of him to part with her. It was too sudden, too
unexpected. He must call aloud to Timon to stop—stop! But no. Did
he dare stand in Theria’s way, to deprive her of this gift? Was it not
her right, her fate from the gods? Nikander hid his face from the
Council. They would never understand this emotion of his—this
dependence upon a girl-child.
But what were the priests saying? With quick concern Nikander
looked up again.
“It’s not only foolish, Timon; it’s dangerous!” Melas spoke. “Give a
woman power like that, she’ll go mad with it.”
Melas was one of those Greeks, a numerous class, who hated
women with a curious active hatred which seemed almost bred of
fear. They laughed at it all, of course. Why could not babies be
found in temples and thus women utterly done away? Wives! what
silly, miserable creatures. Hetairai! what undoing of mankind. And
behind all the gibing was the curious hating fear. Nikander knew that
Melas would not stop short of harming Theria to keep her from
being nominated. Keenly Nikander heard the argument.
“I’ve followed you, Timon, in most of your proposals,” said another
priest, “but now, by the gods, this is too much! But say, old fellow,
you are joking, you know you are.”
 “It seems to me you insult all the able young men of Delphi,” said
Glaucos.
“What young man have we in Delphi who has seen Apollo face to
face?” retorted Timon. “Theria, daughter of Nikander, has been
found worthy to behold the god.”
“That’s so, that’s so,” assented some.
“Go fetch her oracle tablets, let’s see what Apollo said to her,” said
one.
A messenger was dispatched to the temple.
“And not only has she beheld Apollo,” went on Timon. “But she
has spoken for him. Think of those two oracles of hers on the tripod.
If it had not been for those oracles, where would Delphi be now? On
the Persian side! In disgrace! As it is, men are throwing the earlier
oracles of Aristonikè in our face. ‘Persian lovers!’ they call us.
‘Medizers, you Delphians.’ And for my part I have naught to answer
but Theria’s oracles. That silences ’em. Salamis and the storm of
Artemisium! She foretold them both.”
“Ay, foretold them,” screamed Melas. “But what had she to do with
it? It was the god that spoke through her. She was nothing but his
mouthpiece.”
“She was more, more I tell you, Melas. She understood those
oracles—saw exactly whither they led. She gave them, rejoicing in
what they were to accomplish. She——”
“One would think,” interrupted Melas, “from what you say, Timon,
that she made them up, and that you knew it!”
“By Zeus, it seemed that way to me. Even at the time I thought
so,” said the young priest, his echo.
Ah, they had scented it out! What Nikander had feared—Theria’s
strange deception (or was it deception? Nikander himself hardly
thought so now). If this question should come up in the Council,
what punishment might not fall upon Theria? Who could foresee the
end?
Not one trace of this terror, however, showed in Nikander’s face.
Your true Greek was on his mettle at such time. He spoke with
trumpet anger.
“I will not have my daughter insulted in the Council! If you cannot
discuss her honourably, do not discuss her at all. You all know that
her oracle trance on the tripod was so real that it nearly killed her.
You all know that Apollo spoke afterward to her in the mountain.
And you, and you, and you”—turning to the priests—“saw her after
her vision. Was ever any vision condition more patent?”
“No, no!” they said. “That vision was true if ever vision was.”
“Then stop this cavilling about my daughter. Either she has the
power to conduct the colony or else she has not. That alone is up for
your decision.”
Since Salamis, Nikander had been a most powerful figure in the
Council, ardently loved, sincerely feared. The lovers spoke first.
“You know your daughter, Nikander. Tell us what you think of her.”
“I think she can do it. Whether I am willing for her to go is
another matter. Oh,” Nikander added, “I was as unwilling as you are
to acknowledge this power in my daughter. Like you I thought it
insulted my sons who should have it in her stead. But hers is the gift
of mind. I have been taught that, obstinately fighting. I have been
punished until I saw.”
“Punished by herself?” sneered Melas.
“No, by some unrelenting god,” he answered with the love of
Theria shining in his eyes.
“Remember,” spoke Timon again. “She has seen Apollo. We want
Delphi kept alive in the hearts of her colonists. Could we do better
than send one who has beheld the god?”
This argument won.
 It was as if Apollo himself were bestowing the leadership upon his
ardent young priestess.
Nikander and Timon left the Council together. Each gazed for a
moment into the other’s face.
“Well?” said Timon, smiling.
“Well!” said Nikander, still half amazed. “You have let me in for a
fine adventure.”
“Aren’t you glad?”
“Yes, I am glad,” responded Nikander, but Timon saw his eyes
flush with tears.
“You are very fond of her?”
“Yes, oh, yes. She is closer to me than any other now that I have
grown to know her. But,” suddenly lifting his head, “how in Zeus’s
name did you guess her, Timon? You never meet her as I do.”
“I did not have to guess. I saw.”
“Saw? What do you mean?”
“Her oracles on the tripod. She did make them, Nikander. I know
that. You know it! By Zeus, it was a close shave in the Council.”
The sudden statement was like a thunder-clap. Nikander shook
with fear. He seized Timon’s arm.
“You will not accuse her! Timon! She was compelled. She was——”
“No, no. Has not the god himself justified her? Who am I to offer
blame? But I saw her do it! And by Zeus, it was the bravest deed,
yes, and the most intelligent that I ever saw in my life.”
“Oh,” breathed Nikander.
“At first I could not credit that she was doing it, even though she
was pronouncing the oracle as no one had ever pronounced it—
driving home its meaning, by Hermes—driving it home! Then I saw
the martyr light in her face—the death light, expecting the god’s
lightning stroke. Did you note that agonized look just before she fell?
“But she had done the deed. Done the thing that you and I,
Nikander, couldn’t bring about with all our toil and effort.”
Nikander was too moved to speak.
“Ever since then,” went on Timon, “the girl’s genius has haunted
me. Horrible, you know! Such genius to be wasted even though it be
housed in a woman. There!” he ended, laughing. “You have my
reasoning.”
Nikander’s gratitude beamed from his face. “The gods bless you,”
he said, “for giving the girl her chance.”
 CHAPTER XLIII
THE BIRD IN THE CAGE

Nikander came hurrying into the house.

“Where is Theria?” he demanded.
Time was when Nikander coming in had invariably asked, “Where
is Dryas?” Now it was always, “Where is Theria?” looking about
restlessly as though home were not home until Theria appeared.
“Theria? She has gone to bed,” answered her mother.
“To bed! But the sun has not yet set,” said Nikander.
“Yes, but that’s where she is all the same. She said there was
nothing more to do in the house so she had better sleep. Of course
there is more to do,” complained Melantho. “You’d think she’d take
more interest in her bridal spinning. She says there are already more
linens and woollens than she can use in twenty years if she had
twenty children.”
“Well, aren’t there?” laughed Nikander.
“I should think she would like some more just to put away. But
she is so listless.”
Nikander smiled happily.
Listless! Ah, the dear child! She would be listless no longer now
that this supreme task had been thrust into her hands. How
strangely that had been done, as if the god had done it beyond all
human planning. Ah, what a task! The eloquent statements of the
afternoon had set the colony glowing in Nikander’s mind. That
Theria his child had been chosen leader still filled him with an
amazed joy. And Timon’s words! They thrilled back upon Nikander
like a triumphal song. He was newly proud, newly tender toward his
child who, unaided, had faced death from the god. But Timon had
recognized the real power of the girl which had quite escaped the
father who loved her. Nikander wondered at this so-common
experience. Theria was as good as a son to him now. Had this
happened to Lycophron or Dryas could he be any happier than he
was at this moment?
He turned impatiently to Melantho.
“Think you she is asleep?” he asked.
“Who, Theria? No, hardly yet. Have you something for her to do?”
“By the gods, yes,” answered Nikander, and strode off like a boy to
Theria’s room.
Yes, she was asleep. How strange to see her bright face so
quieted. Gods! What a quantity of dark hair she had spreading out
over her pillow. What a young child she was, after all.
“Theria,” he said, touching her shoulder.
Her eyes opened wide and alarmed.
“Father, what has happened?”
“Something wonderful, dear child, but you can never guess it. Are
you awake enough to understand?”
Theria sat up rubbing her eyes, dizzy from the depths of sleep.
“About Eëtíon?” she murmured.
“No, not your lover. Yourself, yourself. Though, by Hermes, Eëtíon
comes into it, too.” Suddenly Nikander found the matter difficult to
explain. The girl there on her bed looked so tender, so young! A
creature to cherish and protect. Hardly to send over seas to contend
with men and fate. He sat down beside her and took her slender
hand—that feminine hand so curiously like his own.
“It is a brand-new colony,” he began, “a city that is to be founded
or rather refounded in Sicily.”
“Yes; what has that to do with me?” How infinitely far she was
from guessing the outcome!
 Nikander went back to the beginning, told of Hyllos and his
difficult oracle, of the Council, of the proposal of Karamanor and
Agis, of Dryas. She grew keenly interested.
“No, no, those could not be leaders, Father. I cannot think of any
one who could, any one big enough. Let me see, let me see——”
She looked away, knitting her pretty brows.
“The priests are not in such doubt, Daughter,” said Nikander
tenderly. “They have chosen you!”
“Me!” She turned such an amazed face that Nikander had to
laugh.
“What on earth do you mean? Why are you joking, Father?”
The same question which Melas had asked.
“I am not joking, dear heart. The priests are in earnest. They
chose you because you have seen Apollo. No one in our generation
has done that, my child.”
“The vision! How strange. How strange. And the priests chose me,
you say? The priests—me!”
Nikander went on explaining as if to dreaming ears. She seemed
not to hear him.
“Would Eëtíon go?” she queried.
“Yes, he would help you, but he would not be the leader. That is
for you.”
“For me! Oh, Father,” she suddenly cried out. “How could you
suppose I could do it? Think of the wisdom, the strength to
command men where no laws command them, to know, oh, to know
everything for a city’s good. I am not great enough. I am not—not
even good enough, Father.”
“But I think you are,” he told her.
She leaned toward him, her lips quivering, very woman, veritable
child.
 “I would have to go away from Delphi. I would never see Delphi
again! I would never see you again! Dear, dear Father, that would be
like death!”
He put both arms about her and was not astonished when she
began to sob as if from some great shock or strain.
“You will not command me to go,” she pleaded. “Do not command
me to go.”
“My dear child! Of course not against your will. But do you not see
the honour, the splendour of doing this thing? Of making a city
which shall be your own, upon which you can stamp what character
you will?”
“I am not great enough to stamp character upon a city. Oh, no,
oh, no! Think if I should make some mistake which would harm it,
harm the people for perhaps a hundred years. And, oh, I could
never think of any city as my city except my Delphi—my Delphi,” she
repeated with all the hereditary love, the life-long worship sounding
in the word.
Nikander was utterly puzzled.
“Are you only a woman, after all?” he asked.
“Why, yes, Father, what should I be?” she asked with innocent
stare.
“Don’t you want your freedom?”
“Freedom! oh, Father, at the price of exile?”
“Exile it is, if you so consider it,” he said. “There, go to sleep
again. I don’t believe you are half awake, anyway.”
“Oh, yes, I am, I am awake.”
So he left her. Nikander’s mind was strangely divided between
relief and disappointment. Only a woman, after all. Evidently Timon’s
heroics were all misplaced. She cared only for home and loved ones.
What young man but would have leaped to the task, seen the
honour, joyed in the responsibility? And what should he say to the
priests? How they would laugh! He could hear Melas’s gibes. Timon
would get the brunt of it for proposing her name. Well, after all, they
both deserved it for believing such high things of a mere girl.
Yet as Nikander composed himself to sleep he was amazed at his
curious sense of relief, an escape out of sorrow. How lovingly she
had flung herself into his arms, and what an actual protection he
had felt in that love of hers—protection from loneliness, old age ...
greyness of life.

Thus strangely did Theria receive the news of her freedom. Like a
bird born in a cage, she did not recognize the open door. This
amazing proposal had come to Theria at the most sentimental hour
of her life, when the bride leaving her old home looks with vivid
tenderness upon it. These days the dear old home did not imprison
Theria. And the new one! With what intense hope and wonder did
that draw her on!
Perhaps she had not been fully awake talking with her father. But
surely she was awake now. She began to toss and toss upon her
bed. She was a little hurt that her father should so easily plan her
departure from Delphi.
“I thought he knew how I loved the Oracle,” she reflected. “But he
does not know. Because I am not Dryas, nor Timon—because I am
not a man, Father thinks I cannot feel as he does. But I do, I do.”
She sat up in bed, gazing into the dark.
“I have helped Delphi,” she murmured, rather miserably. “At least I
thought I had helped Delphi by my oracles. Shall I not love my city
that I have helped?”
The miraculous saving of Delphi after days of danger, Theria’s
vision on the mountain—all had intensified her already ardent love of
home. Even her god Apollo was locally peculiar to his shrine. Gods
were never quite the same when worshipped in distant temples.
Apollo of Delphi was nearer to Theria than Apollo anywhere else. No,
no, how strange of her father to propose her going away. And he
wanted her to found a city! The greatness of the task appalled her.
She lay back with a sigh.
Inessa! What did the city look like, lying ruined on its distant
shore?—“The most beautiful shore in the world,” her father had
called it. Apollo himself must love that city since he so insisted upon
its rebuilding. A great mountain rose behind it, greater than
Parnassos. This also her father had told her. She began again to
wonder who could be selected to rebuild it. No doubt the priests had
looked over the whole field and found no one. That was why they
had chosen her. There could be no other reason for such choosing.
Well, they would fall back upon Karamanor. Karamanor had
commercial talent. Theria had always heard of that, and how from a
little boy he had always got the best of it in every enterprise.
Karamanor would make Inessa prosperous, send her ships over
farthest waters, and make her rich as Sybaris. Oh, but that was not
what the god wanted! There were plenty of rich colonies in the west.
No, surely Apollo had some great entity for Inessa. An eidolon she
called it, a spiritual ideal or image containing the force and character
of the god himself. Beauty rising from it to meet the beauty of the
divine mind. Song in abundance fostered, almost worshipped, there.
Beauty of dance and of perfectly formed high-hearted youths.
Justice, yes, even to the poor who expect no just dealings. And
perhaps some new Philosophy which the god had stored in his heart
to give to some philosopher yet unborn and who could be born only
in this new place of free speech and high ideals, this place
untrammelled by old-world mistakes. She thought of Pythagoras,
Parmenides. Yes, it was from the west that the philosopher came
and awakened the minds of men.
Oh, who could tell what the god of pure, unutterable beauty might
do if only the place were prepared? Inessa was a god-appointed
place, a god-appointed task. But Karamanor could not do it.
Then? What then?
 It was her task. Theria’s! God-given!
She was unworthy, unable! Yes, yes, but the god would help her.
Had he not always helped? Ah, out of such difficulties, such
despairs, always that hand reached down, always that sudden
brightness of mind which was the god’s presence.
She seemed to see Inessa on its shore forlorn, waiting for her!
She leaped from her bed and stood trembling in the darkness.
What had she done? She had sent her father away; she had refused!
A sentimental, maudlin refusal! Oh, if her father had only shaken
her. He was too gentle these days, was Father. She must tell him
quickly, quickly. She must tell him she would go.
She felt her way to the door, then hurried along the balcony to her
father’s room. He was in the heavy first sleep of night, and when she
spoke to him he did not arouse, but only sighed wearily. Melantho
sat up. “Are you ill? Is it robbers?” she asked. And learning it was
neither she rated Theria in wrathful whispers for disturbing the head
of the house.
So Theria perforce went back to her room, there to toss, to plan,
to wonder, until nearly dawn when she fell, as with a sudden
stumble, into slumber.

When she awoke again the full sun was shining brightly into the
court. Inessa, the new wonderful colony, met her awaking mind. She
had been walking in its streets of dream with Eëtíon.
But she knew that Nikander always rose with the dawn. Already
he might be gone from the house to tell the priests to choose
another leader. In mad haste she threw on her chiton and hurried
down into the aula. Paian be praised! Nikander was still there, but all
dressed and sandalled going toward the door.
 “Father, Father!” she cried breathlessly. “Wait a moment. Oh, I
must see you alone.”
“What has happened?” he asked.
“Inessa! Oh, Father, I am going to Inessa. I must go.”
“What,” he smiled at her vehemence. “Changeable woman! Do
you expect me to veer about with all your moods?”
“I didn’t listen. I was blind. I——”
“But perhaps I, too, have changed mood. I am not nearly so eager
as I was last night, my daughter.”
He was not teasing. He meant it! There were longing and affection
in his face before which she was utterly silent.
Then he looked into her eyes.
“Does the colony seem more possible this morning?” he asked
seriously.
“Possible! Oh, the wonderful task! God-given. Are you sure, sure
the priests meant it for me?”
“Quite sure. It was a long, serious discussion.”
“There is no one else,” she said humbly. “That is why they chose
me. And that is why I must go. Inessa seems as if it were my own
child, lonely, ruined, waiting for me.”
“Hmm—so that is your meaning this morning.”
She began to pace up and down. “Father, it is a thousand-fold
task, the founding of a city.”
“I should rather think so,” he smiled.
“Would I have the choice of men who are to go? It should be but
a few men at first, and the right men.”
“Yes, the choice would be yours.”
 “And the present site of the city. May I choose another? If the old
site be unhealthful, or melancholy, or not beautiful, or haunted by
some fate?”
“Yes, with the consent of the colonists.”
“And the laws of the city. Would I select the code and even annul
laws that proved unsuited in the new land? Oh, Father, you will have
to teach me. I will have to work every moment to grow wiser and
better.”
“I will teach you,” he responded, wondering at her.
“Think, if we could make a new city where better justice would be
meted out than ever before, where even the poor man could keep
up heart and courage. And where orphans would be nurtured. Oh,
nobody should care for the little fatherless children but me. I would
let no one else do that.”
She stopped her pacing and faced him. He was amazed at the
change in her—a look of release, of purpose in her face that had
never been there before. Seeing her eyes so shining, he realized that
always heretofore they had held a bafflement, a look of
discouragement and hunger. That look was gone. Now she was
strangely creative, maternal onward-moving. The very lift of her
head was free. He seemed to see a new Theria.
“Daughter,” Nikander said, “I did not, no, I did not realize it would
mean all this to you.”
“Dear Father, dear Father,” she said.

Nikander at once plunged into the further details of the colony.

Theria’s enthusiasm was contagious. She listened to him, absorbed.
Suddenly she stopped him.
“Of course Eëtíon knows of my leadership? He approves?”
 “I did not see him, Daughter. I came hot-foot to you.”
“But Eëtíon should have known it first of all.” Her eyes looked
startled, then deep trouble entered into them. “Suppose he does not
wish to go?”
“But he will go, Daughter. I am sure he will.”
“I am not sure, not sure,” was her troubled answer. “Eëtíon has
been so beaten about the world. He is so pathetically glad to be
here at home in Hellas.”
“I’ll make him go,” laughed Nikander.
“Oh, but that is not what I want. No, Eëtíon, too, must be happy.
If he were saddened, all the joy would go out of the work; I would
lose my luck.”
“Oh, but he’ll go for your sake.”
She seemed not to hear him.
“Father”—she turned to him with sudden pleading—“may I not see
Eëtíon? I long to see him now—now. What foolishness to keep us
apart. We are betrothed, Eëtíon and I.”
“But I can tell him about the colony.”
“No, no, I must tell him myself. Please, Father, please!”
He could not resist her pleading. He kissed her. “Impetuous
daughter,” he called her. But he went forth to find Eëtíon.
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