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Air University Kamra Attock

Subject: Aviation Maintenance Management

VFM: PM Akhtar Nawaz Khan (PAC Kamra)
Lecture No.7 (Final Term)
No of Slides : 22
Time : 1:30 Hour
Reference Books:
1. Aviation Maintenance Management
(By Harry A. Kinnison and Tariq Siddiqui)
2. Aircraft System Safety
(By Duan Kritzinger)
3. Human Factors Guide for Aviation Maintenance
(By Vincoli)
 Sequence
➢ Risk Analysis / Assessment
➢ Reference Standards
➢ Risk Identification Tools
➢ Risk Analysis Tools & Techniques
➢ Risk Management Organization
➢ Risk management Cycle

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 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis
➢ Risk Analysis is the process of Defining, Analyzing and
Calculating Potential Hazards, Risks and the Dangers to
Aviation's, Industries, Organizations, Individuals, Society or to
a State or Nation caused due to Potential Natural, Natural
Events or Human-Caused adverse events.
➢Different tools and techniques are used to assist the various
steps of the Risk Analysis & Assessment Calculation Process.
➢A Risk Analysis Report can be used to align Technology-
related Risks / Objectives with a company’s Business
objectives. A Risk Analysis Report can be either Quantitative
or Qualitative.
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
References Standards
➢ ANSI Z690.1–2011. (2011)
▪ Vocabulary for Risk Management. Washington, DC: American
National Standards Institute.
➢ ANSI Z690.2–2011. (2011)
▪ Risk Management Principles and Guidelines. Washington, DC:
American National Standards Institute.
➢ ANSI Z690.3–2011. (2011)
▪ Risk Assessment Techniques. Washington, DC: American
National Standards Institute.
➢ ISO Standard 31010:2009 & ISO Guide 73. (2009)
➢ Risk Management Terminology. Geneva, Switzerland:
International Organization for Standardization (ISO)
➢ Risk management – Risk Assessment Techniques
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Techniques
➢ ISO Standard 31010:2009 lists the following 16 Techniques
that can be used for Risk Analysis Process (Identification,
Assessment, Mitigation and Reporting) process:
1. Brainstorming
2. Delphi Technique
3. Structured or Semi-Structured Interviews
4. Use of Check-Lists
5. Primary Hazard Analysis (PHA)
6. Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP)
7. Hazard Analysis and Critical Control (HACCP)
8. Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA)
9. Scenario Analysis
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Techniques
10. Structure “What if?” (SWIFT)
11. Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA)
12. Cause-and-Effect Analysis (CEA)
13. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA)
14. Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)
15. Consequence / Probability Matrix and
16. Fault tree analysis.
Recommendation:
➢ Instead of using only one Technique, a combination of different
tools should be used where suitable & appropriate for an
Organization. It is also important to combine aspects of Qualitative
and Quantitative Analysis in order to reach the Best Outcomes.
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Techniques
➢ ANSI Z690.1,2,3–2011 lists the following 31 Techniques that can be
used for Risk Analysis Process. 16 Techniques listed by ISO
Guidelines are also part listed by ANSI Standards:
1. Brainstorming
2. Structured or Semi Structured Interviews
3. Delphi Analysis
4. Checklists
5. Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA)
6. Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP)
7. Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP)
8. Structured ‘‘What-If’’ technique (SWIFT)
9. Scenario Analysis
10. Root Cause Analysis (RCA)
11. Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA)
12. Fault tree analysis (FTA)
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Techniques
13. Structured ‘‘What-If’’ technique (SWIFT)
14. Scenario Analysis
15. Root Cause Analysis (RCA)
16. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Additional Analysis List of -15 Recommended by ANSI Standard
▪ Event Tree Analysis (ETA)
▪ Cause-Consequence Analysis
▪ Cause-and-Effect Analysis
▪ Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA)
▪ Decision Tree Analysis
▪ Human Reliability Assessment (HRA)
▪ Bow Tie Analysis
▪ Sneak Analysis (SA)
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Techniques
▪ Monte Carlo Simulation
▪ Bayesian Statistics and Bayes Nets
▪ FN curves
▪ Risk Indices
▪ Consequence / Probability Matrix
▪ Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
▪ Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Tools
➢ Risk Register is an essential documentation tool for Risk
Management
➢ The Risk Register is like an “Index” of an Administration’s
Risks, from which each Functional Area can develop its
respective Risk Plans
➢ Risk Register should be tailored to meet the requirements
of an organization and may be set out in many different
ways
➢ Examples of Risk Registers is shown in Next Slides
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Tools
Example #1 RISK MANAGEMENT REGISTER:
Likelihood Consequence Tolerance Risk Risk
Risk Rating Rating Priority Treatment

1 Strategic Risk

2 Customs Systems & Procedures

3 IT & Communication

4 External Cooperation & Sources

5 Resources (Men, Machine, Material

6 Legal Framework

7 Political & Good Governance

 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Tools
Example #2 RISK MANAGEMENT REGISTER:
Risk Likelihood Consequence Toleran Risk Risk
Rating Rating ce Priority Treatment

1 Aviation
1.1 Airport

1.2 Air Cargo

1.3 Air Passengers / Crew Members

1.4 Aero drum & Airport Vicinity

1.5 Legal & International Regulations

Framework
1.6 Impact of Political Crises
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Organization of the Risk Management Function
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Management Cycle

➢ Different elements of Risk

Management Cycle are shown as:

▪ Risk Identification
▪ Risk Analysis
▪ Risk Mitigation Planning
▪ Implementation of Mitigation Plan
▪ Risk Tracking & Reporting
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
17

The Delphi Technique / Method

➢ The Delphi Technique is a Decision-
Making process used to get a Group
Opinion or Decision by surveying a
Panel of Experts. Experts respond to
several rounds of questionnaires, and
the responses are aggregated and
shared with the group after each round.
➢ The Delphi Technique is a Forecasting
Process Framework based on the
results of several rounds of
questionnaires sent to a panel of
experts.
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
18

The Delphi Technique / Method

 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
19

Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA)

➢ The Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) is a Risk Tool that is used
during Initial Design and Development, thus the name Preliminary is
used to Identify Systematic Hazards that affect the intended function
of the design to provide an opportunity to modify requirements that will
help to avoid issues in the design.
➢Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) is the proactive process of
Identification and Evaluation of Potential Hazards early in a system
Design, Development Manufacturing, or Operation & Maintenance
stages.
➢ Preliminary Hazard Analysis is an initial high-level screening exercise
that can be used to identify, describe, and rank major hazards during
conceptual stage of a facility design.
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
20

Benefits of Preliminary Hazard Analysis

➢ The ultimate goal of Preliminary Hazard Analysis is to ensure
the Health and Safety of employees and the community that the
company serves and belongs to. The benefits of PHA for the company
are as follows:-
➢ Improved Product Design and Service – Developers, engineers, and relevant
managers can Proactively implement appropriate Hazard Controls when they
conduct PHA. This ensures that their offerings meet Customer needs,
subsequently boosting their competitiveness and revenues.
➢ Guaranteed Regulatory Compliance – The Occupational Safety and Health
Administration (OSHA), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and other
agencies have strict regulations and impose severe penalties when directives are
Neglected or Violated.
➢ Increased Stakeholder Confidence – Operational Failures, Employee Accidents,
and Environmental Incidents can badly damage a business’s reputation with
customers and investors.
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
21

Preliminary Hazard Analysis - Steps

 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
22

Preliminary Hazard Analysis - Steps 5×5 , 3x3 Matrix for a PHA

Very high risk: 15 or greater, High risk 9-14, Medium risk 5-8, Low risk 1-4
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
23

Hazard and Operability (HAZOP)

➢ A Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study is a Structured and Systematic
examination of a Planned or Existing process or Operation in order to Identify
and Evaluate problems that may represent Risks to Personnel or Equipment, or
Prevent Efficient Operation.
➢ A Hazard and Operability Study, is a Systematic way to Identify possible hazards
in a Work Process that is recognized in OSHA's Process Safety
Methods of PHA
The US Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration
(OSHA) has identified several ways to conduct Process Hazard Analysis:
▪ What-if
▪ Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP)
▪ Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA)
▪ Fault Tree Analysis
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
24

Hazard and Operability (HAZOP)

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THANKS

Q&A
 Air University Kamra Attock

Subject: Aviation Maintenance Management

VFM: PM Akhtar Nawaz Khan (PAC Kamra)
Lecture No.8 (Final Term)
No of Slides : 15
Time : 1:30 Hour
 Sequence
➢ Risk Analysis Tools
➢ Risk Management Register
➢ Risk Likelihood Analysis
➢ Risk Tolerance Matrix
➢ Risk Reporting & Communication
➢ Risk Treatment and Risk Treatment Plan (RTP)
➢ Risk Vs Impact Assessment
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 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Tools
Example #1 RISK MANAGEMENT REGISTER:
Likelihood Consequence Tolerance Risk Risk
Risk Rating Rating Priority Treatment

1 Strategic Risk

2 Customs Systems & Procedures

3 IT & Communication

4 External Cooperation & Sources

5 Resources (Men, Machine, Material

6 Legal Framework

7 Political & Good Governance

 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Tools
Example #2 RISK MANAGEMENT REGISTER:
Risk Likelihood Consequence Toleran Risk Risk
Rating Rating ce Priority Treatment

1 Aviation
1.1 Airport

1.2 Air Cargo

1.3 Air Passengers / Crew Members

1.4 Aero drum & Airport Vicinity

1.5 Legal & International Regulations

Framework
1.6 Impact of Political Crises
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Tools
Example #3 5x5 LIKELIHOOD SCALE:
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Example #4 New Zealand Customs Service 5x5 LIKELIHOOD Scale
Rating Likelihood Description

▪ Definite Probability, or No Controls, or

Almost ▪ Has happened in the past and no compensating controls have been implemented, or
5
Certain ▪ Without additional controls the event is expected to occur in most circumstances, or
▪ Has happened within the last 3 months

▪ The event will probably occur in most circumstances, or

4 Likely ▪ Weak Controls e.g. Limited QAPs, No Internal Audits performed, or
▪ With existing controls in place this event will probably still occur with some certainty & has happened in the last 6 months

• The event should occur in some circumstances, or

3 Possible • Minimal controls, e.g. Some QAPs, some internal audits performed, or
• The event has occurred in other Customs agencies with similar Levels of controls & has happened in the last 12 months

▪ The event could occur in some circumstances, however more likely through human error for not following the control
environment, or
2 Unlikely ▪ Effective Controls in place, e.g. Timely QAPs, internal & external audits, or
▪ The event hasn’t occurred in Customs recently but it could occur in some circumstances, or
▪ Has happened in the last 2 years

▪ The event may occur in some exceptional circumstances, i.e. deliberate fraud / attack outside of existing deterrents, or
from activity beyond the control of Customs actions, or
1 Rare ▪ Strong Controls. Despite effective controls an external event or uncontrollable event could occur, or
▪ Improbable: A very small chance of an event occurring that would be caused by stressed economic, market and operating
conditions or events not previously seen in similar agencies, or • Has not happened in the last 3 years
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Tools
Example #5 5x5 RISK TOLERANCE MATRIX:
Risk Rating Minimal Minor Moderate Major Severe
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Almost Certain 5 10 15 15 25

Likely 4 8 12 12 20

Possible 3 6 9 9 15

Unlikely 2 4 6 6 10

Rare 1 2 3 3 5
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Risk Analysis Tools
Example #5 5x5 RISK TOLERANCE MATRIX:
Risk Rating Minimal Minor Moderate Major Severe
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Almost Certain High Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme

Likely Low High Extreme Extreme Extreme

Possible Low High High High High

Unlikely Low Low High High High

Rare Low Low Low Low Low

 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
RISK ANALYSIS & ESTIMATION

SEVERITY LIKELIHOOD
MINOR NO LOST TIME VERY UNLIKELY

UNDER 3 DAYS UNLIKELY

OVER 3 DAYS LIKELY

DISABLING INJURY VERY LIKELY

FATALITY CERTAIN

1-5 ( LOW RISK) 6-15 High RISK 16-25 EXTREME HIGH RISK
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
RISK REPORTING & COMMUNICATION
Internal Reporting
➢ Different Levels within an Organization need different information from the Risk
Management process
• Board of Director
• individual
• Organizational Units
• Functional Groups
• Operational Groups
• Administrative & Supports Groups
External Reporting
➢A company needs to Report to it’s Stakeholders on a regular basis, By setting
out Risk Managements Policies and the Effectiveness in achieving its
objectives.
• Stakeholders look to an Organizations to provide evidence of Effective Management of
the organization’s non-financial performance / Roles in such areas as Community Affairs,
Human Rights, Employment Practices, Health and Safety and, the Environment
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
WHAT IS RISK TREATMENT?
➢ Risk Treatment is the process of Selecting and Implementing measures to
Modify the Risk
➢ Risk Treatment includes its Major Elements, Risk Control & Mitigation, and further
extends to Risk Avoidance, Risk Transfer & Risk Financing etc While the workload
has been increasing,
➢ Any System of Risk Treatment should provide us is minimum as:
▪ Effective and Efficient operation of an Organization
▪ Operational Efficiency Increases
▪ Better Resources Allocation through the enhancement of the Risk Management
▪ Valuable Internal / External Controls on Vulnerable
▪ Ensure the Compliance with Laws and Regulations
▪ Develop Control over the Schedule and Cost
▪ On-time Delivery and Customers / Clients Satisfaction
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
RISK TREATMENT PLAN (RTPs)
➢Risk Treatment means the process of Selection and
Implementation of measures to Modify Risk
➢The process of producing the RTPs can be described
in terms of a Series of Steps. For Example
▪ step 1 – Identify the Events
▪ step 2 - Identify the Assets
▪ step 3 – Identify the Impacts
▪ step 4 – Identify the Threats
▪ step 5 – Produce the RTPs
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
Guidelines for Risk Vs Impact Assessment
MEASUREMENT OF LIKELIHOOD MEASUREMENT OF SEVERITY
(PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE) (POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCE)
DESCRIPTION
LEVEL
DESCRIPTION (S)
LEVEL (L) DESCRIPTOR
(FREQUENCY) PEOPLE /
EQUIPMENT /
LOGISTICS ENVIRONMENT
PRODUCT
SUPPORT
WILL CERTAINLY OCCUR IN MULTIPLE EXPENSIVE
5 ALMOST CERTAIN
MOST OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES 5 FATALITIES DAMAGE
MASSIVE EFFECT

WILL PROBABLY OCCUR MOST

4 LIKELY
OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES 4 SINGLE FATALITY MAJOR DAMAGE MAJOR EFFECT

MAJOR HEALTH LOCALIZED LOCALIZED

3 POSSIBLE MAY OCCUR AT SOME TIME 3 EFFECT INJURY DAMAGE EFFECT
MINOR HEALTH
MAY OCCUR IN SOME EFFECT INJURY
2 UN-LIKELY
OPTIONAL CIRCUMSTANCE 2 MINOR DAMAGE MAJOR EFFECT

HAVE NEVER HEARD OF SUCH SLIGHT HEALTH

1 HIGHLY UN-LIKELY
HAPPENING 1 EFFECT INJURY
SLIGHT DAMAGE SLIGHT EFFECT
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
RISK MANAGEMENT MATRIX
LIKELIHOOD (L) EXAMPLES :
(LEVEL) RISK IMPACT = (LXS)

S 1 2 3 4 5 LOW RISK 4X1=4

E
V
E 2 4 6 8 10
R
I 3 6 9 12 15 MEDIUM RISK 4X3=12
T
Y
(S) 4 8 12 16 20

5 10 15 20 25 HIGH RISK 5X5=25

1-6 LOW RISK 8 – 12 MEDIUM 15 – 25 HIGH RISK

LEGEND : RISK
 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
40

RISK MANAGEMENT MATRIX

 Risk and Safety Concept in Industry / Organization
41

Risk Matrix Calculation

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THANKS

Q&A