RESEARCH PROPOSAL

ASSESSING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF MANGROVES

IN BALOCHISTAN USING REMOTE SENSING DATA

Prepared By

Shakila Nazar
23-MS-IWRM-11

Supervisor: Dr.Kamran Ansari

Co-Supervisor: Dr. Ghulam Hussain Dars

U.S.-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water Mehran University of Engineering

and Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan

January 2025
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION:....................................................................................................................3
LITERATURE REVIEW:..........................................................................................................4
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH:..................................................................................6
PROBLEM STATEMENT:........................................................................................................6
OBJECTIVES:...........................................................................................................................6
RESEARCH QUESTION..........................................................................................................7
STUDY AREA...........................................................................................................................7
METHODOLOGY:....................................................................................................................7
EXPECTED OUTCOME...........................................................................................................9
REFERENCES...........................................................................................................................9
INTRODUCTION:
The coastal regions of Balochistan, characterized by their unique ecological and climatic
conditions, are of significant environmental and economic importance. These areas are home
to diverse ecosystems, including mangrove forests, which play a critical role in coastal
protection, carbon sequestration, and supporting marine biodiversity. However, these
ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to anthropogenic activities, climate change, and
natural processes. Evaluating the spatial and temporal variations of mangrove ecosystems
over the past two decades provides critical insights into their health and resilience, enabling
the development of effective conservation and management strategies.

Mangroves are unique coastal ecosystems that provide a range of vital benefits to the
environment and the people living near coastal areas. The integration of remote sensing
technologies offers a robust approach for monitoring these ecosystems, allowing for high-
resolution spatial and temporal analysis of changes along the Balochistan coast.

In addition to ecological changes,

understanding climatic patterns such as
precipitation and temperature is crucial for
assessing the broader environmental dynamics
of the region. Coastal Balochistan, being part
of an arid and semi-arid zone, experiences
significant climate variability that impacts
water resources, agriculture, and the
livelihoods of coastal communities. Analyzing
historical and recent trends in precipitation and temperature is essential to understanding the
drivers of climate change and their implications for environmental sustainability in the
region. However, in recent years, these mangroves have been experiencing a rapid decline
due to the escalating impacts of climate change. Rising sea levels, increasing land and sea
surface temperatures, and more frequent coastal flooding have accelerated the degradation of
mangrove ecosystems. Human activities, such as deforestation, pollution, and unsustainable
land use practices, have further worsened the situation, putting these forests at greater risk.

As mangroves disappear, the consequences are severe. The loss of mangroves weakens the
natural defense against coastal erosion and floods, leaving coastal communities more
vulnerable to natural disasters. These communities, who depend on the mangrove forests for
resources like fish, wood, and protection from storms, face serious economic challenges.
Many are being forced to relocate due to the deterioration of their environment and the loss of
their primary sources of income.

Given the critical importance of mangroves for both environmental protection and the well-
being of coastal populations, it is essential to study their temporal and spatial variations.
Understanding how mangroves are changing over time, especially in relation to rising land
surface temperatures, will provide valuable insights into the underlying causes of their
decline. Such research can inform conservation strategies, enabling policymakers and
environmental managers to develop better solutions for preserving these ecosystems and
safeguarding the livelihoods of the people who depend on them.

This study, therefore, aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of both ecological and
climatic dynamics along the Balochistan coast, contributing to informed decision-making and
sustainable management of its natural resources.

LITERATURE REVIEW:
The analysis of precipitation and temperature trends is critical for understanding climatic
patterns in coastal regions, particularly in arid and semi-arid zones like Balochistan. Various
studies have highlighted the increasing variability in precipitation and temperature in these
regions due to climate change and its associated impacts.

Mangrove ecosystems play a vital role in coastal protection and supporting marine
biodiversity (Lee et al., 2014). Found in tropical and subtropical regions, they act as natural
barriers against storms, waves, and coastal erosion. Globally, mangroves have been
recognized for their ability to store more carbon per hectare than terrestrial forests, making
them crucial in the fight against climate change (McLeod and Salm, 2006). However, due to
climate change and human activities like deforestation, urban expansion, and pollution,
mangroves are rapidly declining. Studies show that in the last 50 years, over 35% of the
world’s mangroves have been lost (Alongi, 2022). This decline not only disrupts coastal
ecosystems but also impacts millions of people who depend on mangroves for their
livelihoods, including fishing, fuelwood, and coastal protection. Several international efforts,
including restoration programs, have been launched to protect and restore mangrove forests,
though challenges remain.
Pakistan's coastline, stretching along the Arabian Sea, is home to one of the largest mangrove
ecosystems in South Asia, primarily located in the Indus Delta. These mangroves are crucial
for stabilizing coastlines, supporting fisheries, and protecting against storm surges. However,
Pakistan's mangroves have faced significant degradation over the years due to reduced
freshwater flow from the Indus River, industrial pollution, deforestation, and coastal
development. The construction of dams and barrages has altered the natural flow of water,
increasing salinity levels in the delta, which negatively impacts mangrove health. According
to research, Pakistan lost a significant portion of its mangrove cover in the late 20th century.
However, efforts have been made to restore mangroves, including large-scale plantation
programs in collaboration with international environmental organizations. Despite these
efforts, the ongoing pressure from industrial and urban development continues to threaten
these vital ecosystems.

Ahmed et al. (2021) investigated temperature and precipitation patterns across Pakistan,
including the coastal areas of Balochistan. The study observed significant warming trends
over the last two decades, with coastal regions experiencing prolonged dry spells and a
decline in annual rainfall. These changes have been linked to global warming and shifting
monsoon patterns.

Similarly, Zaheer et al. (2020) focused on the implications of climate variability in

Balochistan, emphasizing the Arabian Sea's influence on coastal temperatures. The findings
suggest that sea surface temperature anomalies strongly correlate with the region's extreme
temperature and precipitation events, affecting local ecosystems and water availability.

In another study, Shah et al. (2019) utilized remote sensing data and climate models to
analyze precipitation patterns in southern Pakistan. The results indicated a high degree of
inter-annual variability in rainfall in the coastal belt of Balochistan, influenced by regional
atmospheric circulation systems such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This
study underscores the importance of integrating satellite data with ground observations for
robust climate assessments.

The global perspective provided by the IPCC (2021) further supports these findings. The
report identifies coastal regions worldwide, including Balochistan, as vulnerable to rising
temperatures and erratic precipitation. It predicts that these trends will exacerbate water
scarcity and pose significant challenges to sustainable development in arid coastal zones.
With its long coastline, Balochistan is home to several important mangrove forests,
particularly along the Jiwani, Gwadar, and Pasni coasts (bin Amin Khanum and Naazer,
2024). These mangroves provide essential services, including protection from coastal erosion,
supporting local fisheries, and acting as nurseries for marine species. However, the
mangroves in Balochistan are among the most vulnerable in Pakistan. Due to increasing
temperatures, sea-level rise, and more frequent coastal flooding, the mangrove ecosystems
here are under serious threat. Additionally, the region's socio-economic conditions and lack of
sustainable management practices have accelerated the degradation of these forests. Local
communities, heavily dependent on mangroves for fishing and coastal protection, face
increased hardship as the forests decline. Studies focusing on Balochistan’s mangroves are
limited compared to other parts of Pakistan, underscoring the need for further research to
assess the impact of climate change and human activities on these ecosystems and to develop
conservation strategies tailored to the region.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH:

This research is essential for understanding how climate change, particularly rising land
surface temperatures and precipitation, is affecting mangrove ecosystems along the
Balochistan coast. Mangroves play a vital role in protecting coastlines, supporting
biodiversity, and sustaining local communities. Using remote sensing technologies, the study
will analyze changes in spatial and temporal coverage of mangrove cover, temperature and
precipitation. The findings will provide valuable insights for conservation, enhance coastal
resilience, and contribute to sustainable management strategies for vulnerable regions.

PROBLEM STATEMENT:

Due to the impacts of climate change, the Balochistan coastline is increasingly vulnerable to
environmental stressors. Coastal flooding, rising temperatures, and changing weather patterns
have degraded mangrove ecosystems, which play a crucial role in protecting the coastline and
supporting local livelihoods. The loss of mangroves exacerbates the vulnerability of coastal
communities, leaving them with fewer resources for food and forcing migration. There is a
pressing need to understand how mangrove cover has changed over time and how these
changes correlate with trends in land surface temperature, which could provide insights into
both the degradation processes and potential strategies for mitigation.
OBJECTIVES:
1. To evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of mangrove ecosystems along the
Balochistan coast from 2000 to 2024 using remote sensing data.

2. To analyze precipitation and land surface temperature trends of coastal area

Balochistan

RESEARCH QUESTION
1. What are the spatial and temporal changes in mangrove ecosystems along the
Balochistan coast between 2000 and 2024?
2. What is the relationship between precipitation and temperature patterns in the coastal
areas of Balochistan?

STUDY AREA
The coastal region of Balochistan (Figure 1), Pakistan, is home to valuable mangrove
ecosystems primarily located in the Miani Hor, Sonmiani, Kalmat Khor, and Gwadar Bay
areas. The arid climate, limited freshwater inflow, and increasing anthropogenic pressures
such as deforestation, pollution, and climate change pose significant challenges to
ecosystems, making them a vital subject for research.

Figure 1: Study Area__Mangrove along the coastal region of Balochistan

METHODOLOGY:
The research approach for this research is presented in Figure 2 below. The data required to
evaluate mangrove forest dynamics consists of remote sensing imagery, precipitation, and
temperature data (Table 1).

Figure 2: Research Methodology

Table 1: Data type, source and description

Data/ Description Data Source

Landsat series, Sentinel-2 (for Mangrove cover estimation) NASA Earth data/USGS Earth Explorer

TRMM, SMAP, Sentinel-3 (for precipitation) CHIRPS portal

Sentinel-2, MODIS, Landsat series (for land surface temperature) NASA Earth data

Objective 1: Evaluate the Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Mangrove Forests

To achieve this objective, Sentinel-2 and Landsat satellite imagery will be acquired for
multiple time periods to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of mangrove forests along
the Balochistan coastline. The methodology involves:

Data Acquisition and Preprocessing:

o Sentinel-2 and Landsat images will be obtained from reliable sources such as
Google Earth Engine or USGS Earth Explorer.

o Images will undergo preprocessing, including radiometric and atmospheric

corrections, to ensure data consistency and accuracy.
Mangrove Forest Classification:
Land cover classification techniques will be applied to identify mangrove forest areas.
Advanced classification algorithms, such as Maximum likelihood classification, Random
Forest or Support Vector Machine (SVM), will be utilized to distinguish mangroves from
other land cover types. Temporal classification will be performed for multiple years of
satellite imagery to detect changes in mangrove distribution over time.

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Dynamics:

The extent and density of mangrove forests will be mapped and compared across the selected
time periods to assess changes in area and spatial patterns. Metrics such as rate of change, or
hotspots of mangrove gain, or loss will be calculated to provide insights into mangrove
dynamics.

Objective 2: Evaluate precipitation and temperature trend

Precipitation trend:
Data collection
This objective requires two data sets.
1. CHIRPS (for precipitation)
2. MODIS (land surface temperature)
CHIRPS provides precipitation data at a high spatial resolution of 0.05° (~5.5 km), which
will be used to analyze rainfall patterns over the study period. The MODIS dataset,
specifically the MOD11A1 (Terra) and MYD11A1 (Aqua) products, offers daily and
aggregated LST data at a 1 km spatial resolution.
Data processing
Precipitation and LST datasets will be clipped to the area's boundary using GIS tools to focus
exclusively on the coastal region of Balochistan. Depending on the analysis requirements, the
CHIRPS data will be aggregated into monthly or annual totals. Similarly, the MODIS LST
data will undergo cloud masking and interpolation to handle missing values and derive clean,
usable data. The temperature data will also be aggregated into monthly or annual averages for
further analysis
Data Analysis.
The temporal trend in precipitation and land surface temperature will be examined over 24
years to identify patterns and significant changes. Seasonal and annual averages will be
calculated to capture long-term variations. Spatial distribution maps will be created to
visualize the patterns of precipitation and LST across the region. Furthermore, correlation
analyses will investigate the interrelationship between precipitation and LST, emphasizing
how changes in one variable may influence the other in this region.
EXPECTED OUTCOME
1. Mangrove density is expected to decline until 2016 and increase afterward due to the
2016 plantation program.

2. The study will provide historic precipitation, land surface temperature and highlight
climate change indicators affecting the region.

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