TRENDS, NETWORKS, AND CRITICAL THINKING IN THE 21ST CENTURY

3rd Quarter
2. Drivers of Change
I. FADS VS TRENDS o Internal and external pressure that shapes change
o Not only people but includes other triggers such as
TRENDS technological advancements, political events, economic
 “General direction in which something is developing or changing” crises, environmental concerns, pandemics, etc.
 It is what we experience when something changes or evolves along a 3. Innovation
specific path. Start-ups, new products, services, experiences, and campaigns
Examples: proper diet and regular exercise that are resolving points of customer tension, and creating new
 Have identifiable and explainable rises that are driven by audience needs levels of customer expectation.
FADS
Characteristics of a Trend
 “Intense and widely shared enthusiasm for something, especially one
that is short-lived and without basis in the object’s qualities” (Trend Spotter)
 Tends to be more fleeting in existence 1. Duration of time
 Examples: fat-melting belt, slimming pills that guarantee results in one o Long-staying power and enjoying a long period of popularity
week 2. Acceptability and Versatility
o Popularly accepted, followed, tolerated, or practiced by many
 Both fads and trends are products of people’s reactions to events industries and people/groups of people
 The nature of fads and trends can both be tangible and non-tangible 3. Cultural Basis
 Some fads last longer than others, and can even help determine a trend o Trends are rooted in the people’s cultural traditions, beliefs, and
(e.g. “low calorie” fad waned after studies showed that it is the intake of values.
sugar, not calories, as the culprit of weight gain) 4. Transitory increase or decrease
o Trends show a transitory increase or decrease of a particular
David Zach idea, event, or phenomenon (trend’s volatility)
 one must be able to notice fads, and work and plan with trends 5. Human needs-driven
 the quick entry and surge of popularity of fads also mark the manner of o Trends are driven by human needs, wants, and desires.
their exit –fast and often unnoticed. 6. Dependency in Multiple points of Convergence
 Analogy: If compared to a river, fads are the waves, while trends are the o Materialize from the fringes, not in the mainstream
currents.
Importance of Knowing Fads and Trends
Colleen Dilenschneider  To dig into the reasons why fads exist and identify more long-term and
 A fad is any kind of behavior that is intensely followed by a population sustainable alternatives (trends)
for a short period of time. It will rise quickly and then fall relatively  Fads are indicators of what consumers want to do, achieve, and/or
quickly once the perception of novelty is gone. experience leading to the identification of consistent and lasting trends
 Knowledge of trends must be put into practical use (especially for
CATEGORIES FAD TREND businesspeople, entrepreneurs, marketing people, doctors, educators,
notion of The new things we do the way we do things teachers, book writers, and sellers, among others).
change fade when the  Having foresight, hindsight, and knowing the background and all available
perception of novelty is details will lead to more informed decisions and decisive actions (the skills
gone critical in predicting trends and patterns)
behavior Intense Sustained behavior that
turns into a lifestyle, II. SYSTEMS THINKING
mindset, & values
effects “coolness,” “what’s in,” Meet the needs, solves “Everything is connected to everything else. Real life is lived in a complex
me-too mentality problems and issues; world system where all subsystems overlap and affect each other.”
improve well-being ~Draper Kauffman
time & nature of Appears suddenly, appears suddenly,
growth enormously popular, enormously popular, Systems Thinking
suddenly disappears identifiable and explainable  a frame of mind that invokes thinking about the whole process and the
rises, does not disappear interdependence among the processes rather than focusing on just one
quickly, sticks around, gets part of the system
stronger over time;  a new perspective and way of understanding reality. It emphasizes the
scope & Stays within one Can cross over many relationships among a system’s parts and seeing the whole picture rather
limitations company, single companies, and than the parts themselves
brand/limited brands encompasses entire areas  focuses on how the thing being studied interacts with the other part of the
of technologies system
 new language for communicating about the complexities and
Fundamental Elements in a Trend interdependencies in a visual way
1. Basic Needs
o Physiological and safety needs Peter Michael Senge

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  American systems scientist who wrote the book entitled The Fifth  A technique for taking one step back to get a broader perspective
Disciple: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization in which he  Created by Edward de Bono and introduced in his book “Serious
stated: “Systems Thinking is a way of thinking about, and a language of Creativity,” the concept fan helps one find new approaches to
describing and understanding the forces and interrelationships that problem-solving when all obvious solutions have been rejected
shape the behavior of systems…”
3. Causal Loop
Importance of Systems Thinking  A tool to map out the patterns of relationships within dynamic systems
 expands the range of choices available for solving a problem  Provides a way to visually to represent our understanding of a system
 makes us aware that there are no perfect solutions structure
 provides tools to describe and communicate our understanding of  More importantly, it captures our mental model of systems
systems
 serves as a diagnostic tool that surfaces one’s mental models which
contain deeply-ingrained beliefs and assumptions Three Components of Causal Loops
1. Theme –the situation or issue that needed solution/s
The Iceberg Model 2. Variables – represent parts of the system that may either increase or
decrease
3. Links, Arrows, and Symbols –these show the relation and direction
between variables

Below are the languages and symbols used to illustrate causal

loops:

Causal link (and vice-versa)

Same direction s +
Opposite direction o -
Reinforcing loop R Even +

R
Peter Senge’s 11 Laws of Systems Thinking
1. Today’s problems come from yesterday’s solutions Balancing loop B Odd -
2. The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back
3. Behavior grows better before it grows worse
4. The easy way out leads back in
5. The cure can be worse than the disease
6. Faster is slower
7. Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space
B
8. Small changes can produce big results –but the areas of highest
leverage are often the least obvious
9. You can have your cake and eat it too –but not all at once
10. Dividing an elephant in half does not produce two small elephants Habits of a System Thinker by Waters
11. There is no blame Foundation

Tools in Systems Thinking 1. Seeks to understand the big picture

1. Affinity Diagram
 A tool that gathers large amounts of data such as ideas, opinions, A systems thinker focuses on the big picture and does not
issues, facts –and organizes them into groupings based on their get lost in problematizing the details. Details are important,
natural relationships but the systems thinker does not expend all his/her energy
 Introduced to the world by Kawakita Jiro, a Japanese geographer, and in working out details
cultural anthropologist.
 also called the “KJ method”
2. Identifies the circular nature of complex cause and
2. The Concept Fan effect relationships

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 A systems thinker knows that every effect is an outcome of 20 rule, a systems thinker looks for the 20% that can make
a cause. The systems thinker finds out that cause, instead 80% (or more) of the changes.
of overanalyzing the symptoms.

3. Considers an issue fully and resists the urge to come

to a quick conclusion
A system thinker does not succumb to the temptation of
suddenly generating conclusions. Indeed, s/he goes back
to the big picture and analyzes the processes that brought
about the issue

4. Observe how elements within systems change over

time, generating patterns and trends
A system thinker knows the difference between fads and
trends and works with the latter

5. Changes perspectives to increase understanding

A system thinker is always willing to discard old views and
perspectives when they are not working, and subscribe to
new lenses to improve understanding of things

6. Considers how mental models affect current reality and

the future
A system thinker always endeavors to dig deep into mental
models and from there, either destroy those or retain to
solve the current problem. In making decisions, a systems
thinker makes others realize up to what extent mental
models affect rationale and sound decision-making, and
what decision-makers can do about it

7. Recognizes that a system’s structure generates its

behavior
Instead of focusing on blaming others, a system thinker
knows that everything that happens in a system and to a
system is because of the structures and processes of the
said system. Therefore, s/he looks inside rather than
outside.

8. Surfaces and tests assumptions

Contingent to item 6, a system thinker challenges mental
models and deeply-ingrained assumptions by asking the
question “What if?”

9. Uses understanding of system structure to identify

possible leverage actions
A systems thinker always looks for the smallest aspect in
the system that can make lasting effects. Similar to the 80-
III. STRATEGIC ANALYSIS AND INTUITIVE THINKING
Strategic Analysis and Intuitive Thinking Defined

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 Strategic analysis refers to a system or method that requires deliberate, abstract, and effortful thinking that breaks down a complex problem into parts.
Deliberate thinking employs a detailed examination of a problem to come up with a solution. This involves looking at the context of the problem. The amount of
time and resources are the primary factors in strategic analysis. The most common
strategic analysis model used in decision-making follows five steps as illustrated in the
diagram below. (Arzadon, 2018)

The process above requires you to follow a pattern to creatively address a

situation. This involves strategic thinking. Another focus of this lesson is for you to
engage in decision-making activities that will allow you to apply decision-making methods. Strategic analysis is relevant in addressing your personal issues as a
student. It means that you can also analyze your own strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to make creative strategies or solutions in facing life
challenges. In practice, a personal SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threat/s) will help you understand your personal issues and goals as well as
construct effective ways of dealing with both. This is illustrated through the personal SWOT analysis shown on the next page, which presents that of a student
who wishes to finish high school with good grades.

Intuitive thinking is “quick and ready insight” (Webster’s New Collegiate Dictionary). It is another approach to decision-making. This is the ability to
understand something instinctively without the need for conscious reasoning. Sometimes, it is referred to as gut feeling, sixth sense, inner sense, instinct, inner
voice, spiritual guide, etc. Intuitive thinking is affected by how one feels and defines a thing or event. Particular norms and value systems within a community are
considered when making decisions. For example, among some indigenous people, their farmers would not touch certain places in the field like an anthill. When
asked why they do avoid such places, they cannot cite any pragmatic reason. It was just intuition. Maybe they will say that nuno sa punso (a mythical dwarf-like
creature), lives in those places. Soil scientists said that such is a sound practice because anthills are necessary to maintain the physical, chemical, and biological
health of the soil.
Intuitive decision-making is far more than using common sense because it involves additional sensors to perceive and get aware of the information
from outside.
In dealing with everyday life issues and situations, we are called to make immediate decisions based on our ‘gut’ feelings and prior knowledge and
experiences. This type of decision-making is evident in various situations: a doctor assessing an emergency case; a teacher determining the reason for a child’s
inattentiveness in class; a buyer examining which vegetable to buy; and a firefighter trying to rescue a fire victim. In these cases, one would not hesitate or delay
making decisions because these situations need immediate action. The question is now whether rational reasoning or intuitive decision-making is generally
better. The question is rather how both approaches can be best combined for the best results and to avoid mistakes and
prejudices. The Venn Diagram below shows some similarities and differences betweenstrategic analysis and intuitive thinking.

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Using Intuitive Thinking in Social Networks

Each person is engaged in a variety of networks associated with his or her multiple roles and interests in the community. According to Arzadon et.al.
(2017), these networks can be, among others, political, economic, and sociocultural.
Your political networks are composed of relations with government officials, student government, and community leaders, among others.
The economic networks you belong to cover the manufacturers, agents, and sellers of the goods you consume such as those in stores, groceries,
markets, and malls as well as money lenders.
Your sociocultural or social networks are those belonging to your dance troupe, choir, reading club, band, arts club, or theater company. Kinship
ties, neighborhood associations, friendship clubs, and veterans’ associations also belong to the social network wherein people constantly engage in close
communication and interaction through visits, phone calls, text messages, and activities of common interest.

Social networks appear as clusters and support groups of people who share similar interests, backgrounds, and real-life connections. They are
avenues for meeting new friends, reuniting with old and lost friends, exchanging gifts and favors, and developing cooperation. The community is home to this
web of interrelations and interconnections of people and institutions. Community refers to a particular geographic location with people living under the same set
of laws and recognizing common leaders. Studies of community linkages deal usually with who was seen interacting with whom.
Another concept in the study of social ties is the center of influence. This is the person to whom people gravitate around. This person who can give
favors, can command, and make things happen. Examples of center of influence are the mayor, judge, barangay captain, school principal, and university
president, among others. His or her influence transcends the boundaries of social networks and thus reaches other kinds of networks. A center of influence has
many people and institutions attached to him or her, thereby creating a substantial influence in the community.

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