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Rainfall runoff simulation using MIKE11 NAM

Article in Malaysian Journal of Civil Engineering · January 2007

DOI: 10.11113/mjce.v14.15644 · Source: OAI

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 JURNAL KEJURUTERAAN AWAM (JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING) Vol. 15 No. 2, 2002

RAINFALL RUNOFF SIMULATION USING

MIKE11 NAM

Supiah Shamsudin, M.Sc

Normala Hashim, M.Sc.
Faculty of Civil Engineering
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
81300 UTM-Skudai, Johor

ABSTRACT

Rainfall runoff estimation from a watershed is of vital importance as these values

are required in most hydrologic analysis for the purpose of water resources
planning. This study deals with Layang River rainfall runoff estimation using
MIKE 11 NAM model. The calibration and validation procedures were carried
out to provide a satisfactory estimation. The runoff discharges were simulated
for a 12-year period (1988-2000). The simulated peak flow occurred in 1992
and 1995 with approximate values of 20.94 m3/s and 18.93 m3/s respectively.
The optimum values of the model parameters obtained during the calibration
procedure were presented. The reliability of MIKE11 NAM was evaluated based
on the Efficiency Index (EI) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The EI and
RMSE obtained during this study are 0.75 and 0.08 respectively.

INTRODUCTION

Rainfall runoff estimation from a watershed is of vital importance as these values

are required in most hydrologic analysis for the purpose of water resources
planning, flood forecasting, pollution control and many other applications.
Modeling the rainfall-runoff process is a complex activity as it is influenced by a
number of implicit and explicit factors such as precipitation distribution,
evaporation, transpiration, abstraction, watershed topography, and soil types.
The runoff discharges and flow rates at a river sites varies greatly throughout the
course of a year, depending on seasonal rainfall, watershed characteristics and
many other parameters. These variables greatly increase the modeling effort and
time and in turn provides ample opportunities for research endeavors.

0128-0147/98 ©Faculty of Civil Engineering,UTM.

 JURNAL KEJURUTERAAN AWAM (JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING) Vol. 15 No. 2 2002

Various model have been developed to solve the rainfall runoff relationship in
engineering research and practices. The widely known rainfall runoff models
identified are the Rational Method (McPherson, 1969), Soil Conservation
Service-Curve Number Method (Maidment, 1993), and Green and Ampt Method
(Green, 1911). The more complex models which should provide better runoff
estimation are continuously being researched and developed. Some of the
complex models identified are Genetic Danish MIKE11 NAM (1972). The
choice and validity of the model depends on the type of problem, the data
availability and the decision to be made.

The objective of this study is to estimate the rainfall runoff discharges of Sungai
Layang watershed using MIKE11 NAM model. The long term simulation (1988-
2000) was carried out based on the available rainfall and evaporation data. The
calibration and validation procedures of the model were carried out to provide a
satisfactory estimation. This rainfall runoff study is vital for the purpose of
Layang reservoir water quality amelioration.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Site Descriptions

There are two reservoirs within the Layang catchment area; Upper Layang
reservoir and Lower Layang reservoir. Upper Layang resevoir is in Masai, 40km
north east of Johor Bahru City. The reservoir is situated in the undulating area
and surrounded by hills. The maximum altitude is 160m and minimum altitude is
30m above mean sea level. The Upper Layang catchment is located
approximately within the coordinates of 1o30’N and 1o36’N latitudes and
103o50’E and 104o00’E longitudes with an average catchment slope of 1.6%. It
constitutes the south-western part of the State of Johor. Upper Layang catchment
is one of the major hydrological sources that produce runoff for the reservoir.
Sungai Layang is the main river that drains into the reservoir.

Lower Layang Reservoir is on the eastern part of the Upper Layang Reservoir.
The drainage basin for Hilir Layang Reservoir is 20.5 km2. The total drainage
basins for both reservoirs is 50.0 km2. Water outflow from both catchment is
about 40 MFD. At the present time, the outflow rate of water from the intake
tower to the water treatment plant is 28.5 MGD. These areas are shown in Figure
1.

The surrounding tributaries and their activities around the catchment area are
summarized in Table 1.

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Table 1 : Summary of Activities Within Sungai Layang Watershed

Reservoir Tributary Activities Around The Tributary

Kampong Penorogo 50 houses, human waste and chicken
breeding
Upper Layang Felcra Ban Foo Agriculture, chicken and pig breeding
Reservoir
Ladang Plentong Es Fish farming, illegal houses

Ladang Keck Seng Commercialized palm tree plantation

Lower Layang
Reservoir Ladang Bukit Layang Palm tree estate, domestic waste

Ladang Sungai Tiram Palm tree estate, domestic waste

Figure 1 : Map showing location of Layang River and Reservoirs

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Mike11 NAM

MIKE11 NAM model was applied primarily because of its ability to simulate the
watershade physical processes in more detail. MIKE11 NAM model is a
watershed lumped-parameter model which are highly relevant with this particular
watershed under study and the long term flow simulation desired. In addition, it
is a complete and effective modeling software with the adds-on module which
allows flexibility for future investigation. The MIKE11 was applied because of
its availability in the Hydraulic and Hydrology Department, Universiti Teknologi
Malaysia.

MIKE11 NAM is a professional engineering software package developed by

Danish Hydraulic Institute, Denmark. This one-dimensional modeling tool
developed since 1972 has been accepted worldwide especially for water
resources, water quality planning and management applications (DHI).
Specifically the MIKE 11 software is meant for simulation of flows, water
quality and sediment transport in estuaries, rivers, irrigation systems, channels
and other water bodies. The MIKE11 NAM, the watershed lumped and
conceptual rainfall-runoff model regarded watershed as one unit and the
conceptual model are based on considerations of the physical processes (Mike 11
User Manual).

Data Requirements for the MIKE11 NAM model consist of

i) Setup parameters – catchment area, topography and soil properties.

ii) Model parameters – time constants and threshold values for routing
of overland flow, interflow and baseflow.
iii) Meterological data – precipitation and potential evaporation.
iv) Streamflow data fpr the model calibration.

The reliability of the MIKE11 NAM was evaluated based on the Efficiency Index
(EI) as described by Nash and Sutcliffe (1970). There were several related
studies available for model performance evaluation such as by Aitken (1973) and
Fleming (1975). The procedure by Nash and Sutcliffe (1970) had been widely
used for the detection of systematic errors with respect to long term simulation.
The EI was developed to evaluate the percentage of accuracy or goodness of the
simulated values with respect to their observed values. The EI as described by
Nash and Sutcliffe (1970) are as follows :

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The Efficiency Index (EI) equal to 1 indicates the best (perfect) performance of
the model.

Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) method used by Fleming (1975) was another
method applied to evaluate the reliability of MIKE11 during this study. This
method can be regarded as a measure of absolute error between the computed
and observed flows. RMSE values tend to be zero for perfect agreement between
observed and simulated values. RMSE is defined as follows :-

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Input Data

The rainfall and evaporation data were monitored and gathered by the relevant
authorities in Malaysia. The rainfall data applied for MIKE11 was obtained from
Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) Ampang, Kuala Lumpur, while the
evaporation data was obtained from the Malaysia Meterological Service (MMS),
Petaling Jaya, Selangor. Daily rainfall data for 12-year period 1988 – 2000 for
Layang Watershed obtained from DID Station No. 1539301 was applied. There
were some missing rainfall and evaporation data observed during this study. The
missing data values was treated by applying the Arithmetic Mean Method
(Maidment, 1993). The rainfall data from Lim Lim Station, Plentong Station and
Tiram Stations were utilized for the missing value estimation using the method
above. The related rainfall station used for the study are shown in Table 2 :

Table 2 : List of the Station Number

Location Station No. Latitude Longitude

Plentong Estate, Johor Bahru 1538117 01o 32’ 05” 103o 50’ 40”
Tiram Estate, Johor Bahru 1539134 01o 35’ 15” 103o 55’ 05”
Lim Lim Estate, Johor Bahru 1539136 01o 31’ 15” 103o 59’ 30”
Layang River Water 1539001 01o 33’ 25” 103o 55’ 30”
Treatment Plant

The reliability of the rainfall data was tested by double mass curve method
(Gupta, 1989) as shown in Figure 2. The straight line graph obtained indicated
that the data is consistent. Non straight line graph would appear if the data have
been subjected to various changes such as changes in recoding station or shift in
observation practices.

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Figure 2 : Rainfall Data Reliability Testing by Double Mass Curve

The areal precipitation or the representative precipitation over a defined area was
required for the MIKE11 NAM computation. The areal precipitation was
computed from point precipitation by Thiessen polygon method (Gupta, 1989).
The point precipitation was obtained from the record of a group of rainfall
gauges within the area. The percentage weight to denote the degree of influenced
of the individual rainfall station over the watershed rainfall was calculated. The
percentage weights were obtained by considering the proportion of its
representative area.

The area obtained for the total Layang watershed area was 33.89 km2. the
Layang River sub-watershed area was 4.036 km2. The areal precipitation was
computed by multiplying the precipitation at each station and their calculated
percentage weight. The percentage weights were used for the Mean Areal
Rainfall (MAR) input, in the MIKE11 model. The percentage weights input into
the MIKE11 model are shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Weight for MEAN AREAL RAINFALL computation in MIKE 11

Total Area = 33.89 km2

Station Rainfall Station Theissen Percentage Weight

Area (km2) Weight (5)
A Layang Water 16.99 50 0.5
Treatment Plant
B Plentong Estate 13.56 40 0.4
C Ulu Tiram Estate 3.89 10 0.1

A weir with a 90o V-notch was constructed for flow measurement for the purpose
of model calibration. The weir was constructed according to the British Standard
BS 3680: Part 4A: 1981. (Methods of measurement of Liquid Flow – Part 4A.
Thin-plate weirs). The site selected for the weir installation (as stated in the BS
3680: Part 4A: 1981) must have a uniform and steady approach channel. The
weir was constructed with the crest level height of 0.35m above datum. The weir
was constructed from a 10 mm Perspex sheet, put in position with a 7.5 mm
diameter, PVC pipe filled with cement. An asphalt sheen was screwed to the
bottom part of the weir and laid down in the upstream direction of the river to
ensure a acomplete volume of discharges flowing through the weir. The weir
was calibrated at the Hydraulics and Hydrology Laboratory to determine the
coefficient of discharge (Cd) value which was 0.61. The twelve (12) months
(October 1999 – September 2000), flow data observed from the constructed weir
was used for the calibration procedure in the MIKE11 NAM model. The daily
water level was monitored using the water level recorder SPOHR QP1 of
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Mestechnik, Germany. The water level recorder was established at the stream
site, which enables continuous observation of water level. The stage height was
set up for the purpose of recording the height of the water surface in a stream
above a fix datum. The fornightly check-up is required for the water level
recorder.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

The application of MIKE 11 model for rainfall runoff estimation can be divided
into two (2) stages. The first stage is the calibration process to determine an
optimum values of the model parameters. The second stage is the streamflow
simulation using the estimated model parameter during the calibration process.

In the calibration procedure, several model parameters have to be adjusted using

trial and error to obtain optimum values. These optimum values are considered
as the representative coefficient to determine the runoff within the catchment
area. Table 4 illustrates the final values of parameters that has been adjusted in
the calibration process. Some parameters were highly sensitive to changes as
shown in Table 5. The calibration had been carried out using records of daily
rainfall and runoff from October 1999 to September 2000. Figure 3 represents
the results of simulated and observed flow in the MIKE11 model calibration.
Obviously, it can be seen that the MIKE 11 model cannot easily incorporate the
peak discharges in the model optimization. The factors that contribute to the
calibration inaccuracy are problems in data acquisitions, the nature of rainfall
pattern and flood problem.

The on site data acquisition problems are the accessibility for regular
maintenance and disturbance due to animals in the forest. The nature of rainfall
pattern is spatial resulting in an uneven rainfall distribution within the catchment
area. This factor directly affect the rainfall-runoff model calibration. The
unexpected flood surrounding the gauging site would certainly damage the data
acquisition system and reduce the accessibility for observation and maintenance.
Flood during March 2000 that occurred within the study site add more missing
data and create problem to the calibration process. The problem of missing data
was handled by the application of adjustment. The adjustment procedure employ
the interpolation and method of proportion in the rainfall-runoff relationship.

The flow series are simulated based on the daily rainfall for the 12-year period,
1988 to 2000. Figure 4 demonstrates the simulated daily flow for the Layang
Reservoir (1988 – 2000). The simulated peak flow occur in 1992 and 1994 with
approximate values are 20.94 m3/s and 18.93 m3/s respectively. The streamflow
validation curve from June 1998 to July 1998 is shown in Figure 5.

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Zamri Mohd (2000) obtained maximum simulated runoff values of 30.05 m3/s
and 25.5 m3/s in 1992 and 1994 respectively. These values were different from
the values obtained during this study probably because their weir was constructed
further downstream and affected the watershed size used in MIKE 11
computation. Secondly their weir was located at the flood zone which was
experiencing the abrupt change of water level.

Table 4 : NAM Parameters for Subcatchment of Layang River

NAM Parameter Description Parameter Value

Area of catchment 4.0
Maximum water content in surface storage 24.0
Maximum water content in root zone storage 80.0
Overland flow runoff coefficient 0.62
Time constant for interflow 1000
Root zone threshold value for overland flow 0.1
Root zone threshold value for interflow 0.1
Degree day coefficient 0.0
Time constant for routing inter and overland flow 20

GROUNDWATER:
Ratio of groundwater catchment area to
topographical catchment 1.0
Root zone threshold value for groundwater recharge 0.1
Specific yield of groundwater reservoir 0.1
Time constant for routing baseflow 1000
Minimum groundwater depth 0.0
Maximum groundwater depth causing baseflow 12.0
Seasonal variation of this depth (Y/N) N
Groundwater depth for unit capillary flux 0.0
Change groundwater abstraction data (Y/N) N

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Figure 3 : Daily Streamflow Calibration Curve

(October 1999 – September 2000)

Figure 4 : Daily Streamflow Simulaion Curve (1988 – 2000)

Figure 5 : Streamflow Validation Curve

(Jun 1998 – July 1998)
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Table 5 : Effects of Changing Differenct NAM Parameters On Runoff

Parameters Change Effects

Lmax Increase Peak runoff decreased
Runoff volume reduced

Umax Increase Peak runoff decreased

Runoff volume reduced

CQOF Increase Peak runoff decreased

Runoff volume increased

TOF Increase Peak runoff decreased

Runoff volume reduced

CK1 & CK2 Increase Peak runoff decreased

The triangular shape expand
horizontally

CKBF Increase Base flow decreased

Maximum groundwater Increase Peak runoff decreased

depth causing base flow Runoff volume reduced

The reliability of the MIKE11-NAM was evaluated based on the Efficiency

Index (EI) as described by Nash and Sutcliffe (1970). The EI was developed to
evaluate the percentage of accuracy or goodness of the simulated values with
respect to their observed values. An EI equal to 1 indicates the best (perfect)
performance of the model. The EI obtained during this study was 0.75. The
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) method used by Fleming (1975) was another
method applied to evaluate the reliability of MIKE 11 during this study. This
method can be regarded as a measure of absolute error between the computed
and observed flows. The RMSE values tend to be zero (O) for perfect agreement
between observed and simulated values. The RMSE value obtained during this
study was 0.08.

More automatic rainfall stations should be made available within the Layang
watershen to give a better representation of the mean areal rainfall and so as to
achieve better results. At the moment there is only one rainfall station being
established at the Layang watershed. The computation for the mean areal rainfall
carried out during this study was based on the Tiram and Plentong rainfall
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stations, the closest rainfall stations which are located outside the Layang
watershed. More rainfall stations will reflect more accurately the effects of
locality differences in the rainfall pattern. The Layang watershed normally
experienced an amount of the rainfall which differs with different locality within
the same period of time (Tarmizi et.al, 1997).

CONCLUSIONS

The rainfall runoff discharges estimation is hoped to contribute in hydrologic and

water quality analysis in the future. The rainfall discharges was successfully
modeled using MIKE11-NAM during this study. The simulated peak flow
discharges occurred in 1992 and 1995 with approximated values of 20.94 m3/s
and 18.93 m3/s respectively. A satisfactory and reliable results were obtained
with their Efficiency Index and Root Mean Square Error of 0.75 and 0.08
respectively. Better runoff discharges estimation should be obtained if more
automatic rainfall stations are made available within the Layang Watershed.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors appreciates all the helps obtained from everyone involved, especially
for the technicians of UTM-FKA Hydrology Laboratory, Encik Rahim hashim
and Encik Ismail Husin for working hard at the site. The authors are also
thankful to the Research Management Center (RMC) – Universiti Teknologi
Malaysia for the financial support under Vote 71327.

REFERENCES

Aitken, A.P. (1973). “Assessing Systematic Errors In Rainfall-runoff Models.”

Journal of Hydrology, 20, p 121-136.

Fleming, G. (1975). “Computer Simulation Techniques In Hydrology”.

Elsevier: New York. Pp 18-53, 239-252.

Green, W.H., and G.A. Ampt (1911), “Studies On Soil Physics. 1. The Flow of
Air and Water Through Soils.” Journal of Agriculture Science, Vol 4,
pp. 1-24.

Gupta, Ram. S. (1989). “Hydrology and Hydraulic Systems.” Englewood Cliffs,

New Jersey: Prentice Hall. 1st Edition. P 65, 228.

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Liden and Harlin (2000), “Analysis of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

Performance In Different Climates.” Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000)
pp 231-248.

Liong, Shie-Yui (2002), “Genetic Programming: A New Paradigm In Rainfall

Runoff Modeling.” Journal of The American Water Resources
Association, v38, n3m 2002, p 705-718.

Maidment D.R. (1993). “Handbook of Hydrology.” 1st Edition. NewYork.

McGraw Hill, Inc. p3.19.

McPherson, M.B. (1969), “Some notes on the Rational Method of Storm Drain
Design”, Tech. Memo. No.6. ASCE, Water Resources Research
Program, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.

Nash, J.E. and Sutcliffe, J.V. (1970). River Flow Forecasting Through
Conseptual Models, Part 1: A Discussion on Principals. Journal of
Hydrology, V10, p 282-290.

Tarmizi Ismail, Amir Hashim and Abdullah Al Mamun (1997). “Simulation of

Runoff for Ungauged Catchment in Peninsular Malaysia.” Proceeding of
Symposium at UNMER Malang, Indonesia.

Zamri Mohd (2000). “Rainfall-runoff Model Calibration and Daily Streamflow

Simulation For An Ungauged Catchment”. Universiti Teknologi
Malasyia. Master Thesis.

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