Ch 3 Slides_28 November
Ch 3 Slides_28 November
What decisions?
Production activities
How to organize them
Transactions
1. Decisions within the firm
1. Production activities: product portfolio (eg. Apple)
Transformation process (technology) determines product
characteristics and demand for inputs
Brands, commercial names to identify products
Elements of a decision:
1. Strategies (S)
2. Predictions of outcome (P)
3. States of Nature (EN)
4. Theories (f)
5. Decision Criteria
2. Decision theory
Elements of a decision:
1. Strategies (S)
The production activities involve undertaking actions
These actions represent the choice among different
alternatives or strategies
S = (S1... Sj, .., SJ)
2. Decision theory
Elements of a decision:
2. Predictions of outcome (P)
Elements of a decision:
3. States of Nature (EN)
The quality of the predictions depend on the
information we have on other factors (states of
nature) that are beyond our decision framework.
States of nature: EN = (EN1,... ENn,... ENN)
2. Decision theory
Elements of a decision:
4. Theories (f)
The quality of our predictions depends on our
knowledge and our ability to find the relevant
information.
Different theories will tell us how to relate different
variables and allow us to make predictions of
outcomes for each strategy and state of nature
SJ PJ, 1 PJ n PJ, N
2. Decision theory
Elements of a decision:
5. Criteria Decision
Given a certain knowledge and a certain state of nature, we
associate a particular outcome for each strategy j:
Pj, 1 ,..., P j, n ,..., P j, N
We also need a criterion for assessing the results and therefore
value the different strategies.
(Mathematics: Optimization)
Sj = argmax O j= O (P j,1 ,..., P j,n ,..., P j,N)
Learning:
Contrast hypothesis, statistics, econometrics.
2. Decision theory
Decision Theory (t) Learning (t+1)
Knowledge (t): Knowledge (t+1)
Theories concerning Choose/revise the possible new or revised
the consequences of explanations. theories
specific actions
(strategies).
Goals or criteria to
prioritize those results
and actions.
Actions or activities by
ourselves or by others.
2. Decision theory
Decision Tree
Decision
Strategy S1 Strategy S2
Source: https://hbr.org/1964/07/decision-trees-for-decision-making
Task 1: Hint
If the company builds a big plant, it must live with it whatever the size of market
demand. If it builds a small plant, management has the option of expanding the plant
in two years in the event that demand is high during the introductory period; while in
the event that demand is low during the introductory period, the company will
maintain operations in the small plant and make a tidy profit on the low volume.
Management is uncertain what to do. The company grew rapidly during the 1950’s; it
kept pace with the chemical industry generally. The new product, if the market turns
out to be large, offers the present management a chance to push the company into a
new period of profitable growth. The development department, particularly the
development project engineer, is pushing to build the large-scale plant to exploit the
first major product development the department has produced in some years.
Source: https://hbr.org/1964/07/decision-trees-for-decision-making
Task 2a: Solution
Task 2b
The chairman, a principal stockholder, is wary of the possibility of large unneeded
plant capacity. He favors a smaller plant commitment, but recognizes that later
expansion to meet high-volume demand would require more investment and be less
efficient to operate. The chairman also recognizes that unless the company moves
promptly to fill the demand which develops, competitors will be tempted to move in
with equivalent products.
You are trying to decide whether to approve a development budget for an improved
product. You are urged to do so on the grounds that the development, if successful,
will give you a competitive edge, but if you do not develop the product, your
competitor may—and may seriously damage your market share.
Task 2b: Solution
3. Decision theory: Sequential decisions
Decisions within the firm can be seen as sequential
1. Product portfolio and product design
2. Organization of production process:
1. What activities to be performed?
2. Where are they performed? location
3. Which production factors? Selection of suppliers
4. How to contract them?
Decision 1?
90 40 0 40 80 50 0 50
3. Decision theory: Sequential decisions
How to solve sequential decisions?
Backward induction (game theory)
Objective: maximize outcome
Assign a value to each strategy of the final decision
Then, work backwards solving each stage of the game
Decide optimal decision given each potential realization of states of
nature
In the example:
First stage: analyze second decision D=2 (one or two
markets)
Second stage: analyze first decision D=1 (location)
3. Decision theory: Sequential decisions
Decision 2: one or two markets?
Assume that we choose S11=Alcalá
If there is no crisis: we choose “One market” S21
R(S11, EN1 , S21) > R(S11, EN1 , S22) 90>40
If there is crisis: we choose “Two markets” S22
R(S11, EN2 , S21) < R(S11, EN2 , S22) 0<40
Assume that we choose S12=Hospitalet
If there is no crisis: we choose “One market” S21
R(S12, EN1 , S21) > R(S12, EN1 , S22) 80>50
If there is crisis: we choose “Two markets” S22
R(S12, EN2 , S21) < R(S12, EN2 , S22) 0<50
3. Decision theory: Sequential decisions
Decision 2 (continued):
With these decisions, we can simplify our decision tree from 8
possible outcomes to 4 (J1 x N):
R(S11, EN1)= 90
R(S12, EN1)= 80
R(S11, EN2)= 40
R(S12, EN2)= 50
3. Decision theory: Sequential decisions
Decision 1: the location?
We want to reduce the number of potential outcomes from 4 (J1 x
N) to 2 (J1).
We need an estimation of the probabilities of states of nature. For
example: Pr(no crisis)=0.4 , Pr(crisis)=0.6
Compute expected outcome of each strategy in decision 1
R(S11)= Pr1 x R(S11, EN1)+ Pr2 x R(S11, EN2)
R(S11)= 0.4 x 90 + 0.6 x 40 = 60
R(S12)= Pr1 x R(S12 , EN1)+ Pr2 x R(S12 , EN2)
R(S12)= 0.4 x 80 + 0.6 x 50 = 62
Thus, the strategy that maximizes the expected
outome is to locate the plant in Hospitalet.
3. Decision theory: Sequential decisions
Implementation of sequential decisions
First decision: the location will be Hospitalet
Then, depending on the state of nature (crisis or no-
crisis) we decide where to sell products (in one or two
markets).
There are two potential outcomes:
Pr(no crisis)=0.4 outcome = 80 (One market)
Pr(crisis)=0.6 outcome = 50 (Two markets)
3. Decision theory: sequential decisions
Complexity of the theories and delegation:
Individuals with more complex theories are able to solve
decision trees that involve more decisions
Delegation of actions to individuals with less complex
theories
Necessary conditions for delegation:
Coordination between decision makers: S1
Information flows: EN
3. Decision theory: sequential decisions
Sometimes, one of the 2 conditions is not necessary
Consider the following cases:
First, let´s start with a case study to get you in the mindset
of a leader who has a very difficult decision to make...
Case Study
Discussion:
Very risky decision- what factors do you think are considered? How do you
think this decision was viewed by others?
4. Decision theory and strategic management
Supporting Core Business Activities
CSR is strategic when: it supports core business activities
that contribute to a firm´s mission, vision, and
strategy.
Various routes- human relations as example
Subaru of Indiana Automotive: ¨nation´s first zero-landfill
car factory¨
Achieved through employee incentives
Salesforce.com: CSR as strategic initiative from the start
1% of of stock, products, & employees´work hours to company
foundation
4. Decision theory and strategic management
Creating a Strategic CSR Platform
Objectives:
Owner´s goals of a firm
Maximizing Value Theorem
Value Creation
Given several alternative strategies (S1... Sj, .., SJ) if all the
stakeholders:
i. agree on the value generated by each strategy
(TV1, …,TVj, .., TVJ)
ii. are free to participate or not in the transactions
iii. cash payments can be made between stakeholders
TV1=Pk, 1 + Pt, 1
TV2=Pk, 2 + Pt, 2
5. Firm goals
Maximizing Value Theorem Proof:
s = k entrepreneur
s = t worker
5. Firm goals
Starting assumption:
TV=85
Strategy 2
TV=50
5. Firm goals
SITUATION 2: There is divergence in the
preferences.
Pk, 1 > Pk, 2 Pt, 1 < Pt, 2
The individual who prefers the strategy that maximizes
the value (strategy 1), can make money transfers (t> 0),
and convince the other.
Pk, 1 - t> Pk, 2
Pt, 1 + t> Pt, 2
Pk, 1 + Pt, 1 =TV 1 > TV2=Pk, 2 + Pt, 2
TV=85
Strategy 2
TV=50
5. Firm goals
Conclusion:
Wage Renegotiation
Exercise 5 (covered in chapter1)
A firm is equity-financed for the sum of €160,000. The owner, to be
willing to invest, requires an annual return of 15%. The company
employs 5 workers with the same experience and training, who
receive an annual salary of €12,000 each. These workers would be
willing to devote the same time and similar effort for a minimum
salary of €10,000. Annually, the company produces 2000 physical
units of a product that is sold at a price of €110. Given the excellent
quality of the product, customers would be willing to pay up to €115
per unit. The materials needed to produce one unit of product cost
€65, although the current suppliers would be willing to sell it for a
minimum price of €60.
Workers w VL
Suppliers c VP
Funding R VK
Providers
VCL –VL - VP - VK =
Exercise 5 (covered in Chapter 1)
Workers w VL
Suppliers c VP
Funding R VK
Providers
VCL –VL - VP - VK =
Exercise 5: