Probability Formula Sheet:

P(A) Marginal Probability:

Number of Successful Outcomes
P ( A )=
Total Possible Outcomes

0 ≤ P( A)≤ 1

P ( A ' )=1−P( A)

P( A ∪ B) Union Probability: P ( A ∪ B )=P( A∨B)

Addition Rule:

P ( A∨B ) =P ( A )+ P ( B )−P ( A∧B )

P ( A ∩B )=0 Mutually Exclusive Events:

P ( A∨B ) =P ( A )+ P (B)

P( A ∩ B) Joint Probability: P ( A ∩B )=P( A∧B)

Multiplication Rule:

P ( A∧B ) =P ( A /B ) × P( B)

P ( A∧B ) =P ¿

Note: P¿

Independent Events:

P ( A∧B ) =P (A )× P (B)

P ( A / B )=P ( A )∧P ¿

P( A /B) Conditional Probability:

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 P( A∧B)
P ( A / B )=
P (B)

P( A∧B)
P ( B / A )=
P( A)

P(B/ A) Bayes Theorem:

P(B/ A )× P (A )
P ( A / B )=
P( B)

P¿

'
P( A ) The Complement / Negation:

P ( A ' )=1−P( A)

Things to Know: Compound Probability:

P(AB)  1st A, then B “Independent Events – With Replacement”

P(BA)  1st B, then A
P ( AB ) =P( A)× P(B)
P(A and B):
A and B occur
simultaneously. Dependent Events: “Without Replacement”

P ( A∧B ) =P (B∧ A) P ( AB ) ≠ P(BA)

Expected Value:

E ( X )=X 1 P 1+ X 2 P2

X1  Positive Value of Winning

X2  Negative Value of Losing
P1  Probability of Winning (decimal)
P2  Probability of Losing (decimal)

Binomial Distribution: Probability:

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P(x)  Probability of ‘x’
successes in ‘n’ trials.
P ( x )= ( nx) p q
x n− x

p  Probability of a successful n! x n− x
event. P ( x )= p q
( n−x ) ! x !
q  Probability that the event
u=np σ =√ npq q=1− p
will fail.

Geometric Distribution: Probability:

P(x)  Probability that the nth n−1

P ( X=n )=q ∗p
event will succeed.

n  number of 1st successful n

P ( X >n )=q P ( X ≥ n )=q
n−1
trial.
n n−1
P(4)  Probability that the 4th P ( X ≤ n )=1−q P ( X <n ) =1−q
event will be successful.
σ 2= ( )
1 1
p p
−1 σ = √
1−p
p

u=1/ p q=1−p

Geometric Probability:
Shaded Area
P=
Total Area

Poisson Distribution: Probability:

Mean: u=λ=np u e
n −u
λ e
n −λ
P ( X=n )= ∨P ( X=n )=
n! n!
Variance: σ 2=np

[ ]
n
un
Standard Deviation: σ =√ np=√ λ P ( X >n )=1−e
−u
∑ n!
x=0

[∑ ]
n
un
P ( X ≤ n )=e−u
x=0 n!

Uniform Distribution: (Area Probability:

= 1)

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 d −c
P (c ≤ x ≤ d )=
b−a

c−a
P ( a ≤ x ≤ c )=
b−a

b−c
P ( c ≤ x ≤ b )=
b−a
Area=f ( x ) ( b−a )
a+b b−a
1 u= σ=
f ( x )=
b−a
2 √12
Exponential Distribution: Probability:
(Area = 1)
− λn
A L =P ( X ≤ n ) =1−e

−λn
A R=P ( X ≥ n )=e

−λa −λb
P ( a ≤ x ≤ b )=e −e
n ∞
A L =∫ λ e A R=∫ λ e
− λx − λn −λx −λn
λ → Rate Parameter dx=1−e dx=e
0 n
u → Average timebetween occurences

1 2 1 P ( a ≤ x ≤ b )=P ( a < x< b )∧P ( X =a )=0

−λx
u= σ = 2 f ( x )= λ e
λ λ

Standard Normal Probability:

Distribution:
x−u
z= x=u+ zσ
σ

u=np σ =√ npq

( )
2
−1 x−u
1 2 σ
f ( x )= e
σ √2 π
b
Area=∫ f ( x ) dx ( )
2
−1 x−u
b 2 σ
e
a
P ( a ≤ x ≤ b )=∫ dx= Area
a σ √2 π

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