UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA

FACULTY OF HUMAN ECOLOGY

SEMESTER 4 2023/2024

FEM 3004-4 SOCIAL SCIENCE STATISTIC

PRACTICAL GROUP: 7

PRACTICAL 5 : DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

LECTURER’S NAME:DR. NUR AQILAH AMALINA JAAFAR

DEMONSTRATOR NAME: DR. SITI MARYAM

PREPARED BY:

NO. NAME MATRIC NO.

1. MIZATUL HANIS BINTI MOHD HUZIR 214198

2. NURAIN NADHIRAH BINTI MOHAMAD 214605

3. NUR DAYANA BALQIS BINTI MAZLI 216267

4. NUR NISRINA BINTI RUSLAN 216409

1. Suppose you take a multiple-choice test with five questions, where each question has four
choices, and you guess randomly on each question.

a) What is the type of probability distribution for this case?

> Binomial probability distribution

b) Find the probability distribution for the number of correct answers using the formula (Create a
table showing the correct answers (X) from 0 to 5).

n=5
p=¼ = 0.25
q=1-0.25=0.75
k=0,1,2,3,4,5

𝑛 𝑘 𝑛−𝑘
P = (x = k) = ( 𝑘 ) × 𝑝 × (1 − 𝑝 )

χ P(χ = 𝑘)

0 5
(0) × (
1
)
0
× (1 −
1
)
5−0
4 4

1 5
(1) × (
1 1
) × (1 −
1 5−1
)
4 4

2 5
(2)×(
1 2
) × (1 −
1
)
5−2
4 4

3 5
(3)× (4) × (1 −
1 3 1 3
)
2

4 5 1
(4)×(4 )× ( 1 −
1 5−4
)
4

5 5 1
(5)× (4 )× (1 −
1
)
5−5
4
c) Determine also the answers using the table.

p(x=0) = 0.2373

p(x=1) = 0.3955

p(x=2) = 0.2637

p(x=3) = 0.088

p(x=4) = 0.015

p(x=5) = 0.001

2. It has been a bad day for the market, with 80% of securities losing value. You are evaluating a
portfolio of 15 securities and assume a binomial distribution for the number of securities that lost
value.

q = 0.2
n = 15

a) What assumptions are being made when you use a binomial distribution in this way?

Assume the losing value as p, while success value q, since the question is focusing to know
the losing value.

b) How many securities in your portfolio will you expect to lose value?

Mean = np
= 15 (0.8)
=12

c) Find the probability that exactly 10 securities lose value.

 𝑛 𝑘 𝑛−𝑘
n = 15 P(x = k) = (𝑘) × 𝑝 × (1 − 𝑝)
15 10 15 −10
k = 10 P(x = 10) = (10) × 0. 8 × ( 1 − 0. 8 )
5! 10 5
p = 0.8 = 10! (15 −10)!
× 0. 8 × ( 1 − 0. 8)

10 5
= 3003 × 0. 8 × 0. 2
= 0.227 / 22.7%

3. The records of an Italian shoe manufacturer shows that 10% of shoes made are defective.
Assuming independence, find the probability of getting:
a) At most 2 defective shoes in a batch of 12.

𝑛 𝑘 𝑛−𝑘
n = 12 P(x = k) = (𝑘) × 𝑝 × (1 − 𝑝)
p = 0.10
k = 0, 1, 2 P(x ≤ 2) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2)
12 0 12 − 0
P(x = 0) = (0 ) × 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
12! 0 12 − 10
= 0! (12 − 0)!
× 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
0 12
= 1 × 0. 10 × 0. 9
= 0.2824

12 1 12 − 1
P(x = 1) = (1 ) × 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
12! 1 11
= 1! (12 − 1 )!
× 0. 10 × ( 0. 9)
1 11
= 12 × 0. 10 × (0. 9)
= 12 × 0. 1 × 0. 3138
= 0.37656

12 2 12 − 2
P(x = 2) = (2 ) × 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
12! 2 10
= 2! (12 − 2)!
× 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
2 10
= 66 × 0. 10 × 0. 9
= 0.2301
 P(x ≤ 2) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2)
= 0.2824 + 0.37656 + 0.2301
= 0.889

b) Fewer than 6 defective shoes in a batch of 20.

n = 20 P(x < 6) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) + P(x = 5)

p = 0.1
20 0 20 − 0
P(x = 0) = (0 ) × 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
= 1 × 1 × 0. 1216
= 0.1216

20 1 20 −1
P(x = 1) = (1 ) × 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
= 20 × 0. 10 × 0. 1351
= 0.2702

20 2 20 − 2
P(x = 2) = (2 ) × 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
= 190 × 0. 01 × 0. 1501
= 0.2852

20 3 20 − 3
P(x = 3) = (3 ) × 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
= 1140 × 0. 001 × 0. 1668
= 0.19015

20 4 20 − 4
P(x = 4) = (4 ) × 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
= 4845 × 0. 0001 × 0. 1853
= 0.08978

20 5 20 − 5
P(x = 5) = (5 ) × 0. 10 × ( 1 − 0. 10)
= 15504 × 0. 00001 × 0. 2059
= 0.0319

P(x < 6) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) + P(x = 5)

 = 0.1216 + 0.2702 + 0.2852 + 0.19015 +0.08978 + 0.0319
= 0.989

4. A watermelon farm produced 150 watermelons in a batch. Each batch consists 11 rotten
watermelons. A sample of 20 watermelons are selected for juice production. Find:

a) The probability that the sample contains 3 rotten watermelons.

N = 150
K = 11
n= 20
k=3

𝐾 𝑁−𝐾
𝐾 (3 )×( )
P(k = 3) = ( 3 ) × 𝑁
𝑛−3

(𝑛 )
150 − 11
11 ( 20 − 3 )
(3 )× 150
( 20 )
= 150
( 20 )

11 139
( 3 ) × ( 17 )
= 150
( 20 )

= 0.1244

b) The expectation (mean) of the number of rotten watermelons.

𝐾
E (k) = n × 𝑁
11
= 20 × 150
220
= 150

= 1.4667

c) The variance of the number of rotten watermelons.

 𝐾 𝑁−𝐾 𝑁−𝑛
Var (k) = n × 𝑁
× 𝑁
× 𝑁−1
11 139 130
= 20 × 150
× 150 × 149

= 1.1858

5. A die is rolled 4 times, success is rolling a number that is divisible by 2.

a) Construct the binomial distribution that describes this experiment.

𝑛 𝑘 𝑛−𝑘
n=4 p (x = k ) = ( 𝑘 ) × 𝑝 × (1 − 𝑝)
1 4 1 1 4−0
p= 2
p (x = 0) = ( 0 ) × ( 2
)× (1 − 2
)
1 4
k=0 =1× 1 × 2
= 0.0625

b) Find the mean of this distribution.

μ=n×p
1
=4× 2
=2

c) Find the standard deviation.

σ= 𝑛 × 𝑝 × 𝑞
1 1
= 4 × 2
× 2

=1
6. It is known that 65% of sixth formers think their maths teacher is strict. In a particular sample,
10 pupils are picked at random, and it is required to calculate the probability that less than 3 of
the 10 think that their teacher is strict.

a) Name a probability distribution that can be used for modelling this situation, stating one
necessary assumption for this model to be valid.
= Binomial Distribution
One necessary assumption for the binomial distribution to be valid in this context is that
each pupil's response (whether they think their maths teacher is strict or not) is
independent of the others. This means that one pupil's response does not influence
another pupil's response. Additionally, the probability of a pupil thinking their teacher is
strict remains constant at 65% for each pupil.

b) Use the model to calculate the required probability using the formula and table of probability
distribution for the specific type.
P(X<3) = P(X≤2)
P(X≤2) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)
10 0 10 10 1 9 10 2 8
= ⎡⎢ 𝐶0 (0. 65) (0. 35) ⎤⎥ + ⎡⎢ 𝐶1 (0. 65) (0. 35) ⎤⎥ + ⎡⎢ 𝐶2 (0. 65) (0. 35) ⎤⎥
⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦
= 0.00002759 + 0.005123 + 0.004281
=0.0048

c) Calculate the mean and variance of this distribution. ‘

µ = 𝑛𝑝
= 10(0.65)
= 6.5
2
δ = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
= 10(0.65)(0.35)
= 2.275
7. Cross-fertilizing a red and a white flower produces red flowers 25% of the time. We
cross-fertilize five (5) pairs of red and white flowers and produce five (5) offspring. Find the
probability that:
a) Identify the type of probability distribution.
= Binomial Distribution Probability

b) There will be no red flowering plants in the five offspring.

n=5
5 0 5
P(X=0) = 𝐶0(0. 25) (0. 75) = 0.2373

c) There will be less than two red flowering plants.

P(X> 2) = P(X≤1)
P(X≤1) = P(X=0) + P(X=1)
5 0 5 5 1 4
= ⎡⎢ 𝐶0(0. 25) (0. 75) ⎤⎥ + ⎡⎢ 𝐶1(0. 25) (0. 75) ⎤⎥
⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦
=0.2373 + 0.3955
= 0.6326

8. A batch of 20 ballpoint pens contains 8 broken lids. If we draw samples of size 6 without
replacement from the batch of ballpoint pens;
a) Find the probability that a sample contains 4 ballpoint pens with broken lids.

n=6
k=4
N = 20
𝑘 𝑁−𝐾
(4) × (𝑛 − 4 )
K=8 P(k =4) = 𝑁
(𝑛 )
8 12
(4) × (2 )
= 20
(6 )
8! 12!
×
= 4! (8 − 4)!
20!
2! (12 − 2)1

6! (20 − 6)!
 8! 12!
×
= 4!4!
201
2!10!

6!14!
70 × 66
= 38760
= 0.1192

b) Find the mean and variance of samples containing 4 ballpoint pens with broken lids.

𝐾 𝐾 𝑁 −𝐾 𝑁−𝑛
μ=n× 𝑁
σ=n× 𝑁
× 𝑁
× 𝑛−1
8 8 20 −8 20 − 6
=6× 20
=6× 20
× 20
× 20 − 1
8 12 14
= 2.4 =6× 20
× 20
× 19
= 1.0611

9. It has been observed that, on average, 240 cars per hour pass a specified point on Jalan Imbi in
the morning rush hour. Due to MRT construction, it is estimated that congestion will occur closer
to the city centre if more than 10 cars pass the point in any one minute. Identify the type of
probability distribution. What is the probability of road congestion occurring?

λ = 4 P(x > 10)

P(x > 10) = 1 - p(x ≤ 10)

10 −λ 𝑥
𝑒 λ
=1- ∑ 𝑥!
𝑥−0

−4 0 −4 1 −4 2 −4 3 −4 4
𝑒 ×4 𝑒 ×4 𝑒 ×4 𝑒 ×4 𝑒 ×4
=1-( 0!
+ 1!
+ 2!
+ 3!
+ 4!
+
−4 5 −4 6 −4 7 −4 8 −4 9 −4 10
𝑒 ×4 𝑒 ×4 𝑒 ×4 𝑒 ×4 𝑒 ×4 𝑒 ×4
5!
+ 6!
+ 7!
+ 8!
+ 9!
+ 10!

= 0.0028
10. A chocolate dish contains 50 Daims and 40 Cadburys. 25 candies are picked at random.
What is the probability that 10 of the 25 are Cadburys?

N = 90
𝐾 𝑁 −𝐾
( 𝑘 ) × ( 𝑛−𝑘 )
K = 40 P(x = k) = 𝑁
(𝑛)

n = 25
k = 10

40 90 − 40
( 10 ) × ( 25 − 10 )
P (x = 10) = 90
( 40 )

40 50
( 10 ) × ( 15 )
= 90
( 40 )

40! 50!
×
= 10! (40 −10)!
90!
15! (50 −15)1

40! (90−40)!

= 0.1643

11. DBKL is conducting a research whether the cycling lane should be closed due to increasing
accidents that occurred among cyclist. The road concerned has 3500 vehicles during morning
rush hour period. On average, the number of accidents occurred during the morning rush hour is
10. DBKL considers closing the cycling lane if the probability of having more than 10 incidents
in any one morning is more than 20%. Based on this information should DBKL close the cycling
lane or not?

k = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
e = 2.718

10 −10 𝑘
𝑒 × 10
P ( x ≤ 10 ) = ∑ = 𝑘!
𝑘=0
 −10 0 −10 1 2 −10 3 −10 4 −10 5
𝑒 × 10 𝑒 × 10 𝑒 −10 × 10 𝑒 × 10 𝑒 × 10 𝑒 × 10
= 0!
+ 1!
+ 2!
+ 3!
+ 4!
+ 5!
+
−10 6 −10 7 −10 8 −10 9 −10 10
𝑒 × 10 𝑒 × 10 𝑒 × 10 𝑒 × 10 𝑒 × 10
6!
+ 7!
+ 8!
+ 9!
+ 10!

−10
=𝑒 ( 1 + 10 + 50 +166.67 + 416.67 + 833.33 + 1388.89 + 1984.13 +
2480.16 + 2755.73 + 2755.73

= 0.583

P(x > 10 ) = 1 - P ( x ≤ 10 )
= 1 - 0.583
= 0.417 / 41.7%