SCHEME OF WORK FOR THE PERIOD 02/02/2025 TO 16/05/2025

BAC4311 FINANCIAL MODELLING AND FORECASTING

Topic Content Reference Activity Requirements Period Time
Assigned
• Unit 1: Introduction to Excel Tools for Modelling 02/02/2025 2 hrs.
1.0 First ODEL • Unit 2: Basics of Financial Modelling and the Business Excel Practical Class To /sessions
Residential School Environment Exercises 09/02/2025 And 4 hrs.
• Unit 3: Classification of Financial Models per Week
• Unit 4: Steps in Building Financial models

2.0 Unit One: There are many Excel formulas and functions required to build a financial model. Tutorial 1: Go to the E- 10/02/2025 2 hrs.
Introduction to The following are some of the commonest ones: Learning Portal to /sessions
Excel Tools for • Templates (www.zcas.ac.zm/elearning) 14/02/2025 And 4 hrs.
Modelling • Typing Less and Complete Tutorial 1: per Week
Introduction to MS Excel 365
• Formatting as Table
• Absolute Referencing
• Conditional Formatting
• Functions
• Lookup Functions
• Pivot Tables and Charts
• Some New Features in Excel 2019 to Excel 365

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3.0 Unit Two: Basics To explore the best practices that are required to develop a financial model in Tutorial 2: 17/02/2025
of Financial line with the business environment • Go to the E-Learning to
Modelling and the • Apply Ground rules to financial modelling in Excel Portal 21/02/2025
Business • Articulate the dos and don’ts of good financial models and the most (www.elearning.lmmu.ac
Environment efficient techniques to model construction and review necessary to .zm) and Complete
ensuring incorporation of best models Tutorial 2: Simple MS
• Effectively use keyboard shortcuts Excel Formulas
• Customizing Excel for efficient modelling
• Formatting models for improved communication
• Use some of the modelling functions (IF, MAX, MIN, etc.)
• Validate the model for correctness and consistency
4.0 Unit Three: To explore the different classes of models and how the link to the time horizon 24/02/2025 2 hrs.
Classification of and the business strategy Tutorial 3: Class Tutorial to /sessions
Financial Models • Distinguish between deterministic and probabilistic models. 28/02/2025 And 4 hrs.
• Link the Time Horizon of a Financial Model to Model Design Model 1: Mugone Bwino Bed per Week
• Design Models that support a Business Strategy horizon and Breakfast Lodge

5.0 Unit Four: Steps To explore the steps that are involved in the building of financial models. Tutorial 4: Class Tutorial 03/03/2025 2 hrs.
in Building • Outline and discuss the nine steps model development framework; to /sessions
Financial Models • Explain the rules of strategic thinking; Model 2: Payroll Business 07/03/2025 And 4 hrs.
• Be able to identify the forecast validation criterion; Case per Week
• Be able to determine the model and forecast horizons;
• Be able to validate the models and forecasts

6.0 Unit Five: The To explore the development of assumptions and how to use then in the Tutorial 5: Dashboard 10/03/2025 2 hrs.
Role of development of models. Modelling to /sessions
Assumptions in • Explore the assumption development process; 14/03/2025 And 4 hrs.
Financial • Explore key areas which require the development of assumptions; per Week
Forecasting • Outline eight strategic environments in developing assumptions;
• Incorporate drivers, dominos and ‘wild cards in the modelling process;
• Validate assumptions in a mode

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7.0 Unit Six: Decision To explore the different types of models used as Decision making tools. Tutorial 6: 7.10 Activities: 17/03/2025 2 hrs.
Support Applications • Capital Investment Decisions, Acquisitions, Divestitures and lease vs. Practical Exercise in the to /sessions
of Modelling Buy decision; Budgeting and financing the business; Module 21/03/2025 And 4 hrs.
• Cash management and financing the business; per Week
• Project management and Research & Development financing decisions; GROUP ASSESSMENT
• Break-even analysis product pricing, product continuance; Online Assessment:
• Pro forma Profit & Loss statements. Logbook Exercise 1
• Consolidations and Asset Redeployment Strategies Dashboard Modelling
Due Date: Sunday 22nd
March 2025
(10 marks)
8.0 Unit Seven: To explore the techniques available for effective managing historical data and the Tutorial 7: 6.10 Activities in 24/03/2025 2 hrs.
Effective Management way to analyse it using MS Excel the Module to /sessions
of Historical Data • Understanding the approaches used to build financial forecasting 28/03/2025 And 4 hrs.
Using Excel models; Recognizing the basic patterns inherent in historical data; using per Week
the exploratory data analysis tools available in Excel;
• Key factors in determining the proper time horizon to choose for your
model; Determining degrees of reliability in model projections;
• Selecting the degree of robustness and sensitivity of the model;
understanding and applying selected modelling techniques
9.0 Unit Eight: To explore the use of the MS Excel sensitive analysis tools on financial models. Tutorial 8: 8.7 Activities: 31/03/2025 2 hrs.
Sensitivity Analysis in • Appreciate the meaning and importance of sensitivity analysis; Practical Exercise in the to /sessions
Financial Models Using • Developing ‘what if’ scenarios in your financial or operational models; Module 04/04/2025 And 4 hrs.
Excel • Using the excel tools ‘scenario and goal seek’ per Week
• Unit Five: The Role of Assumptions in Financial Forecasting 05/04/2025 6 hrs. session
10.0 Second ODEL • Unit Six: Decision Support Applications of Modelling Excel Practical Class to
Residential School • Unit Seven: Effective Management of Historical Data Using Excel Exercises 13/04/2025
• Unit Eight: Sensitivity Analysis in Financial Models Using Excel
• Unit Nine: Principles of Forecasting and Time Series Analysis GROUP ASSESSMENT
• Unit Ten: Determination of Business Trends, Cycles and Long Book Exercise 2
Seasonality Decision Support, Data
Analysis and What if
Analysis Tools.
FT/PT: Study Break Due: Sunday 13th October
2025
(30 marks)
11.0 Unit Nine: To explore the use of MS Excel in determining trends in historical data using Tutorial 9: 10.7 Activities: 14/04/2025 2 hrs.
Principles of Time Series Techniques Practical Exercise in the to /sessions
Forecasting and Time • Combining Excel analytical tools with commercial knowledge we create Module 18/04/2025 And 4 hrs.
Series Analysis and apply forecast drivers to calculate the integrated forecasts. per Week

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 • Applying step by step forecasting / integration – a modular approach to
forecasting
• Identifying and forecasting the value drivers.
• Forecasting Sales growth, margins, capex / depreciation, effective tax
rates, working capital days
• Applying the concept of “fade”
• Applying Forecasting techniques – Use of Time Series Analysis
• Integrating the forecasts in the financial statements
12.0 Unit Ten: To explore the inter-relationship among trends, cycle and seasonality and MS Tutorial 10: 9.7 Activities: 21/04/2025 2 hrs.
Determination of Excel Data Analysis tool to calculate them. Practical Exercise in the to /sessions
Business Trends, • Understanding the inter-relationship among trends, cycle and Module 25/04/2025 And 4 hrs.
Cycles and Seasonality seasonality; per Week
• Using Excel to calculate, business trends, business cycles and the
seasonality factor;
• Using the seasonality factor in forecasting;
• Using the seasonality factor in interpreting the forecast variances
13.0 Unit Eleven: • Basic structure of all optimization models; Tutorial 11: 10.7 Activities: 28/04/2025
Optimization • Different forms and applications of optimization models; Practical Exercise in the to
techniques in models • Developing a financial optimization model; Module 02/05/2025
using excel • Performing sensitivity analysis of an optimization model;
• Interpreting the solution of an optimization model to a non-technical
manager
INDIVIDUAL ASSESSMENT
FINAL ONLINE ASSESSMENT
06/06/2025
Dashboard Modeling, Decision Support systems, Sensitivity analysis, Multiple Regression and Optimization
to
Due Date:
08/06/2025
Sunday 8th June 2025
(60 marks)

Activities and main assignments: The dates are as shown on this scheme

Study text: A module for this Course is available on the ELearning Portal. Additional materials can also be assessed from
the internet. Other additional materials will be provided on the Portal as need arises.

Lecturer: Dr Serah Beza Mbewe [email protected]

Note: No calls will be allowed on the lecturer’s private mobile phone unless specifically provided to you.

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