12 Introduction to Statistical Methods and Econometrics
12 Introduction to Statistical Methods and Econometrics
12 Introduction to Statistical
Methods and Econometrics
Learning Objectives
12.1
Etymology and Milestones of Father of statistics
Statistics in Global Level The fundamental
principles of statistics
The term statistics originated in the were developed by
West and was known by various names, the biologist, Ronald
such as ‘status’ in Latin, ‘statistik’ in fisher who lived in
German, ‘statisque’ in French. It is said England during the
that Gottfried Achenwall used the word last century. His
Ronald Fisher
‘statistik’ in 1749 to describe the political studies in statistics
science of different countries. All these led to the synthesis of evolution and
names in short mean to describe the modern genetics.
political state.
In statistics, data are classified into (i) Nominal data are the outcome
two broad categories: 1.Quantitative data of classification into two or more
and Qualitative data. categories of items or units comprising
a sample or a population according
1. Quantitative data are those that to some quality characteristic.
can be quantified in definite units Classification of students according
of measurement. These refer to to their sex (as males and females),
characteristics whose successive Workers according to their skill (as
measurements yield quantifiable skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled),
observations. Eg. Age, income, number and of employees according to their
of firms etc level of education (as matriculates,
undergraduates, and post-graduates).
2. Qualitative data refer to qualitative
(ii) Rank data, on the other hand, are the
characteristics of a subject or an object.
result of assigning ranks to specify
261 Introduction to Statistical Methods and Econometrics
X1+X2+X3+X4+⋯+Xn 1 n = 74.2
X̅ = = ∑ = X,
n n i 1 i 12.11
This formula is for ungrouped or raw data. Standard Deviation (σ)
Example 1: Calculate the mean for given The measures of central tendency
data 2,4,6,8,10. serve to locate the center of the distribution,
∑X but they do not reveal how the items are
Direct Method X̅ =
n spread out on either side of the center. This
Where ∑X = Sum of values characteristic of a frequency distribution
N = No. of items is commonly referred to as dispersion.
The degree of variation is evaluated by
Solution: various measures of dispersion. There
2+4+6+8+10 30 are two kinds of measures of dispersion,
X̅ = = =6 namely
5 5
Short- cut method:
1. Absolute measure of dispersion
The formula for finding mean, 2. Relative measure of dispersion
X̅ = A + ∑d
n Absolute measure of dispersion
Where A= the assumed mean or any value indicates the amount of variation in a set
of X of values in terms of units of observations.
d = deviations of each value from assumed
Relative measures of dispersion
mean.
are free from the units of measurements
Example 2: A student’s marks in 5 subjects
of the observations. They are pure
are 75,68,80,92,and 56. Find
numbers. They are used to compare the
his average mark.
variation in two or more sets, which are
Solution: having different units of measurements of
observations.
X d=X-A
75 7 Standard Deviation is one of
68 → A 0 the methods of Absolute measure of
80 12 dispersion. Karl Pearson introduced the
92 24 concept of standard deviation in 1893.
56 -12 Standard deviation is also called Root-
Total 31 Mean Square Deviation. The reason is
263 Introduction to Statistical Methods and Econometrics
Steps: 9 20 20-25=-5 25
1. Find out the actual mean of given data N=9 225 0 426
(X̅ ) 225
X̅ = =25
2. Find out the deviation of each value 9
from the mean (x ⁼ X –X̅ )
𝜎 = �∑(x-x̅ )2� =
426
= 47.33
3. S quare the deviations and take the total n 9
of squared deviations ∑x2 𝜎 = 6.88 Answer
4. Divided the total ∑x2 by the number of Example 2: Calculate the standard
observation � x2 �
∑ deviation for the following data by
n assumed mean method: 43, 48, 65, 57, 31,
5. The square root of � x2� is standard
∑ 60, 37, 48, 78, 59
n
deviation.
Introduction to Statistical Methods and Econometrics 264
Types of Correlation
Type I: B
ased on the direction of change of variables
Correlation is classified into two types as Positive correlation and Negative Correlation
based on the direction of change of the variables.
It cannot establish the exact degree of correlation between the variables, but provides
direction of correlation and depicts it is high or low.
Scatter Diagram
Perfect Positive Perfect Negative Low Degree of Positive Low Degree of
y Correlation y Correlation y Correlation y Negative Correlation
o xo x o x o x
o xo xo x o x
2. Graphic method
In this method, the individual values of two variables are plotted on the graph sheet
and draw the curves of both the variables say x and y. If both X and Y are moving in the
same direction either upward or downward, then the correlation is said to be positive. If
the curves of X and Y move in the opposite direction; then the correlation is said to be
negative.
45
35
%year-on-year
25
15
5
-5
-15
-25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Financial year Source: Central Statistical Organisation
3. K
arl Pearson’s Where dx refers to deviations of x
Coefficient of series from assumed mean A (X-A), dy
Correlation refers to deviations of y series from an
Karl Pearson’s assumed mean θ (Y-B)
Method is popularly ∑dxdy = Sum of product of the deviations
known as Pearson’s x and y series from their
coefficient of correlation denoted by the assumed means.
symbol ‘r’. The coefficient of correlation ‘r’ ∑dx 2 = Sum of the squares of the deviations
measures the degree of linear relationship
of x series from an assumed mean
between two variables say X and Y. The
∑dy 2= Sum of the squares of the deviations
Formula for computing Karl Pearson’s
Coefficient of correlation is: of y series from an assumed mean
N∑XY − (∑X) (∑Y) ∑dx = sum of the deviation of x series
1) r =
N∑X2 − (∑X)2 N∑Y2 − (∑Y)2 from an assumed mean of x
x-x̅ y-y̅
S.No x (x-x̅ )2 =x2 Y (y-y̅ )2=y2 xy
x - 7=x Y –5=y
1 3 -4 16 1 -4 16 16
2 6 -1 1 7 2 4 -2
3 8 +1 1 4 -1 1 -1
4 9 2 4 6 1 1 2
5 10 3 9 8 3 9 9
6 6 -1 1 4 -1 1 +1
42 42
x̅ =7 0 32 y̅ =7 0 32 25
6 6
∑x2 = 32 ∑y2 = 32 ∑xy = 25
Applying in Formula
∑xy 25 25
r= = = = 0.781
∑x2 ∑y2 32 ¥ 32 32
r = 0.781, The Car is getting old in years the cost of maintenance is also increasing. The
age of Car and its maintenance are positively correlated.
Assumed Mean Deviation Method
Ex 1: Find the Karl Pearson coefficient of Correlation between X and Y from the following
data:
X: 10 12 13 16 17 20 25
Y: 19 22 26 27 29 33 37
Solution:
Formula for Assumed Mean Deviation method.
∑X 113 1 12.13
x̅ = = =16
N 7 7 Regression
∑Y 193 4
y̅ = = =27
N 7 7 Evolution of Regression
Two Regression lines gives the best estimate to the value of one
variable for any specific value of the other
X on Y => X = a + by
variable.
Y on X => Y = a + bx
To fit Regression equations X on Y
Regression line is the line which gives and Y on X the following examples are
the best estimate of one variable from the given
value of any other given variable. The line
gives the average relationship between Ex 1: Fit two regression equation
the two variables in mathematical form. X on Y and Y on X for the following data.
The line of regression is the line which
X̅ =12, Y̅ =10, σy= 0.2, σx =0.1 and r = 0.85
Introduction to Statistical Methods and Econometrics 272
Mathematical Economic
Economics Statistics
Economics
Statistics
Mathematics
Econometrics Mathematical
Statistics
Objectives Of Econometrics
The general objective of Econometrics is to give empirical content to economic theory.
The specific objectives are as follows:
2. It helps to prove the old and established relationships among the variables or between
the variables
Economic theory
Data
Hypothesis Testing
Forecasting or prediction
Amalgamation of
above Three Subjects is Using the model for control or
policy purpose
Econometrics Difference between the Econometric
model with Mathematical models and
Methodology Of Econometrics statistical models
1. Models in Mathematical Economics
Broadly speaking, traditional or
are developed based on Economic
classical econometric methodology
Theories, while, Econometric Models
consists of the following steps.
are developed based on Economic
1) Statement of the theory or hypothesis Theories to test the validity of Economic
Theories in reality through the actual
2) Specification of the mathematical data.
model of the theory
2. Regression Analysis in Statistics does
3) Specification of the econometric model not concentrate more on error term
of the theory while Econometric Models concentrate
more on error terms
4) Obtaining the data
Statistics Regression:
5) Estimation of the parameters of the
Yi = β0 + β1Xi
econometric model
Econometrics Regression:
6) Hypothesis testing
Yi = β0 + β1Xi+ Ui
7) Forecasting or prediction
(with more than 2 variables) or
8) Using the model for control or policy
Y = β0 + β1X1 + β2X2 + β3X3+Ui
purposes.
3. The "U" has a normal distribution. The Ministry has two wings, Statistics
and Programme Implementation.
Programme
Statistics (NSO) Implementation
The Statistics Wing called the CSO is located in the Sardar Patel
National Statistical Office (NSO) consists Bhawan, Parliament Street, New Delhi.
of the Central Statistical Office (CSO), The Industrial Statistics Wing of CSO is
the Computer Centre and the National located in Kolkata. The Computer Centre
Sample Survey Office (NSSO). also under the CSO is located in R K
Puram, New Delhi.
Central Statistical Office (CSO)
National Sample Survey Organisation
The Central Statistical Office is one (NSSO)
of the two wings of the National Statistical
The National Sample Survey
Organisation (NSO). It is responsible for
Organisation, now known as National
co-ordination of statistical activities in the
Sample Survey Office, is an organization
country and for evolving and maintaining
under the Ministry of Statistic of the
statistical standards. Its activities include
Government of India.It is the largest
compilation of National Accounts;
organisation in India, conducting regular
conduct of Annual Survey of Industries
socio-economic surveys. It was established
and Economic Censuses, compilation of
in 1950. NSSO has four divisions:
Index of Industrial Production as well
as Consumer Price Indices. It also deals 1. Survey Design and Research Division
with various social statistics, training, (SDRD)
international cooperation, Industrial
Classification, etc. 2. Field Operations Division (FOD)
MODEL QUESTIONS
Part – A
Multiple choice questions
1.
The word ‘statistics’ is used as 4.
The data collected by questionnaires
__________. are_____________.
2. Who stated that statistics as a science of 5. A measure of the strength of the linear
estimates and probabilities. relationship that exists between two
variables is called:
(a) Horace Secrist.
(a) Slope
(b) R.A Fisher.
(b) Intercept
(c) Ya-Lun-Chou
(c) Correlation coefficient
(d) Boddington
(d) Regression equation
3. S ources of secondary data are
6.
If both variables X and Y increase
___________.
or decrease simultaneously, then the
(a) Published sources. coefficient of correlation will be:
(b) Unpublished sources.
(a) Positive
(c) neither published nor
(b) Negative
unpublished sources.
(c) Zero
(d) Both (A) and (B)
(d) One
Introduction to Statistical Methods and Econometrics 278
Answers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
c d d a c a c c d a
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
b b b a c b a c a a
Part-B
Part-C
Answer the following questions in one paragraph:
28. What are the functions of Statistics?
29. F
ind the Standard Deviation of the following data:
14, 22, 9, 15, 20, 17, 12, 11 (Answer: = 4.18)
30. State and explain the different kinds of Correlation.
31. Mention the uses of Regression Analysis.
32. Specify the objectives of econometrics.
Introduction to Statistical Methods and Econometrics 280
Part-D
Answer the following questions
ACTIVITY
1. Check, Count and make a data set of the number of pages of
your subject books of Economics, Commerce, History, Tamil
and English
Accelerator முடுக்கி
Balance of trade அயல்நாட்டு வாணிப நிலை
Balance of payments அயல்நாட்டு செலுத்து நிலை
Budget வரவு செலவு திட்டம்
Budgetary deficit நிதிநிலை பற்றாக்குறை
Commercial Banks வணிக வங்கிகள்
Central Bank மத்திய வங்கி
Credit creation கடன் உருவாக்கம்
Cash Reserve Ratio ர�ொக்க இருப்பு வீதம்
Capitalism முதலாளித்துவம்
Capital formation மூலதனத் உருவாக்கம்
Capital மூலதனம்
Consumption function நுகர்வுச் சார்பு
Comparative cost advantage ஒப்பீட்டு செலவு நன்மை
Customs union சுங்க வரி ஒன்றியம்
Common market ப�ொதுச் சந்தை
Capital accumulation மூலதனத் திரட்சி
Casino capitalism சூதாட்ட முதலாளித்துவம்
Crony capitalism சலுகைசார் முதலாளித்துவம்
Credit control கடன் கட்டுப்பாடு
Credit Rationing கடன் பங்கீடு
Correlation co-efficient உடன் த�ொடர்பு கெழு
Development மேம்பாடு
Disposable income செலவிடக் கூடிய வருமானம்
Deflation பணவாட்டம்
Disinflation மித பணவீக்கம்
Demonetization பண மதிப்பிழப்பு
Devaluation நாணய மதிப்பு குறைப்பு
Developing countries வளரும் நாடுகள்
Developed countries வளர்ந்த நாடுகள்
Demand deposit தேவை வைப்பு
Economics ப�ொருளியல்
Exchange rate மாற்று விதம்
Exchange control மாற்று வீத கட்டுபாடு
283
284
285
Reviewers
Dr. L.Venkatachalam Dr. George V. Kallarackal Dr. S. Iyyam Pillai
Professor, Madras Institute of Developmental Former HOD, Economics Department Former Professor, Dept. of Economics
Studies, Chennai. CMS College, Kottayam, Kerala. Bharathidasan University, Trichy.
Domain Experts
Dr. R. Bernadshaw Dr. S. Theenathayalan
Former Professor, Dept. of Economics, Head, Department of Economics,
NMSSVN College, Nagamalai, Madurai. The Madura College, Madurai.
Subject Coordinator
J. Sornalatha
Post Graduate Assistant, Government Muslim Hr. Sec School.
Chennai-600002.
Authors
Art & Design Team J.F. Paul Edwin Roy, B.T. Asst,
P.U.M.S -Rakkipatty, Veerapandi, Salem.
Co-ordination
Ramesh Munisamy This book has been printed on 80 G.S.M.
Elegant Maplitho paper.
Typist
Printed by offset at:
M. Madhavi
SCERT.
286