Technical Note Ch 12 Commodity Swaps 9e
Technical Note Ch 12 Commodity Swaps 9e
time t to t + 1 the net cost of carry factor is e( ) . When we price the Asian swap, we
r −δ
1
The assumption the interest rate is non-stochastic is necessary for pricing the Asian swap but not for the standard
swap.
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The appendix contains a numerical example.
2
In the case where k = 0, we are in the first settlement period and there is no previous settlement.
3
Time kj is not the product of k time j.
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The interpretation of this formula is that the value of the swap to pay G(0,T) and
receive the asset price at each settlement is the value of a position of X(kj,T) units of the
asset worth S(kj) and a liability of payments of G(0,T) at each remaining settlement date.
To value the swap then requires that we determine X(kj,T) and PVFA. This general
interpretation will apply to each case for any kind of commodity swap.
To find the number of units to purchase at time kj, we step back to time k, the
previous settlement. At time k the number of units to purchase would be
1− e −δR
.
eδ −1
At time kj, this would be found by compounding the above factor at the rate δ for the
period j to obtain
⎛ 1− e −δR ⎞ δj
X(kj,T) = ⎜ δ ⎟e .
⎝ e −1 ⎠
Each price observed in recording the average is denoted as S((t-1)1), S((t-1)2), etc.,
which will appear as S(01), S(02), or S(11), S(12), etc.
To reproduce a cash inflow at time t equivalent to the average price as defined
above, we must undertake at time 0 a set of transactions as follows:
δ/N)
To produce the value A(1) at time 1, we buy e-( (1/N)e-(r/N)(N-1) units. At time
δ/N) δ/N)
01, this will accrue to [e-( (1/N)e-(r/N)(N-1)]e( = (1/N)e-(r/N)(N-1) units. We sell the units
at price S(01) and invest the proceeds in riskless bonds maturing at time 1. A time 0 The
accrued value at time 1 will then be (1/N)e-(r/N)(N-1)S(01)e(r/N)(N-1) = (1/N)S(01). We also
δ/N)2
buy e-( (1/N)e-(r/N)(N-2) units. At time 02, this will accrue to
δ/N)2 δ/N)2
[e-( (1/N)e-(r/N)(N-2)]e( = (1/N)e-(r/N)(N-2) units. We sell these units at the price S(02)
and invest the proceeds in riskless bonds maturing at time 1. The accrued value at time 1
will be (1/N)e-(r/N)(N-2)S(02)e(r/N)(N-2) = (1/N)S(02). Additional transactions following this
pattern are also conducted at time 0 so that at time 1, the accrued value will be
(1/N)(S(01) + S(02) + ... + S(0N)). The total number of units to purchase at time 0 to
create this cash flow is
N
(1/ N)∑ e (
− δ / N)n −(r / N)(N−n )
e .
n =1
These transactions have reproduced only the first cash inflow, A(1). To
reproduce the second cash inflow, we do a set of similar transactions. In general we
purchase enough units of the asset so that when the price observation date is reached, we
sell off the appropriate number of units, invest the proceeds in riskless bonds so that at
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the next settlement the amount accrued will be (1/N) times the price recorded for
averaging. Doing this for all price observation dates reproduces the average at the next
settlement date. Doing this for all settlement dates reproduces the swap’s entire cash
inflows.
The total number of units to be purchased at time 0 is
T N
⎧ −(δ / N)[(t −1)N+n ] −(r / N)(N−n )⎫
X A (0,T) = (1/ N )∑ ∑ ⎨e e ⎬.
t =1 n =1
⎩ ⎭
δ δ δ)/N
This expression can be simplified. The term in braces can be written as e-(r- )e- ten(r- .
( )
N
Using the mathematical rule that ∑ Y j = Y 1− YN /(1− Y), the above expression can be
j=1
written as
⎛ 1− e −δT ⎞⎛ e −(r −δ) −1 ⎞
X A (0,T) = (1/ N )⎜ δ ⎟⎜⎜ −(r −δ)/ N ⎟⎟.
⎝ e −1 ⎠⎝ e −1 ⎠
To price the swap we set its value at time 0 to zero. This is done by setting the
value of the assets purchased to the value of the cash outflows:
⎛ 1− e −rT ⎞
X A (0,T)S(0) = G A (0,T)⎜ r ⎟.
⎝ e −1 ⎠
Solving for the swap price, we have
⎛ e r −1 ⎞
G A (0,T) = X A (0,T)S(T)⎜ −rT ⎟.
⎝ 1− e ⎠
Now we need to determine how many of these units would have been purchased
to produce at the next settlement the amount (1/N)(S(k1) + S(k2) + ... + S(ki)), which are
the previously recorded prices. In deriving the above formula in an earlier section, we
used a more general formula involving summations:
− r −δ)⎛ ⎞⎛ N n (r −δ)/ N ⎞
T
(1/ N)e ( ⎜∑ e
−δt
⎟⎜ ∑ e ⎟.
⎝ t =1 ⎠⎝ n =1 ⎠
4
One further adjustment will be needed, which we shall get to shortly.
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We need a special case of this formula, specifically that t goes from 1 to 1, since we are
looking only at the upcoming settlement, and that n goes from 1 to i. This gives us
− r −δ) −δ ⎛ i n r −δ / N ⎞
(1/ N)e ( e ⎜ ∑e ( ) ⎟
⎝ n =1 ⎠
i
= (1/ N )e −r ∑ e ( ) .
n r −δ / N
n =1
Using again the rule for summation of a finite series of the above form and after some
further algebraic rearrangements, we have
⎛ 1− e i(r −δ)/ N ⎞
(1/ N)e −r ⎜⎜ −(r −δ) / N
⎟.
⎟
⎝e −1 ⎠
This is still not quite what we need, which is the quantity required at time ki and not at
time k. We can obtained the desired value, however, by simply compounding the above
quantity by the factor e( ) . Thus,
δNi
Now we must deposit enough cash to produce (1/N)(S(k1) + S(k2) + ... + S(ki)) at
the upcoming settlement. This is easily obtained by depositing the amount
− r / N N−i ⎛ ⎞
i
BA (ki,T) = (1/ N )e ( )( )⎜ ∑ S(kn)⎟ .
⎝ n =1 ⎠
This amount will grow by the interest factor e(r/N)(N - i) and produce the desired total at the
upcoming settlement.
Thus, the purchase of XA(ki,T) units of the asset at price S(ki) and the purchase of
riskless pure discount bonds worth BA(ki,T) will produce the cash inflows over the
remaining life of the swap. The present value of the cash outflows is simply the present
value of the remaining payments of GA(0,T),
which will grow by the interest factor of e(r/N)(N - i - h). The investment required to produce
the cash inflows is S(kih)XA(kih,T) + BA(kih,T). The present value of the remaining
outflows is
r / N)(i+h )⎛ 1− e
⎞ −rR
G A (0,T)e( ⎜ r ⎟.
⎝ e −1 ⎠
The value of the swap is, therefore,
r / N)(i+h )⎛ 1− e
−rR ⎞
VA (kih;0,T) = S(kih)X A (kih,T)+ BA (kih,T)− G A (0,T)e( ⎜ r ⎟.
⎝ e −1 ⎠
Appendix
This appendix provides numerical examples for each of the cases developed in the
above sections. We shall work with a swap with four settlement dates. The asset yield is
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.03, the risk-free rate is .09, and the current asset price is 5.2630. For an Asian swap
there will be three price observation dates. Thus, T = 4, δ = .03, r = .09, S(0) = 5.2630,
and N = 3. Other inputs will be provided as needed.
Let us price the standard swap. We first compute X(0,4), the number of units we
must purchase to produce the cash inflows of the swap, as
1− e ( )
−0.3 4
X(0,4 )= 0.3 = 3.7131 .
e −1
Then the swap price is found as
⎛ e.09 −1 ⎞
G (0,4 ) = 3.7131(5.2630)⎜ ⎟ = 6.0874 .
⎝ 1− e ( ) ⎠
−.09 4
Thus, payments of 6.0874 at each of the four settlement dates is a fair exchange for
receiving the price of the asset on those settlement dates. Note that the swap price is
considerably higher than the current asset price. This is because the cost of carry, r - δ, is
relatively high at 0.09 - 0.03 = 0.06. Recall that in forward contracts the excess of the
forward price over the spot is directly related to the cost of carry. Since a swap is just a
combination of forward contracts, that relationship continues to hold.
Now let us move forward past the first settlement date and 1/3 of the way into the
second. The current price is now 5.2852. Let us find the new number of units that we
would have to purchase to produce the remaining cash inflows:5
⎛ 1− e −.03(3) ⎞
X(11/ 3,4 ) = ⎜⎜ .03 ⎟e ( ) = 2.8545 .
.03 1/ 3
⎟
⎝ e −1 ⎠
Then the value of the swap is
⎛ 1− e −0.09(3) ⎞
VA (11/ 3;0,T) = 2.8545(5.2852)− 6.0874⎜ 0.09
⎜ ⎟e ( ) = −0.6743.
0.09 1/ 3
⎟
⎝ e −1 ⎠
Now let us price the Asian version of this swap. With N = 3 prices in the average,
the number of units required at time 0 to replicate the cash inflows is
⎛ 1− e −0.03(4) ⎞⎛ e −(0.09−0.03) −1 ⎞
X A (0,4 ) = (1/ 3)⎜⎜ 0.03 ⎟⎜ ⎟
⎟⎜ −(0.09−0.03)/ 3 ⎟ = 3.6431 .
⎝ e −1 ⎠⎝ e −1 ⎠
5
The notation below in the expression X(11/3,4) is not 11/3 or 1 1/3 but simply indicates that k is 1 and j is 1/3.
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Solving for the swap price, we obtain
⎛ e 0.09 −1 ⎞
G A (0,T) = 3.6431(5.2630)⎜ ⎟ = 5.9677 .
⎝ 1− e ( ) ⎠
−0.09 4
Now let us value the Asian swap during its life. We first value it on a price
observation date, the first such date after the first settlement; thus, k = 1, i = 1. Using the
appropriate formula, we have
⎧⎛ 0.02 1 ⎫
1− e ( ) ⎞⎛ e −0.06 −1 ⎞ −0.09 ⎛ 1− e ( ) ⎞⎪
−0.03 3
0.01(1)⎪
X A (11,4 )= (1/ 3)e ⎜
⎨⎜ 0.03 ⎟⎜ −0.02 ⎟ − e ⎜ ⎟
⎜ e −0.02 −1 ⎟⎬⎪ = 2.4846 .
⎪⎩⎝ e −1 ⎟⎠⎝ e −1 ⎠ ⎝ ⎠⎭
We must invest enough cash in riskless bonds to reflect the prices already observed in the
average. There is only one previous price so we invest
−0.03(3−1)
(1/ 3)(5.2852)e =1.6591 .
in riskless bonds expiring in two periods. This amount will earn interest and grow to a
value of (1/3)(5.2852) = 1.7617 at the next settlement. The value of the swap is
⎛ 1− e −0.09(3) ⎞
V(11;0,4 )= (2.4846)(5.2852)+1.6591− 5.9677⎜⎜ ⎟e ( ) = −0.6603 .
0.03 1
⎟
⎝ e0 −1 ⎠
.09
Now suppose we are not on a price observation date. Let us be 4/10 of the way
between price observation dates 1 and 2, where the last settlement was at time 1. Thus, k
= 1, i = 1, and h = 0.4. The current price is S(11.4) = 5.3648.6 The number of units of
the asset we must buy is
0.01(.4 ) 0.01(.4 )
X A (11.4,4 ) = X A (11,4 )e = 2.4846e = 2.4946 ,
which makes use of the fact that we computed XA(11,4) in the previous problem. We
must invest enough money in riskless bonds to reflect the prices already observed in the
current settlement period. This will be
−0.03(3−1−0.4 )
(1/ 3)(5.2852)e =1.6792 .
6
Again, the notation S(11.4) does not refer to time 11.4 but rather time h = 0.4 after time i = 1 after time k = 1.
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⎛ 1− e −0.03(3) ⎞
VA (11.4;0,4 ) = 5.3648(2.4946)+1.6792 − 5.9677⎜⎜ 0.03 ⎟e ( ) = −2.5268 .
0.03 1.4
⎟
⎝ e −1 ⎠
References
Chance, D. M. and D. R. Rich. “Asset Swaps with Asian-Style Payoffs.” The Journal of
Derivatives 3 (Spring, 1996), 64-77.
Chance, D. M. and D. R. Rich. “Price the Average.” Energy and Power Risk
Management 1 (December, 1996/January, 1997), 22-25.
Das, S. “Forward March.” Risk 6 (February, 1993), 41-49.
Jarrow, R. and S. Turnbull. Derivative Securities. Cincinnati: South-Western (1996), pp.
444-447.
Schap, Keith. “Jet Fuel Swaps Ground Risk.” Futures 15 (February, 1993), 44-46.