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Mathematics: applications and interpretation
Higher level
Paper 3

Tuesday 11 May 2021 (morning)

1 hour

Instructions to candidates
y Do not open this examination paper until instructed to do so.
y A graphic display calculator is required for this paper.
y Answer all the questions in the answer booklet provided.
y Unless otherwise stated in the question, all numerical answers should be given exactly or
correct to three significant figures.
y A clean copy of the mathematics: applications and interpretation formula booklet is
required for this paper.
y The maximum mark for this examination paper is [55 marks].

2221 – 7213
7 pages © International Baccalaureate Organization 2021
 –2– 2221 – 7213

Answer both questions in the answer booklet provided. Please start each question on a new page.
Full marks are not necessarily awarded for a correct answer with no working. Answers must be
supported by working and/or explanations. Solutions found from a graphic display calculator should
be supported by suitable working. For example, if graphs are used to find a solution, you should sketch
these as part of your answer. Where an answer is incorrect, some marks may be given for a correct
method, provided this is shown by written working. You are therefore advised to show all working.

1. [Maximum mark: 24]

Juliet is a sociologist who wants to investigate if income affects happiness amongst

doctors. This question asks you to review Juliet’s methods and conclusions.

Juliet obtained a list of email addresses of doctors who work in her city. She contacted them
and asked them to fill in an anonymous questionnaire. Participants were asked to state their
annual income and to respond to a set of questions. The responses were used to determine
a happiness score out of 100. Of the 415 doctors on the list, 11 replied.

(a) (i) Describe one way in which Juliet could improve the reliability of her investigation. [1]

(ii) Describe one criticism that can be made about the validity of Juliet’s investigation. [1]

Juliet’s results are summarized in the following table.

Response Annual income ($) Happiness score

A      65 000 60
B      63 000 52
C      40 000 31
D     125 000 81
E     100 000 48
F     245 000 61
G      48 000 42
H      39 000 40
I      85 000 57
J      92 000 53
K 123 456 789 56

(b) Juliet classifies response K as an outlier and removes it from the data. Suggest one
possible justification for her decision to remove it. [1]

(This question continues on the following page)

 –3– 2221 – 7213

(Question 1 continued)

(c) For the remaining ten responses in the table, Juliet calculates the mean happiness
score to be 52.5.

(i) Calculate the mean annual income for these remaining responses. [2]

(ii) Determine the value of r , Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient,

for these remaining responses. [2]

Juliet decides to carry out a hypothesis test on the correlation coefficient to investigate
whether increased annual income is associated with greater happiness.

(d) (i) State why the hypothesis test should be one-tailed. [1]

(ii) State the null and alternative hypotheses for this test. [2]

The critical value for this test, at the 5 % significance level, is 0.549. Juliet assumes that
the population is bivariate normal.

(iii) Determine whether there is significant evidence of a positive correlation between

annual income and happiness. Justify your answer. [2]

(This question continues on page 5)

Turn over
 –4– 2221 – 7213

Blank page
 –5– 2221 – 7213

(Question 1 continued)

(e) Juliet wants to create a model to predict how changing annual income might affect
happiness scores. To do this, she assumes that annual income in dollars, X , is the
independent variable and the happiness score, Y , is the dependent variable.

She first considers a linear model of the form

Y
​ = aX + b​  .

(i) Use Juliet’s data to find the value of a and of b .[1]

(ii) Interpret, referring to income and happiness, what the value of a represents. [1]

Juliet then considers a quadratic model of the form

​ = c​X​​  2​  + dX + e​  .

Y

(iii) Find the value of c , of d and of e .[1]

(iv) Find the coefficient of determination for each of the two models she considers. [2]

(v) Hence compare the two models. [1]

Juliet decides to use the coefficient of determination to choose between these

two models.

(vi) Comment on the validity of her decision. [1]

After presenting the results of her investigation, a colleague questions whether Juliet’s
sample is representative of all doctors in the city.

A report states that the mean annual income of doctors in the city is $80 000. Juliet
decides to carry out a test to determine whether her sample could realistically be
taken from a population with a mean of $80 000.

(f) (i) State the name of the test which Juliet should use. [1]

(ii) State the null and alternative hypotheses for this test. [1]

(iii) Perform the test, using a 5 % significance level, and state your conclusion
in context. [3]

Turn over
 –6– 2221 – 7213

2. [Maximum mark: 31]

Alessia is an ecologist working for Mediterranean fishing authorities. She is interested in

whether the mackerel population density is likely to fall below 5000 mackerel per km3, as
this is the minimum value required for sustainable fishing. She believes that the primary
factor affecting the mackerel population is the interaction of mackerel with sharks, their
main predator.

The population densities of mackerel ( M thousands per km3) and sharks ( S per km3) in the
Mediterranean Sea are modelled by the coupled differential equations:

​​ 
dM
___
 ​= αM − βMS​
dt
dS
___
​​   ​ = γMS − δS​
dt
where t is measured in years, and α , β , γ and δ are parameters.

This model assumes that no other factors affect the mackerel or shark population densities.

The term αM models the population growth rate of the mackerel in the absence of sharks.
The term βMS models the death rate of the mackerel due to being eaten by sharks.

(a) Suggest similar interpretations for the following terms.

(i) γMS[1]

(ii) δS[1]

(b)
dM
_
An equilibrium point is a set of values of M and S , such that  ​​   ​  = 0 ​ and  ​​ 
dS
_
 ​  = 0​  .
dt dt
Given that both species are present at the equilibrium point,

(i) show that, at the equilibrium point, the value of the mackerel population density is  ​​ _
δ
γ ​​ ;[3]
(ii) find the value of the shark population density at the equilibrium point. [2]

(c) The equilibrium point found in part (b) gives the average values of M and S over time.

Use the model to predict how the following events would affect the average value of M .
Justify your answers.

(i) Toxic sewage is added to the Mediterranean Sea. Alessia claims this reduces
the shark population growth rate and hence the value of γ is halved. No other
parameter changes. [2]

(ii) Global warming increases the temperature of the Mediterranean Sea. Alessia
claims that this promotes the mackerel population growth rate and hence the
value of α is doubled. No other parameter changes. [2]

(This question continues on the following page)

 –7– 2221 – 7213

(Question 2 continued)

(d) To estimate the value of α , Alessia considers a situation where there are no sharks and
the initial mackerel population density is  ​​M0​​​  .

(i) Write down the differential equation for M that models this situation. [1]

(ii) Show that the expression for the mackerel population density after t years
is  ​M = ​M0​​e​αt​​  . [4]

(iii) Alessia estimates that the mackerel population density increases by a factor of
three every two years. Show that  ​α = 0.549​  to three significant figures. [3]

Based on additional observations, it is believed that

α = 0.549 ,

β = 0.236 ,

γ = 0.244 ,

δ = 1.39.

Alessia decides to use Euler’s method to estimate future mackerel and shark population
densities. The initial population densities are estimated to be  ​​M0​​= 5.7​  and ​S0​​= 2​.
She uses a step length of 0.1 years.

(e) (i) Write down expressions for  ​​Mn​ + 1​ ​ and  ​​Sn​ + 1​​  in terms of  ​​Mn​​​  and  ​​Sn​​​  . [3]

(ii) Use Euler’s method to find an estimate for the mackerel population density
after one year. [2]

(f) Alessia will use her model to estimate whether the mackerel population density is
likely to fall below the minimum value required for sustainable fishing, 5000 per km3,
during the first nine years.

(i) Use Euler’s method to sketch the trajectory of the phase portrait, for  ​4 ≤ M ≤ 7​ 
and  ​1.5 ≤ S ≤ 3​ , over the first nine years. [3]

(ii) Using your phase portrait, or otherwise, determine whether the mackerel population
density would be sufficient to support sustainable fishing during the first nine years. [2]

(iii) State two reasons why Alessia’s conclusion, found in part (f)(ii), might not be valid. [2]

References:

© International Baccalaureate Organization 2021