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Monsoon 2017

The Southwest Monsoon of 2017 in Rajasthan resulted in a seasonal rainfall of 454.9 mm, which is 109% of its long period average. Monthly rainfall peaked in July at 252.3 mm (161% of LPA), but significant deficits occurred in August and September. The rainfall distribution was uneven, with 4 districts experiencing largely excess rainfall and 14 districts receiving deficient rainfall.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
7 views18 pages

Monsoon 2017

The Southwest Monsoon of 2017 in Rajasthan resulted in a seasonal rainfall of 454.9 mm, which is 109% of its long period average. Monthly rainfall peaked in July at 252.3 mm (161% of LPA), but significant deficits occurred in August and September. The rainfall distribution was uneven, with 4 districts experiencing largely excess rainfall and 14 districts receiving deficient rainfall.

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Aharnish Arpit
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© © All Rights Reserved
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INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

(MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES)

SOUTHWEST MONSOON -2017


END OF SEASON REPORT
RAJASTHAN

HIGHLIGHTS

 The rainfall over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June –
September) was 95% of its long period average (LPA).
 Seasonal rainfall over Northwest India and Rajasthan were 90% and 109% of their
respective LPA.
 Seasonal rainfall was 92% of its LPA over East Rajasthan and 139% of its LPA over West
Rajasthan.
 Monthly rainfall over the state was 192% of LPA in June, 161% of LPA in July, 66% of
LPA in August and 48% of LPA in September.
 Out of 33 districts, 4 districts received largely excess rainfall; 6 districts received excess
rainfall; 9 districts received normal rainfall and 14 district received deficient rainfall during
the season.
 On a micro level, out of 245 tehsils, 32 tehsils received largely excess rainfall; 23 tehsils
received excess rainfall; 73 tehsils received normal rainfall; 104 tehsils received deficient
rainfall and 11 tehsils received largely deficient rainfall during the season.
 Southwest monsoon reached parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, south Andaman
Sea and Nicobar Islands on 14th May (6 days ahead of its normal date). It advanced
over Kerala on 30th May (2 days ahead of the normal schedule) and covered the
entire country by 19th July (4 days later than the normal date).
 Monsoon withdrawal commenced from West Rajasthan on 15th September with a delay of
nearly 3 weeks. It completely withdrew from Rajasthan on 11th October, 2017.

1
1. Onset and Advance of southwest Monsoon

With the formation of a cyclonic circulation over Andaman Sea, southwesterlies crossing
the equator strengthened and deepened leading to persistent cloudiness and rainfall over the
region. This resulted into advance of Southwest monsoon (SWM) into some parts of southeast
Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, entire south Andaman Sea and parts of north Andaman Sea on
14th May. The SWM advanced over Kerala on 30th May.

The formation of first intense low pressure system as a Deep Depression over
North Bay of Bengal and its northward movement during 11th – 12th June accelerated the
monsoon westerlies. This led to advancement of monsoon which almost covered most parts of
Peninsular India and entire northeast India by 14th June. During the third week of June, the
stronger than normal cross equatorial flow over the Bay of Bengal, increase in north-south
pressure gradient and establishment of Tibetan High in its normal position, led to the increased
rainfall over the core monsoon zone. This led to further advance of SWM over most parts of
central and western India by 27th June. It covered remaining parts of north Arabian Sea,
Saurashtra & Kutch, Gujarat region, some more parts of Madhya Pradesh and some parts of
south Rajasthan by 27thJune. A well-marked low pressure area formed over Indo- Gangetic
plains, SWM advanced into remaining parts of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir and
some more parts of east Rajasthan, Haryana and some parts of Punjab on 12th July. Further,
with the subsequent advance on 14th, 17th and 18th, it advanced into remaining parts of west
Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab on 19th and thus covering the entire country on 19th July
2017.Isochrones of advance of monsoon 2017 is shown in Fig. 1.

Fig.1: Progress of Southwest Monsoon – 2017


2
2. Chief Synoptic Features
The rainfall activity over Indian main land during this season was mainly decided by
the intra-seasonal activity of the synoptic systems over Indian monsoon region. In the intra-
seasonal scale, the rainfall activity over monsoon trough zone including central India and
neighboring northwest India has a positive (negative) relationship with the number of low
pressure systems (LPS) (lows, depressions, cyclones etc.) and LPS days over the Indian
monsoon region (northwest Pacific).

During the season, 14 low pressure systems formed over the Indian subcontinent. Their
month-wise frequency are given in the table below.
Systems / Month Deep Depression Depression Well marked low Low pressure
pressure area area
June 1 0 2 2
July 0 2 1 3
August 0 0 2 0
Sept. 0 0 1 0
Table : Frequency of low pressure systems over Indian region during monsoon season, 2017

During the season, 4-6 depressions form over the Indian monsoon region. This year, 11
low pressure areas formed in the first half of the season with 3 of them intensifying into
depressions. On the other hand, during the second half of the season, only 3 low pressure
systems formed in the Indian monsoon region with none of them intensified into depression.
The number of LPS days, had been 11 in June, 12 in July, 10 in August and 6 in September
against a normal of 11, 14, 17 & 16 during the respective months. The total number of LPS
days during the season had been only 39 as against the normal of 58.

The activity of low pressure systems (with intensity of depression and above) over the
northwest Pacific was normal during the first half and above normal during the second half of
the season. This resulted in above normal convective activity over the northwest Pacific and
below normal convective activity across the entire Intertropical convergence zone including the
monsoon trough zone over India during the second half of the season. The below normal
rainfall over the central and northwest India during the second half of the season was also
caused by the above normal convective activity over southern hemispheric equatorial trough
(SHET) during the period.Tracks of Depressions & Deep Depressions are given in Fig.2.

Fig.2: Track of the monsoon Depressions and Cyclonic Storms


3
3. High Impact Weather Events
Fig. 3 depicts the met. Sub-divisions or parts thereof, which experienced high impact
weather events like, floods, landslides, lightning associated with thunderstorm sand Heat waves
during the southwest monsoon season (June- September). It also indicates areas that
experienced isolated extremely heavy rainfall (Rainfall amount ≥ 21 cm reported during the 24
hours ending at 0830 hrs IST) events during the season. Apart from the flood situations
experienced in association with the advance phase of SWM over northeast India and southern
most peninsular India, there had been flood situations over various other parts including
Odisha, Bihar, Gujarat, Konkan (Mumbai city also experienced extremely heavy rainfall twice
during the season viz., 29th August & 19th September), Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, East
Rajasthan (Mount Abu received exceptionally heavy rainfall of 77 cm on 24th July), parts of
Haryana etc. High temporal and spatial variability of rainfall caused such floods and flash
floods and at the same time, intense convection during the weak phases of monsoon led to
events of severe thunderstorms and lightning over major parts of the country.

Fig.3: Areas of high impact weather events during the 2017 southwest Monsoon.

Table: List of stations which reported extremely heavy rainfall (> 21 cm in 24 hours)
during monsoon season.
Date Station District Rainfall in cm
14/07/2017 Ghatol Banswara 24
14/07/2017 Pipalkhunt Pratapgarh 24
24/07/2017 Jawai Dam Pali 23
24/07/2017 Sumerpur Pali 23
24/07/2017 Bhinmal Jalore 26
24/07/2017 Raniwada Jalore 39
24/07/2017 Mt. Abu Sirohi 77
24/07/2017 Pindwara Sirohi 30
24/07/2017 Sirohi Sirohi 38
24/07/2017 Abu Road Sirohi 27
24/07/2017 Reodar Sirohi 40
4
25/07/2017 Sanchore Jalore 39
25/07/2017 Gudamalani Barmer 23
25/07/2017 Mt. Abu Sirohi 73
25/07/2017 Sirohi Sirohi 30
25/07/2017 Abu Road Sirohi 27
25/07/2017 Reodar Sirohi 45
26/07/2017 Mt. Abu Sirohi 32
29/07/2017 Pratapgarh Pratapgarh 24
20/08/2017 Pipalkhunt Pratapgarh 22

Table: Broken rainfall records in Rajasthan during monsoon season 2017


S.No. District Station Previous Record New Record
1 Sirohi Mt. Abu 700.0mm/08 Sep 1992 773.0mm/24 July
2 Sirohi Reodar 2017 July
317.0mm/08 Sep 1992 451.0mm/25
3 Sirohi Sirohi 2017 July
362.7mm/14 Aug 1941 380.0mm/24
2017

4. Withdrawal of southwest Monsoon


Dry weather prevailed over western parts of Rajasthan since 18th September. However, the
changeover of atmospheric circulation was delayed. Establishment of an anti-cyclone in the
lower tropospheric levels, substantial reduction in moisture content and prevalence of dry
weather indicated the withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some parts of Punjab, Haryana,
most parts of west Rajasthan, some parts of Kutch and north Arabian Sea on 27th September. It
further withdrew from remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, west
Rajasthan, Kutch, entire Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, some parts of Uttarakhand,
west Uttar Pradesh, most parts of east Rajasthan, some parts of west Madhya Pradesh, north
Gujarat region, Saurashtra and some more parts of north Arabian Sea on 30th September. It
further withdrew from remaining pats of Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan,
some parts of East Uttar Padesh and some more parts of north Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat on
11th October. Isochrones of withdrawal of monsoon 2017 are shown in Fig. 4.

Fig.4: Isochrones of withdrawal of southwest monsoon – 2017


5
5. Rainfall Distribution
The rainfall during monsoon season (June to September) for the State as a whole and its
two meteorological sub divisions is given in the table below with respective LPA values.

Table: Rainfall during southwest monsoon 2017 over Rajasthan and its subdivisions
Season (June to September) rainfall
Long period Departure
Actual
Region / Area average LPA from
(in mm)
(in mm) normal %
Rajasthan 454.9 419 +9

East Rajasthan 566.9 615.8 -8

West Rajasthan 365.9 263.2 +39

The seasonal rainfall over Rajasthan was 109% of its LPA, East Rajasthan 92% of its LPA
and West Rajasthan 139% of its LPA. The rainfall distribution was not uniform over the State.
Out of 33 districts, 4 districts received largely excess rainfall, 6 districts received excess
rainfall, 9 districts received normal rainfall and 14 districts received deficient rainfall during
the season. The district wise seasonal distribution of rainfall is shown in Figure 5. It can be
seen that most of the districts in West and Southwestern Rajasthan received excess rainfall,
North and Central Rajasthan received normal rainfall whereas Ganganagar and most districts in
East Rajasthan received deficient rainfall. A more micro distribution shows (Figure 6) that out
of 245 tehsils in the State, 32(13%) tehsils witnessed largely excess; 23(10%) witnessed
excess; 73(30%) witnessed normal; 104(42%) witnessed deficient and 11(5%) witnessed
largely deficient rainfall.

Fig.5: Districtwise rainfall distribution over Rajasthan during southwest monsoon season (June
to September) – 2017.
6
Fig.6: Tehsilwise rainfall distribution over Rajasthan during southwest monsoon season (June
to September) – 2017.

The monthly rainfall during monsoon season (June to September) for the State as a
whole and its two meteorological sub divisions is given in the table below with respective LPA
values.

Table: Rainfall during southwest monsoon 2017 over Rajasthan


Long period Departure
Actual
Month average LPA from
(in mm)
(in mm) normal %
June 85 44.1 +92
July 252.3 156.8 +61
August 84.8 150.8 -44
September 32.3 66.9 -52

7
Table: Rainfall during southwest monsoon 2017 over East Rajasthan
Long period Departure
Actual
Month average LPA from
(in mm)
(in mm) normal %
June 89.1 62.2 +43
July 293.3 225.2 +30
August 137.2 228.4 -40
September 46.4 99.7 -53

Table: Rainfall during southwest monsoon 2017 over West Rajasthan


Long period Departure
Actual
Month average LPA from
(in mm)
(in mm) normal %
June 81.6 29.8 +174
July 219.7 102.7 +114
August 43.1 89.3 -52
September 21.2 41.1 -49

From the above tables it is observed that Rajasthan received highest rainfall during the
month of July, which was 161% of LPA (i.e. excess category). Both East Rajasthan and West
Rajasthan received their highest 130% of LPA (excess) and 214% of LPA (excess) respectively
during month of July. The rainfall trend was not uniform during the season. During first two
months of the season Rajasthan’s rainfall was in excess category but in the month of August &
September very less rainfall occurred, due to which Rajasthan fell in Deficient category. West
Rajasthan received 274% of LPA rainfall and East Rajasthan received 143% of LPA rainfall in
the month of June. Trends followed during July, West Rajasthan received 214% of LPA
rainfall and East Rajasthan received 130% of LPA rainfall. Several stations received extremely
heavy rainfall during this period, creating flood like situation in many areas. Both East and
West Rajasthan received deficient rainfall during August & September.

The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the State as a whole was 109% of its LPA and it
was 92% and 139% of LPA over East and West Rajasthan respectively. Out of 33 districts, the
seasonal rainfall was largely excess in 4 districts, excess in 6 districts, normal in 9 districts and
deficient in 14 districts. Karauli district received least rainfall (50% of LPA) and Jalore district
received highest rainfall (226% of LPA). The seasonal rainfall for various districts of Rajasthan
is given in table below.

8
Table: District-wise seasonal rainfall distribution monsoon 2017

Monsoon rainfall in mm (June - September 2017)


Sr. State/Districts
No. Actual (in mm) Normal (in mm) %Dep

RAJASTHAN 454.9 419 9

EAST RAJASTHAN
1 AJMER 486.7 429.6 13
2 ALWAR 300.3 555.3 -46
3 BANSWARA 892.1 831.8 7
4 BARAN 531.8 792.2 -33
5 BHARATPUR 321.6 557.6 -42
6 BHILWARA 559.1 580.9 -4
7 BUNDI 451.8 655.9 -31
8 CHITTORGARH 688.2 709.7 -3
9 DAUSA 323.4 612.1 -47
10 DHOLPUR 344.5 650 -47
11 DUNGARPUR 825.1 637.8 29
12 JAIPUR 342.9 524.6 -35
13 JHALAWAR 799 855.1 -7
14 JHUNJHUNU 253.1 410 -38
15 KARAULI 319.5 637.4 -50
16 KOTA 465.5 746.3 -38
17 PRATAPGARH 1090.8 845.8 29
18 RAJSAMAND 728.1 506 44
19 SAWAI MADHOPUR 394.2 664 -41
20 SIKAR 296.1 402.5 -26
21 SIROHI 1815.5 868.6 109
22 TONK 418 566 -26
23 UDAIPUR 810.6 591.3 37
EAST RAJASTHAN 566.9 615.8 -8

WEST RAJASTHAN
24 BARMER 465.9 243.4 91
25 BIKANER 212.5 228.7 -7
26 CHURU 280 313.7 -11
27 HANUMANGARH 210.6 252.5 -17
28 JAISALMER 226.1 158.4 43
29 JALORE 892.8 394.2 126
30 JODHPUR 400.5 274.5 46
31 NAGAUR 366.6 348.5 5
32 PALI 785.5 446.7 76
33 SRI GANGANAGAR 147.5 201.4 -27
WEST RAJASTHAN 365.9 263.2 39

9
Weekly rainfall distribution over the two Meteorological sub divisions of the state is shown
in the following charts (Figure 7 to 10).

Weekly Rainfall Distribution Monsoon 2017


East Rajasthan

160 141.7
140
120
Rainfall (in mm)

100
80 63.4 65.8
60 49.1 51.8
41.4 37.3
40
20.2 15.8 17 17.3
8.2 9.6 13.4
20 6.4 3.3 3.7 0.1
0

13-Sep-17

20-Sep-17

27-Sep-17
19-Jul-17
14-Jun-17

21-Jun-17

28-Jun-17

12-Jul-17

26-Jul-17
7-Jun-17

5-Jul-17

6-Sep-17

4-Oct-17
16-Aug-17

23-Aug-17

30-Aug-17
2-Aug-17

9-Aug-17
Week ending Actual mm

Fig.7 Weekly rainfall distribution over East Rajasthan Monsoon 2017

% Departure Of Seasonal Total Rainfall From Normal


(East Rajasthan) Year - 2017

80 74
70
60
50
40 32
% Departure

29 29 29
30 24 20
20
6
10 1
0
-10 -4 -1 -5 -7 -6 -7
-20 -12 -10
13-Sep-17

20-Sep-17

27-Sep-17
14-Jun-17

21-Jun-17

28-Jun-17

12-Jul-17

19-Jul-17

26-Jul-17
7-Jun-17

5-Jul-17

6-Sep-17
16-Aug-17

23-Aug-17

30-Aug-17
2-Aug-17

9-Aug-17

Week ending % DEP

Fig. 8 Percentage departures of cumulative seasonal rainfall over East Rajasthan

The highest rainfall (141.7 mm) was received during the week ending 26th July 2017
over East Rajasthan.

10
Weekly Rainfall Distribution Monsoon 2017
West Rajasthan

100 89.9
90
80
66.9
70
Rainfall in mm

60
50 44.7
39.6 37.5
40
30 19.2 15.7
20 12.3 12.2
10 2.2 0.4 2.9 4.9 6.8 5.8 4.2
0 0
0

13-Sep-17

20-Sep-17

27-Sep-17
12-Jul-17

19-Jul-17

26-Jul-17
14-Jun-17

21-Jun-17

28-Jun-17
7-Jun-17

5-Jul-17

6-Sep-17

4-Oct-17
16-Aug-17

23-Aug-17

30-Aug-17
2-Aug-17

9-Aug-17
Week ending Actual mm

Fig.9 Weekly rainfall distribution over West Rajasthan Monsoon 2017

% Departure Of Seasonal Total Rainfall From Normal


(West Rajasthan) Year - 2017
200

150
150

141

122
% Departure

100
103

94
74
72

72

50
65

59

58

54

50

44

43

39

0
-34

-50
5-Jul

6-Sep
7-Jun

21-Jun
14-Jun

28-Jun

13-Sep

20-Sep

27-Sep
12-Jul

19-Jul

26-Jul

2-Aug

9-Aug

16-Aug

23-Aug

30-Aug

Week ending % Dep

Fig. 10 Percentage departures of cumulative seasonal rainfall over West Rajasthan

Highest rainfall (89.9 mm) was received during the week ending 26th July in West
Rajasthan.

The district wise weekly rainfall distribution over the state of Rajasthan during
South West monsoon season 2017 is shown in the following table.

11
Table: Districtwise weekly rainfall distribution monsoon 2017

12
Fig.11 Districtwise Monthly Rainfall Fig. 12 Districtwise Monthly Rainfall
Distribution Over Rajasthan – June Distribution Over Rajasthan - July

Fig. 13 Districtwise Monthly Rainfall Fig. 14 Districtwise Monthly Rainfall


Distribution Over Rajasthan - August Distribution Over Rajasthan - September

13
During June 2017 out of 33 districts, 20 districts received largely excess , 6 districts
excess, 6 districts normal and 1 district deficient rainfall. During July 12 districts received
largely excess, 2 districts excess, 3 districts normal and 16 districts deficient rainfall. During
August 3 districts received normal, 22 districts deficient and 8 districts largely deficient
rainfall. During September 1 district received excess, 2 districts normal, 14 districts deficient
and 16 districts largely deficient rainfall.

During the 2017 monsoon season West and East Rajasthan subdivisions received
excess and normal rainfall as shown in Figure 15.

Fig.15 Subdivision Wise Seasonal Rainfall Distribution Over India (June-September 2017)
14
Fig.16 Districtwise Daily Spatial Rainfall Distribution

Fairly wide spread to wide spread rainfall occurred on 6 days (minimum) to 51 days
(maximum) over different districts in Rajasthan during the whole monsoon season. Pratapgarh
district got wide spread rainfall on 39 days (highest) during the whole season.

MONSOON-2017
HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
RAJASTHAN
14
12 0 1
1 0 3 0 0 0
10 0 2 2
NUMBER OF DAYS

1 0 0 2 2 0 3
8 2 0 1 0 2 1 2
1
0 1 2 1
6 12
4 3 0
4 8 9 0 8 0 8 1 0 7 9 8 0
0 7 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 0 7 0 0 7
2
3 3 3 3 0 0
1 4 4
0
4 4 3 2 3 3 3 0
2
4 3
0
0 1 1 0 1 1 1
SRI GANGANAGAR
JHALAWAR
DUNGARPUR

JHUNJHUNU

UDAIPUR
JAIPUR

SIROHI

JODHPUR
BUNDI

DHOLPUR

JALORE
DAUSA

KOTA
TONK

NAGAUR
BANSWARA

KARAULI

SIKAR

BARMER

CHURU
ALWAR

BHARATPUR
AJMER

RAJSAMAND
SAWAI MADHOPUR

PALI
HANUMANGARH
JAISALMER
BARAN

BHILWARA

CHITTORGARH

PRATAPGARH

BIKANER

DISTRICTS
ISOL FEW MANY MOST

Fig.17 District wise Daily Heavy Rainfall Distribution

Heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred at isolated to most places in all districts
of the state on a few days. The districts namely Chittorgarh, Pratapgarh and Sirohi received
heavy rainfall at most places on 1 day each during the whole season. Banswara, Jhalawar,
Pratapgarh, Sirohi, Jalore and Pali districts experienced heavy rainfall at many places on 1 to 3
days during the season.

15
MONSOON 2017 TEHSILWISE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION

L.DEFICIENT
11
4% NORMAL
73
30% TOTAL
TEHSILS 245
DEFICIENT
104
42&

L.EXCESS
32
EXCESS 13%
25
10%

Fig.18 Tehsilwise Seasonal Rainfall Distribution

32 tehsils received largely excess, 25 tehsils received excess and 73 tehsils received
normal rainfall during the season. The rainfall was deficient in 104 tehsils and it was largely
deficient in 11 tehsils. The worst affected districts during this season were Sri Ganganagar in
West Rajasthan and Karauli in East Rajasthan. Out of 9 tehsils in Sri Ganganagar district, 2
tehsils got largely deficient and 5 got deficient rainfall. Out of 6 tehsils in Karauli district, 1
tehsils got largely deficient and 5 got deficient rainfall. The daily rainfall timeseries is shown in
figure 19 to 21 for East Rajasthan, West Rajathan and Rajathan respectively. The intensity of
distribution of rainfall (in terms of number of stations reported rainfall) for East and West
Rajasthan is shown in figure 22 and 23.

EAST RAJASTHAN
DAILY RAINFALL IN MM
80.0
70.0
60.0
MM

50.0
RAINFALL IN

40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1 4 7 10131619222528 1 4 7 1013161922252831 3 6 9 12151821242730 2 5 8 11141720232629

DATE
ACTUAL RAINFALL NORMAL RAINFALL

Fig.19 Daily Average Rainfall over East Rajasthan


16
WEST RAJASTHAN
DAILY RAINFALL IN MM
40.0
MML 35.0
30.0
25.0
IN

20.0
15.0
RAINFALL

10.0
5.0
0.0
1 4 7 10131619222528 1 4 7 1013161922252831 3 6 9 12151821242730 2 5 8 11141720232629
DATE
ACTUAL RAINFALL NORMAL RAINFALL

Fig.20 Daily Average Rainfall over West Rajasthan

RAJASTHAN
DAILY RAINFALL IN MM
40.0
35.0
RAINFALL IN MM

30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1 4 7 10131619222528 1 4 7 1013161922252831 3 6 9 12151821242730 2 5 8 11141720232629
DATE
JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
ACTUAL RAINFALL NORMAL RAINFALL

Fig.21 Daily Average Rainfall over Rajasthan

EAST RAJASTHAN
DAILY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
250

200
NO. OF STATIONS

150

100

50

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29
DATE

LIGHT RAINALL MODERATE RAINFALL RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL


HEAVY RAINFALL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL

Fig.22 Daily Rainfall Intensity Distribution Over East Rajasthan (Monsoon Season 2017)

17
WEST RAJASTHAN
DAILY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
80
70
60
NO. OF STATIONS

50
40
30
20
10
0
1 4 7 10131619222528 1 4 7 1013161922252831 3 6 9 12151821242730 2 5 8 11141720232629
DATE

LIGHT RAINALL MODERATE RAINFALL RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL


HEAVY RAINFALL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL

Fig.23 Daily Rainfall Intensity Distribution Over West Rajasthan (Monsoon Season 2017)

6. Verification of the Long Range Forecasts

The southwest monsoon rainfall for (June to September) over northwest India was
predicted (96% of LPA) with a model error of ±8%. The actual rainfall for this region and the
State (part of NW India) were 90% of LPA (i.e 6% of LPA less than the forecast). Thus the
forecast for the seasonal rainfall are realized to be within the stipulated forecast error ranges.

Compiled By:-
Smt. Deeksha Gupta, S. A.

Ajay Pal, S.A.

18

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