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Probability Project Mini (1)

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17 views

Probability Project Mini (1)

Uploaded by

elkin.rodriguez
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability Project

You may work with up to three partners for this project.(You will turn in one copy of the write-
up for the whole group. No more than four groups per topic because you will be presenting
these to the class in a four to six minute presentation that includes a visual aid.
If there is a topic you want, you better come tell me quick. THE BEST PROJECT OF
EACH TOPIC WILL EARN BONUS POINTS!
Your project should be done on a powerpoint(probabably easier for this project), or typed
&laminated.
Use good English skills—complete sentences with correct grammar, spelling and punctuation.
Your write-up should contain the following paragraphs (paragraphs contain several sentences
and are not numbered):

1. Introduction
2. Theoretical data & probability answer
3. Description of simulation your group chose
4. Simulated data & probability answer
5. Comparison of theoretical and simulated data
6. Conclusion

CHOOSE ONE OF THE FOLLOWING LETTERS/TOPICS FOR YOUR PROJECT


A. Families of Four: Calculate the theoretical probability(the meanµ) for the births of 4
children(assume births of boys are girls are equal). Show the sample space for this and
include a probability distribution table.(give probabilities for 0 girls,1 girl, 2 girls, 3 girls,
and 4 girls.). Simulate the births of 4 children running at least 50 trials(families
of 4 children). Suggested simulation methods: (a) a random number table, (b)
your calculator (c) coin tossing, (e) dice rolling or any other appropriate random
method. Using your simulated data calculate the simulated probability(the
sample mean) and create a probability distribution table for your simulated
data for 0 girls, 1 girl, 2 girls, 3 girls and 4 girls). Compare these sample probabilities to
your theoretical probabilities.
B. Cards: What is the probability of drawing exactly 3 RED cards out of 4? Calculate the
theoretical probability of this using a tree diagram. This must be done without
replacement(shuffle the deck once and then remove all 4 cards, do not reshuffle).
You must also run a simulation to come up with your sample probabilities. Your
simulation may be done using actual cards or using a random digit table. You must
run at least 100 trials of this. Comment on the accuracy of your simulation
compared to the theoretical probability.

C. Dice Rolling: Italian gamblers used to bet on the total number of dots rolled on
three six-sided dice. They believed the chance of rolling a nine ought to equal the
chance of rolling a total of 10 since there were an equal number of different ways
to get each sum. However, experience showed that these did not occur equally
often. The gamblers asked Galileo for help with the apparent contradiction, and he
resolved the paradox. Can you do the same? Be sure to explain both why the
gamblers were confused and what the actual probabilities are. Include evidence
from trials/simulations and theoretical calculations.
D: Roulette: Roulette is a very popular casino game all over the world.
Consider a roulette wheel numbered 1-36 and a 0 spot.(just like the one in
the picture to the right. Calculate the theoretical probability of getting a #
in the first 12(1-12) OR a Red. Use a Venn Diagram to help show this
probability. You must simulate this probability with 100 trials(rolls). This
can be done using a random # generator, and actual roulette wheel or any
other random method. Calculate the simulated probability of your 100
trials and compare to the theoretical probability. Make sure to show ALL
simulated rolls.

E: 2004 ALCS: The 2004 American League Championship Series


between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox was the first
time in the history of Major League Baseball that a team had come back
from a 3 games to 0 deficit to win the series. Boston scored 7,1,8,6,5,4,
and 10 runs in that order to win the series in 7 games. Below is the New
York Yankees runs scored table for the 2004 regular season.

Runs 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 18

Prob. .04 .05 .12 .10 .11 .13 .09 .09 .07 .04 .06 .05 .02 .01 .01 .01

Calculate the expected number of runs for a single NY Yankee game based on this table. Use
this value as their theoretical # of runs per game. Show how the series would have gone using
the Yankees theoretical run value vs what Boston actually scored each game. Does Boston still
win the series? How many games did the series go? Remember that it is the best of 7 series(first
team to win 4 games).

Run a simulation for the Yankees scoring runs for this series using their probabilities from the
probability distribution table. Use a random digit table making sure to ASSIGN YOUR DIGITS
and show your method clearly. Again show who would win the series, in how many games, and
give the scores.

F: Horse Racing: Consider the following 5 horses who will be racing at the Vaquero race track
next weekend.

#1 Tallica Monster
#2 Kona Girl
#3 Sneaky Fast
#4 Darjeeling Limited
#5 Moonrise Kingdom

Assume that all the horses have the same chance of winning the race.

Give the theoretical probabilities of the following(show all work):


1. Probability that Tallica Monster finishes first?
2. Probability that Tallica Monster finishes first or in front of Kona Girl?
Run a simulation of 100 races keeping track of the same two questions from above. Compare the
simulated probabilities to the theoretical probability.

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