Dr.Ankita Nihlani / Afr.J.Bio.Sc.

6(10) (2024) ISSN: 2663-2187

https://doi.org/ 10.33472/AFJBS.6.10.2024.3767-3778

Risk evaluation and management involved in supply chain

management
Dr.Ankita Nihlani, Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Kalinga
University, Naya Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India. Email:
[email protected] ORCID: 0009-0002-7447-8544
Dr.Parvindar Kaur Chhabda, Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Kalinga
University, Naya Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India. Email:
[email protected] ORCID: 0009-0006-9775-7254
Dr.Byju John, Professor, Department of Management, Kalinga University, Naya Raipur,
Chhattisgarh, India. Email:[email protected] ORCID:0009-0003-
1216-0810

Abstract
Article History Supply chain management holds a pivotal role in determining the success of businesses, and its
effectiveness can significantly influence an organization's performance. Nevertheless, it is vulnerable
Volume 6,Issue 10, 2024
to a wide array of risks that have the potential to disrupt operations, result in financial losses, and tarnish
Received:13 Apr 2024
a company's reputation. This summary offers an insight into the crucial components of evaluating and
managing risks within supply chain management. In this context, risk evaluation encompasses the
Accepted : 05 May 2024 identification and assessment of various risk categories that could impact the supply chain. These risks
may include natural disasters, geopolitical challenges, fluctuations in demand, delays in transportation,
doi: 10.33472/AFJBS.6.10.2024.3767-3778 and issues related to suppliers. A comprehensive risk assessment involves both quantitative and
qualitative analysis to gauge the likelihood and potential consequences of these risks on the supply
chain. Effective risk management strategies are indispensable for mitigating the adverse effects of these
identified risks. Risk management in supply chain management encompasses several actions, such as
risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk reduction, and risk acceptance. Developing a resilient supply chain
capable of adapting to unforeseen circumstances is also a critical element of risk management.
Furthermore, this summary underscores the significance of technological tools and data analytics in the
field of risk management. Advanced technologies like the Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain, and
artificial intelligence enable real-time monitoring and predictive analytics, which can improve the
visibility of risks and provide early warning signals. The success of a supply chain heavily relies on a
proactive approach to risk assessment and management. By identifying potential risks, evaluating their
impact, and implementing robust risk management strategies, organizations can bolster the resilience
of their supply chains and ensure uninterrupted operations even in challenging environments. This
abstract emphasizes the significance of understanding, evaluating, and effectively managing risks in
supply chain management, as it contributes to an organization's long-term sustainability and
competitive advantage.
Keywords: Supply chain management, Risk Management, IOT
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Introduction
Assessing and managing risks play crucial roles in ensuring the effectiveness of supply chain
management. In the contemporary business environment, which is characterized by constant
change and interconnectivity, supply chains are vulnerable to a diverse range of risks, including
natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, economic shifts, and cybersecurity vulnerabilities. To
maintain the uninterrupted flow of goods and services and enhance the overall robustness of
the supply chain, organizations must systematically evaluate, comprehend, and proactively
mitigate these risks.
Supply chain management encompasses the orchestration of goods, services, and information
from their source to their destination, involving the strategic phases of planning, execution, and
oversight. Within this intricate web, multiple factors can jeopardize the punctuality, cost-
efficiency, and quality of deliverables. Consequently, the assessment and mitigation of risks
are crucial for preserving the operational robustness of the supply chain and the financial health
of the organization.
Risk evaluation encompasses the identification and analysis of potential threats to the supply
chain, including but not limited to:
1) Natural Disasters: Events like earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and wildfires can disrupt
transportation, manufacturing, and distribution facilities.
2) Geopolitical Risks: Political instability, trade disputes, and regulatory changes can
affect the movement of goods across borders.
3) Economic Factors: Currency fluctuations, inflation, and economic downturns can
impact supply chain costs and demand.
4) Supplier Reliability: Issues with suppliers, such as bankruptcy, quality problems, or
labor strikes, can disrupt the supply chain.
5) Cybersecurity Threats: Data breaches, ransomware attacks, and other cyber threats can
compromise sensitive information and disrupt operations.
6) Demand Variability: Unpredictable changes in customer demand can lead to
overstocking or stockouts, affecting supply chain efficiency.
Once risks are identified, the next step is risk management. This entails the formulation of plans
to address risks, which could involve measures to reduce, transfer, or embrace them based on
their characteristics and possible consequences. Risk management approaches could
encompass:
1) Risk Mitigation: Putting in place actions to minimize the probability and consequences
of identified risks. For example, diversifying suppliers, building redundancy into the
supply chain, and improving disaster preparedness.
2) Risk Transfer: Utilizing insurance or contractual agreements to shift some risks to third
parties, such as suppliers or insurers.
3) Risk Acceptance: Recognizing that certain risks are unavoidable or not cost-effective
to mitigate and, therefore, deciding to manage them with contingency plans or through
financial reserves.
4) Continuous Monitoring: Regularly reviewing and reassessing the supply chain's risk
profile to adapt to changing conditions and emerging threats.
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Continuous and strategic efforts are essential for the efficient evaluation and management of
risks in supply chain operations. This necessitates the active involvement of a variety of
stakeholders, such as suppliers, logistics partners, and IT experts, in order to enhance the supply
chain's ability to handle unforeseen challenges and maintain its resilience. In a time marked by
growing complexity and unpredictability, companies that make risk management a focal point
in their supply chain strategies are more likely to attain efficiency, flexibility, and enduring
prosperity.
Risk
Risk management plays a vital role in the realm of Supply Chain Management (SCM),
encompassing the strategic planning, meticulous execution, and precise control of the
movement of goods, information, and financial resources within a multifaceted network
connecting suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, and customers. Supply chains are susceptible
to a multitude of risks that can cause operational disruptions, financial setbacks, harm to the
organization's image, and customer discontent. Therefore, it is imperative for businesses to
proactively detect and mitigate these risks in order to maintain the seamless and effective
operation of their supply chains.
One of the most common risks in supply chain management is demand uncertainty.
Fluctuations in customer demand, seasonal variations, and sudden changes in market
conditions can lead to excess inventory or stockouts, affecting a company's profitability and
customer service levels. Another significant risk is supplier-related issues. Suppliers could
encounter challenges like production delays, issues with product quality, or financial instability,
all of which have the potential to cause disruptions in the supply chain. Furthermore, external
factors such as geopolitical events and natural disasters, such as political turmoil, trade
conflicts, and environmental catastrophes, may interfere with the smooth flow of goods and
materials, rendering supply chains vulnerable to unexpected external shocks.
Risk mitigation in supply chain management involves a combination of strategies. This
includes diversifying suppliers, implementing safety stock, using advanced forecasting
techniques, and leveraging technology to enhance visibility and communication throughout the
supply chain. Continuous monitoring and assessment of potential risks are essential to adapt
and respond quickly to unforeseen challenges. Robust risk management practices not only
enhance supply chain resilience but also contribute to cost reduction and improved customer
satisfaction, ultimately ensuring a competitive advantage in the market.
Risk evaluation and management are crucial components of supply chain management (SCM)
because SC are often complex and vulnerable to various potential risks. Risk can be broadly
characterized as the likelihood of unfavorable outcomes, encompassing hazards, harm, loss,
harm, or any other undesirable consequences. Here are some common risks involved in supply
chain management:
Sources of Risk
a) Supply Risk(SR)
Supplier risk (SR) refers to the potential for interruptions in the smooth flow of goods or
information within the network of organizations situated upstream from the central
organization. As such, it signifies the risk linked to an organization's suppliers or their suppliers'
ability to supply the necessary materials to the organization becoming compromised. This has
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an adverse impact on the internal flow of resources necessary for operational activities to take
place, and this phenomenon is referred to as 'input risk.' This encompasses a range of factors.
• Reliance on critical suppliers
• Consolidation within supply markets.
• Issues related to quality and management that arise from international procurement.
• Possible disruption at a lower level.
b) Demand Risk(DR)
Disaster recovery (DR) is associated with potential or real interruptions in the smooth
progression of goods, information, and financial assets across the organization, its fundamental
activities, and the marketplace. This risk offers a chance for dissatisfaction, as it has the
potential to either surpass or fall below the anticipated demand thresholds. It encompasses
uncertainties in both the quantity and variety of products involved.
c) Process Risk
Processes encompass the strategic organization of essential activities that contribute value and
the administrative tasks carried out by businesses. Process risk associates disruptions with these
operational procedures, impacting a company's capacity to generate and deliver goods or
services. This consequence arises from the potential breakdown of a key operation,
manufacturing, or processing capability. It includes.
• Variability in production yields.
• Prolonged setup times and rigid production cycles
• Reliability of equipment
• Restricted capacity.
• Delegating significant business processes to external partners.
d) Control Risk
Controls comprise the underlying presumptions, rules, frameworks, and methods that govern
how an organization manages its processes. Risk arises from the correct or incorrect
implementation of these principles, incorporating various factors. It includes.
• Inadequate principles that disrupt demand
• Lack of clear visibility throughout the pipeline.
• Lack of collaborative planning and forecasting.
Environmental Risk
Environmental risk in SCM is a critical consideration in today's increasingly eco-conscious
business landscape. It refers to the potential negative impacts that a supply chain can have on
the environment, as well as the risks associated with changes in environmental regulations,
resource scarcity, and climate change. Evaluating and managing these risks is essential for
sustainable and responsible SC operations.
Main environmental risks in SCM is related to carbon emissions and greenhouse gases. As
governments worldwide implement more stringent regulations to combat climate change,
companies are under increasing pressure to reduce their carbon footprint. Failure to do so can
result in penalties, increased operating costs, and damage to a company's reputation. Supply
chains, with their extensive transportation and production networks, play a significant role in
contributing to these emissions. Therefore, supply chain managers must evaluate the ecological
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footprint of their activities and pinpoint avenues for emission reduction by optimizing logistics,
employing alternative transportation options, and adopting sustainable sourcing practices.
An additional noteworthy environmental concern pertains to the shortage of resources,
encompassing the exhaustion of vital natural elements like water, energy, and raw materials.
These essential resources play a critical role in the manufacturing and distribution aspects of
the supply chain. Environmental risks associated with resource scarcity involve the potential
disruption of supply chains due to shortages or rising costs of critical resources. Supply chain
managers need to diversify suppliers, implement resource-efficient practices, and explore
sustainable sourcing options to mitigate these risks.
In addition to this, natural disasters and extreme weather events pose environmental risks to
supply chain management. Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of such
events, leading to supply chain disruptions and increased costs. To manage these risks,
companies must develop robust risk mitigation strategies, including supply chain
diversification, disaster recovery plans, and real-time monitoring of weather and climate-
related risks.
Environmental risk evaluation and management in SCM is not just a matter of regulatory
compliance; it is about building resilience and sustainability into the SC. Companies that
proactively assess and manage these risks are better positioned to adapt to changing
environmental conditions, reduce costs, enhance brand reputation, and contribute to a more
sustainable future. To do this effectively, organizations must engage with stakeholders,
collaborate with suppliers, and continuously monitor and update their environmental risk
management strategies.
Environmental risk refers to risks that an organization perceives from external factors, events
beyond its control. This category of risk encompasses uncertainties that arise from interactions
with the SC and the environment, whether they result from accidents, human activities, or
natural occurrences.
The depicted diagram illustrates certain risk origins along with their defining attributes.

Fig 1: Sources of risk and their attributes

a) Risk Evaluation
Risk assessment is employed to evaluate the degree of risk linked to each hazard. The primary
aim of this evaluation is to identify vulnerable areas and activities within the supply chain. This
process entails adjusting the likelihood of establishing a dependable supply, managing the
probability of demand, efficiently allocating resources, and evaluating the success prospects of
new product launches, economic conditions, and the opportunity cost of alternative choices.
The objective of this risk analysis is to craft a ranked inventory of risks in the supply chain,
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denoting the importance associated with each element mentioned. This ranking streamlines the
evaluation of the significance of each risk within the context of the supply chain.
b) Risk Management
It entails the process of assessing or appraising risk and creating strategies to manage it. Risk
management encompasses a broad range of activities, encompassing the process of planning
and decision-making aimed at handling potential risks and threats. Effective risk management
hinges on a thorough understanding and categorization of risks identified during the analysis
phase. This understanding is essential for making informed decisions regarding future actions
aimed at minimizing, alleviating, or circumventing these risks. The process of making
decisions related to risks is often impacted by ethical, legal, financial, and strategic
considerations. It is crucial to differentiate between risks that require action and those that don't.
Deciding whether to address a specific risk and how to do so depends on a thorough evaluation
of the costs and benefits associated with either accepting the risk or implementing measures to
reduce, mitigate, or eliminate it. These risks encompass both improbable yet highly impactful
disruptions, as well as more routine uncertainties related to demand, internal operations, and
supply.
Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM)
SCRM is generally recognized as the cooperative management of supply chain risks among
partners to guarantee the achievement of both efficiency and financial success. These practices
encompass activities such as transferring risks to other parties, mitigating risks, and sharing
risks within the SC. Evaluations of supply chain risks involve weighing factors like demand
and supply reliability, resource allocation, and the potential outcomes of new product launches,
economic conditions, as well as the opportunity costs associated with alternative decision-
making approaches.
A comprehensive risk assessment can help determine the extent of potential SC disruptions.
This assessment can be accomplished by evaluating various aspects of the SC, such as
production or financial performance. Through effective risk management practices, such as
mitigation strategies, the adverse effects of disruptions on processes can be minimized or
prevented.
Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) is of utmost importance when it comes to appraising
and handling risks within a supply chain. A supply chain is a multifaceted network that
encompasses various parties, such as suppliers, producers, distributors, and retailers, rendering
it vulnerable to an array of risks that could potentially impede the seamless flow of products
and services. Proficient SCRM encompasses the identification, evaluation, and mitigation of
these risks to guarantee the uninterrupted and streamlined operation of the supply chain.
In the evaluation stage of SCRM, companies must first identify potential risks that can impact
their SC. These risks can be classified into different categories, such as operational, financial,
geopolitical, environmental, and demand-related risks. After identifying them, an evaluation is
conducted to determine their likelihood and the potential consequences they may have on the
supply chain. This process enables organizations to prioritize risks and allocate resources
effectively to mitigate them. Risk assessment tools, such as risk matrices and scenario planning,
are often used to provide a structured framework for evaluating these risks.
Once the risks are evaluated, the next step is risk management. This entails the creation of plans
to minimize, shift, or embrace the recognized risks. Some companies also opt for risk transfer
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through insurance or contractual agreements with suppliers. Effective SCRM not only
safeguards the supply chain from disruptions but also enhances its overall efficiency, ensuring
a competitive advantage in today's dynamic business environment. Therefore, SCRM is an
essential practice for companies looking to maintain supply chain stability and adapt to an ever-
changing world of risks and challenges.

Fig 2: Framework for SCRM

Figure 3 illustrates our SCRM (Supply Chain Risk Management) process, which comprises
two primary components: supply chain risk analysis and supply chain risk control, hereafter
denoted as risk analysis and risk control, accordingly. It's worth noting that we may also use
the term "risk assessment" interchangeably with "risk analysis." The initial phase encompasses
the identification, estimation, and evaluation of risks. Executing all stages of this process
effectively leads to the identification of potential risk events that could impact the supply chain.
Nonetheless, it's essential to acknowledge that not every risk event falls under the classification
of disruption risk events. Consequently, it is imperative to meticulously assess and appraise the
potential consequences of each unique risk event in alignment with the particular description
of the supply chain operation in question.

Fig 3: SCRM process

After completing the risk analysis process, the supply chain will have compiled a list of
potential risk events and an evaluation of their possible consequences. To efficiently oversee a
supply chain, the subsequent phase involves devising strategies to address these risks should
they arise. Diverse mitigation techniques can be utilized to tackle different categories of risks.
It is vital to evaluate and pinpoint the most appropriate mitigation plan for implementation. In
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order to ensure the seamless functioning of all supply chain elements and maintain the supply
chain's adaptability, continuous monitoring and regular assessments are imperative.
Supply chain risk issues
Managing the risks within the supply chain is a vital component of contemporary business
operations, encompassing the resolution of numerous challenges associated with the
interconnected material flow, financial flow, and information flow that link various elements
of the supply chain.
1) Material Flow: Material flow refers to the tangible transfer of products and assets
throughout the entire supply chain, encompassing the acquisition of raw materials,
manufacturing, shipping, storage, and delivery. Risks in material flow can arise from
various sources, such as natural disasters, transportation disruptions, and quality control
issues. For example, a hurricane or earthquake can disrupt the transportation of goods,
leading to delays and potential product shortages. To mitigate these risks, companies
often employ strategies like diversifying suppliers, maintaining safety stock, and
implementing just-in-time inventory management.
2) Financial Flow: The financial flow in a supply chain involves the movement of funds
between the various entities within the chain, including suppliers, manufacturers,
distributors, and retailers. Financial risks can stem from factors like currency exchange
rate fluctuations, payment delays, and credit risks associated with partners. A sudden
currency devaluation, for instance, can significantly impact the cost structure and
profitability of a supply chain. Companies may use financial risk mitigation techniques
like hedging, credit assessments, and establishing favorable payment terms to manage
these financial risks.
3) Information Flow: Information flow is the communication and data exchange that
underpins the coordination and decision-making within a supply chain. Risks related to
information flow can result from data breaches, inaccurate or incomplete information,
and disruptions in communication channels. In an era of increasing cyber threats, data
security and confidentiality are paramount concerns. Supply chain participants need
robust IT security measures, data encryption, and contingency plans to ensure the
reliability and security of information flow.
Effective supply chain risk management requires a holistic approach that considers the
interplay of these three flows. Companies need to identify vulnerabilities, develop risk
mitigation strategies, and establish effective communication and collaboration processes with
supply chain partners. Moreover, it is essential to continuously monitor and adapt to changing
risk factors in the global business environment to ensure the resilience and success of the supply
chain. By addressing material, financial, and information flow risks, organizations can better
navigate the challenges of today's complex and interconnected supply chain networks.
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Fig 4: Risk issues in supply chain

Results
Risk evaluation and management are crucial components of effective supply chain
management. Supply chains are complex networks that involve multiple stakeholders, from
suppliers to manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. These networks are susceptible to a wide
range of risks that can disrupt operations and lead to financial losses. To mitigate these risks,
organizations must conduct thorough risk evaluations and implement effective risk
management strategies.
The first step in risk evaluation is to identify potential risks within the supply chain. These risks
can include natural disasters, political instability, economic fluctuations, supplier disruptions,
and demand variability, among others. Once the risks are identified, they need to be assessed
in terms of their potential impact and likelihood of occurrence. This helps organizations
prioritize which risks to focus on and allocate resources accordingly.
After risk evaluation, the next step is risk management. This involves developing strategies and
tactics to mitigate or eliminate identified risks. Risk management strategies may include
diversifying the supplier base to reduce dependency on a single source, creating contingency
plans for supply chain disruptions, implementing advanced forecasting techniques to better
predict demand, and securing insurance coverage for potential financial losses. Effective risk
management helps organizations reduce the impact of supply chain disruptions and maintain
business continuity.
Continuous monitoring and adaptation are also essential in supply chain risk management. The
supply chain environment is dynamic, and new risks can emerge over time. Therefore,
organizations must regularly review and update their risk evaluation and management
strategies to stay resilient and responsive to changing circumstances. By proactively addressing
risks in their supply chains, organizations can enhance their competitiveness, ensure
operational stability, and ultimately improve customer satisfaction.
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Fig 5: Risk Score Value’s Pareto chart

The primary concern for those overseeing the supply chain is the risk associated with the
ultimate product quality. This concern arises for several reasons:
• The product directly interfaces with the end consumer, who ultimately defines the
success of the supply chain. Customers have specific expectations regarding the quality
of the products they purchase. However, the actual quality may either exceed or fall
short of these expectations.
• The organization may not possess an accurate understanding of the actual quality
perceived by the customer. Consequently, when assessing the probability and impact of
this risk, supply chain managers are anxious about a factor they cannot directly control,
which is reasonable given its beyond their purview.
• The quality of the final product is intricately linked to numerous risks examined
previously, including factors like raw materials, inadequate staff expertise, or potential
damage during packaging. Therefore, the quality represents the cumulative
consequence of various actions throughout the supply chain.
On one hand, the organization strives to define its products as high quality in terms of their
production, end results, and customer service. The company's objective is to create a strong
brand image associated with quality. Consequently, when customers visit their points of sale or
make on-demand purchases, they anticipate outstanding quality, consistent with the
organization's claims. However, the impact of this risk, if it were to materialize, cannot be
significantly mitigated. A single instance of a dissatisfied customer could have catastrophic
consequences. Hence, the focus should be on reducing the likelihood of the risk occurring.
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Fig 6: Global Outlook of Supply Chain Management

Conclusion
The primary goal of involvement in this project was to raise awareness among businesses that
tend to overlook the risks associated with their supply chains, which can exacerbate their
difficulties. The project aimed to reduce or eliminate the impact of these risks and their
occurrences. In conclusion, risk evaluation and management are integral components of
effective supply chain management. A well-structured SC is subject to various potential risks,
including disruptions in logistics, supplier issues, natural disasters, and economic fluctuations.
By thoroughly evaluating these risks and implementing proactive risk management strategies,
organizations can safeguard their supply chains against potential disruptions. This includes
diversifying supplier sources, creating contingency plans, and leveraging technology for real-
time monitoring and data-driven decision-making. Successful risk management not only
ensures the stability and resilience of the supply chain but also helps organizations maintain
customer satisfaction, reduce costs, and enhance their overall competitiveness in the ever-
evolving global marketplace. As SC become increasingly complex, the ability to identify and
manage risks is paramount for sustained success in supply chain management.
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