ENVIRONMENTAL

IMPACTS OF DIGITAL
TECHNOLOGY:
5-YEAR TRENDS AND
5G GOVERNANCE

Updated prospective scenarios for

the environmental impacts of global
digital technology, and proposals for a
reasonable 5G deployment

SYNTHESIS

MARCH 2021
Editorial board

Syhthesis – Environmental impacts of digital technology: 5-year trends and 5G governance

Authors Reviewers 1
Hugues Ferreboeuf (The Shift Sylvain Baudoin (Expert, Product
Project, Project manager) Owner in IT production)
Maxime Efoui-Hess (The Shift Bruno Foucras (Aix-Marseille
Project, Project coordinator) University, IUT Department of
Xavier Verne (SNCF, Digital Thermal Engineering and Energy,
Sustainability Manager) Associate Professor)
Arnaud Gueguen (7 hours 23,
Mentor | Darwin-X, Consultant |
Teacher)
Layout and data Celine Lescop (AXA, Enterprise
visualization Architect)
Francois Maitre (Open Group
Anaïs Carrière (Communication France, Enterprise Architect)
officer, The Shift Project) Iain Richardson (Enterprise
Fanny Breteau (Graphic designer) Architect)
Nicolas Hervé and Léa Fourcade
(Freelance graphic designers)

Table of contents
01 Introduction : Problem statement and observations 3

02 Objectives: Key objectives of this document 3

Trends: Current trends in the digital sector are

03 unsustainable 4

Deploying 5G: A real-world manifestation of

04 unsustainable trends 5

Achieving digital resilience in Europe: We need a

05 plan 6

06 Summary chart 7

1 - Also members of The Shift Project “Deploying digital sobriety” report working group (The Shift Project, 2020)
1 – Introduction: Problem

Syhthesis – Environmental impacts of digital technology: 5-year trends and 5G governance

statement and observations
How can we make the digital sector compatible with a 2°C emissions
pathway? Which debates merit serious attention, and which players
should be put in motion to work towards a resilient digital environment?
How do we approach the current 5G debate, so as to build a digital gover-
nance system that is both relevant and effective?
Since 2018, our works on the digital sector have enabled us to lay out our vision
for the concept of digital sufficiency. These observations, and the quantita-
tive evidence backing them, have helped to raise awareness around the signi-
ficant environmental footprint of the digital sector and the systemic factors
which have led to its worrying growth. Since then, 5G bids have taken place
in Europe, and the first installations have started. Concurrently, the health
crisis has acted as a stark reminder to society that digital technologies are
now a core component of essential services.
The progress of 5G roll-out in France and Europe offers us a window of op-
portunity to collectively reflect on how we can make digital transformation
compatible with climate and energy-related constraints and how we adapt
our decision-making mechanisms to consider the scale of our technology
choices and their consequences.
The purpose behind debating these technological choices is not to embrace
or reject any particular technology. Such debates are beneficial if they
question what motivates the direction in which we take our digital environ-
ment, what justifies this orientation and how it is to be implemented across
society. By re-examining the stalemate of the 5G debate, we can see that it
is necessary to create the conditions for a collective discussion on tech-
nological choices that is broader, more effective, and centered on collective
governance that has explicit goals.
Without this kind of analysis, our digital policies and development strategies
will remain wasted opportunities in a digital transition that, ubiquitous as it
may be, fails to take on the physical and societal challenges of this century.

2 – Objectives: Key objectives

of this document
Consolidate our quantitative estimates for the environmental
1 impact of the global digital sector, by updating our scenarios from
2018;

Use 5G deployment in France as a real-world illustration of

2
the questions to be raised for scaling and managing a relevant
digital system, based on reasoned and well-considered technology
choices;

3 Show how the current state of the 5G debate calls for building a
broader and more effective collective discussion regarding our
3
lifestyle and technology choices, that aims for digital governance
in line with energy and climate-related constraints.
3 – Trends: Current trends

Syhthesis – Environmental impacts of digital technology: 5-year trends and 5G governance

in the digital sector are
unsustainable
We have updated the prospective scenarios we published in 2018. The
results confirm the previously identified trends: the digital sector makes
up a significant proportion of global emissions (3.5% in 2019) and the
worrying growth of its impacts (+6% / year) is inconsistent with a 2°C
pathway 2.

Technological progress in energy efficiency has always fallen short of

increases in usage. Therefore, it is undeniable that the digital footprint
will only ever increase unless we make deliberate moves to keep it
under control.

Should we fail to reinvent digital behaviors and business models, the

deployment of next-generation cellular networks - starting with 5G -
and the subsequent development of uses (e.g., IoT, AI, edge computing,
high-resolution mobile video feeds) are bound to aggravate this trend.

Fraction of global GHG emissions from the digital sector

10,0%

9,0%

8,0%

7,0%

6,0%

5,0%
3 to 4%
4,0% ow th
6% annual gr

3,0%

2,0%

1,0%

0,0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Conservative Growth Growth less EE* New sobriety

Figure 1: fraction of global GHG emissions from the digital sector from 2013 to 2025 (The Shift Project – Forecast
Model 2021)
* Growth less Energy Efficiency

2 - Our 2018 estimates were slightly higher: 9% annual growth (2015 to 2019) for the digital carbon footprint and final energy
consumption, and a fraction of global emissions around 4%. See the full document for more details. 4
4 – Deploying 5G: A real-world

Syhthesis – Environmental impacts of digital technology: 5-year trends and 5G governance

manifestation of unsustainable
trends
Having grown by 34% per year from 2013 to 2019, the electrical consump-
tion incurred by mobile uses is now 1.5 times that of landline uses. This
makes mobile activity a core component of the unsustainable trends which
were identified in 2018 - and confirmed by the present update - and which
now motivate deploying the fifth generation of cellular networks.

It is not controversial to state that mass-deployment of 5G will incur an

increase in energy consumption, in particular via indirect effects. Therefore,
the real issues lie in the following questions: why and how should we deploy
5G?

How do we move towards a “rational” use of 5G rather than a blanket

mass deployment? To what uses should we limit ourselves, and how should
we choose them? Is 5G really needed for personal use? To what extent will
5G reduce or increase the digital divide? Should we instead favor more
specific applications of 5G – e.g., in healthcare or industry?

The stalemate reached in debates around 5G in 2020 shows that our de-
cision-making mechanisms are no longer fit for the scale of our techno-
logical choices and their consequences. While technology plays a central
role in society today, we are barely starting to realize how pivotal our tech-
nological choices are and thus how critical it is for society to debate them.

Therefore, it appears more

necessary than ever to create a new
system of digital governance at
both national and European levels,
rallying all relevant players to
manage our digital infrastructure. 5
5 – Achieving digital resilience

Syhthesis – Environmental impacts of digital technology: 5-year trends and 5G governance

in Europe: We need a plan

From the above observations, we arrive at three requirements that must

be met if the European digital sector is to achieve resilience:

1
At the national level, creating and
harmonizing decarbonization objectives,
quantitative assessment tools .

Building a new
digital governance At the regional level: giving elected officials
the means to consult the public to decide on
framework priority uses and expansion paths

At the European level: developing relevant

governance bodies suited to the scale of the
Union’s infrastructure, its uses and economic
players.

2 Leaving behind a model where service

profitability depends on massive volumes of
Inventing new data.
3
economic models
Making profitable uses built on modularity,
reuse and lifespan extension of terminals,
devices, and network hardware.

3 Establishing quantified and normative goals

for digital technology, designed to guarantee
compatibility with a 2°C pathway.

Developing digital Developing robust energy and carbon impact

management tools assessment tools.

Developing monitoring tools to measure the

effects of digital governance and adjust it to
achieve our goals.

6
3 - Operators, manufacturers and service providers must be able to offer viable business model alternatives. Public authorities and
regulators must create the conditions allowing these new economic models to be adequate.
6- Summary chart

Syhthesis – Environmental impacts of digital technology: 5-year trends and 5G governance

Today’s digital sector... ... is incompatible with
a 2°C pathway.
is at the heart of
our other systems GHG emissions from the digital sector
Our digital grow by 6% per year, and already account
system for 3.5% of global GHG emissions.
is a key asset to This share could double by 2025.
face future crises

The pace of technological progress in energy efficiency

falls short of fast-increasing usage.

Uptake of Internet of Things (IoT)

User influence effect
Growing usage calls for Comfort of smart / connected devices
increased network capacity.
Generalization of smartphone usage
Pervasive video uses
Soaring data transfer,
especially mobile

Vendor influence effect

Increased network capacity
enables new uses.

As such, making 5G deployments … would pave the way towards a

rational rather than compulsive… new, sustainable digital sector.

Mass 5G roll-out would increase the digital Making 5G sustainable requires

sector's environmental footprint*, from both thoughtful deployment, and being
able to answer two questions:
utilization and production
Where is it To what uses do we
needed, limit ourselves, and
and why? how do we choose them?

To that end, we need a plan:

Building a new digital governance framework, involving all stakeholders

(incl. regulatory bodies, consumers, national and international institutions)

Inventing new economic models, compatible with reducing environmental impacts

(operators, service providers, manufacturers)

Developing sustainable management tools:

7
The Shift Project is a think tank working towards a post-carbon

Syhthesis – Environmental impacts of digital technology: 5-year trends and 5G governance

economy. As a non-profit organization recognized as being in the
public interest and guided by the demands of scientific rigor, our
mission is to enlighten and influence the debate on the energy
transition in Europe. The exponential development of digital
technology, and the way in which this development may interact
with decarbonization objectives of our societies, is one of the
essential challenges of the carbon transition.

Our members are large companies that want to make the energy
transition their priority.

www.theshiftproject.org

Press contact:

Ilana Toledano
Communication Officer
+33 (0)6 01 19 64 04
[email protected]

Project contacts:

Maxime Efoui-Hess
“Digital technologies” Project Coordinator
+33 (0)6 35 13 08 37
[email protected]

Hugues Ferreboeuf
“Digital technologies” Project Manager
[email protected]