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Project Based Problem Solving and Decision Making
roject Based Problem Solving
P
and Decision Making
Harold Kerzner
Senior Executive Director for Project Management
International Institute for Learning, Inc. (IIL), USA
Copyright © 2024 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Trademarks: Wiley and the Wiley logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley &
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without written permission. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
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contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional
where appropriate. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have
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visit our web site at www.wiley.com.
Contents
Preface xi
About the Companion Website xiii
2.10 T
he Impact of Methodologies on Problem-Solving 29
2.11 The Need for Problem-Solving Procedural Documentation 35
Discussion Questions 40
References 41
4 Data Gathering 55
4.0 Understanding Data Gathering 55
4.1 Reasons for Data Gathering 56
4.2 Data-Gathering Techniques 56
4.3 Metrics and Early Warning Indicators 57
4.4 Questions to Ask 57
4.5 Establishing Structure for Data Gathering, Problem-Solving, and
Decision-Making 58
4.6 Determining the Steps 58
Discussion Questions 59
5 Meetings 61
5.0 Problem Analysis Characteristics 61
5.1 Real Problems Versus Personality Problems 62
5.2 Determining Who Should Attend the Problem-Solving Meeting 63
5.3 Determining Who Should Attend the Decision-Making Meeting 63
5.4 Creating a Framework for the Meeting 64
5.5 Setting Limits on Problem-Solving and Decision-Making 64
5.6 Identifying Boundary Conditions 65
5.7 Understanding How People React in Meetings 65
5.8 Working with Participants During the Meetings 66
5.9 Leadership Techniques During Meetings 67
5.10 Handling Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Conflicts 67
5.11 Continuous Solutions Versus Enhancement Project Solutions 68
5.12 Problem-Solving Versus Scope Creep 68
Contents vii
5.13 P
roblem-Solving and Decision-Making During Crisis Projects 69
5.14 Presenting Your Decision to the Customer 70
Discussion Questions 71
Reference 71
6 Developing Alternatives 73
6.0 Finding Alternatives 73
6.1 Variables to Consider During Alternative Analyses 74
6.2 Understanding the Features That Are Part of the Alternatives 74
6.3 Developing Hybrid Alternatives 75
6.4 Phantom Alternatives 75
6.5 Tradeoffs 76
6.6 Common Mistakes When Developing Alternatives 76
6.7 Decision-Making for Managing Scope Changes on Projects 77
Discussion Questions 80
Reference 80
13 Barriers 155
13.0 The Growth of Barriers 155
13.1 Lack of Concern for the Workers Barriers 157
13.2 Legal Barriers 160
13.3 Project Sponsorship Barriers 163
13.4 Cost of Implementation Barriers 165
13.5 Culture Barriers 166
13.6 Project Management Office (PMO) Barrier 168
13.7 Conclusion 169
Discussion Questions 169
References 170
Preface
The environment in which the project managers perform has changed signifi-
cantly in the past three years due to COVID-19 pandemic and other factors. Our
projects have become more complex. There are new internal and external forces
that now impact how problems are solved. The importance of time and cost has
reached new heights in the minds of clients and stakeholders. Clients want to see
the value in the projects they are funding. All of this is creating challenges for
project managers in how they identify and resolve problems. To make matters
more complex, project managers are now seen as managing part of a business
when managing a project and are expected to make both project and business
decisions.
Decisions are no longer a single-person endeavor. Project managers are expected
to form problem-solving and decision-making teams. Most project managers have
never been trained in problem-solving, brainstorming, creative thinking tech-
niques, and decision-making. They rely on experience as the primary teacher.
While that sounds like a reasonable approach, it can be devastating if project man-
agers end up learning from their own mistakes rather than the mistakes of others.
It is a shame that companies are unwilling to invest even small portions of their
training budgets in these courses.
There are numerous books available on problem-solving and decision-making.
Unfortunately, they look at the issues from a psychological perspective with appli-
cations not always relevant to project and program managers. What I have
attempted to do with this book is extract the core concepts of problem-solving and
decision-making that would be pertinent to project managers and assist them
with their jobs.
Some books use the term problem analysis rather than problem-solving. Problem
analysis can be interpreted as simply looking at the problem and gathering the
facts, but not necessarily developing alternative solutions for later decision-making.
In this book, problem-solving is used throughout reflecting the identification of
alternatives as well.
xii Preface
Hopefully, after reading this book, you will have a better understanding and
appreciation for problem-solving and decision-making.
Seminars and webinars on project management, problem-solving, and decision-
making can be arranged by contacting
Harold Kerzner
Senior Executive Director for Project Management,
International Institute for Learning, Inc. (IIL), USA
September 2023
About the Companion Website
§ 8. An Inevitable Corollary
But, if inorganic matter is impotent to vitalize itself by means of its
native physicochemical forces, the inevitable alternative is that the
initial production of organisms from inorganic matter was due to the
action of some supermaterial agency. Certain scientists, like
Henderson of Harvard, while admitting the incredibility of
abiogenesis, prefer to avoid open conflict with mechanism and
materialism by declaring their neutrality. “But while biophysicists like
Professor Schäfer,” says Henderson, “follow Spencer in assuming a
gradual evolution of the organic from the inorganic, biochemists are
more than ever unable to perceive how such a process is possible,
and without taking any final stand prefer to let the riddle rest.”
(“Fitness of the Environment,” p. 310, footnote.) Not to take a
decisive stand on this question, however, is tantamount to making a
compromise with what is illogical and unscientific; for both logic and
the inductive trend of biological facts are arrayed against the
hypothesis of spontaneous generation.
In the first place, it is manifest that organic life is neither self-
explanatory nor eternal. Hence it must have had its origin in the
action of some external agency. Life as it exists today depends upon
the precedence of numerous unbroken chains of consecutive cells
that extend backward into a remote past. It is, however, a logical
necessity to put an end to this retrogradation of the antecedents
upon which the actual existence of our present organisms depends.
The infinite cannot be spanned by finite steps; the periodic life-
process could not be relayed through an unlimited temporal
distance; and a cellular series which never started would never
arrive. Moreover, we do not account for the existence of life by
extending the cellular series interminably backward. Each cell in
such a series is derived from a predecessor, and, consequently, no
cell in the series is self-explanatory. When it comes to accounting for
its own existence, each cell is a zero in the way of explanation, and
adding zeros together indefinitely will never give us a positive total.
Each cell refers us to its predecessor for the explanation of why it
exists, and none contains within itself the sufficient explanation of its
own existence. Hence increasing even to infinity the number of these
cells (which fail to explain themselves) will give us nothing else but a
zero in the way of explanation. If, therefore, the primordial cause
from which these cellular chains are suspended is not the agency of
the physicochemical forces of inorganic nature, it follows that the first
active cause of life must have been a supermaterial and
extramundane agency, namely, the Living God and Author of Life.
As a matter of fact, no one denies that life has had a beginning on
our globe. The physicist teaches that a beginning of our entire solar
system is implied in the law of the degradation of energy, and
various attempts have been made to determine the time of this
beginning. The older calculations were based on the rate of solar
radiation; the more recent ones, however, are based on quantitative
estimates of the disintegration products of radioactive elements.
Similarly, the geologist and the astronomer propound theories of a
gradual constitution of the cosmic environment, which organic life
requires for its support, and all such theories imply a de novo origin
or beginning of life in the universe. Thus the old nebular hypothesis
of Laplace postulated a hot origin of our solar system incompatible
with the coëxistence of organic life, which, as the experiments of
Pasteur and others have shown, is destroyed, in all cases, at a
temperature just above 45° Centigrade (113° Fahrenheit). Even the
enzymes or organic catalysts, which are essential for bio-chemical
processes, are destroyed at a temperature between 60° and 70°
Centigrade. This excludes the possibility of the
contemporaneousness of protoplasm and inorganic matter, and
points to a beginning of life in our solar system. Moreover,
independently of this theory, the geologist sees in the primitive
crystalline rocks (granites, diorites, basalts, etc.) and in the extant
magmas of volcanoes evidences of an azoic age, during which
temperatures incompatible with the survival of even the blue-green
algæ or the most resistent bacterial spores must have prevailed over
the surface of the globe. In fact, it is generally recognized by
geologists that the igneous or pyrogenic rocks, which contain no
fossils, preceded the sedimentary or fossiliferous rocks. The new
planetesimal hypothesis, it is true, is said to be compatible with a
cold origin of the universe. Nevertheless, this theory assumes a very
gradual condensation of our cosmos out of dispersed gases and star
dust, whereas life demands as the sine qua non condition of its
existence a differentiated environment consisting of a lithosphere, a
hydrosphere, and an atmosphere. Hence, it is clear that life did not
originate until such an appropriate environment was an
accomplished fact. All theories of cosmogony, therefore, point to a
beginning of life subsequent to the constitution of the inorganic
world.
Now, it is impossible for organic life to antecede itself. If, therefore,
it has had a beginning in the world, it must have had a first active
cause distinct from itself; and the active cause, in question, must,
consequently, have been either something intrinsic, or something
extrinsic, to inorganic matter. The hypothesis, however, of a
spontaneous origin of life through the agency of forces intrinsic to
inorganic matter is scientifically untenable. Hence it follows that life
originated through the action of an immaterial or spiritual agent,
namely, God, seeing that there is no other assignable agency
capable of bringing about the initial production of life from lifeless
matter.
§ 9. Futile Evasions
Many and various are the efforts made to escape this issue. One
group of scientists, for example, attempt to rid themselves of the
difficulty by diverting our attention from the problem of a beginning of
organic life in the universe to the problem of its translation to a new
habitat. This legerdemain has resulted in the theories of cosmozoa
or panspermia, according to which life originates in a favorable
environment, not by reason of spontaneous generation, but by
reason of importation from other worlds. This view has been
presented in two forms: (1) the “meteorite” theory, which represents
the older view held by Thomson and Helmholtz; (2) the more recent
theory of “cosmic panspermia” advocated by Svante Arrhénius, with
H. E. Richter and F. J. Cohn as precursors. Sir Wm. Thompson
suggested that life might have been salvaged from the ruins of other
worlds and carried to our own by means of meteorites or fragments
thrown off from life-bearing planets that had been destroyed by a
catastrophic collision. These meteorites discharged from bursting
planets might carry germs to distant planets like the earth, causing
them to become covered with vegetation. Against this theory stands
the fatal objection that the transit of a meteorite from the nearest
stellar system to our own would require an interval of 60,000,000
years. It is incredible that life could be maintained through such an
enormous lapse of time. Even from the nearest planet to our earth
the duration of the journey would be 150 years. Besides, meteorites
are heated to incandescence while passing through the atmosphere,
and any seeds they might contain would perish by reason of the heat
thus generated, not to speak of the terrific impact, which terminates
the voyage of a meteorite.
Arrhénius suggests a method by which microörganisms might be
conveyed through intersidereal space with far greater dispatch and
without any mineral vehicle such as a meteorite. He notes that
particles of cosmic dust leave the sun as a coronal atmosphere and
are propelled through intervening space by the pressure of radiation
until they reach the higher atmosphere of the earth (viz. at a height
of 100 kilometers from the surface of the latter), where they become
the electrically charged dust particles of polar auroras (v.g. the
aurora borealis). The motor force, in this case, is the same as that
which moves the vanes of a Crookes’ radiometer. Lebedeff has
verified Clerk-Maxwell’s conceptions of this force and has
demonstrated its reality by experiments. It is calculated that in the
immediate vicinity of a luminous surface like that of the sun the
pressure exerted by radiation upon an exposed surface would be
nearly two milligrams per square centimeter. On a nontransparent
particle having a diameter of 1.5 microns, the pressure of radiation
would just counterbalance the force of universal gravitation, while on
particles whose diameter was 0.16 of a micron, the pressure of
radiation would be ten times as great as the pull of gravitation. Now
bacterial spores having a diameter of O.3 to O.2 of a micron are
known to bacteriologists, and the ultramicroscope reveals the
presence of germs not more than O.1 of a micron in size.[11] Hence it
is conceivable that germs of such dimensions might be wafted to
limits of our atmosphere, and might then be transported by the
pressure of radiation to distant planets or stellar systems, provided,
of course, they could escape the germicidal action of oxidation,
desiccation, ultra-violet rays, etc. Arrhénius calculates that their
journey from the earth to Mars would, under such circumstances,
occupy a period of only 20 days. Within 80 days they could reach
Jupiter, and they might arrive at Neptune on the confines of our solar
system after an interval of 3 weeks. The transit to the constellation of
the Centaur, which contains the solar system nearest to our own (the
one, namely, whose central sun is the star Alpha), would require
9,000 years.
Arrhénius’ theory, however, that “life is an eternal rebeginning”
explains nothing and leaves us precisely where we were. In the
metaphysical as well as the scientific sense, it is an evasion and not
a solution. To the logical necessity of putting an end to the
retrogradation of the subalternate conditions, upon which the
realities of the present depend for their actual existence, we have
already adverted. Moreover, the reasons which induce the scientist
to postulate a beginning of life in our world are not based on any
distinctive peculiarity of that world, but are universally applicable, it
being established by the testimony of the spectroscope that other
worlds are not differently constituted than our own. Hence Schäfer
voices the general attitude of scientific men when he says: “But the
acceptance of such theories of the arrival of life on earth does not
bring us any nearer to a conception of its actual mode of origin; on
the contrary, it merely serves to banish the investigation of the
question to some conveniently inaccessible corner of the universe
and leaves us in the unsatisfactory condition of affirming not only
that we have no knowledge as to the mode of origin of life—which is
unfortunately true—but that we never can acquire such knowledge—
which it is to be hoped is not true. Knowing what we know, and
believing what we believe, ... we are, I think (without denying the
possibility of the existence of life in other parts of the universe),
justified in regarding these cosmic theories as inherently
improbable.” (Dundee Address of 1912, cf. Smithson. Inst. Rpt. for
1912, p. 503.)
Dismissing, therefore, all evasions of this sort, we may regard as
scientifically established the conclusion that, so far as our knowledge
goes, inorganic nature lacks the means of self-vivification, and that
no inanimate matter can become living matter without first coming
under the influence of matter previously alive. Given, therefore, that
the conditions favorable to life did not always prevail in our cosmos,
it follows that life had a beginning, for which we are obliged to
account by some postulate other than abiogenesis. This conclusion
seems inescapable for those who concede the scientific absurdity of
spontaneous generation, but, by some weird freak of logic, not only
is it escaped, but the very opposite conclusion is reached through
reasoning, which the exponents are pleased to term philosophical,
as distinguished from scientific, argumentation. The plight of these
“hard-headed worshippers of fact,” who plume themselves on their
contempt for “metaphysics,” is sad indeed. Worsted in the
experimental field, they appeal the case from the court of facts to
that aprioristic philosophy. “Physic of metaphysic begs defence, and
metaphysic calls for aid on sense!”
Life, they contend, either had no beginning or it must have begun
in our world as the product of spontaneous generation. But all the
scientific theories of cosmogony exclude the former alternative.
Consequently, not only is it not absurd to admit spontaneous
generation, but, on the contrary, it is absurd not to admit it. It is in this
frame of mind that August Weismann is induced to confide to us
“that spontaneous generation, in spite of all the vain attempts to
demonstrate it, remains for me a logical necessity.” (“Essays,” p. 34,
Poulton’s Transl.) The presupposition latent in all such logic is, of
course, the assumption that nothing but matter exists; for, if the
possibility of the existence of a supermaterial agency is conceded,
then obviously we are not compelled by logical necessity to ascribe
the initial production of organic life to the exclusive agency of the
physicochemical energies inherent in inorganic matter. Weismann
should demonstrate his suppressed premise that matter coincides
with reality and that spiritual is a synonym for nonexistent. Until such
time as this unverified and unverifiable affirmation is substantiated,
the philosophical proof for abiogenesis is not an argument at all, it is
dogmatism pure and simple.
But, they protest, “To deny spontaneous generation is to proclaim
a miracle” (Nägeli), and natural science cannot have recourse to
“miracles” in explaining natural phenomena. For the “scientist,”
miracles are always absurd as contradicting the uniformity of nature,
and to recur to them for the solution of a scientific problem is, to put
it mildly, distinctly out of the question. Hence Haeckel regards
spontaneous generation as more than demonstrated by the bare
consideration that no alternative remains except the unspeakable
scientific blasphemy implied in superstitious terms like “miracle,”
“creation,” and “supernatural.” For a “thinking man,” the mere
mention of these abhorrent words is, or ought to be, argument
enough. “If we do not accept the hypothesis of spontaneous
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