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POWER DISTRIBUTION
SYSTEM RELIABILITY
Practical Methods
and Applications
Ali A. Chowdhury
Don O. Koval
IEEE Press
POWER DISTRIBUTION
SYSTEM RELIABILITY
BOOKS IN THE IEEE PRESS SERIES ON POWER ENGINEERING
Ali A. Chowdhury
Don O. Koval
IEEE Press
IEEE Press
445 Hoes Lane
Piscataway, NJ 08854
Technical Reviewers
Ward Jewell, Wichita State University
Fred Vaneldik, University of Alberta
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. All rights reserved.
Published simultaneously in Canada
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any
means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted
under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of
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Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web
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Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in
preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of
the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a
particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials.
The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a
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ISBN 978-0470-29228-0
—Ali A. Chowdhury
—Don. O. Koval
CONTENTS
Preface xix
3 RELIABILITY PRINCIPLES 45
3.1 Failure Rate Model 45
3.1.1 Concept and Model 45
3.1.2 Concept of Bathtub Curve 46
3.2 Concept of Reliability of Population 47
3.2.1 Theory of First Principles 47
3.2.2 Reliability Model 50
3.2.3 The Poisson Probability Distribution 52
3.2.4 Reliability of Equal Time Steps 53
3.3 Mean Time to Failures 54
3.4 Reliability of Complex Systems 55
3.4.1 Series Systems 55
3.4.2 Parallel Systems 56
3.4.3 Partially Redundant Systems 58
3.4.4 Bayes Theorem 60
3.5 Standby System Modeling 62
3.5.1 Background 62
3.5.2 Spares for One Unit 62
3.5.3 Spares for Multiple Interchangeable Units 63
CONTENTS ix
5 ENGINEERING ECONOMICS 97
5.1 Introduction 97
5.2 Concept of Interest and Equivalent 98
5.3 Common Terms 98
5.4 Formulas for Computing Interest 98
5.5 Annual Cost 101
5.5.1 Concept of Annual Cost 101
5.5.2 Alternatives with Different Life Times 102
5.6 Present Value (PV) Concept 103
5.7 Theory of Rate of Return 105
5.8 Cost–Benefit Analysis Approach 106
5.9 Financial Risk Assessment 107
5.9.1 Basic Concept 107
5.9.2 Principles 107
5.9.3 Concept of Risk Aversion 108
5.10 Conclusions 108
References 109
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