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Page 1
Using Statistics
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Page 2
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Using Statistics:
A Gentle
Introduction
Gordon Rugg
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Page 4
email: [email protected]
world wide web: www.openup.co.uk
All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the
purposes of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form,
or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or
otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher or a
licence from the Copyright Licensing Agency Limited. Details of such
licences (for reprographic reproduction) may be obtained from
the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd of Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby
Street, London, EC1N 8TS.
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Contents
2 Measurement theory 15
3 Descriptive statistics 20
8 Non-parametric statistics 77
9 Correlations 89
Appendix 124
Bibliography 127
Glossary and useful concepts 129
Sources of quotations 132
Index 133
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Page 6
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Page 7
List of figures
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Page 8
6.4 Total scores which can be reached with three six-sided dice,
and number of ways of reaching each total score (for scores
between 3 and 10) 58
6.5 Total scores which can be reached with three six-sided dice,
and number of ways of reaching each total score (for scores
between 11 and 18) 59
6.6 Number of routes to each total score for three six-sided dice 60
6.7 Number of routes to each total score for three six-sided dice,
with a line graph superimposed, to show the normal
distribution emerging 61
6.8 A simplified view of a normal distribution 62
8.1 Tiddlywinks outcomes 79
8.2 Two-member club pathways 80
8.3 Paths for two counters going into two different-sized pots 82
8.4 Observed frequencies of counter distributions 84
8.5 Counter distributions: expected frequencies 84
8.6 Observed values minus expected values 85
8.7 Squared and divided values 85
8.8 Part of a significance table 86
9.1 Weakly correlated numbers 90
9.2 Highly correlated numbers 90
9.3 Very highly correlated numbers 90
9.4 Data from Figure 9.2 with ranks added 92
9.5 Differences between rankings 93
9.6 Differences and squared differences between rankings 93
9.7 Part of a significance table 94
9.8 Gorilla ages and nest heights 96
9.9 Gorilla ages and nest heights, with some calculations 97
10.1 Raw data for limpet performance 105
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Preamble
Some [. . .] literati with whom I discussed the matter were at first shocked by or
contemptuous of my audacity in declaring that I intended to bring out a simple
version . . .
(I Ching: The Book of Change, p. 17)
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Acknowledgements
To render just praise to the gallant conduct and impetuous attack of Mr Dillon,
I am perfectly unequal to.
(Master and Commander, p. 326)
I am grateful to many people for their help with this book. I would particularly
like to acknowledge Wynford Bellin and Elizabeth Gaffan for the help they
gave when I was first learning statistics. Barbara Kitchenham, Helen Urwin and
Alexandra Lamont gave invaluable help in the preparation of this book. Any
errors in this book are my fault, not theirs. I would also like to thank Sue
Gerrard for her help with the manuscript.
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Page 12
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Page 1
1
Some introductory
concepts
. . . a wretched character, who had been ostracised, not because anyone was
afraid of his power and prestige, but because he was a thoroughly bad lot and a
disgrace to the city.
(History of the Peloponnesian War, p. 580)
10:10:07:08:07 Page 1
Page 2
work backwards from what statistics are used for in research, then it all starts to
make much more sense.
The reason has its origins in history. Research is about finding answers to
questions. Some questions can be answered without using numbers, and there
is a long and honourable tradition of doing this. Suppose, for instance, that
you were an ancient Athenian being taught by Socrates, and that some syco-
phantic creep of a student claimed that Socrates was immortal because of his
wisdom. You could respond by using logic, with no numbers involved, point-
ing out that Socrates was a man, and that all men are mortal, therefore Socrates
was mortal. Whether this would get you a better grade in his next test is
another question, but it would answer the question elegantly and concisely.
Other questions require a different type of evidence to give an answer. Sup-
pose, for instance, that someone starts an argument about the shape of horses’
teeth. You can’t find the answer to this question by just using logic; the answer
has to come from observation, which in this case would involve observing the
contents of a horse’s mouth.
You can answer quite a lot of research questions using a combination of logic
and observation, but you can’t handle every problem this way. There are many
problems which involve a chain of reasoning which looks logical, but which is
clearly not quite right. For example, Zeno’s paradox involves an archer and a
target. Before the archer’s arrow can hit the target, it has to travel half-way
to the target. That sounds fair and reasonable. Before it can travel half-way,
though, it has to travel a quarter of the way. Again, fair and reasonable. Before
it can travel a quarter of the way, it has to travel an eighth of the way, and you
now begin to realise where the reasoning is going. Since you can subdivide the
distance an infinite number of times, you can go on forever subdividing it, so
the arrow never gets the chance to move, therefore movement is impossible.
There’s something wrong in the reasoning, since movement clearly is pos-
sible, but where is the error? It took more than two thousand years before
someone showed where the error was, and it involved some heavy theory
about the nature of infinity. If the conclusion of that chain of reasoning hadn’t
been so obviously silly, would anyone have spotted that there was an error in
the reasoning? And how many other chains of reasoning with sensible-looking
conclusions do we accept unquestioningly, which might have equally huge
gaps in their logic hiding deep beneath their placid surface? It’s not an
encouraging thought.
Observation also has drawbacks and limits. Imagine, for instance, that a
traveller from a distant land tells you a story about having seen a crocodile give
birth to live young, rather than laying eggs in the usual manner. How could
you check the accuracy of this account? Observing thousands of other croco-
diles wouldn’t help much, since what is at issue is the particular crocodile
he saw. Even if you found that crocodile, and it laid eggs every year for the rest
of its life with never a live birth in sight, the traveller could still claim that it
had given birth to live young when he was watching it, and that the later
observations were irrelevant.
10:10:07:08:07 Page 2
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The perfection of human kind is such a state of mind and body,
as their nature admits of, and as God has provided for them, in the
ocean of his love, and treasures of his grace. The sum of our
perfection is, that being saved from all our enemies, (that is sins,
including all wrong tempers, as well as words, and actions,) we love
God with all the powers of the soul, and serve him, with the whole
capacity, of both our soul and body. And whoever has attained to
this (which whoso denies the possibility of, rejects the counsel and
word of God) is, a perfect man, according to the scripture; manifold
infirmities, necessarily connected with a dying body notwithstanding.
The love of Jesus, filled up in his soul, that mighty void, this whole
creation leaves in human hearts.
I. His Prayer.
From the earliest dawn of the grace of God in his soul, he was
singularly remarkable for constancy and importunity in prayer. He
was early a wrestler with God, and prevailed to the obtaining that
eminency in the knowledge of God, for which he was apprehended
in Christ, and which is here related in part. The more he got
acquainted with divine things, the more did he increase in this soul-
enriching exercise. “He that has never prayed, can never conceive;
and he that has prayed, as he ought, can never forget, how much is
to be gained by prayer.”
Beside the daily, and often public pouring out of his soul, in
general intercession, and occasional addresses to God, in behalf of
needy souls (groaning under the guilt of sin, or body of corruption,
or whatever was the cause) who often came to him for that
purpose; he had his own stated times for approaching God in secret;
in which it was far from sufficing, barely to present himself, and
wait, whether in silence, or in discourse before the Lord. He
accounted the work still to do, unless he felt his spirit affected with
sentiments suitable to his condition; whether of holy mourning, self
reprehension, recovery, or increase of peace and joy in the Holy
Ghost, or some establishment in faith, meekness, patience, hope, or
love.
Praying with all prayer, seemed the business of his life; for the
doing of which, he waited neither for postures, times, or places. An
heart so disposed, rendered holy to him, every thing of this kind,
which may be said of places.
*It was especially towards the conclusion of his Lord’s work, that
he was favoured with such near fellowship with him. He approached
the throne of grace with much of the reverential boldness of faith,
believing, that whatever he asked, he should have the petitions he
asked for; the holy Spirit making intercession in his heart, according
to the will of God. And to such a degree of confidence in him, did he
arrive by this means, that in the greatest straits of his life (and he
met with some things which came home to him, with the deepest
sensibility) he was more than kept up; so that he seemed to fear
nothing, even where, to all human apprehension, every thing was to
be feared. He so abandoned himself to God, in the discharge of his
duty, that his very friends were sometimes ready to charge him with
being a little rash or imprudent. Altho’ he endeavoured to use his
understanding as far as ever it would go; yet acting in view of those
things which are not seen, and from motives referring to eternity, he
was not, it is true, so attentive to the decorums among men, as
mere human prudence would have dictated. And in reality it is a
truth, which is learned from a series of experience, and confirmed by
numberless examples, that whoever would do much for God, should
take care of being (in a sense) too wise. There is reason to think,
that if the apostles themselves had consulted the directions of bare
human reason, they never had undertook the conversion of the
world.
An habitual spirit of mortification served as wings to his prayer.
And perhaps the want of this, is, much more than is commonly
thought, a grand cause of that indisposedness to, and weariness in
prayer, which is so generally complained of among Christians; many
of whom are often even glad of a pretended occasion to avoid the
duty. “Something is amiss in us, and it wanted a name, till the Spirit
of God, by enjoining us the duty of mortification, hath taught us to
know, that want of mortification of spirit, is the case of all, at least
of many of our secret and spiritual indispositions. The excellencies of
heaven cannot be discerned but by a spirit disrelishing the low
appetites of the world. Unless our spirit be mortified, we neither love
to pray, nor does God love to hear us.” We find all the way thro’ our
heavenly journey, that to be carnally minded, in the least degree, is
a proportionable degree of death. And that a mind truly spiritual
alone, has true life and peace.
It is hard to say positively which he was most remarkable for, the
spirit or the gift of prayer, tho’ it need not be told which he most
esteemed. His public character, made it right and necessary for him,
to desire and endeavour after spiritual gifts. And the eminency to
which he arrived therein in general, is too well known to need a
particular relation. To hear him, on some occasions pour out his soul
to God, made one often think, whence hath a man these things?
Such a sluice of divine oratory ran thro’ the whole of his language on
religious subjects, as is rarely to be met with. His public addresses to
God, were commonly well nigh altogether, in the words of the Holy
Ghost. *It seemed as tho’ he turned the whole bible into words of
adoration, confession, petition, supplication, thanksgiving and glory:
while at the same time his expressions glowed with the love of God:
and all this with such ardour, intention, pertinency and faith, that it
has seemed sometimes (one time in particular was peculiarly
noticed) as tho’ the heavens were burst open, and God himself
appeared in the congregation. Something of that Acts iv. 31. was
often conceived while he prayed. But he made no account of this
with regard to the perfection of his own soul. He made it his chief
aim to follow after love, and to live in a momentary spirit of watchful
prayer.
He was often up late at study, and his general time of rising was
four o’clock, or a little after, sometimes between three and four. He
was often urged to take more rest. I remember once to have heard
a gentlewoman, compassionating the wasting, dying condition of his
body, saying, “Sure Mr. Walsh, you may at least, lie longer in bed on
Sunday morning, when the preaching is not so early.” To which he
replied with his usual zeal and abrupt plainness, ‘Should a man rob
God?’ He was commonly up earliest on the Lord’s-day, for which he
had the highest veneration. He has sometimes said, he thought
there was something peculiarly sacred in the very air, and the whole
structure of nature on this day.
*During the long intimacy I had with him, I do not remember to
have known him spend a minute in discourses about national
occurrences, politics, or worldly diversions. He knew that these were
not his affairs, and that his business was One. And the same may be
said of what is called free and pleasant conversation. So provident
was he of time, and so bent upon the pursuit of that “immense
revenue which each moment pays,” that in whatsoever company he
was, unless something relative to the one thing needful was
discoursed of, he either took out a book (impolite as it may seem) or
continued in profound silence, save when he answered a question.
And if at any time any thing vain, or tending to levity was spoken, so
as to occasion the least appearance of approbation in his looks or
gesture, he severely reprehended himself for it afterwards, and
prayed for strength for the time to come.
Although what has been said of him already, implies his just
contempt of every earthly thing; yet his eminency therein, deserves
to be taken some farther notice of. His indifferency to this world was
such, as even bordered upon abhorrency; and the rather, as he
could not but observe, what a gulph to souls it is; and how many are
lost for ever through their undue attachment to it. He kept at the
utmost distance from what worldly men most ardently court, and
earnestly sought what they most abhor.
*To all which, the constant government which he had over his
senses, greatly contributed. The difference of tastes, harmony of
sounds, and whatever his eyes could behold, were as nothing to
him. He was in this respect truly crucified to the world, and the
world to him. Even in travelling through the most pleasant parts of
the country, and in the pleasantest seasons, when the stupendous
beauties of the creation, the spacious firmament, the verdure of the
country, (nature’s loveliest universal robe;) the music of the groves,
and all the joint beauties of nature, might have furnished him with
delightful contemplation; yet he seemed insensible to the whole,
enjoying a
There was at first an eagerness in his spirit for the success of his
labours, but he in time became unanxious on the head, being taught
of God, that having done his part, he should think no more about
the matter, but still go on straight forward, keeping himself in repose
with God: in imitation of the angels, who continually watch over the
souls, which God hath given them in charge; but who lose nothing of
their tranquility or happiness, even when their utmost care is
unsuccessful.
And from hence partly, arose that extreme tenderness of
conscience, which was so remarkable in him, and which gave him a
constant holy jealousy over himself in every thing he did; so that not
a word, motion, or a look, could escape him, unexamined or
uncensured, if it deserved it; hence likewise it was, that he had so
very peculiar a regard to all his words; speaking either to the
purpose, that is, when occasion required him to speak, or not at all.
And yet notwithstanding his utmost circumspection, he was deeply
conscious, how far short he still came of that rectitude, and entire
renovation becoming a person in fellowship with the God of
unspotted holiness.
C H A P T E R ♦XII.
♦ “V.” replaced with “XII.”
V.
H IS great rule was to imitate our Lord Jesus Christ, in the most
perfect manner he could. The whole tenor of his conduct
plainly discovered, that he sought nothing but God. There was in the
chastity of his manners, a purity next to angelical; and a
circumspection in his every step, which declared, that to him to live
was Christ. He kept at the utmost distance from sensual indulgences
of every kind. His senses were kept under the closest custody, and
he examined his conscience almost continually. Nor could it be
observed at any time, that he acted otherwise than within the rules
of the utmost decency.
VI.
*He was a man of tears, and sighs, and groans. He wanted not
indeed the joy of a good conscience; and knowing continually in
whom he believed, he enjoyed the benefits resulting therefrom, and
yet this notwithstanding, the whole of his Christian pilgrimage, was
interspersed with much weeping. He seldom had a dry handkerchief
a whole day together; his eyes being for the most part, in private
especially, as opened fountains; and which did not cease to flow in
the night season. How often have I known him water his pillow with
those briny rivers! Sometimes lamenting his two great estrangement
from his beloved; sometimes mourning for the mourners; but
oftener than all, he was sick of love! Love to the Crucified!
VII.
He was without affectation, a man of humility; not indeed so as
to disown, or not to make use of the gifts and graces, with which
God had endowed him: this would have been to lie against the truth;
but notwithstanding all that he had, yet taking knowledge whence it
came, he esteemed himself as nothing; but was truly diffident of,
and heartily despised himself. And the only use which he made of
the superior qualifications which God bestowed upon him, was to
consider himself as obliged thereby, to devote himself more
abundantly to the service of God, and of his neighbour. The praises
of others served only to abase him, at the sight of his own
nothingness. ‘Lord, I am vile! a worm! O deliver me from this evil
man myself! Thou only art worthy,’ were the frequent expressions of
his lips and pen. If any person, at any time, gave him but the
smallest hint, by way of reproof, he received it either with silence, or
thankfulness, according to the manner and occasion thereof. And
supposing it to be a matter in which he was really without blame,
yet the reproof was not lost upon him. He thereby took occasion, to
enter more deeply into himself, making the strictest scrutiny into the
whole of his tempers and behaviour. He often said to God on these
occasions, ‘Lord, though thou knowest I am clear in this matter, yet,
alas! How many things are there for which I stand reproved before
thee! My God, I adore thee in this, which thou hast permitted.’ He
often repeated as a lesson of instruction to himself, those words of
Kempis, “Thou dust, learn to obey. Thou earth and clay, learn to
demean thyself. Thou oughtest to be such a little child, that every
body might trample thee under their feet in the streets.”
VIII.
There was the utmost steadiness in the whole of his religious
conduct. The course of the sun, and the seasons, is not more
regular, than were his successive exercises of prayer, meditation,
preaching, and study; so that from knowing how he spent one day,
may be gathered, his manner of spending whole months, or years;
allowing only for the difference of circumstances and occasions.
Thus it was in things pertaining to God, and his service; though at
the same time, his attention to himself, his ease and conveniencies,
was such, that some have accounted it not less than blame-worthy
negligence: so truly did he live, not to himself, or the will of man,
but to God.
IX.
The love of God was the fountain, whence issued forth those
fruitful streams, which rendered his soul flourishing as the garden of
the Lord, and extended their salutary influence all around, wherever
he came. It was to this he reduced every thing. All his works were
done in love, and therefore wrought in God. It was a debt he was
ever paying, and from which he was never to be discharged.
‘My God, let me love thee! Jesus, Son of the living God, thou
knowest that I love thee! O love divine, what hast thou done! O that
all the world did but know thee! How would they then love thee,
thou altogether lovely!’ To this effect he often breathed out the
warm emotions of his heart: so deeply was he penetrated with the
love of God his Saviour. He was always exceedingly pleased with,
and frequently repeated those lines,
*Lastly, By faith I stand! was his concluding point, after all that
God had done for him. And it was not unusual with him to say, on
the closest examination of all he was, and all he did, “If Christ
forsook me but for a moment, I should fall and perish after all.” Yes,
it was from his fullness he received all his good things, and with the
dependent helplessness of an infant, he had recourse to him
continually, for light, and strength, and love: for every thing in short,
which he wanted. He could be happy only in conversation with him;
delighted peculiarly in those parts of scripture which describe and
endear him; and from the fulness of his whole soul, repeated often,
God forbid that I should glory, save in the cross of my Lord Jesus
Christ. To him that hath loved us, and washed us from our sins in his
own blood, to him be the glory, both now and to eternity!
C H A P T E R I.
An extract from Mr. Thomas Walsh’s diary, relating chiefly,
to the experience of his own soul, in his course of walking
with God.
His diary consists of the feeling of his own heart, through every
part of his Christian race, with scarce a single hour omitted. He
always wrote down reflections upon himself, as either the pressure,
or felicity of his soul at that time suggested; adding any spiritual
observation, or maxim, which his own experience confirmed to him.
2. It will be easily discerned, that the peculiarity of his writing, is
a certain sententious abruptness; owing in part to the genius of the
Hebrew tongue, in which his latter studies wholly terminated.
Though what most contributed thereto, was the rapid flow of his
soul, on the subjects of which he either spoke or wrote, which raised
him above attending to that accuracy, which writings, at least of a
public nature require. In many places there is therefore a manifest
deficiency, both as to words, particles and stops; in short, like the
writings of the antients, without period or paragraph, in most places:
so that liberty has been necessarily taken to add, retrench, or alter,
sometimes a word, or sentence, to render the sense intelligible;
though still retaining his sense entire.
“At the close of this last day of the year, (1750, the year in which
he began to preach) I examined myself how I had lived the past
year? And could only say, I had not wickedly departed from my God;
but was heartily ashamed that I had not glorified him better;
resolving to watch for the time to come.”
*“I prayed to God for quietness, and humility of mind; and found
assistance against ‘this evil man, myself.’ O for a heart constantly
fixed on God! I was reproved this day in spirit for an idle word.”
“The Lord was with me all this day. I desire to be with the Lord
continually, that my communion may be stronger with Jesus than
ever. O, it is heaven upon earth to have Christ in ones heart. It is the
beginning of the glory of God, to receive the lovely Jesus; and with
him, the joy of the Holy Ghost. O that I had the tongue of an angel
to praise my Lord! Hasten Lord the glad hour when I shall see thee
as thou art!”
*“O how sweet was Jesus to my soul. The rose for sweetness;
the lilly for whiteness; the apple-tree for fruitfulness; what are they
all to thee! Entering into my closet, the moment I bowed my knee,
the Lord poured down a blessing into my soul. O what a heaven
upon earth did I experience for some moments! Tongue cannot
express the goodness of God to my soul. O where shall I find words
to praise? How am I lost in the ocean, of the immensity of thy
mercy! Lord, I know not how to give thee thanks. Where to begin, I
cannot tell. O my soul, fall into silent amazement! Let all I have, or
am, drop into nothing!”
“This morning the Lord gave me language that I knew not of,
raising my soul to him, in a wonderful manner. After preaching
however in the evening, at my return to my room, I felt little life in
my soul, but a Spirit of slothfulness. O what a poor creature! How
incapable of thinking a good thought, or doing a truly good action!
Sinful dust and ashes.”
“The 25th, my soul was very dull. I had a desire to pray, but
could not, through the deadness of my heart, and wandering of my
thoughts. This is a thing I have to complain of in general; namely,
wandering in prayer, want of earnestness and fervour.”
“The 29th, I cannot say, that till three o’clock I had true
communion with God. But then, the Lord clearly manifested himself
to me.”
“1751. April 6. I had not much of the presence of God, nor of the
comfort of the Holy Ghost, yet my heart and my flesh cry out for the
living God!”
“God and his ways were sweet to my soul this morning. Great
was the peace of my mind, and the joy which arose from considering
what the Lord had done for my soul. O how did I long to be
altogether like him, in righteousness and true holiness! Throughout
the day, I enjoyed sweet repose in the blood of the Lamb. In the
evening I preached on 1 Corinthians i. 30. And God did indeed pour
of his gracious spirit into my soul. Truly we had a heaven upon
earth! O that I had the tongue of an angel to glorify thee for all thy
benefits!”
“I am often like a day in spring; the sun shining bright for a little
while, and soon withdrawing again. The sun of righteousness often
shines upon me, with his bright beams; but alas! the light is soon
clouded, and the joy vanishes away. Yet still, blessed be God, my
heart stands fast believing in the Lord. For I take it for granted, that
the want of strong light and joy, no more argues want of faith, than
the absence of unclouded day, argues no sun in the firmament.”
“Saturday June 12. Great was the comfort which I had in God. I
had the full assurance of faith, that God was my God, and Christ my
Saviour. O the happiness of knowing this!”
“The word this morning, was sweet to the souls of the people.
They seemed to drink of the fountain of the water of life. I had a
glorious manifestation of the love of God to my soul. My delight
surely is in the Lord, and his Son Jesus Christ. Thou art my God, my
love, my joy, my help, my health, and my all in all! Blessed be thy
name, Amen.”
“Too much given to talk; had not the usual longing after prayer
and meditation. Yet the Lord helps mine infirmity.”
“Friday, July 9th. I had a lively sense of the Lord’s having blotted
out my former transgressions; and that he had promised to give me
a clean heart. I had great peace; my soul being filled with the love
of God.”
“Thursday 25. I had but little light or power. The Lord humbled,
and shewed me mine own weakness; but did not leave me to it. He
shewed me clearly, that it was neither to my graces, humblings,
desires, doings, or sufferings I must trust for happiness and
salvation, but in Christ alone.”
“Ah, Lord, who is sufficient for these things! O let me die, that I
may see thee! Whither is my beloved gone? Return Lord, return. I
am a feeble and helpless creature. Yet rejoice not against me, O
mine enemy; for though I fall into temptations, heaviness, and trials,
I shall rise again. O proud Philistines, deceitful Delilahs, inbred sin,
pride of heart, anger, and folly, who can remove you. Lord Jesus,
thou canst, and thou alone.”
*“When I look back upon my life I can see nothing that does not
need to be washed with the blood of Christ. My best actions are
imperfect I have need to fly to my Saviour, that from him I might
receive that robe, which is pure and compleat. My whole desire is to
be devoted to thee!”
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