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The Naked Trader Notes

The Naked Trader Notes provide a comprehensive guide on trading strategies, market timings, and ways to identify promising shares. Key strategies include monitoring market reactions, analyzing company financials, and observing trends in sectors, while also emphasizing the importance of stop losses and taking profits. The document outlines specific trading times of the year and offers 20 winning strategies for successful investing.

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connall.walker
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13 views

The Naked Trader Notes

The Naked Trader Notes provide a comprehensive guide on trading strategies, market timings, and ways to identify promising shares. Key strategies include monitoring market reactions, analyzing company financials, and observing trends in sectors, while also emphasizing the importance of stop losses and taking profits. The document outlines specific trading times of the year and offers 20 winning strategies for successful investing.

Uploaded by

connall.walker
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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The Naked Trader Notes

Times throughout day

8AM = markets open UK, over reaction of share prices.


8:30AM = Markets begin to cool-down.
11AM = Markets tend to go quiet.
11:45AM = good time to trade.
1:30PM = Economic data in New York, if markets are up/down watch for UK markets to go
up/down.
2:30PM = Dow Jones opens, watch UK Shares.
9PM = Dow closes

Ways to Find Shares

 Magazines
- Investors Chronicle (Every Friday)
- ‘Shares’ (Every Thursday) riskier ideas
- www.investegate.co.uk
- Look for shares with around £50m and £900m market cp as have a lot of room to
grow
- Look for breakouts, 52-week breakouts show that it has good potential for future
steady rise, check it’s not false (use breakouts as an initial research stage)

 How to choose good shares

- What is it worth? (Market Cap)


- £50m -£900m = potential growth

- What are its full-year pre-tax profits?


- Are profits rising?
- Are dividends rising?
- Is the outlook positive?
- Are there any negative things happening?
- What is the net debt?
- Ideally less than 3x the pre-tax profit or projected pre-tax profit

- What kind of dividend does it pay?


- What does it do and what sector is it in?
- Are markets likely to improve or worsen?
- When’s the next statement due?
- Is the share price on the way up?

 Company reports
- Use ADVFN
- Press news tab
- Type company name you found from trading view screener
- Press ‘Highlight Phrases’
Colour Word/Phrases
RED Challenging, Difficult, Down by,
Unpredictable, lower, poor, difficult
trading, tough, below expectations, deficit
Yellow In line with expectations, cash

Green Exceeding expectations, positive,


favourable, profit up, excellent,
transformational
Blue Debt, covenants, borrowings

 Check for rising dividends


 Check 1Y and 3Y charts for uptrends
 See when the next report is, usually give a ‘notice of results’ a week or so
beforehand
 Watch Directors buying and selling of shares
- Check on news on ADVFN news
- If the director buys or sells a high proportion to their current shareholding, this could
greatly affect share price

 Look at company’s profits


- Market cap should be no more than 15x profit

Stop losses
- Good place for a price alert is around 10% loss as soon as you buy share, or use
support line and go a bit under that.
- If share price raises a good amount, then move the stop loss up above the buy price,
so even if stop loss is hit, some profit will still be made

Taking Profits
- Look for profits above 20% at least
- Watch for a resistance level, e.g., if a price keeps retracting off of 700p (three times)
sell
- When you get to a good profit level keep checking reports too see changes in the
company.
- Only sell a portion of the shares if you think it has future growth

Trading times of the year


- February-march slow growth as people take profit in fab
- April usually sees a burst of high growth, good time to buy at beginning
- May-July sees an underperformance
- August Higher volatility so if get in at the right time, shares can easily move up
- September on average market falls 1.4%, not a good month
- October-November decent time to buy in before Christmas
- December-January Extremely good as everyone has hopes up, more money flowing,
more sales

Robbie Burns Top 20 Winning Strategies

1) Buy shares just before they get into the FTSE 100
- Companies with market cap near £4 billion will be close to entering
- Changes to the FTSE are made every 3 months so look a month before change

2) Love the phrase ‘ahead of expectations’


- Gives a good indicator that good results will be upcoming

3) Find out which retailers are hot


- Visit stores, are they busy? Ask people where they are shopping
- What brands are trending?

4) Seek game-changing developments


- Find companies that are shutting down loss-making areas and reinvesting into new
ones.
- Look for word ‘transformational’

5) Find something cheap


- Look for low market cap compared to profits

6) Look for exciting new issues


- New entrants into markets with a new product, something innovative
- Could be big winners or massive losers, so get out if shares drop

7) What is the hot sector? And its relatives


- Something like oil services, they provide the equipment needed for oil exploration,
but do not depends on the findings of oil, so less risky
- Find the complementary companies

8) Recovery plays
- Finding a share that has been rising, falls a bit but is rising back up again
- Make sure to check debt before buying

9) Get trendy for short-term gains


- See if there is a trend stuck in a price range and swing it
- FTSE 250 is good for trends as such

10) Buy boring companies


- Boring companies tend to have steady growth and be consistent
11) Buy shares with a big growth markets – or the next big thing
- Just doing a high amount of research and check if there is already a bigger better
company doing the same thing

12) Find strong companies in a niche market


- Find growing markets, and find the monopolistic company in that market, or one
that seems the strongest

13) Find bid targets


- To find companies that are possibly about to be bought
1) Seeing increased buying activity in a share
2) Buying into a company that common sense tells you would make a good bid target
for others in same area
3) Keep eye on gossip on sites, papers etc
4) Would you buy this company if you were in same area?
- Check for above-average volume

14) Buy shares moving up to the main market from AIM


- There are around 10 companies a year that will move onto the main market
- Companies with a value of around £600m or more will tend to move to the FTSE 250
- Normally announced that it is moving in results

15) A company’s division booms


- A company’s results will show if any divisions are being successful.

16) Oil exploration


- Has it already found oil?
- Has It got enough cash to keep going?
- What is the management like?
- Is the area it is operating in likely to produce more?

17) Buying on overreaction to news


- When share price has drastically changed due to news, make sure you know exactly
why it’s changed
- How much of their company relies on the sector of their company that news was
reported on?

18) Buy health and safety


- health and safety regulations ever-increasing so new products to improve safety
could be very promising

19) Profits and dividends rise over three years


- check charts
- check to see if dividends rising
- check rev and profit over 3 years

20) Buy what you know


- If you work in a particular sector research it

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