UNIT 4 : COUNTING METHODS ,PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

4.1 COUNTING METHOD

In this unit basic terminologies in probability will be introduced and different methods of finding the
number of elements in an event of a given experiment are given to acquaint you with the basic
terminologies and to develop your skill in finding the number of elements in an event of a given
experiment that lay a ground in determining the probability of an event.

Therefore at the end of the lesson you should be able to define the basic terminologies and be able to
determine the number of elements of an event of a given experiment either by listing method or using
any one or the other of the counting principles

4.1.1 Basic terminologies and fundamental concepts

1. Experiment
A process that leads to the occurrence of one and only one of several possible observations or A
process of observation that has an uncertain outcome.eg Tossing a coin; answering a question where the
answer can be correct or incorrect; drawing a card from a deck of playing card.
Note: In an experiment any event E is either sure event, impossible event or somewhere in between.
Therefore the probability of any event E can be expressed as 0  P (E)  1 where the probability of
sure event is 1 and the probability of an impossible event is 0. i.e. P(s) = 1,
P() = 0 and 0 < P(E) < 1 for any event E such that E  s and E  and the sum of the probabilities of
all the sample points is 1.Where s is the sample space of the experiment.
2. Event
A collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment or an experimental outcome that may or may
not occur. If the experiment is tossing a coin the events are Head, or Tail.
3. Outcome
A particular result of an experiment. In case of tossing a coin, If head face up we will consider head as
the out come of the experiment.
Probability of an event happening = Number of times occurred in past
Total number of observation

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Definition:

In probability the process of obtaining out comes is said to be an experiment, and a set of outcomes of an
experiment is called an event, usually denoted by capital letters A,B,C,D,E and so on.

Example1:
Example1: - If we roll a fair die on a flat surface and observe the number that appears on the upper
face of the die, then rolling a die is an experiment, and if the die showed up a “2” we say the outcome
of a “2” has occurred or an event “{2}” has happened similarly an event of odd number has happened if
the die showed up either a “1” a”3” or a”5” and we can write the event as {1,3,5}.

Definition: In an exp. a set of outcomes which cannot be broken down any further is called simple
event and a combination of simple events is called compound event or an event which can be
decomposed in to at least two or more simple events is called compound event.

Example2:- In an experiment of rolling a fair die on a flat surface and observe the number that appears
up, then

E1= {2}, E2 = {3}, E3 = {5} are examples of simple events and E 4 = {1,3,5} is example of compound
event.

Definition: In an experiment, the set consisting of all possible outcomes each of which cannot be
broken down any further is called sample space or possibility set and the members in a sample space
are called sample points.
points.

Example3: In an experiment of rolling fair die, the sample space is S={1,2,3,4,5,6}In an experiment of
tossing a fair 5-cent coin the sample space is S={H,T}
Note:- Any subset of a sample space of an experiment in an event of that experiment.
Definition: In an experiment, if each outcome appears about equally often when the number of trials of
the experiment is very large then the outcomes are said to be equally likely outcomes.
Example4: In tossing a fair 5-cent coin on a flat surface and observe the face that appears up. There are
two possible outcomes “H” or “T” which are equally likely.
Example5: In rolling a fair die on a flat surface and observe the number that appears up. Then each
member of the sample space S={1,2,3,4,5,6} are equally likely.
Example6: If slips of paper are numbered 1,2,3,4 or 5 placed in a box and one slip is with drawn at
random, then the possible outcomes a 1,2,3,4,or 5 are equally likely.

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4.1.2 LISTING METHOD
If we have an experiment in which we know the possible outcomes are equally likely, to list all the
elements of the sample space of the experiment and to get the number of possible outcomes which
cannot be decomposed any further, we sometimes sketch a tree diagram for the outcome of the
experiment.
Example1: In an exp. of tossing a fair coin and rolling regular die at the same time, list the elements of
the sample space.
Coin die Coin die
1 1

2 2

H 3 T 3

4 4

5 5

6 6

Hence the sample space U is given as

U = { (H, 1), (H, 2), (H, 3), (H, 4), (H, 5), (H, 6), (T, 1), (T, 2), (T, 3), (T, 4), (T, 5), (T, 6)}
i.e. n(U) = 12 = 2  6
Example 4 From a bucket containing six identical balls except in color, where three are white, two are
black and one is red, two balls are drawn at random. In how many different ways can this be done?
Example2: How many three-digit numerals can be written using the digits 3,4,5,6 if each is used at
most once in each numeral
Solution: 4 5 3 5
6 6
3 5 4 4 5 3
6 6
6 4 6 3
5 5

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 3 4 3 4
6 5
5 4 3 6 4 3
6 5
6 3 5 3
4 4

U = {345, 346, 354, 356, 364, 365, 435, 436, 453, 456, 463, 465, 534, 536, 543, 546, 563, 564,
634, 635, 645, 643, 653, 654}
i.e. n(U) = 24
4.1.3 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF COUNTING

Rule: If a selection consists of two steps, the 1st of which can be made in m different
Multiplication Rule:
ways and for each of these the 2nd selection can be made in n different ways then the whole selection
one offer the other can be made in m  n different ways.
Generalized multiplication rule: If a selection consists of K steps, the 1 st of which can be made in n,
different ways for each of these the 2 nd can be made in n2 different ways and soon, for each of these the
Kth selection can be made in n K different ways, then the whole selection one after the other can be made
in n1 n2  ----  nk different ways.
Example1: How many two digit numerals can be written by choosing the ten’s digit from
A={1,3,5,7,9} and the units digit from B= {2,4,6,8}
Solution: The Selection Consists of two steps where the 1 st can be made in 5 different ways for the
ten’s digits and for each of these the 2 nd can be made in 4 different ways for the units digit, Hence the
whole selection one after the other can be made in 5x4 different ways. i.e. there are 20 two digit
numerals
i.e. m = 5 and n = 4
Example 2 How many two letter word in a consonant –vowel pair can be written in English letter
alphabet whether it gives meaning or not.

Solution: The 1st selection (the Consonants) can be made in 21 different ways and for each of these the
Solution:
2nd selection (the vowels) can be made in 5 different ways, then one after the other the whole selection
21 5 = 105 different ways. i.e. There are 105 two letter word in a consonant vowel
can be made in 21
pair can be written , i.e m = 21 and n=5.

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Example 3 Suppose a library has 6 different mathematics books 5 different Economics books and 8
different Accounting books that are to be given to a student one book from each kind. In how many
ways can a student be given?

Solution: n1 = 6, n2 = 5 and n3 = 8 a student can be given in 6  5  8 = 240 different ways

Solution:
Example 4: A) Suppose there are a choice of 6 body styles, 4 engine and 8 colors available for a new
car buyer, in how many different ways can he choose the body style, the engine and the color for his car
B) If the buyer also have a choice of car with or without automatic transmission and with or without air
conditioning. How many different choices does he have?

Solution: A)n1 = 6, n2 = 4 and n3 = 8 then there are n1 n2  n3 = 6  4  8 = 192 different choices
Solution:
available for the new car buyer.
B) n1 = 6, n2 = 4 and n3 = 8 n4 = n5 = 2 then there are n1 n2  n3  n4  n5 = 6  4  8  2  2 = 768
different choices available for the new car buyer.
Example 5: If a test consists of 5 multiple choice questions each permitting 4 possible answers and 3 true false
questions. In how many ways can unprepared student mark his paper with one answer to each question?

Solution:
Solution: n1 = n2 = n3 = n4 = n5 = 4 and n6 = n7 = n8 = 2 . Then the unprepared student can mark on
his paper randomly in 4  4  4  4  4
4 2  2  2 = 8192 different ways.

4.1.4 PRINCIPLE OF PERMUTATION

Definition: For non- negative integer n, “n!” read as n factorial defined as n! = 1  2  3 … n and 0! =
1

Example1: 3! = 1  2  3 = 6
Example1: 4! = 1  2  3  4 = 24 5! = 1  2  3  4  5 = 120
Definition:
In general, if m objects are selected from a set of n objects then any particular arrangement of these
objects is called permutation.
The Principle of Permutation:
1. The number of permutation of m objects selected from a set of n distinct objects denoted by
n!
n Pm =
nPm or P(n,m) and is given by (n − m) !
2. In particular the number of permutation of n objects from a set of n distinct objects in
nPn = n! = 1  2  …  n

3. The number of permutations of n objects consisting of groups of which n1 are alike and are the
1st kind n2 are alike and a second kind and so on nk are alike and a kth kind is given by
n!
n1 ! . n 2 ! … n k ! where n = n + n + … + n
1 2 k

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Example 2: Find the number of permutation of the letters a, b, c, d taking a) 2 b) 3 c) 4 of them at a
time
4! 24
4 P2 = = = 12
Solution:
Solution: a. ( 4 − 2 ) ! 2
4! 24
4 P3 = = = 24
b. ( 4 − 3 ) ! 1
4! 24
4 P4 = = = 24
c. ( 4 − 4 ) ! 1

Example3:
Example3: In how many different ways can an association of 50 members choose a president, vice
president and secretary if no one can be chosen for two of it at a time and every one can be chosen for
any one of it.
50 ! 50!
50 P3 = = = 50 × 49 × 48 = 117 .600
Solution:
Solution: n = 50 , m = 3 then (50 − 3 ) ! 47 !
Example4:
Example4: Find the number of permutation of the letter of the word “Statistics”.
Solution:
Solution: Totally there are 10 letters in the word “Statistics” out of which there are 3s’s, 3t’s, 1a, 2i’s
and 1c. So the number of permutations of the letter of the word Statistics is then
10!
= 50,400
3! 3! 1! 2! 1!
Example5:
Example5: In how many ways can 5 people be seated on a) straight bench b) circular bench if
i) 5 seats are available ii) 4 seats are available
Solution:
Solution : a) i) 5! = 120 a) ii) 5  4  3 = 60
b) i) (5 – 1)! = 24 b) ii) 3  2  1 = 6

EX. 10
How many i) five digit numeral ii) four digit numeral can be written using the
digit 1,2,5,8,9, if

a) a digit may be repeated in a numeral b) a digit is used at most once in a numeral

EX.11
Find the number of permutations of the word “ACCOUNTANT”

EX. 12
Determine which of he following are true and which are false
10!
= 5!
a) 3  4! = 12! b) 4! 5! = 20! c) 2
7!
= 6!
d) (6 – 4)! = 2! e) 7 f) 5! + 3! = 8!
12 !
= 3!
g) 9! = 9  8  7  6! h) 4 ! I) 4 + 3! = 7!

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EX. 13
Find n if a) P (n, 2) = 240, b) P (n, 4) = 360
EX. 14
In how many different ways can we name the vertices of a hexagon by using only the letter
A, B, C, D, E, F

4.1.5 THE PRINCIPLE OF COMBINATION

The number of ways in which m objects can be selected from a set of n distinct objects denote
denoted
d by
( n¿) ¿ ¿¿ c (n , m) =
n!
=
P (n , m)
¿ or c (n, m) or ncm and is given by
m! ( n − m ) ! m!
Note: A combination of n different objects taking m at a time is a selection of m out of the n objects
with no attention is given to the order of arrangement.

Example1:
Example1: Find the number of combinations of the letters A, B, C, D, E, F taking three at a time.
6!
c (6 , 3) = = 20
Solution:
Solution: n = 6, m = 3 3! 3!
Example 2: In how many different ways can an association of 50 members select a committee of 3
members
50 ! 50 × 49 × 48
c ( 50 , 3 ) = = = 19. 600
Solution:
Solution: n = 50, m = 3 3 ! ( 50 − 3 ) ! 6

Example 3: Suppose a set consist of 10 elements how many of its subsets consist of 3 elements.
10! 10 × 9 × 8
c ( 10 , 3 ) = = = 120
Solution:
Solution: n = 10, m = 3 3! 7! 6
Example 4: Suppose 9 men and 6 women attend a meeting and if a reporter randomly select 3
attendees for interview. In how many ways can he select two of them a women.

Solution: c (9, 1)  c (6, 2) = 9  15 = 135

Solution:

Example 5: In how many ways can 12 different books are divided among three pupils so that each
receives 4 books
Solution: c (12, 4)  c (8, 4)  c (4, 4) = 495  70  1 = 3465
Solution:

Note: For non-negative integers n and k with k  n, we have the following properties, which can be
shown using the Definition.
Definition.
i. c (n , n) = c (n , 0) = 1
ii. c (n , 1) = c ( n , n-1)
iii. c (n , k) = c ( n , n-k)
p (n , k )
iv. c (n , k) = k!
v. c (n , k) + c (n , k-1) = c ( n+1, k)

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 vi. c ( n , 0) + c (n , 1) + c (n , 2) + … + c ( n , n) = 2n

EX. 15
Suppose 8 men and 6 women have applied for a job; and if 3 applicants are randomly
selected from this group in how many ways can the selected applicants being
a) all men b) all women c) 2 women and 1 man d) 2 men and 1 women

EX. 16
Suppose a box contains 7 white 5 black and 4 red balls all identical except in color. If
three balls are drawn at random. In how many ways can the balls drawn be?
a) all white b) all red c) all black d) one from each color e) two white and one
black f) 2 black and 1 red g) two red and 1 white.

EX. 17
Find n if a) c (n, 3) = 120 b) c (n, 4) = 495

4. 2 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

DEFINATION
Probability can be defined as
- A mathematical means of studying uncertainty and variability.
- A number that conveys the strength of our belief in the occurrence of an uncertain event

From the above definitions you can differentiate probability to chances or possibilities. As the latter
cannot be quantified.
Probability of an event happening = Number of times occurred in past
Total number of observation
Probability is a number between zero and one inclusive. The probability of zero represents something
that cannot happen and the probability of one represents something that is certain to happen. The closer
a probability is to zero, the more improbable it is that something will happen the closer the probability
is to one the more sure we are it will happen. When probability is 0.5 uncertainty will reach its
maximum.

Example1: In rolling a regular die what is the probability of getting an even number on the upper face.
Solution: When a regular die is rolled, the number that faces up can be any one of the six equally
likely out comes. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 and three of these are even.
Hence n (u) = 6 , n (E) = 3, where E = {2, 4, 6} and u = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, }

3 1
=
P (E) =
6 2
Example 2: In rolling a pair of regular dice, what is the probability of scoring a sum

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 a) 8 b) 9 c) 10 d) 11 e) 12
Solution: n (u) = 36
a) E1 = {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (6, 3), (6, 2)} then P (E1) = 5/36
b) E2 = {(3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 0)} then P (E2) = 4/36=1/9
c) E3 = {(4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)} then P (E3) = 3/36=1/12
d) E4 = {(6, 6), (6, 5), (5, 4), (6, 0)} then P (E4) = 2/36=1/18
e) E5 = {(6, 6)} then P (E5) = 1/36
Example3: five cards bearing numerals 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 are placed in a box and two are with drawn at
random. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers shown on the cards drawn is a) 4 b) 8
c) 1 d) an even number e) an odd number

Solution: U = {(1, 3), (1, 5), (1, 7), (1, 9), (3, 5) (3, 7), (3, 9), (5, 7), (5, 9), (7, 9)}
n(u) = 10

1 2 1
a ) P ( E1 ) = b ) P ( E2 ) = c ) P ( E3 ) =
10 10 10
d ) P ( E 4 ) = 1 e ) P ( E5 ) = 0
Where E1 = {(1, 3)} E2 = {(1, 7) , (3, 5)} E3 = {(7, 9)} E4 = u and E5 = {}

Example4: In an experiment of tossing a fair coin, if 1000 tosses of the coin result 523 head, then the

523
= 0 .523
observed relative frequency of head is
1000 . If another 1000

489
= 0.489
1000
toss results 489 heads then the observed relative frequency of heads is .

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Then the observed relative frequency of heads in the total of 2000 tosses is

523 + 489 1012

= = 0.506
2000 2000 .

Example6: From a jar containing 4 white, 3 red and 2 black balls all identical except color, three balls
are drawn at random. How many different out comes are there? What is the probability that an out
come consists of
a. 3 white balls b. 3 red balls c. 2 white and 1 red balls
d. 2 red and 1 white balls e. 1 white and 1 red balls f. 2 red and 1 black
g. 1 red and 2 black h. 1 one fro each color
i. 2 white and 1 black balls
Solution: Totally there are 9 balls. Hence the number of possible outcomes of drawing 3 balls
randomly is c (9, 3) = 84. Thus

c (4 , 3) 4 1
= =
a. P (3W) =
c ( 9 , 3) 84 21
c (3 , 3) 1
=
b. P (3R) =
c ( 9 , 3) 84
c (4 , 2) × c (3 , 1) 6 × 3 18 3
= = =
c. P (2W , 1R) =
c ( 9 , 3) 84 84 14
c (4 , 1) × c (3 , 2) 4×3 1
= =
d. P (1W , 2R) =
c ( 9 , 3) 84 7
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 c (4 , 1 ) × c (2 , 2) 4 1
= =
e. P (1W , 2B) =
c ( 9 , 3) 84 21
c (3 , 2) × c (2 , 1 ) 6 1
= =
f. P (2R , 1B) =
c ( 9 , 3) 84 14
c (3 , 1) × c (2 , 2) 3 1
= =
g. P (1R , 2B) =
c ( 9 , 3) 84 28
c (4 , 1) × c (3 , 1)× c (2 , 1) 4 × 3 × 2 2
= =
h. P (1W , 1R , 1B) =
c (9 , 3) 84 7
c (4 , 2) × c (2 , 1) 6 × 2 12 1
= = =
i. P (2W , 1B) =
c (9 , 3) 84 84 7

4.2.1 PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY OF EVENT

Definition:
In an experiment if it is certain for an event to occur it is called sure event and if it is certain for an
event not to occur it is called an impossible event.

Example: In rolling a fair die, the event of getting the set of prime number E 1 and the set of composite
number E2 on the upper face are two mutually exclusive events since E 1 = {2, 3, 5} and E2 = {4, 6} can
not occur simultaneously.
Definition:

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In an experiment two events are said to be complementary iff they are disjoint whose union gives the
sample spaces.
Rule of complementary events: If E and E are two complementary events of an experiment then
P(E) + P(E) = 1
Example3: In rolling a regular die, what is the probability that the face appears up shows not

composite number?Solution: U = {1,2,3,4,5,6} Let E = {4,6} the

Ē = {1,2,3,5}

2 2 4
and P( Ē) = 1 - P (E)= 1 - =
P(E) =
6 6 6
Example4: In tossing a fair 5-cent coin three times, what is the probability of achieving at least one
head in the three tosses?

Solution: U = (HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}. Let E be an event consisting of
no head i.e. E = {TTT} then E is an event consisting of at least one head.

1 1 7
and P( Ē) = 1 - P ( E) = 1 - =
Since P(E) =
8 8 8
Example5: Suppose a family plan to have four children. What is the probability that not all the
children have the same sex if it is equally likely for a son or daughter to be born?

Solution: n (u) = 16, let E be an event that the children are all sons or all daughters i.e.

2 2 14 7
and P( Ē) = 1 - P (E)= 1 - = =
E = {SSSS,DDDD}then P(E) =
16 16 16 8
Definition:

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Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the
occurrence of the other. Several events are similarly independent if the occurrence of any one does not
affect the probabilities of the occurrence of the other. If two events are not independent then they are
said to be dependent. Similarly several events are not independent then they are said to be dependent.
Example6: In rolling a pair of fair dice. Let E 1 be an event consisting of prime number that appears on
the upper face of the first die and E 2 be an event consisting of composite number that appears on the
upper face of the second die, then since the occurrence of E 1 does not affect the probability of the
occurrence of E2, E1 and E2 are said to be independent events.

Example 7: Suppose a box contains 10 balls all identical except in color where 6 of them are white
and 4 of them black. If one ball is drawn randomly and is obtained to be white, without replacement ifa

5
second ball is drawn randomly then the probability that a second ball to be white is
9 , to

4 6
be black is
9 . But the probability that a first ball to be white was
10 , to be

4
black was
10 Hence the two events are dependent events, since the occurrence of one
affects the probability of the occurrence of the other.
Note: If the balls were drawn with replacement, the two events would be independent since the
probabilities of a second event to occur would not be affected by the occurrence of the first.
Example 8: If 3 light bulbs are chosen at random from a dozen of bulbs of which 4 are defective, what
is the probability that
a) none is defective b) all defective
c) 1 defective and 2 non defectived) 2 defective and 1 non defective
Solution: there are c (12, 3) ways of choosing 3 bulbs from 12 i.e. 220

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 c (8 , 3) 56 14
= =
a)
220 220 55
c ( 4 , 3) 4 1
= =
b)
220 220 55
c (4 , 1) × c (8 , 2) 4 ×28 28
= =
c)
220 220 55
c (4 , 2) × c (8 , 1 ) 12 12
= =
d)
220 220 55
Example9: Suppose from a box containing 7 white and 3 black balls, we draw 2 balls turn by turn
with out replacement. What is the probability of drawing 1 white and 1 black ball?

7 3 21
× =
10 9 90
Solution: The probability of drawing 1st white and then 2nd black is .

3 7 21
× =
The probability of drawing 1st black and 2nd white is
10 9 90 . Hence the total
probability of drawing 1 white and 1 black is

21 21 42 7 c (7 , 1) × c (3 , 1) 7 × 3 7
+| = = or P(1w , 1b) = = =
90 90 90 15 c (10 , 2) 45 15
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4.2.2 MULTIPLICATION RULE OF PROBABILITY

In an experiment the probability that two independent events E1 and E2 occurring is given by P(E 1
E2) = P(E1)  P(E2)
In general the probabilities of n independent events E1, E2, … , En happening is given by
P(E1 E2  …  E2) = P(E1)  P(E2)  , …,  P(En)

Example 1: Suppose a die is thrown twice, what is the probability of the 1 st throw being less than 3
and the 2nd throw being less than 4.

Solution: Let E1 be an event of the 1st throw being less than 3, and E 2 be an event of the 2nd throw

2 3 1
. =
being less than 4. Then P (E  E ) = P (E )  P (E ) =
1 2 1
6 6
2
6
Example 2: Suppose one box contains 5 black and 3 white balls and a second box contains 4 black and
6 white balls if one ball is drawn from each box, what is the probability that
a) both are black b) both are white c) 1 white and 1 black

Solution: a) let E1 be an event of being black from the 1 st box and E2 be an event of being black from
the 2nd box. Then E1 and E2 are independent.

5 4 1
. =
 P (E  E ) = P (E ) . P (E ) =
1 2 1 2
8 10 4
b) E1 is then an event of being white from the 1 st box and E2 is an event of being white from the 2 nd
box. Then E1 and E2 are also in dependent events

3 6 9
. =
 P (E  E ) = P (E ) . P (E ) =
1 2 1 2
8 10 40

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c) We get an event of 1 white and 1 black if either we get an event of being white from the 1 st box and
black from the 2nd box or an event of being black from the 1 st box and white from the 2 nd box. Thus P
(E1 E2 )  (E1 E2) = P (E1 E2) + P (E1 E2) = P(E1) . P (E2) + P (E1) . P (E2)

5 6 3 4 21
. + . =
=
8 10 8 10 40 or
P (1w , 1b) = 1 – [P (E1 E2) + P (E1 E2) =

1 −
10
40
+
9
40 ( ) =
21
40 or

c (5 , 1) × c (6 , 1) + c (3 , 1) × c (4 , 1) 30 + 12 21
= =
P (1w , 1b) =
c (8 , 1) × c (10 , 1) 80 40

Example 3: What is the probability of getting two consecutive kings if two cards are drawn at random
from a deck of 52 playing cards if
a) the 1st card is replaced before the 2nd card is drawn
b) the 1st card is not replaced before the 2nd card is drawn

Solution: a) There are 4 kings among the 52 cards. Thus the probability of the 1 st king and 2nd king to

4 4 1
. =
be drawn is
52 52 169 (the two events are independent)

Statistics for finance lecture note by Legese T. July 2009/2017 edited Page 16
 st
card drawn is king and not replaced then there are only 3 kings remained among the rest 51
b) If the 1

4 3 1
. =
cards the probability of the 1st king and 2nd king is
52 51 221
4.2.3 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

When two events are dependent, the concept of conditional probability is used to show the occurrence
of the related events.
Definition:
If A and B are two dependent events then the probability of event B occurring given that event A has
occurred denoted by P (B\A) read as probability of event B given that event A has occurred is called the
conditional probability of B given that A has occurred given by

P (B ∩ A )
P ( B \A ) =
P ( A)
Note: If A and B are independent events then P (B\A) must equal P (B) since the occurrence of A
should not affect P (B). Hence P (A  B) = P (A) . P (B) if A and B are independent events and P (A
 B) = P (A) . P (B\A)
= P (B) . P (A\B) if A and B are dependent events

Example1: Suppose there are 30 applicants for a job in a certain organization, which are cross-
classified by their sex and color.
Black White
Male 12 8
Female 4 6

Assume that each applicant is equally likely to be chosen for a job. What is the probability that the
applicant chosen is

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a) black b) white c)male
d) female e) male and black
f) female and black g) male and whiteh) female and white

Solution: Let B stands for the set of black applicant W stands for white applicant M stands for male
applicant and F stands for female applicant

12 + 4 8 8+6 7
= =
a) P (B) =
30 15 30 15
b) P (W) =

12 + 8 2 4+6 1
= =
c) P (M) =
30 3 d) P (F) =
30 3
12 8
e) P (M  B) =
30 g) P (M  W) =
30
4 6
f) P (F  B) =
30 30
h) P (F  W) =
Example2: In Example 1 above find the probability that an applicant chosen is
a) male given that black is chosenb) male given that white is chosen
c) female given that black is chosend) female given that white is chosen

P ( M ∩ B ) 12 8 12 3
= = =
Solution: a) P (M/B) =
P (B ) 30 15 16 4

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 P (M ∩W ) 8 15 4
= . =
b) P (M/W) =
P (W ) 30 7 7
P ( F ∩ B) 4 15 1
= . =
c) P (F/B) =
P (B ) 30 8 4
P (F ∩W ) 6 15 3
= . =
d) P (F/W) =
P (W ) 30 7 7
4.2.4 ADDITION RULE OF PROBABILITY

In an experiment the probability of one or the other events A or B happening is given by

P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A  B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive then P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B) since A  B = 
and P (A  B) = P ( ) = 0
In general if the probabilities of n mutually exclusive events E1, E2, … , En happening are
P1, P2, …, Pn respectively, then the probability of one or the other of the n mutually exclusive events to
occur is given by P (E1  E2 …En) = P (E1) + P (E2) + … + P (En) = P1 + P2 + …+ Pn
Example1: In throwing a pair of dice, what is the probability of achieving a sum between 6 and 10.
Solution: Let E1 be an event achieving a sum 7 then E 1 = {(1, 6), (1,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)} hence

6
P (E1) =
36 , Let E2 be an event of achieving a sum 8 then E 2 = {(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3),

5
(6,2)}, hence P (E2) =
36 . Let E3 be an event achieving a sum 9 then E3 = {(3,6), (4,5),

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 4
(5,4), (6,3)} hence P (E3) =
36 since E1, E2 and E3 are mutually exclusive events P (E 1 

6 5 4 15
+ + =
36 36 36 36
E2 E3) = P (E1) + P (E2) + P (E3) =
Example2: 9 cards bearing numerals 1,2,3 …or 9 is placed in box and one card is withdrawn
randomly. What is the probability that the card drawn is numbered either an odd number or a multiple
of 3?
Solution: Let E1 be an event of odd numbered to be drawn i.e.E 1 = {1,3,5,7,9} and E2 be an event of
multiple of 3 to be drawn i.e. E2 = {3,6,9}

5 3 2 6 2
+ − = =
 P (E  E ) = P (E ) + P (E ) - P (E  E ) =
1 2 1 2 1 2
9 9 9 9 3
Example3: find the probability of drawing a black card or a king from a deck of 52 cards randomly.

Solution: Let E1 be the event of drawing a black card, then n (E1) = 26 and E2 be the event of drawing
a king then n (E2) = 4 where 2 of them are black.

26 4 2 7
+ − =
P (E  E ) = P (E ) + P (E ) - P (E  E ) =
1 2 1 2 1 2
52 52 52 13


4.3 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

4.3.1 RANDOM VARIABLE

Definition:

A random variable is a variable whose values are determined by chance. Or,

A random variable is a numerical description of the outcome of an experiment.

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Notation: Random variables are usually denoted by capital letters like X, Y, Z, etc.
Example 1: Consider the experiment of tossing of fair coin once.

The sample space is S={H, T} where H denotes the outcome ‘Head’ and T denotes the outcome ‘Tail’.
So, there are two possible outcomes H or T.
Now, let the random variable X represents the outcome `Head’, then X can take the value 0 or 1.
Example 2: Suppose a single fair die is rolled once.
The sample space of this experiment constitutes six possible outcomes,
S = {1, 2, 3 , 4, 5, 6}
Let the random variable Y denotes the outcome ‘A number greater than 2 occurs’. Then the random
variable can assume the values 3, 4, 5 or 6.
Examples 3: Consider the experiment of rolling two fair dice once simultaneously.
If the random variable T indicates the outcome `the sum of the numbers on the two dice is greater than
10,’ then T can take the pairs (5, 6), (6, 5) or (6, 6) since in each of these cases the sum of the numbers
is grater than 10.

4.3.1.1 Types of Random Variables

As stated above, a random variable provides a means of associating a numerical value with each
possible experimental outcome.
Depending upon the numerical values it can assume, a random variable can be classified into two major
divisions.
A) Discrete Random Variable: is a random variable that may assume either a finite number of
values or an infinite sequence (e.g. 1, 2, 3…) of values. In general, a discrete random variable
takes whole number values, which can be counted or enumerated.
Example: The number of students who are enrolled for a diploma program in Unity University
College, the number of defective batteries observed in assessing its quality, the number of customers
who visit a shop during one day of operation are all examples of discrete random variables.
B) Continuous Random Variable: is a random variable which may take on all values in a certain
interval or collection of intervals. A Continuous random variable, as the name implies, assumes
all possible values between any two values.
Example: Weight, time, temperature, etc are example of continuous random variable.

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Remark: One way to determine whether a random variable is discrete or continuous is to think of the
values of the random variable as points on a line segment. If the entire line segment between any two of
these points also represents values the random variable may assume, then the random variable is
continuous.
4.3.2 DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
The probability distribution for a random variable describes how the probabilities are distributed over
the values of the random variable. For a discrete random variable X, the probability function is denoted
by P(X). The probability function provides the probability for each value of the random variable.
A probability distribution may in general be defined as follows:
Definition:
A probability distribution is a correspondence, which assigns probabilities to the values of a
random variable.

Example 1: Construct a probability distribution for the number of heads in tossing two fair coins
simultaneously once.
Solution: The sample space of the experiment contains the following:
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Let the random variable X denotes the ‘number of heads’. We then use the probability function P(X) to
assign probability to each out come consequently; the probability distribution is given below:

Outcome, X 0 1 2

Probability, P(X) ¼ ½ ¼

The probability distribution shows that the probability that the random variable can assume the value 0
is ¼, the value 1 is ½ and the value 2 is ¼. Note that the sum of these probabilities is 1.
Example 2: The number of mistakes a typist made in ten days of assessment is shown in the following
table.

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 No of mistakes 2 3 4 5
No of days 1 4 3 2

a) Construct a probability distribution for the number of mistakes she committed.

b) Represent graphically the probability distribution in part (a).

Solution:
a) In Constructing the probability distribution, our random variable assumes a value for the
number of mistakes the typist committed. Let the variable X denotes this random variable.
Then, we assign a probability for each of the number of days with respect to the total number of
days.
The probability distribution is shown below:

No of mistakes, X 2 3 4 5

Probability, P(X) 1/10 4/10 3/10 2/10

4.3.3 TYPES OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A probability distribution can be classified as a discrete or continuous probability distribution

according to whether it assumes a discrete or continuous random variable.
This section discusses discrete probability distribution. Continuous probability distribution will be seen
in the next unit.In the construction of the probability distribution for a discrete random variable, the
following two conditions must be satisfied.
Properties (Required Conditions) for a Discrete Probability Distribution
The sum of the probabilities of all the events in the sample space must equal 1.
i.e.  P(x) =1
The probability of each event in the sample space must be between or equal to 0 and 1.
i.e. 0  P(x)  1

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For instance, in the above example, these two conditions are satisfied since
 P(X) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5) = 0.1+ 0.4 + 0.3 + 0.2 = 1 and
each of these probabilities is greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1.
For some discrete random variables, the probability distribution can be given as a formula that yields
(x) for every possible value of x.
Example 3: Suppose a probability distribution is given by the formula:
 (x) = x/5 for x = 0, 2, 3
Construct the probability distribution correspondence.
Solution:
The outcome x assumes the values 0, 2 and 3

Out come, x 0 2 3
Probability, (x) 0/5 2/5 3/5

4.3.4 EXPECTED VALUE AND VARIANCE OF A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

4 3.4.1 Expected Value
The expected value, or mean, of a random variable is a measure of the central location for the random
variable. It is denoted by E(x) or . The mathematical expression for the expected value of a discrete
random variable x is as follows:

Expected value of a discrete random variable:

E(x)=  = x1 P(x1) + x2 . P(x2) +………..+ xn P(Xn) Or,
n
∑ xi
E (x) = i=1 . P(xi)
where x1, x2,-------,xn are the outcomes and P(x1), P(x2)…P(xn) are the
corresponding probabilities.

The above formula shows that in order to compute the expected value of a discrete random variable, we
must multiply each value of the random variable by the corresponding probability
P(x) and then add the resulting products.

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4 3.4.2 Expected Value
Variance
While the expected value provides the mean value for the random variable, we often need a measure of
dispersion, or variability, for the random variable just as we need variance in block 5 to summarize the
dispersion in a data set. The mathematical expression for the variance of a discrete random variable is
as follows:
Variance of a discrete probability distribution, σ 2
σ2 =

n n
∑[
i=1
( i
x − μ 2
) ( i ) ∑ 2 ( i)
. P x = x P x . μ 2
] i=1
[ i ]

and the standard deviation is

ó = √ó 2

Example 1: If three fair coins are tossed, find the expected number of heads that will occur and obtain
the variance.
Solution: Begin by constructing the probability distribution for the number of heads in tossing the three
coins.
The probability distribution is constructed below:

No of heads, x 0 1 2 3
Probability, P(x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

4
∑
Then, E(x)= i=1 xi.P(xi) = xi P(x1) + x2 . P(x2) + x3 . P(x3) + x4 . P(x4)
= 0·1/8 + 1·3/8 + 2·3/8 + 3·1/8
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 = 0 + 3/8 + 6/8 + 3/8 = 12/8 = 6/4 = 3/2 = 1.5
The theoretical mean  = 1.5 implies that if the experiment is done as many times as possible, then on
the average a head occurs 1.5 of the time.

4
∑
2 = i=1 [(xi-)2·P(xi)]
= (x1 - )2 · P(x1) + (x2 - )2 · P(x2) + (x3- )2 · P(x3) + (x4- )2 ·P(x4)
= (0 - 1.5)2 · 1/8 + (1-1.5)2 · 3/8 + (2 - 1.5)2 · 3/8 + (3 - 1.5)2 · 1/8
2 = 0.5
Example 2: One thousand tickets are sold at $1 each for a color television valued at $350. What is the
expected value if a person purchases one ticket?
Solution:
The problem can be seen as follows:
When a person purchases one ticket, he has two chances, to lose $1 or gain $349.

Gain, x $ 349 -$1

P(x) 1/1000 999/1000
Hence, E(x) = $349 · 1/1000 + (-$1) · 999/1000 = -$0.65
Or, E(x) = overall gain - $1 = $350 · 1/1000 - $1 = $0.65
i.e. The average loss is $0.65 for each of the 1000 ticket holders.

4.4 THE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

The Binomial Probability Distribution is a discrete probability distribution that has many applications.
It is associated with a multi-step experiment that we call the Binomial experiment, which is a
probability experiment satisfying the following four requirements.

Properties of the Binomial Experiment

a) Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes that can be reduced
to two outcomes (success or failure).
b) There must be a fixed number of trials.
c) The outcomes of each trial must be independent.

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 d) The probability of a success must remain the same for each trial.

Definition:
A probability distribution showing the outcomes of a Binomial experiment along with the
corresponding probabilities is termed as a Binomial Probability Distribution.
In a Binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x successes in n trials is given by:

n!
P(x) = . p x . qn−x
( n− x ) ! x !
Where x is the number of successes
P(x) is the probability of success
n is the number of trials
P is the numerical probability of success
q is the numerical probability of failure
Note:q = 1 - p and 0  x  n
Example 1: Consider the experiment of tossing a coin three times. Show that it is a binomial
experiment and find the probability of getting exactly two heads.
Solution:
This is a binomial experiment since
i) There are only two outcomes, head and tail.
ii) The number of trials is fixed (three)
iii) The probability of success, getting a head, does not change from trial to trial.
iv) The trials or tosses are independent, since the outcome of any trial is not affected by the
outcome of any other trial

Now, to find the probability of getting two heads, let p denotes the probability of getting a head on a
single toss.
Then p = 1/2, q = 1-1/2 = 1/2
n = 3, x = 2

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 n!
P(x) = . p x . q n− x
( n−x ) ! x !
3! 12 1
() () 3! 1 1
()()
3−2
= . . = . .
P(2)
( 3−2 ) ! 2! 2 2 1!2! 4 2
3
=
8 = 0.375
Example 2: A new drug is effective 60% of the time. What is the probability that in a random sample
of 4 patients, it will be effective on two of them?
Solution:
This is a Binomial experiment as the points of the experiment are satisfied. Define ‘effective’ as
‘success’ and ‘non effective’ as ‘failure’. Then,
p = 0.6, q = 1 - 0.6 = 0.4, n = 4, x=2
Required p (2) = ?

4! 2 2
P (2) = . ( 0.6 ) . ( 0.4 ) = ( 6 ) ( 0.0576 ) = 0.3456
( 4 − 2 ) ! 2!
Hence, the drug will be effective on two of a random sample of 4 patients with a probability of 0.3456 (or 34.56%).

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