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Instructor’s Manual
to Accompany
ssm
mtt
bb99
88@
@

Chapter 1
1. S = {(R, R), (R, G), (R, B), (G, R), (G, G), (G, B), (B, R), (B, G), (B, B)}
ggm

The probability of each point in S is 1/9.

2. S = {(R, G), (R, B), (G, R), (G, B), (B, R), (B, G)}
3. S = {(e1 , e2 , . . . , en ), n ≥ 2} where ei ∈(heads, tails}. In addition, en = en−1 =
heads and for i = 1, . . . , n − 2 if ei = heads, then ei+1 = tails.
maa

P{4 tosses} = P{(t, t, h, h)} + P{(h, t, h, h)}

 4
1 1
=2 =
2 8
4. (a) F(E ∪ G)c = F E c G c
iill..cc

(b) E F G c
(c) E ∪ F ∪ G
(d) E F ∪ E G ∪ F G
(e) E F G
(f) (E ∪ F ∪ G)c = E c F c G c
(g) (E F)c (E G)c (F G)c
oom

(h) (E F G)c
5. 43 . If he wins, he only wins $1, while if he loses, he loses $3.
6. If E(F ∪ G) occurs, then E occurs and either F or G occur; therefore, either E F
m

or E G occurs and so
E(F ∪ G) ⊂ E F ∪ E G

Introduction to Probability Models, Eleventh Edition. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-407948-9.00019-0

© 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
complete document is available on https://unihelp.xyz/ *** contact me if site not loaded
2 Introduction to Probability Models

Similarly, if E F ∪ E G occurs, then either E F or E G occurs. Thus, E occurs and

either F or G occurs; and so E(F ∪ G) occurs. Hence,
E F ∪ E G ⊂ E(F ∪ G)
which together with the reverse inequality proves the result.
7. If (E ∪ F)c occurs, then E ∪ F does not occur, and so E does not occur (and so E c
does); F does not occur (and so F c does) and thus E c and F c both occur. Hence,
(E ∪ F)c ⊂ E c F c
If E c F c occurs, then E c occurs (and so E does not), and F c occurs (and so F does
not). Hence, neither E or F occurs and thus (E ∪ F)c does. Thus,
E c F c ⊂ (E ∪ F)c
and the result follows.
8. 1 ≥ P(E ∪ F) = P(E) + P(F) − P(E F)
9. F = E ∪ F E c , implying since E and F E c are disjoint that P(F) = P(E) +
P(F E)c .
10. Either by induction or use
n
∪ E i = E 1 ∪ E 1c E 2 ∪ E 1c E 2c E 3 ∪ · · · ∪ E 1c · · · E n−1
c
En
1

and as each of the terms on the right side are mutually exclusive:
P( ∪ E i ) = P(E 1 ) + P(E 1c E 2 ) + P(E 1c E 2c E 3 ) + · · ·
i
+ P(E 1c · · · E n−1
c
En )
≤ P(E 1 ) + P(E 2 ) + · · · + P(E n ) (why?)

36 , i = 2, . . . , 7
i−1
11. P{sum is i} =
36 ,i = 8, . . . , 12
13−i

12. Either use hint or condition on initial outcome as:

P{E before F}
= P{E before F|initial outcome is E}P(E)
+ P{E before F|initial outcome is F}P(F)
+ P{E before F|initial outcome neither E or F}[1 − P(E) − P(F)]
= 1 · P(E) + 0 · P(F) + P{E before F}
= [1 − P(E) − P(F)]
P(E)
Therefore, P{E before F} = P(E)+P(F)
13. Condition an initial toss


12
P{win} = P{win|throw i}P{throw i}
i=2
Instructor’s Manual to Accompany 3

Now,
P{win|throw i} = P{i before 7}
⎧
⎪
⎪ 0 i = 2, 12
⎪
⎪ i −1
⎪
⎨ i = 3, . . . , 6
= 5+1
⎪
⎪ 1 i = 7, 11
⎪
⎪ 13 − i
⎪
⎩ i = 8, . . . , 10
19 − 1
where above is obtained by using Problems 11 and 12.
P{win} ≈ .49.
∞

14. P{A wins} = P{A wins on (2n + 1)st toss}
n=0
∞
= (1 − P)2n P
n=0
∞

=P [(1 − P)2 ]n
n=0
1
=P
1 − (1 − P)2
P
=
2P − P 2
1
=
2− P
P{B wins} = 1 − P{A wins}
1− P
=
2− P
16. P(E ∪ F) = P(E ∪ F E c )
= P(E) + P(F E c )
since E and F E c are disjoint. Also,
P(E) = P(F E ∪ F E c )
= P(F E) + P(F E c ) by disjointness
Hence,
P(E ∪ F) = P(E) + P(F) − P(E F)
17. Prob{end} = 1 − Prob{continue}
= 1 − P({H, H, H } ∪ {T, T, T })
= 1 − [Prob(H, H, H ) + Prob(T, T, T )].
4 Introduction to Probability Models

 
1 1 1 1 1 1
Fair coin: Prob{end} = 1 − · · + · ·
2 2 2 2 2 2
3
=
4  
1 1 1 3 3 3
Biased coin:P{end} = 1 − · · + · ·
4 4 4 4 4 4
9
=
16
18. Let B = event both are girls; E = event oldest is girl; L = event at least one is a girl.
P(B E) P(B) 1/4 1
(a) P(B|E) = = = =
P(E) P(E) 1/2 2
1 3
(b) P(L) = 1 − P(no girls) = 1 − = ,
4 4
P(B L) P(B) 1/4 1
P(B|L) = = = =
P(L) P(L) 3/4 3
19. E = event at least 1 six P(E)
number of ways to get E 11
= =
number of samples pts 36
D = event two faces are different P(D)
= 1 − Prob(two faces the same)
6 5 P(E D) 10/36 1
=1− = P(E|D) = = =
36 6 P(D) 5/6 3
20. Let E = event same number on exactly two of the dice; S = event all three numbers
are the same; D = event all three numbers are different. These three events are
mutually exclusive and define the whole sample space. Thus, 1 = P(D) + P(S) +
P(E), P(S) = 6/216 = 1/36; for D have six possible values for first die, five for
second, and four for third.
∴ Number of ways to get D = 6 · 5 · 4 = 120.
P(D) = 120/216 = 20/36
∴ P(E) = 1 − P(D) − P(S)
20 1 5
=1− − =
36 36 12
21. Let C = event person is color blind.
P(C|Male)P(Male)
P(Male|C) =
P(C|MaleP(Male) + P(C|Female)P(Female)
.05 × .5
=
.05 × .5 + .0025 × .5
2500 20
= =
2625 21
Instructor’s Manual to Accompany 5

22. Let trial 1 consist of the first two points; trial 2 the next two points, and so on. The
probability that each player wins one point in a trial is 2 p(1 − p). Now a total of
2n points are played if the first (a − 1) trials all result in each player winning one
of the points in that trial and the nth trial results in one of the players winning both
points. By independence, we obtain

P{2n points are needed}

= (2 p(1 − p))n−1 ( p 2 + (1 − p)2 ), n ≥ 1

The probability that A wins on trial n is (2 p(1 − p))n−1 p 2 and so

∞

P{A wins} = p 2
(2 p(1 − p))n−1
n=1
p2
=
1 − 2 p(1 − p)

23. P(E 1 )P(E 2 |E 1 )P(E 3 |E 1 E 2 ) . . . P(E n |E 1 . . . E n−1 )

P(E 1 E 2 ) P(E 1 E 2 E 3 ) P(E 1 . . . E n )
= P(E 1 ) ...
P(E 1 ) P(E 1 E 2 ) P(E 1 . . . E n−1 )
= P(E 1 . . . E n )

24. Let a signify a vote for A and b one for B.

(a) P2,1 = P{a, a, b} = 1/3
(b) P3,1 = P{a, a} = (3/4)(2/3) = 1/2
(c) P3,2 = P{a, a, a} + P{a, a, b, a}
= (3/5)(2/4)[1/3 + (2/3)(1/2)] = 1/5

(d) P4,1 = P{a, a} = (4/5)(3/4) = 3/5

(e) P4,2 = P{a, a, a} + P{a, a, b, a}
= (4/6)(3/5)[2/4 + (2/4)(2/3)] = 1/3

(f) P4,3 = P{always ahead|a, a}(4/7)(3/6)

= (2/7)[1 − P{a, a, a, b, b, b|a, a}
− P{a, a, b, b|a, a} − P{a, a, b, a, b, b|a, a}]
= (2/7)[1 − (2/5)(3/4)(2/3)(1/2)
− (3/5)(2/4) − (3/5)(2/4)(2/3)(1/2)]
= 1/7

(g) P5,1 = P{a, a} = (5/6)(4/5) = 2/3

(h) P5,2 = P{a, a, a} + P{a, a, b, a}
= (5/7)(4/6)[(3/5) + (2/5)(3/4)] = 3/7

By the same reasoning we have

6 Introduction to Probability Models

(i) P5,3 = 1/4

(j) P5,4 = 1/9
(k) In all the cases above, Pn,m = n−n
n+n
25. (a) P{ pair } = P{second card is same denomination as first}
= 3/51
(b) P{pair|different suits}
P{pair, different suits}
=
P{different suits}
= P{pair}/P{different suits}
3/51
= = 1/13
39/51
4 48 52 39.38.37
26. P(E 1 ) = =
1 12 13 51.50.49
3 36 39 26.25
P(E 2 |E 1 ) = =
1 12 13 38.37
2 24 26
P(E 3 |E 1 E 2 ) = = 13/25
1 12 13
P(E 4 |E 1 E 2 E 3 ) = 1
39.26.13
P(E 1 E 2 E 3 E 4 ) =
51.50.49
27. P(E 1 ) = 1
P(E 2 |E 1 ) = 39/51, since 12 cards are in the ace of spades pile and 39 are not.
P(E 3 |E 1 E 2 ) = 26/50, since 24 cards are in the piles of the two aces and 26 are in
the other two piles.
P(E 4 |E 1 E 2 E 3 ) = 13/49
So
P{each pile has an ace} = (39/51)(26/50)(13/49)
28. Yes. P(A|B) > P(A) is equivalent to P(AB) > P(A)P(B), which is equivalent
to P(B|A) > P(B).
29. (a) P(E|F) = 0
(b) P(E|F) = P(E F)/P(F) = P(E)/P(F) ≥ P(E) = .6
(c) P(E|F) = P(E F)/P(F) = P(F)/P(F) = 1
P{George, not Bill}
30. (a) P{George|exactly 1 hit} =
P{exactly 1}
P{G, not B}
=
P{G, not B} + P{B, not G)}
(.4)(.3)
=
(.4)(.3) + (.7)(.6)
= 2/9
Instructor’s Manual to Accompany 7

(b) P{G|hit} = P{G, hit}/P{hit}

= P{G}/P{hit} = .4/[1 − (.3)(.6)]
= 20/41

31. Let S = event sum of dice is 7; F = event first die is 6.

1 1 P(F|S)
P(S) = P(F S) = P(F|S) =
6 36 P(S)
1/36 1
= =
1/6 6

32. Let E i = event person i selects own hat. P (no one selects own hat)

= 1 − P(E 1 ∪ E 2 ∪ · · · ∪ E n )
 
=1− P(Ei 1 ) − P(Ei 1 Ei 2 ) + · · ·
i1 i 1 <i 2

+ (−1) P(E 1 E 2 E n )
n+1

 
=1− P(Ei 1 ) − P(Ei 1 Ei 2 )
i1 i 1 <i 2

− P(Ei 1 Ei 2 Ei 3 ) + · · ·
i 1 <i 2 <i 3
+ (−1) P(E 1 E 2 E n )
n

Let k ∈ {1, 2, . . . , n}. P(Ei 1 E I2 Ei k ) = number of ways k specific men can select
own hats ÷ total number  of ways hats can be arranged = (n − k)!/n!. Number of
terms in summation i1 <i2 <···<ik = number of ways to choose k variables out of n
 
n
variables = = n!/k!(n − k)!.
k
Thus,

P(Ei 1 Ei 2 · · · Ei k )
i 1 <···<i k
 (n − k)!
=
n!
i 1 <···<i k
 
n (n − k)! 1
= =
k n! k!
∴ P(no one selects own hat)
1 1 1 1
=1− + − + · · · + (−1)n
1! 2! 3! n!
1 1 1
= − + · · · + (−1)n
2! 3! n!
8 Introduction to Probability Models

33. Let S = event student is sophomore; F = event student is freshman; B = event student
is boy; G = event student is girl. Let x = number of sophomore girls; total number
of students = 16 + x.
10 10 4
P(F) = P(B) = P(F B) =
16 + x 16 + x 16 + x
4 10
= P(F B) = P(F)P(B) =
16 + x 16 + x
10
⇒x =9
16 + x

34. Not a good system. The successive spins are independent and so

P{11th is red|1st 10 black} = P{11th is red}

 
18
=P =
38

35. (a) 1/16

(b) 1/16
(c) 15/16, since the only way in which the pattern H, H, H, H can appear before
the pattern T, H, H, H is if the first four flips all land heads.
36. Let B = event marble is black; Bi = event that box i is chosen. Now

B = B B1 ∪ B B2 P(B) = P(B B1 ) + P(B B2 )

= P(B|B1 )P(B1 ) + P(B|B2 )P(B2 )
1 1 2 1 7
= · + · =
2 2 3 2 12

37. Let W = event marble is white.

P(W |B1 )P(B1 )

P(B1 |W ) =
P(W |B1 )P(B1 ) + P(W |B2 )P(B2 )

2 · 2
1 1 1
3
= = 4
=
1
2 · 2 + 3
1 1
· 1
2
5
12
5

38. Let TW = event transfer is white; TB = event transfer is black; W = event white ball
is drawn from urn 2.

P(W |TW )P(TW )

P(TW |W ) =
P(W |TW )P(TW ) + P(W |TB )P(TB )

7 · 3
2 2 4
4
= = 21
=
2
7 · 3 + 7
2 1
· 1
3
5
21
5
Instructor’s Manual to Accompany 9

39. Let W = event woman resigns; A, B, C are events the person resigning works in
store A, B, C, respectively.
P(W |C)P(C)
P(C|W ) =
P(W |C)P(C) + P(W |B)P(B) + P(W |A)P(A)
.70 × 100
= 225
.70 × 100
225 + .60 × 75
225 + .50 × 50
225
70 140 1
= =
225 225 2
40. (a) F = event fair coin flipped; U = event two-headed coin flipped.

P(H |F)P(F)
P(F|H ) =
P(H |F)P(F) + P(H |U )P(U )
·
1 1 1
1
= 1 12 2 1 = 43 =
·
2 2 + 1 · 2 4
3

(b) P(H H |F)P(F)

P(F|H H ) =
P(H H |F)P(F) + P(H H |U )P(U )
·
1 1 1
1
= 1 14 2 1 = 85 =
·
4 2 + 1 · 2 8
5

(c) P(H H T |F)P(F)

P(F|H H T ) =
P(H H T |F)P(F) + P(H H T |U )P(U )
P(H H T |F)P(F)
= =1
P(H H T |F)P(F) + 0
since the fair coin is the only one that can show tails.
41. Note first that since the rat has black parents and a brown sibling, we know that
both its parents are hybrids with one black and one brown gene (for if either were a
pure black then all their offspring would be black). Hence, both of their offspring’s
genes are equally likely to be either black or brown.
P(2 black genes)
(a) P(2 black genes|at least one black gene) =
P(at least one black gene)
1/4
= = 1/3
3/4
(b) Using the result from part (a) yields the following:
P(2 black genes)
P(2 black genes|5 black offspring) =
P(5 black offspring)
1/3
=
1(1/3) + (1/2)5 (2/3)
= 16/17
10 Introduction to Probability Models

where P(5 black offspring) was computed by conditioning on whether the rat
had 2 black genes.
42. Let B = event biased coin was flipped; F and U (same as above).
P(H |U )P(U )
P(U |H ) =
P(H |U )P(U ) + P(H |B)P(B) + P(H |F)P(F)
1 · 13 1
4
= = 3
=
1· 3 + 4 · 3 + 2 · 3
1 3 1 1 1 9
12
9

43. Let B be the event that Flo has a blue eyed gene. Using that Jo and Joe both have one
blue-eyed gene yields, upon letting X be the number of blue-eyed genes possessed
by a daughter of theirs, that
1/2
P(B) = P(X = 1|X < 2) = = 2/3
3/4
Hence, with C being the event that Flo’s daughter is blue eyed, we obtain
P(C) = P(C B) = P(B)P(C|B) = 1/3
44. Let W = event white ball selected.
P(W |T )P(T )
P(T |W ) =
P(W |T )P(T ) + P(W |H )P(H )
·
1 1
12
= 1 1 5 25 1 =
5 · 2 + 12 · 2
37

45. Let Bi = event ith ball is black; Ri = event ith ball is red.
P(R2 |B1 )P(B1 )
P(B1 |R2 ) =
P(R2 |B1 )P(B1 ) + P(R2 |R1 )P(R1 )
b+r +c · b+r
r b
= r +c
b+r +c · b+r + b+r +c ·
r b r
b+r
rb
=
r b + (r + c)r
b
=
b+r +c
46. Let X (=B or =C) denote the jailer’s answer to prisoner A. Now for instance,
P{A to be executed|X = B}
P{A to be executed, X = B}
=
P{X = B}
P{A to be executed}P{X = B|A to be executed}
=
P{X = B}
(1/3)P{X = B|A to be executed}
= .
1/2
 Instructor’s Manual to Accompany 11

Now it is reasonable to suppose that if A is to be executed, then the jailer is equally

likely to answer either B or C. That is,
1
ssm
P{X = B|A to be executed} =
2
and so,
mtt
1
P{A to be executed|X = B} =
3
Similarly,
bb99
1
P{A to be executed|X = C} =
3
and thus the jailer’s reasoning is invalid. (It is true that if the jailer were to answer
B, then A knows that the condemned is either himself or C, but it is twice as likely
to be C.)
88@

47. 1. 0 ≤ P(A|B) ≤ 1
P(S B) P(B)
2. P(S|B) = = =1
P(B) P(B)
@

3. For disjoint events A and D

P((A ∪ D)B)
P(A ∪ D|B) =
P(B)
ggm

P(AB ∪ D B)
=
P(B)
P(AB) + P(D B)
=
maa

P(B)
= P(A|B) + P(D|B)

Direct verification is as follows:

P(A|BC)P(C|B) + P(A|BC c )P(C c |B)

iill..cc

P(ABC) P(BC) P(ABC c ) P(BC c )

= +
P(BC) P(B) P(BC c ) P(B)
P(ABC) P(ABC )c
= +
P(B) P(B)
P(AB)
=
oom

P(B)
= P(A|B)

Chapter 2
m

   
7 10 14
1. P{X = 0} = =
2 2 30

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