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20141007_metschool

The document provides an overview of hurricanes, including their classification, formation, and the importance of forecasting. It highlights that different regions use various names for tropical cyclones and discusses the peak hurricane season, particularly in South Florida. The document emphasizes the hazards associated with hurricanes, particularly storm surge, which causes the most damage and fatalities.

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10 views40 pages

20141007_metschool

The document provides an overview of hurricanes, including their classification, formation, and the importance of forecasting. It highlights that different regions use various names for tropical cyclones and discusses the peak hurricane season, particularly in South Florida. The document emphasizes the hazards associated with hurricanes, particularly storm surge, which causes the most damage and fatalities.

Uploaded by

xmnmnsu
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Understanding Hurricanes

Kieran Bhatia
• Why do we care?

• What are they?

• When should we be ready?

• Why aren’t forecasts perfect?

• If a hurricane makes landfall, what should we


expect?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unV5KcSrY-I
• Tropical cyclones have different names,
depending on their location.
– In the Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Pacific Ocean,
weaker systems are called tropical storms and the
stronger ones are called hurricanes.
– In the Northwest Pacific Ocean, weaker systems
are also called tropical storms, but the stronger
ones are called typhoons.
– In the Southwest Pacific and Indian Oceans, they
are simply called cyclones.
Typhoons

Hurricanes

Cyclones
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Arthur Ana Alex Arlene Alberto Andrea
Bertha Bill Bonnie Bret Beryl Barry
Cristobal Claudette Colin Cindy Chris Chantal
Dolly Danny Danielle Don Debby Dorian
Edouard Erika Earl Emily Ernesto Erin
Fay Fred Fiona Franklin Florence Fernand
Gonzalo Grace Gaston Gert Gordon Gabrielle
Hanna Henri Hermine Harvey Helene Humberto
Isaias Ida Ian Irma Isaac Imelda
Josephine Joaquin Julia Jose Joyce Jerry
Kyle Kate Karl Katia Kirk Karen
Laura Larry Lisa Lee Leslie Lorenzo
Marco Mindy Matthew Maria Michael Melissa
Nana Nicholas Nicole Nate Nadine Nestor
Omar Odette Otto Ophelia Oscar Olga
Paulette Peter Paula Philippe Patty Pablo
Rene Rose Richard Rina Rafael Rebekah
Sally Sam Shary Sean Sara Sebastien
Teddy Teresa Tobias Tammy Tony Tanya
Vicky Victor Virginie Vince Valerie Van
Wilfred Wanda Walter Whitney William Wendy
• Counter-clockwise rotating thunderstorms surround a
massive low pressure system

• Driven by sea water evaporating, rising, and releasing


heat

• An area of strong winds and heavy rain

• Only classified by surface wind speed… Saffir-Simpson


Scale:
– Tropical Depression (numbered but not named)
– Tropical Storm (named... 40mph+, better organized)
– Hurricane (named... 74mph+, assigned a category 1-5)
• Warm deep ocean water
• Moist air throughout the atmosphere
• At least 5o north of the equator
• Low vertical shear
Typical eye diameter ~20 miles

Typical hurricane diameter ~300-400 miles

* The center can have an eye, characterized by calm winds and sometimes clear skies.
* The eye is then surrounded by a wall of intense thunderstorms and an area typically with
the strongest winds: the eyewall.
* Outside of the eyewall, there are spiral rainbands... these can also be quite strong
and contain damaging winds, heavy rain, and even tornadoes.
Day 0, Disturbance Day 1, 35mph Depression Day 2, 46mph Tropical Storm

Day 3, 63mph Tropical Storm Day 4, 92mph Hurricane Day 5, 127mph Hurricane

Day 6, 150mph Hurricane Day 7, 144mph Hurricane Day 8, 155mph Hurricane


• Yes, the bigger a storm is, the more area it will affect with rain,
wind, and storm surge, but...
• A larger storm is not necessarily a stronger storm and vice versa.
YOU ARE
HERE
Hurricanes affecting South Florida since 1851
What Month Has Had Most
Hurricane Strikes in South FL?
• A) August
• B) October
• C) September
• D) June

Since 1851, 23 hurricanes have struck South


Florida in October, compared to 17 in September
13 in August, 2 in July, and 2 in June
● South Florida is one of the most frequently hit sections of
the entire US coastline
● Average of one hurricane per 3 years and one major
hurricane every 5.2 years

Total Number of
Strikes Per County,
1900-2010
1) Making Measurements
Variety of instruments define initial conditions (starting point for forecasts)

2) Model Predictions
Weather models on the world’s fastest super computers predict the future state of the
weather based on current information and approximate equations
3) “Ensemble” of Forecasts
Different equations, initial conditions, and modelling techniques lead to a variety of
predictions

4) The Official Forecast


Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center examine computer model forecasts and
issue the official forecast based on what they deem as the most likely scenario
• The “forecast cone” or “cone of uncertainty”
predicts the path of the storm center.
• It is not an impacts cone!
• For two out of three 24-hour forecasts, the center
of the hurricane will differ from its predicted
track by less than 70 miles, at 48 hours by less
than 95 miles, etc.
• Using this information, we can draw a circle
for the possible location of the center of the
hurricane
• Outline the circles to complete the cone

70 miles
• Track forecasts inherently contain uncertainty...
more
and forecasts further out in time have _____
uncertainty.

• As track forecasts improve, the size of the cone


decreases
__________.

• The center of the storm should track outside of


1/3 of the time.
the cone ____

• The forecast cone ______


is not an impacts cone!
• Storm Surge
• Wind
• Rain
• Tornadoes
• Waves/Rip Currents
• Nearly 70% of landfalling hurricanes cause
at least 1 tornado.
• These tornadoes most often occur in
thunderstorms in rainbands away from the center
of the hurricane.
• The #1 cause of deaths in hurricanes

• Storm surge is produced by water being


pushed toward the shore by the storm winds
Hurricane Katrina (2005): New Orleans
• Hurricanes and tropical storms (tropical cyclones) are
named differently in different oceans and based on their
wind speeds

• August through October is the peak of hurricane season for


the U.S. but September and October are South Florida’s
busiest months

• The “cone of uncertainty” shows where the center of the


storm will go 2/3 of time but the storm’s destruction can
extend far beyond the cone (even if the track forecast is
correct)

• Tropical cyclones have a variety of hazards but storm surge


is responsible for the most damage and deaths

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