UBS - Bond Basics
UBS - Bond Basics
Contents
Bond Examples Yield to Maturity Price Risk Versus Reinvestment Risk Duration Risk Measures
83
Bond Examples
Joe Troccolo, Financial Markets Education
What is a Bond?
Security that represents a loan Way for corporations, banks, governments and others to borrow
money
The borrower (issuer) is obligated to pay interest to the investors The borrower is also obligated to pay back the amount borrowed Important aspects of a bond:
85
Bond Examples
Bonds
....
86
Example
XYV corporation wants to borrow EUR100 million for 5 years XYV issues (sells) a bond that promises to pay:
EUR 8 million in interest on 15 February every year for 5 years EUR 100 million on 15 February 5 years from now
When the bond is first sold the investors pay (collectively) EUR 100
million for the bond
Each investor only buys a part of the bond Later the bond may trade for more or less than when it was issued
87
Bond Terminology
Face Value Price Coupon Rate Coupon Period Coupon Date Maturity
88
Example
US Treasury 7 1/4s May 16 Coupon is semiannual May 15, November 15 Maturity May 15, 2016 Bond was issued in May 1986 Price: 114 18/32 on October 20
89
Invoice Price
Bond buyer pays price plus accrued interest Price + Accrued interest : Dirty price (Invoice price)
90
91
Coupon interval: 184 actual days Time from last coupon: 158 actual days Accrued interest 7.25 x 158 = 3.1128 2 184 Invoice Price: 114.5625 3.1128 117.6753
92
Eurobond
Province of Quebec 5.25% 7 July 2004 Currency 500 Million SEK Price: 99.7500 on 16 October Coupon is annual Paid 30/360
93
94
Summary
Bonds are issued by corporations and governments to borrow
money
To an investor a bond is a series of promised cash flows The defining characteristics of a bond are:
The buyer of a bond pays the market price plus accrued interest
95
Yield To Maturity
1000 in one year 1000 in two years 1000 in three years 1000 in four years 11000 in five years
10000 for the bond 9000 for the bond 11000 for the bond
97
We can observe the market price and we know the cash flows so
there must be an interest rate that equates them.
98
Yield To Maturity
The single discount rate that equates the net present value of the
bonds cash flows to its price.
How do we calculate the price given the yield? How do we calculate the yield given the price?
99
100
101
9.09
8.26
7.51
6.83
68.30
102
Price > 100: the bond is a premium bond or is trading at a premium Price < 100: the bond is a discount bond or is trading at a discount
103
Example
A bond with 5 years to maturity has a coupon of 7% The current level of rates is 10% What is the bonds price? We need to discount the cash flows at 10%
104
6.36
5.79
5.26
4.78
66.44
105
Example
A 3 year bond has a coupon of 6%, paid semi-annually Current interest rates are 5% We need to discount the cash flows using a 5% semi-annual rate.
106
Premium
109
If a 4-year 10% annual coupon bond is priced at 105, what is its yield? Yield 9% 8% 8.5% 8.45% 8.47% Yield = 8.4744%
110
Summary
A bond is a series of cash flows We can observe cash flows and we can observe the price the bond
is trading for in the market
The yield to maturity is the interest rate that equates the price of
the bond with the sum of the present values of the cash flows
The coupon rate is an obligation of the issuer The market price is what the market will pay The yield to maturity is a mathematical concept not a promise!
111
9 All yields are 8% 8 7 time to maturity Buy 20 year annual 8% bond for par.
113
Scenario 1
114
Scenario 2
Yields move to 7% 9 8 Bond Price = 110.59 7 Gain = 10.59% This is price risk time to maturity
115
Scenario 1 (again)
Yields move to 9% 9 8 7 time to maturity We hold the bond to maturity (20 years) and reinvest all the coupons at 9% Return = 8.48%
116
Scenario 2 (again)
9 8 Yields move to 7% 7 time to maturity We hold the bond to maturity and reinvest all the coupons at 7% Return = 7.54% This is reinvestment risk
117
Holding Period
Holding Period = amount of time the investment is held. During the period, proceeds are reinvested. At the end the investment is sold at the current yield or matures.
Reinvestment Rate 7 8 9 18.34% 8.00% -0.95% 9.18% 8.08% 7.54% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 6.93% 7.96% 8.48%
118
Duration
If the bond is held for 10 years, its holding period return will be
about 8%, under all three scenarios
10 years is the bonds duration Duration is the point where price risk = reinvestment risk Bond managers attempt to immunise their portfolios by
adjusting the duration
shorten duration
lengthen duration
Risk Measures
Modified Duration Duration and Delta Convexity and Gamma
121
Change in P = dP
Delta
Price Delta = the amount the bonds price changes if the yield changes by 1 basis point = price value of a basis point
123
124
Calculating Delta
1 1 dP D =P dr 1+ r
D mod 1 = D 1+ r
D = Macauleys Duration
dP = P D mod dr
125
126
127
dP dP dr dr Yield
128
Gamma
Since = - P Dmod
An increase in yields lowers both Price and Duration. The change in (due to yield changes) is called gamma. = change in delta (due to yield changes)
129
130
131
Summary
Fixed Income investments are exposed to risks A primary risk is the change in value due to changes in the level of
interest rates
The price value of a basis point measures how much the value will
change for a one basis point change in yield
pvbp is called a bonds delta The change in delta is called gamma and measures how the price
risk of the bond changes as yields change parallel fashion
All of these risk measures have assumed that yields move in a More sophisticated methods use models of the yield curve
132