Urban Transportation Planning

Module 2: Travel Demand Modeling

Trends, Overall Planning process, Long term Vs. Short-term
planning, Types of Plans, Master Plans, Demand Function,
Independent Variables, Travel Attributes, Assumptions in
Demand Estimation, Sequential, and Simultaneous Approaches,
Aggregate and Disaggregate Techniques, Tour based Models
and Activity Based Models, UTPS Approach.

CSRK Prasad
 Trends & Overall Planning Process

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 2

Trends in Transportation Planning
• Car oriented development - Transit Oriented
Development
• Homogeneous Land Use – Mixed Land Use – Multi
Layered
• Multimodal Transportation Planning
• Integration of Land Use and Transportation Planning
• Sustainable Urban Transportation
• Smart Cities – Smart Sustainable Cities
9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 3
Transportation Planning
• Transportation Planning is a systematic technique of
understanding traffic and transportation
characteristics, with the goals of producing safe,
efficient and convenient system, which will meet the
current and future needs and preferences of the
community and shall also promote social and
economic development

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 4

Transportation Land Use Interaction
• Land use
creates trips
• Transportation
facilities create
land use

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 5

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 6
Urban Transportation Planning Process

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 7

 Transportation
Planning Process

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 8

Holistic Approach

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 9

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 10
 Long term Vs Short term Planning

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 11

Transportation Studies – all areas with population over 50,000

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 12

The Long-Range Transportation Plan

• Describes vision for the region, and policies,

operational strategies, and projects to achieve it
• Covers at least the next 20 years
• Leads to an “intermodal” system
• Reflects public involvement
• Contains a financial plan and is fiscally constrained
• Updated every 4-5 years

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 13

Transportation System Management
• Actions to ensure the efficient use of existing
road space
• Actions to reduce vehicle use in congested areas
• Actions to improve transit service
• Actions to improve internal transit management
efficiency

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 14

Transportation System Management
• Metropolitan traffic management centers
• Traffic signal coordination
• Incident management programs
• Preferential treatment for transit/rideshares
• Special event traffic management
• Emergency management strategies
• Pricing of transportation services
• ITS applications for transit
• Traveler Information
9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 15
Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)

• A staged, multi-year, intermodal program of

prioritized transportation initiatives consistent
with Plan
• Shows annual activity for a 3-year period

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 16

 Levels of Planning

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 17

Levels of Transport Planning
• Planning activity occurs in an ordered hierarchies with
different issues being addressed at the various levels of
planning
• The general characteristics and decision making differ at each
level of urban transport planning
• Levels of Transportation Planning
• Conceptual Plan
• Outline Plan
• Master Plan
• Statutory or Advisory Plan
• Detailed Development Plan

15-09-2021 CSRK Prasad 18

Conceptual Plan
Purpose Establishment of plan objectives for the desirable form &
function of the region and development of plan with most
viable application of these objectives

Plan Period 30-40 years / one intermediate horizon of 20 years

Study Area System Sectors with a future population of 200,000 – 500,000
Basic Data Analysis Prepare indicative forecasts of major concentrations of
land use, population, employment, etc., based on broad
understanding of existing conditions

Plan Details General types of land use shown in diagrammatic form

Travel Demand Indicative estimates of future travel demand by major
Forecasts
15-09-2021 transport corridor
CSRK Prasad 19
Conceptual Plan
Economic Studies Consideration of appropriate economic principles
compatible with regional scale
Future Route Locations Described as transport corridors in which major highway
& Characteristics and public transport routes could be located

Right of way definition Not applicable

Cost Estimates Not applicable

15-09-2021 CSRK Prasad 20

Outline Plan
Purpose Establishment of plan objectives at the sector scale from
the regional objectives and development of plan with
most viable application of these objectives
Plan Period 20 years & at least one horizon year of 10 years
Study Area System Districts with a future population of 50,000 – 200,000

Basic Data Analysis Simplified forecasts of land use, population and

employment and other relevant factors by district
Plan Details Major land use areas outlined using generalized land use
classifications
Travel Demand Estimates of future travel demand on major transport
Forecasts routes using simplified transport models in conjunction
15-09-2021
with the land use models
CSRK Prasad 21
Outline Plan
Economic Studies Benefits and cost of major components of government
investment
Future Route Locations Based on location studies of major transport routes
& Characteristics

Right of way definition Broad land reservations defined giving consideration to

major land
Cost Estimates Cost/route km basis

15-09-2021 CSRK Prasad 22

Master Plan
Purpose Establishment of plan objectives at the district scale from
the sector objectives and development of plan with most
viable application of these objectives
Plan Period 20 years & at least one intermediate horizon of 5 years
Study Area System Neighborhood subdivided into homogeneous zones of
5,000 – 10,000
Basic Data Analysis Comprehensive forecasts of zonal parameters including
population, employment, etc.
Plan Details Major land use areas defined using generalized land use
zones
Travel Demand Estimates of future travel demand on all significant routes
Forecasts
15-09-2021 using comprehensive
CSRK Prasad transport models in conjunction
23
Master Plan
Economic Studies Benefits and costs of major land use considering
government and private investments
Future Route Locations Based on functional design studies of major transport
& Characteristics routes and locational studies of minor facilities
Right of way definition Property affected generally defined as a basis for land
reservations
Cost Estimates General unit cost per area, volume and length basis for
major elements

15-09-2021 CSRK Prasad 24

Statutory Plan
Purpose Establishment of plan objectives at the local scale from
district objectives and development of local plan with
most viable application of these objectives

Plan Period 10 years and intermediate programming period of 1 year

Study Area System Zones, street blocks and / or major property subdivisions

Basic Data Analysis Detailed special forecasts depending on problem

Plan Details Detailed zoning and preliminary design proposals

Travel Demand Estimates from preceding planning stage supplemented by

Forecasts detailed travel analysis for specific design problems
15-09-2021 CSRK Prasad 25
Statutory Plan
Economic Studies Benefits and costs of detailed zoning and design
alternatives
Future Route Locations Based on preliminary design studies which then provide
& Characteristics basis for preparing implementation plans

Right of way definition Property acquisition lines defined to nearest 5-10 ft.

Cost Estimates Detailed unit cost basis major elements

15-09-2021 CSRK Prasad 26

Detailed Plan
Purpose Formulation of detailed land use control plans,
development and redevelopment plans, design and
implementation schemes
Plan Period 1 year and up depending on specific proposal

Study Area System Street blocks and detailed allotment subdivisions

Basic Data Analysis No activities

Plan Details Detailed plans

Travel Demand Additional forecasts not required

Forecasts
15-09-2021 CSRK Prasad 27
Detailed Plan
Economic Studies Benefits and cost of specific development proposals

Future Route Locations Based on implementation plans for specific proposals

& Characteristics

Right of way definition Accurate definition of property acquisition lines for

specific proposals
Cost Estimates Detailed cost estimates for specific proposals

15-09-2021 CSRK Prasad 28

Hierarchical Levels of UTP (Smith)
Conceptual Plan The systems approach in the
transportation planning
provides an appropriate frame
Outline Plan work for organizing the activity
involved within each level of
planning
Master Plans

Statutory or Advisory Plans

Detailed Development Plans

Interrelationship
15-09-2021
of different levelsCSRK
ofPrasad
Planning Studies 32
Learning Resources
• http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/megaregions/reports/megaregio
ns_report_2011/megaregions03.cfm
• http://www.planning.dot.gov/documents/briefingbook/bbook.htm
• https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/supplydem
andrel.html
• David Banister, Transport Planning, Second Edition, SPON Press, 2002.
Chapter 2
• BG Hutchinson, Principles of Urban Transportation Systems Planning,
McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1985

9/15/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 33

 Thank You for your Attention!

Feel Free to Contact:

[email protected]; [email protected]
9440 347 348; 9515 890 908 (M)

15 September 2021 CSRK Prasad, NIT Warangal 34

 Urban Transportation Planning
Module 2: Travel Demand Modeling
Trends, Overall Planning process, Long term Vs. Short-term
planning, Types of Plans, Master Plans, Demand Function,
Independent Variables, Travel Attributes, Assumptions in
Demand Estimation, Sequential, and Simultaneous Approaches,
Aggregate and Disaggregate Techniques, Tour based Models
and Activity Based Models, UTPS Approach.

CSRK Prasad
Flow of Presentation

✓Objectives of UTP
✓Basis of Transportation Planning Process
✓Modelling Framework

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 2

 Objectives of UTP

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 3

Objectives of UTP

• To develop orderly programs under which an

integrated transportation system can be fully
developed and its operation and management
optimised.
• This includes the highway and mass transit
networks and their terminal facilities

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 4

Objectives of UTP
1. To have the most suitable type of transport system out of the
available funds
2. To promote economic activity and efficiency through reduced costs
of transport and optimal development
3. To develop an integrated road transport system
4. To know how to and when to improve old roads or construct new
ones to meet future needs
5. To establish priorities of construction and maintenance of roads
6. To optimise expenditures and revenues to be collected through
taxation etc. ensuring that benefits and costs of road transport
programs fall equitably on the community
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 5
Objectives of UTP
7. To develop phased programmes or stage construction
techniques for promotion of urban and regional
development
8. To reduce the road accidents
9. To coordinate the total transport development by an
emphasis on inter-modal concept
10.To satisfy the current and future travel demand
11.To preserve and improve the environment

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 6

Basis of Transportation Planning Process

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 7

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 8
Basis of Transportation Planning Process
Principles and Assumptions
1. Travel Patterns are tangible, stable and
predictable
2. Movement demands are directly related to the
distribution and intensity of land uses, which are
capable of being accurately determined for
some future date
3. Decisive relationships exist between all modes
of transport and that the future role of a
particular mode cannot be determined without
giving consideration to all other modes
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 9
Basis of Transportation Planning Process
Principles and Assumptions
4. The transportation system influences the
development of an area, as well as serving that
area
5. Areas of continuous urbanisation require a region
wide consideration of the transport situation
6. The transportation study is an integral part of the
overall planning process, and cannot adequately be
considered in isolation
7. The planning process is continuous, and requires
constant up-dating, validating and amendment

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 10

Urban Structure as an Enabler of Sustainable Travel

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 11

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 12
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 13
 Modelling Framework

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 14

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 15
Hierarchy of Travel Choices

Travel Decision

Trip No Trip
Trip Frequency: How many?

Peak Off Peak

Time of the Day: When?
Time Time

D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3
Destination: Where?

M1 M2 M1 M2 M1 M2 M1 M2 M1 M2 M1 M2
Mode: How?
R1 R2 R3 R1 R2 R3 R1 R2 R3 R1 R2 R3
Route: Which route?
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 18
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 19
Discrete Time Intervals
❖Day as a unit
❖Two Units: 8AM to 8PM & 8PM to 8AM
❖Three Units: 6AM to 2PM; 2PM to 10PM; & 10PM to
6AM
❖Four Units: 6AM to 12 Noon; 12 Noon to 6PM; 6PM
to 12 Mid night; & 12 Mid night to 6AM
❖Peak & Off-peak Periods: 8AM to 11AM; 4PM to
7PM; 11AM to 4PM
❖Every Hour of the Day

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 20

Individuals Defined by Socioeconomic Variables
➢Gender: Male; Female
➢Marital Status: Married and Unmarried
➢Age: 5 to 15 Years; 15 to 25 Years; 25 to 45 Years; 45
to 65 Years; 65+
➢Income: Low, Medium and High income
➢Employment: Student; Pvt. Empl; Govt. Empl;
Unemployed; House wives; Old aged
➢Vehicle Ownership: Cycle; 2W; Car

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 21

Divide Space into Zones
• Districts – Zones - Sub Zones

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 22

Categories of Activities
• Work
• Education
• Shopping
• Recreation
• Social
• Medical, etc

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 23

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 24
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 25
Learning Resources
• http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/megaregions/reports/megaregio
ns_report_2011/megaregions03.cfm
• http://www.planning.dot.gov/documents/briefingbook/bbook.htm
• https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/supplydem
andrel.html
• David Banister, Transport Planning, Second Edition, SPON Press,
2002. Chapter 2
• http://www.plan4sustainabletravel.org/
• http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/civil-and-environmental-engineering/1-
201j-transportation-systems-analysis-demand-and-economics-fall-
2008/lecture-notes/MIT1_201JF08_lec05.pdf
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 26
 Thank You for your Attention!

Feel Free to Contact:

[email protected]; [email protected]
9440 347 348; 9515 890 908 (M)

21 September 2021 CSRK Prasad, NIT Warangal 27

 Urban Transportation Planning
Module 2: Travel Demand Modeling
Trends, Overall Planning process, Long term Vs. Short-term
planning, Types of Plans, Master Plans, Demand Function,
Independent Variables, Travel Attributes, Assumptions in
Demand Estimation, Sequential, and Simultaneous Approaches,
Aggregate and Disaggregate Techniques, Tour based Models
and Activity Based Models, UTPS Approach.

CSRK Prasad
Flow of Presentation

✓Transport Planning Problem & Urban Mobility

✓Travel Demand: Attributes – Explanatory Variables
✓Assumptions in Travel Demand Estimation
✓Approaches in Travel Demand Estimation

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 2

Transport Planning Problem & Urban
Mobility

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 3

Urban Mobility & Its Evolution
• The Walking-Horsecar Era (1800s – 1890s)
• The Electric Streetcar or Transit Era (1890s – 1920s)
• The Automobile Era (1930s – 1950s)
• The Freeway Era (1950s – 2010s)
• The Integrated Mobility Era (2010s onward)

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 5

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 6
A Taxonomy of Urban Mobilities

• Urban mobility is either

• Obligatory when it is linked to scheduled activities (such
as home-to-work trips), or
• Voluntary when those generating it are free to decide of
their scheduling (such as leisure).

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 7

A Taxonomy of Urban Mobilities
• Pendulum Movements: These are obligatory movements
involving commuting between locations of residence and
work. They are highly cyclical since they are predictable and
recurring regularly, most of the time a daily occurrence, thus
the term pendulum.
• Professional Movements. These are movements linked to
professional, work-based activities such as meetings, repair,
maintenance, and customer services, dominantly taking
place during work hours.

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 8

A Taxonomy of Urban Mobilities

• Personal Movements. These are voluntary movements

linked to the location of commercial activities, which
includes shopping and recreation.
• Touristic Movements. They involve interactions between
landmarks and amenities such as hotels and restaurants and
tend to be seasonal or occurring at specific moments. Major
sports events such as the World Cup or the Olympics are
important generators of urban movements during their
occurrence.

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 9

 Travel Demand:
Attributes - Explanatory Variables

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 10

Travel Demand
• Total number of trips undertaken for various purposes to different
destinations together with the choice of mode, choice of time of the
day and the choice of route, etc.

• D = Demand function
• L = Level of service vector
• S = Socio-economic vector
• A = Activity System Variables
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 11
Travel Attributes
• Origin of the trip
• Destination of the trip
• Mode of travel
• Route chosen
• Trip Purpose
• Time of the day
• Frequency of trips

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 12

 Si Aj
Lij
i j

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 13

Socio Economic Vector (Si)
• Prosperity of Traveller
• Income, occupation, education status, household,
telephone, mobile, etc
• Stage in Life Cycle
• Age, gender, marital status, dependents
• Mobility / Opportunities for travel
• Vehicle ownership, driving licence, bus stop location,
opportunities
• Location in City
• Distance from CBD
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 14
Level of Service (Lij)
Quality of Transportation System between I & J
• Time
• Cost
• Frequency of Service
• Comfort
• Convenience
• Safety
• Reliability, etc.

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 15

Activity (Aj)
Purpose Activity
• Work
• Education
• Industries
• Commercial
• Medical
• Entertainment
• Shopping

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 16

 S

L D( )
A

1. To develop D(…): initial observations of S, L, A and T

are necessary
2. Once D(…) is known, one can obtain T for any
combination of (S,L,A)

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 17

 Assumptions in
Travel Demand Estimation

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 18

Assumptions in Travel Demand Estimation

• Separability and Sequence of Choices

• Separability – demand function to be structured
in a series of steps and modeled in certain
sequence
• Hierarchy of travel decisions in which certain
travel decisions are made independently of
others

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 19

Assumption 1 (Strongest to Weakest)

1. There is an hierarchy of travel decisions in which

certain travel decisions are made independently of
other decisions.
• The relative valuation of choice attributes common to
two or more travel choices is not necessarily the same in
successive travel choices

Assumption leads to Sequential Models: travel demand is

modeled in sequential steps

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 20

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 21
Assumption 2 (Strongest to Weakest)
2. There is an hierarchy of travel decisions in which
certain travel decisions are made independently of
other decisions.
• However, relative valuation of choice attributes is
consistent at any travel decision

Assumption leads to Sequential Recursive Models: travel

demand is modeled in sequential steps

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 22

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 23
Assumption 3 (Strongest to Weakest)
3. All the attributes of the choice situation confronting
the traveler are considered simultaneously. The
complete trip is one decision.
• The relative valuation of the attributes is constant in any
travel choice in the hierarchy.
Assumption leads to Simultaneous Models: travel
demand is modeled simultaneously
• Direct Demand Models

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 24

 Approaches in
Travel Demand Estimation

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 25

Approaches in Travel Demand Estimation
• Sequential Models: Based on Assumptions 1 & 2 -
travel demand is modeled in sequential steps

• Simultaneous Models: Based on Assumption 3 –travel

demand is modeled simultaneously
• Direct Demand Models

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 26

Travel Demand Modeling Approaches
• Aggregate Demand Models: Estimation of
aggregate behavior of travelers

• Disaggregate Demand Models: Estimation of

behavior of individual traveler.

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 27

Cross Sectional Model Vs. Temporal Model
• Cross Sectional Model: Model developed with
cross sectional data; i.e. one time data

• Temporal Model: Model developed with panel

data; i.e. at different points of time

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 28

Trend Models Vs. Econometric Models

• Trend Models: Model developed with time

series data

• Econometric Models: Models developed with

econometric variables

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 29

Sequential Aggregate Travel Demand Models:
Four Steps?
• (Activity Allocation)
• Trip Generation
• Trip Distribution
• Mode Split
• Traffic Assignment
• (Measures of Effectiveness)
• (Impact Models)
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 31
Evaluation of Travel Demand Models
Feature Aggregate – Aggregate – Disaggregate – Disaggregate -
Sequential Simultaneous Sequential Simultaneous
Application to Widely used Mostly used in Mostly used as MS Engineering as
Transportation Studies Regional studies Models potential method

Demands on Sample Very High Very High Medium Medium

data
Utilisation of data Extremely poor Poor Excellent Excellent

Geographical Very poor Poor Good Good

Transferability
Incorporation of policy Difficult Difficult Policy sensitive Policy sensitive
variables
Responsiveness to new Not possible Possible Possible possible
modes of transportation
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 32
Evaluation of Travel Demand Models
Feature Aggregate – Aggregate – Disaggregate – Disaggregate -
Sequential Simultaneous Sequential Simultaneous
Inferring values Not possible Difficult Possible Possible
Ability to predict Not possible Possible Possible through Possible
travel demand as a interactions
simultaneous
process
Applicability to Not possible Not appropriate Possible Possible
smaller level of
aggregation
Simplicity of concept Not logical Complicated Simple Complicated

Availability of Basically Special Available Not easily

computer available programme to be available
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 33
programme developed
Learning Resources
• http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/megaregions/reports/megaregio
ns_report_2011/megaregions03.cfm
• http://www.planning.dot.gov/documents/briefingbook/bbook.htm
• https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/supplydem
andrel.html
• David Banister, Transport Planning, Second Edition, SPON Press,
2002. Chapter 2

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 34

 Thank You for your Attention!

Feel Free to Contact:

[email protected]; [email protected]
9440 347 348; 9515 890 908 (M)

21 September 2021 CSRK Prasad, NIT Warangal 35

 Urban Transportation Planning
Module 2: Travel Demand Modeling
Trends, Overall Planning process, Long term Vs. Short-term
planning, Types of Plans, Master Plans, Demand Function,
Independent Variables, Travel Attributes, Assumptions in
Demand Estimation, Sequential, and Simultaneous Approaches,
Aggregate and Disaggregate Techniques, Tour based Models
and Activity Based Models, UTPS Approach.

CSRK Prasad
 Travel Demand Forecasting:
UTPS Approach

9/22/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 2

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 3
Travel Demand Forecasting
1. Survey and Analysis Stage
2. Prediction and Plan Formulation Stage
3. An Evaluation Stage

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 4

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 5
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 6
9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 7
 UTPS Approach
Trip Productions Trip Attractions

Ti Tj Trip Generation

Tij Trip Distribution

Tijm Modal Split

Tijmr Traffic Assignment

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 8

Trip Generation
15,000

Trip Productions

Trip Attractions 12,500

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 9

Trip Distribution

i j
4600

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 10

Mode Split / Mode Choice

i j
Walk = 15%, Bicycle=18%,
2W=32%, 3W=13%, Car=5%,
Bus=17%

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 11

Traffic Assignment / Route Choice

Route 1
Route 4

Route 2
i j

Route 3

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 12

Sequential Four-Step Travel Demand Forecasting Process
Trip Based Models: Short Comings

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 14

Weaknesses and limitations of trip-based models
1. Ignorance of travel as a demand derived from activity participation decisions
2. A focus on individual trips, ignoring the spatial and temporal interrelationship
between all trips and activities comprising an individual’s activity pattern
3. Misrepresentation of overall behavior as an outcome of a true choice process,
rather than as defined by a range of complex constraints which delimit (or even
define) choice
4. Inadequate specification of the interrelationships between travel and activity
participation and scheduling, including activity linkages and interpersonal
constraints
5. Misspecification of individual choice sets, resulting from the inability to
establish distinct choice alternatives available to the decision maker in a
constrained environment
6. The construction of models based strictly on the concept of utility
maximization, neglecting substantial evidence relative to alternate decision
strategies involving household dynamics, information levels, choice complexity,
discontinuous specifications, and habit formation

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 15

9/21/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 16
Trip Based Models: Summary
• Trip-based methods do not reflect
a) The linkages between trips and activities
b) The temporal constraints and dependencies of activity
scheduling
c) The underlying activity behavior that generates the trips

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Learning Resources
• http://www.plan4sustainabletravel.org/
• http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/civil-and-environmental-engineering/1-
201j-transportation-systems-analysis-demand-and-economics-fall-
2008/lecture-notes/MIT1_201JF08_lec05.pdf

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 Thank You for your Attention!

Feel Free to Contact:

[email protected]; [email protected]
9440 347 348; 9515 890 908 (M)

21 September 2021 CSRK Prasad, NIT Warangal 21

 Urban Transportation Planning
Module 2: Travel Demand Modeling
Trends, Overall Planning process, Long term Vs. Short-term
planning, Types of Plans, Master Plans, Demand Function,
Independent Variables, Travel Attributes, Assumptions in
Demand Estimation, Sequential, and Simultaneous Approaches,
Aggregate and Disaggregate Techniques, Tour based Models
and Activity Based Models, UTPS Approach.

CSRK Prasad
 Tour Based Models

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 Tour Based Models: Introduction
oTour-based systems were first developed in the late 1970s
and 1980s in the Netherlands (Daly et al., 1983; Gunn et al.,
1987; Hague Consulting Group, 1992; Gunn, 1994), and are
being used extensively there and elsewhere.
oThese models group trips into tours based on the fact that all
travel can be viewed in terms of round-trip journeys based at
the home.
oA tour is assumed to have a primary activity and destination
that is the major motivation for the journey.

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Tour Based Models
oThe tour-based models, unlike the previous models, take account of
the time and space constraints among the trips of the same tour.
oThe tours are generally characterized through the Primary
Destination, defined as the destination in which the most important
activity is made.
oThe better-structured models simulate, in various stages, the tour
generation and frequency, the space distribution (primary and
secondary destination), the tour type and the mode choice (Cascetta,
1998).
oThe daily or weekly travel-pattern demand models take account of
the interactions among the tours made during the reference period;
therefore, they have a more complex formulation.

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Tour Based Models : Limitations
oThe modeling of tour decisions provides an incremental improvement
over trip-based model systems, incorporating an explicit
representation of temporal-spatial constraints among activity stops
within a tour.
oHowever, the tour-based approach lacks a connection among multiple
tours taken in the same day, thereby failing to capture the effects of
inter-tour temporal-spatial constraints.

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 Activity Based Models

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Activity Based Models: Introduction
oThe motivation of the activity approach is that travel decisions are
activity based, and that any understanding of travel behavior is
secondary to a fundamental understanding of activity behavior.
o Travel is one of many attributes of an activity.
oTravel is essential a physical mechanism to access an activity site for
the purpose of participating in some activity.
oThe fundamental tenet of the activity approach is that travel decisions
are driven by a collection of activities that form an agenda for
participation and, as such, cannot be analyzed on an individual trip
basis.

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Characteristics of the Activity-based Approach
1. Travel is derived from the demand for activity participation;
2. Sequences or patterns of behavior, and not individual trips, are the
relevant unit of analysis;
3. Household and other social structures influence travel and activity
behavior;
4. Spatial, temporal, transportation, and interpersonal
interdependencies constrain both activity and travel behavior; and
5. Activity-based approaches reflect the scheduling of activities in
time and space.

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The day activity schedule
oDemand for activity and travel is viewed as a choice among all possible
combinations of activity and travel in the course of a weekday.
oThe model uses a day timeframe because of the day’s primary importance
in regulating activity and travel behavior; people organize their activities in
day sized packages, allowing substantial interactions among within-day
scheduling decisions as they cope with time and space constraints while
attempting to achieve their activity objectives.
oThe day activity schedule consists of a set of tours tied together by an
overarching activity pattern (pattern).
oThe activity pattern extends the linkage beyond that of a tour-based model
to include all the tours that occur in a single day, thereby explicitly
representing the ability of individuals to make inter-tour and at-home vs
on-tour trade-offs.

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The day activity schedule (Contd.)
The activity schedule model framework:
An individual’s multidimensional choice
of a day’s activities and travel consists
of tours interrelated in an activity
pattern.

The activity pattern extends the linkage

beyond that of a tour-based model to
include all the tours that occur in a single
day, thereby explicitly representing the
ability of individuals to make inter-tour
and at-home vs on-tour trade-offs
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The day activity schedule (Contd.)

oIn the model, tour decisions are conditioned, or constrained, by the choice
of activity pattern.
oThis is based on the notion that some decisions about the basic agenda and
pattern of the day’s activities take precedence over details of the travel
decisions.
oThe probability of a particular activity schedule is therefore expressed in
the model as the product of a marginal pattern probability and a
conditional tours probability
p(schedule) = p(pattern)*p(tour/pattern)
owhere
o the pattern probability is the probability of a particular activity pattern and
o the conditional tours probability is the probability of a particular set of tours, given
the choice of pattern.

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The day activity schedule (Contd.)
oAt a minimum, the pattern is characterized by
a) the primary activity, with one alternative being to remain at home for all the
day’s activities
b) the type of tour for the day’s primary activity, including the number,
purpose and sequence of activity stops, and
c) the number and purpose of secondary tours.
oThe tours decision involves the selection of activity location for the
activities in each tour, as well as the time of day and modes of travel.

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The day activity schedule (Contd.)

o Activity Schedule hierarchy.

o Lower tier models are
conditioned by decisions in
higher tiers.

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Activity Based Models : Special Attributes
• The option of not to travel: Activity-based models assume that a
person may avoid travel provided that carrying an activity without
travel is more appealing. This is important in evaluating some policies,
like for example the impact that communication technology has on
travel behavior. Conventional trip-based models and early tour-based
models cannot capture the possible trade-off between activity with
travel and that of without travel.
• The interactions of travel decisions: Unlike conventional trip-based
models new-generation models assume that decisions for travel are
fully or partly (if tour-based) interlinked and not carried out
independently.

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Learning Resources
• http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/civil-and-environmental-engineering/1-201j-transportation-
systems-analysis-demand-and-economics-fall-2008/lecture-
notes/MIT1_201JF08_lec05.pdf
• http://www.civil.ist.utl.pt/~martinez/PDF/MobiCredit/Paper23.pdf
• https://escholarship.org/content/qt86h7f5v0/qt86h7f5v0.pdf?t=lnqs3v

9/27/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 21

 Thank You for your Attention!

Feel Free to Contact:

[email protected]; [email protected]
9440 347 348; 9515 890 908 (M)

9/27/2021 CSRK Prasad NIT Warangal 22