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Agricultural Economics Research Review
Vol. 18 (Conference No.) 2005 pp 135-148

Managing Risk in Agriculture under Drought

Situation in Uttar Pradesh: A Case Study
R.K. Singh1, Anshu Vishwakarma2 and P.K. Singh2

Abstract

From a case study under the village level study (VLS), it has been found
that in the drought agriculture year 2002-03, the farmers of Uttar Pradesh
followed their best choice and own outlook for risk aversion and invariably
preferred those crops and techniques which involved damage control and
low investment and provided insurance against loss. The water harvesting
for irrigation, intercropping, growing of low-value crops, high concentration
for fodder and grain rather than grain alone, and preferential low-use of
monetary inputs are some of the means commonly used by the farmers
during droughts. It has been concluded that rainfall probability analyses
would be a component of agricultural managing/ reducing risk while large
area of the Indo-Gagetic plains is falling in the state. The major weakness
in generating this type of information and analysis is that it provides no
specific information about the upcoming season with which the farmer
must deal. Some suggestions have been given to mitigate risk in agriculture.
Need has been pointed out for preparing a draught vulnerability index for
different districts. It has been realized that the IMD’s monsoon forecast
methodology needs some serious re-thinking. The intensive climate
information /farmer interface intensification of watershed programme;
tighter agriculture risk management, and sustained crop diversification
will have to be considered. It has been suggested that the preparedness
measures can be taken by two different agencies: the assisting agency,
and the drought-prone areas themselves. Drawing on field information
assembled from drought relief performance, state government may develop
a way of drawing inference from experience. A particular activity in drought
situation should be analyzed and assessed by degree of success, with the
region given for the results. These judgments may be recorded and filed in
a retrieval system called ‘lessons learnt’; which could be used as a useful
reference source in deciding such question as what quantities are required

1 Head, 2Senior Research Fellows, Department of Agricultural Economics and Sta-

tistics, C.S. Azad University of Agriculture and Technology, Kanpur - 208 002
(U.P.)
136 Agricultural Economics Research Review Vol. 18 (Conference No.) 2005

to care for a particular number of people under a particular kind of

environment or situation. The contingency plan for drinking water, irrigation
water, food security, cropping system, drought warning system and
research on drought- resistant varieties of crops may be updated.

Indtorudction
Natural disasters such as prolonged droughts, floods and cyclones
threaten food security, directly reducing agricultural production and food
supply. These disasters can disrupt local economies and reduce household’s
access to food by destroying infrastructure and protective assets and reducing
employment opportunities. The droughts in the year 2002-2003 (agricultural
year) in Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) and other parts of India led to a drastic reduction
in the crops of rainy and post-rainy seasons. However, a combination of
well-functioning private markets and effective farmer-coping strategies
prevented big losses. Keeping these points in view, a study has been conducted
on the experiences of farming community in context of droughts with the
following objectives:
(i) To study the nature of drought year 2002-2003
(ii) To list the support and services specially made available
(iii) To examine the nature and adequacy/ efficiency of adoption at farmers
level, and
(iv) To suggest policy options based on the findings.

Methodology

Selection of Zones/Villages and Decision-making Units

From each of the three NARP zones under area jurisdiction of the C. S.
Azad University, Kanpur, one representative district was selected on the
basis of rainfall percentage, area under irrigation and cropping pattern. On
the basis of closeness to these values of district averages, one representative
village was selected from each district. These villages had similar average
agro-climatic characteristics, rainfall, and percentage area under irrigation
and cropping pattern of the sub-region. The basic social unit in the traditional
rural societies is usually organized along familial lines, comprising a number
of related mail adults and their families. This unit, seen as an economic unit,
relates the consumption unit with the work unit. Accordingly, a list of all
economic/social units for the village was prepared along with their cultivated
area, and were categorized into three groups (small, medium and large).
 Singh et al.: Managing Risk in Agriculture under Drought Situation 137

Fifteen farmers were selected from each village and all the selected sample
farmers were divided randomly into each category in proportion to the
number of farmers in the village. A rapid rural survey of the selected villages
was conducted by interviewing 45 farmers. The information was collected
with the help of a well-structured questionnaire pertaining to the impact of
drought and activities adopted for minimizing risk by the farmers.

Results and Discussion

Farming: Nature and Extent of Drought

Farming in Uttar Pradesh is mainly rain-fed during rainy season and
irrigation-based during the post-rainy season. But in the upland, during the
scanty rainfall, canals and tube-wells supplement water needs. In
Bundelkhand, crops grown during the post-rainy season are usually based
on residual moisture conserved in the rainy season. The rainfall occurs both
from Bengal and south-west monsoon during the months of July to September
every year. Uttar Pradesh faced an abnormal drought in the year 2002-
2003, which affected the crops widely. This drought was linked to decreases
in the average quantum of rainfall, and water in the main rivers (the Ganga
and the Yamuna). These evidently caused a decline in the yields of major
crops — rice, sorghum, pearl millets, moong, urd, wheat, rapeseed, and
other rabi pulses.

Extent of Drought
The prevalence of drought has been similar almost in all the three regions.
During June, July and August, the occurrence of total rainfall was far below
the normal level. During June, which is the sowing period for rainy crops
(rice, sorghum, pearl millets, mungbean, urd bean, til, maize, etc.), there
were only scanty rains. Also in July 2002, the level of rainfall was far less
than the normal. In August, scanty rainfall affected the sowing of rapeseed
(oil crop). The trend of rainfall can be seen from Table 1.
The major crops grown in the 2002 agriculture year were paddy, moong,
jowar, barley, urad, bajra, mustard, wheat, lentil gram, barseem, etc. Under
drought conditions, practices such as profile modification, deep ploughing,
and vertical mulching can increase water infiltration and hence deeper and
more uniform soil-wetting and subsequent root proliferation and growth occur.
Some farmers tried these crops but could not succeed because the minimum
level of rainfall could not support the survival of crops.
138 Agricultural Economics Research Review Vol. 18 (Conference No.) 2005

Table 1. Month-wise percentage of normal rainfall in U.P.: June 2002 to May 2003
Months Percentage of normal rainfall
June 2002 54.00
July 28.40
August 58.10
September 128.70
October 46.10
November 10.20
December 79.70
January 2003 105.7
February 236.30
March 28.90
April 120.50
May 38.10

Table 2. Livestock profile on farms: 2003-2004

Particulars 2001 2002 Change, %
Bundelkhand
Cows 5 6 20
Young stock of cows 22 17 -23
Buffaloes 6 16 167
Sheep - 40 100
South-west Zone of U.P.
Cows 4 5 25
Young stock of cows 23 19 -17
Buffaloes 12 15 25
Sheep - - -
Goats 2 1 -50
Central Plain
Cows 2 2 -
Young stock of cows - - -
Buffaloes 17 21 24
Goats - 12 100
Sheep - - -

Livestock
On sample farms, only young stock of cattle were liquidated during the
drought period. The farmers were of the opinion that the non-productive
young stock needed to be disposed off immediately because of fodder
problem. The small ruminant sheep were sold due to no option for grazing
not only in the southwestern arid zone but in the other surrounding areas
also where they usually visited for grazing. A portion of land area too was
 Singh et al.: Managing Risk in Agriculture under Drought Situation 139

being used for cultivating high quality (berseem / sorghum) fodder for the
livestock to facilitate its timely supply but the drought had preponderance of
weeds to a large extent. The data on livestock revealed that goats and
young stock of cows had been liquidated to avoid loss (Table 2).

Cropping Pattern
Crops-centred diversification is conditioned through the choice of crops
with varying maturity periods, differential sensitivity to environmental
fluctuations, and flexibility in end-uses of the main products and by-products.
Such a diversification is often manifested through intercropping by mixing
seeds and varying the row arrangements during the previous drought year,
but in this drought, according to the farmers, these practices were not adopted
due to early/ advance forecasting of normal rainfall by the meteorological
department. However, to some extent, manipulation of plant population was
made in accordance with the changing information on soil-moisture, and
input-use dictated by the emerging weather (drought) conditions that also
introduced flexibility into the management. The level of drought can be
visualized by area allocated to different crops, given in Table 3.

Loss from Crops

Cropping strategies to obtain precipitation-use efficiencies were found
to vary, depending on climate, resource-availability and farmers’ needs.
Farmers knew that attaining the maximum yield may not be the most
economical goal. Abnormal weather, affecting the crop productivity proved
that water was the most critical input during the drought period. The success
cof crops ould only be ascertained in the drought when external water was
available in plenty. It is certain that the rainfall factor will physically influence
the efficiency and ability to produce crops under the ceteris paribus
assumption. The data in Table 4 indicates that in 2002 there were drastic
reductions in yields in the study areas.

Level of Fertilizer Application

Input use in the situation of water-shortages depends upon the
expectation farmers have about the future water supply, based on their
experiences during the previous scarcity episode. For example, farmers
were not able to cut much in use of chemical fertilizers because expectations
about failure of rainfall were not realized (Table 5).

Villagers’ Experiences of the 2002 Drought and Their Responses

This case study was done only for one drought year 2002 which had
occurred after a long gap of 16 years. The Meteorological Department of
Table 3. Cropping pattern of different sample farms under different zones in 2002-2003 and percentage change from 2001 to 2002
(area in ha)
Name of crops 0-1 ha 1-2 ha 2 ha and above Total
2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 Change, %
A. Bundelkhnd Zone
Jowar 0.5 0.00 1.2 0.00 3.65 0.00 5.35 0.00 -100
Moong 0.3 0.00 1.1 0.00 5.90 0.00 7.30 0.00 -100
Wheat 0.8 1.00 3.25 3.70 25.25 26.15 29.30 30.85 +5.29
Mustard 0.3 0.30 0.75 0.80 8.75 6.2 9.80 7.3 -25.51
Gram 0.2 0.20 0.70 0.65 2.35 3.35 3.25 4.2 +29.23
Lentil 0.4 0.3 0.80 0.85 3.00 4.3 4.20 5.45 +29.76
Others 0.1 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.65 0.00 1.25 0.00 -100
Net cultivated area 1.8 1.80 6.0 6.00 40.00 40.00 47.80 47.80 0
Total cropped area 2.6 1.80 8.30 6.00 49.55 40.00 60.75 47.80 -21.31
Cropping intensity, % 144.44 138.33 123.89 125.80
B. South-west Zone
Bajra 2.15 1.05 3.00 1.65 5.20 3.35 10.35 6.05 -41.55
Urd 1.15 0.50 0.90 0.00 3.35 0.00 5.40 0.50 -90.74
Moong 0.50 0.45 0.75 0.80 1.75 1.80 3.00 3.05 +1.67
Til 0.20 - 0.50 - 1.65 - 2.35 0.00 -100
Wheat 3.20 3.60 3.75 3.90 6.40 6.28 13.35 13.78 +3.22
Mustard 0.75 0.60 0.85 0.83 2.75 3.24 4.35 4.67 7.36
Gram 0.80 0.00 1.25 0.00 2.15 0.00 4.20 0.00 -100
Others 0.15 1.15 0.40 1.40 1.0 2.28 1.55 4.83 +211.61
Net cultivated area 4.70 4.70 5.60 5.60 12.40 12.40 22.70 22.70 0
140 Agricultural Economics Research Review Vol. 18 (Conference No.) 2005

Contd...
Table 3. Cropping pattern of different sample farms under different zones in 2002-2003 and percentage change from 2001 to 2002 —
Contd.
(area in ha)
Name of crops 0-1 ha 1-2 ha 2 ha and above Total
2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 Change %
Total cropped area 8.90 7.35 11.40 8.58 24.25 16.95 44.55 32.88 -26.20
Cropping intensity, % 189.36 203.57 195.56 196.04
C. Central Plain Zone
Paddy 2.00 1.55 3.15 2.55 7.50 0.75 12.65 4.85 -61.66
Jowar 1.15 0.20 1.20 0.70 3.80 0.25 6.15 1.15 -81.30
Moong 0.65 0.33 1.30 1.40 2.75 0.53 4.70 2.26 -51.92
Wheat 1.25 1.20 2.25 3.05 6.85 1.21 10.35 5.46 -47.25
Mustard 0.75 1.10 0.85 0.50 2.35 0.00 3.96 1.60 -59.60
Gram 0.25 0.20 0.65 1.15 1.20 0.00 2.10 1.35 -35.71
Potato 0.80 - 1.20 - 3.25 - 5.25 - -100
Others 0.60 1.02 0.40 2.10 1.20 1.61 2.20 4.73 +115
Net cultivable area 3.80 3.60 5.80 6.60 15.60 15.60 25.20 25.8 +2.38
Total cropped area 7.45 5.60 11.00 11.45 28.90 4.35 47.35 21.4 -54.81
Cropping intensity, % 196.09 189.60 185.26 187.90
Singh et al.: Managing Risk in Agriculture under Drought Situation
141
142 Agricultural Economics Research Review Vol. 18 (Conference No.) 2005

Table 4. Average yield of different crops in 2001 and 2002 and percentage change
in 2001 over 2002
(per ha)
Crop Yield Change in 2001 over 2002 %
2001 2002
Central Zone
Paddy 32.71 21.45 -34.42
Jowar 210.00* 173.06* -17.59
Moong 6.32 6.55 3.64
Wheat 33.42 21.41 -35.94
Mustard 11.37 8.08 -28.94
Bundelkhnd Zone
Moong 5.22 Nil -100
Wheat 29.61 15.02 -49.27
Mustard 9.58 7.63 -20.35
Gram 10.15 7.40 -27.09
Lentil 8.64 8.35 -3.36
South-west Zone
Bajra Nil 3.12 -
Urd Nil 6.00 -
Moong 6.07 6.85 12.85
Wheat 32.40 21.08 -34.94
Mustard 11.74 8.23 -29.90
Gram 12.33 Nil -100
Barley Nil 15.78 -
* Jowar for fodder

India usually announces the rainfall prospects in advance through tele vision/
radio/news papers. Accordingly in 2002 summer, announcement was made
for the normal rainfall occurrence. The information given in Table 6 focuses
on the response of the villagers about the advance announcement of normal
rainfall by the meteorological department.
All the fifteen farmers responded to the advance announcement about
normal rainfall and consequently they planned to produce crops in the usual
way as in previous years. In Bundelkhand, it was noticed that only 40 per
cent farmers had production planning in accordance to the advance
announcement. The farmers of the Southwest semi-arid tropics (Mathura)
felt a jolt because nearly 86 per cent farmers had planned their cultivation
based on rainfall announcement and had sown pearl millets (major crop)
and moongbean after the first rain showers which had come late. But the
persistent drought-spell did not allow them to save the crops in spite of
availability of underground water. The underground water was highly saline,
 Singh et al.: Managing Risk in Agriculture under Drought Situation 143

Table 5. Changes in fertilizer application in different districts of UP

Crops Yield Change in 2001 over 2002, %
2001 2002
Central Zone
Paddy 130.16 127.88 -1.75
Jowar - 32.46 -
Moong 35.07 29.34 -16.34
Wheat 113.82 116.03 1.94
Mustard 81.94 54.59 -33.38
Bundelkhnd Zone
Moong 29.52 - -100
Wheat 79.43 95.27 19.94
Mustard 56.23 52.69 -6.30
Gram 35.68 69.94 96.02
Lentil 36.88 67.94 84.22
South-west Zone
Bajra - 86.79 -
Urd - 20.0 -
Moong 32.86 23.74 -27.75
Wheat 95.38 110.68 16.04
Mustard 80.96- 52.36 -
Gram 40.04 - -100
Barley - 57.22 -

Table 6. Farmers’ responseto meteorological news/perception about the rainfall

in 2002 summer
Response Climatic news (prediction with normal rainfall)
Central plain zone Bundelkhand South-west zone
Yes 100 40 86
No Nil 60 14
Total, % 100 100 100
Number 15 15 15

and was not suitable for irrigation and thus all the crops were lost. Had the
rainfall water been available, the underground water could be used in a
conjuctive manner.
The farmers of the south-western zone were highly responsive to make
plan for crop sowing soon after receiving the meteorological forecasting
because their farming involved combination of external water with internal/
saline water to establish crops like sorghum and pearl millets. In Bundelkhand,
tradionally the crops like wheat, linseed, gram, lentils, etc. are grown on the
144 Agricultural Economics Research Review Vol. 18 (Conference No.) 2005

rainfall residual moisture during the winter season. In the central UP, farmers
went for production using canal-based assured irrigation (Table 7).
The drought forced the villagers in the upland areas to move out of their
villages to find a new or additional source of income. The survey found that
the majority of villagers of Gausana (Mathura) had migrated temporarily
while in the central UP and Bundelkhand, they had moved out marginally
(Table 8).
The effect of abnormal weather in 2002 forced the household members
to earn through wage income. The data in Table 9 indicate the extent some
members had temporarily moved out to cater family through the wage
income. However, a larger proportion of members (adults) had gone out for
wage-earning in Mathura while their proportion in Central UP and
Bundelkhand was very small. However, had drought prolonged for more
than one year, large-scale migration might had occurred from all the three-
studied areas.
One major effect of the drought in 2002 was the crop failure, which
increased the debt of households, who had borrowed money from the bank.
The survey found that the amount of debt of the majority in Central as well
as Southwest zones had increased (Table 10). A comparison indicates that
this problem was stronger in the western UP (Mathura). This may be due to
the high rate of interest on the debt borrowed from the bank.

Table 7. Adjustments to production planning after receiving the warning news

about drought
Response Production planning when drought approaches
Central plain zone Bundelkhand South-west zone
Yes 30 Nil 89
No 70 100 11
Total, % 100 100 100
Number 15 15 15

Table 8. Seeking additional income facing abnormal weather in 2002

(in per cent)
Response Seeking additional income
Central plain zone Bundelkhand South-west zone
Yes 18 13 65
No 82 87 35
Total, % 100 100 100
Number 15 15 15
 Singh et al.: Managing Risk in Agriculture under Drought Situation 145

Table 9. Temporary migration of household members in 2002

(in per cent)
Response Temporary movement
Central plain zone Bundelkhand South-west zone
Some members 8.5 5.5 37.6
All members 2.5 Nil 0.7
No members 89 94.5 61.7
Total, % 100 100 100
Number 85* 76* 75*
* Adult working members, child not included

Table 10. Increase in debt amount due to the drought in 2002

Response Debt increase
Central plain zone Bundelkhand South-west zone
Increase 6 Nil 46
No debt Nil Nil 54
Decrease Nil Nil Nil
Total, % 100 100 100
Number 15 15 15

The Government of UP had paid attention to this problem of water

conservation and the Department of Soil Conservation had identified the
suitable areas for water catchment and where ever possible, it was
implemented also. After consulting the villagers, this measure was regarded
as the most important to counter the effect of drought, especially in
Bundelkhand (Table 11).

Risk Management
Risk management practices embodied in the cropping strategies can be
subdivided into those that relate primarily to diversification of resources and
enterprises and those that relate to adjustments within the cropping systems.
These popular and potentially important risk management practices are
presented in Table 12. Farmers exploit vertical, horizontal, and temporal
dimensions of the natural resource-base to reduce production risks. Planting
on a top sequence is a mild form of vertical diversification, which allows
flexibility in production, conditional on the timing and quantity of rainfall at
planting.
146 Agricultural Economics Research Review Vol. 18 (Conference No.) 2005

Table 11. Water resource development

Response Water resource development
Central plain zone Bundelkhand South-west zone
Very useful Nil 100 28
Useful Nil Nil Nil
Useless 100 Nil 72
Total, % 100 100 100
Number 15 15 15

Spatial scattering offers scope for improving crop-income stability to

the extent that production risks are not perfectly correlated across
microenvironments. Likewise, staggered plantings and sequential
diversification reduce variability to the extent that production risks are not
perfectly covariate across time.

Drought Relief Programmes

Drought preparedness includes information on potential sources of
disaster, predicting the nature of possible disaster, preparing inhabitants of
disaster-prone areas in ways to react in the case of a disaster, as well as
stockpiling of goods, and organizing information in various fields to make
possible the most efficient response from the government and relief agencies
when a disaster strikes. Relief assistance agencies have called upon the
medical people, urban planners, environmental engineers, sociologists,
nutritionists, criminologists, geologists, agricultural specialists and a myriad
of other experts to cooperate in pooling together the information that might

Table 12. General risk/loss-management strategies adopted in Uttar Pradesh

Loss-management strategies Risk-management strategies
• Interlinked consumption and • Spatially scattered planting
production
• Informal mutual aid • Planting crops with multiple uses
• Storages and recycling • Planting crops with insurance potential
• Linkages and agricultural factor • Planting crops insensitive to temporal
markets variability
• Depletion and replenishment of • Mixed cropping and farming
assets
• Labor market participation and • Plant spacing (thinning and gap-filling)
foraging
• Public relief • Splitting and skipping in input-use
• Top sequential planting
• Temporally diverse planting
 Singh et al.: Managing Risk in Agriculture under Drought Situation 147

be used in disaster prediction and in taking the advance decisions on the

probable appropriate countermeasures, as well as in listing the supplies that
need to be stockpiled near the potentially affected region.
It has been found that under the drought relief programmes calamity
relife of Rs 130 per family was allocated in all the three zones, viz. central
plain zone, south-west zone and Bundelkhand zone. However, no relief was
provided for (i) cattle feed, (ii) fodder transporation, (iii) drinking water
supply, (iv) seed supply, and (v) one-time drought relief.

Conclusions and Suggestions

It can be concluded that rainfall probability analyses should be a
component of agricultural management strategy, especially in the larger
areas of the Indo-Gangetic Plains. The major weaknesses for generating
this type of information and analysis are non-provision of specific information
about the forthcoming season. To mitigate risk in agriculture, some
suggestions are given below :
• There is a need to prepare a drought vulnerability index for different
districts in the state.
• The IMD’s monsoon forecast methodology needs some serious
rethinking.
• The intensive climate information /farmer interface in watershed
programme, tighter agriculture risk management, and sustained-crop
diversification will have to be considered.
• Preparedness measures can be taken by two different agencies: the
assisting agency, and the drought-prone areas themselves.
• Drawing on field information assembled from the drought-relief
performance, state government may develop ways of drawing inference
from the experience.
• The particular activity in drought situation should be analyzed and
assessed by the degree of success.
• These judgments should be recorded and filed in a retrieval system
called ‘lessons learnt’. It could be used as a useful reference source
for deciding such questions as what quantities are required to care for
a particular number of people under one kind of environment or situation.
• The contingency plans for drinking water, irrigation water, food security,
cropping system, drought warning system and research on drought-
resistant varieties of crops may be updated.
148 Agricultural Economics Research Review Vol. 18 (Conference No.) 2005

Reference
Ungar, P.W., O.R. Jones and Steiner, (l988) Principle of crop and soil management:
Procedures for maximizing production per unit rainfall. In: Drought Research
Priorities for the Dryland Tropics. pp. 97-112.
Singh, N.K., (1991) Traditional farming practices for management of risk in rainfed
agriculture. In: Technologies for Minimizing Risk in Rainfed Agriculture; ISEE,
IFAD and ICAR: Conference proceedings.