COMPLEXITY THEORY: THE CYNEFIN MODEL

This framework from David Snowden of Cognitive Edge describes four different
conditions that require different strategies for thinking and acting. He refers to these
different strategies for thinking and acting as different ways of sense-making. That’s a
good term, because it’s important to make sense of a situation correctly, first, in order to
respond appropriately as conditions change. It is a very useful framework because
many leaders prefer one strategy of sense-making and then try to fit all leadership
situations into that box.

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 Complexity Theory: The Cynefin Model, Page 2 of 4

Simple Systems
• Clear cause and effect relationships that are easy to understand and are
repeatable and predictable
• There are rules, and therefore predictability. If doing X leads to the result Y, then
every time you do X you will get Y. That is, the rules of the system have a
consistent impact on the agents in that system. Solutions are linear and rational.
• Lend themselves to” best practices,” with standard processes and clear
measurement
• Once we know what something is, we know what to do with it. Frederick
Winslow Taylor’s Scientific Management improved efficiency by breaking
everything down into simple, repeatable steps. Fast food franchises, for example,
can do well with high employee turnover because each step is clearly laid out.

Complicated Systems
• Complicated Systems still have a clear relationship between cause and effect,
but it takes considerable training to understand that relationship, and analytical
techniques to determine a good way forward. This is the area of experts, and
realm of good practice, rather than best practice, because different experts may
come up with equally good solutions to the problem.
• Complicated systems lend themselves to detailed planning before taking action.
o Building a 747 or other engineering problems are good examples. Each of
the parts are known, including how they work together, but it still takes
experts to figure out the right sequence and how to respond to different
conditions that may arise.
o A sign of being in the Complicated realm is that, if the same situation
recurs, the same solution will apply. Simple and Complicated Systems are
both Ordered Systems. Rules always have the same impact on agents
within the system. Solutions are rational and linear, and repeatable.

Complex Systems
• Complex systems have an interrelationship between cause and effect that
cannot be predicted in advance, although in hindsight whatever happens will
make sense
• This is because:
o There are too many different factors and interactions to take them all in
account

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 Complexity Theory: The Cynefin Model, Page 3 of 4

o The elements of the system (the rules and the agents) change each other
as they interact, so they continually co-create each other
o Sometimes a seemingly small factor has an extremely large effect.
• When a result happens in hindsight it makes sense, but if the same “causes”
were applied again a different result would likely emerge
• In a Complex System you can begin with expertise, and apply whatever skills
and knowledge are at your disposal, and then you see how the system responds
and have that determine next steps. If it works, then do more of it. If not, then
shift. This is the realm of Dynamic Steering, with rapid cycles of goal, action,
feedback and reflection.
• The leadership of people in an organization is a Complex System. Change
management, creation of high performance teams and organizations, and
employee engagement initiatives all fall in the Complex area. There are not
simple rules to follow. The same actions do not always lead to the same results.
• Leaders who identify primarily with themselves as technical experts tend to
use a very ineffective style in Complex Systems. This is often true for leaders
who were promoted for their technical excellence rather than for their potential
as leaders of people, and who were then given little or no training in how to
effectively lead.
o Unlike Complicated System, which lends themselves to linear approaches,
Complex Systems are non-linear.
o While Complicated Systems can be figured out and have predictable
outcomes, in Complex Systems the solutions are emergent because they
become clearer over time, especially with frequent learning cycles.
o For this reason, Complex systems do not lend themselves to hierarchical,
top-down, command-and-control solutions.
o However, most leaders were promoted by gaining mastery in
Complicated systems, and those systems are more conducive to top-
down hierarchical leadership. To the detriment of the organization and its
employees, these leaders often continue to apply that hierarchical and
linear style of leadership to issues in the Complex domain.

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler” – Albert Einstein

Chaotic Systems
• In a Chaotic System all hell has broken loose.
• There are no rules, or at least no clear ones. The situation is novel and it’s a crisis.

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 Complexity Theory: The Cynefin Model, Page 4 of 4

• There are no obvious cause and effect relationships, and the leader’s role is to
first take action to try to stabilize the situation.
• Once stabilized it likely becomes a Complex System.
• Some leaders thrive in chaotic environments, but then have a hard time letting
go of tight control when the situation shifts to one of the other systems.

Disordered Systems
• A system is Disordered when it’s not yet clear which of the four Systems is
actually present.
• When leaders are first exploring Complexity Theory, this isn’t a bad thing.
Developmentally it’s a very good sign when a leader stops to ask, “What
conditions are currently present, and therefore what kind of sense-making is
needed?”

Recognizing Different Conditions

Let’s use the example of building a bridge.
• Prior to construction, experts need to apply their craft and come up with a plan
for moving forward. This part of the work is a Complicated System.
• Once the work commences, some of it is in the realm of a Simple System. It’s
known at what temperature certain paints will adhere, for example, and how to
best fasten parts of the structure together. There are known and replicable
processes to put into place.
• For both the Simple and Complicated Systems there are rules to follow that work
consistently, rationally, and linearly. Both are conducive to more hierarchical, top-
down management.
• However, maintaining a positive work environment, optimizing engagement and
harmony, managing high performance and retaining top talent is Complex.
Though there are important models to consider and apply, it cannot all be figured
out ahead of time. It requires a different mindset on the part of the leader and
the outcome is often emergent.

It is very important for leaders to understand what conditions they are facing, and
which of the four mindsets or ways of sense-making are most effective given those
conditions. Frequently a task will have at least three different conditions present in
different aspects of the work.

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