Opportunity-Infrastructure-Debt
Opportunity-Infrastructure-Debt
in Infrastructure Debt
PUBLIC SECURITIES GROUP
We see a compelling opportunity in the debt of infrastructure Infrastructure Assets Are Essential Throughout Cycles
companies that form the backbone of the global economy. Illustrative Example: Utilities & Renewables
Infrastructure debt is a growing asset class powered by tailwinds to 1973 Late 1970s Early 1990s Late 2000s 2020
infrastructure growth—what we call the “Three Ds”—the megatrends of Brookfield Essential Essential Essential Essential
decarbonization, digitalization and deglobalization. Through 2040, public and first invests in during during during during
private entities are expected to spend nearly $80 trillion to modernize utilities renewable power recession rising rates recession pandemic
as well as build, expand and improve essential energy, data and transportation
infrastructure. At the same time, the unique characteristics of infrastructure
enable infrastructure debt to offer several potential investment benefits
to portfolios.
As of November 30, 2024. For illustrative purposes only. Historical examples refer to Brookfield Asset Management Inc. and its affiliates. The mention of any specific security is not intended
as investment advice and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation for any person to buy, sell or hold any particular and it is not an indication of trading intent or current holdings
or future holdings of Brookfield or the prediction of investment performance. The reader should not assume that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable.
Views, opinions, forecasts or other information expressed herein are current as of the dates mentioned and are subject to change at any time without notice.
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They have high barriers to entry. Due to high capital costs, The Growing Infrastructure Debt Universe
economies of scale, geographic location advantages and
contractual and/or regulatory frameworks, infrastructure Billion $
As of December 31, 2023. Source: Brookfield PSG, Bloomberg. See disclosures for additional information.
THE OPPORTUNITY IN INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT * Represents the Infrastructure Sectors, as defined by Brookfield, of the ICE BofA Global Corporate Index, ICE BofA Global High Yield Index, and Bloomberg’s universe of loans.
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The Portfolio Benefits Infrastructure Ratings Have Been Less Volatile Historically
One-Year Rating Volatility
0.0
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021
COHORT DATE
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Lower default rates and higher recovery rates Infrastructure Debt Has Relatively Low Default Rates and Higher Recovery Rates
Infrastructure debt across the ratings spectrum has historically exhibited lower
● Year 1 ● Year 3 ● Year 5 ● Year 10
incidence of default and higher recovery rates than the debt of non-real asset
companies. The cumulative five-year default rate for nonfinancial corporates
OVERALL CUMULATIVE DEFAULT RATES OVERALL CUMULATIVE RECOVERY RATES
has been 9.6%, while infrastructure corporate and project finance has been
2.4%. In aggregate, infrastructure debts have historically been less likely 14.3%
to incur credit losses than NFCs, especially over longer horizons. On average,
a total infrastructure debt security suffered credit losses amounting to 0.3% 99.8%
of its face value over five years and 0.5% of its face value over 10 years, Corporate
99.4%
Infrastructure
compared with 6.0% and 8.9%, respectively, for a typical NFC.
and Project
Finance 99.1%
We attribute the lower default rates to the attractive fundamental characteristics 9.6%
of the underlying assets that infrastructure companies own and operate. 98.6%
Meanwhile, when these companies do default, we attribute investors being
able to recoup more of their investment to the high-quality assets that back
6.4%
infrastructure companies. This stronger underlying collateral generates cash
flows that creditors typically have a priority claim on. 98.7%
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Low cyclicality Infrastructure Debt Has Offered Defensiveness in Periods of Distress
Given infrastructure debt’s higher quality and lower default rates, Average Annual Default Rates During Periods of Economic Stress
we find that it has offered defensiveness in periods of distress.
Utilities especially tend to be more defensive and have historically ● Infrastructure ● Non-Real Asset
outperformed in economic downturns. 6% 5.6%
5% 4.6%
4.1%
●4%
Infrastructure ● Non-Real 3.8%
Asset
3%
6% 2.8%
5.6% 2.2%
2%
5% 1.8%
4.6%
1% 4.1%
4% 0.6% 3.8%
0%
3% 2.8%
1989-1992 2000-2002 2008-2009 2.2%2020
2% 1.8%
As 1% 0.6%
of December 31, 2023. Source: Moody’s and Brookfield PSG research. The time frames represent recent periods of default rates 200 basis points (bps) or higher than the historical average.
The long-term annual average back to 1920 is 2.8%. Brookfield classifies the following sectors as infrastructure: cable & satellites; telecommunications; transportation and utilities.
0%
● Infrastructure ● Non-Real Asset
1989-1992 ● Grey shading represents recessionary
2000-2002 period* 2008-2009 2020
9%
Average Annual Default Rates (1980-2023)
●6%
Infrastructure ● Non-Real Asset ● Grey shading represents recessionary period*
9%
3%
6%
0%
1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 2023
3%
0%
1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 2023
As of December 31, 2023. Source: Moody’s and Brookfield PSG research. The time frames represent recent periods of default rates 200 basis points (bps) or higher than the historical average.
The long-term annual average back to 1920 is 2.8%. Brookfield classifies the following sectors as infrastructure: cable & satellites; telecommunications; transportation and utilities.
* National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) based Recession Indicator for the United States from the Peak through the Trough. Full calendar year shaded if at least one month in that calendar
year was considered a recessionary period.
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Attractive risk-adjusted returns Infrastructure Has Historically Outperformed Broad Sectors
Infrastructure debt can potentially provide attractive risk-adjusted Annualized Excess Returns vs. Government Bonds (December 31, 2002-September 30, 2024)
returns. Indeed, we find infrastructure debt has historically
outperformed similarly rated broader corporates, while providing ● Infrastructure ● Broad
3%
2%
1.49% 1.67%
1.19% 1.28%
1%
0%
SHORT DURATION INVESTMENT GRADE HIGH YIELD
For the period December 31, 2002 through September 30, 2024. Source: Brookfield PSG, Bloomberg. Period reflects longest available dataset for the majority of the indexes in scope. Standard
Deviation represents the annualized standard deviation of the monthly excess returns. Sharpe Ratio shown with this standard deviation as the denominator. Infrastructure refers to the infrastructure
sectors, as defined by Brookfield, of each respective index presented. Short Duration refers to the ICE BofA 1-5 Year U.S. Corporate Index (CVA0); Investment Grade refers to the ICE BofA U.S.
Corporate Index; Hybrids/Preferreds not shown due to the ICE Variable Rate Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index inception date subsequent to start date; High Yield refers to the ICE BofA U.S.
High Yield Index. See disclosures for index definitions. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict
or depict the performance of any investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Attractive spreads Infrastructure Offers a Potential Spread Advantage Over Broad Sectors
We find that infrastructure debt currently offers a premium over similarly rated Option-Adjusted Spread (bps)
broader corporates, while providing exposure to investments that are deemed
to be essential in nature. ● Infrastructure ● Broad
400 375
Within high yield, this has been driven by dislocation within the data
350
infrastructure subsector, particularly among legacy telecommunications 303
300
issuers. Telecommunications is historically a high-capital-expenditure sector,
250
and it is going through structural changes due to competitive repositioning 200
200
of legacy businesses amid technological disruption, including significant Infrastructure
●150 ● Broad 160
0%
BBB Corporates BBB Infrastructure BB Corporates BB Infrastructure B Corporates
Hybrids Hybrids
As of September 30, 2024. Source: Brookfield PSG, Bloomberg. BBB Corporates refers to the ICE BofA BBB U.S. Corporate Index. BBB Infrastructure Hybrids refers to the BBB-rated securities
in infrastructure sectors, as defined by Brookfield, of the ICE Variable Rate Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index. BB Infrastructure Hybrids refers to the BB-rated securities in infrastructure sectors,
as defined by Brookfield, of the ICE Variable Rate Preferred & Hybrid Securities Index. BB Corporates refers to the ICE BofA BB U.S. High Yield Index. B Corporates refers to the ICE BofA B U.S. High
Yield Index. See disclosures for index definitions. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict
THE OPPORTUNITY IN INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT the performance of any investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
PUBLIC SECURITIES GROUP
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The Brookfield Advantage Case Studies:
Capturing the Portfolio Benefits of Infrastructure Debt
To access the opportunity in infrastructure debt, we believe it is key to work with a manager
with infrastructure expertise rooted in superior fundamental and credit analysis. We believe Liquid Complement to a Private Infrastructure Portfolio
a deep understanding of the assets backing debt can lead to capital preservation and better Investment Need
investment outcomes. Client with a large private infrastructure portfolio aiming to maintain liquidity for inflows and outflows
and maintain exposure to infrastructure.
At Brookfield PSG, we have extensive experience investing in infrastructure across the capital
structure—from listed equities to hybrids to term loans and corporate bonds—as well as Infrastructure Debt Portfolio
across multiple market cycles. We believe this gives us an advantage in uncovering potential A diversified, liquid portfolio of high-yield infrastructure debt that provides liquidity as well as the
opportunities to gain exposure to the attractive characteristics of infrastructure assets. potential for income and diversification.
As we seek to capture such opportunities, we aim to add value to real asset debt portfolios
through our security selection, sector allocations and credit allocations, while prioritizing Portfolio Optimization
capital preservation and income capture. We employ rigorous analysis to determine our
Investment Need
exposures, building our portfolios in all environments based on investment conviction,
Large insurance client aiming to increase portfolio yield relative to existing bond assets and offer
relative attractiveness of individual issues and the investment goals of our clients.
attractive risk profile.
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recommend Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC or any of its products
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ID P-657657
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