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Arghya Dutta BS-M201 Ca1

Bayes' Theorem is a statistical formula used to update probabilities based on new evidence, represented as P(A|B) = [P(B|A) * P(A)] / P(B). It has applications in various fields including medical diagnosis, spam filtering, engineering, and finance. Understanding conditional probability is essential for effectively utilizing Bayes' Theorem.

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7 views8 pages

Arghya Dutta BS-M201 Ca1

Bayes' Theorem is a statistical formula used to update probabilities based on new evidence, represented as P(A|B) = [P(B|A) * P(A)] / P(B). It has applications in various fields including medical diagnosis, spam filtering, engineering, and finance. Understanding conditional probability is essential for effectively utilizing Bayes' Theorem.

Uploaded by

pameilaroy307
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Bayes’ Theorem and Its Applications

Student Name: ARGHYA DUTTA


University Roll No: 13030824106
Department: CSE-AIML Semester: First
Paper Code: BS-M-201
Academic Session: 2024-2025
TECHNO MAIN SALT LAKE
Introduction to Probability

• - Probability is the measure of the likelihood of an event occurring.

• - Used in statistics, engineering, and real-world applications.

• - **Conditional Probability:** P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)


What is Bayes' Theorem?

• - Named after **Thomas Bayes**, an 18th-century statistician.

• - Describes how to update probabilities based on new evidence.

• - **Formula:** P(A|B) = [P(B|A) * P(A)] / P(B)


Derivation of Bayes’ Theorem

• 1. Start with conditional probability definitions:

• - P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)

• - P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A)

• 2. Rearranging gives:

• - P(A|B) = [P(B|A) * P(A)] / P(B)


Applications of Bayes’ Theorem

• 1. **Medical Diagnosis:** Predicting diseases based on test results.

• 2. **Spam Filtering:** Classifying emails as spam or not.

• 3. **Engineering & AI:** Used in ML, robotics, and sensor fusion.

• 4. **Finance & Risk Management:** Credit risk assessment, fraud

detection.
Example Problem

• **Problem:** A medical test is 98% accurate. If 0.5% of people have a disease, what is the probability that a randomly tested person who

gets a positive result actually has the disease?

• **Solution:**

• - P(A) = 0.005, P(B|A) = 0.98, P(B|¬A) = 0.02

• - Using Bayes’ Theorem, solve for P(A|B).


Summary

• - **Bayes' Theorem** helps update probability based on new data.

• - Used in **medicine, AI, finance, and engineering.**

• - Understanding **conditional probability** is key to using Bayes' Theorem.


References

• S. C. Gupta & V. K. Kapoor – Fundamentals of Mathematical StatisticsTechnology Enhanced L


• Morris H. DeGroot & Mark J. Schervish – Probability and Statisticsearning) –
•
• IIT lectures

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