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ArjunGarg-RandomVariables

The document provides an overview of random variables, defining them as numerical outcomes of random phenomena that can be discrete or continuous. It includes examples, such as the number of customers entering a coffee shop, and discusses the essential elements of a probability distribution for discrete random variables. Additionally, it highlights the flaws in NASA's safety calculations regarding O-rings, emphasizing the misconception of independence in probability assessments.

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3 views

ArjunGarg-RandomVariables

The document provides an overview of random variables, defining them as numerical outcomes of random phenomena that can be discrete or continuous. It includes examples, such as the number of customers entering a coffee shop, and discusses the essential elements of a probability distribution for discrete random variables. Additionally, it highlights the flaws in NASA's safety calculations regarding O-rings, emphasizing the misconception of independence in probability assessments.

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hahasofunny1v1.lol
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Research Statistics 2 Video Worksheet to Accompany “Random Variables”

Unit 1

https://www.learner.org/series/against-all-odds-inside-statistics/random-variables/

Unless you’re asked to write an equation or perform a computation, you should write your responses in
clear, grammatically correct sentences.

1. Define random variable.

A random variable is a numerical outcome of a random phenomenon. It assigns a number to each


outcome of a random process and can be either discrete (having a finite or countable number of values) or
continuous (having an infinite number of possible values within a range).

2. Give an example of a random variable that does not involve coins, dice, or spinners – one that is drawn
from everyday life. (Define it precisely, so that anyone could measure your variable.)

A random variable could be the number of customers who enter a coffee shop in an hour. This variable,
denoted as X, represents the count of customers arriving during a given time period, which can vary
randomly each hour.

3. What are the two essential elements of a probability distribution of a (discrete) random variable?

The two essential elements of a probability distribution of a discrete random variable are the possible
values the random variable can take and the probabilities assigned to each of those values, ensuring that
the sum of all probabilities equals 1.

4. Create a probability distribution for the random variable you created in question 2. You can, of
course, assume you’ve observed many, many outcomes of the random phenomenon, but your made-up
probability distribution should be plausible.
5. Identify similarities and differences between a probability histogram and a histogram made to show
the distribution of a quantitative variable.

Both a probability histogram and a histogram displaying the distribution of a quantitative variable use
bars to represent data, with the horizontal axis showing values of the variable and the vertical axis
representing frequency or probability. However, a probability histogram represents theoretical
probabilities, while a regular histogram is based on observed data. Additionally, the bars in a probability
histogram sum to 1, whereas in a standard histogram, the total bar heights reflect the sample size.

6. What was the main statistical flaw in the safety calculation made by NASA to assess the safety of the
field joints in the space shuttle?

The main statistical flaw in NASA’s safety calculation for the field joints was the assumption of
independence between the O-rings. NASA initially treated the probability of failure for each field joint as
an independent event, which led them to underestimate the overall risk. In reality, the O-rings shared a
common failure mode due to joint rotation, meaning that if one failed, the others were more likely to fail
as well. This dependence increased the probability of catastrophic failure beyond what was originally
calculated.

Note: The error of assuming probabilities are independent when they are not occurred in courtroom
arguments in the UK (late 90’s) and California (1960’s). You can read about the cases of Sally Clark and
Janet Collins in the first 2 chapters of Math on Trial.
http://e.guigon.free.fr/rsc/book/SchnepsColmez13.pdf

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