Shivanshu Minor Project (3)
Shivanshu Minor Project (3)
Prediction Model ”
Bachelor of Technology
in
Shivanshu Ranjan
BTECH/15031/21
Recommended that the Minor Project entitled Stock Price Prediction Model
presented by Shivanshu Ranjan (BTECH/15031/21) under my supervision and
guidance be accepted as fulfilling this part of the requirements for the award of
Degree of Bachelor of Technology in Computer Science Engineering. To the
best of my knowledge, the report represents work carried out by the student in
Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Patna campus and the content of this
report is not form a basis for the award of any previous degree to anyone else.
DECLARATION CERTIFICATE
I certify that
a) The work contained in the thesis is original and has been done
by myself under the general supervision of my supervisor.
b) The work has not been submitted to any other Institute for any
other degree or diploma.
SHIVANSHU RANJAN
BTECH/15031/21
CERTIFICATE OF APPROVAL
This is to certify that the work embodied in this Minor Project Report entitled
“Stock Price Prediction Model”, is carried out by Shivanshu Ranjan,
BTECH/15031/21 has been approved for the degree of Bachelor of Technology
in Computer Science Engineering of Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra,
Ranchi.
Date:
Place:
(Chairman)
Head of Department
ABSTRACT
This project presents the development of a secure and efficient electronic voting
system designed to streamline and safeguard the voting process. Leveraging
modern web technologies, this system incorporates a responsive front-end built
with React and a Firebase-backed architecture for real-time, scalable backend
support. The voting platform allows registered users to cast votes easily and
ensures the accuracy of vote tallying and user authenticity through Firebase’s
secure database management. To further enhance security, blockchain technology
is integrated to protect against vote tampering, providing an immutable and
transparent record of each vote cast. This blockchain layer reinforces the system’s
trustworthiness by making each vote traceable while preserving voter anonymity.
The system also includes an admin dashboard for monitoring and managing
voting data securely. By integrating blockchain with a robust digital voting
framework, this project demonstrates a highly secure, transparent, and accessible
voting solution adaptable for institutional or local election needs, reducing the
vulnerabilities commonly associated with traditional and purely digital voting
systems.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ……………………………………………………………………………i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ………………………………………………………….....ii
CHAPTER 1 Introduction…………………………………………………………… 12
1.1 Overview
1.2 Description
CHAPTER 3 Methodology……………………………………………………………21
3.1 Flow Diagram
3.1.1 User Flowchart
3.1.2 Admin Flowchart
3.2 Proposed Algorithm
INTRODUCTION
1.1 OVERVIEW
This project aims to develop a state-of-the-art stock price prediction system using
deep learning to support better investment decisions and strategy formulation.
The model leverages historical market data and advanced computational
techniques to deliver accurate forecasts of future price trends. At the heart of this
solution is a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, which excels at
analyzing sequential data to uncover complex temporal relationships and
evolving market patterns.
The system features an intuitive and responsive front-end interface, allowing
investors and analysts to easily access predictions and key market insights. On
the backend, a scalable cloud-based architecture ensures efficient real-time
processing and seamless model training. Techniques such as feature engineering,
data normalization, and optimized hyperparameter tuning are applied to enhance
accuracy and robustness, even under volatile market conditions.
To overcome challenges like overfitting and noisy data, the model employs
regularization techniques and sophisticated data preprocessing methods. By
integrating cutting-edge deep learning technology with a user-friendly design,
this project provides a reliable and efficient tool for analyzing market dynamics,
empowering stakeholders to make well-informed financial decisions.
1.2 DESCRIPTION
A stock price prediction model powered by deep learning employs
sophisticated algorithms to analyze historical market data and forecast future
price movements. These models are adept at uncovering intricate patterns
and relationships in stock behavior that traditional methods might not detect.
By processing large datasets of sequential information, they provide valuable
insights for investors and financial analysts to make well-informed decisions.
Key Features:
1. Deep Learning Architectures:
• Incorporates neural networks like Long Short-Term Memory
(LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), which excel at
analyzing time-series data.
• Models temporal dependencies and dynamic trends in stock price
behavior effectively.
2. Data Processing:
• Cleans and normalizes historical data to remove inconsistencies and
improve input quality.
• Employs feature extraction to select relevant market metrics such as
historical prices, trading volume, and technical indicators (e.g.,
Relative Strength Index or Moving Average Convergence
Divergence).
3. Improved Accuracy:
• Utilizes advanced optimization techniques like hyperparameter
tuning to refine the model’s performance.
• Integrates regularization strategies like dropout to reduce overfitting
and enhance generalization on unseen data.
4. Real-Time Predictions:
• Leverages cloud-based infrastructure to process live market data
and generate real-time forecasts.
• Provides insights through an intuitive interface, enabling users to
track market trends and respond quickly.
5. Adaptability and Scalability:
• Can be retrained with fresh data, ensuring it remains relevant in
evolving market conditions.
• Scalable design accommodates growing datasets and increased
computational demands.
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
The application of deep learning to stock price prediction has garnered significant attention
due to its ability to process complex and dynamic financial data. Deep learning models
leverage advanced architectures to identify intricate patterns and dependencies, making them
more robust and accurate compared to traditional statistical and machine learning methods.
2.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT
The stock market is inherently volatile, influenced by numerous complex and interrelated
factors such as economic conditions, political events, and market sentiment. Accurate
prediction of stock prices is a challenging task due to the non-linear relationships and
temporal dependencies embedded in the data. Traditional statistical models, while useful, fail
to capture the intricate patterns and dynamics present in the vast amount of historical and real-
time data.
Deep learning models, particularly those based on architectures like Long Short-Term
Memory (LSTM) networks and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), offer a promising approach to
addressing these challenges. These models excel in learning from sequential data and
capturing long-term dependencies, making them suitable for forecasting stock prices.
However, despite the advances in deep learning, several issues remain unresolved:
1. Data Noise and Volatility: Financial data is often noisy and highly volatile, making it
difficult to distinguish meaningful patterns from random fluctuations.
2. Overfitting: Deep learning models, due to their complexity, are prone to overfitting,
especially when trained on limited or noisy data, which reduces their generalization
ability on unseen stock market data.
3. Interpretability: Deep learning models are often criticized for their lack of
transparency. Stakeholders may find it difficult to trust predictions if the model’s
decision-making process is not interpretable.
4. Real-Time Data Processing: The dynamic nature of stock prices requires the ability
to process real-time data for timely predictions, a challenge for many traditional
models and even some deep learning frameworks.
5. Integration of Multi-Dimensional Data: Current models often focus solely on
historical stock prices, ignoring other valuable data sources such as social media
sentiment, financial news, and macroeconomic indicators, which can further enhance
prediction accuracy.
CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY
The methodology for stock price prediction using deep learning involves several key stages,
including data collection, preprocessing, model selection, training, and evaluation. Below is
an overview of the steps:
1. Data Collection
• Historical Stock Data: Gather historical stock prices (e.g., open, close, high, low, and
volume) from reliable financial data sources like Yahoo Finance or Alpha Vantage.
• Additional Features: Collect auxiliary data, such as technical indicators (e.g., MACD,
RSI), market sentiment from social media and news, and macroeconomic factors (e.g.,
interest rates, GDP).
2. Data Preprocessing
• Cleaning and Normalization: Remove any missing values, outliers, and normalize
data to ensure the model can learn effectively. Use techniques like Min-Max scaling or
Z-score normalization.
• Feature Engineering: Extract relevant features, such as moving averages, technical
indicators, or sentiment scores. Consider lagging features to capture temporal
dependencies.
• Train-Test Split: Split the data into training and testing sets, typically using an 80-20
or 70-30 ratio, ensuring that the model is tested on unseen data.
3. Model Selection
• Deep Learning Models:
• LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory): Due to their ability to model long-term
dependencies in sequential data, LSTMs are ideal for capturing trends in stock
prices.
• GRU (Gated Recurrent Units): GRUs are used for their efficiency and similar
performance to LSTMs, requiring fewer parameters.
• Hybrid Models: Combine CNNs for feature extraction and LSTMs/GRUs for
temporal analysis to capture both local and global patterns.
• Attention Mechanisms: Implement attention mechanisms to allow the model to focus
on important time steps or features that influence stock price movements.
4. Model Training
• Training Process: Train the deep learning model using the prepared dataset. Use
optimizers like Adam or RMS Prop to minimize loss functions such as Mean Squared
Error (MSE).
• Regularization: Apply techniques like dropout or L2 regularization to prevent
overfitting, especially with the complexity of deep learning models.
• Hyperparameter Tuning: Optimize hyperparameters, such as the number of layers,
units per layer, learning rate, and batch size, using grid search or random search.
5. Model Evaluation
• Validation: Use cross-validation techniques, such as k-fold cross-validation, to
evaluate the model's generalization ability on different data subsets.
• Performance Metrics: Assess model performance using metrics such as Mean
Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and R-squared. For financial
predictions, profit/loss prediction accuracy or directional accuracy (predicting whether
the stock will go up or down) can also be useful.
• Backtesting: Simulate the model’s performance on unseen historical data to evaluate
its real-world applicability.
6. Model Interpretation and Deployment
• Interpretability: Use techniques like SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) or LIME
(Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) to interpret the model’s decisions
and improve transparency.
• Real-Time Prediction: Deploy the model in a production environment where it can
receive real-time stock data for continuous prediction.
• Continuous Retraining: Retrain the model periodically using updated data to ensure
it adapts to changing market conditions.
4. Model Optimization
• Use techniques such as Grid Search or Random Search to tune hyperparameters.
• Apply Dropout in LSTM layers to prevent overfitting.
• Utilize early stopping to halt training when the validation loss stops improving.
Proposed Pipeline
1. Data Collection:
o Scrape historical stock prices and textual data (news, forums).
2. Sentiment Extraction:
o Use the Sentiment Classifier Algorithm to generate sentiment scores.
3. Stock Price Forecasting:
o Use Time-Series LSTM for stock prices.
4. Integration:
o Train a Hybrid LSTM Model combining both datasets for final predictions.
Tools and Libraries
• Sentiment Analysis: BERT, Hugging Face Transformers, TensorFlow/Keras, PyTorch.
• Stock Prediction: TensorFlow/Keras, NumPy, Pandas, Scikit-learn, Matplotlib.
• Data Collection: BeautifulSoup, Selenium, Yahoo Finance API.
This hybrid approach ensures that both market psychology (sentiments) and
numerical stock patterns are considered, leading to a more robust and accurate
prediction model.
CHAPTER 4
2.LSTM Model:
6. Model Limitations
• Observations:
o Predictions are influenced by unexpected external factors (e.g., geopolitical
events, natural disasters) that are difficult to model using historical data and
sentiment alone.
o The model assumes that past patterns and sentiments are indicative of future
trends, which may not always hold true in rapidly changing markets.
• Key Insights:
o Incorporating additional external features, such as macroeconomic indicators
(GDP, inflation) and market volatility indices, could improve prediction
robustness.
o The hybrid model is still dependent on the quality of sentiment data; improving
sentiment classifier accuracy remains a critical area for future development.
8. Future Recommendations
• Blockchain Integration:
o Using blockchain for immutable data storage and transparency.
• Improved Sentiment Analysis:
o Fine-tune sentiment analysis models with domain-specific data to improve
accuracy.
• Scalability:
o Explore distributed training approaches using cloud-based GPU/TPU solutions
for larger datasets.
• Explainability:
o Implement SHAP or LIME to provide explainable AI insights, helping users
understand model predictions.
FIG.5 Coc
Fig 5. Final Result
CHAPTER 5
In summary, the development and evaluation of the stock price prediction model demonstrated
encouraging results in forecasting short-term stock prices using deep learning. However,
further work is needed to enhance the model’s performance for longer-term predictions and its
robustness across varying market scenarios. This project lays a strong foundation for future
research and development in creating more advanced, interpretable, and reliable stock market
prediction systems.
REFERENCES
1. Prediction of Stock Market Using Artificial Intelligence by Akash Patel,
Devang Patel, Seema Yadav :: SSRN
2. [2103.14081] Stock price forecast with deep learning (arxiv.org)
3. A Novel AI-Based Stock Market Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithm
(hindawi.com)
4. GitHub — SohelRana-aiub-Pro/Advance-Machine-Learning-and-Data-Science-
Relevant-Projects: https://www.kaggle.com/docs/api
5. Machine learning techniques and data for stock market forecasting: A literature
review — ScienceDirect
6. Explainable stock prices prediction from financial news articles using sentiment
analysis — PMC (nih.gov)
7. (PDF) Stock Market Prediction Using Machine Learning | Kranthi Sai —
Academia.edu
8. STOCK MARKET FORECASTING BASED ON ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE TECHNOLOGY (csusb.edu)
9. Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning: An Easy Guide | Simplilearn
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