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 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.2 Figure 2.1 shows the PDF for a normal distribution determined from the unconfined compression
tests shown in the histogram. Does the mean and standard deviation of this PDF represent
aleatory or epistemic uncertainty? Explain.

Solution
The mean and standard deviation of this PDF contain both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.
The mean of 20.8 and standard deviation of 7.30 are estimate valued of the true mean and
standard deviation of the unconfined compressive strength of this sandstone. The epistemic
uncertainty is associated with the number of samples used to estimate the parameters. If we had
taken more samples, we would have better estimates. However, this particular sample obviously
contains a large number of measurements. Therefore the estimated standard deviation is
probably very close to the aleatory uncertainty and testing more specimens is unlike to reduce
the uncertainty significantly.

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-2
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.3 List three sources of epistemic uncertainty associated with determining the soil strength at a
given site and describe how you might reduce these uncertainties.

Solution
Source How do reduce
Small sample size Take and test more samples
Sloppy laboratory techniques Improve laboratory methods
Old or poor quality testing equipment Acquire improved testing equipment
Disturbance of soil samples before or Use better sampling and testing methods
during testing
Mixing up results from different samples Improve documentation methods to
eliminate mixing up samples

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-3
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.4 Using a random number generator create a sample of 4 relative densities using the PDF
presented in Figure 2.2. Repeat the exercise to create 3 different sample sets. Compute the mean
and standard deviation of your sample. Compute the mean and standard deviation of each
sample set. Compare the means and standard deviations of your samples with each other and
with the mean and standard deviation of the original distribution. Discuss the differences among
the sample sets and the original distribution, including the type of uncertainties you are dealing
with. How many samples do you think are needed to reliably determine the mean and standard
deviation of the relative density of this particular soil?

Solution
There are an infinite number of solutions to this problem. The table below shows Excel
spreadsheet formula that can be used to generate the random sample sets.

A B C D
1    N Z
2 94.9 5.7 =NORM.S.INV(RAND()) =$A$2+$B$2*C2
3 =NORM.S.INV(RAND()) =$A$2+$B$2*C3
4 =NORM.S.INV(RAND()) =$A$2+$B$2*C4
5 =NORM.S.INV(RAND()) =$A$2+$B$2*C5
6  =AVERAGE(D2:D5)
 =STDEV.S(D2:D5)

The table below shows three sample sets generated with the Excel spreadsheet shown above.
Note that the average of the samples ranges from 6.5 below the distribution mean to 6.8 above it.
Also one estimate of the standard deviation is nearly twice that of the original distribution. It is
possible, using sampling theory, to determine the number of sample required to have a certain
confidence level in the estimated parameters. However, this is well beyond the scope of this text.
Students should note that increasing the sample size to 3 to 7, significantly reduces the variability
of the estimated mean and standard deviation.

Sample # Trial 1 Trial 2 Trial 3

1 107.34 92.44 95.79
2 98.75 78.47 83.10
3 101.50 100.55 83.95
4 99.02 102.07 90.80
Sample mean 101.65 93.38 88.41
Sample Standard Deviation 3.99 10.80 6.01

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-4
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.5 A certain column will carry a dead load estimated to be 400 k with a COV of 0.1 and a live load
of 200 k with a COV of 0.25. What is the mean and standard deviation of the total column load?
What is the probability that this load will exceed 750 k?

Solution
First we must compute the standard deviation of each random variable from their mean and COV
using Equation 2.10.

 D  0.1(400)  40
 L  0.25(200)  50

Then we compute the mean and standard deviation of the total column load using Equations 2.17
and 2.18

Total  400  200  600

 Total  402  502  64

Then using Equation 2.15 we compute the probability that the load exceeds 750 and 1 minus the
probability that it is less than 750
 750 600   1   2.34  9.5 103

P Load >750  1   
 
 64 

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-5
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.6 A simply supported beam has a length of 3 m and carries a distributed load with a mean of 5
kN/m and a COV of 0.2. What is the mean and standard deviation of the maximum moment in the
beam? What is the probability the maximum moment will exceed 7 kN-m?

Solution
The equation for the maximum moment in a simply supported beam subject to a distributed load
is
wl 2 3
M max   w 2  1.125w
8 8

Using Equations 2.10, 2.17 and 2.18 the mean and standard deviation of Mmax is
M max  1.125w  5.62

 M max  1.125M max  1.125  COVw   w   1.125  0.2  5  1.125

Then using Equation 2.15 we compute the probability that the load exceeds 750 and 1 minus the
probability that it is less than 750

7 5.62 
P  M max >7   1    1   1.23  0.11
 1.125 

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-6
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.7 Using the data shown in Figure 2.5, determine the probability that tangent of the friction angle
for the mudstone at the Confederation Bridge site is less than 0.25.

Solution
The data in Figure 2.5 is lognormally distributed with  = -1.09 and  = 0.270. Using Equation
2.16

 ln 0.25 ( 1.09) 

P  tan   0.25        1.097   0.136
 0.270 

Or there is a 13.6% chance that tan will be less than 0.25.

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-7
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.8 The capacity for a certain foundation system is estimated to be 620 kN with a COV of 0.3. The
demand on the foundation is estimated to be 150 kN with a COV of 0.15. Compute the mean
factor of safety of this foundation and its probability of failure.

Solution
The mean factor of safety is

620
F   4.1
150

The standard deviation of demand and capacity are computed using Equation 2.10

 D  0.15 150   22.5

 C  0.3  620   186

The mean and standard deviation of the safety margin, m, are computed using Equations 2.17
and 2.18

m  620  150  470

 m  1862  22.52  187

And the probability that m < 0 is computed using Equation 2.15

 0 470  
P  m  0       2.51  6 10
3

 187 

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-8
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.9 We wish to design a shallow foundation with a probability of failure of 10-3. The footing
supports a column carrying a dead load with a mean of 30 k and COV of 0.05 and a live load
with a mean of 10 k and COV of 0.15. Based on the uncertainty of soil properties and our
analysis method, we estimate the COV of the foundation capacity to be 0.2. For what mean
capacity does the foundation need to be designed?
Solution
   m 
We want to select a value of C such that Pf = 10-3 or   C 3
  10 . From Equations 2.10,
 m 
2.17, and 2.18

m  C  D  L

   2   2   2   COV   2 +  COV  2   COV   2

C C D L C C D D D L

And

  

 
C   
D  L    10 3
  COV   2 +  COV   2   COV   2 
 C C D D D L 

Substituting know values of for the COVs and means

  
C  30 10 
 2 
  103

  0.2 C  +  0.05  30    0.1510  
2 2

Solving this equation iteratively using Excel we get

C = 106 k

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-9
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.10 Assume the foundation in Problem 2.9 was to support a high voltage transmission line near the
Danish city of Århus. If the transmission line fails it will potentially kill 50 people. If the
computed probability of failure is for a design life of 100 years, is risk associated with the failure
of design acceptable based on the Danish guidance in Figure 2.8? Explain.

Solution
The probability of failure in Problem 2.9 was set to 10-3. If this is the total probability of failure
over 100 years, then the annual probability of failure is approximately 10-3/100 = 10-5. The point
with 50 deaths and an probability of 10-5 is plotted on Figure 2.8 below. This point lies between
the negligible line and limit of tolerability for the Danish code. In this zone the project must
include mitigations to make the risk “as low as reasonably practicable” or the probability of
failure must be reduced to an annual probability of 10-6.
-3
10
Limit of
Tolerability (1)
-4
10 Negligible (1)
Annual Probability

Limit of
-5 (50, 10-3) Tolerability (2)
10
Negligible (2)
-6
10
Area of
Intense
Scrutiny (2)
10 -7

-8 1 2 3 4 5
10 10 0 10 10 10 10 10
Total Deaths

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-10
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.11 For the footing in Example 2.2, compute factor of safety required for a probability of failure of
510-4 assuming the COV of the demand is 0.15

Solution
From Example 2.2 we know that the mean capacity is 11,910 lb/ft2 with a standard deviation of
2,280 lb/ft2. The question is what is the greatest mean demand that will give us a probability of
failure of 510-4. To compute this we must compute the mean and standard deviation of the
safety margin, m, as a function of the mean and standard deviation of the demand, D.

m  C  D  11,910  D
   2   2  2, 280  COV  2, 280  0.15
m C D D D D
And

      11, 910 D  

5 10 4    D m   D
 m   
 2, 280  0.15D 
 2 D  11, 910 
5 10 4  
 2, 280  0.15 
 D 

Solving the above equation iteratively using Excel, we compute

D = 4135

And the mean factor of safety, F, is then

11, 910
F  2.9
4,135

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-11
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
 Chap. 2 Uncertainty and Risk in Foundation Design

2.12 If the ASD design method has work satisfactorily for over 50 years, what’s the value in changing
to LRFD method?

Solution
There are two major advantages to LRFD when compared to ASD. First, since LRFD uses
multiple partial factors of safety, it is more flexible and produces designs with more consistent
probabilities of failure for different load combinations, and different material property variability.
Second, the partial safety factors in LRFD are selected based on an optimization process that
uses probability theory explicitly include the variability of the loads, material properties, and
analysis methods.

Solutions Manual
Foundation Engineering: Principles and Practices, 3rd Ed 2-12
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by Copyright and written permission should be obtained from
the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or likewise. For information regarding permission(s), write to: Rights and Permissions Department, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
Discovering Diverse Content Through
Random Scribd Documents
all the pancakes are baked. Now fill each pancake with a generous
amount of creamy cottage cheese, then roll, sprinkle with
confectioners’ sugar, and top with strawberry preserves.

14
 New Ways for Old Favorites!

7-UP BAKED SWEET POTATOES

Still hunting for a way to entice the kids into eating sweet potatoes?
Tell ’em you make ’em with 7-Up! And, you can—just follow this easy
recipe.

6 sweet potatoes (or yams)

1 cup brown sugar
1 7-oz. bottle 7-Up
½ tsp. salt
2 tbsp. margarine or butter
cinnamon or nutmeg

Cook sweet potatoes, or yams, whole (in jackets) in boiling salt

water about 20 minutes. Remove from water, cool slightly and
remove skins; cut into halves. In a heavy skillet, combine brown
sugar, 7-Up, salt, butter or margarine, and a dash of cinnamon or
nutmeg. Boil together 5 minutes. Then add sweet potatoes, place in
oven and simmer gently for about 20 minutes, basting occasionally.

7-UP SPICED CRANBERRY SAUCE

Let the subtle lemon-lime goodness of 7-Up give a special flavor-
bouquet to your cranberry sauce.

2 cups 7-Up
 1½ cups water
2 inch stick cinnamon
2 whole cloves
¼ tsp. salt
1 lb. cranberries

Boil all ingredients, except cranberries, in a saucepan for 5 minutes.

Add cranberries and cook uncovered very gently (without stirring)
until they are thick and clear. Skim, then pour into one large—or
several individual—molds which have been rinsed in cold water. Chill
until firm. Unmold to serve. Serves 10.

Note If you prefer a liquid sauce, cook the cranberries for 3-5
minutes until the skins pop, then chill and serve the sauce.

15
 For the Holidays!

This festive holiday punch will be the center of

attraction.

7-UP HOLIDAY PUNCH

1 quart milk
4 7-oz. bottles of chilled 7-Up
1 pint peppermint ice cream

Put semi-soft ice cream in punch bowl. Add milk and 7-Up. Stir until
ice cream floats in small pieces throughout. Garnish with maraschino
cherries and mint leaves, if desired. Serves 12.

7-UP HOLIDAY SALAD

1 pint cranberries
 ½ cup water
½ cup sugar
1 package lemon gelatin
1 cup hot water
1 cup 7-Up
¼ tsp. salt
1 cup chopped celery
1 cup chopped apple
1 cup chopped nuts

Boil cranberries in ½ cup cold water; then sieve. Add sugar and heat
to dissolve sugar; then cool. Dissolve gelatin in hot water; cool
slightly and add 7-Up; then chill. When partly thickened, add
cranberry mixture, salt, apples, celery, and nuts. Chill until firm;
serve on lettuce with mayonnaise.

16
 Makes Pastries Taste Better!

7-UP CAKE
Make a cake with contents of package mix using 7-Up instead of the
liquid in the recipe! White, yellow, spice, chocolate-malt ... all
flavors. You’ll be amazed at how light and airy your cake is.

7-UP ICING
2 egg whites
1 cup granulated sugar
3 tbsp. (1¼ oz.) 7-Up
¼ tbsp. cream of tartar

Put all ingredients in the top of a double boiler over boiling water.
Upper pan should not touch surface of water. Beat with rotary beater
(hand or electric) until stiff enough to stand in peaks (about 5
minutes).

7-UP PIE CRUST

1 cup sifted flour
½ tsp. salt
¼—⅓ cup shortening
3 tbsp. chilled 7-Up (about)
Measure flour and salt into bowl. Cut in shortening with a pastry
blender or fork until particles are size of small peas. Add 7-Up
gradually, a few drops at a time, tossing with a fork to distribute
evenly. Press into ball; allow to rest 15 minutes. Roll out on a lightly
floured surface into a circle ⅛″ thick. Fit into a 9″ pie plate. Trim ½″
from edge of pie plate. Fold this under and flute.

Prick pastry with a fork. Bake in a hot oven (425°) about 15

minutes. Cool and fill.

Special Hint ... If you prefer to use a prepared pie crust mix,
add chilled 7-Up instead of water. The crust will be light and
deliciously flaky.

17
 Some Handy Hints!
When baking a fruit pie (apple, berry, peach, cherry, or pineapple)
sprinkle four (4) tablespoons of 7-Up over the fruit filling before
putting on the top crust. The lemon-lime piquancy of 7-Up brings
out the flavor of the fruit; the added moisture assures a nice plump
pie.

For a special party touch, prepare 7-Up “icebergs” for your punch
bowl. Fill a refrigerator tray with 7-Up. Freeze to mush, then place a
strip of cardboard in the tray to make two blocks. Freeze until hard.
Then decorate blocks with lemon slices, cherries, or mint. Float 7-Up
“icebergs” in the punch; the melting “icebergs” don’t dilute the
punch.

Dried fruits are delicious when cooked in 7-Up. Combine one pound
of dried fruits and two seven-ounce bottles of 7-Up in a sauce pan.
Cover and simmer until tender. Add sugar if needed.

Add 7-Up to your meat gravies for a fresh and zesty flavor. The
gravy will be clear and greaseless—it will not require thickening with
flour unless so desired.

•
Give canned fruit cocktail a special “zip”. Drain the juices from the
fruit cocktail, then add 7-Up.

Mix chilled 7-Up and cold milk in equal parts by pouring 7-Up gently
into the milk. Do not stir. The addition of 7-Up gives the milk (white
or chocolate) a new flavor appeal especially pleasing to children.

18
 At Home ... Anywhere!

Seven-Up is at home anywhere! You can use it in cooking ... serve it

at parties ... or enjoy it any time of day when you need a refreshing
lift. And now, more and more women are serving 7-Up with food ...
making it a part of mealtime and party menus.

So, bring a touch of “pure pleasure” to your meals. Make every meal
a picnic ... serve your family and guests 7-Up. You can get it
everywhere, you know ... drug stores ... restaurants ... drive-ins ...
all across America.
enjoy 7up with your next meal
at Home ... Anywhere!

19
the all-family drink!
... a real thirst-quencher

... a fresh, clean taste

... a quick, refreshing lift

Nothing does it like Seven-Up!

 © 1957 BY THE SEVEN-UP CO.
ST LOUIS, MO LITHO IN U.S.A.
 Transcriber’s Notes
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