Power Reliability

Getachew Biru (Dr.-Ing)

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Objectives

• Understand the concepts of Reliability, Availability and

Unavailability
• Know the definition of reliability and the factors
associated with it.
• Know the techniques for reliability analysis.
• Understand the failure and reliability curves as a factor
of time.
• Understand Markov Reliability Model
• Understand Customer based Reliability Indies

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Basic Reliability Terms
• Failure - A failure is an event when an item is not
available to perform its function at specified conditions
when scheduled or is not capable of performing
functions to specification.
• Failure Rate - The number of failures per unit of gross
operating period in terms of time, events, cycles.
• MTBF - Mean Time Between Failures - The average
time between failure occurrences. The number of
items and their operating time divided by the total
number of failures. Used for repairable equipment.
• MTTF - Mean Time To Failure - The average time to
failure occurrence. Used for unrepairable equipment.
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Basic Reliability Terms

• MTTR - Mean Time To Repair - The average time to

restore the item to specified conditions.
• Availability - A measure of the time that a system is
actually operating versus the time that the system was
planned to operate.

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Basic Concept

• Reliability: is the probability that the

system will perform its intended function
under specified working condition for a
specified period of time.

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Basic Concept
Reliability
• Reliability is the analysis of failures, their
causes and consequences.
• It is the most important characteristic of
product quality as things have to be
working satisfactorily before considering
other quality attributes.

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Basic Concepts
• Quantitatively, reliability is expressed as a
mathematical function of time:
• R(t) = Probability that the system still
works correctly at time t.
• Reliability is a real number between 0 and
1; that is, at any time 0 ≤ R(t) ≤ 1.

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Basic Concepts
• Markov Model

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Basic Concepts
Failure rate over the life of a product
• Bathtub Curve

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Basic Concepts
• Failure rate is defined as the number of expected
failures per unit in a given time interval.

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Basic Concepts
• System Reliability Evaluation

UP
MTTR
MTBF
MTTF
DOWN
t

𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹
𝐴=
𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 + 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝑅

𝑀𝑇𝑇𝑅
U=
𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹+𝑀𝑇𝑇𝑅
Basic Concepts
• Availability
𝜇
𝐴=
+𝜇

MTTF=MTBF=m
MTTR=r
Basic Concepts
• Unavailability

U=
+𝜇
Exponential Law of Reliability
• A Typical Reliability Function
• Consider a fixed number of identical components, No, under test.
• N (t) is number of components have survived.
𝑁(𝑡)
• Reliability of the system R(t)=
𝑁𝑜

•  = failure rate (failures/second)

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Exponential Law of Reliability
• A Typical Reliability Function
• Consider  failure rate (failures/second) is constant.
• Consider a fixed number of identical components, No, under test.
• N (t) is number of components that have survived after time t.
𝑁(𝑡)
• Reliability of the system R(t)=
𝑁𝑜

𝑑𝑁
= −
𝑁 𝑑𝑁
𝑁 𝑑𝑡
‫= 𝑁 𝑜𝑁׬‬-‫ ׬‬ 𝑑𝑡
ln (N)=-  𝑡

R = e-t 15
Exponential Law of Reliability
• The failure rate for N identical elemnts in a system
𝑑𝑁
• λ= −
𝑁 𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑁
• For constant λ, = -λ dt
𝑁
𝑁 𝑑𝑁 𝑡𝑁
• Integrating it ‫= 𝑜𝑁׬‬-‫׬‬0 −λ dt
𝑁
𝑁
• ln N=-λ 𝑡 =ln ( )=-λ 𝑡
𝑁𝑜
𝑁
• ( )=e -λ 𝑡 = R(t)
𝑁𝑜
• R(t)+Q(t)=1
• Q(t) unreliability

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Exponential Law of Reliability
• A Typical Reliability Function

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Exponential Law of Reliability
• MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURES: MTBF is the
average time elapsed before a failure occurs
∞ ∞ −𝑡 1
• 𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 = ‫׬‬0 𝑅(𝑡) dt=‫׬‬0 𝑒 dt=


• This mean time between failures turns out to be the

reciprocal of the failure rate .
Exponential Law of Reliability
• Exc. On Reliability
• Ten thousand new oil circuit reclosers (OCRs) are put in
service. They have a constant failure rate of 0.1 per year. How
many units of the original 10,000 will still be in service after 10
years? How many of the original will fail in Year 10?

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Basic Reliability Analysis
• Systems are consisting of many elements
with their own failure rate and repair time
connected in series, or parallel and in
combined connection in terms of reliability.
Basic Reliability Analysis
• For series system

A B C

Rs = RA * RB * RC

Rs = R1 * R2 * R3 * ... ... Rn
= e-1t * e-2t * e-3t * … * e-nt
 =  + + 
s 1 2 ... ... n
where i is the failure rate of the ith system
Basic Reliability Analysis
• F or parallel system
A

Qs = Q1 * Q2 ...* … Qn
C

Rtot = 1- (1- RA ) * (1 - RB) * (1 - RC)

Rp = 1 - (1 - R1 ) * (1 - R2 ) * (1 - R3) ...* …(1 - Rn)

=1- Q1 * Q2 * Q3 ...* … Qn
where Qi = (1 - Ri) is the failure probability of the ith system
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Basic Reliability Analysis
• For parallel series system
A
C
B

Rtot = RC* [ 1- (1- RA) * (1 - RB) ]

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Basic Reliability Analysis
• For series parallel system

A B

Rtot = 1 - (1- RA* RB ) * (1 - RC)

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Basic Reliability Analysis
• For series system
Rs= R1•R2
As= A1•A2
𝑖 =  1 +  2
rs
U s=
𝑚s+rs

1 1 1
= +
ms m1 m2

σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑟i•𝑖
𝑟𝑠 =
σ𝑛𝑖=1 i

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Basic Reliability Analysis
• For parallel system

Qs= Q1•Q2
Us= U1•U2
1 1 1 𝑟2+𝑟1
= + =
rs 𝑟1 𝑟2 𝑟 1∗ 𝑟 2

ς𝑛 ς 𝑛
𝑟𝑠 𝑟1 𝑟2 1 𝑖 𝑖 𝞴𝑖
𝑟
𝑈𝑠 = = =
𝑟𝑠 𝑚 𝑠 𝑟1+𝑚1 𝑟2 𝑚2 1+σ𝑛
1 𝑟𝑖 𝞴 𝑖
+ +

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Basic Reliability Analysis
• For parallel system
Qs= Q1•Q2
Us= U1•U2
1 1 1
= +
rs 𝑟1 𝑟2

1 + σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑟i•𝑖
𝑚𝑠 = 𝑛
ς𝑖=1 𝑖 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑟i

ς𝑛𝑖=1 𝑖 ς𝑛𝑖=1 𝑟𝑖
𝑈𝑠 =
1 + σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑖𝑟i

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Basic Reliability Analysis
Example:
Three generators are connected in parallel with
CB H2 and Isolator H3. Calculate the system reliability
RA=0.9
RB=0.9
RC=0.9
RH1=0.85
C RH1=0.85

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Basic Reliability Analysis
Exercise For parallel system
A distribution SS consists of a transformer, a CB and a Cable
of length 0.1 km. To increase the reliability of the system the
same elements are connected in parallel. The equipments
reliability data is given as follows:
Equipment Failure rate/year Repair time (hr)
Transformer 2 30
CB 1 50
Cable 3/km 20

Calculate: the system repair time, unavailability and

availability of the system.

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Basic Reliability Analysis
Simple radial system
Distribution System Reliability
• Design for reliability
• Keep It Simple!

• Design Margin - Assure adequate strength of all

mechanical and electrical parts, including allowance for
unusual loads due to environmental extremes.

• Redundancy - Provide alternative means of

accomplishing required functions where design for
excess strength is not suitable / reasonable.

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Distribution System Reliability
POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY
• The basic function of an electric power
system is to supply consumers with
electricity.
• Modern society demands that electrical
energy should be as economical as
possible with reasonable degree of
continuity and quality.

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Distribution System Reliability
POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY
• The continuity of energy supply can be
increased by
– improved system structure,
– Effective and efficient Operation.
It is evident therefore that the reliability and
economic constraints are related.

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Distribution System Reliability
• The Fig. shows that the system cost will generally
increase with higher investment cost in equipment &
facilities which provide higher reliability. On the other
hand, the customer interruption costs due to higher
reliability will decrease. The total cost to society is the
sum of these two costs. There is a minimum point in the
resulting total cost curve which indicates the optimal
target level of reliability.

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Distribution System Reliability
The majority of customer reliability problems
stem from distribution systems.
• 85% of power interruption is due to
distribution system outages (poles and wires,
cables, switchgear, etc.);
• 9% from substations;
• 4% from transmission; and
• 2% is caused by generation.

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Distribution System Reliability
Outages can be:
• Momentary interruption-when a customer
is deenergized for less than 5 minutes
(IEEE).
• Sustained interruption-when a customer is
deenergized for more than a few minutes.

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Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree
• The fault tree itself is a graphic model of the
various parallel and sequential combinations of
faults that will result in the occurrence of the
predefined undesired event.
• A fault tree thus depicts the logical
interrelationships of basic events that lead to
the undesired event-which is the top event of
the fault tree

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Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree
• The construction of the Fault Tree always starts
from the TOP event. Those fault events that are
the immediate, necessary, and sufficient
causes should be carefully identified and
connected to the TOP event through a logic
gate.
• A fault tree is tailored to a particular failure of
interest. The failure of interest is called the Top
Event.

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Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree
• Gates: the two most commonly used gates in a
fault tree are the AND and OR gates.
• AND-gate: The AND-gate indicates that the
output event occurs only if all the input faults
occur at the same time.

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Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree
• OR-gate : The OR-gate indicates that the
output event occurs only if one or more of the
input events occur.

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Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree
FAULT TREE CONSTRUCTION
• Figure 1 shows a protective system consisting
of a circuit breaker, a ct, a relay, a battery, and
associated control wiring.

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Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree
• Construction of Fault Tree

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Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree
FAULT TREE CONSTRUCTION
• Let us improve the system by adding a
redundant relay. The fault tree of Figure 2
contains an AND gate.
• This AND gate expresses the idea that both
protective relays must fail for the event “Relays
Fail to Trip” to occur.

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Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree

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Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree

Web infrastructure

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Reliability Analysis of Fault Tree

Web infrastructure

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Distribution Reliability Indices
• Utilities typically keep track of customer
reliability by using reliability indices. These
are average customer reliability values for
a specific area.
• This area can be the utility’s entire service
area, a particular geographic region, a
substation service area, a feeder service
area, and so on.
• The most commonly used reliability
indices give each customer equal weight. 47
Distribution Reliability Indices
Reliability indices typically consider such
aspects as :
• The number of customers;
• The connected load;
• The duration of the interruption
measured in seconds, minutes, hours, or
days;
• The amount of power (kVA) interrupted;
and
• The frequency of interruptions.
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Distribution Reliability Indices
• In order to quantify the effects of long
interruption, interruption indices are defined as
Interruption Frequency and Interruption
Duration.
• Interruption frequency represents the number of
interruptions on average per year per customer.
• Interruption duration is the average duration of
customer interruptions.

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Distribution Reliability Indices
• System Average Interruption Duration Index
(SAIDI): It is commonly referred to as customer
minutes of interruption or customer hours, and
is designed to provide information as to the
average time the customers are interrupted.
Sum of customer interruption durations
• SAIDI = =
Total number of customers served
σi 𝑟i N i
𝑁𝑇
• Where: ri is the outage time for each
interruption event.
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Distribution Reliability Indices
System Average Interruption Frequency
Index (SAIFI):It is the average frequency of
sustained interruptions per customer over a
predefined area. It is the total number of
customer interruptions divided by the total
number of customers served
Total number of customer interruptions
SAIFI =
Total number of customers served
σ i  i Ni
=
𝑁𝑇
Where: i is the failure rate at load point i and Ni is the number of
interrupted customers for each interruption event during the reporting
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period at load point i. NT is the total no of customers served for the area.
Distribution Reliability Indices
• Customer Average Interruption Duration Index
(CAIDI): It is the average time needed to
restore service to the average customer per
sustained interruption. It is the sum of customer
interruption durations divided by the total
number of customer interruptions.
Sum of customer interruption durations
• CAIDI = =
Total number of customers interruptions
σi ri Ni SAIDI
σi i Ni
=
SAIFI

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Distribution Reliability Indices
• Average Service Availability Index (ASAI): This
index represents the fraction of time (often in
percentage) that a customer has power
provided during one year or the defined
reporting period.
Customer hours of available service
• ASAI = =
Customer hours demanded
σi Ni x8760−σi ri Ni
σi Ni x8760

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Distribution Reliability Indices
Average Service Unavailability Index (ASUI):
This index is the complementary value to the
average service availability index (ASAI).
Customer hours of unavailable service
• ASUI = =
Customer hours demanded
σi ri Ni
σi Ni x8760

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Distribution Reliability Indices
Energy Not Supplied Index (ENS): This index
represents the total energy not supplied by
the system.
ENS = ෍ La i ri
i
Where: La(i) is the average load given by:
Ed(i)
La(i) = Lp(i) LF(i) =
t
Lp is the peak load demand, LF is the load factor,
Ed is the total energy demanded in the period of
interest t. 55
Distribution Reliability Indices
Average Energy Not Supplied Index (AENS):
This index represents the average energy not
supplied by the system.
Total energy not supplied
AENS =
Total number of customers served
σi La(i) ri
=
𝑁𝑇

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Distribution Reliability Indices
Average Customer Curtailment Index (ACCI):
This index represents the total energy not
supplied per affected customer by the system.

Total energy not supplied σi La(i) ri

• ACCI = = σi N o
Total number of customers affected

• Where: La(i) is the average load, No is the

number of customers affected.

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Distribution Reliability Indices
Average Load Interruption Frequency Index
(ALIFI): This factor is analogous to the System
Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI)
and describes the interruptions on the basis of
connected load (kVA) served during the year by
the distribution system.
m
Total load interruption Li
ALIFI = =෍
Total connected load L
i=1
Where: m is number of interruptions in a subdivision of the
network (feeder, substation, operating district, etc.) for a given
time period, L is total connected load (kVA) in subdivision, Li is
total connected load (kVA) interrupted by ith interruption. 58
Distribution Reliability Indices
LOLP Loss of Load Probability: The probability
that the total production in system cannot meet the load
demand. The number of hours in a year when
production can not satisfy daily peak consumption;

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Reliability Data

Country SAIFI SAIDI

Int. /customer/Year Hrs. /customer/Year
German 0.5 0.383
Italy 2.2 0.967
Netherlands 0.3 0.55
Spain 2.2 1.73
Ethiopia 20 25
Addis Center 120 43.8
Adama City 176 141
Jimma City 321 184

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Impact of Station Arrangement on Reliability
• The feeder and CB arrangement has an impact
on the reliability of the system.

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Station Arrangement
Radial feeder arrangement
• Fig. shows the single-line diagram of a
simplified single bus arrangement. It is the
simplest arrangement with the worst reliability
indexes. In the arrangement shown, the
maintenance of breakers has to be undertaken
with the outgoing line disconnected, and thus
the load experiences a long service interruption.

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Station Arrangement

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Planning and Design Considerations
Parallel feeders

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Feeder Switching Arrangement

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Looped Feeder Switching Arrangement

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Planning and Design Considerations
Network System

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Network Feeder Switching Arrangement

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Network Feeder Switching Arrangement

The planning approach for

the Reliability Analysis of
Distribution

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Economics of Reliability
Outage costs are generally divided between
• utility outage costs and
• customer outage costs.

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Economics of Reliability
Utility outage costs include the
• loss of revenue for energy not supplied, and
• the increased maintenance and repair costs to
restore power to the customers affected.
The maintenance and repair costs can be
quantified as
𝑛

𝐶𝑚&𝑟 = ෍ 𝐶𝑖 + 𝐶𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝
𝑖
Where: Ci is the labor cost for each repair and
maintenance action, and Ccompis the component
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replacement or repair cost.

Economics of Reliability
The total utility cost for an outage is:

Cout = ENS x(cost/kWh) + Cm&𝑟

Where: ENS is the Energy Not Supplied.

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Economics of Reliability
• While the outage costs to the utility can be
significant, often the costs to the customer are
far greater. These costs vary greatly by
customer type.
• In general, customer outage costs are more
difficult to quantify
• The customer outage cost by sector is:
n

COSTi = ෍ ICi X Li
i=1
Where: Li is the energy demand for load point i.
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IC is the interruption cost for the load point.
Assignment
1. Derive for series system an expression of a)
system mean time to repair ms and b) system
repair time rs for a system containing
individual components with respect to
individual repair time ri and failure rate λi.
2. Derive for parallel system an expression of a)
system unavailability Us and b) system mean
time to repair ms for a system containing
individual components with respect to
individual repair time ri and failure rate λi.
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Exercise
3. A substation consists of an overhead (OL) line
and underground cable and two terminations
of the cable. The failure rates for OL, cable
and each termination are 0.6 faults/year, 0.1
faults/year and 0.06 faults/year respectively.
The repair time for OL, cable and each
termination are 3 hrs, 1 hr and and 3 hrs per
year respectively. Calculate the system failure
rate, the system repair time and the
unavailability of the system.

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Exercise
4. A substation is supplying the following
customers with the following reliability records for
a give duration of time.
Feeder No. of Av. Load Duration of No. of Cut. Load Int, in
customers connected/ Int./Hrs Int. /kW
kw

1 250 2300 2 250 2300

2 300 3700 3 200 2500
3 200 2500 1 250 1600
4 250 1600 1 250 1600

Calculate: SAIFI, SAIDI, ASAI, ASIDI, ENS,

AENS

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References

1. Turan Gonen, Electrical Power Distribution System Engineering, CRC Press, 2008.
2. Surya Santoso, Mark F. McGranaghan, Roger C. Dugan, POWER QUALITY AND RELIABILITY, 2006
3. Alexander Kusko, T. Thompson,. Power Quality in Electrical Systems, Mc Graw Hill, 2007.
4. Surya Santoso, Mark F. McGranaghan, Roger C. Dugan, POWER QUALITY AND RELIABILITY, 2006

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