Technological Forecasting & Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technological Forecasting & Social Change

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/techfore

Modeling the effects of artificial intelligence (AI)-based innovation on

sustainable development goals (SDGs): Applying a system dynamics
perspective in a cross-country setting
Sharmin Nahar
Lancaster University Management School (LUMS), Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4YX, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Global environmental outcomes, productivity, inclusion, and equality aspects are already beginning to be
System dynamics impacted by artificial intelligence (AI), both immediately and over time. AI is expected to have both beneficial
Artificial intelligence (AI) and detrimental effects on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Nevertheless, there is a lacuna in the liter­
Innovation
ature regarding systematically forecasting `AI’s impact on different facets of SDGs over time in various countries.
Sustainable development goals (SDGs)
Cross-country study
Moreover, though existing literature has reported a correlation between AI and innovation, no prior studies have
Institutional theory forecast the influence of AI-based innovation on SDG Outcomes. To fill these significant research gaps, this study
Technology enactment framework forecasts the impact of AI-based innovation on achieving SDGs over nine years, extending from 2022 to 2030 in
22 countries (including both developed and developing countries) across five continents via system dynamics
modeling-based simulation and grounded in Institutional Theory (Technology Enactment Framework). The
findings exhibit varying impacts on different SDGs. This study enriches the AI, innovation, and sustainable
development literature by providing forecasts of the intricate relationship between AI, innovation, and SDGs,
thereby offering valuable insights to the reader.

1. Introduction continuous improvements in science and technology, producing a dra­

matic shift in human civilization (Johnson et al., 2022). It is, practically,
It is a premise of contemporary economics that the development of hard to block the development of increasingly powerful AI technology
new technologies is driven by a desire to improve the lives of in­ due to people’s hunger for positive advances.1 Concurrently, many are
dividuals. However, human progress has resulted in environmental anxious about the possibility of expanding wealth gaps and hastening
deterioration, social inequity, resource depletion, disputes, and even the death of our civilization (Lee et al., 2022). These scenarios are
international wars since the beginning of the industrial revolution. For referred to as a dilemma or a trilemma. People have either balanced or
these reasons, the United Nations (UN) and other international organi­ polarized attitudes to these concerns, much like other concerns, such as
zations have long advocated for the concept of ‘sustainable develop­ climate change, where the trend is visible and unavoidable.
ment,’ seeing it as a framework for achieving human progress that As a result, academic researchers have revived their interest in AI
strikes a good balance between economic, environmental, and social over the last 50 years (Di Vaio et al., 2020). AI is anticipated to impact
concerns. Artificial intelligence (AI) is currently being widely used with significantly on global environmental outcomes, productivity, inclusion,

E-mail address: [email protected].

1
For instance, AI can optimize energy systems, improve efficiency and reduce waste, enabling sustainable development. It can also help to predict natural disasters,
optimize agriculture, and manage water resources more efficiently, reducing the negative impact on the environment. Additionally, AI can facilitate the development
of sustainable products and services, promoting a circular economy (Johnson et al., 2022).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.123203
Received 14 December 2022; Received in revised form 29 December 2023; Accepted 29 December 2023
Available online 17 January 2024
0040-1625/© 2024 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

and equality. AI’s effects on sustainable development2 have been mixed Since SDG9 represents innovation, this research also explores the
(Lammers et al., 2022). However, no prior published study systemati­ interaction between SDG9 and the rest of the SDGs separately. This is
cally predicts the extent to which AI may influence each facet of Sus­ also a unique contribution of this study as it explores the complex
tainable Development Goals (SDGs) over time in different developed and interaction between SDG9 and the rest of the SDGs. It should also be
developing countries.3 This indicates a crucial research gap, as anec­ noted that this study categorizes the 17 SDGs by the three pillars of
dotal evidence indicates that AI might impact on the capacity to achieve sustainable development: social,7 economic,8 and environmental,9
each SDG (Leal Filho et al., 2022). Therefore, a comparative analysis following Ranjbari et al. (2021).
would contribute to the extant literature by providing empirical evi­ Although each construct of this research has been studied separately
dence on the impact of AI-based innovation on SDGs in different in the past, studying their interaction is novel because it presents a fresh
developed and developing countries and identifying the factors that perspective on the impact of AI-based innovation on SDGs, which has
influence that impact. not been explored in the existing literature. This novel approach is
Moreover, although existing literature has reported a correlation grounded in the Technology Enactment Framework (TEF), which orig­
between AI and innovation (Pietronudo et al., 2022), and between inated in Institutional Theory (Fountain, 2001). TEF examines how
innovation and SDGs (Abbasi et al., 2022), no prior studies have forecast institutional, organizational, technical, and situational variables impact
the influence of AI-based innovation on SDG outcomes in cross-country on SDG attainment across countries, and this framework is used to
settings. Therefore, a critical research gap exists in this area. To address explore the impact of particular institutional arrangements and orga­
this critical research gap, this study investigates the following research nizational structures on the characteristics of the technology. By
question grounded in Institutional Theory (Technology Enactment extending TEF to demonstrate the coexistence of AI and innovation in
Framework)4: accomplishing SDGs, the paper adds a new perspective to the existing
What is the impact of AI-based innovation5 on achieving SDGs over literature. Furthermore, the paper combines institutional theory and
time in developed and developing nations? system dynamics to better understand the complex interaction between
To answer this research question, this study examined how AI-based AI, innovation, and SDGs. Thus, the study’s contribution lies in
innovation can either catalyze or impede the achievement of each of the providing a theoretical framework that integrates institutional theory
17 SDGs outlined in the 2030 Agenda. AI makes machines act intelli­ and system dynamics to analyze the interaction between AI, innovation,
gently (Di Vaio et al., 2020; McCarthy et al., 2006). Thus, AI is the ca­ and SDGs. Hence, this paper makes a significant contribution to the
pacity of a system to perform tasks smartly in ever-expanding regions extant literature on AI, Innovation, Sustainable Development, and Sys­
and over time (Berente et al., 2021), precisely construing external data tem Dynamics. Apart from these theoretical contributions, this study
and utilizing these lessons towards accomplishing certain aims through also provides valuable contributions to practitioners and policymakers
an agile setup (Kaplan and Haenlein, 2020). Therefore, the research as a planning tool and useful guideline.
question is answered from a system dynamics perspective6 (Forrester, The paper continues as follows. The following section examines the
1958; Forrester et al., 1976). existing literature concerning the overall research theme and the vari­
ables under consideration. The section that follows establishes the
research design before presenting the data analyses. The paper con­
2
In this study, I define sustainable development as per the 17 interconnected cludes with sections on the findings, conclusion, and possible future
SDGs from the United Nations (UN) and 169 targets internationally agreed research directions.
upon in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. These are ‘shared
blueprints for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the 2. Literature review and research framework
future.’ These 17 SDGs are: 1) No Poverty, 2) Zero Hunger, 3) Good Health and
Well-being, 4) Quality Education, 5) Gender Equality, 6) Clean Water and
2.1. Institutional theory as the theoretical framework
Sanitation, 7) Affordable and Clean Energy, 8) Decent Work and Economic
Growth, 9) Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, 10) Reduced Inequality, 11)
Sustainable Cities and Communities, 12) Responsible Consumption and Pro­
Researchers are starting to understand the intricate relationship with
duction, 13) Climate Action, 14) Life Below Water, 15) Life on Land, 16) Peace the social context across countries in which an AI-based innovation
and Justice Strong Institutions, 17) Partnerships to achieve these Goals (United environment is chosen, developed, implemented, and used (He et al.,
Nations, 2022a). 2022; Turró et al., 2014). According to this theory, social structures and
3
Anecdotal evidence shows that this influence may vary across different AI have a complicated and recursive relationship that makes the results
developed and developing countries due to differences in socio-economic con­ of AI unpredictable and uncertain. These studies assert that organiza­
ditions, institutional factors, and policy environments. Developed countries tional, social, and technological contexts affect AI (Munoko et al., 2020).
may benefit more from AI-based innovation due to their better infrastructure, One of these integrative approaches is institutional theory, which ac­
more advanced technology, and higher levels of education and research. knowledges the context in which artificial intelligence is embedded and
Developing countries may struggle to adopt and adapt AI technology due to
explains how various institutions and factors influence the choice,
limited resources and infrastructure, resulting in a potential widening of the
design, implementation, and use of AI in a cross-country context (Gar­
technology divide between developed and developing nations. Hence, a
comparative analysis is necessary to identify the factors that influence the
cía-Sánchez et al., 2020b).
impact of AI-based innovation on the achievement of SDGs in different devel­ Institutions have been conceptualized in various ways throughout
oped and developing countries (Mathiyazhagan et al., 2021).
4
The Technology Enactment Framework, based on institutional theory, ex­
amines institutions, organizations, and information technologies.
5 7
These AI-based Innovations include the Internet of Things (IoT), Augmented Social categories include: 4) Quality Education, 5) Gender Equality, 10)
Reality, Blockchain, Virtual Reality, 5G Communication Infrastructure, Digital Reduced Inequality, 11) Sustainable Cities and Communities, 16) Peace and
Twin, Big Data, Recommender, and Information Systems. Justice Strong Institutions, and 17) Partnerships to achieve these Goals (Ranj­
6
System dynamics is a methodology used to analyze complex systems, it bari et al., 2021).
8
involves the development of mathematical models that capture the dynamic Economic categories include: 1) No Poverty, 2) Zero Hunger, 3) Good
behavior of a system over time. It is particularly useful for studying systems Health and Well-being, 8) Decent Work and Economic Growth, and 9) Industry,
with feedback loops, delays, and non-linear relationships between variables Innovation and Infrastructure (Ranjbari et al., 2021).
9
(Forrester et al., 1976). In the context of this paper, system dynamics is used to Environmental categories include: 6) Clean Water and Sanitation, 7)
model the complex interactions and feedback loops between AI-based innova­ Affordable and Clean Energy, 12) Responsible Consumption and Production,
tion and SDGs in a cross-country setting, taking into account differences in 13) Climate Action, 14) Life Below Water, and 15) Life on Land (Ranjbari et al.,
social, economic, and political conditions. 2021).

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institutional theory’s evolution. They are regarded as guidelines for

human behavior or acceptable social conduct (Kabengele and Hahn,
2021). According to Struckell et al. (2022) and Aparicio et al. (2021),
institutions are viewed as behavioral rules based on a variety of signif­
icant foundations, including culture, social norms, mental models,
legislation, and political arrangements. These various foundations can
be summarized as cultural-cognitive, normative, and regulative pillars
that symbolize institutions in a cross-country context (Lehmann et al.,
2022).
In sustainable development discussions, institutions are crucial. Both
developed and developing nations require individuals and businesses to
protect the environment and society (Gerged and Almontaser, 2021).
This trend is supported by international treaties signed in the second
part of the 21st century. Conventions on human rights and working
conditions adopted by the UN and the International Labour Organiza­ Fig. 1. Technology Enactment Framework (Fountain, 2001).
tion (ILO) are two such examples. Ethical and sustainability issues
become more important as societal norms and values change (García- information system or systems). To be more precise, Enacted Technol­
Sánchez et al., 2020a). Thus, institutionalism explains why people and ogy in this paper is Innovation, which refers to the outcome of AI use
businesses behave socially responsibly, how different nations approach (Objective Technologies). In terms of effectiveness, efficiency, and
sustainable business growth, and how this approach evolves (Barba- transparency, this innovation (Enacted Technology) results in specific
Sánchez et al., 2019; Fritz et al., 2021). outcomes in achieving SDGs.
In this regard, SDGs culminate in many universally agreed-upon As mentioned earlier, Enacted technologies are affected by the
rules, principles, and guidelines intended for individuals, businesses, organizational forms which imply the context or social aspects of using
and normative institutional initiatives. Thus, formal and informal in­ AI (e.g., whether AI implementation is a bureaucratic/straightforward
stitutions will influence individuals’ and businesses’ involvement with process, the social capital12 in using AI). These Organizational Forms
sustainability themes like SDGs (Fritz et al., 2021; Gerged and Almon­ (the context of AI utilization) are catalyzed or hindered by institutional
taser, 2021). Modgil et al. (2020) argue that Institutional Theory arrangements in a country symbolized by laws, rules, and other cultural,
benchmarks individuals’ and firms’ competitive behavior to achieve cognitive, or socio-structural controls in this study.
SDGs in a cross-country context. However, the SDGs themselves may A literature review on each of the aforementioned constructs and
also be seen as an initiative taken by institutions. their interrelationship is conducted below:
The Technology Enactment Framework (TEF) is a conceptual
framework, based on Institutional Theory (Fountain, 1995, 2001), 2.1.1. Artificial intelligence (AI)
which explains how technology is implemented and used within orga­ Even though the study of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been going
nizations and across countries. According to the TEF, the implementa­ on for the last six decades, it is still challenging to come up with a
tion and use of technology are influenced by institutional structures, consensus on the definition of this ‘set of technologies.’ In fact, the term
bureaucratic hierarchies, social norms, and information technologies’ ‘AI’ refers to diverse technologies, for instance, robotics, deep learning,
convergence (Fountain, 2001). This framework’s underlying logic is that machine learning, speech recognition, image recognition, computer
‘objective technologies’ are transformed into ‘enacted technologies’ vision, natural language processing, and analytics that mimic human
through organizational and/or individual forms10 and institutional ar­ behavior, rather than a single technology or even a class of technologies
rangements.11 Similarly, the choice, design, and implementation of (Huang and Rust, 2018).
enacted technologies impact on organizational forms and institutional Huang and Rust (2018) claim that AI is a machine with intelligence.
structure in a cross-country setting (Mu et al., 2022). As a result, the Truong and Papagiannidis (2022) define AI as computer intelligence
technology enactment framework recognizes the recursive nature of the that mirrors cognitive abilities, including problem-solving. AI was
relationships between organizational, institutional, and enacted tech­ defined by Longoni et al. (2019) as any computer that utilizes any al­
nologies. Fig. 1 illustrates the Technology Enactment Framework (TEF) gorithm or numerical method to execute human-like cognitive,
(Fountain, 2001). perceptual, and conversational activities.
In the context of this paper, I have not considered the recursive na­ AI, in contrast to older manufacturing or information technologies, is
ture of organizational forms, institutional arrangements, and enacted able to learn from data, process data for human use, and update out­
technologies’ relationships. Rather, I have considered unidirectional comes without the need for programming or human involvement
relationships among the aforementioned factors. In this paper, Objective (Huang and Rust, 2018). For instance, AI researchers have created
Technologies are AI, associated hardware and software, and all the potent algorithms that can assist social scientists in overcoming the
features (potentials) that are not always utilized. For example, multiple difficulties associated with analyzing ‘big’ behavioral data, such as SDGs
hidden functionalities of AI are known and used by a limited number of (Leal Filho et al., 2022).
individuals. In contrast to all the features which could have been The above literature review shows that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a
included (Objective Technology), Enacted Technologies are those as­ rapidly evolving technology that has revolutionized how we live and
pects of AI that are actually in use (they are part of the current work. AI is the development of computer systems that can perform tasks
that would typically require human intelligence. AI has been at the
forefront of many innovative breakthroughs in recent years and has been
found to impact significantly on innovation in various industries
10
Structural dimensions such as centralization, formalization, communication (Truong and Papagiannidis, 2022).
channels, and organizational bureaucratic characteristics are examples of
organizational forms (Gil-Garcia, 2005).
11
Institutional arrangements shape users’ perceptions and behaviors towards
technology, including cognitive institutions, culture, socio-structure, and legal
12
norms. Cognitive institutions are mental routines and cognitive models that Social capital refers to the interconnected relationships among individuals
affect behavior and decision-making. Cultural institutions are characterized as within a particular group or society, which facilitate its effective functioning
shared symbols, such as stories or meanings (Fountain, 2001). (Akizu-Gardoki et al., 2018).

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2.1.2. AI and innovation implement and deliver change (United Nations, 2022a).
Innovation is crucial for the growth of businesses in today’s rapidly
changing world because innovation creates valuable products, services, 2.1.4. AI’s role in achieving SDGs through innovation
and processes. The innovation process typically consists of four stages: In accordance with the SDGs, AI-based innovation is currently being
1) concept discovery and creation; 2) filtering; 3) testing; and 4) used to address the world’s most significant issues. These powerful
refinement and commercialization of the winning idea (Truong and forces are bringing about change in both the business world and society
Papagiannidis, 2022). While humans have exceptional problem-solving by forming public-private partnerships that bring together a wide range
skills, AI has advanced to the point where it can do complex tasks, and it of specialized knowledge. AI is already being applied to all 17 SDGs
has the potential to streamline innovation by processing vast volumes of (GSMA, 2022). Specifically, AI promotes SDG9, which embraces three
data and information that innovators must navigate (Cockburn et al., essential attributes of sustainable development: infrastructure, indus­
2019). By automating tasks such as categorization, grouping, and pre­ trialization, and innovation.
diction, AI can help innovators focus on more mentally taxing but less
judgment-heavy support activities. This can reduce the time and money 2.1.4.1. AI in achieving the economic pillar of SDGs through innovation.
spent on processing data and enable innovators to spend more time on According to the technology enactment framework of institutional the­
creative problem-solving (Cockburn et al., 2019). ory, SDG9 (AI-based innovation) contributes to the success of the eco­
AI can also be used to improve the innovation process by providing nomic pillar of the SDGs (SDG1–3 and SDG8), which focuses on creating
insights and recommendations based on data analysis. AI, for instance, sustainable, inclusive, and equitable economic growth and development
can be used to analyze customer feedback and determine areas of a (Mathiyazhagan et al., 2021). For instance, AI-based innovation (such as
product or service that might benefit from being improved. According to digital financial services) stimulates economic growth, creates employ­
Haefner et al. (2021), this can assist innovators in refining their ideas ment opportunities (SDG8), and reduces poverty (SDG1) in cross-
and developing products and services that more effectively meet the country settings, as indicated by several prior studies. First, AI (objec­
needs of customers. tive information technology) will boost global GDP by 14 % to $15.7
AI can also enhance collaboration among innovators. By providing trillion in 2030, more than China and India combined (World Economic
real-time insights and data analysis, AI can help team members stay Forum, 2023). AI could generate between $3.5 and $5.8 trillion in
informed and make more informed decisions. This can lead to better annual value across various industries. This increased value can be
communication and collaboration among team members, which can attributed to AI’s ability to automate repetitive tasks, optimize pro­
help to speed up the innovation process (Cockburn et al., 2019). cesses, and improve decision-making (Truong and Papagiannidis, 2022).
Despite the above positive impact of AI on innovation, it also poses Secondly, AI-based innovation (enacted technology) can lead to job
some challenges for innovation. For instance, while AI has advanced to creation and upskilling. Contrary to the popular belief that AI will lead
the point where it can do complex tasks, it is still largely utilized for to massive job displacement, several studies have suggested that AI-
niche applications that need careful human oversight. Humans are still based innovation can create new jobs and increase demand for skilled
needed as the source of fresh ideas and innovations, as creativity and labor. For instance, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) estimates that AI
problem-solving skills are not easily replicated by AI (Amabile, 2020). could create approximately 7.2 million new UK jobs by 2037 (Kollewe,
By leveraging AI’s strengths and addressing the aforementioned con­ 2023). Moreover, AI can also facilitate upskilling and reskilling of the
cerns, innovators can use AI to drive innovation and create valuable workforce by providing personalized training and learning opportu­
products, services, and processes. nities in different countries (Kollewe, 2023). Thirdly, AI-based innova­
tion can promote inclusive economic growth by reducing inequalities
2.1.3. Sustainable development goals (SDGs) and improving access to services. For instance, AI can improve access to
Fifty years of discussion and agreement on sustainable development financial services by automating credit scoring and underwriting pro­
led to SDGs. To help move the world onto a more sustainable and cesses, thus reducing bias and improving financial inclusion. Addition­
resilient path, global leaders at the UN Sustainable Development Sum­ ally, SDG9 (such as innovative food storage and preservation strategies,
mit in 2015 endorsed the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, sustainable crop production, and sustainable livestock farming) facili­
which they call ‘a plan of action for people, planet, and prosperity.’ This tates the achievement of SDG2 (Zero Hunger by 2030). In addition,
universal, integrated, and transformative agenda is based on 17 SDGs, SDG9 (e.g., innovative health technologies) is indispensable for
169 targets, and 232 indicators (United Nations, 2022a). Fig. 2 depicts improving health and lowering infant, maternal, and adult mortality
all 17 SDGs organized into three pillars: environmental, social, and rates (SDG3) (United Nations, 2022c). Consequently, the following is
economic. hypothesized:
The new SDGs framework, which is more ambitious than the Mil­
H1. AI-based innovation (SDG9) positively influences the SDGs’ eco­
lennium Development Goals (MDGs), includes bolder goals, such as the
nomic pillar13 (i.e., SDG1-3 and SDG8).
end of poverty (SDG1), zero hunger (SDG2), good health and well-being
for all (SDG3), quality education (SDG4), gender equality (SDG5), clean
water and sanitation (SDG6), access to affordable, sustainable, and clean 2.1.4.2. AI in achieving the social pillar of SDGs through innovation. Ac­
energy (SDG7), decent work and economic growth (SDG8), industry, cording to the technology enactment framework of institutional theory,
innovation and infrastructure (SDG9), reduced inequalities (SDG10), SDG9 (AI-based Innovation) also contributes to the success of the SDGs’
sustainable cities and communities (SDG11), responsible consumption social pillar (SDG4-5, SDG10-11, and SDG16-17) in cross-country set­
and production (SDG12), actions to combat climate change (SDG13), tings (Mathiyazhagan et al., 2021). For instance, AI-based innovation
protecting and promoting sustainability for life below water (SDG14), can positively influence SDG4 by making education more accessible,
protecting life on land (SDG15), peace, justice and strong institutions personalized, and inclusive. With online learning platforms, adaptive
(SDG16), and revitalizing the global partnership for sustainable devel­ learning systems, and intelligent tutoring systems, AI-powered tech­
opment (SDG17) (United Nations, 2022a). The SDGs balance economic, nologies (objective technology) can cater to the diverse needs of learners
social, and environmental sustainability. They are unique in requiring and provide personalized assessments, feedback, and real-time learning.
all nations and their citizens to reduce inequalities. National govern­ This innovation also enables inclusive and equitable education,
ments, transnational companies, and civil society can end poverty,
promote economic growth, and address social and environmental needs
through the Goals. The 2030 Agenda also encourages private sector and 13
The four associated sub-hypotheses are provided in Table 18 in the
partnership involvement to help governments use all the tools needed to Appendix.

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Fig. 2. 17 SDGs grouped into three pillars (triple bottom line): environmental, social, and economic (adapted from United Nations, 2022a).

supporting learners with disabilities and providing education access to urban residents, while reducing the environmental impact. Further­
remote and underserved areas (Lammers et al., 2022). AI-based inno­ more, AI-based innovation can support disaster response and manage­
vation (enacted technology) can also support professional development ment, ensuring the resilience of urban areas (Lammers et al., 2022).
for educators, provide personalized training and mentoring, and analyze Overall, AI-based innovation can contribute to creating sustainable and
data to identify learning gaps and opportunities for improvement in inclusive cities, supporting the achievement of SDG11.
different countries (United Nations, 2022d). In conclusion, AI-based AI-based innovation can also positively influence SDG16, which aims
innovation can enhance the quality of education and support to promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development,
evidence-based decision-making, contributing positively to SDG4. provide access to justice for all, and build effective, accountable, and
AI-based innovation can also positively influence SDG5, which aims inclusive institutions at all levels. Through AI-powered data analysis and
to achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls. Through decision-making, AI-based innovation can help to promote trans­
safety apps, online campaigns, sensor-laden smart dresses, and AI- parency, accountability, and good governance, supporting the estab­
powered diversity and inclusion tracking platforms, AI-based innova­ lishment of effective and inclusive institutions (García-Sánchez et al.,
tion can enhance women’s safety, promote their rights, and advance 2020a). By analyzing data on crime and security, AI-based technologies
gender equality (United Nations, 2022c). AI-powered technologies can can also support crime prevention and improve public safety, promoting
also provide insights into gender-based biases and discrimination, peaceful societies. Furthermore, AI-based innovation can also support
helping policymakers develop evidence-based policies to tackle these conflict resolution and reconciliation efforts by analyzing social media
issues. By reducing the gender gap in access to technology, AI-based data and other sources of information (Gerged and Almontaser, 2021).
innovation can facilitate women’s participation in the digital economy Overall, AI-based innovation can promote peace, justice, and inclusive
and improve their economic opportunities (de Sousa Jabbour et al., institutions, supporting the achievement of SDG16.
2020). Overall, AI-based innovation can promote gender equality and AI-based innovation can also positively influence SDG17, which aims
women’s empowerment, contributing positively to SDG5. to strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global
AI-based innovation can also positively influence SDG10, which aims partnership for sustainable development. Through virtual meeting
to reduce inequalities within and among countries. AI-based innovation platforms, AI-based decision-making for partnering, and other AI-
can help to narrow the digital divide and promote social and economic powered technologies, AI-based innovation can facilitate public-
inclusion by facilitating access to technologies and knowledge for private partnerships that mobilize all available resources for sustain­
disadvantaged segments of society. AI-powered technologies can also able development by bringing together the Government, private sector,
provide personalized services and solutions, improving access to and civil society (Abbasi et al., 2022). By optimizing resource allocation
healthcare, education, and other essential services for marginalized and enhancing collaboration between different sectors, AI-based tech­
communities (Cosenz et al., 2020). By analyzing data, AI-based inno­ nologies can also improve the effectiveness and efficiency of develop­
vation can also help to identify and address inequalities in different mental cooperation. Furthermore, AI-based innovation can provide
domains, such as income, education, and health. In addition, AI-based insights into the impact of different policies and interventions, enabling
innovation reduces inequality within and between nations, commu­ evidence-based decision-making for sustainable development (García-
nities, and populations by facilitating access to technologies and Sánchez et al., 2020a). Overall, AI-based innovation can contribute to
knowledge for disadvantaged segments of society (SDG10) (Fritz et al., revitalizing the global partnership for sustainable development, sup­
2021). Overall, AI-based innovation can contribute to reducing in­ porting the achievement of SDG17. Consequently, the following is
equalities and promoting social and economic inclusion, supporting the hypothesized:
achievement of SDG10.
H2. AI-based innovation (SDG9) positively influences the SDGs’ social
AI-based innovation can also positively influence SDG11, which aims
pillar14 (i.e., SDG4-5, SDG10-11, and SDG16-17).
to make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and
sustainable. Through 3D-scanning technology, AI-based decision-mak­
2.1.4.3. AI in achieving the environmental pillar of SDGs through
ing for urban planning, green public transport, and AI-powered air
innovation. According to the technology enactment framework of insti­
quality platforms, AI-based innovation can contribute to building smart,
tutional theory, the environmental pillar of the SDGs (SDG6-7 and
sustainable, and livable cities (de Sousa Jabbour et al., 2020). By opti­
mizing resource allocation, improving infrastructure, and enhancing
urban mobility, AI-based technologies can improve the quality of life for 14
The six associated sub-hypotheses are provided in Table 18 in the Appendix.

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SDG12-15) also benefits from SDG9 (AI-based innovation) in cross- 2.1.5. Impact of cross-country institutional arrangements on the
country settings (Mathiyazhagan et al., 2021). For instance, AI-based relationship between AI-based innovation and SDGs’ achievement
innovation can positively influence SDG6, which aims to ensure the When governments use information and communications technology
availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all. (ICT), the results vary (Richter et al., 2022). For instance, many coun­
Through the analysis of data on water quality and usage, AI-based tries have successfully collected income taxes online. However, new ICT
technologies (e.g., the water sector’s digital transformation) can sup­ systems sometimes fail to improve processes, data, or knowledge-
port the optimization of water supply and sanitation systems, improving sharing. Researchers and practitioners want to understand these com­
access to clean water and sanitation services. Furthermore, AI-based plexities (Richter et al., 2022). The technology enactment framework
innovations can also support the management of water resources and (TEF) may help to understand these complexities (Fountain, 2001).
monitoring of water-related risks, such as floods and droughts (de Sousa ‘Building the Virtual State’ by Jane Fountain examines ICT’s impact on
Jabbour et al., 2020). Overall, AI-based innovation (enacted technol­ government institutions. Fountain uses bureaucracy, neo­
ogy) can contribute to improving water management and increasing institutionalism, networks, and governance research to present the
access to clean water and sanitation worldwide, supporting the technology enactment framework. It offers a more complete and
achievement of SDG6. convincing explanation than her partially developed theories. This al­
AI-based innovation can also positively influence SDG7, which aims lows an in-depth study of how organizational structure and institutional
to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy arrangements affect technology use for theory development. Fountain’s
for all. Through analyzing energy data, AI-based technologies (objective conceptual separation of ICT components from actors’ interpretations
technology) can support the optimization of energy generation, distri­ and practical applications is crucial. According to the TEF, technology
bution, and consumption, reducing waste and increasing efficiency. serves three purposes: it manages the organization, becomes part of its
Furthermore, AI-based innovations can also support the integration of infrastructure, and drives organizational change. Fountain refers to ICT-
renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, and off-grid heavy states as ‘virtual states,’ a metaphorical term used to underscore
energy systems into existing energy systems, facilitating the transition to their impacts on state structure, citizens, and corporations (Fountain,
a more sustainable energy mix (Ranjbari et al., 2021). Overall, AI-based 2001).
innovation can contribute to increasing access to affordable and sus­ Apart from shedding light on formal institutions such as Govern­
tainable energy, supporting the achievement of SDG7 worldwide. ment, TEF acknowledges the role of informal institutions such as un­
AI-based innovation can also positively influence SDG12 (Respon­ written rules, social norms, and shared beliefs in shaping how
sible Consumption and Production) by improving resource efficiency, individuals, organizations, and societies adopt and use AI-based in­
reducing waste and pollution, and promoting sustainable practices. AI- novations (Aparicio et al., 2021). Informal institutions can impact on
based innovation (e.g., food system innovations such as automation how people perceive and interpret AI, the level of trust they have in it,
and robotics in agriculture and personalized nutrition) can also enable and the rules and regulations that govern its use. By incorporating
more effective supply chain management, reduce the environmental informal institutions in TEF, researchers can better understand how AI-
impact, and promote circular economy models, thereby contributing to based innovations can be adopted, scaled up, and sustained in different
SDG9 and promoting sustainable development (Fritz et al., 2021). social contexts. Informal institutions can also impact on how individuals
AI-based innovation (e.g., innovations to combat climate change and organizations approach sustainability and ethical issues (Aparicio
such as innovative low-carbon products and services, AI-based green et al., 2021). For example, shared beliefs and norms can shape people’s
data centers, sophisticated climate modeling, and green power feeding perceptions and values vis-à-vis SDGs, influencing the extent to which
systems) can also positively influence SDG13 (Climate Action) by they adopt sustainable practices and technologies. Understanding the
facilitating the development and deployment of clean energy solutions, role of informal institutions can help individuals and institutions to
enhancing climate modeling and prediction, improving climate resil­ adopt AI-based innovations in a way that aligns with their values and
ience, and supporting carbon capture and storage technologies. AI can norms and promotes sustainable and ethical practices (Styrin et al.,
also help to identify new opportunities for emissions reductions and 2022).
enable more effective climate monitoring and mitigation strategies, The countries (mostly developed countries) that adopted the afore­
contributing to achieving SDG9 and promoting sustainable development mentioned institutional arrangements have made significant strides
(Richter et al., 2022). since 2015 in achieving SDGs through AI-based innovation. These
AI-based innovation can also positively influence SDG14 (Life Below developed countries have included SDGs in national plans, strategies,
Water) by enhancing ocean monitoring and modeling, supporting sus­ planning processes, parliaments, and multi-stakeholder institutions.
tainable fisheries management, and improving marine biodiversity These countries have also created high-level coordination mechanisms,
conservation. AI can also enable real-time data collection and analysis, dedicated strategies and roadmaps, data platforms, and collaborative
identify threats to marine ecosystems, and support effective response reporting to engage stakeholders. Moreover, though many developed
measures, contributing to achieving SDG9 and promoting sustainable countries have failed to meet SDGs related to income inequality, edu­
development in different countries (Ranjbari et al., 2021). cation, climate change mitigation, and gender equality due to the lack of
AI-based innovation can also positively influence SDG15 (Life on relevant innovations, they have, overall, performed well in economic
Land) by improving land-use mapping, enhancing wildlife conservation, development (World Economic Forum, 2017). Furthermore, as gaps or
and supporting sustainable forest management. AI can also enable more weaknesses emerge and circumstances change, these countries have
accurate biodiversity monitoring, identify and mitigate the impacts of implemented or adjusted key institutional systems concerning
human activities, and support ecosystem restoration efforts, contrib­ innovation-influenced SDG implementation. Conversely, developing
uting to the achievement of SDG9 and promoting sustainable develop­ countries, including the poorest, rank low in institutional arrangements,
ment in cross-country settings (de Sousa Jabbour et al., 2020). AI-based innovation, and SDG achievement (Dhahri et al., 2021).
Therefore, the following is hypothesized: Consequently, the following is hypothesized:
H3. AI-based innovation (SDG9) positively influences the SDGs’ H4. AI-based innovation helps developed countries to achieve better
environmental pillar15 (i.e., SDG6-7 and SDG12-15). results in SDGs16 due to better institutional arrangements than

16
The sixteen associated sub-hypotheses are provided in Table 18 in the
15
The six associated sub-hypotheses are provided in Table 18 in the Appendix. Appendix.

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S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

developing countries. as ‘developing.’

As per the above literature review, the theoretical and research
models of this study are provided below in Figs. 3 and 4, respectively: 3.4. Problem identification

The procedure for system dynamics modeling, as outlined by

3. Research methodology
Kazancoglu et al. (2021), starts with a comprehensive understanding of
the system under examination, followed by the demarcation of its
3.1. System dynamics (SD)
boundaries19 and components. Within the framework of this study, a
thorough consideration of all essential variables that influence the sys­
This research uses system dynamics (SD), established by Forrester in
tem is indispensable for accurately simulating the impacts of AI-based
the 1950s and ‘60s. It simulates complex social systems to test new
innovation on SDGs. Once the system parameters (variables or con­
management and change methods. SD holds that ‘effects may influence
structs) had been outlined, their interconnections were demonstrated
causes,’ requiring business analysts to consider the entire system of
through causal loop diagrams, as discussed by Kazancoglu et al. (2021).
interrelated relationships. SD also recognizes complex interconnected
These causal loop diagrams represent the system’s internal interactions
feedback loops and rejects a linear cause-and-effect relationship (Cosenz
via positive or negative feedback loops. Analyzing these loops offers
et al., 2020).
insights into the system’s overall conduct, as evidenced in studies by
SD simulates differently by modeling a system’s behavior and
Yuan and Wang (2014) and Ricciardi et al. (2020). Afterwards, the
element relationships by mapping its structure. It helps to understand
causal loop diagram underwent a transformation into a stock-and-flow
and exploit complex management systems’ feedback relationships. The
diagram, with the help of Vensim software, to estimate parameter
model also provides a business planning or operational methodology for
values. The subsequent sections outline the execution steps.
decision-making. Furthermore, the model can test various scenarios and
predict future outcomes using historical data (Gao and Zhang, 2022).
3.5. Sample and data

3.2. System dynamics and sustainable development: A 50-year path

To simulate the impacts of AI-based innovation on SDGs, I employed
a comprehensive approach, drawing upon data from three distinct yet
System dynamics is a natural fit for sustainable Development anal­
complementary data sets. The objective was to capture all the critical
ysis because it enables researchers to model and simulate the behavior of
factors influencing the system, thereby offering a multifaceted
complex, interconnected systems over time. System dynamics is
perspective on the relationship between AI, innovation, and
particularly relevant for sustainable development, which involves inte­
sustainability.
grating economic, social, and environmental factors to achieve long-
The selection of countries for the study was vital to ensure a broad
term, equitable outcomes (Pedercini et al., 2020). System dynamics fa­
representation across the development spectrum. I included a diverse
cilitates well-analyzed policy development by identifying unintended
mix of 22 countries from both developed and developing nations. This
consequences and trade-offs. It also encourages interdisciplinary
selection enabled me to conduct comparative analyses and to account
collaboration, leading to a more comprehensive understanding of sus­
for the unique intricacies of AI-based innovation and SDG achievements
tainable development (Randers, 2000). As shown in Fig. 5, the two ‘SDs’
across the globe. This selection not only offers a globally relevant
have coevolved over the last 50 years due to a growth-generating
perspective but also captures the context-specific nuances of AI-driven
feedback loop in which better analytical tools discover answers and
sustainable development, given the 22 countries’ unique socio-
new problems, which in turn encourages further methodological ad­
economic characteristics and stages of development (Burchardt and
vances (Pedercini et al., 2020).
Ickler, 2021; Qureshi, 2022).
The developed countries examined in this study include Australia,
3.3. Research setting Canada, France, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, Saudi Arabia,
Turkey, the UAE, the UK, and the US. These nations are often seen as
The impact of AI-based innovation on SDGs is simulated over a 9- leaders in technological adoption and provide a rich context for un­
year period, from 2022 to 2030, for 22 nations (including both devel­ derstanding how developed economies utilize AI-based in pursuit of
oped and developing nations17) across five continents (i.e., Asia, Africa, their SDGs (Oxford Insights, 2022; United Nations, 2022a; WIPO, 2022).
Europe, North America, and Oceania). According to the United Nations In contrast, the study also encompasses developing nations, such as
Development Programme’s Human Development Index (HDI),18 these Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Iran, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uzbe­
22 nations are either developed or developing (UNDP, 2022). The kistan, and Vietnam. While these countries face different challenges and
countries that rate as having ‘very high human development’ in this are at varied stages of technological adoption, they have embarked on
index have been considered as ‘developed,’ and the rest of the countries ambitious plans to incorporate AI when addressing their unique devel­
opmental goals (Oxford Insights, 2022; United Nations, 2022c; WIPO,
2022).
17
A developed nation has a high quality of life, a strong economy (e.g., high The Oxford Insights AI readiness survey, an integral part of my data
GDP, GNP, and per capita income), and an advanced technological infrastruc­ gathering, provides a comprehensive assessment of a country’s pre­
ture relative to less industrialized nations (IGI Global, 2022). On the other paredness to adopt and optimally exploit artificial intelligence (AI) in
hand, a country with a lower HDI and a smaller industrial base is considered a the domain of public service delivery. It employs a diverse set of in­
developing nation (Bhimani et al., 2022).
18 dicators, such as existing infrastructure, talent base, regulatory frame­
While GDP per capita is a common indicator for categorizing countries as
works, and the level of investment in AI-related research and
developed or developing, I opted for the HDI index for several reasons. The HDI
index takes into account not only economic indicators but also social and
development. Existing infrastructure evaluates digital resources,
human development factors, such as health and education, which provides a internet connectivity, and data centers (Oxford Insights, 2022). The
more comprehensive view of a country’s development status (Bhimani et al.,
2022). In this paper, I focus on all the SDGs (not only those related to the
19
economic pillar). Hence, the UN HDI index is the index best-suited for this In system dynamics modeling, ‘boundaries’ refer to the defined scope or
paper. Additionally, the HDI index is widely recognized and used by the United limits of the system being analyzed. Determining the boundaries of a system is a
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) as a measure of development, crucial step in the modeling process, as it decides what is included within the
making it a relevant choice for this study (UNDP, 2022). system (i.e., variables, relationships) (Black, 2013).

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S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

Fig. 3. Theoretical model of the study based on the Technology Enactment Framework (Fountain, 2001).

Fig. 4. Research model of the study.

talent base gauges the quantity and quality of AI skills available, The SDG cross-country survey by the UN, which offers a global
including AI researchers, data scientists, and AI educators, in addition to overview of progress on implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
the general population’s digital literacy. Regulatory frameworks Development, has been used to gather SDG-related data. The survey
encompass data privacy laws and AI-specific regulations, assessing the gathers data from countries around the world on a range of indicators
adaptability of a country’s legal and regulatory systems in relation to the related to SDGs, including poverty reduction, gender equality, climate
emergence of AI. The level of investment in AI-related research and action, and economic growth (United Nations, 2022a). The objective is
development indicates the financial commitment to AI advancement twofold: to render a broad-based image of individual nations’ strides
through public and private sector investment (Oxford Insights, 2022). towards these global goals, and to understand the complex interplay of
Therefore, the survey offers a comprehensive view of each country’s AI socio-economic, political, environmental, and cultural factors influ­
readiness, providing critical insights into AI adoption for policymakers, encing such progress. Serving policymakers, researchers, and a broad
business leaders, and other stakeholders. Beyond data collection, the spectrum of stakeholders, this survey describes a comprehensive land­
survey emphasizes the need for global efforts to bridge disparities in AI scape of the rate and quality of SDG advances, offering valuable insights
readiness, contributing to the worldwide promotion of equitable AI into what drives success in different geopolitical environments (United
adoption (Oxford Insights, 2022). Nations, 2022c). More than a simple inventory, the SDG cross-country

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S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

Fig. 5. A timeline of sustainable development and system dynamics (adapted from Pedercini et al., 2020).

survey is a vibrant knowledge platform, merging global accountability everyone (United Nations, 2022a). Affordable and Clean Energy (SDG7)
for the 2030 Agenda commitments with an evolving repository of is focused on ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and
effective strategies for sustainable development, all while underscoring modern energy for all. Decent Work and Economic Growth (SDG8)
the indispensable role of international collaboration in tackling these promotes sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth, full
shared challenges (United Nations, 2022a). and productive employment, and decent work for everyone. Industry,
The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)’s Global Innovation, and Infrastructure (SDG9) aims to build resilient infra­
Innovation Index, an annual ranking of nations based on their capacity structure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and fos­
for and success in innovation, has been used to collect innovation- ter innovation. Reduced Inequality (SDG10), Sustainable Cities and
related data. This index, comprehensive in its approach, scrutinizes Communities (SDG11), Responsible Consumption and Production
the innovation environment of each country, factoring in various di­ (SDG12), Climate Action (SDG13), Life Below Water (SDG14), Life on
mensions, such as expenditure on research and development, the Land (SDG15), Peace and Justice, Strong Institutions (SDG16), and
strength of intellectual property protection laws, and the quality of Partnerships to achieve the Goals (SDG17) also follow suit in this regard
human capital, which includes education and training (WIPO, 2022). (United Nations, 2022c).
What sets the Global Innovation Index apart is its dual-purpose The second category, AI Readiness, evaluates a country’s prepared­
approach: it not only highlights exemplary practices that promote ness to implement AI in public services (Oxford Insights, 2022). This
innovation and creativity, but also pinpoints areas that require evaluation takes into account an array of indicators, including the
improvement. As such, it serves as a roadmap for countries to enhance Government’s vision for AI, the presence of regulatory and ethical AI
their innovation ecosystem (WIPO, 2022). The ultimate aim is to nurture frameworks, the level of digital capacity within the Government, and the
a worldwide culture of innovation and creativity, underpinning the size and health of the technology sector. Other considerations include
belief that innovation is a pivotal driver of sustainable economic growth the skills available in the country, the state of technological infrastruc­
and development. By offering an objective analysis of each country’s ture, and the availability of data for training AI models (Oxford Insights,
innovation strengths and weaknesses, the index plays a fundamental 2022).
role in shaping national and international policies aimed at promoting The final category, Innovation, utilizes the Global Innovation Index
the robustness of the global innovation landscape (WIPO, 2022). to evaluate nations based on their capacity for and success in fostering
Innovation. This category is subdivided into seven critical domains: in­
3.6. Measures of variables (model parameters) stitutions, human capital and research, infrastructure, market sophisti­
cation, business sophistication, knowledge and technology outputs, and
This multifaceted study gathers and examines data from several creative outputs (WIPO, 2022). Each domain consists of various
variables spanning three key categories: SDGs, AI Readiness, and measurable factors, including the political environment, education
Innovation. level, Research & Development investment, credit accessibility, the
First, the SDGs, which are universally adopted by all United Nations availability of knowledge workers, knowledge creation and diffusion,
Member States, form a set of objectives that strive to address a wide and intangible assets. Each of these areas provides a piece of the overall
spectrum of societal challenges. Their purpose is to foster a better, more puzzle of a nation’s capacity for innovation (WIPO, 2022).
sustainable future for everyone by the year 2030. The SDGs encompass
17 interconnected goals (United Nations, 2022a). For instance, SDG1 3.7. Parameter scores
aims to eradicate extreme poverty, defined as individuals living on less
than $1.25 per day and uses indicators such as the poverty headcount For the base year of 2021, initial values of the aforementioned model
ratio and the poverty rate following taxes and transfers to measure variables were gathered. Consideration was given to the change rates of
progress. SDG2, titled Zero Hunger, strives to ensure that all people have various variables based on the current state and the 2030 vision. The
access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food all year round, with prog­ model variables are fully described in Table 1 in the Appendix.
ress assessed by indicators like the prevalence of undernourishment and
the sustainable management of nitrogen, among others (United Nations, 3.8. Causal loop diagram of the model
2022b). The remaining 15 SDGs are dedicated to other critical global
objectives. Good Health and Well-being (SDG3) ensures healthy lives Having defined the system’s boundaries and parameters, I developed
and promotes well-being for everyone at all ages. Quality Education a causal loop diagram, as per Cernev and Fenner (2020), to investigate
(SDG4) aims for an inclusive and equitable quality education and pro­ the interactions between associated variables and develop a system
motes lifelong learning opportunities for all. Gender Equality (SDG5) dynamics model. This diagram, grounded in the variables from Section
aims to achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls. 3.6 and presented in Fig. 6, offers a qualitative view of the intricate
Clean Water and Sanitation (SDG6) works towards ensuring the avail­ relationship between AI-based innovation and the SDGs. In the diagram,
ability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for reinforcing effects are represented by black arrows and denoted by ‘R,’

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S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

Fig. 6. Causal-loop diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on the SDGs.

while balancing loops are symbolized by red arrows and labeled as ‘B.’ achievement of SDG12 (Responsible Consumption and Production)
Notably, the diagram represents a generic causal loop diagram for 16 (Ricciardi et al., 2020). Conversely, factors other than AI-based inno­
SDGs. vation that either boost or hinder the growth rate of each SDG can be
classified as control variables (converter). Lastly, the ‘connector’ rep­
3.9. Model and data analysis procedure resents the interactions and relationships between these elements. It
draws out the interdependencies between the stocks, flows, and con­
To create quantitative models (stock-flow diagrams), all the major verters, creating a comprehensive model of how each part of the system
factors that impact on the behavior of the SDGs through AI-based influences the others (Yuan and Wang, 2014).
innovation are identified. Stock-flow diagrams are rooted in system Figs. 7–22 depict stock-flow diagrams (conceptual frameworks) for
dynamics, a methodology developed in the mid-20th century by Jay W. each SDG apart from SDG9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure)
Forrester of MIT (Forrester et al., 1976). These diagrams allow us to using VENSIM software. VENSIM software is one of the best tools for
visualize and understand the structure and behavior of complex systems, system dynamic modeling due to its user-friendly interface, powerful
such as the interplay between AI-based innovation and SDGs. simulation engine, versatility, robustness, and support and resources. Its
Stock, flow, converter, and connector are the four main elements of interface is easy to use, and its equations are straightforward, making it
stock-flow diagrams, representing the variables under consideration and suitable for building models quickly, even for complex systems. The
their equations (Cosenz et al., 2020). First, ‘Stocks’ in a system dynamic simulation engine is fast and efficient, even for large models with many
model represent accumulations over time, such as population score­ variables and feedback loops. VENSIM’s versatility allows it to be used
cards, water in a bathtub, books in a library, or money in a bank. In this for various applications. Its robustness allows it to handle real-world
research, the stock signifies SDG scores (goals 1–8 and 10–17) at any problems. Moreover, the helpful user community and online resources
given moment. They can be understood as the ‘memory’ of the system, provide a wealth of information for users (Del Vecchio et al., 2019).
because they accumulate the net effect of inflows and outflows over Overall, VENSIM is an excellent tool for system dynamic modeling.
time, showing the present state of each SDG (Gao and Zhang, 2022). In the SDG1 stock-flow diagram (see Fig. 7, below), the ‘stock’ rep­
However, these stocks are not static. They change over time due to resents the current state of poverty. This is impacted by two main
‘flows.’ A flow is an activity that changes the stock, either by adding to it ‘flows’: the ‘inflow,’ or a rise in the SDG1 score, reflecting anti-poverty
(inflows) or subtracting from it (outflows). For example, births represent actions, and the ‘outflow,’ or a decrease in the score, indicating factors
the population’s filling, and deaths its draining. When applied to the that exacerbate poverty. The inflow is positively influenced by both the
SDGs, flow could signify the rate of progress or setbacks in achieving ‘main auxiliary variable,’ like AI-based Innovation, and ‘control auxil­
these goals (increase and decrease rates of SDGs). For instance, an inflow iary variables,’ like Time to Achieve SDG1 Targets, Influence of SDG9,
might be new policies that accelerate progress towards an SDG, while an and Poverty Headcount Ratio. However, the Poverty rate after taxes and
outflow could represent factors hindering progress, like a conflict or an transfers can inadvertently increase poverty, slowing SDG1 progress.
economic downturn (Pedercini et al., 2020). Then, the ‘converter’ (also In the SDG2 stock-flow chart (Fig. 8), the ‘stock’ or SDG2 score sig­
known as ‘auxiliary variables’) in the model symbolizes the external nifies global hunger status. The ‘inflow’ (rise in SDG2 score) reflects
inputs or variables that affect these flows. In system dynamics modeling, anti-hunger actions, while the ‘outflow’ (fall in score) indicates
auxiliary variables are split into control and main variables. ‘Control increasing hunger. AI-based Innovation (‘main auxiliary variable’) and
variables,’ often adjustable parameters, influence system behavior, ‘control auxiliary variables’, such as estimated SDG2 target achievement
while the ‘main variables’ represent the model outputs of primary in­ year, SDG9 influence, Human Trophic Level, Cereal Yield, Yield Gap
terest (Richardson, 1991). In this context, AI-based innovation repre­ Closure, and Sustainable Nitrogen Management Index, shape the inflow.
sents the main variable (converter), which signifies the transformative Conversely, factors like undernourishment prevalence, child stunting
potential of AI technology to change the rate of progress of SDGs. For and wasting, obesity, and hazardous pesticide exports boost the outflow,
example, AI’s role in optimizing resource use could accelerate the hindering SDG2 progress.

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Fig. 7. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG1 (Economic Pillar).

Fig. 8. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG2 (Economic Pillar).

Fig. 9. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG3 (Economic Pillar).

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S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

Fig. 10. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG4 (Social Pillar).

Fig. 11. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG5 (Social Pillar).

In the SDG3 stock-flow graph (see Fig. 9), the ‘stock’ is the SDG3 participation, net primary enrollment, literacy rate, and tertiary
score, reflecting global health. The scores for ‘inflow’ and ‘outflow’ attainment. However, factors such as low secondary completion and
indicate health improvements and hindrances, respectively. The ‘main science underachievers increase the SDG4 outflow, highlighting
auxiliary variable’ is AI-based Innovation, while ‘control auxiliary var­ educational challenges.
iables,’ such as the estimated SDG3 target achievement year, SDG9 in­ In Fig. 11’s SDG5 stock-flow diagram, the ‘stock’ is the SDG5 score,
fluence, life expectancy, adolescent fertility rate, birth assistance by representing global gender equality status. The inflow (representing an
skilled health personnel, subjective well-being, and universal health increased SDG5 score) signifies gender equality progress, while the
coverage, foster inflow. Contrarily, factors like maternal and neonatal outflow (indicating a decreased SDG5 score) denotes setbacks. The main
mortality, tuberculosis incidence, pollution-related deaths, smoking auxiliary variable, such as AI-based Innovation, and control auxiliary
rates, disease death rates, new HIV infections, and traffic deaths fuel the variables, such as Year to Achieve SDG5 Targets, the influence of SDG9
outflow, suggesting ongoing health challenges. on SDG5 Targets, family planning methods, female-to-male education &
In the stock-flow diagram for SDG4 (as shown in Fig. 10), the ‘stock’ workforce ratio, and female parliamentary representation, drive the
is the SDG4 score, symbolizing global education quality. The inflow. However, factors like the gender wage gap fuel the outflow,
‘inflow’—increased SDG4 score—and ‘outflow’—decreased SDG4 highlighting a key area needing policy attention for gender parity.
score—represent educational improvements and challenges, respec­ Fig. 12’s SDG6 stock-flow model uses the ‘stock’ as the SDG6 score to
tively. Influencing the inflow are the ‘main auxiliary variables,’ such as denote the current global status of water and sanitation facilities. This
AI-based Innovation, and ‘control auxiliary variables,’ such as Year to model features two pivotal streams: the ‘inflow,’ representing im­
Achieve SDG4 Targets, the influence of SDG9 on SDG4 Targets, tech­ provements in water and sanitation, and the ‘outflow,’ signifying the
nology’s role in education, pre-primary organized learning challenges being encountered. The inflow is influenced by the ‘main

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Fig. 12. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG6 (Environmental Pillar).

Fig. 13. Stock-flow diagram evaluating the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG7 (Environmental Pillar).

Fig. 14. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG8 (Economic Pillar).

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S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

Fig. 15. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG10 (Social Pillar).

Fig. 16. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG11 (Social Pillar).

Fig. 17. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG12 (Environmental Pillar).

auxiliary variable,’ identified as AI-based Innovation, alongside ‘control the population, effective and safely managed sanitation services, rate of
auxiliary variables’, such as Time to Achieve SDG6 Targets, how SDG6 freshwater withdrawal, extent of wastewater treatment, and the amount
Targets are influenced by SDG9, accessibility of basic drinking water to of scarce water consumption embodied within imports.

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S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

Fig. 18. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG13 (Environmental Pillar).

Fig. 19. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG14 (Environmental Pillar).

Fig. 20. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG15 (Environmental Pillar).

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S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

Fig. 21. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG16 (Social Pillar).

Fig. 22. Stock-flow diagram assessing the impact of AI-based Innovation on SDG17 (Social Pillar).

For SDG7, as depicted in Fig. 13, the ‘stock’ represents the SDG7 upsurge in the SDG10 score, representing noteworthy advances towards
score, highlighting the current global situation of Affordable & Clean absolute parity in income and wealth. Conversely, the ‘outflows’ denote
Energy. The ‘inflows’ reflect improvements in the score, arising from a diminution in the SDG10 score, illustrating worsening disparities
advances in affordable, clean energy, while ‘outflows’ represent de­ primarily attributed to uneven income distribution and poverty rates
creases due to challenges like rising CO2 emissions from fuel combus­ among the elderly population. The primary auxiliary variable regulating
tion. The inflow is influenced by ‘main auxiliary variables,’ like AI-based the inflow rate encompasses AI-based innovation, while the control
Innovation, and ‘control auxiliary variables’, such as the projected Time auxiliary variable, which includes Year to Achieve SDG10 Targets and
to Achieve SDG7 Targets, the influence of SDG9 on the SDG7 Target, the SDG10 Target Influenced by SDG9, modulates the inflow rate.
percentage of people with access to electricity and clean cooking fuels, In the stock-flow diagram for SDG11 (Fig. 16), the ‘stock’ is the
as well as the share of renewable energy in the total primary energy SDG11 score, representing the current global state of urban sustain­
supply, all of which strengthen the SDG7 inflow. ability. An increase in the SDG11 score represents the ‘inflow,’ signi­
In the stock-flow illustration pertaining to SDG8, as presented in fying progress in urban sustainability. The rate of this inflow is regulated
Fig. 14, the SDG8 score serves as the ‘stock’ representing the present by the ‘main auxiliary variable,’ AI-based innovation, and ‘control
international status of quality employment and economic growth. The auxiliary variables’ including Year to Achieve SDG11 Targets, SDG11
‘inflows’ symbolize an upward trajectory in the SDG8 score, thereby Target Influenced by SDG9, access to improved water sources for urban
encapsulating progress in aspects such as labor rights, accessibility to dwellers, and satisfaction with public transportation systems.
banking services, and adjusted growth in gross domestic product. A Conversely, the ‘outflow’ signifies a decrease in the SDG11 score,
‘main auxiliary variable’ controlling the pace of inflow encompasses ‘AI- highlighting challenges to urban sustainability, such as widespread
based Innovation,’ whereas the rate of inflow is modulated by ‘control slums, particulate matter pollution, and high rent burdens.
auxiliary variables’ like the Year to Achieve SDG8 Targets and SDG8 Within the stock-flow framework for SDG12, as depicted in Fig. 17,
Target Influenced by SDG9. On the other hand, the ‘outflows’ denote a the SDG12 score serves as the ‘stock,’ signifying the prevailing global
decline in the SDG8 score, attributed to negative factors like elevated condition of sustainable consumption and production. An upsurge in the
youth unemployment, pervasive modern slavery, substantial inflation SDG12 score constitutes the ‘inflow,’ representing beneficial transitions
rate, widespread unemployment, and incidence of work-related towards conscientious consumption. The rate of this inflow is regulated
fatalities. by the ‘primary auxiliary variable,’ such as AI-based innovation, and
In the stock-flow schematic concerning SDG10, as depicted in ‘control auxiliary variables’, such as Year to Achieve SDG12 Targets and
Fig. 15, the SDG10 score embodies the current worldwide status of SDG12 Target Influenced by SDG9. In contrast, the ‘outflow’ intimates a
equality, thereby constituting the ‘stock.’ The ‘inflows’ correspond to an diminution in the SDG12 score, highlighting problems such as excessive

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waste generation and emissions, which have detrimental effects on 3.10. Model validation procedure
sustainable practices. Control auxiliary variables contributing to this
‘outflow’ include elements like municipal solid waste, electronic waste, Before the study’s simulation, a rigorous validation process was
SO2, and nitrogen emissions, exports of plastic waste, and non-recycled undertaken, following Wu et al. (2010). Initial steps included con­
municipal solid waste. ducting a ‘dimensional consistency’ test, involving cross-verifying the
In the SDG13 stock-flow framework, as delineated in Fig. 18, the model’s dimensions defined in Table 1 with real-world counterparts,
‘stock’ is denoted by the SDG13 score, reflecting the current global confirmed by experts. In addition, a ‘structural verification’ test was
advancement in climate action. The ‘inflow’ corresponds to a rise in the performed using the ‘Check Model’ function in Vensim software, veri­
SDG13 score, which is influenced by AI-based innovation as the ‘primary fying the model’s accuracy in terms of variable relations and formula­
auxiliary variable’ and ‘control auxiliary variables,’ such as Year to tions. A final ‘behavioral validation’ test compared simulation data
Achieve SDG13 Targets, SDG13 Target Influenced by SDG9, and an against historical data from 2021 to 2022, encompassing key variables
elevated Carbon Pricing Score, which symbolizes efficacious mitigation such as SDG achievement and AI-based innovation. With deviations <5
approaches. Conversely, the ‘outflow’ signifies a reduction in the SDG13 %, the model’s accuracy was substantiated, thus proving the simula­
score, attributable to factors such as CO2 emissions from fossil fuel tion’s reliability for future forecasting.
combustion, cement manufacturing, imports, and fossil fuel exports,
thereby highlighting the environmental burden. 4. Results and analysis
In the SDG14 stock-flow diagram (see Fig. 19), the ‘stock’ is repre­
sented by the SDG14 score, denoting the health of marine ecosystems. The simulation of the model is carried out over nine years, beginning
An increase in the SDG14 score signifies the ‘inflow,’ driven by AI-based in 2022 and ending in 2030. The result for each SDG is provided below:
innovation as the ‘primary auxiliary variable.’ Other factors influencing
the inflow include ‘control auxiliary variables,’ such as the Year to
4.1. SDG1 (ending poverty in all its forms worldwide) related results
Achieve SDG14 Targets, SDG14 Target Influenced by SDG9, the average
area of protection in crucial marine biodiversity sites, and the Ocean
SDG1 (Economic Pillar) aims to end global poverty. Seven hundred
Health Index: Clean Waters score, highlighting successes in marine
and sixty-seven million developing country residents—1 in 5—live on
conservation. Conversely, the ‘outflow,’ indicating a decrease in the
less than $1.90 per day. Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa suffer the
SDG14 score, arises from issues like fish extraction from overstrained or
most. Political-economic instability is linked to extreme poverty (United
depleted stocks, trawling, discarding, and import-related threats to
Nations, 2022d). Table 2 in the Appendix presents the results for the
marine biodiversity.
impact of AI-based innovation on SDG1.
In the stock-flow model pertaining to SDG15, as illustrated in Fig. 20,
From Table 2, it is evident that the estimated impact of AI-based
the SDG15 score operates as the ‘stock,’ portraying the health of
innovation on SDG1 (No Poverty) is to decrease significantly in 2022,
terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and ecosystems. The ‘inflow,’
compared to the base year of 2021, and then increase continuously
symbolizing an enhancement in the SDG15 score, is influenced by AI-
between 2023 and 2030 for developed nations such as Australia, Can­
based innovation as the ‘main auxiliary variable,’ and Year to Achieve
ada, France, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Turkey, Russia, the UAE,
SDG15 Targets, SDG15 Target Influenced by SDG9, Mean Area Protected
the United Kingdom, and the United States. The same applies to devel­
in Terrestrial and Freshwater Sites Important to Biodiversity, as ‘control
oping nations such as Pakistan, Nigeria, Egypt, India, Vietnam,
auxiliary variables’ that bolster the inflow rate of SDG15, signifying
Bangladesh, and Iran.
advances in land and freshwater conservation. Contrarily, the ‘outflow,’
In Saudi Arabia (a developed country), the impact of AI-based
representing a diminution in the SDG15 score, is influenced by factors
innovation on SDG1 remained unchanged between 2021 and 2030.
such as the Red List Index of Species Survival, Permanent Deforestation,
Moreover, China and Kenya are estimated to show decrease-increase-
and Terrestrial and Freshwater Biodiversity Threats Embodied in
decrease and decrease-increase-decrease-increase trends, respectively.
Imports.
Within the stock-flow model for SDG16, as delineated in Fig. 21, the
SDG16 score constitutes the ‘stock,’ reflecting the global standing of 4.2. SDG2 (zero hunger) related results
peace, justice, and robust institutions. The ‘inflow’ into this stock, a rise
in the SDG16 score, is mediated by variables including AI-based inno­ SDG2 (Economic Pillar) seeks global hunger eradication by 2030. In
vation as the ‘primary auxiliary variable,’ and Year to Achieve SDG16 2020, 161 million more people were hungrier than in 2019. Hunger and
Targets, SDG16 Target Influenced by SDG9, the population’s perception food insecurity increased between 2014 and the COVID-19 pandemic.
of safety, property rights, birth registrations, access to justice, and press COVID-19 has exacerbated malnutrition, especially in children. The
freedom, as the ‘control auxiliary variables.’ In contrast, the ‘outflow,’ Ukraine war has recently caused a severe food crisis, disrupting global
which signifies a reduction in the SDG16 score, is shaped by variables supply chains since the Second World War (United Nations, 2022d).
such as the prevalence of homicides, the number of unsentenced de­ Table 3 in the Appendix shows how AI-based innovation has affected
tainees, child labor involvement, levels of corruption, exports of con­ SDG2.
ventional weaponry, and the number of incarcerated individuals. From Table 3, it is evident that the impact of AI-based innovation on
In a stock-flow diagram for SDG17 (see Fig. 22, below), the ‘stock’ is SDG2 (Zero Hunger) is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2022,
the SDG17 score (Partnerships for the Goals), reflecting the global compared to the base year of 2021, and then increase continuously
progress in fostering partnerships for achieving the SDGs. The ‘inflow,’ between 2023 and 2030 for developed nations such as Australia, Ger­
signifying an increase in the SDG17 score, is driven by elements such as many, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The same applies to
AI-based innovation as the ‘main auxiliary variable,’ and Year to Ach­ developing countries such as Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Nigeria,
ieve SDG17 Targets, SDG17 Target influenced by SDG9, international Kenya, Egypt, Bangladesh, China, and India.
concessional public finance for high-income and all OECD DAC coun­ For the developed countries France, New Zealand, Turkey, and the
tries, government revenue (excluding grants), the state of corporate tax UK, the influence of AI-based innovation on SDG2 is projected to fall
havens, and government spending on health and education, as the continuously between 2021 and 2030. The same applies to the devel­
‘control auxiliary variables.’ Conversely, the ‘outflow’ represents a oping country Iran. For the USA, the influence of AI-based innovation on
decrease in the SDG17 score, dictated by elements like financial secrecy SDG2 is projected to fall continuously between 2021 and 2026. Then,
and shifted profits of multinationals, which expedite the SDG17 outflow the USA is estimated to witness a steady increase between 2027 and
rate. 2029.

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4.3. SDG3 (good health and well-being for all) related results For developed nations such as Australia, the USA, the UK, the UAE,
Canada, France, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, the impact of
Sustainable development requires healthy lives and all-age well- AI-based innovation on SDG5 is anticipated to decrease significantly in
being (SDG3). Unfortunately, COVID-19 has caused human suffering, 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and then increase continu­
destabilized the global economy, and disrupted the progress made in ously between 2023 and 2030. The same applies to developing countries
health (e.g., improved life expectancy and child and maternal mortality) such as India, Bangladesh, Kenya, Egypt, and Iran.
before the pandemic. Hence, more efforts are needed to address many Nigeria (a developing country), Uzbekistan (a developing country),
persistent and emerging health issues through health system funding, and Germany (a developed country) are projected to witness Decrease-
sanitation, hygiene, and physician access (United Nations, 2022d). Increase, Decrease-Increase-Decrease-Increase, and Increase-Decrease-
Table 4 in the Appendix summarizes the impact of AI-based innovation Increase trends, respectively.
on SDG3 (Economic Pillar).
From Table 4, it is evident that the impact of AI-based innovation on 4.6. SDG6 (clean water and sanitation) related results
SDG3 (Good Health and Well-Being) is anticipated to decrease signifi­
cantly in 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and then increase Despite progress, a billion people—mostly rural—lack clean water
continuously between 2023 and 2030 for developed nations such as and sanitation. One in three people lack safe drinking water, two in five
Australia, New Zealand, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, lack soap and water for handwashing, and over 673 million defecate in
the UAE, the USA, and the UK. The same applies to developing countries the open (United Nations, 2022b). Table 7 in the Appendix presents the
such as Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, results of the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG6 (Environmental
Bangladesh, China, Iran, and India. Pillar).
For the developed countries, Canada and Turkey, the influence of AI- From Table 7, it is evident that the impact of AI-based innovation on
based innovation on SDG3 is projected to significantly decrease in 2022, SDG6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) is anticipated to increase continu­
compared to the base year of 2021, and then steadily increase between ously between 2021 and 2030 for the developed nations of Australia,
2023 and 2024. Then, it is projected to drop significantly in 2025 before France, Germany, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The same
continuously increasing from 2026 to 2030. applies to developing countries such as Egypt, Iran, Nigeria, and
Pakistan. On the other hand, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG6
4.4. SDG4 (quality education) related results is anticipated to decrease continuously between 2021 and 2030 for the
developed nation of Canada. The same applies to the developing country
SDG4 (Social Pillar) stands for quality education. Over the past Uzbekistan.
decade, school enrollment, especially for girls, has increased. Nonethe­ For developing nations such as Vietnam, Kenya, Bangladesh, China,
less, in 2018, nearly 20 % of the world’s youth were out of school. The and India, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG6 is anticipated to
global pandemic has also threatened global education progress (United decrease significantly in 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and
Nations, 2022d). Table 5 in the Appendix shows how AI-based innova­ then increase continuously between 2023 and 2030. On the other hand,
tion affected SDG4. for developed nations such as the UK and Turkey, the impact of AI-based
The impact of AI-based innovation on SDG4 is anticipated to innovation on SDG6 is anticipated to increase significantly in 2022,
decrease significantly in 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and compared to the base year of 2021, and then decrease continuously
then increase continuously between 2023 and 2030 for developed na­ between 2023 and 2030.
tions such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and In New Zealand (a developed country), the impact of AI-based
the UAE. The same applies to developing countries such as Vietnam, innovation on SDG6 is forecast to remain unchanged between 2021
Uzbekistan, Egypt, Bangladesh, and Iran. and 2030.
For the developed country, the USA, the influence of AI-based In the USA (a developed country), the influence of AI-based inno­
innovation on SDG4 is projected to drop continuously between 2021 vation on SDG6 is projected to see a steady increase from 2022 to 2027,
and 2030. On the other hand, France, Japan, China, and Kenya are compared to the base year of 2021, then a slight drop in 2028, followed
projected to show an increase-decrease trend. Moreover, the USA, by another steady increase from 2029 to 2030.
Turkey, India, Pakistan, and Nigeria are expected to show a decrease-
increase-decrease trend, while Germany will have a decrease-increase- 4.7. SDG7 (affordable and clean energy) related results
decrease-increase trend.
By improving energy efficiency, renewable energy, and electricity
4.5. SDG5 (gender equality) related results for developing countries, Goal 7 is being accomplished. Nonetheless,
more effort is required to electrify Sub-Saharan Africa, boost access to
Gender equality is required for stability, prosperity, and sustainable clean and safe cooking methods and fuels for the world’s 3 billion people
development. In the last few decades, there has been a rise in the edu­ who lack them, and diversify renewable energy sources beyond elec­
cation of young women, a decline in the practice of early marriage, an tricity (United Nations, 2022c). Table 8 in the Appendix shows how AI-
increase in the number of powerful women in positions of authority, and based innovation affects SDG7 (Environmental Pillar).
the passing of legislation to further advance gender equality. There are Table 8 shows that the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG7
still many obstacles to overcome, despite these advances. In 2019, one in (Affordable and Clean Energy) is anticipated to increase continuously
every five women and girls between the ages of 15 and 49 experienced between 2021 and 2030 for the developed nations of France, New
physical or sexual abuse at the hands of an intimate partner, discrimi­ Zealand, Saudi Arabia, and the USA. On the other hand, the impact of AI-
natory legislation and societal norms persisted, and women were un­ based innovation on SDG7 is anticipated to decrease continuously be­
derrepresented at every level of government. COVID-19 further tween 2021 and 2030 for the developing nation of Egypt.
exacerbated gender disparities in terms of security, the economy, and For developing nations such as Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Kenya,
social protection (United Nations, 2022c). Table 6 in the Appendix Bangladesh, China, and India, the impact of AI-based innovation on
summarizes the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG5. SDG7 is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2022, compared to the
From Table 6, it is evident that the impact of AI-based innovation on base year of 2021, and then increase continuously between 2023 and
SDG5 (Gender Equality) is anticipated to increase continuously between 2030. The same is true for developed nations such as the UK, Australia,
2021 and 2030 for the developed nations of Japan and Russia. The same Japan, Germany, and Turkey. On the other hand, for Russia (a developed
applies to developing countries such as China and Pakistan. country), the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG7 is anticipated to

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increase significantly in 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and Decrease-Increase- Decrease’ trend. On the other hand, Uzbekistan and
then decrease continuously between 2023 and 2030. Pakistan are forecast to witness a Decrease-Increase-Decrease trend.
Pakistan (a developing country) and Canada (a developed country) Similarly, Vietnam is forecast to witness a ‘Decrease-Increase’ trend.
are projected to witness an Increase-Decrease trend. On the other hand,
it is anticipated that the UAE, Iran, and Nigeria will witness an increase- 4.10. SDG11 (sustainable cities and communities) related results
decrease-increase trend.
Cities and metropolitan areas drive 60 % of global GDP and produce
4.8. SDG8 (decent work and economic growth) related results 70 % of carbon emissions. Rapid urbanization is leading to more slum
dwellers, overburdened infrastructure and services, and worsening air
A global recession worse than in 2009 in the aftermath of COVID-19 pollution. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) warns that
is forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The ILO estimates without measures to feed poor and vulnerable urban residents, hunger
that nearly half of the global workforce may lose their jobs (United and fatalities could rise significantly (United Nations, 2022d). Table 11
Nations, 2022c). Under this circumstance, inclusive economic growth is in the Appendix presents the results for the impact of AI-based innova­
needed to boost living standards, jobs, and progress. Table 9 in the tion on SDG11 (Social Pillar).
Appendix shows how AI-based innovation affects SDG8 (Economic Table 11 shows that the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG11
Pillar). (Sustainable Cities and Communities) is anticipated to increase contin­
From Table 9, it is evident that the impact of AI-based innovation on uously between 2021 and 2030 for Canada, the USA, and India. On the
SDG8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) is anticipated to increase other hand, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG11 is anticipated
continuously between 2021 and 2030 for the developed nations of to decrease continuously between 2021 and 2030 for the developing
France and New Zealand. nation of Uzbekistan.
For developing nations such as Uzbekistan, Nigeria, Iran, Egypt, For developing nations such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan,
Kenya, Bangladesh, and China, the impact of AI-based innovation on Kenya, and China, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG11 is
SDG8 is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2022, compared to the anticipated to decrease significantly in 2022, compared to the base year
base year of 2021, and then increase continuously between 2023 and of 2021, and then increase continuously between 2023 and 2030. The
2030. The same is true for developed nations such as the UAE, Russia, same is true for developed nations such as Australia, New Zealand,
the UK, Germany, and Turkey. On the other hand, for Saudi Arabia (a Russia, and the UAE. On the other hand, for the UK, Germany, Turkey,
developed country), the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG8 is Nigeria, and Iran, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG11 is
anticipated to increase significantly in 2022, compared to the base year anticipated to face an ‘increase-decrease’ trend, whereas Japan and
of 2021, and then decrease continuously between 2023 and 2030. Saudi Arabia are forecast to show a ‘decrease-increase’ trend, Egypt a
In Australia (a developed country), the influence of AI-based inno­ ‘decrease-increase-decrease-increase’ trend, and France a ‘decrease-in­
vation on SDG8 is projected to see a steady increase from 2022 to 2026, crease-decrease’ trend.
compared to the base year of 2021, followed by a steep drop in 2027 and
another steady increase from 2028 to 2030. On the other hand, it is 4.11. SDG12 (responsible consumption and production) related results
anticipated that the USA, Japan, Canada, and Vietnam will witness a
Decrease-Increase-Decrease-Increase trend. Similarly, India and Incessant consumption and production continue to harm the envi­
Pakistan are forecast to witness Decrease-Increase-Decrease and ronment. In the past 100 years, economic and social progress has gone
Decrease-Increase trends, respectively. hand in hand with environmental damage, putting at risk the systems on
which our future growth and survival depend (United Nations, 2022d).
4.9. SDG10 (reduced inequalities) related results Table 12 in the Appendix shows how AI-based innovation affects SDG12
(Environmental Pillar).
Even though some countries have lower relative income inequality Table 12 shows that the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG12
and lower-income countries have preferential trade status, inequality (Responsible Production and Consumption) is anticipated to decrease
persists. COVID-19 has worsened inequalities, especially for the poor continuously between 2021 and 2030 for Australia, Canada, Germany,
and vulnerable, highlighting economic inequality and fragile social Japan, New Zealand, Egypt, China, Saudi Arabia, and Uzbekistan.
safety nets (United Nations, 2022d). Table 10 in the Appendix presents For the developing nation of Vietnam, the impact of AI-based inno­
the results for the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG10 (Social vation on SDG12 is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2022,
Pillar). compared to the base year of 2021, and then increase continuously
From Table 10, it is evident that the impact of AI-based innovation on between 2023 and 2030. On the other hand, for France, Turkey, the
SDG10 (Reduced Inequalities) is anticipated to increase continuously USA, the UK, the UAE, India, Bangladesh, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan,
between 2021 and 2030 for the developed nation of Japan. On the other Russia, and Iran, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG12 is antic­
hand, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG10 is anticipated to ipated to increase significantly in 2022, compared to the base year of
decrease continuously between 2021 and 2030 for Australia, Germany, 2021, and then decrease continuously between 2023 and 2030.
New Zealand, Egypt, and India.
For developing nations such as Nigeria, Kenya, and China, the impact 4.12. SDG13 (actions to combat climate change) related results
of AI-based innovation on SDG10 is anticipated to decrease significantly
in 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and then increase contin­ The 2015 Paris Agreement set a limit of 2 ◦ C for the increase in global
uously between 2023 and 2030. The same is true for developed nations temperature this century. Through financial flows, new technology
such as France, Canada, Russia, and the UAE. On the other hand, for frameworks, and improved capacity building, the agreement also aims
Turkey, Bangladesh, and Iran, the impact of AI-based innovation on to help countries cope with climate change (United Nations, 2022c).
SDG10 is anticipated to increase significantly in 2022, compared to the Table 13 in the Appendix shows how AI-based innovation affects SDG13
base year of 2021, and then decrease continuously between 2023 and (Environmental Pillar).
2030. Table 13 shows that the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG13
In Saudi Arabia (a developed country), the impact of AI-based (Climate Action) is anticipated to increase continuously between 2021
innovation on SDG10 is forecast to remain unchanged between 2021 and 2030 for France and Nigeria. On the other hand, the impact of AI-
and 2030. based innovation on SDG13 is anticipated to decrease continuously
It is anticipated that the USA and the UK will witness an ‘Increase- between 2021 and 2030 for Uzbekistan, China, India, Kenya, and

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Pakistan. SDG15 is anticipated to face ‘increase-decrease-increase-decrease-in­

For Australia, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Canada, Turkey, the crease,’ and ‘decrease-increase’ trends, respectively.
UAE, the UK, the USA, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Vietnam, and Russia, the
impact of AI-based innovation on SDG13 is anticipated to decrease 4.15. SDG16 (peace, justice, and strong institutions) related results
significantly in 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and then in­
crease continuously between 2023 and 2030. On the other hand, for Conflict, weak institutions, insecurity, and injustice threaten sus­
Bangladesh, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG13 is anticipated tainable development. The United Nations High Commissioner for Ref­
to increase significantly in 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and ugees (UNHCR) registered a record 70 million refugees in 2018. The UN
then decrease continuously between 2023 and 2030. reported that 357 journalists, human rights defenders, and trade
For Iran, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG13 is anticipated unionists were murdered, and 30 went missing in 47 nations in 2019.
to face a ‘decrease-increase’ trend. Currently, one in four under-5 children worldwide is unregistered,
denying them a legal identity and access to justice and social services
4.13. SDG14 (protecting and promoting sustainability for life below (United Nations, 2022b). Table 16 in the Appendix shows how AI-based
water) related results innovation affects SDG16 (Social Pillar).
Table 16 shows that the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG16
Sustainable futures require careful management of oceans and seas, (Peace, Justice, and Solid Institutions) is anticipated to increase
which deliver and regulate our drinking water, rainwater, climate, continuously between 2021 and 2030 for Japan, Russia, and Turkey. On
weather, food, coastlines, and oxygen. Pollution degrades coastal wa­ the other hand, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG16 is antici­
ters, and ocean acidification harms ecosystems and biodiversity. Ocean pated to decrease continuously between 2021 and 2030 for India.
conservation must continue by reducing overfishing and marine pollu­ For France, Iran, China, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
tion (United Nations, 2022c). Table 14 in the Appendix summarizes the Vietnam, and Uzbekistan, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG16
impact of AI-based innovation on SDG14 (Environmental Pillar). is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2022, compared to the base
Table 14 shows that the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG14 year of 2021, and increase continuously between 2023 and 2030. On the
(Life Below Water) is anticipated to increase continuously between 2021 other hand, for Bangladesh, the UK, Canada, the USA, Germany, and
and 2030 for Germany, Iran, and Pakistan. On the other hand, the New Zealand, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG16 is anticipated
impact of AI-based innovation on SDG14 is anticipated to decrease to increase significantly in 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and
continuously between 2021 and 2030 for Uzbekistan, China, India, then decrease continuously between 2023 and 2030. Similarly, Kenya
Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. and Nigeria are forecast to face a ‘decrease-increase-decrease’ trend.
For the UK, the USA, and France, the impact of AI-based innovation For Australia, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG16 is
on SDG14 is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2022, compared to anticipated to face an ‘increase-decrease-increase-decrease’ trend.
the base year of 2021, and then increase continuously between 2023 and
2030. On the other hand, for Japan, Canada, and New Zealand, the 4.16. SDG17 (revitalize the global partnership for sustainable
impact of AI-based innovation on SDG14 is anticipated to increase development) related results
significantly in 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and then
decrease continuously between 2023 and 2030. The COVID-19 pandemic might have caused the worst recession
For Russia, the UAE, and Bangladesh, the impact of AI-based inno­ since the Great Depression, a 3 % global economic contraction in 2020.
vation on SDG14 is anticipated to face ‘increase-decrease-increase- SDG achievement requires strong international cooperation. SDG17
decrease-increase-decrease,’ ‘increase-decrease-increase-decrease-in­ prefers AI-driven connections for problem-solving and SDG goals
crease,’ and ‘increase-decrease-increase-decrease,’ trends, respectively. (United Nations, 2022a). Table 17 in the Appendix shows how AI-based
On the other hand, Egypt and Kenya are forecast to face a ‘decrease- innovation affects SDG17 (Social Pillar).
increase-decrease’ trend. Table 17 indicates that the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG17
(Partnerships for the Goals) is anticipated to decrease continuously be­
4.14. SDG15 (protecting life on land) related results tween 2021 and 2030 for Egypt. On the other hand, the impact of AI-
based innovation on SDG17 is anticipated to increase continuously be­
Humans have modified nearly all of Earth’s surface, leaving less and tween 2021 and 2030 in New Zealand.
less room for the planet’s natural inhabitants. It is estimated that one For Australia, Canada, France, Germany, India, Iran, China, Japan,
million species of animals and plants will become extinct in the next Turkey, Nigeria, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan, the impact of AI-
century. Radical shifts are required to preserve and revive the natural based innovation on SDG17 is anticipated to decrease significantly in
world (United Nations, 2022d). The effects of AI-based innovation on 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and increase continuously
SDG15 (Environmental Pillar) are summarized in Table 15 in the between 2023 and 2030. On the other hand, for Bangladesh and Kenya,
Appendix. the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG17 is anticipated to increase
Table 15 shows that the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG15 significantly in 2022, compared to the base year of 2021, and then
(Life on Land) is anticipated to increase continuously between 2021 and decrease continuously between 2023 and 2030. Similarly, the UK and
2030 for Australia, Canada, the UAE, the UK, and the USA. On the other the UAE are forecast to face an ‘increase-decrease’ trend.
hand, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG15 is anticipated to For the USA and Saudi Arabia, the impact of AI-based innovation on
decrease continuously between 2021 and 2030 for Egypt, Pakistan, SDG17 is anticipated to face ‘increase-decrease-increase-decrease’ and
Russia, and Saudi Arabia. ‘increase-decrease-increase,’ trends, respectively. On the other hand, for
For France and Uzbekistan, the impact of AI-based innovation on Russia, the impact of AI-based innovation on SDG17 is anticipated to
SDG15 is anticipated to decrease significantly in 2022, compared to the face a ‘decrease-increase-decrease-increase’ trend.
base year of 2021, and increase continuously between 2023 and 2030.
On the other hand, for Bangladesh, China, India, Iran, Japan, Kenya, 5. Findings and discussion
Nigeria, Turkey, and New Zealand, the impact of AI-based innovation on
SDG15 is anticipated to increase significantly in 2022, compared to the 5.1. Main findings
base year of 2021, and then decrease continuously between 2023 and
2030. The widespread consensus is that AI and associated technologies,
For Germany and Vietnam, the impact of AI-based innovation on such as machine intelligence and big data, have revolutionized our

20
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present and future (Demiralay et al., 2021). According to numerous public digital apps to promote healthy habits and control infectious
previous studies, AI is linked to education, employment, health care, diseases, in line with the findings of Benzidia et al. (2021). However,
utilities, and environmental protection (Amabile, 2020; Bag et al., 2021; H1c is not supported in developed countries, Canada and Turkey. Hence,
Füller et al., 2022). However, there are also concerns because, as H1c is supported21 overall, and developing countries are anticipated to
anticipated, AI might outperform humans. Taking into account both show better performance22 in achieving SDG3 compared to developed
these positive and negative aspects of AI (Lee et al., 2022), I created a countries. Hence, H4c, which proposed that better institutional ar­
model based on TEF (theoretical framework) to predict the effects of AI- rangements in developed countries help them perform better in
based Innovation on SDGs using a System Dynamics Perspective in a achieving AI-based innovation and resultant better SDG3, is not wholly
cross-country setting. The results of hypotheses tests based on this model supported. This is consistent with the finding of Li et al. (2021) that AI
are summarized in Table 18 in the Appendix. When most of the 22 can improve healthcare in the resource-limited settings typically found
countries (except for a few) supported a hypothesis, a hypothesis is in developing countries.
considered to be ‘supported.’ On the other hand, when only half of the Fourth, H2a, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9)
countries supported a hypothesis, a hypothesis is considered to be positively influences SDG4 (quality education), is supported by the
‘partially supported.’ Otherwise, a hypothesis is not supported. estimated results for 2023–2030 for some developed (e.g., Australia,
First, since 2022 was affected by COVID-19, I have considered it an Canada, New Zealand, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) and devel­
exceptional case for all the SDGs’ achievements. Goodell (2020) sup­ oping countries (e.g., Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Bangladesh, and
ports this by arguing that the pandemic has sped up the adoption of AI Iran). These countries employ advanced digital platforms, AI, and big
and associated technologies in healthcare, education, and remote work, data to enhance education access and quality, fostering personalized and
potentially alleviating poverty. Hence, I can conclude that H1a, which inclusive learning, as supported by research illustrating AI’s positive
proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9) positively influences SDG1 influence on learning outcomes (Benzidia et al., 2021; Grijalvo et al.,
(poverty reduction), is overall supported for both developed and 2022). Yet, H2a is not supported by other developed (e.g., Japan, Ger­
developing countries. Countries are likely to perform better on SDG1 if many, Turkey, the USA, and France) and developing countries (Nigeria,
they utilize free digital platforms for financial management, Accounting China, India, Kenya, and Pakistan). Hence, H2a is partially supported.
Information Systems for financial education, and AI for economic data This aligns with Calabrese et al. (2023), who found that AI-based edu­
analysis, challenging populist views that charity and wealth redistri­ cation’s effectiveness may depend on specific cultural and social con­
bution alone can alleviate poverty (Keding and Meissner, 2021). texts, as well as policy frameworks. These results show that developed
Nevertheless, developed countries are expected to perform better in and developing countries are expected to perform similarly in achieving
achieving SDG1 than developing ones. Hence, H4a, which proposed that SDG4. Hence, H4d, which proposed that AI-based innovation helps
AI-based innovation helps developed countries achieve better results in developed countries to achieve better results in SDG4 due to better
SDG1 due to better institutional arrangements than developing coun­ institutional arrangements than developing countries, is not supported.
tries, is overall supported. This is consistent with the findings of Benzidia This contradicts the research of Füller et al. (2022), arguing that
et al. (2021), who reported that AI-based innovation can mitigate developing countries might struggle to adopt and implement AI-based
poverty by boosting economic growth, generating jobs, and improving innovations due to weaker institutional capacities.
social welfare. Fifth, H2b, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9) posi­
Second, H1b, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9) im­ tively influences SDG5 (gender equality), is supported by the estimated
pacts positively on SDG2 (zero hunger), is supported by some developed results for 2023–2030 for some developed (e.g., Japan, Russia,
(Australia, Germany, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) and Australia, the USA, the UK, the UAE, Canada, France, New Zealand,
developing countries (e.g., Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey) and developing countries (e.g., China,
Kenya, Egypt, Bangladesh, China, and India) based on 2023–2030 Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Kenya, Egypt, and Iran). These findings add
forecasting. The predicted success of these nations is due to regulations to a growing body of literature (e.g., Makridis and Han, 2021), high­
like food governance-related Agricultural Innovation Systems, healthy lighting the potential of AI-based innovation to promote gender equality
eating education, and risk warning systems (Keding and Meissner, and empower women and girls. These nations use AI with VR/AR to
2021), aligning with the findings of Elsayed et al. (2020) findings on AI’s empower women and girls economically and emotionally. They have
potential to enhance agricultural efficiency, safety, and productivity. also created AI-powered platforms to monitor hiring and policymaking
Nonetheless, H1b is not supported for other developed (e.g., France, for sexism, and forums to discuss improving laws to protect women and
New Zealand, Turkey, USA, and UK) and developing countries (Iran), girls (Makridis and Han, 2021). Still, H2b is not supported by other
emphasizing the role of context-specific factors, such as access to developed (e.g., Germany) and developing countries (e.g., Nigeria and
affordable labor (Gupta et al., 2020). Hence, H1b is partially supported Uzbekistan). Therefore, H2b is supported overall, as only three countries
overall, and developing countries are anticipated to show better per­ did not support the hypothesis. Moreover, since most developed coun­
formance20 in achieving SDG2 than developed countries. Hence, H4b, tries are anticipated to show better performance in achieving SDG5
which proposed that AI-based innovation helps developed countries to compared to developing countries, H4e, which proposed that the better
achieve better results in SDG2 due to better institutional arrangements institutional arrangements in developed countries help them perform
than developing countries, is not supported. This finding aligns with better in achieving AI-based innovation and resultant better SDG5, is
Zameer et al. (2020), indicating that factors beyond institutional ar­ supported, overall. This aligns with the research of Alarcón and Cole
rangements, such as resourceful innovative practices and comparative (2019), which noted higher gender equality achievement in developed
advantages like affordable labor, can also enable developing countries to countries compared to developing countries.
achieve zero hunger. Sixth, H3a, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9) posi­
Third, H1c, indicating that AI-based innovation (SDG9) positively tively influences SDG6 (clean water and sanitation for all), is supported
influences SDG3 (Good Health and Well-being), is corroborated by the by the estimated results for 2023–2030 for certain developed (e.g.,
estimated results for 2023–2030 for most developed and all developing Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE)
countries. These countries leverage AI in medical prediction and diag­ and developing countries (e.g., Egypt, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Vietnam,
nosis, healthcare training through VR, AR, and mobile apps, and use

21
Only two developed countries did not support H1c.
20 22
All developing countries except one are projected to show an increasing All developing countries are projected to show an increasing trend in the
trend in the period considered. period considered.

21
S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

Kenya, Bangladesh, China, and India). The findings of Kumar et al. interconnected Internet banking systems to combat digital and eco­
(2021) align with this, highlighting these countries’ policies, such as nomic divides. Nevertheless, H2c is not supported by other developed (e.
managing water infrastructure using an Automatic Identification System g., the USA, the UK, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Germany, New Zealand,
(AIS), IoT for water installation monitoring, and big data for water usage Turkey) and developing countries (e.g., Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Egypt,
analysis. Yet, H3a is not supported for other developed (e.g., the USA, Bangladesh, Iran, and India). Thus, H2c is not supported overall, as most
Canada, UK, New Zealand, and Turkey) and developing countries (e.g., countries do not support the hypothesis. However, since developed
Uzbekistan). Thus, H3a is partially supported. Moreover, since devel­ countries are anticipated to show better performance in achieving
oping countries are anticipated to show better performance in achieving SDG10 compared to developing countries, H4i, which proposed that the
SDG6 compared to developed countries, H4f, which proposed that better better institutional arrangements in developed countries help them
institutional arrangements in developed countries help them perform perform better in achieving AI-based innovation and resultant better
better in achieving AI-based innovation and resultant better SDG6, is not SDG10, is supported overall. Zallé (2019) supports this, suggesting that
supported. This contradicts the research of Fuenfschilling and Binz developed countries with superior institutional quality and efficient
(2018), which reported that developed countries with better institu­ governance structures can implement policies and initiatives to reduce
tional arrangements typically demonstrate higher technology-based inequality through social welfare programs, progressive tax systems,
innovation and consequent better achievement in SDG6. and targeted interventions in marginalized communities.
Seventh, H3b, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9) Tenth, H2d, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9) posi­
positively influences SDG7 (affordable and clean energy), is supported tively influences SDG11 (sustainable cities and communities), is sup­
by the estimated results for 2023–2030 for some developed (e.g., France, ported by the estimated results for 2023–2030 for some developed (e.g.,
New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, the UK, Australia, Japan, Germany, Turkey, Canada, the USA, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, and the UAE) and
and the USA) and developing countries (e.g., Egypt, Uzbekistan, Viet­ developing countries (e.g., India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kenya,
nam, Kenya, Bangladesh, China, and India). This is consistent with the and China). This is consistent with the findings of Ullah et al. (2021),
findings of Zhu et al. (2020), who further state that countries are using which highlight these countries’ implementation of smart cities with
blockchain technology to better monitor the return on investment in IoT-backed action plans for urban emergencies and the use of urban data
clean & renewable energy, automation to lower energy facility inspec­ blockchain technologies for recovery contingencies. Nevertheless, H2d
tion costs, and digital educational platforms for alternative energy use. is not supported by other developed (e.g., the UK, Germany, and Turkey)
Nevertheless, H3b is not supported by other developed (e.g., Russia, and developing countries (e.g., Uzbekistan, Nigeria, Japan, Saudi Ara­
Canada, and UAE) and developing countries (e.g., Pakistan, Iran, and bia, Egypt, and Iran). Hence, H2d is partially supported. However, since
Nigeria). Consequently, H3b is partially supported. Moreover, since developed countries are anticipated to show better performance in
both developed and developing countries are anticipated to show similar achieving SDG11 compared to developing countries, H4j, which pro­
performance in achieving SDG7, H4g, which proposed that better posed that the better institutional arrangements in developed countries
institutional arrangements in developed countries help them perform help them perform better in achieving AI-based innovation and resultant
better in achieving AI-based innovation and resultant better SDG7, is not better SDG11, is supported overall. This is supported by Gupta et al.
supported. This contradicts the research of Makridis and Han (2021), (2023), who found that developed countries with strong institutional
which states that better institutional quality, such as improved gover­ arrangements have better urban policies and governance structures,
nance and regulation, contributes to superior SDG7 achievement in resulting in better outcomes in sustainable urban development.
developed countries. Eleventh, H3c, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9)
Eighth, H1d, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9) positively influences SDG12 (responsible consumption and production),
positively influences SDG8 (decent work and economic growth), is is supported by the estimated results for 2023–2030 for one developing
supported by the estimated results for 2023–2030 for some developed country, namely, Vietnam. This is consistent with the findings of Wang
(e.g., France, New Zealand, UAE, Russia, the UK, Germany, and Turkey) et al. (2020), who state that countries showing good scores in achieving
and developing countries (e.g., Uzbekistan, Nigeria, Iran, Egypt, Kenya, SDG12 are implementing advice-rendering information systems for
Bangladesh, and China). This is consistent with the findings of Rodrí­ agricultural sustainability, environmental certification for global market
guez-Espíndola et al. (2022), who further state that these countries supply, robotics for ‘virtual’ experiments in manufacturing processes,
provide free platforms for professionals, independent contractors, and big data for manufacturing and consumption patterns, and AI-based
freelancers, creating new opportunities for decent work and economic sensing. However, H3c is not supported for most other developed (e.
growth. Still, H1d is not supported for other developed (e.g., Saudi g., Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia,
Arabia, Australia, the USA, Japan, and Canada) and developing coun­ France, Turkey, the USA, the UK, the UAE, and Russia) and developing
tries (e.g., Uzbekistan and Vietnam). Hence, H1d is partially supported. countries (e.g., Iran, India, Bangladesh, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt,
Moreover, since developing countries are anticipated to show better China, and Uzbekistan). Consequently, H3c is not supported. This is in
performance in achieving SDG8 compared to developed countries, H4h, line with the research by Dolezal and Novelli (2022), who found that the
which proposed that the better institutional arrangements in developed relationship between AI and sustainable development is complex and
countries help them perform better in achieving AI-based innovation context-specific, with mixed results across different countries. However,
and resultant better SDG8, is not supported. This is consistent with the since developing countries are anticipated to show better performance
findings of Fuenfschilling and Binz (2018), indicating a complex rela­ in achieving SDG12 compared to developed countries, H4k, which
tionship between institutional arrangements and SDG8, and that better proposed that the better institutional arrangements in developed coun­
institutional arrangements in developed countries do not necessarily tries help them perform better in achieving AI-based innovation and
guarantee better performance in achieving decent work and economic resultant better SDG12, is not supported. This is contradicted by the
growth. findings of Johansen and Vestvik (2020), who found that developed
Ninth, H2c, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9) posi­ countries tend to have better institutional arrangements for promoting
tively influences SDG10 (reduced inequality), is supported by the esti­ innovation, including financial support for research and development,
mated results for 2023–2030 for some developed (e.g., Japan, France, intellectual property protection, and policies that encourage responsible
Canada, Russia, and the UAE) and developing countries (e.g., Nigeria, consumption and production.
Kenya, and China). This is in line with the findings of Garg et al. (2022), Twelfth, H3d, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9)
who further state that these countries are consistently implementing positively influences SDG13 (climate action), is supported by the esti­
measures such as accessible digital platforms for learning, smart terri­ mated results for 2023–2030 for some developed (e.g., France,
tories to encourage citizens’ participation in urban decisions, and Australia, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Canada, Turkey, the UAE, the

22
S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

UK, the USA, Saudi Arabia, and Russia) and developing countries (e.g., et al., 2022).
Nigeria, Egypt, and Vietnam). As Kumar et al. (2020) note, these Fifteenth, H2e, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9)
countries utilize digital tools for environmental education, advanced AI positively influences SDG16 (peace, justice and strong institutions), is
for survival education, smart cities for pollution reduction, and AI with supported by the estimated results for 2023–2030 for some developed
robotics for environmental monitoring. However, H3d is not supported (e.g., France, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Japan, Russia, and Turkey) and
by developing countries (e.g., Uzbekistan, China, India, Kenya, developing countries (e.g., Iran, China, Egypt, Pakistan, Vietnam, and
Bangladesh, Iran, and Pakistan). Hence, H3d is partially supported. This Uzbekistan). This is consistent with the findings of Klofsten et al. (2019),
finding is consistent with other studies conducted by Di Vaio et al. who further state that these nations are implementing digital educa­
(2020), who also found challenges for developing countries in fully tional platforms and integrated digital criminal evidence systems, and
embracing AI-based innovation for sustainable development. Moreover, using AI in conjunction with drones, IoT, and blockchain to create in­
since developed countries are expected to outperform developing tegrated crime-fighting tools and combat institutional corruption.
countries in achieving SDG13, H4l, which proposed that the better Nevertheless, H2e is not supported by other developed (e.g., Australia,
institutional arrangements in developed countries help them perform the UK, Canada, the USA, Germany, and New Zealand) and developing
better in achieving AI-based innovation and resultant better SDG13, is countries (e.g., India, Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria). Therefore, H2e
supported. This is consistent with the findings of Johansen and Vestvik is partially supported. However, since developing countries are antici­
(2020), who reported that institutional factors in developed countries, pated to show better performance in achieving SDG16 than developed
such as congenial government support, innovation policies, and intel­ countries, H4o, which proposed that the better institutional arrange­
lectual property rights, significantly influence the successful imple­ ments in developed countries help them perform better in achieving AI-
mentation of AI-based innovation for climate action-related sustainable based innovation and resultant better SDG16, is not supported. This is
development. supported by some recent literature (e.g., Chimhowu et al., 2019)
Thirteenth, H3e, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9) finding that developing countries may outperform developed countries
positively influences SDG14 (Life below water), is supported by the in achieving SDG16, despite having comparatively weaker institutional
estimated results for 2023–2030 for some developed (e.g., Germany, the arrangements.
UK, the USA, and France) and developing countries (e.g., Iran, and Sixteenth, H2f, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9)
Pakistan). This is in line with the findings of Wang et al. (2020), who positively influences SDG17 (partnerships for the goals), is supported by
further state that these countries are using AI-based drones and IoT to the estimated results for 2023–2030 for some developed (e.g., New
expose predatory fishing and environmental damage (e.g., plastic Zealand, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and Turkey) and
dumped into the sea). Big data and AIS for research as well as marine developing countries (e.g., India, Iran, China, Nigeria, Pakistan, Viet­
resource protection, were other measures. However, H3e is not sup­ nam, and Uzbekistan). This parallels the study by Klofsten et al. (2019),
ported for other developed (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Japan, Canada, New who state that these nations use virtual platforms for planning innova­
Zealand, Russia, the UAE, and Turkey) and developing countries (e.g., tion, VR/AR for educational and international alliances, and AI with big
Uzbekistan, China, India, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Kenya). Thus, data for national development. Nevertheless, H2f is not supported by
H3e is not supported, as most countries do not support this hypothesis. developed (e.g., Russia, the USA, Saudi Arabia, the UK, and the UAE)
This finding is in line with previous research (e.g., Johansen and Vestvik, and developing countries (e.g., Egypt, Bangladesh, and Kenya). Hence,
2020) that noted the challenges in achieving SDG14, particularly in H2f is partially supported. Nevertheless, since developing countries are
developing countries where there may be limited resources and insti­ anticipated to show better performance in achieving SDG17 than
tutional arrangements. Moreover, since developed and developing developed countries, H4p, which proposed that the better institutional
countries are forecast to show almost similar performance in achieving arrangements in developed countries help them perform better in
SDG14, H4m, which proposed that better institutional arrangements in achieving AI-based innovation and resultant better SDG17, is not sup­
developed countries help them achieve better AI-based innovation and ported. This is supported by the findings of Chimhowu et al. (2019), who
resultant better SDG14, is not supported. Gupta et al. (2023) corroborate state that AI-based innovation can help to identify gaps in existing
these findings, stating that developing countries are progressing towards partnerships, highlight areas for potential collaboration, and facilitate
SDG14 despite the challenges, with technology transfer and capacity the sharing of information and resources among stakeholders.
building playing crucial roles in promoting sustainable development.
Fourteenth, H3f, which proposed that AI-based innovation (SDG9) 5.2. Contributions and implications to research
positively influences SDG15 (Life on land), is supported by the estimated
results for 2023–2030 for some developed (e.g., Australia, Canada, the 5.2.1. Theoretical contributions
UAE, the UK, France, and the USA) and developing countries (e.g., This paper makes several theoretical contributions by addressing the
Uzbekistan). This corroborates the findings by Kazancoglu et al. (2021), research gap articulated in the introduction. First, this study used
who further state that these nations are using AI to optimize plantation- Fountain’s (2001) TEF model to examine how institutional, organiza­
related water consumption and IoT-enabled smart sensors for real-time tional, technical, and situational variables affect SDG attainment across
detection. They use aerial imagery and robotics to detect crop diseases countries. As part of that model, this paper demonstrates the impact of
and early fires using machine learning. Nevertheless, H3f is not sup­ particular institutional arrangements and organizational structures on
ported for other developed (e.g., Japan, Germany, Russia, Turkey, New the consequent technology’s characteristics (enacted technologies). The
Zealand, and Saudi Arabia) and developing countries (e.g., Vietnam, paper demonstrates the dynamic relationships between implemented
Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Iran, Kenya, and Nigeria). technology (innovation), organizational forms (AI adoption), and insti­
Consequently, H3f is not supported, as most countries do not support tutional arrangements (country-specific contextual factors). In the cur­
this hypothesis. However, since developed countries are anticipated to rent model (theory), technology enactments (innovation) are created
show better performance in achieving SDG15 than developing countries, through a dynamic process in which organizational characteristics (AI
H4n, which proposed that the better institutional arrangements in adoption) or the presence of valid formal procedures (institutional ar­
developed countries help them perform better in achieving AI-based rangements) may either facilitate or impede a given enactment (char­
innovation and resultant better SDG15, is supported. This aligns with acteristics of the technology). Along these lines, the study’s key findings
previous research that indicates that (developed) countries with better appear to be consistent with what many consider to be the need to
institutional arrangements tend to perform better in achieving the sus­ integrate innovation with essential complementary resources (such as
tainable coexistence of plants and animals on land through smart utili­ AI) to increase the value of these technologies in achieving sustainability
zation of AI-based innovation compared to developing countries (Yin (Bag et al., 2021). Hence, this study’s key theoretical contribution is to

23
S. Nahar Technological Forecasting& Social Change 201 (2024) 123203

extend TEF to demonstrate the coexistence of AI and creativity in innovation for the SDGs. Accordingly, governments should allocate re­
accomplishing SDGs. As a result, this study’s most significant theoretical sources for developing AI technologies relevant to their specific SDG-
contribution is to present an extension of TEF that illustrates the co- related challenges. Fourth, Governments can invest in capacity-
existence of AI and innovation in accomplishing SDGs. Secondly, building programs to develop the skills needed to harness the poten­
although the roles played by these constructs may vary depending on the tial of AI for the SDGs. This will ensure they have the expertise to
context and each of these constructs has been studied separately in the develop and implement AI-driven solutions effectively. Fifth, Govern­
past, studying their interaction is novel and makes a substantial ments can use the model presented in the study to monitor and evaluate
contribution to the existing literature on AI, Innovation, Sustainable the impact of AI-driven innovations on the SDGs. This will help to
Development, System Dynamics, SDGs, and the TEF literature. It is identify areas that require improvement and guide the development of
worth mentioning that examining any of these constructs independently more effective measures. Sixth, the model uses a cross-country setting,
may result in a limited comprehension of the SDG achievement process indicating that the impact of AI-driven innovations on SDGs is not
as a whole, as per prior research (Luna-Reyes and Gil-Garcia, 2011; limited to one country. Decision-makers should use this insight to
Malodia et al., 2021). Thirdly, this study also adds to the existing compare their country’s progress against other countries and identify
literature on AI, Innovation, and SDGs by fostering fresh viewpoints on priority areas for improvement. Governments should also collaborate
the impact of AI-based innovation on SDGs at different levels. At the 1st with other countries to share best practices, experiences, and in­
level, the direct impact of innovation on SDGs was investigated. At the novations in AI-driven sustainable development. Seventh, the study
2nd level, the “enabling effects” of AI on innovation were investigated in emphasizes the importance of data-driven decision-making in achieving
its causal impact on SDGs. At the 3rd level, the long-term impact of AI- the SDGs. Governments can use the model’s predictions and recom­
based innovation on SDGs was estimated. Also, this study makes an mendations to make informed decisions backed by data and evidence.
original contribution to the SDG and sustainability literature by exam­
ining the intricate relationship between SDG9 (innovation-related SDG) 5.2.3. Policy implications
and the other SDGs. Fourthly, the paper proposes a comprehensive The paper makes several policy contributions. First, the study dem­
model that integrates the effects of AI-based innovation on SDGs using a onstrates the potential of AI-based innovations in achieving the SDGs.
system dynamics perspective. This model takes into account the com­ Governments can use this information to integrate AI-driven solutions
plex interconnections and feedback loops between various aspects of AI- into national development plans. This can help to identify the need for
based innovation and SDGs, which have not previously been explored in resources for implementing AI-driven innovations that will significantly
a systematic way. Fifthly, this study also enhances the literature on impact on the SDGs. Second, the paper’s model provides decision-
system dynamics by exploring how Systems Dynamics can be employed makers with a fact-based assessment of the impact of AI-based innova­
for forecasting complex problems of interaction between AI, innovation, tion on SDGs. This can help associated governments in 22 countries
and SDGs for around a decade for 22 different nations covering five establish efficient long-term policies and measures for sustainable
different continents. In fact, this paper combines institutional theory development in the economic, social, and environmental domains. This
(Technology Enactment Framework) and system dynamics to explain can help to identify potential challenges and opportunities for different
complex SDG achievement. Very few previous studies have utilized this countries and develop targeted policies and interventions addressing
methodology. This is another contribution of this paper. Sixthly, this their needs. Third, policymakers can use the model to identify and pri­
whole analysis has been done from a comparative perspective between oritize the most promising AI-driven innovations based on their poten­
developed and developing countries. Therefore, it contributes to the tial to contribute to the SDGs. Fourth, the paper can help policymakers
literature relating to developed and developing countries. Finally, this and entrepreneurs interested in creating new markets for SDG-related
research combines institutional theory (technology enactment frame­ products, such as electricity, agriculture, legal, social, and urban ser­
work) with simulations based on system dynamics to better understand vices. The study provides insights into the potential impact of AI-based
SDG phenomena. Institutional theory is strong, but its theoretical innovation on these sectors and can help experts prioritize their in­
abstraction has questioned its application. Institutional theory and sys­ vestments in these areas. Fifth, this study can also be used as a reference
tem dynamics may help researchers precisely define variables and hy­ by policymakers to help them plan their new AI investments more
pothesized linkages. Mathematical accuracy in computer simulation effectively and spur more innovation for the SDGs. Sixth, the findings of
requires variables to be conceptually and theoretically operationalized this study can help policymakers and entrepreneurs identify new op­
to develop a system dynamics model. Thus, institutional theory’s portunities for collaboration in terms of AI-based innovation in the field
complexity and critical notions are explored, while the approach’s ca­ of sustainable development in various developed and developing
pacity to operationalize and interpret them concretely is retained. As nations.
previously stated, the simulation model may be regarded as a theory and
assessed for internal consistency. 5.2.4. Social implications
Since AI-related concerns are both complex and multidimensional,
5.2.2. Practical implications the findings of this study are consistent with the idea and context of ‘AI
The paper makes several practical contributions. First, although the for Good.’ Therefore, the study’s predictions suggest that we should use
SDGs (which represent an economic opportunity worth 12 trillion dol­ AI to improve people’s lives and reduce inequalities. All sustainable
lars) promise improved financial performance, it can be complicated to development initiatives should have human survival and growth as their
make the goals tangible at the business level because of the sheer end goal. Using the SDGs as a framework for understanding sustainable
magnitude of the SDGs (United Nations, 2022a). If used wisely, AI-based development, it has been demonstrated that linking AI-based innovation
innovation can provide businesses with the foundation for the prioriti­ to the SDGs can shed light on solving the significant challenges faced by
zation of SDGs and enable them to translate global goals down to an AI, such as ensuring the safety and dignity of individuals. In terms of
organizational level (Lee et al., 2022). Second, this study elucidates the obvious global concerns, the World Economic Forum has identified
need for collaboration among academia, industry, and government for cybersecurity as a top concern (World Economic Forum, 2020). As a
SDG-supporting technology advances to meet the SDG 2030 objective. I result of this research, policymakers in newly industrialized and dem­
emphasize the importance of these players making more investments in ocratic societies in developing nations may focus on transparency,
AI-driven innovation and giving access to high-quality data for this ethics, and full citizen involvement as cornerstones of effective AI
purpose. Cleaner manufacturing is particularly vital for sustainable governance. The SDGs are based on universal principles like diversity,
economic and environmental reasons. Third, the study highlights the inclusion, and ‘leaving no one behind,’ and my findings align with those
need for continued investment in AI research and development to spur principles.

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5.3. Limitations and avenues for further research Alarcón, D.M., Cole, S., 2019. No sustainability for tourism without gender equality.
J. Sustain. Tour. 27 (7), 903–919. https://doi.org/10.1080/
09669582.2019.1588283.
The study has certain limitations, which suggest avenues for future Amabile, T.M., 2020. Creativity, artificial intelligence, and a world of surprises. Acad.
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sustainable manufacturing practices and circular economy capabilities. Technol.
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regions. Future research can concentrate on specific nations and eval­ artificial intelligence on green supply chain process integration and hospital
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seem too ambitious without input from other sources, like qualitative Dyn. Rev. 29 (2), 70–86. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1496.
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artificial intelligence method to study how sustainability and industry 4.0 are
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what the potential barriers are to this relationship. Seventh, future planning and global development goals: processes and partnerships. World Dev. 120,
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research should consider the interdependence of SDGs and how the Cockburn, I.M., Henderson, R., Stern, S., 2019. 4. In: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence
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CRediT authorship contribution statement Cosenz, F., Rodrigues, V.P., Rosati, F., 2020. Dynamic business modeling for
sustainability: exploring a system dynamics perspective to develop sustainable
Sharmin Nahar: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, business models. Bus. Strateg. Environ. 29 (2), 651–664. https://doi.org/10.1002/
bse.2395.
Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Validation, Visualiza­ de Sousa Jabbour, A.B.L., Ndubisi, N.O., Seles, Roman Pais, B. M., 2020. Sustainable
tion, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. development in Asian manufacturing SMEs: Progress and directions. Int. J. Prod.
Econ. 225, 107567 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2019.107567.
Del Vecchio, P., Secundo, G., Maruccia, Y., Passiante, G., 2019. A system dynamic
approach for the smart mobility of people: implications in the age of big data.
Declaration of competing interest
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 149, 119771 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
techfore.2019.119771.
I confirm that I do not have any ties or engagement with any orga­ Demiralay, S., Gencer, H.G., Bayraci, S., 2021. How do artificial intelligence and robotics
stocks co-move with traditional and alternative assets in the age of the 4th industrial
nization or entity that has a financial or non-financial interest in the
revolution? Implications and Insights for the COVID-19 period. Technol. Forecast.
topics or materials explored in this manuscript. Additionally, no orga­ Soc. Chang. 171, 120989 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120989.
nizations have provided assistance, financial or otherwise, for the work Dhahri, S., Slimani, S., Omri, A., 2021. Behavioral entrepreneurship for achieving the
submitted. sustainable development goals. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 165, 120561 https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120561.
Di Vaio, A., Palladino, R., Hassan, R., Escobar, O., 2020. Artificial intelligence and
Data availability business models in the sustainable development goals perspective: a systematic
literature review. J. Bus. Res. 121, 283–314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
jbusres.2020.08.019.
Data will be made available on request. Dolezal, C., Novelli, M., 2022. Power in community-based tourism: empowerment and
partnership in Bali. J. Sustain. Tour. 30 (10), 2352–2370. https://doi.org/10.1080/
09669582.2020.1838527.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Elsayed, M., Ran, Y., Ai, P., Azab, M., Mansour, A., Jin, K., Zhang, Y., Abomohra, A.E.-F.,
2020. Innovative integrated approach of biofuel production from agricultural wastes
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Sharmin Nahar is a lecturer at Lancaster University Management School (LUMS), Lan­
https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/2030agenda-sdgs.html.
caster University. Her research areas include Technology Management, Innovation, Sus­
Wang, C., Zhan, J., Xin, Z., 2020. Comparative analysis of urban ecological management
tainability, Networks, Entrepreneurship in emerging economies, Gender, and Business
models incorporating low-carbon transformation. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
performance. She has published in a number of reputed journals (including Technological
159, 120190 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120190.
Forecasting and Social Change) and conferences. She also holds several years of consul­
WIPO, 2022. Global Innovation Index 2021. WIPO. https://www.wipo.int/publications/
tancy and industry experience in the Telecommunication sector and sustainable entre­
en/details.jsp?id=4622.
preneurship development projects, respectively.
World Economic Forum, 2017. Which countries are achieving the UN Sustainable
Development Goals Fastest? World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/
agenda/2017/03/countries-achieving-un-sustainable-development-goals-fastest/.

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