SCNC1111

Scientific Method and Reasoning

Lecture 1
The Scientific Method

Dr. William M.Y. Cheung

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 What is Science?
• Is Chinese medicine scientific?

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 Common Features of Science Subjects?
• Some possible answers:
1. They try to understand the Nature.
(Then how about Engineering?)
2. They carry out experiments.
(But why are experiments important?)
3. They want to be quantitative and use a lot of
Mathematics.
(Again why do we need all these numbers and
Mathematical theorems?)
4. They all adopt the Scientific Method.
The most important criterion for being Science

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 Scientific Method
• Then what is this “Scientific Method”?
– it is a “good” procedure to carry out scientific study, as
agreed upon by the Science community
• so good that following the Scientific Method has become the basic
requirement for being Science
– it is independent of what you are trying to study
• from this perspective there is no reason why Science has to be
limited to studies of the physical world
• Social Sciences? Political Sciences? Management Science?

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Feynman on Scientific Method

I am sorry, but still

what is this
Scientific Method?

Alright, let me tell

you about that!

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 Who is This Guy?
• Richard P. Feynman
– got the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1965
– a key player in the US Manhattan Project to
construct the atomic bomb during WWII
– “famous” for picking locks
– Professor at the California Institute of
Technology
– also famous for being a vivid teacher: (Source:
http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_priz
es/physics/laureates/1965/feynman-
Feynman Lecture on Physics bio.html)

• https://youtu.be/0KmimDq4cSU
(0:00 – 3:46)
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So What has Feynman Told us?
Hypothesis Make a guess!

Prediction
See if they agree!
Compute the
consequences Experimental
of our guess!
Test

Confirmation
or Falsification
 Another Step
• To be picky, Feynman skipped one step at the
beginning
– How do you make a guess? Based on what?
– Observations!
• record what can be seen, heard, etc. (the senses!) as detailed as
possible and without prejudice
• statements of the world through the careful use of the observer’s
senses

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 Examples of Scientific Observations
Examples adapted from A.F. Chalmers, What is
this thing called Science? (Milton Keynes, 1978)

At 12 midnight on 1st June 2012,

Venus appeared at such and such
a position in the sky. (astronomy)

That straw, partially immersed

in water, appears bent. (optics)

Source: wikipedia
 Examples of Scientific Observations
Examples adapted from A.F. Chalmers, What is
this thing called Science? (Milton Keynes, 1978)

At 12 midnight on 1st June 2012,

All observation statements derive from an
Venus appeared at such and such
observer’s use of his senses at a particular
a position in the sky. (astronomy)

place and time

That straw, partially immersed

in water, appears bent. (optics)

Source: wikipedia
 Items of Scientific Knowledge

When a ray of light passes from one

medium to another, it changes
direction. (optics)

That straw, partially immersed

in water, appears bent. (optics)

Source: wikipedia
 Items of Scientific Knowledge

At 12 midnight on 1st June 2012,

Venus appeared at such and such
a position in the sky. (astronomy)

Planets move in ellipses around

the sun. (astronomy)

Source: wikipedia
 Items of Scientific Knowledge

At 12 midnight on 1st June 2012,

The laws and theories that make up scientific
Venus appeared at such and such
knowledge govern all events of a particular
a position in the sky. (astronomy)

kind at all places and all times

Planets move in ellipses around

the sun. (astronomy)

Source: wikipedia
 How do Scientists Arrive at General Laws and
Theories?
• Scientists generalize from singular observation
statements to universal laws:
– From observations of the behaviour of heated metals to
the law ‘all metals expand when heated’.
– From observations of planetary motion to the law ‘all
planets move in ellipses’.
• This is known as inductive reasoning and it must
normally fulfill certain conditions:
– The number of observation statements must be large.
– The observations must be repeated under a wide variety
of conditions.
 Inductive Reasoning
An example of induction:
All students
1. Alice on my course gets grade A. on my course
get a
2. Bob on my course gets grade A too.
grade A.

Are you sure? Every

student?
Another Example of Induction

What
would you
want to
say? We will
𝜋
ALWAYS get 2
for integrals of
this form!

Not true!
Caution about Mathematical Induction
• What is Mathematical Induction?

I would like to show that a proposition is

true for all positive integer n.

• 1. Show that the proposition is true for n = 1.

• 2. Show that:
– Every time when the proposition is true for a certain
integer k,
– the proposition is also true for k + 1.

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Caution about Mathematical Induction

• A sea lion is not a lion although it is called a “lion”.

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 More Clarification
• By Induction, we mean:
– we have observed the same phenomenon under many
different instances,
– then we try to write down a general hypothesis that
captures all these observations.
• For example, Induction
1. Alice on my course gets grade A.

2. Bob on my course gets grade A too. All students

on my course
3. Carol on my course gets grade A too. get a
grade A.
4. Daniel on my course gets grade A too.

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 Is Induction Involved Here?
• How about this one?
– Observation: Each of Alice, Bob, Carol and Daniel is walking
with a briefcase next to them.
Abductive reasoning
– Hypothesis: They must all be going to the airport to take a
flight.
• NO, this is NOT induction
– although a hypothesis has been generated from the
observation.
– But here we are not generalizing from many observations.
– The above hypothesis is just a proposed explanation for
the observation.

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 Induction Versus Abduction
1. Aaron is soaked wet when he forgot to bring umbrella.
Everyone is
2. Betty is soaked wet when she forgot to bring umbrella. soaked wet when
3. Cindy is soaked wet when she forgot to bring umbrella. they forgot to
bring umbrella.
4. Danny is soaked wet when he forgot to bring umbrella.
Suggest that the
Recognize a pattern Induction same pattern
applies to more
people
1. Aaron is soaked wet and it is raining outside.
Everyone must
2. Betty is soaked wet and it is raining outside have forgotten to
bring their
3. Cindy is soaked wet and it is raining outside.
umbrellas.
4. Danny is soaked wet and it is raining outside.
This is not
Abduction following the
What would be the conclusion if Induction is applied? pattern on the
left hand side.
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Predictions and Deductive Reasoning

• Once we have arrived at general laws and theories

(i.e. hypothesis), these can be used to make
predictions, which can be tested through further
observations.
• Because these laws and theories are general, we can
use them to deduce specific consequences.
The kind of reasoning involved in inferences of this
kind is called deductive reasoning.
 Deductive Reasoning
A valid deduction:
You will
1. All students on my courses get grade A get a
grade A
2. You are a student on my course

An invalid deduction:
You will
1. Many students on my courses get grade A get a
grade A
2. You are a student on my course

So unlike Induction, we do not allow any “guesswork” in Deduction!

 More on Deduction
1. All planets revolve around the Earth. Pluto revolves
around the
2. Pluto is a planet. Earth.
premises conclusion
Deduction
A property of a valid deduction:
If the premises are correct, then the conclusion must be correct.
But
1. The premises need not be correct.
2. Whether the thought process is a deduction does NOT depend on the
correctness of the premises.
 Prediction According to the Scientific Method

I can test the

hypothesis by
performing an
experiment!

Consider the following trivial scientific argument:

My computer
1. Electronic devices need electricity to work will need
electricity to
2. My computer is an electronic device
work

http://philosophy-of-doctors.blogsppot.com
 Falsification, or Confirmation

• If my computer does not need electricity to work,

then my theory is false:
– I should return to the observational phase.
• If my computer does need electricity to work, then
my theory is supported:
– Continue to derive other deductive consequences and test
them with an experiment.
– Come up with an even more general theory.
 (Dis)Proving Theories
• https://youtu.be/0KmimDq4cSU
(3:46 – 5:09)
• So what has Feynman told us this time?
1. Compare Predictions from your Theory with
Experimental Tests as much as possible
2. Theories can only be falsified
– when its predictions disagree with experimental tests
3. We are never sure if a theory is 100% correct
– maybe we just have not seen its discrepancies yet

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 Summary of the Idealized Scientific Method
Observation

(Generalization via
Induction, Hypothesis
or Abduction)

Prediction
(Deduction)

Experimental
Test

Confirmation
or Falsification

This rough sketch of scientific method should not be taken too

literally!
 An Example from Cosmology
• What is Cosmology?
– the study of the Universe as a whole
– typical questions of interest:
 What is the shape of the Universe?
 How did the Universe look like in the past, and what will
its future be?

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 Our Case
• Steven Weinberg
– got Nobel Prize in Physics in 1979
– renowned theorist in particle physics, cosmology
– wrote the book "The First Three Minutes" that
discusses the condition of the early Universe

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 Weinberg's Story
from The First Three Minutes, Chapter 1:

"I remember that ... in the 1950s, the study of the early
universe was widely regarded as not the sort of thing to
which a respectable scientist would devote his time.

Nor was this Judgement unreasonable.

Throughout most of the history of modern physics and

astronomy, there simply has not existed an adequate
observational and theoretical foundation on which to
build a history of the early universe."
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 Observations in Cosmology
• Why is so?
– for a long period of time it has been difficult to make
measurements about the Universe with useful level of
accuracy
– free to construct your favourite theories (cannot falsify
them anyway!)
 In recent decades
– precise measurements of the Universe becomes possible,
e.g. the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation
– better theoretical predictions also become available with
the use of computer simulation

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