Uncertainty-training
Uncertainty-training
Uncertainty in
Measurements
Traceability and
Uncertainty
Accurate instruments
Traceability to national standards
An understanding of uncertainty
Application of good measurement
practice
There are many factors that
can cause inaccuracy:
Environmental effects
Inferior measuring equipment
Poor measuring techniques
What is the difference between
ACCURACY and PRECISION?
The difference between accuracy and
precision is illustrated below by 4 different
archers… each with varying degree of ability.
The bull's-eye in the target represents the true
value of a measurement.
Why does uncertainty matter?
Calculating and expressing uncertainty is important to anybody wishing
to make good quality measurements.
It is also crucial where uncertainty can influence a pass or failure in a
particular test, and must therefore be reported on a calibration
certificate.
Inaccurate and imprecise (unrepeatable)
Stone age man missed
the bull's-eye and the 3
attempts were not near
each other
Precise but inaccurate
Robin Hood's Merry
Man missed the bull's-
eye but the 3 attempts
were near each
other.
Suppose you have a set of 10 readings. To find the average, add them
together and divide by the number of values (10 in this case).
The readings are: 16, 19, 18, 16, 17, 19, 20, 15, 17 and 13
The sum of these is: 170
The average of the 10 readings is: 170 = 17
10
3.5 Spread ... standard deviation
When repeated measurements give different results, we want
to know how widely spread the readings are. The spread of
values tells us something about the uncertainty of a
measurement.
By knowing how large this spread is, we can begin to judge the
quality of the measurement or the set of measurements.
The usual way to quantify spread is standard deviation.
The standard deviation of a set of numbers tells us about how
different the individual readings typically are from the average of
the set.
As a ‘rule of thumb’, roughly two thirds of all readings will fall
between plus and minus (±) one standard deviation of the
average. Roughly 95% of all readings will fall within two
standard deviations. This ‘rule’ applies widely although it is
by no means universal.
The ‘true’ value for the standard deviation can only be found
from a very large (infinite) set of readings. From a moderate
number of values, only an estimate of the standard deviation can
be found. The symbol s is usually used for the estimated
standard deviation.
the more readings you use, the better the estimate will
be. In this case it is the estimate of
uncertainty that improves with the number of readings
(not the estimate of the mean or ‘end
result’). In ordinary situations 10 readings is enough.
For a more thorough estimate, the results
should be adjusted to take into account the number of
readings.
4 Where do errors and uncertainties come from?
This equation can also be used (in exactly the same form) for a case where the
result is a quotient of two values (i.e. one number divided by another, for
example,length divided by width). In other words, this form of the equation
covers all cases where the operations are multiplication or division.
7.2.3 Summation in quadrature for more complicated
functions
Where a value is squared (e.g. Z2) in the calculation of the final
measurement result, then the
relative uncertainty due to the squared component is in the form
You would look at all the possible sources of uncertainty and estimate the
magnitude of each. Let us say that in this case:
• The tape measure has been calibrated. It needs no correction, but the
calibration uncertainty is 0.1 percent of reading, at a coverage factor k = 2
(for a normal distribution). In this case, 0.1 percent of 5.017 m is close to 5
mm. Dividing by 2 gives the standard uncertainty (for k = 1) to be u = 2.5 mm.
• The divisions on the tape are millimetres. Reading to the nearest division
gives an error of no more than ±0.5 mm. We can take this to be a uniformly
distributed uncertainty (the true readings could lie variously anywhere in the 1
mm interval - i.e.±0.5 mm). To find the standard uncertainty, u, we divide the
half-width (0.5 mm) by√3, giving u = 0.3 mm, approximately.
• The tape lies straight, but let us suppose the string unavoidably has a few
slight bends in it. Therefore the measurement is likely to underestimate the
actual length of the
string. Let us guess that the under estimate is about 0.2 percent, and that the
uncertainty in this is also 0.2 percent at most. That means we should correct
the result by adding 0.2 percent (i.e. 10 mm). The uncertainty is assumed to be
uniformly distributed, in the absence of better information. Dividing the half-
width of the uncertainty (10 mm) by √3 gives the standard uncertainty u = 5.8
mm (to the nearest 0.1 mm).
• The standard deviation tells us about how repeatable the placement of the
tape measure is, and how much this contributes to the uncertainty of the mean
value. The estimated standard deviation of the mean of the 10 readings is
found
Step 4. Calculate the result of your measurement (including
any known corrections for things such as calibration). The
result comes from the mean reading, together with the correction
needed for the string lying slightly crookedly,
i.e. 5.017 m + 0.010 m = 5.027 m.
Step 8. Write down the measurement result and the uncertainty, and state
how you got both of these.
You might record: ‘The length of the string was 5.027 m ±0.013 m. The
reported expanded uncertainty is based on a standard uncertainty multiplied by
a coverage factor k = 2, providing a level of confidence of approximately 95%.
‘The reported length is the mean of 10 repeated measurements of the string
laid horizontally. The result is corrected for the estimated effect of the string not
lying completely straight when measured. The uncertainty was estimated
according to the method in
9.2 Analysis of uncertainty - preadsheet model
In Case (a), both the result and the uncertainty fall inside the specified limits. This
is classed as a ‘compliance’.
In Case (d), neither the result nor any part of the uncertainty band falls within the
specified limits. This is classed as a ‘non-compliance’.
Cases (b) and (c) are neither completely inside nor outside the limits. No firm
conclusion about compliance can be made.
11 How to reduce uncertainty in measurement
• Calibrate measuring instruments (or have them calibrated for you) and
use the calibration corrections which are given on the certificate.
• Make corrections to compensate for any (other) errors you know about.
• Make your measurements traceable to national standards
• Choose the best measuring instruments, and use calibration facilities
with the smallest uncertainties.
• Check measurements by repeating them, or by getting someone else to
repeat them from time to time, or use other kinds of checks. Checking by
a different method may be best of all.
• Check calculations, and where numbers are copied from one place to
another, check this too.
• Use an uncertainty budget to identify the worst uncertainties, and
address these.
• Be aware that in a successive chain of calibrations, the uncertainty
increases at every step of the chain.
12 Some other good measurement practices
A calculator is useful for complicated arithmetic, but it can also be a source of error.
Calculators can make mistakes! In particular, they can
sometimes give unexpected results when dealing with very
long numbers. For example, some calculators would wrongly
give:
0.000 000 2 × 0.000 000 2 = 0 (exactly),
when the correct answer is 0.000 000 000 000 04. (Of course,
this would be better expressed
as 2×10-7 × 2×10-7 = 4×10-14.) Even computers can suffer
from this form of rounding error.
To identify this problem, spreadsheet software should be
checked by running through a typical calculation ‘by hand’ to
make sure both methods agree. To avoid these problems with
rounding, it is good practice to work with ‘transformed’ numbers
in your calculations (this is sometimes called ‘scaling’ or
‘coding the data’).
Example 4: Find the average and estimated standard
deviation of 1.000 000 03, 1.000 000 06 and 1.000 000 12
Working in whole numbers, you can find the average of 3, 6
and 12 (which is 7), and then deduce that the average of the
original numbers is 1.000 000 07.
Step by step: you subtract the whole number (1) from
1.000 000 03, 1.000 000 06 and 1.000 000 12, giving
13.4 Rounding
Calculators and spreadsheets can give an answer to many decimal places.
There are some recommended practices for rounding the results:
e.g. 20.1 cm ± 0.2 cm.
• Use a meaningful degree of rounding in calculations. The uncertainty in a
measurement result may define how many decimal places you should report.
For example, if the uncertainty in your result is in the first decimal place, then
the measurement result should probably also be stated to one decimal place,
• Make your calculations to at least one more significant figure
than you eventually require. Be aware of how many significant
figures you need to use when multiplying or dividing or carrying
out more complex calculations.
accuracy
closeness of the agreement between measurement result and
true value. (Accuracy is a qualitative term only.)
bias (of a measuring instrument)
systematic error of the indication of a measuring instrument
calibration
comparison of an instrument against a reference or standard, to
find any errors in the values indicated by the instrument. In
some cases, calibration assigns a relationship between the
input and output of an instrument; for example, calibration of a
resistance thermometer could relate its output (in ohms) to an
input temperature (in degrees Celsius, or in kelvins).
confidence level
number (e.g. 95 %) expressing the degree of confidence in a
result
correction (calibration correction)
number added to an instrument reading to correct for an error,
offset, or bias. (Similarly, a reading may be multiplied or divided by
a correction factor to correct the value.)
correlation
interdependence, or relationship, between data or measured
quantities
coverage factor
number which is multiplied by the combined standard uncertainty
to give an expanded uncertainty for a particular level of
confidence
error
offset or deviation (either positive or negative) from the correct
value
estimated standard deviation
estimate of the standard deviation of the ‘population’ based on a
limited sample
expanded uncertainty
standard uncertainty (or combined standard uncertainty)
multiplied by a coverage factor k, to give a particular level of
confidence
Gaussian distribution
(See normal distribution)
interval (confidence interval)
margin within which the ‘true value’ being measured can be
said to lie, with a given level of
confidence
level of confidence
number (e.g. 95 %) expressing the degree of confidence in
the result
mean (arithmetic mean)
average of a set of numbers
measurand
particular quantity subject to measurement
normal distribution
distribution of values in a characteristic pattern of spread
(Gaussian curve) with values more likely to fall near the mean
than away from it
operator error
mistake
precision
a term meaning ‘fineness of discrimination’ but often misused to
mean ‘accuracy’ or ‘uncertainty’. Its use should be avoided if
possible.
random error
error whose effects are observed to vary randomly
range
difference between the highest and the lowest of a set of values
reading
value observed and recorded at the time of measurement
rectangular distribution
distribution of values with equal likelihood of falling anywhere
within a range
repeatability (of an instrument or of measurement results)
closeness of the agreement between repeated measurements of the same property
under the
same conditions
reproducibility (of an instrument or of measurement results)
closeness of the agreement between measurements of the same property carried out
under
changed conditions of measurement (e.g. by a different operator or a different method,
or at a
different time)
resolution
smallest difference that can be meaningfully distinguished (e.g. a change of one (1) in
the last
place of a digital display)
result (of a measurement)
value obtained from a measurement, either before or after
correction or averaging
sensitivity
change in response (of an instrument) divided by the
corresponding change in the stimulus
standard deviation
a measure of the spread of a set of results, describing how values
typically differ from the average of the set. Where it is not possible
to obtain an infinite set of results (in practice it never is) we
instead use the estimated standard deviation.
standard uncertainty
uncertainty of a measurement expressed as a margin equivalent
to plus and minus (±) one standard deviation.
systematic error
bias or offset (either positive or negative) from the correct value
true value
the value that would be obtained by a perfect measurement
Type A evaluation of uncertainty
evaluation of uncertainty by statistical methods
Type B evaluation of uncertainty
evaluation of uncertainty by non-statistical methods
uncertainty budget
summary of the uncertainty calculations
uncertainty of measurement
quantified doubt about the result of a measurement
uniform distribution
distribution of values with equal likelihood of falling anywhere
within a range