ASIA PETROCHEMICAL SCORECARD

February 12, 2025

Outlook
Very Bearish Bearish Neutral Bullish Very Bullish

Asia Summary Heatmaps

Ethylene and derivative basket Phenol is in a neutral price trend. Butadiene is in a bullish
trend. Butanol is following a neutral price trend.

◼ Ethylene and derivatives basket is in a slight bearish

price trend with a score of +24. Ethylene is in a bullish Aromatics and derivative basket
trend. HDPE and LDPE prices are following a bearish
trend while LLDPE is in a bullish price trend. PVC ◼ Aromatics and derivative basket are in a neutral price
prices are following a bullish trend and VAM prices are trend this week with a score of +9. Benzene is in a
following a strong bullish trend . MEG is in a bullish bullish trend. Naphtha is in a bearish price trend. PS
price trend. Feedstock methanol (MTO) is in a bearish and SM are both in a bullish price trend. PET is in a
trend. bearish trend. PX is in a bearish price trend and MX is
in a strong bearish price trend (weak gasoline
Propylene, Butadiene, and derivative basket blending).

◼ Propylene, butadiene, and derivatives basket is in a

slight bullish price trend with a total score of +30.
Feedstock propane prices are in a bearish trend and
propylene prices in a bearish price trend. PP is in a
bullish trend.

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Americas Petrochemical Scorecard February 12, 2025

Asia Ethylene Cracker margins

Regional Naphtha- Propane spreads Asia PVC margins

◼ Asian naphtha-propane spreads have gone done in the ◼ Asian PVC margin s have stayed low at $288/mt and
past month and is coming close to its seasonal stayed well below its seasonal average. Ongoing weak
average, currently at $37/mt. construction market is hurting demand.

Asia Naphtha Cracker margins Propylene downstream spreads and margins

Asian PDH margins

◼ Asian naphtha cracker margins have gone up and are
at positive $18/mt, yet still below its five-year average.
◼ Asian PDH margins are stable currently at $81/mt,
Asia LPG Cracker margins which is below their five-year seasonal average, new
capacity and stagflation concerns will continue to
pressure Asian PDH and PP margins at seasonal lows.
◼ Asian propane cracker margins and butane feedstock
margins have both been moving sideways over the past Asian PP-Propylene spreads
month, Propane currently at $191/mt and Butane
currently at $156/mt. Both feedstock margins remain
below their five-year average. ◼ Asian PP-propylene spread has come lower at $9/mt,
which is below the five-year seasonal average.
Asia CTO and MTO margins
Asian Ethylene-Propylene spreads

◼ Asian CTO margins have climbed up to $404/mt and

MTO margins have trended up to $214/mt. CTO ◼ Asian ethylene-propylene spread has been moving
margins are above its seasonal average while MTO sideways over the past several months and is currently
margins are way below their seasonal average. at $8/mt, but still higher than its five-year seasonal
average.
Downstream Ethylene spreads and margins
Asian ACN spreads
Asia HDPE-Ethylene spreads

◼ Asian ACN - Propylene spreads have moved sideways

◼ Asian HDPE-ethylene spread has come down to to $444/mt, remaining well below its seasonal average.
negative $9/mt which is lower than its five-year
seasonal average. Cumene/Phenol margins

Styrene margins
◼ Cumene/phenol margins are lower at $128/mt and are
well below its five-year seasonal average.
◼ Styrene margins have been hiking in the past month,
approaching their five-year average, currently at Aromatics downstream spreads and margins
$91/mt.
Benzene – Naphtha spreads
MEG spread
◼ Benzene - naphtha spreads are higher at $250/mt,
close to its five-year seasonal average.
◼ MEG spread has been gradually covering from its
downs and currently valued at $19/mt, about its five-
year seasonal average. Asian PX – Naphtha spreads

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Americas Petrochemical Scorecard February 12, 2025

◼ Asian PX - Naphtha spread is trending upwards at Asian weekly heat maps

$202/mt, still well below its seasonal five-year average.
The Asia petrochemical heat maps shown below are based
Asian PET margins on a quantitative scoring system with a maximum score of
+20 (green and bullish) and a minimum score of -20 (red
and bearish) for the products. The scoring system is based
◼ Asian PET margins have been trending lower and on a basket of up to five S&P Global Platts prices for each
continue to remain below five-year seasonal lows, product and may include multiple Asian prices. The regional
currently at $53/mt. products in some cases have futures markets which add
shape or time structure as a market signal.
Asian PTA - PX spread
The scoring system is based on market signals and
incorporates price trends, new recent high & low prices and
◼ Asian PTA- PX spreads have been volatile, currently relative values to assign a +1, 0, -1 value to each market
valued at $95/mt, coming close to its seasonal five-year signal used. Based on this scoring system, a maximum
average. score of +20 (green) for the product baskets means that all
market signals are trending bullish while a -20 (red) score
Asian MSTDP spreads indicates that all market signals are trending bearish.

All the signals used have been back tested and optimized
◼ Asian MSTDP spreads have come down, currently at by product and location to maximize the accuracy of the
$50/mt, still below its five-year average. individual market signals and total score. For example,
when the ethylene basket score is trending positive and
Gasoline blend value spreads above +5 there is a high probability that the ethylene price
will increase over the next week. Conversely, when the
trend is negative and the score is below -5, there is a high
probability that ethylene prices will decrease over the next
◼ Singapore toluene blending margins are descending
week.
and are well below its five-year seasonal average at
$27mt. MX blending margins have also dropped
tremeondously and now below their seasonal average
at $47/mt.

Asian PX-MX spreads

◼ Asian PX-MX spread has come higher at $98/mt, still

below its seasonal average.

Benzene- Toluene spreads

◼ Benzene-toluene spread has been moving sideways in

the past several months and is currently at $116/mt,
coming close to the five-year seasonal average.

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Americas Petrochemical Scorecard February 12, 2025

Asia Ethylene & Derivatives:

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Americas Petrochemical Scorecard February 12, 2025

Asian Propylene, Butadiene & Derivatives:

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Americas Petrochemical Scorecard February 12, 2025

Asian Aromatics & Derivatives:

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Americas Petrochemical Scorecard February 12, 2025

Contributors
Houston
Rob Stier

Singapore
Eshwar Yennigalla
Aaron Cheong
Xiaoshu Wang

London
Joshua Forber

Shanghai
Yilei Zhou

Asia Petrochemical Scorecard

For inquiries related to the oil market, please contact our team: [email protected].

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