A comparative analysis of exponential smoothing method and deep learning models for bitcoin price prediction
A comparative analysis of exponential smoothing method and deep learning models for bitcoin price prediction
Corresponding Author:
Nrusingha Tripathy
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan (Deemed to be University)
Bhubaneswar 751030, India
Email: [email protected]
1. INTRODUCTION
The decentralized network of computers that power cryptocurrencies collaborate to validate the log
transactions. Therefore, the money is no longer subject to the rheostat of authority like a bank or the
government. Cryptocurrency transactions are documented on a blockchain, an immutable, decentralized
ledger [1], [2]. To enable private and secure transactions, public and private keys are employed.
Lahmiri and Bekiros [3] testing the nonlinearity, produced data showing fractal dynamics, extended memory,
and self-similarity in all digital currency time series. There is a cap on the total quantity of coins or tokens
that may ever be issued for several cryptocurrencies. As an illustration, the maximum quantity of Bitcoin
coins is set at 21 million, a measure intended to produce scarcity and perhaps boost value over time.
Transactions with cryptocurrencies are often faster and may be less expensive than those using traditional
banking systems, and it can be sent and received anywhere on the globe.
Cryptocurrencies are a popular investment option for investors. In addition to being used for online
payments and remittances, digital assets are also utilized for other practices. According to Sun et al. [4], the
prediction's performance is impacted by the cryptocurrency's overall strength. This can reduce risks and
provide investors with excellent guidance when building a bitcoin portfolio. Nonetheless, the market for
cryptocurrencies is renowned for its unpredictability, difficulties with regulations, and constant technical
advancements [5]. Predictions may be used by traders and investors to create hedging strategies, which try to
reduce total risk by offsetting possible losses in one area of the portfolio with profits in another. Predictions
about cryptocurrencies might be useful to traders when deciding whether to enter or leave the market. This
might be essential for optimizing gains or reducing losses under quickly shifting market circumstances [6]‒[8].
In this work, long short-term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional-long short-term memory
(Bi-LSTM) are employed that automatically extract pertinent characteristics. This is helpful because it
enables the model to derive accurate depictions from the input data, especially when working with big and
complicated datasets [9]. Similarly, the exponential smoothing methods Facebook-Prophet (FB-Prophet) and
Silverkite are castoff; these models are straightforward and obvious methods that give historical observations
exponentially diminishing weights.
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
We are using the real time update provided by the Bitcoin exchange dataset. The dataset consists of
the following eight parameters: timestamp, open, high, low, close, volume in currency, volume in bitcoin,
and weighted price. The correlation heatmap of Bitcoin dataset is given in Figure 1. The timestamp data
columns include no transactions or activity are occupied with not a number (NaNs). If a timestamp is absent,
it may be due to an unanticipated technical fault in data reporting or collection [10]. From Kaggle contests,
we amassed bitcoin historical data. Here, the historical bitcoin data is at 1-minute interludes.
2.2. Facebook-Prophet
Prophet can handle holidays and seasonality on a weekly and annual basis. This helps to capture
recurrent trends and the possible influence of holidays or unique occasions on price movements in the context
of bitcoin prediction [13]. Potential changepoints, or locations where the time series shows a notable shift in
trend, are automatically detected by Prophet. In (7) to (9) shows the FB-Prophet formulations. This helps to
record abrupt fluctuations in the price of cryptocurrencies. Because Prophet's settings are simple to understand
and adjust, even individuals without a lot of experience with time series modelling may use it [14], [15].
2𝜋𝑖𝑡 2𝜋𝑖𝑡
𝑠(𝑡) = ∑𝑁
𝑖=1(𝑈𝑖 . sin ( ) + 𝑉𝑖 . cos ( )) (7)
𝑍 𝑍
Where 𝑠(𝑡) is the seasonality at time 𝑡, 𝑁 is the number of seasonal components 𝑈𝑖 and 𝑉𝑖 are the
coefficients for ith component, 𝑍 is the period of seasonality.
𝑔(𝑡) = 𝑘(𝑡) + ∑𝑁
𝑛−1(𝛿𝑛 . ℎ(𝑡 − 𝑇𝑛 )) (8)
Where 𝑔(𝑡) is the trend at time 𝑡, 𝑘(𝑡) is the baseline growth, 𝑁 is the numeral of change points, 𝛿𝑛 is the
magnitude of n-th change point. During model training, managing holidays entails defining holidays and
how they affect the time series data. Prophet's architecture allows for the inclusion of holidays and other
special occasions in the forecasting process. 𝑦(𝑡) is the observed value at time 𝑡, 𝑔(𝑡) is the leaning, 𝑠(𝑡) is
the seasonality, ℎ(𝑡) is the day off effect, and ∈𝑡 is the fault term. The formulation for handling holidays is
given in (9).
2.3. Silverkite
LinkedIn releases the time-series prediction library Greykite to simplify forecasting for data
scientists. The primary forecasting algorithm in this package is Silverkite, an automated prediction technique.
LinkedIn developed Greykite to help employees make informed decisions using time-series forecasting
models. A multitude of features are automatically generated by Silverkite, capturing various properties of the
time sequence. Silverkite's incorporation of various periodic patterns, trends, and unique occurrences enables
flexible forecasting. This adaptability helps to capture the dynamic and diversified character of the bitcoin
markets. Because Silverkite is built to withstand outliers and missing data, it can produce accurate forecasts
even in situations where the supplied data is incomplete. In (10) and (11) shows the Silverkite forecast
formulation. By optimizing for forecast accuracy, Silverkite automatically chooses the optimal forecasting
model from a group of candidate models. This can be helpful in the prediction of cryptocurrencies, where
selecting a suitable forecasting model might be difficult. Where 𝑦̂𝑡 is the calculated value at time 𝑡, 𝑏0 is the
intercept, 𝑏𝑖 , 𝑏𝑗 , 𝑏𝑘 are coefficients, ∈𝑡 is the error term.
𝑦̂𝑡 = 𝑏0 + ∑𝑁 𝑁 𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑏𝑖 . 𝑠𝑖,𝑡 + ∑𝑗=1 𝑏𝑗 . ℎ𝑗,𝑡 +∑𝑘=1 𝑏𝑘 . 𝑐𝑘,𝑡 +∈𝑡 (10)
A comparative analysis of exponential smoothing method and deep learning … (Nrusingha Tripathy)
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⃖ 𝑡, ℎ
𝑦𝑡 = 𝑅[ℎ ⃖ 𝑡] + 𝑠 (18)
3. PROPOSED MODEL
The dynamics of cryptocurrency marketplaces result in fluctuating values due to many variables.
As additional data becomes available, deep learning models may update their internal representations to
reflect the shifting market conditions [19]. Experts at automatically extracting pertinent characteristics from
unprocessed data are deep learning algorithms. In the domain of cryptocurrency forecasting, where intricate
correlations exist between attributes and price fluctuations, this is particularly advantageous [20], [21].
The proposed workflow diagram is given in Figure 2. Every data point in the collection has a time stamp or
period attached to it that indicates the exact moment the observation was made. The consequences of the
Dickey-Fuller test (DFT) are shown in Table 1.
Time series data may be studied to uncover underlying dynamics and forecast future values since it
frequently shows patterns, trends, or seasonality. Cryptocurrency markets show intricate and non-linear
interactions between several price-influencing elements [22]. Deep learning models can identify complicated
patterns and correlations in the data because they can represent complex functions. Human feature engineering
no longer be necessary as deep learning algorithms automatically extract relevant features from raw data.
In the Bitcoin market, where pertinent aspects could be dynamic and complicated, this is useful [23]‒[25].
4. RESULTS ANALYSIS
Cryptocurrency forecasting can assist people and organizations in evaluating and controlling the
risks brought on by price swings. Developing methods to mitigate risks is made possible by understanding
possible price fluctuations. Predictions are a common tool used by investors to maximize their bitcoin
holdings. They can modify their asset portfolios to enhance profits or reduce losses by forecasting market
fluctuations. In this work we are taking four different models from two separate fields and making the
comparison. When compared to other models, the Bi-LSTM model performs well. Figure 3 displays the
LSTM anticipated price of bitcoin, whereas Figure 4 displays the FB-Prophet expected price of bitcoin.
In a similar vein, Figures 5 and 6 illustrate the predicted prices for bitcoin by Silverkite and Bi-LSTM,
respectively.
Table 2 displays the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and root mean squared
error (RMSE) scores of each model. The Bi-LSTM model has an RMSE score of 3.639 and a minimal MAE
score of 7.073 when compared to the LSTM, FB-Prophet, and Silverkite models. By utilizing the capacity to
recognize intricate trends in sequential data and to record long-term dependencies, the Bi-LSTM model
provides various potential advantages for bitcoin price prediction. Prices of cryptocurrencies frequently show
long-term trends and interdependence. As a variant of LSTM with bidirectional processing, Bi-LSTM models
are able to more accurately represent long-term dependencies in the data by capturing data from both past
and future time steps. Models' MAE, MSE, and RMSE scores are plotted in a bar diagram conspiracy in
Figure 7. Prognoses for the future can be used by cryptocurrency-related businesses to put hedging plans into
place. In order to provide some amount of risk management, this entails establishing positions to counter
possible losses from unfavorable market fluctuations. Future projections can help businesses that adopt or use
cryptocurrencies make wise decisions about financial planning, budgeting, and general company strategies.
Forecasts for the future help raise awareness and educate people about the bitcoin industry. Entrepreneurs
keep up with the dynamics of the ever-changing cryptocurrency industry by being aware of possible future
developments.
5. CONCLUSION
Research and analysis of the market benefit from predictions. They offer perceptions of market
mood, possible trends, and variables affecting bitcoin pricing. Using this knowledge to inform strategic
decision-making is beneficial. Predictions can help organizations that deal with cryptocurrencies, including
exchanges and payment processors, make choices. In this work against the LSTM, FB-Prophet, and
Silverkite models, the Bi-LSTM model has a minimal MAE score of 7.073 and an RMSE score of 3.639.
This might involve risk management, price tactics, and market fluctuation preparation. Predictions can be
used by organizations that deal with cryptocurrencies, such as corporations and institutional investors,
to create hedging strategies that would lessen the risk of losses brought on by market volatility. Financial
markets are so dynamic and complicated that it is always difficult to forecast their movements, especially
those of bitcoin values. Future developments in data science and a thorough comprehension of the dynamic
cryptocurrency environment will probably be used to anticipate bitcoin prices. Scholars and experts in this
domain will persist in investigating inventive methods to augment the precision and dependability of
predictions for the bitcoin.
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BIOGRAPHIES OF AUTHORS
Dr. Sarbeswara Hota received his MCA from the National Institute of
Technology (NIT), Rourkela, India, in 2002, and his Ph.D. in computer science and
engineering from Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan (Deemed to be) University in 2019. He is currently
an Associate Professor in the Department of Computer Application at the same University.
His research interests include data mining, machine learning, and deep learning. He has
published 30 papers in various international journals and conferences. He can be contacted at
[email protected].
Gobinda Chandra Das received his MCA degree from IPSAR College Cuttack
in 2016, Odisha and an M.Tech. (computer science and engineering) form CIME College in
2019 Bhubaneswar, Odiaha. Currently working as Assistant Professor in Department of
Computer Science and Engineering KL (Deemed to be) University Vijaywada and pursuing
(Ph.D.) in KL (Deemed to) University Vijayawada (Andhrapradesh) India. He has published
2 patents, 2 journal publications, and also have 6yrs+ teaching experiences. He can be
contacted at email: [email protected].
Sasanka Sekhar Dalai received the M.Tech. degree in computer science from the
College of Engineering & Technology, BPUT Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India. He is currently
pursuing his Ph.D. in computer science and engineering at the Institute of Technical Education
and Research (I.T.E.R.) in Siksha O Anusandhan Deemed to be University, Bhubaneswar,
India, and has published one conference and two journal papers. Although, he has 9+ years of
teaching experience. His research interests include machine learning, deep learning, and image
processing. He can be contacted at email: [email protected].
A comparative analysis of exponential smoothing method and deep learning … (Nrusingha Tripathy)