TOPIC 4:

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
Learning outcomes:
1. Able to define and apply the basic concepts of probability.
2. Able to apply the probability concepts and rules.

by SHARIFAH NORHUDA SYED WAHID

 INTRODUCTION

Probability is the chance or how likely an event will happen. In simple words, probability measures the degree of
uncertainty in numerical terms. It is a number that measures the likelihood or chance that an event will occur
when an experiment is performed.

The probability theory is applied in everyday life to make decision when we do not know for sure what will be the
outcome. The probability is used in weather forecasting, risk management and investment, financial, medical and
many more.

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 BASIC TERMS IN PROBABILITY
Terms Definition
An experiment is a well-defined, repeatable process where outcomes are determined by chance.
Example 4.1:
1. Experiment Consider the random experiment of tossing
It is a process of making an observation or taking a measurement.

2. Outcome An outcome is the result from a trial of a probability experiment. a fair coin three times.

3. Sample A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. Each possible Outcome?
space, S result is represented by one and only one point in the sample space, denoted by S. Sample space?
An event is a subset of a sample space, or any single outcome of an experiment. Two types of
event:
(i) Elementary or Simple event
4. Event
An event which consists of a single outcome in the sample space.
(ii) Compound event List the event A if A be the event obtaining
An event which consist of more than one outcome. three heads.
A sample is selected with replacement if each unit of observation is selected, measured and

5. Sampling with replaced in the population before the next selection is made. Each unit can be selected for more

replacement than once. There is no change in the size of the population at any stage.

Suppose there are five marbles in a box. Probability of selecting first marble is 1/5 or 0.2. Then List the event B if B represents the event
probability of selecting second marble is also 1/5 obtaining at least two tails.
A sample is selected without replacement if each unit selected is not replaced in the population.
6. Sampling
It eliminates the possibility that any unit will appear more than once for subsequent selections.
without
Suppose there are five marbles in a box. Probability of selecting first marble is 1/5. Then
replacement
probability of selecting second marble is 1/4
 BASIC CONCEPTS IN PROBABILITY
Concepts Definition

number of outcomes where A occurs n(Aሻ

1 The probability of event A, P A = =
total number of possible outcome n(Sሻ

2 The value of probability is in between zero and one, 0 ≤ P A ≤ 1

P(A) = 0, if the event is impossible to occur

P(A) = 1, if the event is certain to occur

3 Event A’ will be the complement of event A, P A + P A′ = 1. Therefore, P A′ = 1 − P(Aሻ.

The intersection of events A and B, written as (A ∩ Bሻ, whose outcomes belong to both events A and B.
4 n(A ∩ Bሻ
P A∩B =
n(Sሻ

5 The union of events A and B, written as (A ∪ Bሻ, whose outcomes belong to either event A or event B or both.

Events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur simultaneously, that is they have no outcomes in
6
common, P A ∩ B = 0.

Events A and B are independent events if the occurrence of one of them is unaffected by the other event.
7
If A and B are independent events, the probability that A and B occur is P A ∩ B = P A × P(Bሻ

The probability of the union of events is the probability that event A or event B or both events occur.
8
P A∪B =P A +P B − P A∩B or P A∩B =P A +P B − P A∪B
 BASIC CONCEPTS IN PROBABILITY

Concepts Definition EXAMPLE 4.2

Conditional probability is the probability that event A will
X and Y are two events independent events with
occur given that event B has occurred, denoted as P(A | B). P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.4. Calculate P(A | B).
The symbol ‘|’ does not imply division. P(A | Bሻ denotes the
Solution:
probability that event A will occur given that event B has
P(A ∩ Bሻ P(A ∩ B) = P(A) x P(B)
occurred. P(A | B) =
P(Bሻ
= 0.5 x 0.4 = 0.2
A rule that can be used to determine a conditional probability 0.2
= = 0.5
from unconditional probabilities is: 0.4

9 P(A ∩ Bሻ
P(A | B) = , if P(B) ≠ 0 and P(A ∩ B) = P(A | EXAMPLE 4.3
P(Bሻ
B) . P(B)
A and B are two events with P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.45
and P(A ∩ B) = 0.15. Find P(B | A).
where
P(A | B) = the conditional probability that event A will occur Solution:
given that event B has occurred
P(A  B) = the unconditional probability that event A and
event B occur
P(B) = the unconditional probability that event B occurs
 BASIC CONCEPTS IN PROBABILITY

EXAMPLE 4.4 EXAMPLE 4.5

Given that A and B are two events with P A = 0.6, P B = Ali is interested to study the inflation and recession of a
0.35 and P A ∩ B = 0.2. Find P(A  B) and determine particular country. The probability of inflation is 0.3, the
whether A and B are independent events or not. probability of recession is 0.2 and the probability of
inflation and recession is 0.06.
Solution: Additive Rule a) Are the events of inflation and recession mutually
exclusive? Explain.
b) What is the probability of an inflation or recession
P A∪B =P A +P B − P A∩B happening in that country?

P A ∪ B = 0.6 + 0.35 − 0.2 Solution:

P A ∪ B = 0.75

P A∩B =P A ×P B
0.2 = 0.6 × 0.35
0.2 ≠ 0.21

Therefore, A and B are not independent events because

P(A  Bሻ ≠ P(Aሻ . P(Bሻ
 BASIC CONCEPTS IN PROBABILITY

EXAMPLE 4.5 EXAMPLE 4.6

3 2 1 Ali is interested to study the inflation and recession of a

Given that P A ∪ B = , P A′ = and P A ∩ B = .
4 3 4 particular country. The probability of inflation is 0.3, the
Find: probability of recession is 0.2 and the probability of
a) P(A) inflation and recession is 0.06.
a) Are the events of inflation and recession mutually
b) P(B) exclusive? Explain.
c) are A and B independent events? State your reason. b) What is the probability of an inflation or recession
happening in that country?

Solution:
 VENN DIAGRAM
Venn Diagram provides an easy and useful method for picturing the relationship that exists among events.

The complement of event A or A’ is The union of events A and B is

the event that A does not occur. written as A  B .

A B
A’
A

The intersection of events A and B, Events A and B are said to be

written as A  B. mutually exclusive if both cannot
occur simultaneously.
A B
A B

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 EXAMPLE 4.7

A hospital record shows that 12% of the patients are admitted for lung treatment, 16% is admitted for heart
treatment and 2% receives both lung and heart treatments. Illustrate the events in a Venn Diagram.

L 1 3 H
2

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 EXAMPLE 4.8

A researcher conducted a survey to find out where people did their holiday shopping. Out of a group of 110
randomly selected shoppers, 70 said that they shopped at the local mall, 30 said that they shopped in the
downtown area, and 10 said that they shopped both at the local mall and in the downtown area. Illustrate the
events in a Venn diagram.

LM 1 3 DA
2
What is the probability that the selected
shoppers shopped exclusively at the local
mall?

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 EXAMPLE 4.9

Given that A and B are two events with P A = 0.6, P B = 0.35 and P A ∩ B = 0.2. Find:

a) P(A  B)

A 3 B
1
b) P(A’ B) 2

c) P(A’  B’ሻ 4

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 EXAMPLE 4.10

3 2 1
Given that P A ∪ B = , P A′ = and P A ∩ B = . Illustrate the events in a Venn Diagram.
4 3 4
Hence, find P(A  B’ሻ.

A 1 3 B
2

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 EXAMPLE 4.11

Given that A and B are two events with P A = 0.6, P B = 0.35 and P A ∩ B = 0.2. Find:

a) P(A  B) =

b) P(A’ B)
A 3 B
1
2

c) P(A’  B’ሻ

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 QUICK CHECK 1

Question 1:
The events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.4, P(B’ሻ=0.3 and P(A∩Bሻ=0.2. Determine P(A U B) and P(A’ U B’ሻ.

Question 2:
A student is taking two courses, Statistics and Chemistry. The probability that the student will pass the Statistics
course is 0.50 and the probability of passing the Chemistry course is 0.70. The probability of passing both is 0.35.
What is the probability of passing at least one course?

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