For cited: Abed, A. A., Arslan, C. A. & Sulaiman, I. N. (2023).

Study of the history matching and performance

prediction Analysis Utilizing Integrated Material Balance Modeling in One Iraqi Oil Filed. Journal of Current
Research on Engineering, Science and Technology, 9 (1), 47-62.

Journal of Current Research on Engineering, Year: 2023

Science and Technology Volume: 9

(JoCREST)
Issue: 1
ISSN: 2651-2521

Research Article/Araştırma Makalesi

doi: 10.26579/jocrest.9.1.6

Study of the history matching and performance prediction

Analysis Utilizing Integrated Material Balance Modeling in One
Iraqi Oil Filed
Adnan Ajam ABED1, Chalang A. ARSLAN2 & Izzat Niazi SULAİMAN3
Keywords Abstract
Integrated Material Forecasting the performance of a reservoir is a crucial component of the planning
Balance Modeling, process for oil and gas field development, as well as for estimating reserves.
One Iraqi Oil Filed, Predicting how the reservoir will behave in the future is part of this process. The
history matching, effectiveness of a reservoir's production depends on an accurate representation of
performance its flow characteristics, fluid properties, rock properties, and rock-fluid properties.
prediction.
Petroleum-Engineers need to be well-versed in production operation
optimization, and reservoir characteristics, Furthermore, it is crucial to acquire
knowledge on the development of an analytical model that can effectively
represent the underlying physical mechanisms taking place within a reservoir.
The Material-Balance equation, which has been developed by a number of
scientists including Muskat, Havlena and Odeh, Tarner, Craft and Hawkins,
Tracy, and Schilthuis, is commonly utilized to estimate reservoir performance.
After performing history matching for both models, this study will compare and
evaluate reserve estimation utilizing dynamic simulation the (MBAL) program
and the Material-Balance predictive technique. The outcomes outlined in our
manuscript illustrate the effectiveness of (MBAL) in relation to history-matching
and performance forecasting. The objective of this study to develop a
foundational model for reservoir analysis. Diverse algorithms and models
pertaining to each method presented and validated via case empirical studies. In
order to identify differences between data and physical reality with aid of
correlations, field data for production, PVT analysis, and well data were
Article History collected. Additionally, this study compares historical events to the original oil's
Received location and aquifer size. Conclusions drawn from a large number of plots
11 Mar, 2023 between different parameters show how closely the simulation and future
Accepted predictions match the historical data and performance as well as the reservoir
23 Jun, 2023 system's performance in the future.

1 Corresponding Author. ORCID: 0000-0002-6558-9552. University of Kirkuk, College of

Engineering, [email protected]
2 ORCID: 0000-0003-4246-4121. University of Kirkuk, College of Engineering,

[email protected]
3 ORCID: 0000-0003-1664-7688. University of Kirkuk, College of Engineering,

[email protected]
1. Introduction
Reservoir engineers have a variety of responsibilities, including estimating
reserves, and planning field development, which necessitates a thorough
understanding of optimizing production operations and reservoir characteristics,
but perhaps their most important task is to create Mathematical-Model that
accurately captures physical processes taking place in reservoir. so that any
action's outcomes predicted with the least possible degree of engineering error.
According to Muskat (1945), one of jobs of reservoir engineers is to forecast the
future performance of the reservoir based on its historical performance. As a
result, the reservoir is always correct, regardless of how the engineer's concept is
perceived to be right or incorrect, foolish or brilliant, honest or dishonest.
Reservoir engineering models must be revised to reflect production behavior since
reservoirs rarely operate as planned. In order to evaluate the viability of oil and
gas reservoirs and optimize their performance, a precise forecast of future
production rates under varied operating conditions is essential. When there is a
shortage of complete reservoir data, it is impossible to frequently utilize the
traditional way of utilizing deliverability and material balance equations to
anticipate production performance of reservoirs. [1]
In reservoir engineering, reservoir performance refers to how much a specific
reservoir will be able to produce over its lifetime (in terms of the total amount of
hydrocarbon in place) AND how quickly the output will decrease over time. The
purpose of each study and analysis is to respond to the two queries above the aim
is to maximize recovery factor R.F. and keep the rate of production decline as little
as possible over reservoir's lifetime (for economic viability, i.e., producing while
making enough profit to continue production) in order to get the reservoir to
produce as much hydrocarbon as it can while it is still in place. A variety of
parameters are investigated for evaluating reservoir performance, and a clear
understanding is required for an appropriate performance assessment [2]:
 Reservoir Pressure and Drive Mechanism (Dynamic and Static)
 pore volume geometry
 water saturation and lateral extent
The process of predicting reservoir performance involves iterations. The future
optimization of reservoir management forecasting a field necessitates the
fulfillment of a convergence criterion subsequent to the attainment of a
satisfactory history match, within a limited timeframe.
Utilizing concept of material balance rather than numerical approach that splits
reservoir into grid blocks, there are basically four ways to forecast reservoir
performance. These are as follows:
• Muskat ,Method
• Tracy ,Technique
• Tarner ,Technique
• Schilthuis, Technique

48 Abed, A. A., Arslan, C. A. & Sulaiman, I. N. (2023). Study of the history matching and
performance prediction Analysis Utilizing Integrated Material Balance Modeling in
One Iraqi Oil Filed
All Methods utilized to forecast a reservoir's future performance based on a
combination of the right MBE and instantaneous GOR utilizing right saturation
equation. Calculations performed once more at number of hypothetical pressure
drops. Typically, the stock-tank barrel of oil at the bubble-point pressure is utilized
in these computations.
As described in Craft & Hawkins (1991), Dake (1978), Tarek (2010), Cole (1969),
Cosse (1993), Economides et al. (1994), & Hawkins (1955), the cumulative oil
produced over the bubble point pressure is determined directly from the material
balance equations.[3]
The Goal of this study or project is to get the reservoir to produce as much as
possible of the hydrocarbon in place (maximize recovery factor R.F) and keep the
rate of production decline as low as possible over the life of the reservoir (for
economic viability i.e. producing while making enough profit to continue
production).
While the simulation technique prediction is intricate and requires a geologic
modelling, fluid, rock, , historical production data, and all reservoir events, but
petroleum experts developed the software called Integrated Production Modeling
(IPM) based on material balance to forecast hydrocarbon reservoir performance.
2. Previous Studies
We present a few of the research that has been conducted to examine reservoir
performance prediction:
Okotie Sylvester,2015 Introduce a new mathematical module that accurately
captures physical processes taking place in the reservoir so that the results of each
operation can be anticipated with a tolerable margin of error. The various physical
processes that are taking place within the reservoir should be adequately captured
mathematically so that the outcomes of any operation may be predicted with a
tolerable margin of error. [11].
Iroro Idogun,2015 compares the estimation of reserves utilizing the predicted
material balance and the dynamic simulation following history matching both
models. The results indicate that transmissibility modeling and aquifer modeling
are important components in establishing moderately accurate MBAL models
hydraulically, connected reservoirs are utilized for multi-tank modeling to get a
successful historical match and model calibration, it's crucial to have a solid
understanding of the reservoir fault structure and connectivity, as well as
appropriate and trustworthy BHP, injection, and production data. The study's
findings demonstrate an important comparison between the Reserves estimates
derived from dynamic simulation and MBAL. When time and resources are scarce,
Predictive Material Balance can be a rapid substitute for reservoir simulation in
the prediction of reservoir performance. Additionally, predictive material balance
analysis should be utilized in reservoirs where there is sufficient data from the
current wells to create accurate inflow & outflow models. [12]
J. O. Ayorinde,2019 illustrated in the Eni field Offshore Niger Delta, two
producing reservoirs (E40 and H10) were investigated with the goal of
accelerating their recovery rate while reducing the production of water. Stock tank

Journal of Current Research on Engineering, Science and Technology, 2023, 9 (1), 47-62. 49
oil reserves were computed for enhanced validation utilizing the material balance
program MBAL, and the results were compared to reserve estimates produced by
both deterministic and stochastic approaches. The locations of fluid contacts were
also determined utilizing the MBAL model, as well as the predominate drive
mechanisms. These provide a roadmap for deciding if and how to profitably
produce any untapped oil that may still be present. Average results from core and
well-log studies served as the input parameters. The history matching of historical
data allowed for estimates of the likely future production life and volume under
various scenarios. The end results show that even after 16 and 45 years,
respectively, of uninterrupted production from the examined reservoirs (H10,
E40), there is still a sizable amount of unproduced oil that may be profitably
produced by infill wells. Given the rising demand for oil, gas, and other energy
sources to halt the ostensibly irreversible global warming, the average production
has increased by at least 33% of the remaining oil, which is a significant
amount.[14]
Amarachi Uche Onuka, 2019 utilizes Hurst-Van Everdingen modified and
Schilthuis steady state water influx models to forecast the future performance of
an oil reservoir with no initial gas cap and produced by a powerful underlying
aquifer. The purpose of this analysis is to highlight how the Hurst-Van Everdingen
modified model and the Schilthuis steady-state water influx model differ in their
capacity to give reservoir engineers a thorough understanding of the effects of
aquifer influx into a reservoir on cumulative oil production and estimation of oil-
in-place. By doing a simulation analysis utilizing the Hurst-Van Everdingen
modified and Schilthuis steady state models from the MBAL program, the following
reservoir parameters were anticipated to change over a 20-year period. The oil
recovery factor for the production period under investigation was given as
26.76%. Hurst-Van Everdingen adjusted water influx models and Schilthuis
steady-state estimates of recoverable reserves differed by 0.406738 MMSTB. [15]
Prathmesh Sapale, 2019 compares reserve estimate methods by utilizing
predictive material balance,after history matching for both models and dynamic
simulation in MBAL software. The findings of this research demonstrate the
utilizefulness of MBAL for performance prediction and history matching. The goal
is to create the fundamental reservoir model. For each technique, various models
and algorithms are explained and tested utilizing case studies. Based on identifying
discrepancies between physical reality and data with the aid of correlations, field
data linked to PVT analysis, production, and well data were collected for quality
check. The size of the aquifer and the history are matched to the initial oil that was
present. In the end, the conclusion drawn from numerous plots among different
parameters reflects the outcomes of historical data matches, simulation results,
Additionally, the observation of these data and comparable simulation results on
future forecast plots will serve as a representation of reservoir system
performance in the future. [16]
C. G. J. Nmegbu,2021 Water aquifers with relative size content (most large) limit
the majority, if not all, reservoirs, therefore comparative research of the oil
recovery factor from two major aquifer geometry (Bottom and Edge water aquifer)
was produced. Identification of acceptable influx models for aquifer

50 Abed, A. A., Arslan, C. A. & Sulaiman, I. N. (2023). Study of the history matching and
performance prediction Analysis Utilizing Integrated Material Balance Modeling in
One Iraqi Oil Filed
characterization is the method adopted in this study. These aquifers are crucial for
the cumulative oil produced (MMSTB), the oil recovery factor (percent%), and
overall reservoir performance. The Niger Delta reservoir aquifer's characteristics
taken into account include permeability, porosity, and other factors. Utilizing the
regression technique, Material Balance Software (MBAL) estimates the aquifer
properties. This method entails computing the reservoir's calculated pressure
from production and PVT data and comparing it to the average reservoir pressure
from history. [17]
3. History Matching Strategy for MBAL
The sequential menu selections of MBAL lead the engineer logically through the
history-matching procedure. This procedure analyzes the drive mechanisms in
utilize and assesses the credibility of the measured data entered visually utilizing
industry-standard approaches (such as Cole, Campbell, and P/Z plots). A
simulation of the history is run when the analytical model and history have been
matched utilizing the analytical methods offered in MBAL. This simulation yields
the following two practical results: By first simulating the historical era, the user
can compare the production patterns predicted by the model with the data entered
(a close match indicating a good history match). Second, by running the history as
a prediction, MBAL will ascertain all of the historical production profiles,
saturations, and reservoir pressures over the duration of the historical period. This
allows for the creation of special relative permeability curves that are calibrated to
the history-matched model. The aforementioned method can be used to construct
the Relative Permeability curves for each well's draining region when historical
data are entered on a well-by-well basis. Tank by tank historical data can also be
entered. Becautilize of its original nature, the analytical model deviates from
traditional literature-based models and can approach the response of reality.
4. Matching Parameters Determination
In order to match the MBAL results with the observed data, the most uncertain
variables were first adjusted to match the input data from the simulator with the
observed data. The creation of a single-tank model reduced overall uncertainty; in
fact, eliminating the transmissibility components also reduced overall uncertainty.
This provides a chance to roughly estimate the aquifer system characteristics and
use them to build the multi-tank model. Using the MBAL non-linear regression
option, many parameters can be optimized in a single realization. However,
vigilance is required becautilize optimizing any ambiguous parameter could
provide unreal outcomes. Finding the appropriate choice of variables is essential
since even uncertain parameters have some level of uncertainty.

Journal of Current Research on Engineering, Science and Technology, 2023, 9 (1), 47-62. 51
 Figure 1. Workflow in determining matching parameters

The 'MBAL best set of variables' determination process is broken down into three
steps, as shown in Fig. 1, and each stage's results are shown:
- Variability - establish all uncertain parameters.
- Hierarchy of uncertainty - The probability for each variable should be determined
by consulting an expert.
-MBAL best set of variables - examine inter-parameter dependency utilizing
related equation.
Figure 2. Potential unknown parameters (Dake, 2001).

52 Abed, A. A., Arslan, C. A. & Sulaiman, I. N. (2023). Study of the history matching and
performance prediction Analysis Utilizing Integrated Material Balance Modeling in
One Iraqi Oil Filed
5. History matching parameters
5.1. Analytical Method
MBAL's analytical history matching approach is a plot-based technique that utilizes
a non-linear regression engine to help estimate reservoir and aquifer parameters
that are unknown[13]. Based on the reservoir pressure and the production of
secondary fluids from the entered history, the program determines the primary
fluid production. Water is the secondary fluid here. The So+ Sg+ Sw = 1 equation is
regressed by the algorithm. The data in the standard deviation can be utilized to
check for errors in the regression's material balance. (F-We)/(G*E)-1 =0. A number
of less than 0.1 indicates a good match. Through the utilize of analytical history
matching, three different outer-inner radios with red values of 4, 5, and 6 were
employed to fit an adequate-size aquifer. The value of red is thought to be less than
7 based on seismic and geological evidence.
5.2. Graphical Method
Once a quality match is observed in the analytical plot, the aquifer size can be
confirmed using Havlena and Odeh's water drive plot (F/Et vs We/Et plot) in the
graphical method of MBAL [13]. The water content of the material balance is either
too low or too high if the F/Et vs. We/Et plot deviates from a straight line in either
the upward or downward direction. The model's cumulative findings are taken to
be appropriate after the plot assumes a unit slope form.
5.3. History Simulation
The history matching carried out utilizing the graphical and analytical approaches
receives a final quality check utilizing the history simulation of MBAL. Analytical
methods work the other way around from history simulation methods. Based on
the reservoir and aquifer model, it computes reservoir pressures utilizing
historical production data. [13].
6. Methodology
To achieve the best prediction for reservoir performance in our research, a
number of data has been utilized from an Iraqi oil field in southern Iraq. The data
has been got from production reports from the owner company. It included the
production history and pressure history of the well for three years from 1988 to
2011. Other data such as fluid properties and reservoir rock properties have been
got from the good reports. The data is arranged from reports as date, production
rate, and pressure. The tool that is utilized to achieve our goal is the MBAL
program.
MBAL makes it possible to perform non-dimensional reservoir analysis throughout
the field's life, whether this is during the early stages when there are few data
points available or even in mature fields when there are more data points and
higher levels of certainty. This versatile reservoir toolkit can therefore be used at
any point during the reservoir's lifespan. It is widely used as a quality control for
history matching and/or as a stand-in model for rapid computations when coupled
with numerical simulators. The data acquired by the tool was utilized to determine
the original oil in place (OOIP) and facilitate accurate history matching of pressure

Journal of Current Research on Engineering, Science and Technology, 2023, 9 (1), 47-62. 53
and production data. This, in turn, enables us to forecast the performance of the
well and reservoir. Additionally, demonstrate the propulsion mechanisms of the
reservoir.[39]
The flow chart below shows the methodology of the research.

Start Input Data History matching

(Q, P. ..etc)

no
Best
matching

yes

Identify the drive mech. Estimate OOIP

Results Evaluation End

Figure 3. Methodology of the research.

Schilthuis presented a theoretical concept regarding material balance in 1941,
which was founded on the principle of mass conservation. This technique relies on
the assumption that the reservoir can be modeled as a homogeneous tank[12]. The
Material-Balance approach is employed for the purpose of history matching and
past performance analysis, with the aim of estimating the reservoir volume and
predicting future performance. The MBAL software is designed to facilitate
reservoir analysis for the entirety of a field's lifespan, utilizing minimal data. This
tool is particularly utilizeful for reservoir engineers. The fundamental equation
utilized in MBAL software, namely.
𝑓 − 𝑤𝑒 = 𝑁(𝐸𝑜 + 𝑚𝐸𝑔 + 𝐸𝑓𝑤 ) ……………….4.1

……………………………….4.1
6.1. Workflow Procedure
The MBAL software is a cutting-edge analytical reservoir engineering tool that
enables the execution of simulations based on historical data, which must be

54 Abed, A. A., Arslan, C. A. & Sulaiman, I. N. (2023). Study of the history matching and
performance prediction Analysis Utilizing Integrated Material Balance Modeling in
One Iraqi Oil Filed
reconciled with the analytical model. The MBAL software offers significant
capabilities in terms of matching and aquifer modeling, which can enhance
research pertaining to pressure support response and forecasting. The research
study followed specific procedures to predict the performance of chosen
reservoirs. [40].
• Data on pressure depletion and cumulative PVT oil output were gathered
while taking a tank model into account.
• Using the complementary features offered by MBAL, the empirical fluid
property correlations were changed to fit the PVT laboratory results. Before
being selected for use in the model, correlations were modified using non-
linear regression techniques to best fit the observed data.
• Glaso-correlation was used for saturation pressure, the Gas-Oil Ratio, and
the Formation Volume Factor, whereas Beggs-correlation was selected for
viscosity.
• For the sake of further reservoir model development, tank data such as
beginning pressure, porosity, reservoir temperature, initial hydrocarbon in
place, connate water saturation, and production start date information are
incorporated. Based on geological information, the initial hydrocarbon in
place was computed. Past production information and pressure declination
are needed for history matching. L.P. Dake is consulted for the reference
data.
• Following the matching process, three graphical representations were
generated for the purpose of ascertaining the parameters of the reservoir
and aquifer. The utilization of an energy plot facilitated the observation of
the driving mechanism, while the Campbell plot served as a diagnostic tool
for identifying the reservoir type by analyzing the pressure and production
behavior. The utilization of an analytical approach reveals the disparity
between the model and empirical data, thereby signifying the presence of
unquantified energy. According to the Campbell plot, it is probable that an
aquifer is present.
• The utilization of a non-linear regression technique was implemented to
assess the unidentified aquifer capacity and reservoir characteristics,
followed by the calibration of pressure and production data. Several aquifer
models have been chosen and the best-fit aquifer model has been selected.
• The model's precision was verified through the utilization of historical data,
such as pressure measurements and cumulative oil and gas production data.
7. Result
The energy plot, as depicted in Figure 3, provides a visual illustration of the
distinct drive mechanisms and their respective contributions to the energy of the
reservoir.

Journal of Current Research on Engineering, Science and Technology, 2023, 9 (1), 47-62. 55
 Fig. (4.5): Drive mechanism contribution.

1. Analytical plotS

The present study presents an analytical model of historical matching, both

prior to and subsequent to regression analysis. In order to enhance the
caliber of the historical matching process, a regression analysis was
conducted.

FigureS 4.6. Analytical plot before regression

56 Abed, A. A., Arslan, C. A. & Sulaiman, I. N. (2023). Study of the history matching and
performance prediction Analysis Utilizing Integrated Material Balance Modeling in
One Iraqi Oil Filed
 Figure 4.7. Analytical plot after regression
8. Production Prediction and Pressure Prediction
The graphical representation of historical production data is utilized to construct a
model that accurately reflects the behavior of the reservoir, enabling the
performance of predictive analysis on the reservoir.

Figure 4.8. Production prediction of tank pressure from starting to ending of production

Figure 4.9. Production prediction of oil production from starting to ending of production

Journal of Current Research on Engineering, Science and Technology, 2023, 9 (1), 47-62. 57
 Figure 4.10 . Production prediction of reservoir pressure from starting to year 2027

Figure 4.11. Production prediction of oil production from start to the year 2027

58 Abed, A. A., Arslan, C. A. & Sulaiman, I. N. (2023). Study of the history matching and
performance prediction Analysis Utilizing Integrated Material Balance Modeling in
One Iraqi Oil Filed
9. Conclusion
Results found from dissimilar graphs The aforementioned deductions derived
from the present study. The material balance equation holds significant value in
the field of reservoir engineering as a crucial analytical tool, particularly when
faced with time constraints. The analytical tool presented is a highly sophisticated
method for assessing reserve volume based on historical production data. This
study has demonstrated that effective data acquisition is necessary for conducting
reserve volume assessment utilizing MBAL. The reservoir analysis tool is a
software application designed for the purpose of analyzing reservoirs. The MBAL
software is utilized for the purposes of initializing, calibrating, and benchmarking
the process of history matching. The primary energy source in reservoirs is
derived from the influx of water and the rock and fluid expansion drive
mechanism. Approximately 50% of the energy needed for oil recovery from
reservoirs is derived from the water system energy. The reservoir can be most
accurately characterized by utilizing the Hurst van Everdingen water influx model.
During the historical period, a total of 5.7 million stock tank barrels (MMSTB) of oil
were produced from a reserve of 33.4 MMSTB. The recovery factors for these
reserves were 17% and 11.58%, respectively. The cumulative water production
during the historical period amounted to 1.88 million stock tank barrels (MMSTB),
while the forecast period saw a cumulative water production of 3.86 MMSTB. The
application of material balance was employed in reservoirs where sufficient and
appropriate data were accessible for the purpose of history matching. The primary
aim this study is to utilize reservoir simulation techniques to generate future
predictions that can be leveraged to optimize reservoir performance. This
optimization is intended to maximize commercial benefits by developing the
reservoir in a manner that is most advantageous to the business.

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62 Abed, A. A., Arslan, C. A. & Sulaiman, I. N. (2023). Study of the history matching and
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One Iraqi Oil Filed