Chapter 2

Please understand that there will be slight difference in decimal points. For
instance, 0.43 can be shown as 0.44 or 1.54 will be presented as 1.55.

Exercise 2.1 and 2.2

• The following AON chart was prepared at the beginning of an important

software upgrade project. The duration, in days, follows the letter of
each activity. What is the critical path? Which activities should be
monitored most closely?

• Compute the earliest start and finish times, the latest start and finish
times, and the slack times for each activity. Also, calculate the slack for
each path.

 At the end of the first week, it was noted that activity A was completed
in 2.5 days, but activity B required 4.5 days.

Answer

Based on this AON, 4 paths are available: A-C-I, A-D-G-J, B-E-G-J, and B-F-H-J

Path Initial AON Modified AON

A-C-I 4+1+1= 6 days 2.5 +1+1 = 4.5 days

A-D-G-J 4+5+3+2 = 14 days 2.5+5+3+2 = 12.5 days
B-E-G-J 3+4+3+2= 12 days 4.5+4+3+2= 13.5 days
B-F-H-J 3+1+5+2= 11 days 4.5+1+5+2= 12.5 days
Chapter 2

In the initial AON, A-D-G-J is the critical path. Thus, these activities, A, D G,
and J should be monitored.

In the modified AON, B-E-G-J is the critical path. Thus, these activities, B, E,
G, and J, should be monitored.

The reason is that one of characteristics of the critical path is the longest
path.

Compared to other paths, A-D-G-J, in initial AON, and B-E-G-J in modified

AON, has the longest duration to complete this project.

 ES and EF will be put on the top-left and top-right.

 LS and LF will be put on the bottom-left and bottom-right.
 Slack will be on the middle of top.
 ES-EF-LF-LS-Slack need to be computed in order.
 Slack can be computed with either EF-ES or LF-LS.

4 8 5 5 8 6
C,1 I,1
12 13 13 14

0 0 4
A,4
0 4
4 0 9
D,5
4 9
9 0 12
G,3
9 12
3 2 7 12 0 14
E,4 J,2
0 2 3 5 9 12 14
B,3
2 5 3 3 4 4 3 9
F,1 H,5
6 7 7 12

In detailed information,
Activit ES EF LF LS Slack
y
A Activity A It takes 4 Activity A Activity A 0=
can start at days to can finish at need to either 0-0 or
0 finish 4 start at 0 4-4
activity-A.
Thus, 0+4 =
4
B Activity B It takes 3 Activity B Activity B 2 = either 2-
Chapter 2

can start at days to can finish at can start at 1 or 5-3

0 finish 5 2
activity B.
Thus, 0+3 =
3
C After It takes 1 Activity C Activity C 8 = either
finishing day to finish can finish at needs to 12-4 or 13-5
activity-A, activity-C. 13 start 12
activity-C Thus, 3+1 =
can start at 4
4
D After It takes 5 At the worst Activity D 0 = either 4-
finishing days to case, D should start 4 or 9-9
activity-A, finish needs to at 4
activity-D activity-D. finish at 9
can start at Thus, 4+5 =
4 9
E After It takes 4 At the worst Activity E 2 = either 5-
finishing days to case, E can start at 3 or 9-7
activity-B, finish needs to 5
activity-E activity-E. finish at 9
can start at Thus, 4+3 =
3 7
F After It takes 1 For activity Activity F 3 = either 6-
finishing day to finish H not to be can start at 3 or 7-4
activity-B, activity-F. delayed, F 6
activity-E Thus, needs to
can start at 3+1=4 finish at 7
3
G After It takes 3 Not to delay Activity G 0 = either 9-
finishing days to this project, should start 9 or 12-12
activities-D finish H needs to at 9
and E, activity-F. finish at 12
activity-G Thus,
can start at 9+3=12
9
H After It takes 5 Not to delay Activity H 3= either 7-
finishing days to this project, can start at 4 or 12-9
activity-F, finish H needs to 7
activity-H activity-F. finish at 12
can start at Thus,
4 4+5=9
I After It takes 1 In the worst Activity I 8 = either
finishing day to finish case, I can start at 13-5 or 14-6
activity-C, activity-I. needs to 13
activity-I Thus, finish at 14.
can start at 5+1=6
5
J After It takes 2 In the worst It takes 2 0 = either
Chapter 2

finishing days to case, J days to 12-12 or 14-

activities-G finish needs to finish 14
and H, activity-F. finish at 14. activity-F.
activity-J Thus, Thus,
can start at 12+2=14 14+2=12
12

Activities on the critical path will not have a slack. Thus, it is confirmed that
A-D-G-J is the critical path.

Exercise 2.4: AON Network

Construct a network for the project below and find its expected completion
time.

Activity Te (Weeks) Preceding Activities

A 3 NONE
B 5 A
C 3 A
D 1 C
E 3 B
F 4 B, d
G 2 C
H 3 G, f
I 1 E, h

Answer

AON can be established with the information in the table above.

Chapter 2

A B E

C D H

Based on this AON, the following 4 paths are available:

 A-B-E-I (3+5+3+1= 12 weeks),

 A-B-F-H-I (3+5+4+3+1 = 16 weeks),
 A-C-D-F-H-I (3+3+1+4+3+1 = 15 weeks),
 and A-C-G-H-I (3+3+2+3+1=12 weeks).

As path A-B-F-H-I is the longest path, this path will be the critical path.
Chapter 2

Exercise 2.5

Estimated activity times and precedences are given below:

Expected Time
Optimis Most Pessimis 2
Variance
Activi tic Likely tic Required t 0+ 4∗t m +t p t p−t 0
2
ty Precedence t e =( ) σ
2
=( )
t0 tm tp 6 99%
6

1.78 =
6+ 4∗7+14 2
A 6 7 14 - 8= 14−6
6 ( )
6
10=
B 8 10 12 - 8+4∗10+ 12 0.44 = ¿
6
2+ 4∗3+ 4
C 2 3 4 - 3= 0.11= ¿
6
6+ 4∗7+8
D 6 7 8 A 7= 0.11= ¿
6
5+4∗5.5+ 9
E 5 5.5 9 B, C 6= 0.44= ¿
6
5+4∗7+ 9
F 5 7 9 B, C 7= 0.44= ¿
6
4+ 4∗6+ 8
G 4 6 8 D,E 6= 0.44= ¿
6
Chapter 2

3.03 =
H 2.7 3 3.5 F 2.7+4∗3+3.5 0.02= ¿
6

With the information of the table above, the following AON is established.

Answer

Based on this AON, 5 paths in the following table are available.

In the expected time, the processing time for each activity can be found out
from the table above.

PAT Expected Time Variance Standard Deviation

H (= Summation of (=
variances of all
activities)
√ summation of variances of all activities

AD 21= 8+7+6 2.33 = 1.53 = √ 2.33

G 1.78+0.11+0.44
BE 22 = 10+6+6 1.33 = 1.15= √ 1.33
G 0.44+0.44+0.44
BF 20.03 = 0.91 = 0.95= √ 0 . 91
H 10+7+3.3 0.44+0.44+0.02
CE 15 = 3+6+6 1.00 = 0.11 + 1.00= √ 1.00
G 0.44+ 0.44
CF 13.3 = 0.57 = 0.76 = √ 0.57
H 3+7+3.3 0.11+0.44+0.02
Chapter 2

The longest path in the table above is B-E-G, which will be the critical path.
Thus, the expected completion time is 22 and the standard deviation of this
path is 1.15.

Standard deviation of the path is equal to the square root of the variance of
the path.

The probability for the desired completion time can be computed with the
following formula,
Desired Completion time−Expecte Completiontime
z=
√Variance of the critical path

If the desired completion time is 21 days,

21−22
Thus, Z= =−0.86
1.15

The probability corresponding to the z-value can be found with NORM.DIST

function in EXCEL.

In the function NORM.DIST, you will type the value =Norm.Dist(your desired
completion time, the expected completion time, standard deviation, TRUE).

In Excel, you can type with “=NORM.DIST(21, 22, 1.15, TRUE)”. The EXCEL
will show 0.192269 which means that there is 19.22% to finish for this
project to be completed within 21.

If the desired completion time is 22 days, Z-value can be computed with the
following
2 2−22
Z= =0
1.15
In Excel, you can type with “=NORM.DIST(22, 22, 1.15, TRUE)”. The EXCEL
will show 0.5 which means that there is 50% to finish for this project to be
completed within 22.
Chapter 2

If the desired completion time is 25 days, Z-value can be computed with the
following
25−22
Z= =2.9 5
1.15
In Excel, you can type with “=NORM.DIST(25, 22, 1.15, TRUE)”. The EXCEL
will show 0.9954 which means that there is 99.54% to finish for this project
to be completed within 25.

If we consider all of these available paths rather than with only the critical
path, how we can estimate the probability of completing the project?

To do so, we need to individually estimate the z-value for each path.

If the desired completion time is 21 days,

All Possible Paths

% corresponding to Z-value
Expected
Std using the function Norm.Dist
Time
Z-value= in Excel

21−21 0.50 =
0.00 =
ADG 21 1.53 1. 53 Norm.Dist(21,21,1.53, TRUE)

21−2 2 0.19= Norm.Dist(21,22,1.15,

-0.87 =
BEG 22 1.15 1. 15 TRUE)

21−2 0.03
1.02=
BFH 20.03 0.95 0.95 0.84

21−15
6.00=
CEG 15 1.00 1. 00 1.00

10.52=
21−13.03
CFH 13.03 0.76 0.76 1.00

Thus, the probability of completing this project with all paths is computed
with
Chapter 2

the multiplication of the probability of all paths.

0.50 * 0.19 * 0.84 * 1.00 * 1.00 = 8.16%, which means 8.16 % to complete
this project within 21 days.

If the desired completion time is 22 days,

All Possible Paths

% corresponding to Z-value
Expected
Std using the function Norm.Dist
Time
Z-value= in Excel

22−21 0.74 =
0.65 =
ADG 21 1.53 1.53 Norm.Dist(22,21,1.53, TRUE)

22−22 0.50= Norm.Dist(22,22,1.15,

0=
BEG 22 1.15 1.15 TRUE)

22−20.03
2.07=
BFH 20.03 0.95 0.95 0.98

22−15
7.00=
CEG 15 1.00 1.00 1.00

11.84=
22−13.03
CFH 13.03 0.76 0.76 1.00

0.74 * 0.50 * 0.98 * 1.00 * 1.00 = 36.46%, which means 35.46% to complete
this project within 22 days.

If the desired completion time is 25 days,

All Possible Paths

% corresponding to Z-value
Expected
Std using the function Norm.Dist
Time
Z-value= in Excel
Chapter 2

25−21 0.9955 =
2.62 =
ADG 21 1.53 1.53 Norm.Dist(25,21,1.53, TRUE)

25−22 0.9954 =
2.60 =
BEG 22 1.15 1.15 Norm.Dist(25,22,1.15, TRUE)

25−20.03
5.22=
BFH 20.03 0.95 0.95 1.00

25−15
10.00=
CEG 15 1.00 1.00 1.00

15.80=
25−13.03
CFH 13.03 0.76 0.76 1.00

0.9955 * 0.9954 * 1 * 1.00 * 1.00 = 99.09 %, which means 99.09% to

complete this project within 25 days.