Unit-I - Index Number
Unit-I - Index Number
Index Numbers
The averages, we studied under measures of central tendencies,
are used to find out a representative value of a distribution. In the next
chapter, i.e., in dispersion, we studicd the average of dispersion of
scatteredness from the central value. Here we have to deal with the
average of changes in a group of related variables, that may relate to
periods of time or between places. Generally, the changes are studied
in respect of time rather than place.
If we poSsess rupees ten, we can purchase goods or services worth
rupees ten. But it is not always the same, because the purchasing power
of money, iie., value of money changes now and then. Sometimes money
has greater purchasing power or lesser purchasing power at different
periods. The changes of money value can not be measured directly. It
depends upon the price-level. The value of money, i.e., its decrease or
increase is measured on the basis of price, i.e., its incre ase or decrease.
(AnIndex Number is a number which is used to measure the level
of a certain phenomenon as compared to the level of the same
phenomenon at some stendard period. An Index Number is a statistical
device for comparing the general lével of magnitude of a group of
related variables in two or more situations. If we want to compare the
price level of 1996 with what it was in 993, we may have to look into
agroup of variables-prices of rice, wheat, vegetables clothes, rent etc.
If the changes åre in the same ratioand in the same direction, we face
no difficulty to find out the general price-level. But practically, if we
think changes in different variables are different and that too, upward
or downward, then the price is quoted in
different units millk per litre, rice
or wheat per kilogram, rent per square feet, etc.
We want one figure to indicate the changes of different
commodities as a whole. This is called an Index Number. Index
Number is a number which indicates the changes in magnitude. John I.
Riffin says, An index number is a quantity which, by reference to a
base period, shows by its variations, the changes in the magnitude over
a period of time. In general, index numbers are used to
measure
changes over time in magnitudes which are not capable of direct
measurement." Further, A.M, Tuttle says, Index number is a single
ratio*(Usually in percentage) which measure the combined (i.e.,
A77
478 Statistics
averaged) change of several variables between two different times
places of situations'". Again, Horace Secrist defines, "Index numbers
are serics of numbers by which changes in the magnitude of a
phenomenon are measured from time to time or from place to place»
The above discussion clearly shows that index numbers are a
measure of the average changes in a group of related variables. Index
numbers are specialiscd type of rates, percentages which give the
general level of magnitude of groups of distinct but related variables
in two or more situations. Further, .the prices of some of the
commodities may be increasing while those of others may be
decreasing during the two periods and the rates of increase or decrease
may be different for different commodities. Index number is a
statistical device which enables us to arrive at a single representalive
figure which gives the general level of the price of the phenomenon
(commodities) in an extensive groups.
Some more definitions of index numbers :
"It is anumerical value characterising the change in complex
economic phenomena over a period of time or space."
Maslow
"An index number is a statistical measure designed to show
changes in a variable or a group of related variables with respect to
time, geographical location or other characteristics. »
Spiegal
Index number are devices for measuring differences in the
magnitude of a group of related variables."
Croxton and Cowden
"An index number is a percentage relative that compares
economic measures in a given period with those same measures at a
fixed period in the past."
Clark and Schkade
"In its simplest form, an index number is nothing more than a
relative number, or a relative which expresses are relationship between
two figures, where one of the figures is used as a base."
Morris Hamburg.
Characteristics of Index Numbers
On the basis of the study and
the following points are worth analysis of definitions of Index Numbers,
1 considering:
Index Numbers are specialised
be used to compare only averages : Normally, averages can
those
the same units. But index variables which are expressed in
changes in variables which arenumbers help in
in different unifs. comparing the
479
Index Numbers
2. Index Numbers are expressed in percentages : Index numbers are
of
expressed in terms of percentages so as to show the extent
change. However, percentage sign (%) is never used.
of direct
3. Index Numbers measure changes not capable variation in the
measurement. Where it is difficult to measure the
where the variations are
effects of agroup of variables directly orstudy,
entirely incapable of direct quantitative relative variations
are measured with the help of index
numbers.
numbers by their
4, Index Numbers are for compaison : The index
taking place
nature are comparative. They compare changes
categories.
over time or between places and like
Uses
numbers are today one of the most widelylused statistical
Index relative changes. In
devices. They are particularly useful in measuring
brief, the uses of indexnumbers are shown below :
Index number are particulary
1. They measure the relative change. idea of changes
They give better
useful in measuring relative changes.
business activity, employment, etc.
in levels of prices, production,
numbers are used to measure the
Further, Bowley observes, Index
some quantity, which we cannot observe directly."
changes to
The index numbers reduce the
2. They are of better comparison. and understandable form. The
changes of price level into more useful to percentages which are
numbers of the changes are further reduced
easily comparable.
numbers are not restricted to the
3.. They are good guides. Index phenomenon, which is spread over a
price phenomenon alone. Any expressed numerically through index
period to time, is capable of beingindex numbers serve different uses.
numbers. Thus, various kinds of Various index numbers
are Economic barometers.
4. They employment, trade, transport,
computed for different purposes, say immense value in dealing with
agriculture, industry, etc., are of
index numbers are the economic
different economic problens. Thus
barometers. their
They are the pulse of the economy. The stability of prices or
5.
deflating conditions can well be observed with the help of
inflating or general price level will measure
the
indices. Index numbers of
purchasing power of money. the wage
the wage adjuster. In all the fields of economy,
price index
6. They are the study of consumers
adjustments are done with
allowances of the employees, of the public and
numbers. Dearness determined on the basis of consumers' price
private enterprises are
index number..
480 Statistics
7. They compare the standard of living. Different places have
different index numbers. IndexX numbers may measure the cost of living
of different classes of people. Thus comparison becomes easy in
respect of general price index numbers.
8. They are a special type of averages. Althe basiC ideas of average
are employed for the construction of index numbers. In' average, the
data are homogeneous (in the same units) : but in index number
averages the variables have different units of measurement. Hence it is
a special type.
9. They help in forulating policies. Formulation of good policies
for the future depends upon past trends. Behaviour of the index
numbers are studied carefully before making any policies. For instance,
increase or decrease in wages required to study the cost of living index
number.
10. They measure the purchasing power of money: Index numbers are
helpful in finding out the intrinsic worth of money as contrasted with its
nominal worth. Generally statements are seen that the purchasing power
of Indian rupee in 1997 is only 10 paise as compared to its
purchasing power
in 1990. It means that a person who was having an income of Rs. 100 per
month in 1990 should have an income of Rs. 1,000 to maintain the same
standard which he was maintaining in 1990. This helps in determining the
wage policy of a country.
Formulation of suitable policies in the future depends upon a careful
study of past trends. This can be done only when the bahaviour of the index
numbers during the past is examined closely. For instance, a study of the
cost of living index numbers is essential to determine whether the wages or
dearness allowance in the future have to be increased or not. Indexnumbers
are very useful in studying the trend or tendency of a series spread over a
period of time. With the help of index numbers, it is easy to find out the
trend of exports, balance of payments, industrial production, national
income, prices etc.
Types of Index Numbers
There are various types of index numbers, but in brief we shall
take three kinds, and they are :
(a) Price Index. For measuring the value of money, the general
price index is used. It is an index number which compares the
for a group of commodities at a certain time or at a place with prices
prices
Index Numbers 481
of a base period. There are wholesale price index numbers and retail
price index numbers. The wholesale price index reveals the changes in
the general price level of a country. Retail price index reveals thc
changes in the retail prices of commodities, such as, consumption
goods, bank deposits, bonds, etc.
(6) Quantity Index. Quantity index numbers study the changes in
the volume of goods produced or consumed ; for instance, industrial
production, agricultural production, import, export, ete. They are
useful and helpful to study the output in an economy.
(c) Value Index. These index numbers compare the total value of
a certain period with the total value of the base period. Here the total
value is equal to the price of each, multiplied by the quantity;for
instance, indices of profits, sales, inventories, etc.
Interpretation of Index Numbers
Index numbers are pure numbers without the units of
measurement. Suppose we say the profit for this year is 120% of the
profit for the previous year. It means ; the previous year's profit was
say Rs. 100; this year there is an increase of 20% (Rs. 20). Thus it is
clear that the profit of the current year (this year) is Rs. 120.
PROBLEMS IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF INDEX NUMBERS
The following are some guidelines to be remembered when we
construct index numbers.
1. Purpose or Object. The statistician must clearly determine the
purpose for which the index numbers are to be constructed, because
there is no all purpose index numbers. Every index number has got its
own uses and limitations. For example, if we want to study the changes
in the value of money, then we have to construct index numbers of
wholesale price. If we want to study the changes in the cost of living of
workers of any place, the cost of living index numbers of the workers
must be constructed. Cost of living index numbers of workers in an
industrial area and those of the workers of an agricultural area are
different in respect of requirements. Therefore, it is very essential to
define clearly the purposes of the index numbers and that to0
beforehand.
2. Selection of base. The base period of an index number is very
important as it is used for the construction of index numbers. Every
index number must have abase. One cannot say whether the price level
has increased or decreased, unless one compares the price level of the
current year with the price level of the previous year.
Thus when selecting a base period, the year must be recent and
normal. A normal year is one which is free from economic and natural
disturbances, widespread failure of rains, earthquakes, war, strikes,
482 Statistics
production crisis, etc. If such abnormal years are considered, then the
index number will be a misleading onc.
Therefore, the year to be selected as base year must be normal
year or a typicalycar and a recent year. In the fast changing world of
today, the more recent the year the more representative willit be. The
base may be of the following type.
(a) Fixed base. The name reveals that the base year is a fixed one.
The prices of a particular year, selected as a base period are treated as
equal to 100. The changes in the prices of subsequent years are shown
as the percentages of the base year.
(b) Average base. Sometimes it is difficult to select an year as base
through normality. Under such a critical position, the average of
several years is considered better, as abnormalities can be reduced to
great extent.
(c) Chain base. In fixed base method, the base year once selected,
remains fixed and all index numbers are based on the same base year.
In this method, there is no fixed base year. It changes from year to year.
When a comparison is desired from year to year, a system of chain base
is used. It is the previous year that is taken as the base for the current
year ; and the change is calculated as a percentage of that year. For
instance, for 1983, the base year is 1982; for 1982, the base year is
1981, for 1981, the base year is 1980 and so on. There is no question of
normal year. Long period comparison cannot be made.
3. Selection of commodities (Selection of Regiman) If we study the
price changes of one commodity, we have to include only one item. For
instance, if we study the changes in production of cloth, then we may
include the production of mill cloth, power loom cloth, handloom
cloth, silk, khadi, etc., and there is no problem. Another exampie, say
index of retail price ; we cannot include al commodities sold in retail.
We include only the important commodities which are representative
of tastes, habits and customs of the people. For the purpose of finding
the cost of living index number, of low income group, we have to select
only those items or commodities, which are mostly consumed by that
group.
4.Source of data. The price relating to the thing to be measured
must be collected. If we want to study the changes in industrial
production, we must collect the prices relating to the production of
various goods of factories. The price may be collected from reliable
sources. The prices of commodities are the raw materials for the
construction of index numbers. The prices may be collected from the
public sources or from standard commercial magazines. The
collection of data, i.e., price must be representative,comparable and
accurate.
483
Jndex Numbers
S. Selection of Averages. One can use any
average. But In
practice, the arithmetic average is used, because it is easy for
are difficult to
compuation ; geometric mean and harmonic mean.
calculate. But geometric mean is preferred because of the(b)following
It gives
characteristics (a) Geometric mean is the best measure and
items.
less weight to bigger items and more weight to smaller
6.Weighting. Allcommodities are not equally important. The main
changes in the
purpose of an indexX number of prices, is to ascertain the have equal
price level. In case of simple average, all commodities will
wil! have
importance. But in actual practice, different groups of people when the
different preferences on different commodities. For instance,
halved, the
price of rice or wheat is doubled and the price of sugaris isessential has
people suffer much, because the price of rice which
been doubled ; but as regards the sugar it is not so important as rice
or wheat. Therefore, to stress the importance, the system of weightingis
is adopted. John Griffin observes, "In simple terms weighting to
designed to give component series an importancc in proper relation
their real significance."
The relative importance is the basis of weightage. Generally, the
quantities of the commodities produced or the values of quantities of
the goods sold, demanded or purchased are taken as suitable weights.
These weights relate to the base year or the current years, depending
on their availability or suitability. Moreover, it is important that the
weighting system should be devised in such amanner, that it will
properly represent the commodities.
There are two methods of weighting ;
(a) Implicit weighting,
(b) Explicit weighting.
(a) Implicit weighting. Weights are not expressly laid down. The
weights are implied by the nature of commodities selected. It means
the weights relate to the selection of commodities themselves.
Emphasis is to be given to the commodities according to the number of
times the given commodities are included in the selection. For example,
a particular commodity is included say, 4 times, the weight given to the
commodity is four.
(b) Explicit weighting. Weights are expressly laid down on the basis
of importance of the items. In case only one variety is included in the
construction of index numbers, then the price is multiplied by the
quantity.
Choice of formulae
Unweighted Weighted
(simple)
Unweighted
1, Simple aggregate method. This is the simplest method ol
constrùcting the index numbers. The prices of the different
commodities of the current year are added and the total is divided by
the sum of the prices of the base year commodity and multiplied by
100 : symbolically,
ZP, × 100
P, - EP,
P,
01 = Price index number for the current year with reference
to the base year.
Aggregate of prices for the current year.
2P, = Aggregate of prices for the base year.
Steps :
1. Prices of allcommodities of current years are added to get
P,
2. Prices of all commodities of base years are added to get
2P
3. EP, is divided by ZP, and multiplied with 100.
Illustration 1
90 110
D 30 35
2 P0=250 EP=300
Pon 2P 300
X 100 = 120
250
486, Statistics
This means that the prices have increased in the year 1991 to éhe
extent of 20% when compared with the prices of 1990.
Defects in Simple Aggregate Method
Largely numbered figures largely influence the index aumber. For
instan ce, 10% decrease in commodity A will bring down the index
number. But 10% decrease in commodity D has little influehce. The
relative importance of various commodities is not taken into account in
the index as it is unweighted.
2. Simple average of pricerelative method. In this method, the price
relative of each item is calculated separately and then áveraged. A
price relative is the price of the current year expressed as a percentage
of the price of the base year : symbolically,
|P, x 100)
Po N N
N= Number of items
When the geometric mean is employed, instead of the arithmetic
mean then the formula is
(P, x 100)
£ log
Po
Po1. = antilog
N
E logP
antilog N
P × 100
where P
P
Illustration 2
Compute a price index for the following by a (a) simple aggregate
and (b)average of price relative method by using both arithmetic mean
and geometric mean :
A B C D E
Commodity
Price in 1986 (Rs.) 20 30 10 25 40 50
(B.Com.Kerala)
Solution :
205
:X100
175
= 117143
Calculation for Price Index
Commodiy Price in 1986. Price in 1991 Price relative log p
Po -plpr*p)x100
A 20 25 125 2.0969
B 30 30 100 2.0000
10 15 150 2.1761
D 25 3S 140 2.1461
40 45 1125 2.0511
F SS 110 2.0414
175 205 7375 125116
(b) (0) Arithmetic Mean of Price
Relatives = Po1
N
>po, = 737.5, N'= 6
737.5
6
= 12292
(ü) Geometric Mean of Price
Relative Index = Antilog log2
N
= Antilog 125116|
6
= Antilog 2.0853
= 121,7.
Merits of simple Average of Price
1. It gives equal
Relative aethod :
importance to all items.
2. Extreme items do not
unduly affect the index numbers.
3. The influence due to
diferent units is completely removed.
Demerits :
1. The use of
geometric mean involves difficulties of
computation.
2. It fails to give any
different items. consideration to the relative importance of
Statistics
488
Weighted Index Numbers we
numbers are of two types. The index numbers
Weighted index
unweighted and they assign equal importance to
have studied above are the index. The purpose of weighting is to make
allthe items included in representative and to give more importance to
the index numbers more
them. They are :
index numbers. According to this method.
1. Weighted aggregate
weighted by quantities ; i.e., p Xq. Thus physical
prices themselves areas weights. There are various methods of assigningthe
quantities are used
various formulas have been formed for
weights, and thus
construction of index numbers.
are given below:
Some of theimportant formulae
1. Laspeyres method
2.
Paasche's method
3. Dorbish and Bowley's method
4.
Fisher's Ideal method
5.
Marshall-Edgeworth method
6. Kelly's method, and
Walsch's method
the base year quantities
7.
method. In this method,
(4) Laspeyre's
are taken as weights : symbolically,
2p,g% X 100
Po1(a) Ep,40
Steps : commodities with
year prices of various
1. Multiply the current obtain P,4o
base year weights and commodities with
year prices of various
2. Multiply the base obtain PAo
base year weights and
and multiply the quotient by 100. The
Pa,
3. Divide P,g, by us the price index.
above steps give current year quantities
method, the
(B) Paasche's method. In this
are taken as weights : symbolically,
Ep41 x100
Pos(pa)p,41
Steps : with
Multiply current year prices of various commodities
1.
current year weights and obtain P, q,.
the
Multiply the base year prices of various commodities with
2.
current year weights and obtain P, g,
Yndex Numbers 489
478.5,395
380.0 324 X 100 = 123.9
2
or
L+P 125.9+121.9
2 2
= 123.9
(d) Fisher's ideal formula
X Ep,41 X 100
V478.5 X 395 Ep,41
380 324 X 100
= V1.259 X1.219 x 100
= 1.239 × 100 = 123.9
(e) Marshall Edgeworth method
Pa,
Z 01 = Ep,46+2p191
Zp,q6+2p,41
X 100 = 478.5+395
380.0+324
X 100
873.5 x 100
= 1.24 X 100 = 124.
704
Statistics
492
2 PV = 18249.85
155
117.74
Statistics
194
144 14 196
B 12
16 256
C 14 196
18 324
D 16 256
20 400
18 324
Illustration :6
From the following data calculate price index numbers for 1995 with
1985 as base by (1) Laspeyre's method, (2) Paasche's method, (3)
Marshall·Edgeworth method and (4) Fisher's Ideal method :
Comnodiy 1985 1995
Price Quantiy Price uantiy
A 20 40 6
B 50 10 60
40 15 S0 15
D 20 20 20 25
2070
X 100 = 124.70
1660
1790
X 100== 121.77
1470
(3) Marshal Edgeworth Index :
Po1 =
EP (90 + 4) + }p,91
X 1000 =
EPol4o +41) = 100
496 Statistics
2070 + 1790 3860
X 100 = x 100
1660 + 1470 3130
= 123.32
(4) Fisher's Ideal Index:
X X 100
Po1=
=
V2070 1790 X 100
1660 1470
Zplo PAi
Pu= SpA EpAo
X
Epa, 2pg0
}p41 2pAi PA0
Po XPy= X X X = 1=1
EpAo ZpA1
Itshows that the time reversal test is satisfied.
2/Factor Reversal Test
Another basic test is that the formula for index number ought to
permit interchanging the prices and quantities without giving
inconsistent results i.e., the two results multiplied together should give
the true value ratio. A good index number should satisfy not only the
time reversal test, but also the factor reversal test. A good index
number should allow time reversibility, interchange of the base year
and the current year, without giving inconsistent results.
10 15 12
A 12
20
B 15
20 9
C 24
16 5 14
D
(M.Com. Nagpur)
Solution :
Computation of Index Number
Po =
VPao X pa X 100
EpAo EpAi
505 530
X X 100
425 470
= V1.188 X 1.128 x 100
V1.340 x 100 = 1.158 x 100
115.8
(i) Time-Reversal Test
Time Reversal Test is satisfied when P XP = 1
X
Po=
V470 X 425
530 505
530 470 425
505
Po XP = V 425 470 530 505
= 1.
Index Numbers 499
Zpo4%
qPo X
Construct with the help of the table below, Fisher's Ideal Index.
1987 1991
60 6 60
D 10 30 12 24
E 40 12
Also prove from-the above data that the Factor Reversal and
Time Reversal tests are satisfied by Fisher's ideal formula.
(Madras B. Com. Aligarh, M. Com.)
Solution : Construction of Fisher's Ideal Index
Base Quan Curent uan
Commo- Yr.Price. Piq0 P1Q1 poq1
tity yr. tiy
dities p0 g0
Price p1 q1
A 6 50 10 56 300 S00 S60 336
2 100 2 120 200 200 240 240
60 6 60 240 360 360 240
Statistics
500
360 288 240
12 24 300
D 10 30
480 432 288
12 36 320
E 40
Ep1qo Ep1qi } poq1
Total Zpoqo 1900 1880 1344
1360
= 139.8
satisfied if
Factor Reversal test is
Epa1
Po X lo =
EpAo
X X X
Po Xlo =
Substituting the values
V1900 X 1880 1344 1880
X X
Po X Lo1 = 1360 1334 1360 1900
1880
1360
1880
Now
Ep41 is also equal to 1360
EpA reversal test also. Time
Fisher's Ideal Index satisfies factor
reversal test is satisfied if
Po XPo=1
X
EpA1 X EpAo
EpAo EpAi
Substituting the values from the table
1990y1880 1344
P,Po XP, = V1360
1360
1344 1880 1900
= 1
Time Reversal te[t is satisficd by Fisher's Ideal formula.
Index Numbers
501
Unit Test
This test requires that the index number formula should be
independent of the units in which the prices or quantities of various
commodities are quoted. This test is satisfied by all the formula except
the simple aggregative index.
Circular Test :
This is another test for the adequacy of an index number. It is an
extension of time reversal test. According to this test, the index should
work in a circular fashion. For instance, an index number is
constructed for the year 1985 with the base of 1984 and another index
number for 1984 on the base of 1983, then it should be possible for us
to directly get an index number for 1985 on the base of 1983. If the
index number calculated directly does not give inconsistent value, the
circular test is said to be satisfied. Their product should be equal to 1.
Po X P2 X Po = 1
This test is satisfied only by the indexX number formula based on :
(1)Simpie geumeric mean of the price relatives (2) Kelly's fixed base
method.
Chain Base Method
The base may be fixed or changing. So far we have used the fixed
base method in various formulas. In the fixed base method, the base
remains constant throughout i.e., the relative for all the year is based on
the prices of that single year. On the other hand, in the chain base
method, the relative for each year is found out from the prices of the
immediately preceding year. Thus the base changes from year to year.
The indices which we find out by this method are called
index numbers or link relatives. These link relatives link relative
are linked
together. For example, if we are to compute an index
1976, the base year is 1975 ; an index number tor 1977, the number for
is 1976;for 1978, the base year is 1977 base year
and so on.
The following formula is used for finding out the
chain index :
Linkrelative of the current year x Previous
Chain Index year Chain Index
100
Construction of Chain Indices
Steps : 1. Link relatives are found out by stating the
cach year as percentage of the preceding year; i.e., the link figures foris
relative
equal to Current year's price
Previous year's price X 100.
2. Link together these percentages by successive multiplication to
get link relatives.
Statistics
502
current year
3. Chain index for index ofpreviousyear
Average link relative x Chain
of thecurrent year
100
Illustration 9
base index numbers into chain base
Convert the following fixed
index numbers: 1990 1991
1988 1989
1986 1987
Year: 392 400
.408 380
376 392
E.BI. :
(B.Com. Punjab,)
Solution :
Conversion of F.B.I. to C.B.I.
Merits :
great advantage to economists and
1. The chain base method is a change that has come
businessmen, It helps them to know the extent of
year.
in the current year, as compared to the previous
2. We can introduce new items and
omit old items without any
price index and
recalculation. It is flexible and so used in consumer
wholesale price index.
than by the other
3. It is more free from seasonal variation
methods.
4. Weights can be adjusted as frequently as possible.
Index Numbers 503
Demerits :
1. It is a very difficult task toselect the items to be included or
omitted.
2. If there is any abnormal year or any defect in any place, it will
affect the subsequent year also.
Differences between Chain Base method and Fixed Base method :
1. The base year changes. The base year does not change.
No such link relative method is used.
2. Here the link relative method is used.
in the commodities, will involve
3. Introduction and eletion of items are easy Any changeindex number to be recast.
entire
to calculate, without recalculation of thethe
entire series.
The calculations are simple.
4. The calculations are tedious.
5. It is difficult to understand. It is simple to understand
is no such problem
6. It cannot be computed if data for any oneThere
year are missing.
It is suitable for long periods only.
7. It is suitable for short period only.
adjusted so frequenty.
|8. Weights can be adjusted as frequently as Weights cannot be
possible.
not so, the error is confined to the
9. Index number is wrong if an error isThis is
committed in the calculation of any link index index of that year only.
number.
(B.Com. Madras)
Solution :
Construction of Fixed Base Index
1988 110 80 88
X 110
100
1990 90 80
X 110, 120 X 90
95.04
110 100 100
Base shifting :
Sometimes it is necessary to shift the base from one period to
another for comparison purposes or for other reasons like, the previous
base becoming very old to compare. By base shifting, we can express
the series in terms of a recent period. The change of reference base
period is called shifting the base. The following formula must be used
in this method of base shifting.
Index Number (based on New Base Year)
Current year's old index number X 100
New base year's old index number
Illustration 11
Reconstruct the following Index Number Numbers by'shifting base to:
) 1995 and (ü) 1997
Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Inxex Nos. 120 150 160 180 200 200 210 240
(Bombay B. Com.)
Index Numbers 505
Illustration' :12
Two sets of Indices, one with 1976 as base and the other with 1984
as base are given below :
(a) Year Index Numbers (b) year Ihdex Numberr
1976 100
1977 110
1978 120 1984 100
S06 Statistics
190 1985 105
1979
1980 300 1986 90
The Index (a) with 1976 base was discontinued in 1984. You are
required to splice the second index number (b) with 1984 base to the
first index number.
Solution:
Splicing of Index Numbers
1977 110
1978 120
1979 190
1980 300
1981 330
1982 360
1983 390
Solution:
Construction of Index Number by Base Shifting
Index Numbers Inda Numbers
Year Base (1992 = 100)
Base (1989 = 100)
100 100 X 100 == 50
1989
200
200 200
1992 X 100= 100
200
206 206 X 100 = 103
1993
200
Money wage
Statistics
Real wage = Price Index X 100
Real Wage of Income Index No.
Index of money wage X 100
Price Index No.
or
Realwage of the current year X 100
Real wage of the base year
Illustration: 14
Given the following data:
Year Weekly take-home Consumner Price
pay (wages) Index
1991 109.5 112.8
1992 112.2 118.2
1993 116.4 127.4
1994 125.08 138.2
1995 135.4 143.5
1996 138.1 149.3
(1) What was the real average weekly wage for each year ?
(2) In which year did the employee have the greatest buying power?
(3) What percentage increase in the weekly wages for the year 1996
is required, if any, to provide the same buying power that the
employees enjoyed in the year in which they had the highest real
wages ?
(B.C. (Hons.), Delhi)
Calculation of Real Wages
Year Weekiy take-home pay Consumer price Index Realwages
(Rs.)
1991 109.5 112.8 109.5
X 100 = 97.07
112.8
(B.Com. Bombay.)
Solution:
Calculation of Index Number by using Aggregate Expenditure
Method.
Commodiny Po P1 Piqo Poqo
A 100 12.00 1200.00 800
B 25 6 7.50 187.50 150
C 10 5.25 52.50 50
D 20 48 52,00 1040.00 960
E 65 15 16.50 1072.50 975
F 30 19 27.00 810.00 570
where P = Pi X 100 for each item and =value weight i.e., poqo.
Po
"Weighted average price relative method" which we have studied
before and "family budget method'" are the same for finding out
consumer price index.
Index Numbers 513
Illustration : 16,
Calculate index number of prices for 1996 on the basis of 1995
:
from the data given below
Price pe unit Price per unit
Commodity Weight
1979 1989
40 16.00 20.00
A
25 40.00 60.00
B
5 0.50 0.50
20 5.12 6.25
D
2.00 1.50
10
(Lucknow)
Solution :
Calculation of Index Numbers
£V=100 2PV
= 12,442
12,442 = 124.42
100
Price Index Number for 1996 = Rs. 124.42
Limitations of Index Numbers
Even though index numbers are very important in business and
economic activities, they have their own limitations ; they are :
314
Statistics
1, There may be error in each stage of the construction of the
index number, namely, selection of commodities, selection of
the base period, selection of weight, etc.
2. Index numbers may not represent the exact change in price
level, because they are based on sample data.
3. Tastes, habits and customs of people change in course of time
and may make the weighting not suitable for the present data,.
4. In cach index there is an index error, because there is no
formula for measuring the price change. So there is the
formula error. Hence it will not be a representative one.
5. By selecting a suitable year as the base year, selfish persons
may get their desired results.
Index numbers, properly constructed, will be useful as economic
baraometer.
IHustration 17
Solution: Construction or index Numbers
Year Price Index Number
Current year price x 100
Base year price
1981 40 100
1983 35 35 X 100=87.5
40
1984 33 33 X 100=82.5
40
1985 39 39
x 100=975
40
1986 40 40
X 100=100
40
1987 42 42
x 100=105
40
1988 48 48
x 100=120
40
35 33 39 40 42 48 5S 70
Price 40 42
(B.Com. Andhra)
llustration 18
index numbers and
The following table gives the group price
percentages of expenditure on various groups, obtained from inquiries
families of Bombay.
into the budget of the middle class
Index Number
Percentag of Group price
Group 1989 1991
Expendinure
350 440
35
Food
220 330
Fuel and Lighting 10
230 400
Clothing 20
160 105
15
Rent
190 340
Miscellaneous 20
comparea
What changes are in the level of cost of living of 1991 is
to that of 1989.
(BA. Bombay)
Solution : Calculation of Cost of Living Index
PxV
Group 1989 1991
P=x 100 Percenage
{Po) = V
Po
EV=100 2 PV =
13,941.3:
516
Statistics
£ PV
C.I. =
13941.50
100
= 139,415
Cost of living of 1991
= 139.42
Illustration : 19
An enquiry into the budgets of middle class families in a certain city
gave the following information :
Expenses Food Fuel Clothing Rent Miscellaneous
35% 10% 20% 15% 20%
Prices (1995) Rs. 150 Rs. 25 Rs. 75 Rs. 30 Rs. 40
Prices (1996) Rs. 145 Rs. 23 Rs. 65 Rs. 30 Rs.45
What is the cost of living index number of 1996 as compared with that
of 1995 ?
(B.Com, Kerala)
Solution:
Construction of Cost of Living Index
Po
Food 150 145 96.67 35 3383,45
Fuel 25 23 92.00 10 920.00
2= 100 EPW=
9786.85
SPW
Cost of Living Index EW
9786.85
100
=97.87
0ndex Numbers 517
Illustration :20
Construct the consumer price index number for 1996 on the basis of
1995 from the foilowing data using the aggregate expenditure method:
Commodity Quantity Consumed Prices in 1995 Prices in 1996
1995 Rs. Rs.
A 6Quintal 5.75 6.00
B 6Quintal 5.00 8.00
C 1Quintal 6.00 9.00
D 6Quintal 8.00 10.00
E 4Kg 2.00 1.50
F 1Quintal 20.00 15.00
(B.Com, Bangalore)
Solution:
Construction of Consumer Price Index Number
2p190= 174
= 146.50
Miscellaneous Illustrations
Illustration 22
With the help of the following data prove that Fisher's Ideal Index
satisfies both the time reversal test and factor reversal test.
(M. Com. Jodhpur)
krdex Numbers 519
1980 1990
Comnodiy Price Value Price Value
A S0 6 72
B 7 84 10 80
C 10 80 12 96
D 4 20 30
56 8 64
Solution: Calculation of Fisher's Ideal Index
1980 1990
Commo-| Price Quan Price Quan Piq0 Poqo Piq1 Pogi
diy po tity P1 tiy
41
A 10 6 12 60 50 12 60
B 7 12 10 120 84 80 56
C 10 8 12 96 80 96 80
D 4 6 25 20 30 24
7 56 S6 64 64
357 290 342 284
Time Reversal Test -
Time reversal test is satisfied when
Po X P =1
Epgo ZpAi
2p,4, =357, Zpq, = 342,
Zpdo = 290, pA, = 284.
X
ZpA, =284, Ep41 Epao
2pAo = 290
Statisticy
520
357
Zpg, =342, 2p,40 =
V284 X 290
Pio 342 357
357, 342 X 284 X 290
Po XPn = 290 284 342 357
=V1
Po, XPo=1
Factor Reversal Test i
satisfied when
Factor reversal test is
Ep41
Pa,Po x o1 SpAo
=
= VP4Epg,
P, X
7 7 4
1991 12
1985 1991
Commodiry qiPo qoPo q1Pi, qoP1
Po Pi q1
4 12 60 50 48 40
10
7 56 48 49 42
6 7
5 4 24 18 20 15
6 3
EqPo X 100
140 X 100 = 120.68
116
QoP) = x 100=117
X100
97
= 120.62
= V120.68 X120.62
= 120.65
Illustration 25
the link relatives given
Construct Chain Index Numbers from
below:
1990 1991
1987 1988 1989
Year :
115 102
100 105 95
Link index :
(B.Com. Hons. Delhi,)
InderNumbers
523.
Calculation for Chain Index
Year Index
Chain Index Numbers
1987 100
100
1988 105 105
X 100=105
100
1989 95 95
105 X 100=90.48
1990 115 115
x 100=121
95
1991 102 102 X 100=88.7
115
Illustration 26
The following table gives the group price index number and
percentage of expenditure on various groups, obtained from inguiries
into the budget of the middle class families of Bombay :
Group %of Expendiure Group Price Index Number
1990, 1992
Food 35 350 440
Fuel and Lighting 10 220 330
Solution:
(BA. Bombay)
Illustration 2
construction of a certain Cost of Living Index Number the
In the found. Calculate the Cost of
following group index numbers were
Index Number by using (i) the weighted arithmetic mean (ii) the
Living
weighted geometric mean.
Index Number Weighs
Group
350
1. Food
1
200
2. Fuel and Lighting
1
240
3. Clothing
1
4. House Rent 160
2
250
5. Miscellaneous
PoW = 285
10
=
Antilog 24.4016
10
= Antilog (2.4401)
= 15.5
Group Index Number I Weights W IW Log I Log I x W
Food 350 1750 2.5441 12.7205
Fuel and Lighting 200 1 200 2.3010 2.3010
Clothing 240 1 240 2.3802 2.3802
House Rent 160 1 160 2.2041 2.2041
Miscellaneous 250 2 500 2.3979 4.7958
£ W=10 2 W= ELogIx W=
2850 24.4016
Illustration,28
Calculate the index number by the application of Laspeyre's
formula and Paasche's formula from the following data :
Units Consumed Price per unit
Commodity
1986 1988 1986 1988
A 20 16 1.2 2.0
B 35 38 2.1 2.4
C 10 3.0 4.1
D 4 S0 0.8 1.2
And also calculate Fisher's Ideal Index.
Paasche's Index
220.10 x 100
166
= 132.59
Illustration 29
numbers given below, prepare fixed
From the chain base index
base index number : 1987 1988
1985 1986
1983 1984
103 101
104 98
102
92
the index number for 1984 is
1983 is taken at 100,
If the base at
102. (B.Com. Kerala)
Solution :
Index Number
Computation of Fixed Base
Fired Base
Changed to
Chain Base Chain base Index Numbers
1983 as base
Index
Year Numbers
ndéx
Nunbers
92
1983 92
93.84
92 X 102
1984 102
100
'97.59
1985 104 92 102 X 104
100 100
95.64
98 92 102 104 x 98
1986 100
100 100
98.51
103 X 98
92 102,104, x 103
1987 100 100
100 100
99.495
1988 101 9202 X 104 X 98
100
x 101
100 100 100 100
Index Numbers
527
Illustration :30
The following data relate to the income of the people and the General
Index Number of prices of a certain region.
Calculate: (1) Real income and
(2) Index numbers of real income with 1988.
Year Income (Rs.) General price Index Nos.
1988 800 100
1989 819 105
1990 825 110
1991 876 120
1992 920 125
1993 938 140
1994 924 140
(B.Com, Madurai)
Solution:
Computation of Real Income Index Numbers
Year Income (Rs.)Price Index Number Real Income Real Income Index
Number
1988 800 100 800 × 100 100
= 800
100
1989 819 105 819 × 100 780
= 780 x 100 = 975
105 800
1990 825 110 825 × 100 750
= 750 X 100= 93.75
110 800
1991 876 120 876 ×100 =730
730
X 100 = 91.25
120 800
1992 920 125 920 × 100 736
=736 X 100 = 92
1993
125, 800
938 140 938 × 100 670
=670 x 100 = 83.75
140 800
1994 924 140 924 × 100 660
= 660 X 100 = 82.5
140 800
Illustration:31
Calculate the Laspayre's and the Paasche's Index Numbers from the
following data and comment on the relative merits of the two.
528 Statistics
(B.Com, Madras)
Solution:
Computation of Laspayre's And Paasche's Indices
Comn Base Year Current Year
odity Po 90 Po1 P190 P191
Price po Quantity|Pricep, uantity
41
A 0.80 10.00 0.70 11.00 8.00 8.80 7.00 7.70
B 0.85 8.00 0.90 9.00 6.80 7.65 7.20 8.10
C 1.30 S.00 0.80 5.50 6.50 7.15 4.00 4.40
21.30 23.60 18.20 20.20
Paasches Index =
~p1 41 X 100
PoP1
20.20
X 100
23.60
= 85.59
Illustration :32
Compute the Cost of Living Index Numbers using both the Aggregate
Expenditure and Family Budget Method from the following information :
Index Numbers 529
Comnodity Unit consumption in Price in base year Rs. Price in curent year Rs.
base year
A 200 10 12
B 30 35
C 50 40
D 20 200 300
40 25 50
F 50 100 150
G 60 20 25
H 40 150 180
(B.Com,, Gujarat)
Solution :
Calculation of Cost of Living Index by Aggregate Expenditure
2PW
Cost of Living Index X 100
30,85,005 X 100
22,700
= 135.903
Illustration :33
indeX numbers
Prepare fixed base index numbers from the chain base
given below:
Solution :
Construction of Fixed Base Index
Fixed Base Index
Chain Base
Year
94
94
1989
104 × 94
104 =97.76
1990 100
104 X 97.76 101.67
1991 104
100
93 X 101.67
1992 93 = 94.55
100
103 × 94.55 =97.39
1993 103
100
102 × 97.39
1994 102 = 99.34
100
IndexNumbers
531
Year 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
1994
Chain Index 94 104 104 93 103
102
Illustration:34
(B.Com., Kerala)
The following are the prices of
Calculate a price indexxbased on price commcdities in 1990 and 1995.
relatives, using the geometric mean:
Year Commodity
A B C D E F
1990 45 60 20 50 85 120
1995 55 70 30 75 90 130
(B.Com, Bharathiar)
Solution :
Computation of Price Index
Commodity 1990 Po 1995 P, P 100 P LogP
Po t
A 45 122.22 2.0872
B 60 70 116.67 2.0669
20 30 150.00 2.1761
D 50 75 150.00 2.1761
85 90 105.88 2.0248
F 120 130 108.33 2.0348
£ log P =
12.5659
= Antilog 12.5659
6
= Antilog 2.0948
= 124,4
Illustration :35
The cost of living index number on a certain date was 200. From the
Dase period, the percentage increase in prices were :
Rent-60,
lothing250, Fuel and Light-150 and Miscellaneous 120. What was the
percentage increase in the food group ?
The weights for different
groups were :
Food-60; Rent- 16; Fuel and light-8: Miscellaneous 4, Clothing-12
532 Statistics
Solution:
ComputationsofIndex
Curent lndex I Weight V IV
% increase in
Group
Price
X 100 + X 60 60 (100+x) =
Food 6000 + 60x
160 16 2560
Rent 60
350 12 4200
250
Clothing
250 2000
Fuel and Light 150
320 4 880
Miscellaneous 120
2V= 100 2IV = 60 X
+ 15640
or
Cost of Living Index of Current Year = 200
EIV
= 200
1990 70 110 70
x 100 = 63.64 63.64
110 x 100 = 97.91
65
1991 75 120 75 x100 = 62.50 62.50
120 x 100 = 96.15
65
1992 80 130 80 61.54
X 100 = 61.54 X 100 = 94.68
130 6.5
1993 90 150 90 60
X 100 = 60.00 KE X100 =92.31
150
Illustration:37
Itis stated that the Marshall Edgeworth Indexis agood approximation
to the ideal index numbers. Verify using the following data :
Commodity 1994 1996
Price Quantity Price Quantity
A 2 74 3 82
B 7 125 4 140
7 40 6 33
(B. Com, Bombay)
Solution:
Construction of Marshall Edgeworth and ideal Index Numbers.
Commodity P P1 41 Po 90 Po91 P190 P191
A 2 74 3 82 148 164 222 246
B 125 4 140 625 700 S00 560
7 40 6 33 280 231 240 198
Pofo= 1053 p10 Zp191
= 1095 =962 = 1004
962 1004
X 100
1053
XT095
965848
1153035 X 100 = V0.837657 x 100
= 0.91523 × 100
= 91.523
Marshal Edgeworth Index is a good approximation to the Fisher's
Ideal Index number.
Illustration 38
From the fixed base index number given below, prepare chain
base index numbers :
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
94 998 102 95 98 100
1991 94 94 94
Po X lo1 = 2P41
2PA0
THEORET0CAL QUESTIONS
1.
"Index numbers are economic barometers". Explain the statement and explain
what precautions should be taken in making use of published index number.
(B. Com. Madras).
2.
What is an Index number ? Why are index numbers called "Economic
barometers" ?
(B. Com. Bombay,)
3. Analyse the problems in the construction of index numbers and comment on the
need for weighting.
4
(B. Com. Madras)
What are the tests of a good index number ? Define Fisher Ideal index number
and show that it satisfies all these tests.
5.
(B. Com. Madurai)
Discuss briefly the uses and limitations of index numbers of
prices.
6 (B. Con. Bombay )
Distinguish between fixed-based andchain
points of importance in choosing the base inbased index numbers. What are the
the determination of cost of living
index numbers ?
7.
Explain how a cost of living index number is (B. Com. Madras)
formula used to construct such an index constructed and examine critically the
serve? number. What purpose do such indice
(B.A. Econ. Bombay)
nlexNUmbers
537
required to construct a cost of living
You are What
8. Bombay. information will you collect for theindex for the textile workers 1:
index ? purpose ? Explain the methoo
of constructing the
pefine () Laspeyres' (ii) Paasche's and (ii) Fisher index(BA.number
Econ. Bombay)
of
Comment on the statement, "LaspeyTe OVer prices.
under estimates them in estimates the price changes while
Paasche general, and hence Fisher provides a better
actimate than both Laspeyre's and Paasche's"
(B.A, Econ.Hons. Calcutta)
PRACTICAL PROBLEMS
Calculate current year price index number by using various formulae from the
10.
following
Base Year data Current year data
Commodity Price per unit Quantity Price per unit Quantiy
1 10 15
A
B 5 12 6 10
10
2 100 120
4 60 6 60
C
12 24
D 10 30
See whether this satisfies factor reversal test and time reversal test.
(B. Com. Annamalai)
(Ans. Po1 = 136.8)
numbers
12. Calculate (a) Paasche's index, (b) Laspeyre's index and (c) Fisher's index
for the following data :
P q1
Commodity Po 40
15 25
A 12 20
10
B 16
10
1
2 12
15
1
D 1 65
60
1
10
3 2
(B.Com Madras)
129.60)
(Ans. (a) 130.13 (b) 129.09 (c)
538 Statistics
13. From thc tollowing data calculate price index numbers for 1990 with 1981 ab vaNs
by (i) Laspcyre's method, (i) Paasche's method, (ii) Marshall-Edgeworth method
and (iv) Fisber's method :
1981 1990
Comnodiry
PO P1 qi
A 20 40 6
B 10 60
C 40 15 S0 15
D 20 209 20 25
(B.Com. Delhi)
(Ans. () 124.70, (ii) 121.77, (ii) 123.3 (iv) 123.2)
14. The following data relate to the prices and quantities of five commodities in the
years 1989 and 1990. Construct the following index numbers of price for the year
1990 by taking 1989 as the base year. (a) Laspeyre 's index (b) Paasche's index, (c)
Fisher's index, (d) Marshall's index, (e) Bowley's index and Kelly's index:
1989 1990
100 15 80
B 12
150 10 125
C
200 250
D 10
80 60
6
P q1
Commodity Po q0
3 18
14
6 25
2 8 18
40
3 3 25
12 48
15 36
7 18
14
5 19
6 7 13
(B. Com. Madurai)
Index Numbers
539
(Ans. (a) 73.61 (b) 73.05 (c) 73.22 (d) T3.19 (ey 13.29 y 96.96)
16. From the following information, construct (a) Laspeyre's index, (b) Paasche's
index, (c) Fisher's index, (d) Bowiey's index, (e) Marshall's index and () Kelley's
index.
Commodity Po q0 P1 q0
Rs. Rs.
1 15 14 18 10
2 16 18 19 15
3 19 35 25 20
4 24 39 29 30
21 40 25 35
6 16 31 18 25
(Ans. (a) 121.04 (b), 120.38 (c) 120.70 (d) 120.71 (e) 120.75 () 120.75)
17. Construct the Cost of Living Index Number of 1990 using the Family Budged
Method.
(Madurai, Kamraj)
(Ans. 125.65)
18. The following table gives the date of
production in tons andprice per ton of 4
principal crops in India, during the year 1980-81 and 1989-90.
base, construct Fisher's Ideal Number of price for Taking 1980-81 as
l989-90.
20 30 600 1000
D 10 22 200 300
Statistics
540
(BA,, Econ. Madurai,)
(Ans. Po1=120.3)
in 1985 and 1990. Calculate a price index
19. The following are prices of commodities
geometric mean.
based on price relatives, using the
Commodity
Year C D
A
20 50
46 50
1985
30 75
55 70
1990
(B.Com. Bombay,)
(Ans. 124.2)
1988
1987
Comnodiny
Price Quantiy Price
Quantiy
15 12
12 10
A
15 7 20
B
20 9
C 24 5
14
D 5 16
(M.Com. Nagpur, Rohtak)
(Ans. 11S.76)
following data and comment on it :.
21. Calculate Fisher's Quantity Index from the
Current Year
Base Year
Price (Rs.) Value
Price (Rs.) Value
Commodiy
12 300
A 10 200
10 220
B 8 108
25 250
C 20 160
20 140
D 18 144
30 300
35 280
(B.Com. Bombay)
(Ans. 103.88)
Index Numbers
54]
22. From chain base index numbers given below, prepare fixed base index numbers :
(B.Com Kerala)
(Ans. 80 ; 88; 105.6; 110.9; 105.3)
23. From the data given below construct an index number (i) with 1980 as base (ii)by
chain base method :
Price of commodity from 1980 to 1985
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
50 60 62 65 70 78
(Ans. (i) 100; 120 ; 124 ; 130; 140 ; 156.
(it)( 100;120; 124; 130; 140; 156.
(Answers are the same because the indices have been computed for one
commodity only).
24. What are the uses of the cost of iving index number ? Calculate the cost of living
index number from the following data :
Price
Items
Weight
Base Year Current Year
Food 30 47 4
Fuel 12 1
Clothing 14 18 3
House Rent 22 15 3
Miscellaneous 25 30 1
(B.Com. Madras,)
25. In the
(Ans. 123.91)
construction of a certain cost of living number the following group index
numbers were found. Calculate the cost of living index number by
weighted arithmetic mean and (ii) the weighted geometric mean. using () the
Group Index Number Weights
1. Food 350
2. Fuel and lighting 200 1
3. Clothing 240 1
4. House rent 160 1
5. Miscellaneous 250 2
542 tatistics
(S. Com. Bombay,)
(Ans. (1) Po1= 285, (2) Poj= 275.4)
26. From the chain base index numbers given below prepare tixed base index numbes
and verify the answer :
48 10 8 12 15
Weight
(LC. WA.)
(Ans. 276.4)
28. The price quotations of 5 ifferent commoities for the years 198S and 1990 are
as follows :
Price in Rs.
Commodity Weight 1985 1990
!
A 4 2.50 4.00
B 8 2.80 3.20
C 6 3.20 4.00
D 2 3.00 4.50
1.00 1.70
Calculate the price index number for the year 1990 with 1985 as the base year,
using :
) Simple average of price relative, and
(B. Com.
(ii) Weighted average gf price relatives.
Poone,)
(Ans. (1) 153, (2) 160.8)
29. Compute Chain Index Numbers from the ink relatives given below :
Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Commodity: A B C D E F
D 18 units 40 60
E 10 units 20 28
Commodities A B C D E F
25 50 8.62 24.6 1s
Price in 1985 (Rs.) 40