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Test Bank for An Introduction to Management Science:
Quantitative Approach, 15th Edition, David R. Anderson,
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction.
12. Simulation.
13. Decision Analysis.
15. Forecasting.
Description
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and meeting the air, that our supposed objection does not apply to
the case.
Stating facts will, however, be the best way of settling this question;
and for this purpose the experience of our aeronauts is referred to.
Much as they have sometimes been inconvenienced from the rarity
of the air, at the heights to which they have ascended, yet have we
never heard them complain of being unable to breathe freely, owing
to the velocity with which they were carried along over the earth’s
surface, notwithstanding that they have been conveyed at rates of
70, 80, and, in one instance, 160 miles an hour. And why? because
that which was the cause of motion went with them.—“I had not,”
says Lunardi, in his account of the first ascent ever made in England,
“the slightest sense of motion from the machine. I knew not
whether I went swiftly or slowly—whether it ascended or descended
—whether it was agitated or tranquil, but by the appearance or
disappearance of objects on the earth.” Rapidly, therefore, as they
have moved, yet have they felt as if in a calm. Now exactly similar
in point of respiration, would be the feeling of those who might be
conveyed in the proposed tunnel. The air, being the cause of
motion, must go, at least, equally fast as it drove them, and
necessarily be wherever they were. Let the rate of motion therefore,
be what it might, the feeling of those who experienced it, must
prove that of being in a perfect calm.
Nor are the objections we at first conceive, relative to the effect
which pumping air from the tunnel, and producing what only the
word vacuum (inapplicable as it is) will enable us to convey the idea
of, at all more tenable. The degree to which air would be exhausted
from the tunnel might scarcely ever be sufficient to sink a barometer
two inches lower than one exposed to the atmosphere stood at; so
that even were we exposed to it no inconvenience would be felt. [69]
But we never shall be exposed to it, any more than those who
witness the cruel experiment of putting a mouse under the receiver
of an air-pump, and then exhausting it, are exposed to what the
little animal suffers. Between those who see and the poor creature
which feels the effect of the apparatus, is the side of the receiver.
And between the part of the tunnel in which the exhaustion, or
rather the difference of density is, and the passengers in the vehicle,
would be the end of the vehicle; so that though close to them would
be an atmosphere rarer than (we will suppose) it might prove
pleasant to be in, yet would the atmosphere they actually were in be
the same as that of the air at large. No inconvenience, therefore,
can be experienced in this particular.
Equally untenable is the idea we take up, that it will be impossible so
to adapt the ends of the vehicles to the inside of the tunnel, as to
cause them to act as pistons in preventing the passage of the air by
them, without occasioning friction to a degree which should deprive
us of all the advantages the air would otherwise give, as a mean of
communicating motion.
In the last carriage which I had for the tunnel I constructed at
Brighton, there was a space of above an inch and a half in width left
all round between the piston part of the carriage and the tunnel,
through which air rushed unimpeded. Yet did not this “windage,” or
leak, though equal in the aggregate, to an aperture of three square
feet, prevent the carriage from springing forward to the impulse of
the air-pumps, with a readiness I was surprised at. Nor did it ever
cause the least perceptible diminution in their effect; owing to the
small quantity of air that passed through it, in comparison with the
immense quantity exhausted by the pumps.
When the Brighton Committee rode in that tunnel, one of them
brought with him a mountain barometer, that he might ascertain the
degree of “vacuum” or exhaustion necessary to move the carriage.
This barometer was accordingly suspended in the part where the
“vacuum” was to be produced, and the vernier adjusted with the
greatest accuracy. But to his surprise the degree of exhaustion was
not sufficient to lower the barometer in the least degree. Being
aware of this, I had spirit gauges previously prepared, one of which
was fixed in the end of the carriage. But even this gauge, though
nearly fifteen times more sensitive than the barometer, was affected
hardly enough to be visible, the amount of “vacuum” indicated by it,
being only about ten grains per square inch, or less than the ten-
thousandth part of a vacuum.
Nor would the quantity of air that rushed by the piston-end of the
carriage be at all important, even when travelling at very great
velocities, and with heavy loads. In a tunnel of the diameter which
would be proper for such lines as those to Bristol, or South Wales,
the pressure requisite to move a load of 100 tons would not be more
than about 100 grains per square inch; which would cause air to
rush past the piston-end of the carriage at the rate of about 30 feet
per second. Therefore, even could no better adjustment of the
piston-end of the carriage and the inside of the tunnel be effected,
than took place with respect to that at Brighton, only 90 cubic feet
of air per second would rush past, even were the carriages standing
still; which is only one-tenth of what the air-pumps I used there
were capable of exhausting in the same time; while, on such a line
as the Bristol, or South Wales, it would not be one-hundredth of
what the exhausting apparatus would take out in the same period;
so that not one-hundredth of the power would be lost by it: and
even this hundredth could easily be reduced to a thousandth: the
space left between the piston-end of the carriage in the tunnel at
Brighton being purposely an inch and a half in width, in order that I
might shew, by actual proof, how utterly unimportant was that
objection which engineers of the highest name and reputation had
assured me must, inevitably, prove fatal to the motion of any
carriage in any tunnel.
And as the carriage, instead of standing still, would be moving
forward, the loss of power, which would, otherwise, result from the
pressure requisite to give the velocity as well as move the load,
would be equally unimportant as that arising from the pressure
requisite to move the load alone.
With pressures so trivial as these capable of producing practical
effects, and with it fully practicable so to adjust the “piston” part of
the carriages to the tunnel, as to render this “windage,” or leak,
perhaps less than one-hundredth of that which I purposely caused in
the tunnel at Brighton, there can be no difficulty, either in preventing
any important quantity of air from rushing past the carriages; or in
so connecting the “lengths” of which the tunnel would be composed,
as to render the joints air-tight.
And as there are no objections which the engineers can bring
forward, that cannot be replied to in an equally satisfactory manner,
I need not trouble you with any additional answer to them.
It is now four years ago since the locomotive engine competition
took place on the Liverpool and Manchester Railway. In all
probability no proprietor of the Kensington Canal happened to be
present at that contest; yet is it equally probable that all were as
fully convinced of the fact from the accounts which appeared in the
newspapers, as if you had seen it. Now though I cannot give the
conviction arising from the evidence of your senses, yet can I give
stronger evidence than the public vehicles of intelligence gave as to
that competition, by referring you to the public authorities and
records of Brighton, to know whether I did not carry an appointed
number of its inhabitants to and fro, as the locomotive engines went
during that competition; “when,” says Mr. Treasurer Booth, in his
“Account of the Liverpool and Manchester Railway,”—“the prescribed
distance, it should be understood, was, owing to the circumstances
of the railway, obliged to be accomplished, by moving backwards
and forward on a level plane of one mile and three quarters in
length.” I did not, it is true, carry those gentlemen so far as those
engines went. Nor, indeed, was there any occasion for it. Had it
been necessary, they could have continued riding to and fro in my
tunnel, as long as the locomotives ran to and fro on the railway.
But, as when they had satisfied themselves that there was no
trickery in the motion of the carriage, and that it was really moved
by the air, they had, then, seen all that it was necessary to see, to
convince them that a longer tunnel would enable me to move a
carriage equally far, as a longer railway would have admitted of the
locomotive engines going, they gave over riding, “because,” as the
Editor of the Brighton Herald says, in the extract which I have
quoted from that paper, “because they became so convinced that
the invisible and intangible medium we breathe, might be rendered a
safe and expeditious means of getting us from one place to another,
as to be tired of riding.”
Were it necessary for your interest that a gas-pipe should be laid
throughout the line you propose, your inquiry of the engineer you
might employ would be, not whether the gas would pass through
such a length of pipe, because you know that to have been long
established, and to be every day acted upon, but what would be the
expense of it; that is, it would be a money question, not a question
of practicability.
The tunnel I constructed at Brighton was nearly eight feet in
diameter, while the air-pumps I adapted to it were large enough to
make an artificial wind blow through it at the rate of ten miles an
hour. And doubling, tripling, quadrupling, &c. &c. the size, or
number of the pumps, would have doubled, tripled, &c. &c. the rate
at which this wind blew.
A common size for gas mains is eight inches. Were it propounded to
you—“Can a mouse run through a rat-hole, let that bole be as long
as it may?” your answer would not be dubious. Why, then, if it be
proved, that we can, with pneumatic apparatus of an almost
infinitely less efficient nature than that which I purpose using, make
air move through smaller pipes five, fifteen, or even fifty miles long,
[72]
should any doubt be entertained whether air-pumps will cause it
to move through one of eight feet in diameter; more particularly,
when it is well known, that the larger the pipe the less the
proportionate friction; and when your line will be little more than two
miles long.
The pressure by which the gas is driven through the pipes of the
work I know the most of, is equal to an ounce and a half per square
inch. A similar pressure on the carriage in my tunnel would have
moved above one hundred tons. The length of your line would be
only about eighty times longer than the tunnel I constructed; and as
the area of your tunnel would be nearly 150 times larger than the
eight-inch mains through which the gas is carried many times farther
than the length of your line, there need be no more question as to
whether, or not, the principle will act throughout your line, merely
because it is eighty times longer than my tunnel, than there is
whether gas would pass through eighty lengths of gas-pipe.
And as the joints which connect the different “lengths” of gas-pipes
can easily be made air-tight, so could the “lengths” and joints of the
tunnel. “Under the trivial degree of exhaustion which will be
necessary,” says the Report of the Russian Engineer Officer,
“rendering the tunnel sufficiently air-tight will be far less difficult
than is at first supposed. Indeed, I see so many different ways of
doing it,” continues the Report, “that I am satisfied it would not, in
practice, prove more difficult than, nor, indeed, so difficult as,
causing some canals I have seen, to retain the water let into them.”
Following up the illustration which this gentleman thus gives, I beg
to assure you I will guarantee that the tunnel shall not leak, or let air
improperly in, so much as I see the basin of your canal leaks water
out.
Adverse as were the original circumstances of the great father of
canal navigation in England, yet did he put to signal shame the
opposition and predictions of the engineers who proclaimed him a
madman for pretending that it was possible to carry a canal over a
navigable river. Ten thousand times more mad as the engineers of
the present day proclaim me, and a hundred thousand times more
absurd and “impossible” as they have pronounced my proposition to
be, yet, owing to having in my favour (what Brindsley had not in his)
the circumstance of my principle having been tried, I am enabled to
oppose to their ridicule and sneers the FACT that I have proved it on
a scale, which, as relates to size, was fully, and in every particular
practical; while it was less than practical in point of length, only
because no individual could do that which it requires a public
company and an act of parliament to do, that is, lay it down
between places for actual trade.
Short, however, as it was, yet was it many times longer than the
pipes through which gas was first carried, to prove the practicability
of lighting our streets with that illuminator: while its length was
great enough to be equally conclusive, as the movement of the first
steam-vessel built by the introducer of steam-navigation.
“When,” says Fulton, “I was building my first steam-boat at New
York, the project was viewed by the public either with indifference or
with contempt, as a visionary scheme. My friends, indeed, were
civil, but they were shy. They listened with patience to my
explanations; but with a settled cast of incredulity on their
countenances. I felt the full force of the lamentation of the poet:
“At length the day arrived when the experiment was to be put into
operation. To me it was a most trying and interesting occasion. I
invited many friends to go on board, to witness the first successful
trip. Many of them did me the favour to attend as a matter of
personal respect; but it was manifest that they did it with reluctance,
fearing to be the partners of my mortification, and not of my
triumph.
“The moment arrived in which the word was to be given for the
vessel to move. My friends were in groups on the deck. There was
anxiety, mixed with fear, among them. They were silent, and sad,
and weary. I read in their looks nothing but disaster; and almost
repented of my efforts. The signal was given; and the boat moved
on a short distance, and then stopped—and became immoveable.”
When my opponents can prove, that because Fulton’s first steam-
vessel would, on its first trial, move only the “short distance” stated
in the above quotation, it was, therefore, impossible to move any
other vessel farther by means of steam, I may heed the clamour
they raise about my proposition not being practicable through a long
line of tunnel.
Until then, I can consider it only as a proof of their knowledge being
on a par with the wisdom of that most learned opponent of Galileo’s
theory that day and night are occasioned by the revolution of our
planet on its axis, who, in answer to the query, “How then is it that
the sun gets back to, and always rises in the east of a morning?”
replied, that he went back by night, when nobody could see him.
In concluding, I will endeavour to guard against a circumstance that
may otherwise be injurious to me, by an observation. You will
perceive that the evidences which I have quoted have been in
existence six or seven years. How then, it may be inquired, is it,
that a method which is spoken of so highly as those evidences speak
of this mode of conveyance, should have remained seven years
without having been put into actual practice, or brought any nearer
to that consummation than it was when those documents were
written?
During the many years which elapsed between the period of
Columbus’s first proposing to Ferdinand and Isabella the discovery of
America, and their actually setting him afloat to do it, he sent his
brother Bartholomew to England, to lay the proposition before our
Seventh Henry, who, he expected, would entertain it. Henry did
entertain it; and would have possessed England of the southern
more firmly than she afterwards became possessed of the northern
half of America, but for the misfortune which prevented
Bartholomew Columbus from approaching him, till Isabella had
agreed with, and dispatched Columbus himself.
“In his voyage to England,” says the historian of America,
“Bartholomew Columbus had been so unfortunate as to fall into the
hands of pirates; who, having stripped him of every thing, detained
him a prisoner for several years:” reducing him to such poverty, that
when released from captivity, he could in no other way obtain the
means of procuring a dress fit for his appearance before the king,
than by employing himself in drawing maps.
Circumstances which, morally speaking, are exactly similar to this
captivity and imprisonment of Bartholomew Columbus—excepting
that they failed in compelling me to sign away the patent rights, to
wrest which from me they were instituted—have equally hindered
and reduced me: occasioning the destruction of the tunnel which I
constructed to demonstrate, practically, the truth of the proposition;
and depriving me of all means of proving it, except by carrying small
things on an experimental scale, instead of persons on a practical
one.
As relates to myself, I have no desire to obtrude the details of the
oppression and injustice practised upon me, on any one.
But with respect to the subject I advocate, I am most anxious that
the whole world should know that I court the fullest inquiry, and am
ready to answer every question.
As one proof of this, and to shew that there is nothing which I need
to blush for, any more than Bartholomew Columbus had cause to
blush for being imprisoned by the pirates, I beg to direct your
attention to the annexed copy of the Petition I presented to
Parliament; of which only an extract is given in page 19. Soliciting
the favour of your perusing it, I have the honour to be,
My Lords, and Gentlemen,
Your very obedient,
And most humble Servant,
JOHN VALLANCE.
APPENDIX.
MILES.
5 Level.
/9
5⅛ Fall, 1 in 1092; or 1 foot in about l-5th of a mile.
1½ Rise, 1 in 96; or 1 foot in 96 feet.
1⅞ Level.
1½ Fall, 1 in 96.
2½ Fall, 1 in 2640; or 1 foot in half a mile.
6½ Fall, 1 in 880; or 1 foot in 1-6th of a mile.
4½ Rise, 1 in 1200; or, 1 foot in about ¼ of a mile.
4½ Level.
Now as it appears from this, that, with the exception of the mile and
half which rises at the rate of 1 in 96 (up from l-6th to l-3rd of which
their momentum carries them) the part of the Liverpool and
Manchester Railway over which the locomotive engines work, has no
rise that is half so sharp as the 1 in 340, nor any which is near so
sharp as the 1 in 528, adverted to on the Bristol line, it surpasses my
comprehension to conceive what there can possibly be to “render
the locomotive engines much more effective, and subject them to
less wear and tear than they are on the Liverpool and Manchester
Railway”; while I am beyond measure surprised, that the confidence
of gentlemen could be so misled, as to expose them to a refutation
so palpable, as the statement they have thus been betrayed into
admits of.
£ s. d.
Bridge account 99,065 11 9
Fencing 10,202 16 5
Chat Moss account 27,719 11 10
Cuttings and Embankments 199,763 8 0
Formation of Road 20,568 15 5
Land account 95,305 8 8
£452,625 12 1
And this, exclusive both of the 300,000l. (nearly) which has been
expended since, and of the 130,000l. which is the estimated
expense of the tunnel now in course of construction.
[53a] “Railway Accident.—We are sorry to have to mention a
very serious accident, which occurred on Saturday, on the
railway between Kenyon and Bolton. The locomotive engine
was going up the lower inclined plane, with a heavy load of
goods, and at the turn-off at Colonel Fletcher’s colleries, ran off
the road, and was unfortunately overturned against a bank, and
fell upon the engineer and fireman, who were killed on the
spot. Two other men were riding on the tender, one of whom
was dangerously hurt, the other scalded. This engine, we
understand, was the only one which was ever worked on a
railway with wheels of six feet diameter; and, on that account,
had never been allowed to take the coaches.”—Times, 26th
July, 1831.
“On Wednesday morning, the engine drawing the first-class
train of carriages from Manchester to Liverpool, on the railway,
had the misfortune to break an axle-tree, when at full speed,
near Chat Moss; which, after ploughing the ground for some
time, went off the rails, and drew the whole train over the
embankment, [53b] when, most providentially, out of two
hundred passengers, not a life was lost, or a limb broken.
Several persons were bruised, and some seriously.”—Morning
Herald, 9th December, 1831.
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