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The document outlines ideal seasonal tendencies for various currency pairs, highlighting specific periods when price movements are expected. For instance, AUD and NZD typically rally from March to May, while EUR sees a summer rally from June to July. The analysis emphasizes the importance of confirming these trends with movements in the USDX, suggesting trading strategies based on these seasonal patterns.

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crony2004
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2 views

12

The document outlines ideal seasonal tendencies for various currency pairs, highlighting specific periods when price movements are expected. For instance, AUD and NZD typically rally from March to May, while EUR sees a summer rally from June to July. The analysis emphasizes the importance of confirming these trends with movements in the USDX, suggesting trading strategies based on these seasonal patterns.

Uploaded by

crony2004
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Ideal Seasonal Tendencies

We are looking for the most obvious and diametrically opposed price swings.

💎High probability, Ideal Seasonal Tendency is when the underlying market


is predisposed to go in that direction.

And also when you have USDX confirm it.

They won’t play out every year, but that’s okay because there’s plenty ST
across all pairs. Every year there is something, somewhere.

AUS-USD

Ideal Seasonal Tendencies 1


The strongest Seasonal Tendency for AUD is to start a Rally in March and make a
top somewhere in May. This should be seen with a sell off in USDX to confirm
that. No we have high probability ST!
We pair the Strength of AUD with Weakness in USDX. We will be buying AUD and
selling USD.

NZD-USD

Similar seasonal rally from March lows to May highs. This is also confirmed by
the decline in USDX.

For long-term analysis we focus only on the most obvious moves.

EUR-USD

Ideal Seasonal Tendencies 2


There is a Seasonal Low that forms between June - July. This starts the Summer
rally in EUR. This is confirmed by the decline in USDX during June - July.

GBP-USD

Strongest Seasonal Tendency from GBP is to make a Low in March - April and
rally into May.
These seasonal tendencies have being here in the last 15y and also the last 40y.
So there is definitely something going there, right?

USD - CHF

We have Seasonal Tendency for USD to make a High in June - July.


In the same time we have a summer low forming on CHF. High probability.

Ideal Seasonal Tendencies 3


If the current market conditions are bullish this is a good time buy Swiss Franc and
Sell USD.

USD - JPY

Strong Seasonality from USDX to make a High during March - April with a Low in
May. The same time we have a Long Term Low forming in Yen
during March - April .

If Dollar is in down trend this is a good time to look for this Seasonal Tendency
to go short.

If Japanese Yen has a rally during this time of year, this is a selling opportunity on
this pair.

USD - CAD

Ideal Seasonal Tendencies 4


We have the Seasonal high in the Spring for USDX and we pair that with the
Seasonal Low formed in the same time and a Seasonal High in May.

Summary
Generally we look for a Seasonal High to form in USDX during March and April.
For that to occur the Dollar Index has to be in a bearish environment. If we are
bearish on USDX, this is a good time to short.

If there is a Bullish Seasonal Tendency playing out in other Currency, then we


can use that strength and even if the USDX is in consolidation. You only need
one of the 2 to confirm.

Ideal Seasonal Tendencies 5

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