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PALGRAVE STUDIES IN
POLITICAL MARKETING AND MANAGEMENT
SERIES EDITOR: JENNIFER LEES-MARSHMENT

Political Marketing
Alchemy
The State of Opinion Research
André Turcotte
Palgrave Studies in Political Marketing
and Management

Series Editor
Jennifer Lees-Marshment
Faculty of Arts, Political Studies
University of Auckland
Auckland, New Zealand
Palgrave Studies in Political Marketing and Management (PalPMM)
series publishes high quality and ground-breaking academic research on
this growing area of government and political behaviour that attracts
increasing attention from scholarship, teachers, the media and the public.
It covers political marketing intelligence including polling, focus groups,
role play, co-creation, segmentation, voter profiling, stakeholder insight;
the political consumer; political management including crisis manage-
ment, change management, issues management, reputation management,
delivery management; political advising; political strategy such as posi-
tioning, targeting, market-orientation, political branding; political lead-
ership in all its many different forms and arena; political organiza-
tion including managing a political office, political HR, internal party
marketing; political communication management such as public relations
and e-marketing and ethics of political marketing and management.
For more information email the series editor Jennifer Lees-Marshment
on [email protected] and see https://leesmarshment.
wordpress.com/pmm-book-series/.

More information about this series at

http://www.palgrave.com/gp/series/14601
 André Turcotte

Political Marketing
Alchemy
The State of Opinion Research
André Turcotte
Carleton University
Ottawa, ON, Canada

Palgrave Studies in Political Marketing and Management

ISBN 978-3-030-53712-8 ISBN 978-3-030-53713-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53713-5

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2021

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
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 Introductory Preface

The day I began working on this book, I was asked to provide some advice
on the validity and methodological rigour of a media poll recently released
about an upcoming Mayoralty race in Toronto, Canada. The media release
opened with the following paragraph:

In the most comprehensive public poll done to date, 15,576 Torontonians

through a random sample representing all 44 wards, answered a telephone
poll between November 14 – November 28, 2017. When asked, if the elec-
tion was held today who they would vote for Mayor, 38.66% of respondents
support John Tory, compared to 32.91% for Doug Ford, 28.43% of voters are
still undecided. The margin of error is +/− 4.1 percent, 19 times out of 20.

This statement caught my attention for several reasons. First, a telephone

survey with a random sample of 15,576 Torontonians would not only
be “the most comprehensive public poll to date” but also a very expen-
sive study. Polls conducted for the media are typically done as cheaply as
possible since the polling firm usually cover the costs of the data collec-
tion and use the results as a promotional tool (Hoy 1989: 209–210,
Micheau 2018: 188). As Louis Harris once mentioned, “media polls are
the glamour girl of social research” (Micheau 2018: 192). In an interview
after the release of the poll, the CEO of the polling firm noted that the
poll was unusually large and “was paid for and conducted by the fledgling
polling firm, she said, to promote the company, which describes itself as a

v
vi INTRODUCTORY PREFACE

market research and technology firm specializing in advanced telecommu-

nications solutions and big data analytics.”1 Upon further investigation,
it turned out that the poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Response
(IVR) and was not what we usually describe as a telephone survey.
Second, I noticed the results were stated within two decimal points and
no polling firm ever state their results with such a degree of accuracy. This
reminded me of a warning by Michael Wheeler in Lies. Damn Lies. and
Statistics telling us to “beware of any poll which reports percentages down
to decimal points…The decimal points should raise a red flag warning that
the entire poll is suspect” (1976: 286). Third, how come the firm seemed
unable to calculate the margin of error correctly? A sample size of 15,576
respondents would yield a margin of error of +/− 0.7% points not 4.1%. I
was also puzzled that the principals at the firm seemed to confuse percent
and percentage points; an honest mistake for the general public but a
cardinal sin for a pollster. My curiosity piqued I continued reading and
came across even stranger statements.
In the same press release, it was stated that “certainty requires scale.”
The statement went on to explain that:

Conventional polls with small sample sizes often fail to deliver insights and
routinely under-represent significant segments of the electorate. Greater scale
equals better decisions with a top-level view to forecast trends early and accu-
rately. The only way to reduce the statistical margin of error on a poll
is to increase the sample size. The validity of our polls has a significantly
smaller statistical margin of error and this gives you greater confidence when
predicting large scale political events.

Anyone with an introductory course in statistics knows that this is not

really the case. Anyone with some knowledge of the history of polling
also knows this is not true. The infamous Literary Digest Poll in the 1936
U.S. Presidential election had a sample size of over two million Ameri-
cans and was unable to predict Roosevelt’s victory over Alf Landon. The
19.6 percentage point error in prediction remains the largest such error
ever recorded (Lachapelle 1991: 2–3). A poorly drawn sample, regardless

1 http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/in-the-world-of-political-polling-is-big
ger-better (Accessed February 19th, 2018).
 INTRODUCTORY PREFACE vii

of size, would yield invalid results. And yet, despite all the questionable
aspects of this mayoralty poll, it was released.2
A few weeks later, another puzzling incident occurred. On the same
day, I came across two separate polls predicting seemingly opposite
outcomes in an upcoming election in Prince Edward Island, Canada. In
one poll, conducted by MQO Research, Liberal support stood at 37%,
slightly ahead of the PC Party (29%) and Green Party (28%). Another poll,
this one conducted by Mainstreet Research, had the Green Party support
at 36%, well ahead of the PCs (30%) and Liberals (29%). In such situa-
tions, polling firms are quick to note that fielding dates and methodolo-
gies are different—the MQO poll was conducted between January 15th–
20th, 2018 by telephone while the Mainstreet Poll was done between
January 3rd and 4th, 2018 using Interactive Voice Recording. Never-
theless, it defied common sense that the Green Party dropped from first
to third within two weeks. But since the actual provincial election was
more than a year away, it was assumed that no one would remember and
the polling firms would not be held accountable. As Hoy noted; “One
intriguing aspect of polls, or at least of the reporting of them, is that jour-
nalists tend to ignore precedents. It doesn’t seem to matter whether a
pollster’s previous work was good or bad” (1989: 42).
Unexplainable discrepancies with polling results are not a situation
unique to Canada. Over the last few years, market intelligence special-
ists have failed to accurately predict the Brexit vote in the U.K. as well
as the subsequent U.K. General Election, the Scottish Referendum, and
several aspects of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election such as Bernie
Sanders’ win over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Michigan primary, the
actual Trump upset victory as well as recent controversies in the 2019
Australian election. All is not well in the world of market intelligence.
Polls are increasingly deemed inaccurate at best, manipulative at worst.
Nevertheless, corporations, the media, interest groups and politicians
continue to rely heavily on them for guidance and strategic insights. The
aim of this book is to examine the current state of the practice of market
intelligence and how changes within its different contributing streams—
media polling, commercial public opinion research and political polling—
are pushing market intelligence into a new area of development. The

2 http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/in-the-world-of-political-polling-is-big
ger-better (Accessed February 19th, 2018).
viii INTRODUCTORY PREFACE

project suggests that we are moving to a phase when the practice of

market intelligence will be more akin to market surveillance.
The starting premise of the analysis is that “Polls don’t lie” but they
do have a purpose. The project separates polls (or market intelligence
research more broadly) into three categories; media polls, commercial
public opinion research and political polling. In doing so, it becomes
clear that all polls are not created equal; have different strengths as well as
weaknesses but more importantly, they have different applications. Under-
standing their specific purpose sheds a different light on their role and
how they perform their function. This book aims to provide insights
to both academics and practitioners. Specifically, it aims to address five
specific dimensions:

1. While public opinion research is an oft-talked about topic, there is

a dearth of publications looking at how public opinion research is
actually conducted.
2. Most previous works on public opinion research have been published
before the contribution made by the political marketing literature
which redefined public opinion research as market intelligence. The
field is in need of an update taking this shift into consideration.
3. Moreover, works on public opinion research are typically aimed at
either an academic audience or at disparate groups of practitioners
such as journalists, market researchers or political pollsters. This
book makes the argument that it is preferable to examine public
opinion research as a coherent whole with definite approaches,
functions, track records and applications. The book will be a one-
stop destination for understanding the practice of public opinion
research.
4. Looking at public opinion research from three perspectives: media
polls, commercial public opinion research and political polling is a
novel approach that should yield a better comprehension of public
opinion research and increase overall literacy on the topic.
5. The book concludes with a look at the latest innovations in public
opinion research and how the rise of Data Management Platforms
and Branded On-line Communities are about to change how public
opinion research is conducted. This conclusion will introduce the
audience to those developments and bring it up to date.
 INTRODUCTORY PREFACE ix

This book is building on the strengths of an extensive academic litera-

ture combined with a commitment to focus on applied insights. In many
ways, this book reflects my own personal crossing over the last three
decades. While my main focus has always been academia, I have been
extremely fortunate to stumble into many practical realities that have
honed by comprehension of the field of political marketing and opinion
research. As a Ph.D. candidate, I was given the opportunity to be the co-
editor of the prestigious Gallup Report in Canada and this provided me
with the chance to understand media polling. Then, I became involved in
political campaigns at all levels of government in Canada and in so doing,
acquired an understanding of political polling. More recently, I have been
a consultant for several commercial firms as well as acting as the head
of audience research for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC).
More than anything, this book aims to share what I have learned over this
very interesting journey.

Ottawa, Canada André Turcotte

References
Hoy, Claire. 1989. Margin of Error. Toronto: Key Porter Books.
Lachapelle, Guy. 1991. Les sondages et les medias lors des élections au Canada.
Montréal: Wilson & Lafleur.
Micheau, Frédéric. 2018. La prophétie électorale. Paris: Les éditions du cerf.
Wheeler, Michael. 1976. Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics. New York: W. W. Norton
& Company.
 Contents

1 How We Got Here 1

2 Media Polls: The Gallup Legacy 21

3 Commercial Opinion Research: Show Me the Money 57

4 Market Intelligence: Glamor and Grief 73

5 “Where Are We Going?” From Market Intelligence

to Market Surveillance 91

xi
 CHAPTER 1

How We Got Here

Abstract This chapter traces the evolution of the practice of measuring

public opinion. It establishes its origins in 1824 and brings the historical
evolution to the current period described as the market intelligence era.
Some specific points are also addressed in this chapter to lay the ground-
work for the rest of the book. Specifically, attempts at quantifying public
opinion and the implications of doing so are discussed. Also of impor-
tance is a look at the terminology used in the field and the need for a
common understanding. The chapter concludes with a review of the basic
methodological challenges facing market intelligence.

Keywords Straw poll · Scientific polling · Public opinion ·

Non-attitudes · Sampling · Questionnaire design

In my third year in undergrad studies, I picked up Walter Lippmann’s

Public Opinion (1922) and read this opening paragraph:
“There is an island in the ocean where in 1914 a few Englishmen,
Frenchmen, and Germans lived. No cable reaches that island, and the
British mail steamer comes but once in sixty days. In September it had not yet
come, and the islanders were still talking about the latest newspaper which
told about the approaching trial of Madame Caillaux for the shooting of
Gaston Calmette. It was, therefore, with more than usual eagerness that the

© The Author(s) 2021 1

A. Turcotte, Political Marketing Alchemy, Palgrave Studies
in Political Marketing and Management,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53713-5_1
2 A. TURCOTTE

whole colony assembled at the quay on a day in mid-September to hear from

the captain what the verdict had been. They learned that for over six weeks
now those of them who were English and those who were French had been
fighting in behalf of the sanctity of treaties against those of them who were
Germans.”
I was hooked on studying public opinion…
It presumably began back in 1824 and it was an ominous begin-
ning. That year, the Niles Weekly Register, a newspaper from Baltimore,
published the results of a straw poll about a local election (Micheau
2018: 22). The name “straw poll” was inspired by the farmers’ practice to
throw straw into the air to determine where the wind blew. Maybe that
first published straw poll was inspired by the series of ad hoc attempts
throughout the country to try to predict the vote. Around that time,
people began to notice counts at meetings and tallies from “poll book”
left at taverns and other public places attempting to predict presiden-
tial leanings (Bardes and Oldendick 2017: 17–18). Then, during the
1824 US Presidential election campaign, the Harrisburg Pennsylvanian
published a poll which wrongly predicted that Andrew Jackson would
beat John Quincy Adams (Hoy 1989: 12). Not a great start.
During the presidential elections of 1908 and 1912, the New York
Herald teamed up with the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Chicago Record-
Herald, the St. Louis Republic, the Boston Globe and the Los Angeles Times
to seemingly make erroneous predictions about who would win the Pres-
idency (ibid.: 12). In the 1923 Chicago mayoralty election, the Chicago
Tribune tabulated more than 85,000 ballots and released vote preferences
by ethnic groups, “streetcar drivers,” moviegoers, and other such small
groups despite the lack of application of the most basic sample theory
(Frankovic 2012: 114). By the 1928 Presidential election, more than 85
straw polls were published (Micheau 2018: 23) with mixed success. Then
came the Literary Digest Poll in the 1936 US Presidential election. The
Digest failed to predict Roosevelt’s victory over Alf Landon and the 19.6
percentage point error in the prediction remains the largest such error
ever recorded (Lachapelle 1991: 2–3). The Literary Digest folded less
than a year later and many would have predicted that the practice of
measuring public opinion would soon follow suit. But on the contrary,
public opinion polling survived its rough start to emerge as an influential
part of the political, business, and social landscape.
In this chapter, I aim to explore four key background areas pertinent to
the rest of this book. First, the chapter presents a brief history of polling.
 1 HOW WE GOT HERE 3

This history is by no means exhaustive but identifies a few important

signposts. Of particular importance is the discussion of the evolution of
polling from its inception to its latest transformation into what we now
refer to as market intelligence. This exercise helps contextualize the anal-
ysis. I return to more specific historical developments in other chapters to
focus on moments which defined the specific strands of opinion research.
In particular, I explore the rarely discussed history of commercial opinion
research in the third chapter and some recent development in the fourth
chapter. But this initial overview provides the overall, relevant context
and evolution. Furthermore, this history aims to be less US-centric than
the literature tends to be. While there is no denying the importance
of American pollsters in establishing and developing this industry, other
countries—notably France, the United Kingdom, and Canada—have also
made important contributions that are too often overlooked.
Second, a short but much needed discussion about terminology will
follow and aim to clarify the way we talk about this topic. Polls, surveys,
public opinion research, market intelligence, and polling are too often
used interchangeably and this leads to confusion. I define and explain
the terms in order to bring some clarity to this discussion. Third, the
link between polls and public opinion is reviewed. It is important to be
reminded from time to time that a definition of public opinion goes
beyond the quantification we are taking for granted. In short, public
opinion is more than a sum of individual opinions and this point will be
discussed in this chapter. Fourth, some important methodological chal-
lenges are reviewed. The goal is not to present a highly technical review
of the way polls are conducted. However, if one wants to understand the
functions of polling, one must have a basic comprehension of issues such
as:

A. Non-attitudes
B. Wording and Context of Questions
C. Data Collection
D. Sampling.
4 A. TURCOTTE

A Short History of Polling

Manifestations of public opinion research are ubiquitous today. The
content we are served when we access our personal social media plat-
forms; the recommendations we get from Netflix, Google, or Amazon;
the issues that dominate the political discourse and those that are ignored;
the design and execution of communication or corporate campaigns; who
runs for political office and who does not are a few examples of how much
we rely on this practice. The fascination we have with polling is tied to our
essential need to know what others think. Whether it is a politician whose
reelection depends on understanding vote intent; a business person whose
livelihood rests on offering products or services which will meet the needs
of customers; or a social activist needing to mobilize people to a cause,
success, or failure relies on a comprehension of what matters to people
and how they make up their minds. How we got here is the culmination
of a historical process dating back centuries.
The general concept of public opinion was addressed in the works of
Plato and Aristotle as well as subsequently by the Romans (Bardes and
Oldendick 2017: 3). However, Jean-Jacques Rousseau was the first to use
it in the modern sense in 1744 (Bardes and Oldendick 2017: 3; Erikson
and Tedin 2016: 1). For him, public opinion evoked the “customs and
manners of all members of society as opposed to some elite” (Erikson
and Tedin 2016: 1). As years passed, the idea emerged from the Enlight-
enment that there was a mass public able to exercise its sovereignty and
this was key in shaping the role of the public in democratic societies.
(Bardes and Oldendick 2017: 3). Simultaneously, efforts were made to
move beyond simply discussing public opinion to trying to measure it.
We can find several early attempts by governments around the world
to gauge the public’s views on issues. As far back as 1745, the controller
general in France undertook a study to gather socio-demographic and
economic data in order to examine general attitudes toward a planned
increase in land taxes (Blondiaux 1998: 52). About twenty years later,
the French minister of the interior Jacques Necker instructed regional
commissioners to administer questionnaires to collect information about
l’esprit public (the public mood) of the nation (Turcotte 2010: 200).
The results of this study were published in the Compte rendu sur l’état
général des finances de la France (Blondiaux 1998: 39) and by 1802,
the French government was systematically measuring the mood of the
French public (ibid.: 53–54). Such efforts were not restricted to France.
 1 HOW WE GOT HERE 5

Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann traces the origins of polling in Germany to

social inquiries of the nineteenth and early twentieth century. Exam-
ples of such studies include a study sent to 15,000 landowners about
the State and the Farm Worker in 1874–1875; “The State of Factory
Workers and Apprentices” comprised of questionnaires sent to 7000
factory proprietors, workers, and apprentices in 1875; and “The Morale
in the Countryside” which questioned 14,000 Protestants pastors in 1895
(Worcester 1983: 44). In England, Charles Booth, among others, devel-
oped methods for collecting and analyzing data that became known as
the “English Social Survey” in the early 1800s while in 1915, the US
Department of Agriculture began conducting surveys on the quality of
life in rural America (Bardes and Oldendick 2017: 19). All those disparate
attempts to measure public opinion—as well as the straw polls mentioned
at the opening of this chapter—were valiant efforts but lacked in the rigor
that would come to define public opinion research.
The road to scientific public opinion measurement proved tortuous.
While early attempts to measure public opinion produced questionable
results, “intellectual advancements in statistics and the science of sampling
were laying the foundations to the emergence of scientific polling indus-
try” (Turcotte 2010: 206). The roots of scientific polling are found in
the debates held at the International Institute of Statistics between 1895
and 1903. The Norwegian statistician A. N. Kiaer first failed to convince
the Institute of the validity of his method of representative sampling,
and this on three separate occasions in 1895, 1897, and 1901. In fact,
after his first attempt, opponents of this new approach “warned that
this was a dangerous doctrine and argued that a sample could never
replace full coverage” (Converse 2009: 41). Finally in 1903, he was
more successful and the Institute accepted his methodological assertions
(Lachapelle 1991: 4). Around the same time, a statistician-economist
at the London School of Economics, Arthur L. Bowley, made robust
demonstrations of the validity of representative sampling solidly anchored
in probability theory and the central limit theorem (Converse 2009:
42). Another important development occurred in 1925 when the Danish
statistician Adolph Jensen presented—to the same Institute—his findings
about what would become known as quota sampling (Blondiaux 1998:
171). Finally, R. A. Fisher introduced the principle of randomization
(Converse 2009: 44) which became central to the practice of polling.
6 A. TURCOTTE

The details about how sampling entered the political realm and
created a new industry are generally well-known. An unknown Univer-
sity professor named George Gallup used his doctoral thesis on sampling
techniques to help his mother-in-law become the first woman to hold the
position of secretary of state in Iowa in 1932. Three years later, Gallup,
as well as Archibald Crossley and Elmo Roper began conducting polls on
a regular basis. Despite Gallup’s subsequent notoriety, it was Elmo Roper
who was the first of the media pollsters. In July 1935, he released the
findings of a study comprised of 3000 American adults about their atti-
tudes toward a range of current affairs issues in Fortune magazine. Roper
would repeat this exercise on a quarterly basis and discuss his findings
under the rubric entitled “The Fortune Survey” (Blondiaux 1998: 158).
A few months later, in October 1935, George Gallup started releasing
his own poll results in over sixty subscribing American newspapers in
a weekly column entitled “America Speaks ” (ibid.). Archibald Crossley
followed suit and developed a regular poll entitled “The Crossley Political
Poll ” for the newspapers part of the Hearst Corporation (Micheau 2018:
29). The first big test of this new way of measuring public opinion came
during the 1936 US Presidential election. Gallup publicly challenged the
venerable Literary Digest and predicted that the Digest would be unable
to accurately predict the outcome of the Presidential election because of
inherent flaws in its methodology. As it turned out, Gallup’s own predic-
tion in that election was off by 7 percentage points (Warren 2001: 87),
but unlike The Digest, he correctly predicted Roosevelt’s victory and with
that, the polling industry was born.
While Roper may have been first, Gallup quickly became the most
prominent of the early pollsters and almost singlehandedly expanded
polling internationally. Within five years, Gallup opened affiliates in Great
Britain (1937), France (1938), and Australia (1941) (Micheau 2018: 29).
In 1941, he expanded north of the border where his Canadian Institute
of Public Opinion (CIPO) became the second polling firm in Canada;
preceded by Canadian Facts established in 1932 (Turcotte 2010: 207).
Shortly after World War II, Gallup opened affiliates in Italy (Micheau
2018: 134) and in the Netherlands (170). Polling activities—unrelated to
the efforts by Gallup—began in Japan (1940) and Spain (1942) but shut
down during WWII. In 1948, polling extended to the TV airwaves when
CBS broadcasted “The 15-minute America Speaks – The George Gallup
Show” (Frankovic 2012: 115). Elmo Roper gave weekly Sunday radio
 1 HOW WE GOT HERE 7

talks and got his own half-hour TV show entitled “Presidential Straws in
the Wind” (ibid.).
Gallup’s influence expanded beyond setting up business affiliates and
becoming a media personality. He trained and recruited people who
played an important role in the intellectual development of the profession.
For instance, in France, survey research was developed by two main prac-
titioners: Alfred Max and Jean Stoetzel. Max was a journalist by training
and set up the Centre d’étude de l’opinion publique (CEOP) in 1939 with
the support of George Gallup and the mentorship of André Siegfried,
professor at the famed Collège de France. Jean Stoetzel was a professor
who met Gallup while at Columbia University. Upon his return to France
in 1938, he set up l’Institut Français d’opinion publique (IFOP) which
developed a more academic reputation than CEOP (Micheau 2018: 38).
Stoetzel became influential in the field of public opinion research and was
the first president of the World Association of Public Opinion Research
(WAPOR) founded in 1947. In Canada, Gallup developed a close rela-
tionship with Saul Rae, a prominent government official in the Mackenzie
King government. Gallup and Rae cowrote one of the first books on
polling research The Pulse of Democracy in 1940. British researchers
Henry Durant was another early Gallup collaborator who played a promi-
nent role in public opinion research. While studying in the United States
in the late 1930s, the influential scholar and founder of the Allensbach
Institute in Germany, Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann “discovered the work of
George Gallup and made opinion research the topic of her dissertation”
(Holtz-Bacha and Stromback 2012: 96).
Polling was first met with a combination of curiosity and ambiva-
lence and its track record varied from astonishing precision to spectacular
debacles. The industry was barely in its second decade when it faced its
first fiasco. The three original pollsters—Roper, Gallup, and Crossley—
wrongly predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman
for the US Presidency. More importantly, they missed with stunning
inaccuracy; the Roper Poll missed the Truman victory margin by 12.4
percentage points; Gallup by 5.3 points; and Crossley by 4.7 points
(Warren 2001: 91). Wilfred Funk, the former editor of The Literary
Digest, could not help commenting about the irony of the situation (92).
Despite this setback, the industry leaders soldiered on and a series of
events cemented the reputation of the practice of polling. In Chapter 4, I
examine in detail how opinion research emerged largely unscathed from
the 1948 debacle and how this impacted the development of political
8 A. TURCOTTE

polling and market intelligence. However, successes around the world also
contributed to saving the profession.
In 1945, British Gallup raised some eyebrows when it predicted—
correctly—the unexpected electoral defeat of Winston Churchill (Micheau
2018: 51; Worcester 1991: 5). In 1961, Theodore H. White glowingly
described the role of Lou Harris as JFK’s pollster in his bestseller The
Making of the President 1960 (1961) and gave him some of the credit for
Kennedy’s close victory. As Wheeler later suggested: “Kennedy’s victory
guaranteed fame and success for the president’s pollster: having suppos-
edly masterminded a presidential campaign, Harris became the number
one political pollster” (1976: 64). In 1965, IFOP established its repu-
tation when it predicted that De Gaulle would not win the French
Presidency on the first ballot (Micheau 2018: 51). And finally, the polling
performance in the 1972 US Presidential election was seen as the coming
of age of the industry; “Richard Nixon’s 61 to 38 percent victory over
George McGovern (1 percent went to other candidates) coincided almost
exactly with the final surveys of the two best-known pollsters; George
Gallup and Lou Harris reported margins of 62 to 38 and 61 to 39
respectively in their election-eve polls” (Wheeler 1976: 30).
Public opinion polling flourished for the next several decades. The
industry grew in size and influence and the best practitioners became
perceived as “seer”; someone with the ability to understand the general
mood of an electorate or a group of consumers and having the skills
to explain it to paying clients (Turcotte 2010: 207). Several prominent
practitioners—such as Richard Wirthlin, Robert Teeter, and Pat Caddell
in the United States; Martin Goldfarb and Allan Gregg in Canada:
Robert Worcester in England: as well as Jean Stoetzel and Jean-Marc
Lech—became household names. Then, a combination of technolog-
ical advancements and intellectual development refined the focus of the
industry.
Starting in the 1980s, developments in data collection allowed for the
processing of a large amount of data in a much shortened period of
time. First, Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) reduced
the time it took to conduct surveys. CATI also allowed for the develop-
ment of large-scale tracking surveys—surveys repeated several times for
monitoring changes in opinion. With that, the role of pollster evolved
from that of seer to akin to a surgeon “dissecting public opinion to focus
only those voters who are instrumental to victory and to comprehend
 1 HOW WE GOT HERE 9

those arguments that might sway them” (Turcotte 2010: 208). More-
over, the focus was increasingly put toward message testing and voter
segmentation. Those advances were also examined by academics involved
in the development of a new discipline that became known as political
marketing.
According to Jennifer Lees-Marshment, the lead scholar in this
emerging field, “political marketing is the use of marketing concepts
and techniques in politics […] political marketing studies the relationship
between a political organization’s product and the demands of its market”
(2005: 6). This simple realization challenged the way academics and prac-
titioners conceptualized the relationship and dynamics between voters and
political parties. It also affected the function and practicalities of polling
as it became clear that polling could best be used as “market intelli-
gence in order to identify citizen concerns, change their behaviour to
meet those demands and communicate their product offering more effec-
tively” (ibid.). The electorate is divided—or segmented—into increasingly
refined groups and political parties target their whole campaign efforts on
such groups while often ignoring the majority will. As mentioned in the
introduction, one of the objectives of this book is to look at the latest
innovations in public opinion research and how the rise of Data Manage-
ment Platforms and Branded Online Communities is changing the way
public opinion research is conducted. These innovations are the direct
results of the development in the practice of polling, the challenges posed
by the political marketing academic literature, and the latest technolog-
ical expansion in data analytics. As I will discuss in Chapter 2, the field
of polling has come a long way since the days of straw polls. But before
going any further, some clarifications can be useful.

Terminology
There are several terms associated with the conduct of public opinion
research and some definitions are useful. Broadly speaking, public opinion
research is the best way to describe the general field of study. In prac-
tice, the field relies on many approaches and methodologies; qualitative,
quantitative, and mixed. Quantitative methods follow the scientific and
positivist traditions in social science and believe that human behavior
can be examined through the use of both simple and complex statis-
tical models (Wrench et al. 2016: 13). Qualitative methods adopt a more
interpretive view of human behavior and think that such behavior can
10 A. TURCOTTE

only be understood through the examination and exploration of interac-

tions between individuals (ibid.). Instead of statistical models, qualitative
research yields an understanding of underlying trends and motivations.
Polling falls within the larger field of quantitative analysis: it is one
form of survey research. Accordingly, it relies on probability and aims at
inference. The main distinction between polling and the more general
survey research is that polling implies a regular monitoring of opinion
focused on change and trends, while survey research tends to be more in-
depth and less focused on longitudinal patterns (see Erikson and Tedin
2016 for a fuller discussion). More specifically, a survey is a statistical
analysis aiming to give a quantitative measurement of opinions, attitudes,
desires, or behavioral attributes of a population at a specific point in time
derived from a sample (Micheau 2018: 11).
The impact of market intelligence has been felt on the practice of
public opinion research but the basic instruments remain in place. A defi-
nition of market intelligence was offered in the introduction and will be
flushed out in the fourth chapter. New technologies have emerged as well
as more reliance on qualitative analysis or the combination of quantitative
models and qualitative insights. A fuller discussion of these developments
spurred by market intelligence will occur at the appropriate points in this
book.

The Quantification of Public Opinion

As previously mentioned, Jean-Jacques Rousseau was the first to refer to
public opinion in the modern sense. With the rise in prominence of survey
instruments, we have come to accept equating public opinion with what
is measured by polls. In fact, as Susan Herbst suggested, we, as a society,
“have put great value upon two seemingly unrelated processes – public
opinion and calculation” (1995: 1). She went on to say that:

Quantitative techniques for expressing and measuring public opinion are

attractive because of their objective and seemingly decisive nature, as well
as their ability to account for a multitude of individual opinions. Polit-
ical leaders, pollsters, journalists, interests groups, and members of the
public have been increasingly drawn to these methods of estimating public
opinion because numerical data tend to communicate authority. (ibid.: 2)
 1 HOW WE GOT HERE 11

While this book largely accepts this operationalization of public opinion,

or at least would allow for the argument that polls are the worst way to
measure public opinion, except for all the others, it is worth reflecting
upon the implication of this view of public opinion. As it was suggested
(see for instance Weisberg 2008), opinion polling is arguably the best
methodology yet designed to measure public opinion but it is not without
its limitations. In line with this quantification of public opinion also comes
an acceptance that measured public opinion should be given a prominent
role in influencing decisions; be it political decisions, business decisions,
or larger societal decisions.
It has been said that “the history of public opinion has never been
written partly because the subject is so broad; and partly because the
history is an exceedingly long one” (Herbst 1995: 48). The origins of a
modern discussion about what is public opinion go back to the Enlight-
enment. At that point in time, references to public opinion were largely
pejorative and associated with forms of social norms and control. We
can find several examples of this perception of public opinion from de
Tocqueville association between public opinion and social control—he
famously referred to public opinion as the tyranny of the majority—to the
ideas developed by Gabriel Tarde who suggested that public opinion was
a restrictive force setting the parameters of the general social climate. This
perception also found its way in literature where, for instance, Stendhal
described, in Le Rouge et le Noir (1830), public opinion as a form of
jurisdiction over societal norms (Blondiaux 35–36). However, a more
constructive conceptualization of public opinion was also emerging and
would arguably come to dominate, at least in most democratic societies.
A shift slowly occurred in France in the late 1700s and was associated
with the emergence of a popular critique of Royal Authority. This devel-
opment built on one of the early forms of public opinion expression: the
petition. There is evidence of English citizens petitioning Parliament as
early as 1648 (Herbst 1995: 52). English parliamentarians were wary of
this new development and saw petitioners as “an unruly mob marching
toward Parliament with their grievances in their hand” (ibid.). A less
belligerent expression of public opinion took place in Parisian salons
where intellectuals would gather to discuss issues and ideas. Talks in influ-
ential salons were monitored by the French government which recognized
the power of such gatherings to influence public opinion (ibid.: 53).
Slowly, two different metaphors emerged to describe divergent insights
into the impact of public opinion. One the one hand, public opinion
12 A. TURCOTTE

is seen as a tribunal of the reason mainly to the benefit of the elites

to enforce order and norms while on the other hand, public opinion is
portrayed, almost romantically, as an irresistible force at the service of the
masses to be used precisely against those elites trying to control them.
Inherent to this divide is a different view about whose opinions should
we heed; those of the most enlightened or those of the general masses?
The French Revolution tilted the discussion, in a dramatic manner, in
favor of the will of the general populace over the elite but did not settle
the debate. As Herbst suggested, “The French Revolution is one of the
most interesting events in the history of public opinion because it was
the first truly popular revolution” (Herbst 1995: 55). In the early 1800s,
the French government returned to its preferred practice of favoring the
opinions of landowners and the privileged class over the broader public.
However, l’Affaire Dreyfus would prove to be another important turning
point.
This was a scandal that rocked France between 1894 and 1906. It
involved a Jewish artillery captain in the French army, Alfred Dreyfus
(1859–1935), who was falsely convicted of passing military secrets to
the Germans. Dreyfus was summarily court-martialed, found guilty of
treason, and sentenced to life behind bars on Devil’s Island on French
Guiana. Before being sent to Devil’s Island, he was paraded in the
streets of Paris before a crowd that shouted “Death to Judas, death to
the Jew.” Exonerating evidence was found two years later but Dreyfus
remained incarcerated. At that time, a French newspaper published an
open letter titled “J’Accuse…!” by well-known author Emile Zola in
which he defended Dreyfus and accused the military of a major cover-
up in the case. As a result, Zola was convicted of libel but managed to
escape to England. In 1899, Dreyfus was court-martialed for the second
time and found guilty. Although he was pardoned days later by the French
president, it was not until 1906 that Dreyfus was officially exonerated
and reinstated in the army. These events are important because it repre-
sents the first successful example of an effort to mobilize public opinion
and influence governmental actions (Blondiaux 58). It demonstrated the
power and influence that mass opinion can exert. Shortly after that, James
Bryce published The American Commonwealth (1911) and articulated
a view of public opinion as a force that the government must respect
and listen to. He insisted that a democratic government is a govern-
ment by public opinion. Bryce emerged as a very influential voice to
which practitioners like Gallup, Roper, Crossley, and their descendants
 1 HOW WE GOT HERE 13

would link back to anchor their practical view of public opinion. Several
scholars raised doubts about the judgment of public opinion. Walter
Lippmann articulated a counterargument to Bryce and raised substan-
tive questions about the egalitarian nature of public opinion. In his works
Public Opinion (1922), Lippmann argued that citizens’ opinions are not
based on knowledge or reason but rather as a result of images and stereo-
types they have created or have been suggested to them. Lippmann’s
arguments were reminiscent of those made by Hegel (1821) and reit-
erated by Graham Wallas in Human Nature in Politics (1908) where he
raised questions about the rationality involved in citizens’ opinion. Lipp-
mann’s specific impact on market intelligence is discussed later in this
book.
The elitist argument of public opinion became popular in the 1920s
and 1930s and was developed in a series of works from around the world
such as Norman Angell, The Public Mind, Its Disorders, Its Exploitation
(1926); Jose Ortega Y Gasset, The Revolt of the Masses (1929); and Serge
Tchakhotine, The Rape of the Masses: the Psychology of Totalitarian Political
Propaganda (in English—1940). However, this intellectual argumenta-
tion was no match for the Gallup–Roper–Crossley practical experiment.
There was something almost irresistible in the early pollsters’ demon-
stration of their ability to quantify the disparate views of a population
and their “one person, one vote” egalitarian operationalization of public
opinion.

Some Important Technical Points

In the past decade, polling has faced new technical and methodological
challenges. Traditional telephone polling has become more difficult with
the increased reliance on cell phones, the decreased in landline usage,
and the wider use of call-screening devices. The Internet has emerged as
an alternative but also brings a separate set of methodological shortcom-
ings. Meanwhile, long-standing issues associated with survey design and
analyses remain important. I briefly address four main areas of concern.

A. Non-Attitudes

The issue of non-attitudes is both simple and perplexing. In 1964,

Philip E. Converse persuasively suggested that ordinary citizens hold
14 A. TURCOTTE

largely incoherent positions on most issues. In “The Nature of Belief

Systems in Mass Publics ” (1964), Converse suggested that most members
of the mass public fail to develop the ability to absorb the necessary
contextual information necessary to be able to make connections between
policy differences (1964: 54). Therefore, most people neither develop nor
follow a coherent set of beliefs which produces a clear ideology. In prac-
tical terms, this means that most people do not have strong belief systems;
they don’t think ideologically and most do not have coherent opinions on
issues. As Converse put it: “A realistic picture of political belief systems
in the mass public, then, is not that omits issues and policy demands
completely nor one that presumes widespread ideological coherence; it is
rather one that captures with some fidelity the fragmentation, narrowness,
and diversity of these demands” (ibid.). Accordingly, one must wonder
what is actually measured through opinion research.
As Asher observed, “too often in a survey context, people respond to
questions about which they have no genuine attitudes or opinions. Even
worse, the analyst, poll sponsor, or news organization treats the nonatti-
tude responses as if they represented actual public opinions” (2017: 43).
However, it remains that people do express opinions even if lacking in
depth and those opinions do have electoral consequences. Consequently,
it is misguided to ignore or not collect opinions from the uninformed
segments of the population. The more effective way to deal with non-
attitudes is to include questions that will gauge a respondent’s level of
familiarity with the issues tested in the study. Another approach is to
include screening or filter questions to separate likely attitudes holders
from non-attitudes respondents such as “Do you have an opinion on this
or not?” or “Have you thought much about this issue?” (Asher 2017: 48).
However, unlike what is often suggested; those respondents with little or
no familiarity should not be excluded from the study. By keeping them
as part of the overall findings, it becomes possible to examine analytically
differences in opinions and attitudes based on the level of familiarity and
understand the factors that heuristically contribute to opinion formation.

B. Question Wording

Writing survey questions is as much a science as it is a craft. In broad

terms, there are three basic ways of structuring questions. The most
frequently used type is the closed-ended question where respondents are
 1 HOW WE GOT HERE 15

asked a question but can only give predetermined answers. Open-ended

questions allow respondents to elaborate and answer in their own words.
Filter questions are used to screen respondents who should not answer
certain questions. For example, in a study about vote choice, people ineli-
gible to vote should not be asked their vote intentions. Question sequence
is also important. As Warren mentioned: “question sequence is crucial
in questionnaire design because, clearly, good questions asked out of
order or in an illogical sequence can ruin the worth of the questionnaire”
(Warren 2001: 147).
There are rules and tricks associated with the practice but a good ques-
tionnaire design comes with experience and practice. It also comes with
repeated experimentation to find out what works and what does not work.
But getting it right is essential. Quality findings rise or fall on the quality
of the questions. The key to success rests on two key points:

1. With this question, am I really measuring what I want to measure?

2. Is the proposed question one on which respondents can express
genuine opinions?

The first lessons are quite basic: keep it short, keep it clear, and use
everyday language. Writing survey questions should not be an opportu-
nity for the researcher to show his or her erudition or level of knowledge
about issues. The language used should be simple and at a level that
everyone can understand. More precisely, the questions should be short.
If your question is longer than about fifty (50) words, you should trun-
cate it or rethink it. Even more importantly, a question should not be used
to educate the respondent. Too often, questions have preamble which
are clearly intended to provide a point of view about a particular issue
and then measure opinions as a reaction to the preamble rather than
to the actual issue. This will likely result in biased results and/or the
measurement of non-attitudes as previously discussed. It is essential to
write questions using the language of the respondents rather than of the
researchers.
There are two straightforward ways to ensure that the language used is
appropriate. The first is by pretesting the survey instrument. This implies
“road-testing” the questionnaire with a small sample of respondents not
with the objective of measuring opinions but to ensure that respondents
understand the questions. A second common approach is to conduct
16 A. TURCOTTE

focus groups before the data collection begins and discuss the meaning
and level of comprehension of the questions. Both suggestions are adding
to the overall costs of the research project but the resulting validity of the
survey instruments is worth the investment.
We can focus on a list of seven basic tenets that should contribute to
the design of a survey instruments that would yield valid and actionable
findings:

1. The overall design of the survey instrument should follow a “fun-

nel” structure. Very general and easy to answer questions should
be put at the beginning of the questionnaire to build comfort and
gather broad information.
2. The survey instrument should then become more and more specific;
with the most precise and harder-to-answer questions left for the
latter part of the questionnaire.
3. Always insert “screening questions”; questions that will gauge the
level of familiarity and knowledge about the issues evaluated. In
doing so, researchers can take steps to minimize the number of
responses that are superficial reactions to the interview stimulus.
The simplest strategy is “to make it socially acceptable for respon-
dents to say that they are unfamiliar with the topic of a question”
(Asher 2017: 48).
4. Another general rule about survey design is to avoid double
negatives in the writing of the questions.
5. In the same vein, it is important to avoid argumentative and leading
questions.
6. In order to keep questions as short as possible, the use of branching
questions can be very effective. Branching questions are follow-up
questions asked after an initial query is presented to respondents.
7. Finally, it is important to be conscious of the potential impact of
question order and context. Question order and context do affect
responses to survey items by altering the framework and context
within which a question is answered. While this cannot be avoided,
it is incumbent on the researcher to be aware of potential effect.
Once again, pretesting can be the best solution to minimize this
potential threat to validity.
 1 HOW WE GOT HERE 17

C. Sampling

For many, “sampling is the most problematic feature of public opinion

polling” (Erikson and Tedin 2016: 135). The usual query resembles
something along the lines of “how can the opinions of 1000 respon-
dents be representative of the whole country?” But while people may not
be aware of it, we use some form of sampling almost daily. For example,
when you buy a bottle of wine at a restaurant, you take a small sip to
gauge whether you have made the right selection; before downloading an
entire music album, you may listen to a few songs first; and you do not
need to eat your whole meal before finding out if it is warm enough.
Those examples are usually sufficient to persuade most skeptics about
the basic validity of sampling. However, for those who refused to be
convinced of the validity of sampling, I like to tell them that the next
time their doctor recommends a blood test, they should ask to have all of
their blood taken out instead of a small syringe of it.
Sampling is a useful everyday procedure as it gives us the opportunity
to understand something large by only looking at only a small part of it.
Accordingly, sampling is the process of taking a small portion, or sample,
to understand a much larger whole. If drawn properly, that small portion
will capture the characteristics of the larger whole. The key to effective
sampling is representativeness.
In its essence, “a representative sample is one in which every major
attribute of the larger population from which the sample is drawn
is present in roughly the proportion or frequency with which those
attributes occur in that larger population” (Brians et al. 2011: 133). A
representative sample is therefore a microcosm—a smaller, but accurate,
model—of the larger population from which it is taken. And when it
is the case, it is possible to reach conclusions based on a study of that
sample may be safely regarded as applying to the original population. This
extension of findings is what is meant by generalizability (ibid.).
There are two main types of sampling: probability and non-probability
sampling. The difference between the two types is whether or not
the sampling selection involves randomization. Randomization occurs
when all members of the sampling frame have an equal opportunity
of being selected for the study. A sample will be representative only if
the researcher uses a random selection procedure to choose participants.
Without going into too much detail, there are several types of probability
sampling:
18 A. TURCOTTE

A. Random sampling when every member has an equal chance;

B. Stratified sampling when a population is divided into subgroups
(strata) and members are randomly selected from each group;
C. Systematic sampling which uses a specific system to select members
such as every 10th person on an alphabetized list:
D. Cluster random sampling where the researchers divide the popula-
tion into clusters, clusters are randomly selected and all members of
the cluster selected are sampled; and
E. Multistage random sampling which is a combination of one or more
of the above methods.

In contrast, non-probability sampling does not rely on the use of

randomization techniques to select members. This is usually done in
studies where randomization is not possible in order to obtain a repre-
sentative sample. In this case, the researcher has to be concerned with
potential bias in the composition of the sample and he or she will not be
able to generalize the findings. Bias is more of a concern with this type
of sampling and should only be used when randomness is impossible to
achieve.

D. Interviewing and Data Collection Procedures

There are four broad mechanisms to collect the data we need to

conduct analysis. The original data collection method is the personal
interview. Personal interviewing has several advantages. First, it is a very
flexible survey method since interviewers can rely on several interviewing
techniques and gather very rich data. Moreover, the response rate tends
to be higher for this type of method. However, personal interviewing is
very expensive. Moreover, it is time-consuming and does not allow for
the rapid turnaround needed for most nonacademic projects. A second
method is mail surveys. The strengths and weaknesses of mail surveys
stand almost directly opposite to personal interviewing. Mail survey is
relatively cheap to conduct. The method offers little flexibility since the
respondents’ answers are limited to the questions as written in the survey
instrument. Another disadvantage of this method is that the response rate
tends to be very low, rendering the possibility to draw a random sample
quite remote.
 1 HOW WE GOT HERE 19

Since the 1980s, telephone interviewing has been the most commonly
used and reliable data collection method. This technique has several
advantages. First, it is affordable. Other advantages of telephone inter-
viewing include “the speed of completion, the control over who responds,
and the flexibility offered in allowing an interviewer to ensure appropriate
responses” (Brians et al. 2011: 164). However, it is becoming increasingly
difficult to draw a reliable telephone sample since more and more people
no longer have a telephone. As a response to the difficulties associated
with telephone interviewing, internet surveys have emerged as an alterna-
tive. The emergence of such surveys is driven by its numerous advantages.
Specifically, internet surveys are cost-efficient as they are self-administered
and thus not requiring interviewers or long-distance charges. Internet
surveys can be done with people around the world, in different languages
and thus, very fast. They also offer flexibility in the research design. Ques-
tionnaires can incorporate images or short video clips and experiments
can be embedded seamlessly. While internet surveys may be the answer to
the declining response rates associated with telephone interviewing, self-
selection bias and difficulties associated with drawing representative online
sample remain serious drawbacks with this data collection method. As we
will see in a subsequent chapter, the latest developments in Data Manage-
ment Platforms and online communities constitute attempts to rectify the
drawbacks of internet surveys. But before we are ready to explore those
new developments, we turn our attention to the oldest and more familiar
type of public opinion research: media polls.

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 CHAPTER 2

Media Polls: The Gallup Legacy

Abstract For many years, Gallup was synonymous with media polling.
George Gallup was one of the pioneers of scientific or random opinion
research but the reach of his influence goes beyond the Gallup Poll. This
chapter traces the origins of media polling. It goes beyond the typical
discussion of the early pioneers—Roper, Crossley, and Gallup—but looks
at the influence of academics; it moves beyond the US-centric narrative
and discusses the international development of this field. It also provides a
new suggested framework for reporting poll results in the media. Finally,
a specific example of a media poll is presented.

Keywords Media · Polling · Academics · Gallup · Probability sampling ·

Election polls

It was my first job in polling. I was a second-year doctoral student at the

University of Toronto and I was hired to be the coeditor of the Gallup Report
in Canada. At the time, the Gallup Report in Canada had about twenty
media subscribers across the country and the findings were widely dissem-
inated. With the full confidence of a Ph.D. student, I entered the Gallup
Canada office on Bloor Street in Toronto, convinced that my academic
credentials and analytical expertise were the motivating factors in my hiring
and I was looking forward to the opportunities to showcase my skills. The

© The Author(s) 2021 21

A. Turcotte, Political Marketing Alchemy, Palgrave Studies
in Political Marketing and Management,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53713-5_2
22 A. TURCOTTE

President of Gallup Canada asked me to his office and I was looking

forward to hear what advanced quantitative analysis he was expecting me
to do. He said: “Andre, the quality of your performance here as co-editor
of the Gallup Report will be judged by how often the Gallup Poll makes it
on the front page of the newspapers.” He paused for a few seconds to get my
attention and added; “especially above the fold.” This was not the introduc-
tion to the world of media polling I was expecting but I proceeded to do just
that.
Hardly a day goes by without several media polls being released on
topic as varied as one’s favorite color or toothpaste to the best person
to lead the country. While most citizens are familiar with media polls, it
remains that this practice is not well understood. This chapter looks in
greater details at the Gallup legacy outlined in the previous chapter. It
examines the rationale for the public release of public opinion polls. Back
in 1965, George Gallup was optimistic about the future of polls: “As
students, scholars, and the general public gain a better understanding of
polls, they will have a greater appreciation of the service polls can perform
in a democracy. In my opinion, modern polls are the chief hope of lifting
government to a higher level” (in Asher 2016: 34). Similarly, Archibald
Crossley suggested that: “scientific polling makes it possible within two or
three days at moderate expense for the entire nation to work hand in hand
with its legislative representatives, on laws which affect our daily lives.
Here is the long sought key to Government by the people” (Converse
2009: 122). Few commentators would echo such lofty sentiments today.
The focus of this chapter is on the main purpose of media polling—
to generate publicity, name recognition, and ancillary business for the
polling firm conducting the polls. But the relationship goes both ways. As
Warren posited: “journalists have always been attracted to polls because
of the obvious news value of polls […]. The press, finding polls to be a
highly useful means of supplementing their coverage of numerous topics,
began to support polling as an integral feature of their news opera-
tions” (Warren 2001: 181). By understanding this purpose, it becomes
possible to discuss the technical, ethical, and methodological ramifications
of generating accurate data with media appeal. Understanding this aspect
of media polling is important because in the age of market intelligence,
campaigns rely and integrate media polling results in their overall moni-
toring of the mood of the electorate. National polling has been replaced
by highly segmented and surgical polling and media polls, despite their
limitations, increasingly provide the more general and contextual view
 2 MEDIA POLLS: THE GALLUP LEGACY 23

of voters’ moods and priorities. But before going into those details, I
begin with a brief discussion of the relationship between academic public
opinion research and the broader field of market intelligence. Academics
have been involved in this field from the beginning and played a crucial
role in legitimizing the embryonic practice of media polling. Academics
continue to play an important role in the continuing development of
market intelligence. However, this contribution is rarely discussed.

Academics and the Legitimization of Media Polls

George Gallup understood better than most the need for legitimacy for
the nascent industry of media polling. Right from the start, he insisted
on being referred to in the media as “Dr. George Gallup.” He also estab-
lished his headquarters in Princeton New Jersey. As Wheeler remarked,
“Gallup has been accused of setting up his polling firm in Princeton
just so it would have a prestigious address. He denies the charge, but
he was astute enough to know that the Princeton dateline was a valu-
able asset” (1976: 55). Archibald Crossley also moved to Princeton
early on (Blondiaux 1998: 225). It is also in Princeton that a group of
academics and business people established, in 1937, an academic publi-
cation that still exists today. The Public Opinion Quarterly was designed
to address methodological questions, theoretical reflections, and provide
information to scholars and practitioners (ibid.: 118).
Prominent academics also provided early support to the efforts by
Gallup, Crossley, and Roper to measure public opinion and dissemi-
nate this information through the media. The list of early academic
entrepreneurs (Converse 2009: 131) is substantial with names such as
Merton, Floyd, Allport, Stouffer, Newcomb, and Katz. However, three
key academics deserve closer attention: Paul Lazarsfeld, Hadley Cantril,
and Rensis Likert. As Jean Converse suggested, “the trio of focus here is
of special interest because they were the first research entrepreneurs who
made important links between academic culture and the applied research
of business and government” (ibid.: 132).
Paul Lazarsfeld earned a Ph.D. in applied mathematics from the
University of Vienna in 1925. He fled rising fascism in Austria and
came to the United States in 1933. He is likely best known for his
leadership role at the Bureau of Applied Research. He has also made
important contributions to important aspects of the survey research
process namely, questionnaire and interview design, integration between
24 A. TURCOTTE

quantitative analysis and qualitative insights, index construction, subjec-

tive measurement, and panel analysis. Such contributions are important
because they occurred at a time when survey research was still in its
infancy. Maybe more importantly, Lazarsfeld was a strong promoter of
a close relationship between academic research and commercial research.
He chided “his colleagues for failing to realize the intellectual poten-
tial of conducting research for and about business. Lazarsfeld sought and
preached the scientific value of commercial work for the testing of instru-
ments, the training for students, and the pursuit of theory” (ibid.: 251).
Another of the earliest supporters was Hanley Cantril. He was a professor
in social psychology who developed much of the early field on attitudinal
research. Along with Daniel Katz, another professor in social psychology,
both scholars published a series of journal articles in support of this new
Gallup methodology. More importantly, Cantril and Katz supported the
potential benefits media polls may have on democracy (Blondiaux 1998:
228). In 1940, Cantril joined the faculty at Princeton University and set
up The Office of Public Opinion Research and began a formal collabora-
tion with Gallup. After the success of the seminal work on voting behavior
The People’s Choice (1944), Paul Lazarsfeld began collaborating with the
Roper Institute. He also wrote commentaries in the popular weekly The
Nation in support of public opinion polling.
The Second World War also had an impact on bringing legitimacy to
polling. Academics and pollsters collaborated to the war effort through
many federally funded programmes and institutes such as; the Research
Branch of the Division of Solider Morale, the Survey Division of the Office of
War Information, and the Division of Program Surveys at the US Depart-
ment of Agriculture (Blondiaux 1998: 244). Then in 1947, the American
Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) was established and
this association began publishing the well-respected Public Opinion Quar-
terly. The same year, the World Association of Public Opinion Research
(WAPOR) was founded in Williamston, Massachusetts with the specific
mandate “to unite the world of survey research within the universities and
the world of survey research within private institutes” (Worcester 1983:
1). Jean Stoetzel was its first elected President.
Stoetzel was an important international figure who played a key role
in establishing early collaboration between academics and media poll-
sters beyond the United States. As noted in the previous chapter, he
was responsible for the creation of IFOP (l’Institut français d’opinion
publique). As a professor from the Collège de France, Stoetzel positioned
 2 MEDIA POLLS: THE GALLUP LEGACY 25

IFOP as a quasi-academic institute, a reputation which persists to this

day. His objective was to develop a “French science of public opinion”
(Blondiaux 1998: 311). Despite his business obligations as the head of
IFOP, he published widely in academic journals, retained his faculty posi-
tion at the Collège, and was often seen at academic and nonacademic
conferences. The same approach was observed in other countries. For
instance, the Italian firm, DOXA, was established in 1946 in large part
by academics (Luzzatto-Fegiz 1983: 138) and the first polling firm in the
Netherlands was also founded by an academic (Stapel 1983: 170). The
famed scholar Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann played a similar catalyst role for
polling in Germany and one of George Gallup’s first associates in Britain
was Dr. Henry Durant (Worcester 1991: 5). Spurred by all these develop-
ments, The International Journal of Attitude and Opinion Research began
publication in 1951.
Three key research organizations developed survey research under the
guise of university science; the Bureau of Applied Social Research at
Columbia University, the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at
the University of Denver, and the Survey Research Center (SRC) at the
University of Michigan. The Bureau may not have been the first academic
research center in sociology in an American university. For instance, the
Institute of Research in Social Science (IRSS) at the University of North
Carolina was founded by Howard Odum in 1924. However, “[SRC]
was the most significant and influential for the growth of quantitative
research in that discipline and the first of three organizations central to the
development of academic survey research” (Converse 2009: 267). Lazars-
feld’s experience as the Head of the Bureau is a good indication of the
uneasy relationship academia had—and maybe still has—with commer-
cial work. Lazarsfeld was very successful in getting lucrative contracts
with industry and used the profits from such contracts to fund academic
projects. While university administrators eyed the profits with interests,
many were uneasy with potential conflicts of interests and the loss of
academic independence. Nevertheless, Lazarsfeld was determined and
succeeded in building a “professional school in social research” (ibid.:
281). As Converse suggested: “The Bureau was at once Lazarsfeld’s pride,
a special source of intellectual and personal stimulation – he felt that he
himself absolutely required the presence of students and a research orga-
nization to function as a scholar – and a source of personal frustration,
because he wanted so much more for it” (ibid.: 284).
26 A. TURCOTTE

In the summer of 1941, Harry H. Field founded the National Opinion

Research Center (NORC) at the University of Denver. Field was well-
qualified to undertake this project as he had previously helped Gallup
set up both the British Institute of Public Opinion and the French
Gallup Poll. His vision was to develop a research center dedicated to
improving the methods used to measure public opinion. But as it was
the case for the Bureau, financial pressures mounted and the NORC
had to try to find commercial contracts to pay its bills. Unfortunately
for the Center, Field was not as adept at generating private contracts as
Lazarsfeld and their early years were a constant struggle. Upon Field’s
untimely death at 49 years of age, his successor pressed the search for
information about other possible universities. “Cantril hoped that NORC
would come to Princeton and work with OPOR. Likert wanted to merge
it into the Survey Research Center, which he and a small group from
Program Surveys were establishing at the University of Michigan. Lazars-
feld wanted NORC to become a division of the Bureau of Applied Social
Research. Other social scientists at Cornell, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh and
Chicago put in their bids” (Converse 2009: 315). Ultimately, the Univer-
sity of Chicago won. The NORC contributions to the field focused on
an expanded approach to data analysis, moving from the early atten-
tion given to frequencies to concerted efforts to analyses of relationships.
NORC’s most well-known contributions are its data collection work done
a series of well-regarded work such as Stouffer’s Communism, Conformity,
and Civil Liberties (1955), Lazarsfeld and Thielens’ The Academic Mind
(1958) and Almond and Verba’s The Civic Culture (1963). NORC was
the first to design what it was then called “time-sharing projects” or what
we now refer to as omnibus studies where clients can purchase a few
questions for a fee instead of having to pay for a whole survey (Converse
2009: 338). But the NORC’s most important contribution is the role
it played in the creation of the American Association of Public Opinion
Research (AAPOR) which provided “a place outside of the traditional
social science disciplines for the professional shelter and development of
survey researchers from commercial and academic life” (ibid.: 339).
In 1946, the Survey Research Centre (SRC) was founded and has
focused on studies of the American electorate ever since. One of the
most influential books on public opinion and voting, The American Voter
(Campbell et al. 1960), was published by a group associated with the
SRC. One of the most important contributions of the SRC is the effort
put into developing questions. Rensis Likert was the first director of the
 2 MEDIA POLLS: THE GALLUP LEGACY 27

SRC and he further refined and tested his well-known Likert scale. The
work done about elections led to the development of a series of questions
to measure socio-demographic concepts and those questions are still in
use today. The SRC is also responsible for psychological measures and the
operationalization of the concept of party identification. The SRC was
also at the forefront of creating longitudinal polling databases. Warren
Miller, who was associated with the SRC, “began to seek support in
the institute for the idea of archiving and distributing [Election Studies
data] and other data to the wider community of scholars, a notion that
came into being as the Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social
Research in 1961” (Converse 2009: 367). The SRC also pioneered open-
ended questioning and coding reliability. The Centre also became “the
single most important academic practitioner of area probability sampling,
second in influence only to sampling statisticians in government” (ibid.:
370–371).
There is little doubt that the early collaboration between media poll-
sters and academics was beneficial to the nascent industry. Academics
legitimized the practice, explained the process, assuaged doubts, and
supported the dissemination of survey results both for their accuracy
and their potential benefits for democracy. The series of high-profiled
successes in the 1950s and 1960s—especially those discussed in the
previous chapter—allowed the media polling industry to assert itself and
gained public confidence. At the same time, it became less dependent on
academic legitimization. This led to what Blondiaux called “La Victoire
de l’Industrie” (1998) where public opinion polling as a whole and media
polling in particular became an accepted and respected practice.
This is not to suggest that the collaboration stopped. To the contrary,
academics and media pollsters continue to exchange ideas, use each other
for experimenting with new approaches and designs, and often timeshare
data and insights. Both AAPOR and WAPOR—among others—hold
annual conferences attended by academics and practitioners. Moreover,
several prominent media pollsters continue to be academics following the
precedent set by Gallup. However, the relationship is different. While
media polling needed the support of academics in its inception, both
spheres coexist as equal within the larger opinion research ecosystem.
There is some evidence that the relationship between media polling
and academics is closest in newer democracies (Mattes 2012: 184). But
recent setbacks and new methodological challenges have contributed to a
28 A. TURCOTTE

renewed sense of collaboration with the determined objective of making

sure that the practice remains viable and trustworthy.

Walking a Fine Line

Mass media, public opinion, and opinion polling have shared a close rela-
tionship for more than 200 years. Before the advent of scientific opinion
polling about ninety years, “both political leaders and lay people used
media coverage as a proxy for public opinion, while in addition and after
the invention of opinion polling, the media’s use of opinion polls has
become an important part of their coverage of politics in general and
election campaigns in particular” (Holtz-Bacha and Stromback 2012: 1).
It is in the nineteenth century that journalists, party backroom boys,
and politicians realized the usefulness of the quantification and reporting
of public opinion. Straw polls, despite their volatile accuracy, had great
rhetorical usefulness. Newspaper editors found that readers were inter-
ested in keeping informed about changing public attitudes while pollsters
gained exposure. It became clear early on that journalists recognized the
value of evaluating public opinion “since in a democracy – public opinion
matters – it is news” (Herbst 1993: 115). More specifically, “rigorous
assessment of popular helps editors figure out what the public wants to
hear or read about, and therefore shapes news content… also people like
to read and hear about themselves and opinion polls enable social compar-
ison on a mass scale” (ibid.). As Michael Traugott suggested, “Pollsters
and news organizations have enjoyed a symbiotic relationship over this
time period because of the interest of the pollsters in promoting their
commercial business and the interest of news organization in enhancing
their coverage” (2012: 69).
The release of public opinion polls in the media—first in newspapers,
then on television, and today on all media platforms—began in the United
States and quickly expanded to Canada, Great Britain, and France. It
rapidly spread to most democracies and at times, in unlikely locales. For
instance, the first polling firm in Brazil was founded in 1942 and an
embryonic form of media polling emerged in that country. The Gallup
Institute opened an affiliate in Brazil in 1967 (Holtz-Bacha and Strom-
back 2012: 138–139). Australia was also a very early adopter. Election
polls have been published in Australian media since 1943 (ibid.: 155).
Germany followed suit. After the Second World War, media polls relying
 2 MEDIA POLLS: THE GALLUP LEGACY 29

on scientific sample became institutionalized in that country. As Holtz-

Bacha indicated, “The occupying forces used opinion research to assess
the situation of the German population, the attitudes towards their poli-
cies and the progress of the democratization process” (ibid.: 96). This
led to the creation of the first German Survey Institutes. Of note, Elisa-
beth Noelle-Neumann founded the Allensbach Institute with her husband
Erich Peter Neumann in 1947 (ibid.). Election polls first received wide
attention in the German media in the 1965 election campaign and have
been a fixture of media coverage ever since. By the 1960s, media polling
was a reality in most democracies and the practice thrived.
The second wave of expansion occurred in the late 1990s. Postcommu-
nist countries embraced media polling albeit in a tentative way. Emerging
democracies have also realized the benefits of media polling but at the
same time, are struggling with the consequences. For example, media
polling played a prominent role in South Africa during the transition
to the post-Apartheid period. They were perceived as an essential part
of the national dialogue. Since then, however, media polling has stag-
nated. Media outlets are reluctant to conduct their own surveys and
whatever reporting does occur focuses on consumer confidence and broad
sociopolitical attitudes instead of assessments of government performance
or candidates, or of political party preferences (2012: 175).
Whether in developed or emerging democracies, media polling occurs
in one of three ways. Commercial firms insert questions about issues of
the day into existing market research questionnaires—for free—in order
to publish the findings if they are newsworthy and therefore get free
advertising for the company through the resulting media publicity. At
times, commercial firms establish a relationship with a specific media
outlet which is given the first chance of refusal on polling releases as well
as potential exclusive coverage. Third, news media organizations take the
lead role in commissioning a study; commission the work to a polling
firm; and either publish the results as news or use the data to add context
to other reporting. Regardless of the process, we can isolate six key bene-
fits to the practice both for the media and the polling firms (adapted from
Traugott 2012):

1. Sponsoring and covering its own opinion polls gives the news media
the ability to generate exclusive news. Accordingly, the polls become
newsgathering tools and can provide substantial boost in ratings and
ad revenue to the news organization.
30 A. TURCOTTE

2. In sponsoring its own poll gives the news media full control of the
coverage of the poll.
3. Depending on the findings, poll results can provide drama and
appeal to audiences that may not have otherwise been interested
in the coverage.
4. Opinion polls fit nicely in the media-preferred “horse-race” framing
of the news.
5. Opinion poll results have an automatic sheen of objectivity.
6. Opinion polls legitimize the news media’s role as representatives of
the public, and to mark independence from elected officials.

Because of the potential impact of media polling, there have been

calls—for decades now—for a standard approach to disclose the main
methodological elements of the polls in order to provide the public with
a mechanism to evaluate the origins, legitimacy, and overall validity of the
findings.
In Canada, one of the most comprehensive looks at the impact
and possible regulation of media polls was done as part of the Royal
Commission on Electoral Reform and Party Financing created in 1989.
A specific report on media polling was tabled as part of the work from
the Commission by Guy Lachapelle entitled Polls and the Media in Cana-
dian Elections (1991). In this report, Lachapelle made a series of specific
recommendations:

1. The adoption of a 72-hour blackout period for the publication of

opinion polls results.
2. A ban on the publication of exit poll results before the closing of all
polling stations.
3. The mandatory publication of a technical grid with the release of
each media poll.
4. The mandatory publication of a margin of error.
5. A standard manner of publishing voting intentions to allow for
accurate comparison.
6. The creation of an independent Media Polling Commission to over-
look the publication of media polls. The Commission should be
given the power to impose fines when regulations are not followed
and the Commission should report to the Elections Canada.
 2 MEDIA POLLS: THE GALLUP LEGACY 31

7. And that all the recommendations specified above be also extended

to referenda.

These recommendations are a substantive extension of previous attempts

to develop a fair framework for the reporting of polls. For instance, Kath-
leen Frankovic discussed an experiment by the American-based National
Council on Public Polls (2012: 123) which developed a list of twenty
questions a journalist should ask about opinion polls, specifically:

1. Who did the poll?

2. Who paid for the poll and why was it done?
3. How many people were interviewed for the survey?
4. How were those people chosen?
5. What area (nation, state, or region) or what group (teachers,
lawyers, Democratic voters, etc.) were these people chosen from?
6. Are the results based on the answers of all the people interviewed?
7. Who should have been interviewed and was not? Or do response
rates matter?
8. When was the poll done?
9. How were the interviews conducted?
10. What about polls on the Internet or World Wide Web?
11. What is the sampling error for the poll results?
12. What other kinds of factors can skew poll results?
13. What questions were asked?
14. In what order were the questions asked?
15. What about “push polls?”
16. What other polls have been done on this topic? Do they say the
same thing? If they are different, why are they different?
17. What about exit polls?
18. What else needs to be included in the report of the poll?
19. So I’ve asked all the questions. The answers sound good. Should
we report the results?

This approach received the support of prominent organizations such as

AAPOR, WAPOR, and ESOMAR (newly renamed as World Associa-
tion of Opinion and Marketing Research Professionals). But just like
Lachapelle’s and others, the enforcement of such rules proved impossible.
The main obstacle is simply practicality. Media reporting does lot lend
32 A. TURCOTTE

itself well to this level of granular details. But this has not stopped other
organizations from trying. The latest attempt is CNN’s Transparency
Questionnaire (cnn.com) which proposes the following:

1. What survey firm conducted the poll?

2. How were respondents interviewed—by live interviewers on the
phone, IVR, online, self-administered questionnaire, or another
method?
3. Who paid for the survey and why was it done?
4. How many people were interviewed for this survey?
5. In what language(s) were respondents interviewed?
6. Please provide a copy of the full text and interviewer instruc-
tions/programming for all questions included in this survey
release.
7. When was your survey conducted?
8. What is the source of your sample for this survey, and by what
method were respondents selected? Please be as specific as possible,
and if via web panel(s), please include a description of how
the panelists were recruited. If your study was conducted online
and included respondents chosen via routers, approximately what
percentage of respondents was directed to the survey via routers?
9. If any quotas were applied to sampling or interviewing, at what
stage were they applied, what variables and targets were used, and
what is the source of your estimate of the target quota?
10. What is the universe of people you are trying to survey, and
what makes you confident that the sample source represents that
universe?
11. If surveys were conducted by telephone, what percentage of inter-
views was conducted via calls to cell phones? If surveys were
conducted online, were respondents allowed to complete the
survey via mobile browsers, and approximately what share of your
respondents did so?
12. If surveys were conducted by telephone, how many callback
attempts did a sampled number receive before being retired?
13. If surveys were not conducted by a live interviewer, what do you do
to ensure your respondents are real people and are paying attention
to the survey?
14. What is your estimate of this survey’s error, how is it calculated,
and why is this an appropriate error estimation for your survey? If
 2 MEDIA POLLS: THE GALLUP LEGACY 33

you are reporting a margin of sampling error, has it been adjusted

for design effects?
15. If your survey has been weighted, please list the weighting variables
and the source of the weighting parameters. If your survey has
not been adjusted for education, please explain why and provide
an unweighted frequency for education distribution among your
respondents.
16. Is there a minimum unweighted sample size you require before
releasing any subset estimates, and if so, what is it?

I turn my attention to a specific case study to examine how media polling

is conducted and in doing so will suggest that CNN’s Transparency Ques-
tionnaire, like all previous attempts—is unlikely to be used in the current
media environment.

A Case Study: CBC’s On Guard for Me

In April 2019, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC)—the
public broadcaster in Canada—decided to commission an election-related
poll. This was the first such CBC-commissioned election poll in more
than a decade. As noted above, media polling occurs either through free
omnibus questions released by polling firms for publicity or when news
media organizations take the lead and pay a polling firm to conduct the
poll. In this instance, it was the latter rather than the former—cheaper
and more prevalent—alternative.
When polling firms release free polling data for publicity, it is usually
done in the following manner. Representatives from the polling firm
would contact potential media people who may be interested in the
issue(s) or the findings. They may also write a media release to be
distributed on newswire services or online. Media organizations decide
whether to cover the poll they received—or not—and the coverage tends
to be limited to one story. While restricted in depth, the polling firms
benefit from potential exposure on several media platforms. The process
leading to a commissioned poll is much different.
Meetings about the CBC poll began in April when representatives from
CBC News and the internal research department discussed the justifica-
tion for conducting a preelection poll, a general framework such as a focus
on issue concerns and away from “horse-race” questions, and potential
34 A. TURCOTTE

themes. A long list of issues to be explored was drawn which included

the following themes:

The Economy
Cost of Living
Climate Change
Populism
The Rise of White Supremacy
Indigenous Realities
Social Issues and Inequality
Trust in Institutions and Politicians
The Environment

From the beginning, meeting the news of the different audiences was
paramount. From the news media, the potential “newsworthiness” of the
questions and findings was front and center in the discussions. Without
preempting the data collection, the group was thinking about media
coverage and potential storylines. But it was also important to provide
depth about policy positions which are of particular interest to both the
general public and politicians. Furthermore, since it had control of the
process, CBC could also discuss sample design to include a focus on
certain groups such as new Canadians, first-time voters, and Indigenous
people. It was only when the themes had been identified and the frame-
work adopted that the attention turned to choosing a polling firm to
execute the project.
Key characteristics of this process can be identified even at this early
stage. A news media organization commissioning its own poll has the
ability to:

1. Think of what they want to cover before they reach out to a polling
firm. This is the opposite of what happens when a polling firm sends
findings to a media organization in the hope that it will be covered.
2. Identify key subgroups of the population they want to hear from.
3. Think of media coverage ahead of time and cover polling results as
part of a larger story instead of having the poll being the story.
4. Provide context and do background research to help explain the
findings and their implication.
 2 MEDIA POLLS: THE GALLUP LEGACY 35

5. Plan interviews to inject more substance to the coverage of poll

findings.
6. Be less dependent on the sole expertise of an outside polling firm
and assemble a team of experts to maximize insights.
7. Be able to rely on numerous questions rather than the few questions
the polling firm was able to fit in for free on their omnibus study.

The second stage of the process was to choose a polling firm and hold
discussions leading to the development of the research design and the
questionnaire. This is a unique and interesting process where the polling
firm brings in methodological expertise; legitimacy and experience; and
the media organization wants to ensure that the findings are both statisti-
cally sound, publicly defensible, and yet, newsworthy. The back-and-forth
between the two parties is instructive. The media organization has the
opportunity to learn the basic requirements of a solid research design,
the parameters of a sampling design and general rules about question
wording and questionnaire design. They get an understanding of what
type of questions are easier for respondents to answer and how to ensure
that questions are balanced and fair. For their part, the representatives
from the polling firm get a better understanding of how the media gener-
ally perceive the polling function and how they use findings when they
want to incorporate them in media coverage. The polling gets a glimpse of
how media coverage comes together, the limitations in terms of time and
depth and the pressure of meeting deadlines. Both parties benefit from
this partnership and the end results are arguably better (see full design in
the Appendix of this chapter).
The third stage in the process involved the organizing of the data and
planning of the coverage. Once again, this is a process where the media
organization took the lead. Once data collection was completed and the
polling firm provided its report, journalists and the internal research team
poured over the results. Early hypotheses were confirmed while others
dismissed. Specifically, the results pointed to the fact that despite a rise in
concern over white supremacy in the United States, Canada was largely
immune from it. Populism was also a force that was not as pertinent as
in the south of the border. What emerged from the poll findings was
a nation quite distraught and anxious about the present and the future.
Canadians were concerned about basic issues such as the cost of living,
their own health and that of their family, climate change to the extent
that it may affect them, jobs and employment, and the lack of social
36 A. TURCOTTE

mobility. What was different was their lack of confidence in politicians,

elites, institutions to do anything about it. For example, while concerned
about climate change, they refused to make changes or pay more in taxes
as they felt the government would be unable to make any improvements.
They lost confidence in any reform of the health care system and wanted
to be empowered to take care of their own health. They were concerned
about the changing nature of society, were wary of their future economic
well-being and that of their family. Above all, they felt that they could
not turn to the traditional institutions and social actors for solutions and
help.
The media organization pondered about how to organize all the
themes into a coherent and compelling narrative. How to describe this
anxious nation turning inwardly for solutions? The coverage was eventu-
ally organized under the theme “On Guard for Me” a clever twist on a
famous line in Canada’s national anthem: “On Guard for Thee.” With
that, the findings were ready for coverage on TV, radio, and digital.
Media coverage was organized thematically and spread over eight
days between June 30 and July 7, 2019. Stories with a national angle
were covered during the CBC’s flagship evening newscast The National
which airs every evening at 10 pm. Those stories were given subsequent
coverage on CBC News Network—a 24-day cable news channel. Stories
with regional angles were covered by CBC local news across Canada.
Special in-depth analysis was provided on cbc.ca. CBC’s Radio One also
joined the coverage with a more in-depth look at social issues explored
in the poll. As part of this multi-platform coverage, a decision needed to
be made about the level of methodological details which needed to be
provided. Several frameworks and methodological checklists have been
suggested over the years just like the three examples I discussed above.
The multi-platform news coverage provides some possibilities in terms of
striking a balance between full disclosure of methodological details and
time and space restrictions of contemporary media coverage.
The reality is that the level of granularity suggested in most frame-
works cannot be accommodated during television coverage and is not
well-suited for radio coverage. The required details are too tedious and
boring for a TV audience and media organizations are conscious of the
necessity to keep the attention of an increasingly fickle audience. This is
even more pertinent for a radio audience where the host would have to
read a very long list of methodological details. However, stories produced
for a digital platform—in this case cbc.ca—provides the opportunity to
 2 MEDIA POLLS: THE GALLUP LEGACY 37

publish the necessary details. Hence, in today’s media environment, eval-

uating the rigor of the methodological coverage of poll findings needs to
be done from a holistic—all platforms—perspective rather than in isola-
tion. It is unfair to expect that a media organization would negatively
impact the newsworthiness of a story by drowning the viewers, readers,
and listeners in methodological minutia. But by using all platforms, it is
possible to be thorough. Accordingly, based on the experience of “On
Guard for Me,” I suggest the following framework:

1. Coverage should always include:

A. the name of the polling firm who conducted the poll;
B. the dates and methods of data collection; and
C. the sample size and the wording of the questions covered in the
story.
2. Extended Coverage should mention—probably in an online story—
the following details:
D. overall sample design
E. details and discussion about subsamples of the population inter-
viewed
F. discussion of sampling error
G. discussion of other polling results for context.

It is unnecessary to cover some other details such as:

H. A copy of the full text and interviewer instructions/programming

for all questions included in this survey release;
I. Source of the sample for this survey, and by what method were
respondents selected;
J. The universe of people to be surveyed and confidence in sample
representativeness;
K. If surveys were conducted by telephone, what percentage of inter-
views was conducted via calls to cell phones? If surveys were
conducted online, were respondents allowed to complete the
survey via mobile browsers, and approximately what share of your
respondents did so?
L. If surveys were conducted by telephone, how many callback
attempts did a sampled number receive before being retired?
38 A. TURCOTTE

M. If surveys were not conducted by a live interviewer, what do you do

to ensure your respondents are real people and are paying attention
to the survey?
N. If your survey has been weighted, please list the weighting variables
and the source of the weighting parameters. If your survey has
not been adjusted for education, please explain why and provide
an unweighted frequency for education distribution among your
respondents.
O. Is there a minimum unweighted sample size you require before
releasing any subset estimates, and if so, what is it?

The above-proposed framework emerged from a practical experience.

Through the process, I was able to understand the competing interests
between methodological rigor, journalistic integrity, and media realities.
My proposed framework is more likely to be adopted and followed since
it is detailed enough and something media organizations can abide by
and follow without jeopardizing the appeal of a media story. A simple
framework will provide the necessary clarity to make sure that media
polls continue to occupy the prominent place they have in the media and
societal landscape.

Appendix: CBC The National:

Preelection Study “On Guard For Me”
3000N Gen population with an additional oversample of 1500N:
Total sample 4500, 20 minutes complete time
Quotas for:
Education (less than high school)
Age (18–20; 21–25; 26–30; 31–35)
Additional Oversample for:
First-time voters 500N
Indigenous 500N
New Canadians 500N
Part 1 Introduction: The Political Environment
As you may know, there will be a Canadian Federal Election on
October 21, 2019. What do you think will be the most important issue
for you personally in that election?
 2 MEDIA POLLS: THE GALLUP LEGACY 39

OPEN END
Based on what you know, which of the following federal political parties—
ROTATE—the federal Liberals, the federal NDP, the federal Conserva-
tives, the Green Party, the People’s Party, Other [QUEBEC: The Bloc
Quebecois]—would be best to handle this issue?

Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Green
Bloc (Quebec only)
People’s Party
Other/Independents
Would not vote
Don’t know

Based on what you know, which of the following federal political

parties—ROTATE—the federal Liberals, the federal NDP, the Conser-
vatives, The Green Party, the People’s Party, Other [QUEBEC: The Bloc
Quebecois]—would be the worst to handle this issue?

Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Green
Bloc (Quebec only)
People’s Party
Other/Independents
Would not vote
Don’t know

If a FEDERAL election were held today, which of the following—

ROTATE—the federal Liberals, the federal Conservatives, the federal
NDP, the Green Party, The People’s Party Other [QUEBEC: The Bloc
Quebecois]—would you be most likely to vote for?

Conservative
Liberal
Other documents randomly have
different content
a patch on the lower back ashy-grey; flanks bright rufous; legs grey;
band on front of the thighs black; heel bright rufous.

Other examples have a mark over each eyebrow, the fore-limbs

nearly to the hands, the hinder part of the thighs, the legs from the
knee to the ankle, and the whole under side iron-grey; the ankles
and hind part of the heels white, yellow below. (Indris variegatus,
Gray.)

All stages between the forms here described and complete albinos
are known; so that the various differences observed prove them to
be only individual variations of the same species.

Distribution.—The Endrina is confined to the woods looking

eastward, on the two high ranges along the eastern coast, between
the Bay of Antongil on the north and the River Masora on the south.

Habits.—The "Endrina," "Bàbakòto," or "Amboanala" (Dog of the

Forest), as the natives variously name this species, has the same
habits as the Sifakas. It is the largest of the Lemurs, and is diurnal.
It derives its appellation of "Dog of the Forest" from the doleful,
dog-like howls which it utters. In this habit it differs, therefore, from
most of the other groups (except the True Lemurs), which are, as a
rule, rather silent. Its powerful voice is due to the distensible
resonator which it possesses in its laryngeal pouch, described above.
Essentially diurnal, the Endrinas live in small companies, and feed
only on vegetable diet. The hook-like fingers of their hands are
better adapted for climbing than for prehension, and much of their
food is, indeed, seized by the mouth. They are entirely arboreal, and
move about the trees in an erect position, rarely coming to the
ground. The "Bàbakòto" is held in great veneration by most of the
native tribes.
M. Pollen gives several other particulars of these Lemurs, and of the
curious notions of the Malagasy respecting them. Their native name
is "Bàbakòto," literally "Father-child" (or "boy"), not "Indri," as stated
by Sonnerat, who discovered the species. Indri, or Indry, is a
Malagasy word meaning "lo!" or "behold!" and was probably
mistaken by him and other Europeans for the vernacular name of
the animal when the natives exclaimed, "Indry izy!" ("There he is!").
Dr. A. Vinson says that, in passing through the great Eastern forest,
he was assailed for two days by the incessant clamour of these
Lemurs, which seem to keep together in large companies, but are
invisible in the dense foliage. The natives have a superstitious
veneration for these animals, and consider them as sacred. They
believe that their ancestors change after death into Bàbakòto, and
that the trees where these animals live supply infallible remedies
against otherwise incurable diseases. The people say that it is very
dangerous to kill these Lemurs with spears, because if a spear is
hurled against one of them it seizes the spear in its flight without
being itself hurt, and in its turn stabs with certain aim those
attacking it. They also relate that when the female has borne a
young one, she takes the little creature in her arms and tosses it to
her mate, who is seated on a neighbouring tree, and that he throws
it back to the female. If the little one does not fall to the ground
after being subjected to this exercise for a dozen times, the parents
bring it up with the greatest care; but, if the contrary event
happens, they abandon it, not even troubling to pick it up. In certain
parts of Madagascar, says M. Pollen, the people employ the
Bàbakòto in chasing birds, and they say that it renders as good
service as a Dog. These animals, although principally fruit-eaters, do
not disdain small birds, which they catch with much skill, in order to
eat their brains.

This Lemuroid is probably the best known to travellers in

Madagascar, at least by ear, as no one can travel along the most
frequented route in the island, that from Tamatave to Antananarivo,
without often hearing the cries of these animals as he passes
through the great forest. They are not often seen, but their long
drawn-out melancholy cries are frequently heard, a strange wailing
sound, as if of people in distress, or children crying. Dr. Vinson says
that the Bètànimèna tribe let these animals at liberty if they find
them in captivity, and give them burial should they find them dead.
They relate that a certain tribe, at war with its neighbours, took
refuge in the forests; their enemies, in pursuing them, led by the
sound of human voices, as they supposed, found before them a
troop of Bàbakòto, at whose appearance they were struck with
terror. They fled, persuaded that the fugitives had been changed into
beasts. These, on the other hand, vowed eternal gratitude to the
Lemurs who had saved them, and have ever since religiously
refrained from injuring them in any way.

EXTINCT LEMUROIDEA.
On a former page (anteà, p. 13), attention was drawn to the
interrupted distribution of the Lemurs, and to their present restricted
range to the tropical and sub-tropical regions of Africa, of
Madagascar, and of part of the mainland and of the islands of the
Asiatic continent. In times geologically not very remote, they were
inhabitants of both worlds.

The earliest appearance of the Primates in time is at the beginning

of the Tertiary period. Lemuroids, some of them of a more or less
primitive type, then lived in Europe in the Lower Eocene period. In
the higher beds of the same epoch (to which the fresh-water
deposits of the London clay of England, the Plastic clay of France,
and the prolific Wasatch beds of Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado of
America belong) undoubted Lemurs are represented by many
genera, which in the Middle Eocene attained to a great development.
In the Upper Eocene of Europe many distinctively Lemuroid genera
(Adapis, Microchærus, &c.) "formed," as Zittel remarks, "a very
characteristic element of the fauna; they are connected with old
Tertiary fore-runners, and combine features of the existing Lemurs
and true Apes." The presence of these heat-loving animals in such
northern latitudes undoubtedly indicates the existence there of a
climate more genial at that epoch than now. In the corresponding
period in North America remains have been less plentifully found;
but for the most part the genera are representatives of those of the
European beds.

In strata of Oligocene and older Miocene age no Lemuroid remains

have come to light in Europe, and they are represented by only one
or two doubtful forms in America. After that date they apparently
vanished from the New World and from the northern portions of the
Old.

Many of these extinct Lemuroids so combine the characters of the

Insectivora and the Ungulata (or hoofed animals), with those of their
own Sub-order, that it is often extremely difficult, even impossible,
sometimes, to determine to which Order they really belong, owing to
a blending of characters due to their common origin. The Upper
Eocene forms present many affinities with the South American
Capuchin Monkeys (Cebidæ). Dr. Forsyth Major is of opinion,
however, that they are more highly, and not (as is generally
believed) less specialised than those now living, which appear to
have been the subject of retrogressive development.

The species to be noticed below are some of the more important of

those which have been ascertained to belong to the present Sub-
order.

No remains assignable with certainty to the families Chiromyidæ or

Tarsiidæ, have as yet been discovered. The first form to be
mentioned belongs to a family which has now no living
representatives.

FAMILY MEGALADAPIDÆ.
This family has recently been established by Dr. Forsyth Major, for a
fossil species represented by the greater portion of a large cranium
and part of its lower jaw, found in a marsh at Amboulisatra, on the
south-west coast of Madagascar. This species is the only
representative of the single genus of the family.

GENUS MEGALADAPIS.
 Megaladapis, Forsyth Major, Phil. Trans., vol. 185 B, p. 15
(1894).

The cranium, about 10 inches long, indicates an aged animal three

or four times as long as the common Cat, which is an enormous size
as compared with any living Lemur. Brain-case straight, narrow,
short, low, and situated at a higher level than the facial region; an
enormous lateral development of the region between the eyes;
orbits small in diameter, communicating freely with the temporal
fossa, protruding outwards and forwards, and surrounded by a
thickened ring; facial region elongate and bent upward; palate
convex downwards from front to back; ridges for attachment of the
temporal muscles uniting in a great central crest; frontal bones
constricted behind the orbits; maxillary bones behind the molar
teeth greatly inflated by air-cavities; the two halves of the lower jaw
ossified together. In the upper jaw the pre-molars have one outer
and one inner cusp, and the molars one internal and two external
cusps, the former being deeply separated from the hind outer cusp,
and joined by a ridge to the front outer cusp. In the lower jaw, the
posterior pre-molar has one outer cusp, a fore and hind inner cusp
(each joined by a crescent to the outer cusp), and a central inner
cusp; the three molars have two outer and three alternating inner
cusps, and to the outer side a basal cingulum; the posterior molar
has a strongly cusped heel.

Megaladapis madagascariensis, Forsyth Major, the only species of the

genus, presents many marsupial and insectivorous characters and
features which show some approach towards the South-American
Howlers (Alouatta), a specialisation "not in the least," according to
Dr. Major, "implying a near relationship, but probably only an
adaptation to a corresponding function" implied in the "vocal organs
of unusual size," which, he believes, Megaladapis to have possessed.
Lemurine characters, however, predominate. In the shape of its
molars it is related to Lepidolemur, and still more closely to
Microcebus and Chirogale, while by the characters of its inter-orbital
region it approaches to the Sifakas (Propithecus) and the extinct
Adapis.

The small diameter of its orbits suggests, according to Dr. Major, that
in habits this extinct giant Lemur was diurnal; and from the
conformation of its lower jaw "there exists," continues the same
distinguished investigator, "a strong assumption that, as in Alouatta,
it was provided with vocal organs of unusual size."

The age of this Howling Lemur, estimated either geologically or by

years, cannot be of very great antiquity. Its remains were found
associated with those of the giant Moa-like bird, the Æpyornis, of
Tortoises and Hippopotami, all now extinct, and of Crocodiles still
living in the interior lakes of the island. Some of these animals were
certainly contemporaneous with the now vanished Dodo and the
large flightless Rail (Aphanapteryx), both of which were seen alive
by Europeans little more than two centuries ago, and it is not
improbable that Megaladapis may have been living in the
Madagascar forests at the same period.

FAMILY LEMURIDÆ (anteà, p. 22).

In this family, and in its sub-family Lemurinæ (because of its
affinities with Hapalemur), has to be included a large extinct species
from Nossi Vey, in North-west Madagascar. Its fossil remains were
recently described (P. Z. S., 1893, p. 532), but not named by Dr.
Forsyth Major. They will prove, he believes, when more fully known,
to be the type of a new genus. At present, however, owing to their
incomplete state, it is not possible to describe the species fully. "The
Lemuroid nature of the specimen is at once demonstrated by the
great elevation and downward bending of the post-orbital processes
... showing that the osseous ring of the orbit was complete."
Unusual for a Lemuroid is the very strong post-orbital constriction of
the frontals, a character, however, seen in Adapis, an Eocene
European form, and in Hapalemur. With the latter it agrees in the
voluminous cranial and very short facial portion, and the "cuttingly
sharp" inferior margin of its post-orbital process. Seen from the side,
this fossil cranium is almost vertically truncated behind, as in the
skull of Alouatta. The region between the eyes is vaulted by
underlying air-chambers.

FAMILY ANAPTOMORPHIDÆ.
This family includes certain fossil forms of Lower Eocene age from
the phosphatic deposits of Quercy in France, the Wasatch strata of
Wyoming, and the Puerco beds in New Mexico. Their dental formula
2 1
is the same as that of existing Lemurs, namely I (2-1) , C (1-0) , P (2-3)
(2-3) , M
3
3. In some of the genera there is a tendency to develop, as Cope
has pointed out, large cutting teeth in the position of incisors, "thus
approaching the Aye-Aye." The posterior pre-molars are more simple
than the anterior true molar, a character which indicates some
relationship to the Mouse-Lemurs (Chirogale). The mastoidal or
posterior portion of the ear-capsules, and the neighbouring
squamosal region of the cranium are swollen, as among the Galagos.

GENUS MICROCHÆRUS.

Microchærus, Wood, Lond. Geol. Journ., i., p. 5 (1846).

Heterohyus, Gerv., Zool. et Pal. Fr., p. 202, pl. 35, fig. 14.
Necrolemur, Filhol, C. R., lxxxvii., p. 1112 (1873); id. Ann. Sc.
Geol., viii., p. 55, pl. iv., figs. 213-217 (1877).

This genus is distinguished from all other Lemurs by "the angle of

the mandible being produced into a large hook-like flange." (Flower
and Lydekker.) The orbits are large, indicating a nocturnal animal;
the inter-orbital space is wide, and distinguishes it from Loris. The
dental formula is I 21 , C 11 , P 33 , M 33 . The canine teeth are not
prominent; the anterior lower pre-molar is only slightly developed; a
gap separates the anterior and the median upper pre-molars.

This genus is represented by five species. Microchærus antiquus

(Filhol) is of very small size, and has many affinities with Galago, as
exhibited in the well-preserved cranium that has been recovered
from the Phosphorites of Central France. The two lower molars have
only one root. M. erinaceus, Wood, from the Upper Eocene of
Hampshire; M. edwardsi (Filhol), from Central France, a species larger
than M. antiquus, presents dental characters similar to the Galagos
and the Mouse-Lemurs; M. parvulus (Filhol), and M. zitteli
(Schlosser), are both from the Quercy Phosphorites of France; while
M. armatus is from the Eocene of Alsace, and M. (Cryptopithecus)
siderolithicus from the Bonerg of Frohnstellen.

GENUS MIXODECTES.

Mixodectes, Cope, Proc. Amer. Phil. Soc., p. 447 (1883); id., Rep.
U. S. Geol. Surv., iii., p. 240, pl. xxiv. f, figs. 1 and 2.

The members of this genus, founded on fragmentary mandibles from

the Puerco (Lower Eocene) strata of New Mexico, have a large front
tooth "issuing from the ramus at the symphysis like a rodent incisor,
the second tooth being similar but smaller and posterior and
external to the first." The genus is represented by two species, M.
pungens, Cope, and M. crassiusculus, Cope.

GENUS CYNODONTOMYS.

Cynodontomys, Cope, Palæont. Bull., p. 151 (1882); id., Rep. U.

S. Geol. Surv., iii., p. 243, pl. xxiv., fig. 2.
This genus contains but one species, founded on several lower jaws
disinterred from the Wasatch beds in the Big-Horn Bad-lands, in
Northern Wyoming. The lower incisors, or perhaps, canines, are very
large and close to the line of union of the two halves of the jaw; the
molars have three cusps in front and a heel behind. The dental
characters of the genus "resemble considerably those of
Anaptomorphus and Necrolemur [Microchærus] but the large size of
the inferior canine or incisor tooth distinguishes it from both."
(Cope.) C. latidens, Cope, is the only species.

GENUS OMOMYS.

Omomys, Leidy, Journ. Acad. Nat. Sci. Philad., vii., p. 408

(1869).

This genus was established for the first Mammalian fossil—a lower
jaw—described from the Bridger-beds as O. carteri. The posterior
lower molar has cusps in opposing pairs; pre-molars, three in
number, the two anterior one-cusped, the posterior two-cusped. The
chin was longer and less rounded than in Anaptomorphus.

GENUS ANAPTOMORPHUS.

Anaptomorphus, Cope, Proc. Amer. Phil. Soc., 1872, p. 554; id.,

Rep. U. S. Geol. Surv., iii., p. 245, pl. xxiv. e, fig. 1; xxv., fig.
10.

This genus was founded by Cope on an almost entire cranium

discovered in the Bridger (Eocene) beds of the upper Valley of Green
river, and on other remains from what is known as the Wasatch
formation of the Big-Horn Basin in Wyoming Territory, in North
America. The external upper incisor is small and set close to the
small canine; the pre-molars have each a large external and a
smaller internal cusp; the true molars are wide and have one
internal and two external cusps. In the lower jaw the two anterior
molars are four-cusped, with a transverse ridge between the anterior
pair, and an oblique ridge between the hind inner, and the front
outer, cusp; the posterior is three-cusped and has a heel. The orbits
are enclosed, as in typical Lemurs. Not less typical characters are the
position of the lachrymal foramen, external to the orbit, and the
unossified halves of the lower jaw. "Its dental formula (I 22 , C 11 , P 22 , M
3
3) agrees only with the Indrisinæ. But no known Lemuridæ possess
anterior lobes and cusps on all the pre-molars, so that in this
respect, as in the number of its teeth, this genus resembles the
higher Monkeys, the Simiidæ and Hominidæ, more than any existing
member of the family.... It has ... a number of resemblances to
Tarsius, which is, perhaps, its nearest ally among the Lemurs,
although that genus has three pre-molars.... There is no doubt but
that the genus Anaptomorphus is the most Simian Lemur yet
discovered...." (Cope.)

The species included in this genus are A. æmulus (Cope), which did
not exceed the size of a Marmoset or a Red Squirrel, and had short
erect incisors; A. homunculus (Cope), a species founded on a cranium
without a lower jaw, with the orbits not so large as in Tarsius, and
the skull wide behind the eyes. "The A. homunculus was nocturnal in
its habits," according to Professor Cope, "and its food was like that
of the smaller Lemurs of Madagascar and the Malayan islands. Its
size is a little less than that of the Tarsius tarsius."

Two other insufficiently characterised genera, both considered to be

primitive Lemuroids, are Plesiadapis, Gervais, containing the species
P. remensis, P. gervaisi, P. tournesarti, and P. daubrei, from the Lower
Eocene strata of Rheims, which have five-cusped lower molars, and
enlarged upper and lower incisors; and Protoadapis, Lemoine, with
one or two high front cusps, and a low heel to its three pre-molars;
the anterior molars with two pairs of opposite cusps, the posterior
molar with a fifth cusp on the hind border. P. crassicuspidens,
Lemoine, and P. recticuspidens, Lemoine, are its two species.

FAMILY ADAPIDÆ.
The different species associated together under this family are
abundantly known from the Upper Eocene of France, England, and
North America. They are remarkable in having an extra pre-molar in
both jaws, the dental formula being I 22 , C 11 , P 44 , M 33 .

GENUS ADAPIS.

Adapis, Cuvier, Ossem. Foss. (2) iii., p. 265 (1822); Flower, Ann.
and Mag. N. H., xvii., (1876), p. 323.
Palæolemur, Delfort., Act. de la Soc. Linn. Bord., xxix., pp. 87-
95, pl. 5 (1873); id. C. R., lxxvii., p. 64 (1873).
Aphelotherium, Gervais, Zool. et Pal. Franç. (1), ii., Exp. 34
(1848-52).
Cænopithecus, Rütim, Denksch. Schw. Ges. Nat., xix., p. 88
(1862).
Notharctus, Leidy, Geol. Surv. Mont., p. 364 (1871).
? Thinolestes, Marsh, Am. Jour. Sci., 1872 (2), p. 205.
? Telmalestes, Marsh, op. cit., p. 206.

"The general form of the cranium," to quote Sir W. Flower, "the large
size and anterior direction of the orbits, the small and narrow muzzle
... show its affinity to the Lemurine animals, and especially to the
African forms. The whole skull, however, is more depressed than in
the slow Lemurs and Galagos; the orbits are smaller, the brain cavity
relatively smaller and more constricted behind the orbits, and the
muscular ridges more developed."... The lower jaw is deep and
stout. The posterior upper pre-molar is very similar to a true molar.
"The upper molar teeth are nearly equal in size, and have nearly
square crowns, with four distinct cusps, one at each angle, rather
obliquely placed"; the hind inner cusp of the posterior molar
inconspicuous. The lower molars have two pairs of obliquely placed
cusps, connected by transverse ridges, anterior and posterior, with
an oblique ridge running forwards and inwards from the outer hind
cusp. The hindmost lower pre-molar has an internal cusp; the lower
incisors have upright spatulate crowns like those of true Apes.

Several species of this genus have been described. Adapis Parisiensis

(with the synonyms of Aphelotherium duvernoyi, Gervais, and
Palæolemur betillei, Delfortrie) is one of the best known, and its
remains have been found in Upper Eocene strata at Egerkingen, in
Switzerland, at Sainte Néboule de Béduer, and in the Paris Gypsum,
in France, as well as in England. It "more nearly resembles the Indo-
African Lemurs, and not those of the island of Madagascar, or of the
extreme east, having no near relationship with the Tarsius, the Aye-
Aye, or the Indris, and not much with the true Lemurs." (Flower.)
From the Eocene of Switzerland comes A. lemuroides. Adapis magna
(Filhol) is larger than the preceding species, has a larger face, and a
greater constriction between the cerebral and facial regions of the
skull. It has been found in the phosphatic deposits at Raynal, in
France. Adapis angustidens (Filhol), from the Quercy Phosphates of
France, is distinguished by the structure of its molars, and by the
great size of its two anterior pre-molars. A. tenebrosus (Leidy) has a
large lower canine. A. minor (Filhol) is an additional species.

GENUS TOMITHERIUM.

Tomitherium, Cope, Vert. Bridg. Eoc. Wyom., p. 2, 1872.

Limnotherium, Marsh, Am. Journ. Sci., 1871, ii., p. 43 (in part).

This genus, which is allied to Adapis, is characterised by having its

lower incisors with cutting edges; the first and second lower pre-
molars with one root; the third with one cusp and a posterior heel,
and the fourth an interior lateral cusp in addition. The lower true
molars have two anterior cusps (the inner being double) and two
posterior. The thigh is long and the knee free from the body as in
the Anthropoidea, the hand capable of turning freely upwards at the
wrist; the hind-limbs longer than the fore-, and "the details of the
lower jaw, which is co-ossified in the centre, and teeth similar to that
of the lower Monkeys." The remains of the only known species, T.
rostratum (Cope), which was about the size of the Capuchin Monkey
(Cebus capucinus) of Brazil, were found in the Bridger (Eocene) beds
in an isolated spot on Blacks' fork, Wyoming.

GENUS MENOTHERIUM.

Menotherium, Cope, Bull. U. S. Geol. Surv. Territ., 1874, i., p. 22.

Laopithecus, Marsh, Am. Journ. Sei., 1875, i., p. 240.

This genus was established on an under jaw from the Lower

Miocene White-river beds of Nebraska. Its molars are successively
larger from anterior to posterior; the two pairs of cusps are obliquely
opposite, the hinder pair longer than the front pair, and presenting a
strong cingulum. Its discovery was the first indication of Lemurs in
the Miocene of the United States. M. robustum, Marsh, was as large
as a Coati; and M. lemurinum (Cope) about the size of a domestic Cat.

GENUS PELYCODUS.

Pelycodus, Cope, Cat. Verteb. Eoc. New Mex., p. 13 (1875).

Tomitherium, Cope, Rep. U. S. Geol. Surv. W. of 100° mer., ii., p.
135 (in part).
Lemuravus, Marsh, Amer. Journ. Sci., 1875, i., p. 239.

This genus is characterised by the second pre-molar having always

two roots; the anterior has one root and the third three; the
posterior has one external and one internal cusp. Of the true molars,
all have two external cusps; the anterior and median have two
internal cusps and the posterior has only one; of the lower teeth the
posterior pre-molar has an internal cusp and a heel; the next one
has no internal cusp; the molars often have the fore inner cusps
double; the posterior molar has a strong heel. This genus contains
three species, all described by Cope (P. jarrovii, P. tutus, P.
frugivorus), with the hind inner cusp of the upper molars distinct
from the heel; and P. angulatus, in which that cusp is small and is on
the heel. Their remains have been found in the Lower Eocene
(Wasatch) beds of New Mexico. P. helveticus has been described from
the Upper Eocene of Egerkingen.

GENUS MICROSYOPS.

Microsyops, Leidy, Proc. Acad. Nat. Sci., Philad., 1872, p. 20.

Limnotherium, Marsh, Amer. Journ. Sci., 1871, ii., p. 43 (in part).

This genus is easily distinguished, as Cope points out in his

sumptuously illustrated "Vertebrata of the Tertiary Formations of the
West," by the absence of the first (anterior) inferior pre-molar, and
probably of the superior first pre-molar also. The canine tooth of the
lower jaw is very large. The posterior pre-molar has an internal cusp,
and the molars two front inner cusps. There are three species,
distinguished chiefly by size, M. spierianus (Cope), very small; M.
elegans (Marsh), the largest, with seven teeth succeeding the canine
in the lower jaw; and M. scottianus (Cope); all from the Eocene of
Wyoming.

GENUS HYOPSODUS.

Hyopsodus, Leidy, Proc. Acad. Nat. Sci., Philad., 1870, p. 109.

The present genus is recognised by the front inner cusp of the lower
molars being single, and their heel presenting a cusp at its inner
hind angle (except in H. acolytus). Of the upper pre-molars, the
median and posterior have an internal cusp; and the molars have
two outer and two inner cusps with two small intermediate
tubercles. There are six species known, from the Wasatch and
Bridger beds of Wyoming and New Mexico, of which H. acolytus is
distinguished by having the heel of the anterior and median lower
molars without an inner hind cusp. Professor Cope remarks that
though the species of this genus are not numerous, individuals of
some of them are exceedingly common in the Eocene beds of
Wyoming. H. paulus and H. minusculus, Leidy, H. vicarius and H.
powellianus, Cope, with H. jurensis, Rutimeyer, from the Upper Eocene
of Egerkingen, are the best known species.

The genera Indrodon, Cope, from the Lower Eocene Puerco

formation of New Mexico, with three cusped upper and four cusped
lower molars; Opisthotomus, Apheliscus, and Sarcolemur, Cope, from
the Wasatch of Wyoming; Hipposyus, Leidy; Bathrodon, Mesacodon, and
Stenacodon, Marsh, from the Middle Eocene Bridger beds; are of
doubtful affinities.

II. THE MONKEYS AND APES—SUB-ORDER ANTHROPOIDEA.

This Sub-order, though containing animals of much higher
organisation than the Lemuroidea, embraces species presenting
many different grades of intelligence, and ranging in size from the
Pigmy Marmoset, not larger than a small Kitten, to the ponderous
Gorilla and the genus Homo. In external characters the Monkeys and
Apes have in general a shorter and less Dog-like nose than the
Lemurs, thin lips and a more distinct face; while their eyes, situated
on the face, are invariably directed forwards, and never outwards, or
to the side. The opening of their nostrils is either outward (as in
those inhabiting the New World), or downwards (as in the bulk of
the Old World species). All of them are covered with hair; the tail
may be long, short, or wanting. The proportions of the fore-limbs to
the hind- vary much in the different groups. The great toe, as well
as the thumb, is (except in a few species) fully opposable, so that in
the majority of members of the Sub-order, the foot is as good a
prehensile organ as the hand. From this circumstance comes the
designation, Quadrumana, or "four-handed," so often applied to
these animals. In a few species the thumb is rudimentary or absent,
but the fore-finger, the absence of which characterised some of the
Lemurs, is always present and well developed, and the
corresponding digit in the foot (except in the Marmosets) has a flat
nail instead of a claw. The mammæ of the Anthropoidea are always
situated on the breast. If we examine the structures underlying the
skin, we find that in the skull the orbits are entirely shut in by a bony
wall, so that the finger cannot be passed into the temporal
depression behind, as could be done in the Lemurine skull, and that
the lachrymal foramen opens within the cavity for the eye. In the
present Sub-order there is no toothless space in the mid-line of the
upper jaw, the incisor teeth being set close together; but there is
always a vacuity, except in Man, between the incisors and the canine
tooth. The lower canine teeth do not resemble in form the incisors,
nor do they protrude horizontally, as in the Lemurs. The two halves
of the lower jaw are always co-ossified together, when the animal is
full grown. The humerus, or arm-bone, never has an entepicondylar
foramen on the inner side of its lower portion, and the bones of the
fore-arm (the ulna and radius) are never ossified together, nor are
those of the lower leg (the tibia and fibula); so that there is perfect
freedom for every movement necessary for grasping and walking, or
for rotating the hand or foot on the wrist and ankle.

With regard to the brain, the anthropoid cerebrum, or fore-brain, is

greatly convoluted, and differs from that of the Lemurs by its
proportionately larger size, the cerebellum, or hind-brain, being as a
rule entirely covered by it.

The uterus and structures for the nutrition of the young prior to birth
differ greatly in this Sub-order from the conditions existing in the
Lemuroidea. The uterus is a simple and not a two-horned sac, and
its inner layer, in which the fœtal and maternal structures
intermingle during the growth of the embryo, is shed after the birth
of the young, which is not the case in the Lemurs.

"The resemblance of Monkeys to Man," says Mr. Darwin, "is greatly

caused by the relative position of the features of the face. The eyes
are arched over; they are separated by a long nose, the end of
which in some is very human. The mouth is not carried back, but
occupies the same general position as in Man, and the forehead, so
often wrinkled, is usually prominent and like that of a child. The
likeness is increased by the fact that anger, sorrow, pleasure, and
satisfaction, are displayed by the Monkey by nearly similar
movements of the muscles and skin, chiefly above the eyebrows and
round the mouth. Some few expressions are indeed almost the
same, as in the weeping of certain kinds of Monkeys, and in the
laughing noise made by others, during which the corners of the
mouth are drawn backward and the eyelids wrinkled. In Man the
nose is much more prominent than in most Monkeys; but we may
trace the commencement of an aquiline curvature in the nose of the
Hoolock Gibbon, and this in the Great-nosed Monkey (Nasalis
larvatus) is carried to a ridiculous extreme."

In regard to the distribution of the Anthropoidea, excluding Man

(Hominidæ), two families (the Hapalidæ and Cebidæ) are known
only from the New World; and two others (the Cercopithecidæ and
Simiidæ) are exclusively confined to the Old World. No fossil remains
of Eastern Hemisphere forms have as yet been found in the
Western, or vice versâ, a fact which indicates, doubtless, a
separation of great antiquity between the two groups. The various
species of these families are to be found chiefly in the warmer
regions on both sides of the equator. In the New World some species
range as far north as to 20° N. lat. in Mexico; and South, to 30°
below the equator. In the Eastern Hemisphere, the Old World
species predominate in the tropical and sub-tropical regions; but
certain forms have spread as far north as Thibet and Japan, and
others have made the high altitudes of the Himalaya Mountains their
home; while to the southward they extend in Africa nearly to the
Cape of Good Hope. No indigenous species have ever been found in
New Guinea, Australia, New Zealand, or in the Pacific, or West
Indian Islands.

The Apes of the Old World differ in many important characters from
those of the New. Among the former, as already mentioned, the
openings of the nostrils are directed downwards, as in Man; the nose
is narrow, and the nostrils themselves are set close together, being
separated from each other by a thin septum, or partition, of
cartilage. On this account, they have received the name of
Catarrhine Monkeys (Catarrhini).[7] The New World Monkeys, on the
other hand, have the nose flat and the opening of their nostrils
directed outwards, and the one nostril widely separated from the
other by a broad cartilaginous septum, and they are therefore
designated Platyrrhine Monkeys (Platyrrhini).[8]

The dental formula of the Old World forms is I 22 , C 11 , P 22 , M 33 , making

a total of thirty-two teeth in all; but those of the Western
Hemisphere differ in having invariably three pre-molars, and
sometimes two molars, instead of three, so that they possess either
thirty-two or thirty-six teeth altogether. There is always a gap, or
diastema, in the series of the teeth in front of the upper and behind
the lower canines; the latter teeth being taller than the rest. Many of
the Catarrhine Apes have large cheek-pouches as well as bare
patches, or callosities, often brightly coloured, on the part they apply
to the ground when sitting. None of the Platyrrhine group have
cheek-pouches or callosities, but in many of them the tail is
marvellously prehensile, which is not the case in any of the Old
World species. Again, in the Apes of the Eastern Hemisphere, the
ear-capsules of the skull have an external bony channel (or meatus)
for conveying the sound vibrations into the ear, which is absent in
the American species.

As a rule the Platyrrhine Monkeys have the fore-limbs shorter than

the hind-, and are more quadrupedal than those of the Old World.
Their thumb is also more like a finger than the same digit in their
Eastern brethren.

Of the New World Monkeys, the Hapalidæ, or Marmosets, have

thirty-two teeth, and the Cebidæ, with several sub-families, have
thirty-six teeth. The former include the Marmosets (Hapale) and the
Tamarins (Midas). The latter comprise the Capuchins (Cebus), which
may be taken as the representative genus of American Monkeys, the
Woolly Monkeys (Lagothrix), the Spider-Monkeys (Ateles and the
allied Eriodes), the Howlers (Mycetes), the Sakis (Pithecia and
Brachyurus), the Night-Monkeys or Douroucolis (Nyctipithecus), and
the Squirrel Monkeys or Saimiris (Chrysothrix), with the allied
Callithrix.

"The extensive equatorial forests of the Amazon and Orinoco, and

their tributaries, constitute par excellence the home of the American
Monkeys, but the majority of the genera have a very extended
range, appearing in one or more species throughout the greater
portion of the tract covered by the entire family. This is more
particularly the case with the Sapajous (Cebus), Spider-Monkeys,
Howlers, and the species of Callithrix. The range of the species, on
the other hand, is not unfrequently very sharply defined, as, for
example, when a natural barrier, offering insurmountable obstacles
to further migration, suddenly interposes itself. Examples of such
limitation, as brought about by the dominant water-courses of the
equatorial forests," are numerous. Mr. Wallace cites the case of
certain species of Saki Monkey (Pithecia), found on either side of the
Amazon river, whose range, either southward or northward, appears
to be limited by that river. "The number of species of these American
Apes found in, and north of, the Isthmus of Panama is ten, of which
only one (Ateles vellerosus) extends into Mexico; Mycetes villosus,
the Guatemalan Howler, or 'Mono,' has thus far been found only in
Guatemala and Honduras. It is a little surprising that the range of
only two of the species—the Black-faced Spider-Monkey (Ateles ater)
and one of the Night-Apes (Nyctipithecus vociferans)—extends
beyond Colombia, in South America."

"None of the South American Monkeys appear to pass west of the

Andean chain of mountains south of Ecuador, and even north of the
Peruvian boundary the number of such transgressional forms is very
limited. Indeed, even among the wooded slopes, a habitation along
the basal line of the mountain axis seems to be much preferred. The
greatest altitude at which Monkeys were observed by Tschudi in Peru
was 3,000 feet (Lagothrix humboldti); Ateles ater and Cebus
robustus were found at 2,500 feet. On the other hand, Salvin and
Godman state that in the district of Vera Paz, in Guatemala, the
'Mono' or Howler is most abundant at an elevation of 6,000 feet; and
on the Volcano of Atitlan, in the same country, Mr. Salvin found
troops of the Mexican Spider-Monkey (Ateles vellerosus) in the forest
region of 7,000 feet elevation.

"The range of the Marmosets and Oustitis (Hapalidæ) is nearly co-

extensive with that of the Monkeys proper." (Heilbrin.) The Pigmy
and the Silky Marmoset range as far north as Mexico.

THE MARMOSETS AND TAMARINS. FAMILY HAPALIDÆ.

Of the New World, or Platyrrhine, Apes, the Marmosets come to be
described first, as they have many characters which mark them out
as the lowest of the Anthropoidea, and rank them nearer to the
Lemuroidea than any of the others. They are specially characterised
by having only thirty-two teeth, their dental formula being I 22 , C 11 , P 33
, M 22 . In the actual number of their teeth they agree with their
Eastern relations, but with this difference, that in the latter the pre-
molars are two, and the molars three, above and below on each
side. Their flattened nose, with its wide partition between the
nostrils, and their non-prehensile bushy tails, are also distinguishing
characters. The face is nude, the ears large and sometimes fringed.
Their hind-limbs are proportionately larger and longer than their
fore-limbs, while the nails of their fingers and toes are not flattened
as in the Old World Apes, but all form sharp curved claws, except on
the much shortened great toe. The thumb is elongated and lies
parallel, but quite unopposable to, nor indeed is it separable at will
from, the rest of the digits. The fore-foot, consequently, "is a mere
paw, and the term 'hand' is not applicable to it."... The plantar
surface of the hind-foot "is very long, and the digits are very short.
It follows from these facts that the term 'quadrumanous' is not
applicable in any sense to the Marmosets." (Huxley.) These animals
have no callosities over the ischial (or buttock) bones, and no cheek-
pouches. In their smooth and rounded skull superciliary ridges are
conspicuously absent; and the ear-capsules have, as has been
already observed, no external bony canal for conducting sound
vibrations to the inner ear. The hyoid bone resembles that of the
Lemurs.

This family has been divided into two genera, distinguished from
each other only by a variation in the relative length of their incisor
and canine teeth, which is so slight as to render it doubtful whether
these differences really warrant the generic separation of the two
groups. As, however, the distinction has been maintained by nearly
all writers upon these animals, the arrangement has been followed
here, and the various species of the family will be described as true
Marmosets (Hapale) and Tamarins (Midas). They are most numerous
in the equatorial forests of South America.

THE MARMOSETS. GENUS HAPALE.

 Hapale, Illiger, Prodr. Syst. Mamm., p. 71 (1811).

The members of this genus, which are often kept in captivity as

pets, are very small animals, covered with thick and silky fur, and
having bushy tails, equal to or even exceeding the length of their
body. The head is round, the eyes large and watchful, the face short
and nude, and often abundantly whiskered. The mouth is large; the
ears also large and often fringed, and the neck sometimes clothed,
with long hair. They are distinguished from the Tamarins (Midas) by
having their upper incisor teeth long, narrow, and protruding
outwards and forwards; the incisors of the lower jaw are also very
long, and its canines small and shorter than the incisors, both being
protrusive, as among the Lemurs. The cranial region of the smooth
skull is conspicuously large in comparison with its facial portion, but
the cerebrum shows a low type of organisation, and indicates a
small degree of intelligence in its possessor; it is smooth and almost
devoid of convolutions; the cerebrum, too, unlike that of the
Lemuroidea, completely covers the cerebellum. The orbits are large,
and almost completely walled in from the temporal depression
behind. The stomach in form resembles that found in the higher
groups, but its orifices for the entrance and exit of food are nearer
to each other than in any of the other American Monkeys.

The female produces two or three young at a birth, instead of one,

as is the general rule among the Anthropoidea. The species vary
much in coloration, and some of them resemble the Lemurs in being
ring-tailed.

The Marmosets are all gentle and playful in disposition, and are, on
this account, very largely brought to Europe as pets; but they are
very delicate, and rarely survive long in confinement after the advent
of the Northern winter. They are arboreal, living in troops, and
feeding on insects and fruit, and not disdaining flesh, especially of
fishes, when they can obtain it. They emit a characteristic chirping
noise.

I. THE COMMON MARMOSET. HAPALE JACCHUS.

Simia jacchus, Linn., Syst. Nat., i., p. 40 (1766).

Jacchus pencillatus, Geoffr. Ann. Mus., xix., p. 119 (1812); Spix,
t. c. p. 34, pl. 26 (1823).
Jacchus leucocephalus, Geoffr., t. c. p. 119.
Jacchus vulgaris, Geoffr., t. c. p. 119; Gray, Cat. Monkeys Brit.
Mus., p. 63 (1870, in part).
Hapale jacchus, Kuhl, Beitr., Zool., p. 46 (1820); Schleg., Mus.
Pays Bas, vii., p. 271 (1876).
Hapale albicollis, Spix, Sim. et Vespert. Bras., p. 33, pl. 25
(1823); Geoffr., Cat. Méth. Primates, p. 59 (1851).

Characters.—Head small; eyes gentle; nose flat; face black, with a

white spot in front; ears naked, with a tuft of long hairs on the front
edge of its opening, either black, white, or grey; hair of the sides of
the head elongated; back cross-banded with black and grey, the hair
at the base dusky, reddish-brown in the middle, grey at the top. Tail
banded with black or grey.

Several species have been described under the names of the White-
necked Marmoset (H. albicollis, Spix), the Black-eared Marmoset (H.
penicillata, Kuhl), and the White-headed Marmoset (H. leucocephala,
Kuhl), but Dr. Gray considered these to be only varieties of the
common species, which has sometimes the head and neck greyish-
white, or the head, neck and ear-tufts black, or the head alone
white.

Distribution.—Island of Marajo, at the mouth of the Amazon.

Habits.—The Common Marmoset is an inhabitant of the forests,
feeding chiefly on fruits and insects. It is very susceptible to cold,
and lives but a short time when removed from the tropics, unless
extreme care be taken. Mr. Bates, the author of "The Naturalist on
the River Amazons," states that when in Para, he counted in a short
time thirteen different species of Monkey in semi-domestication in
the city, either at the doors or windows of houses, or in the native
canoes. Two of them he did not meet with afterwards in any other
part of the country. One of these was the well-known Hapale
jacchus, a little creature resembling a Kitten, banded with black and
grey all over the body and tail, and having a fringe of long white
hairs surrounding the ears. It was seated on the shoulder of a young
mulatto girl as she was walking about the street, and he was told
that it had been captured in the island of Marajo.

II. THE WHITE-SHOULDERED MARMOSET. HAPALE HUMERALIFER.

Hapale humeralifer, Geoffr., Ann. Mus., xix., p. 120 (1812);

Bates, Nat. Amaz., ii., p. 55 (1863).

Characters.—Face partly naked, flesh-coloured; ears fringed with

long white hairs. Fore-part of body white; hands grey; hind part
black, with the rump and under side reddish-tawny; tail banded with
grey and black; long white hair on the shoulders. Length about 8
inches, exclusive of the tail.

Distribution.—Mr. Bates says that this species seems to occur only

in the dry woods bordering the Campos in the interior of Brazil.

Habits.—"One would mistake it," writes Mr. Bates in reference to

this rare little Marmoset—the prettiest species of its family—"at first
sight for a Kitten, from its small size, varied colours, and the
softness of its fur. It was a most timid creature, screaming and biting
when anyone attempted to handle it. It became familiar, however,
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