2 Design of Future Cars Architecture
2 Design of Future Cars Architecture
DETC2008-49722
“Yesterday’s automotive innovations have become today’s regulatory demands to reduce vehicle emissions. Future
innovation challenge and some of tomorrow’s more research lies in presenting a methodology for selecting vehicle
progressive ideas” – C. Gorbea architectures early on in the product development cycle that
are best suited for the market going forward based on a
Keywords: Architectural Innovation, Product Architecture manufacturer’s goals and a cost-benefit analysis.
Lifecycle, Architectural Competition
1. INTRODUCTION
ABSTRACT
The automotive industry has entered a new age of
This paper presents how complex system architecture
architectural competition where hybrid cars have emerged as
lifecycles, such as that of cars, follow a similar S-curve shaped
the first mass produced architectural challenge to the century
path as that of individual technological innovations. By
long dominance of the internal combustion engine car. Follow
applying this theory we show that today’s automotive industry
on architectures such as plug-in hybrids and electric cars are
has started a new chapter of architectural competition with
already being presented by automakers as upcoming solutions
similarities to its early history from 1885-1915 when steam,
towards meeting the increasingly stringent future emissions
electric and internal combustion engine cars were competing
laws being developed in the major auto markets worldwide.
to dominate the automotive market. Taking a historical
As an initial step in determining which architectures will be
perspective, we find that firms that organize their development
best suited for the future, we take a closer look at the history
activities to focus on bringing about architectural innovation
that has brought us up to this point. This paper presents that
are better placed in succeeding in the future market until a new
the architectural competition currently underway is very
dominant architecture emerges. The architecture lifecycle
similar to the era of architectural innovation of the early
framework used in this study is constructed by means of a
1900’s. Then as is now, firms that develop methodical ways to
performance index. The index scores the performance of 91
achieve architectural innovation will have the greatest
cars of various architectures based on five overall system
competitive advantage in the future market for automobiles.
variables: power, weight, maximum velocity, fuel efficiency
First, some basic definitions will develop a clear
and the manufacturer’s suggested retail price. Depicting
understanding of what is meant by the terms vehicle
architectural performance over time helps identify periods of
architecture, architectural competition, incremental innovation
architecture competition and dominance where historical
and architectural innovation. Next, an introduction to
agents to change can be identified. The key factors that
innovation lifecycle theory and a historic representation of
brought about architectural competition in the early 1900’s
vehicle architecture performance is presented. We use these
involved a series of innovation breakthroughs in engine and
results to develop an understanding of the current challenges
fuel technologies. Today, a new wave of power train
facing automakers as they look to compete on architecture.
innovations is being triggered primarily by environmental
Finally, we present the authors’ ongoing research on cost-
∗
Research associate and author of correspondence, Phone: +49-89-382-78718, Email: [email protected]
Technology Performance
particular configuration to meet a set of desired functions the Fast
vehicle is to perform as a whole. In this paper, we classify Adoption
vehicle architecture by how a car is propelled. Examples of Decline
vehicle architectures include the internal combustion engine Saturation
car, the hybrid electric car, the electric car and the steam car to
name a few. Early
Architectural competition then refers to differentiating a Adoption
product from others in the market based on architecture.
During the early years of modern automotive history (1890-
1915), cars used to compete primarily on architecture. For
example, electric cars were marketed to female driver’s for
their ease of use and minimal maintenance, whereas internal
combustion engine and steam cars where attractive to male Time
drivers seeking power and speed. Figure 1 Innovation Lifecycle S-Curve
In this paper we apply Henderson and Clark’s typology
framework on innovation (radical, incremental architectural Critics of the S-Curve argue that the theory serves well as
and modular) to the automotive industry. The more important a mental model, but that innovation lifecycles are complex and
concepts of incremental and architectural innovation are subject to many exogenous variables not easily depicted. For
defined below as they apply to our study. example, the model fails to take into account that radical or
Architectural Innovation is the reconfiguration of an disruptive innovations might also strongly alter the shape of
established system in a new way [5]. The system in this case is the innovation diffusion across a population and might start
the car as a whole and the reconfiguration refers to how sub- new s-curves at higher performance levels. Finally, the model
systems made up of vehicle components are linked with each does not account for instances of path dependence that might
other to perform the car’s basic functions. For example, we lock in a certain innovation allowing it to dominate the market
consider the market introduction of the hybrid electric car in as is the case with the internal combustion engine car.
the late 1990’s an architectural innovation, as it presented a
new way to propel the car by using both an electric motor and
an internal combustion engine but keeping the core concepts 4. BUILDING A PERFORMANCE INDEX
The aim of this study is to use the innovation lifecycle
of a basic automobile.
theory commonly used for simple technological advancements
Incremental Innovation – also known as evolutionary
and apply it to system architectures in cars. The performance
innovation refers to the use of a current product as a starting
index created for this study is inspired from vehicle
point for the next generation car product that holds the same
performance measures found in today’s popular press.
architecture. Incremental innovation focuses on optimizing
However, such rating schemes combine both quantitative and
sub-systems by incorporating new technology [3]. This model
qualitative data using a variety of weighting schemes in their
of innovation has been the prevalent method used in the auto
assessments. In creating our own index to rate different
industry ever since the internal combustion engine achieved
market dominance around 1915. It was at this time that the architectures spanning over a century, we were constrained by
the amount of information that could be collected. For
assembly line process used by Ford for the Model-T
revolutionized the market by creating cars in large volumes at example, safety data from standardized crash testing goes back
only two decades, hence it is not a measure that can be
affordable prices.
considered in our case study.
The data collected was compiled from basic vehicle
3. INNOVATION LIFECYCLE THEORY specifications put together by museums, history books, and car
In developing a theory for how architecture lifecycles guides [1]. A database of 911 cars was collected on five basic
behave, we build upon technological innovation theory. parameters: overall power, curb weight, maximum velocity,
Everett Rodgers [8] was one of the first to use the basic form fuel consumption in miles per gallon and the manufacturer’s
of the S-curve in modelling the lifecycle of innovations. An suggested retail price. These parameters remain unweighted in
example of this class of function is the logistics growth our assessment as some parameters have had periods with
function: increased and decreased importance (ie. overall power was a
1 + me − t / τ key parameter in the 60´s yet today its focus has diminished).
P (t ) = a b −t / τ
+c The data collected focuses particularly on passenger street cars
1 + ne (1) 1
The data set is presented in Appendix A. For each architecture type
Where a, b, c, m, n, and τ represent real parameters and (ICE, Steam, EV, Hybrid) figure 2 shows an average value for every year –
P(t) shows the fraction of the population that have adopted the not all 91 data points are shown.
( ) ( )
with respect to a gallon of gasoline as shown in equation 3.
P
Architectural − P + Electric Range (mi ) 33.56 kWh
= ∑i W i W min
( ) ( ) MPGeEV = ×
Performance Index P − P Battery Capacity ( kWh) 1 galGasoline
W max W min (3)
Finally, the fourth category used is the manufacturer’s
Vi − Vmin MPGi − MPGmin
+ + suggested retail price (MSRP). Including a measure of price
Vmax − Vmin MPGmax − MPGmin in the performance index allows awarding a higher score to
those architectures that provide the most performance per
dollar spent. The data on price was adjusted for inflation by
MSRPmax − MSRPi converting all values to 2008 dollars using equation 4. The
÷4
MSRPmax − MSRPmin
inflation rate j used in the calculation was taken to be 3% as a
in 2008US $ approximation of US inflation from 1885-2008 based on
average values of the consumer price index fluctuations
(2)
recorded from 1914-Present by the Federal Bureau of Labour
The index is made up of four items that are measured in a
Statistics [9].
scale from 0 to 1. The sum is then normalized by 4 in order to
come up with an overall score that also lies between 0 and 1
for each car data point. The nomenclature in equation two with MSRP2008i = MSRPyear i × (1 + j ) ( 2008− year i )
max and min refers to the maximum or minimum value for the (4)
particular variable within the database. Each parameter with
the subscript i refer to the particular car considered in the
database shown in appendix A. So in order for a specific data 5. ARCHITECTURAL INNOVATIONS IN THE
point to receive a score of 1, it would have to beat all other AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY (1885-2008)
cars in the database in all four categories, likewise a score of 0 As a first step in understanding how automakers can best
requires that the car’s data is the worst in all categories. select car architectures in the future, we consider more than a
The first category comprises the overall power to weight century of automotive history. Figure 2 shows architecture
ratio. The power to weight ratio is proportional to the performance for automobiles between 1885 and 2008 and the
acceleration the car can achieve as well as its ability for hill cyclical nature of the market. Three basic periods have been
climbing. A high power to weight ratio is a measure of good identified: initial architectural competition, architectural
performance and should be maximized when possible. dominance of the internal combustion engine (ICE) and
The second category is maximum velocity. This measure renewed architectural competition.
is one that helps differentiate early cars from more modern The first time period (1885-1920) shows that three
cars in their performance. During the early years, velocity was different architectures -electric, steam and internal
a key factor that differentiated car architectures. Winning a combustion- where competing to dominate the market. At this
local race with a certain brand car during the weekend would early stage, automakers (large and small) innovated around the
result in increased sales during the subsequent months. This of basic structure of a car but with significantly different
course made racing a very attractive sport for major auto concepts. Hence, the market was exhibiting an age of
manufacturers. From 1885-1905, a top speed of 20mph in a architectural innovations where a variety of power train
city environment was considered plentiful as long distance elements linked in different ways where able to achieve the
driving was not possible due to a lack of a highway function of propelling the car.
infrastructure. In this speed range, architectural competition The second time period (1920-1998) shows a shake out
flourished amongst steam, electric and internal combustion in the market that allowed one architecture to dominate over
cars. Today most cars can comfortably achieve the 80mph all others - the ICE car. Because the entire market adopted this
velocity and can reach upwards of 150mph for sports cars. dominant architecture, the basic risk of not knowing which
The third category is the measure of fuel efficiency in architecture will prevail was completely eliminated. This
miles per gallon, a performance measure where clearly more is allowed manufacturers to focus on innovation at the sub-
better. Fuel consumption was, and still is, a definite measure system level as opposed to the overall system architecture
of car performance. The data on fuel consumption however is level [2].
somewhat tricky, as laws designating standard driving cycles Incremental innovation flourished during this time period.
for measuring fuel consumption did not come about until the The next generation cars developed exhibit changes only in
1970s. This means that the data collected prior to 1974 is more styling and advances in major sub-systems but keeps the same
an estimate than an agreed value. Furthermore, flexible fuel basic architecture concept. During this time of architectural
cars where taken into account by using a miles per gallon dominance, automakers pay little attention to other
equivalent (MPGe) measure. The MPGe measure normalizes architecture alternative power-trains and focus in generating
the energy content of various fuels to that of the energy core competencies that support the optimization of the
content in one gallon gasoline. For example, an electric dominant architecture.
0,9
0,7
?
0,6
Ford introduces the assembly line
reducing the price of ICE cars making
0,5 them afordable to a wider public ?
0,2
Architectural Competition
Steam cars increase in weight and price
0,1
0
1885 1901 1906 1915 1930 1948 1960 1968 1978 1990 1998 2006
Year
The current time period (1998-Present) shows a effect a new technology will have on the overall system will
renewed focus on vehicle architecture. The key historical depend on at which system level the technology being
event that marks the beginning of this new age is the re- implemented is found in. Figure 3 shows a qualitative picture
introduction of electric vehicles in the market and the first of how a shift in a new technology within a car’s component
mass produced hybrid electric cars. At the moment, some auto has a strong effect within its direct sub-system lifecycle but a
manufacturers are trying to shift their focus from incremental lesser effect on the overall system.
innovation to that of architectural innovation. The shift has not
come easy as most organizations have been structured around Overall Vehicle
the major subsystems within the automobile. Most auto
manufacturers have invested in developing their core
competencies in areas specific to the design of internal
combustion engine cars. Now, automakers that compete on Sub-System level
architecture are shifting to build competency in other areas
pertinent to fuel flexible architectures such as hybrid, fuel cell
and electric cars.
The shift towards architectural competition is significant
because it can place established firms in jeopardy of dying if
they are not able to adapt to the new competitive landscape Component Systems level
that is developing [5]. This was the case of most steam car
manufacturers during the 1920s that failed to adapt to market
changes. Firms that develop methodical ways to achieve Figure 3 The effect of technological innovation from
architectural innovations are considered to be better placed in component to the overall system
generating a competitive advantage over firms that stay the
course of incremental innovation in the future market for Take for example the introduction of a new fuel injection
automobiles. technology that allows for a more complete combustion within
6. ANALYSIS OF ARCHITECTURE LIFECYCLES the engine’s cylinder. This technology will have a great impact
In complex technological systems, each contributing sub- on the performance of the engine – its major sub-system - but
system or component technology finds itself in a different a more limited impact on the performance of the overall car’s
stage of maturity in their innovation life cycle [6]. The net architecture.