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PROCESS CONTROL
SYSTEM FAULT
DIAGNOSIS
PROCESS CONTROL
SYSTEM FAULT
DIAGNOSIS
A BAYESIAN APPROACH

Ruben Gonzalez
Fei Qi
Biao Huang
This edition first published 2016
© 2016, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
First edition published in 2016
Registered office
John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, United
Kingdom
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for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at www.wiley.com.
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All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or
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of a competent professional should be sought.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Gonzalez, Ruben, 1985- author. | Qi, Fei, 1983- author | Huang, Biao,
1962- author.
Title: Process control system fault diagnosis : a Bayesian approach / Ruben
Gonzalez, Fei Qi, Biao Huang.
Description: First edition. | Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom : John
Wiley & Sons, 2016. | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2016010340| ISBN 9781118770610 (cloth) | ISBN 9781118770597
(epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Chemical process control–Statistical methods. | Bayesian
statistical decision theory. | Fault location (Engineering)
Classification: LCC TP155.75 .G67 2016 | DDC 660/.2815–dc23 LC record available at
https://lccn.loc.gov/2016010340

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Set in 10/12pt, TimesLTStd by SPi Global, Chennai, India.

1 2016
Contents

Preface xiii

Acknowledgements xvii

List of Figures xix

List of Tables xxiii

Nomenclature xxv

Part I FUNDAMENTALS

1 Introduction 3
1.1 Motivational Illustrations 3
1.2 Previous Work 4
1.2.1 Diagnosis Techniques 4
1.2.2 Monitoring Techniques 7
1.3 Book Outline 12
1.3.1 Problem Overview and Illustrative Example 12
1.3.2 Overview of Proposed Work 12
References 16

2 Prerequisite Fundamentals 19
2.1 Introduction 19
2.2 Bayesian Inference and Parameter Estimation 19
2.2.1 Tutorial on Bayesian Inference 24
2.2.2 Tutorial on Bayesian Inference with Time Dependency 27
2.2.3 Bayesian Inference vs. Direct Inference 32
2.2.4 Tutorial on Bayesian Parameter Estimation 33
2.3 The EM Algorithm 38
2.4 Techniques for Ambiguous Modes 44
2.4.1 Tutorial on Θ Parameters in the Presence of Ambiguous Modes 46
vi Contents

2.4.2 Tutorial on Probabilities Using Θ Parameters 47

2.4.3 Dempster–Shafer Theory 48
2.5 Kernel Density Estimation 51
2.5.1 From Histograms to Kernel Density Estimates 52
2.5.2 Bandwidth Selection 54
2.5.3 Kernel Density Estimation Tutorial 55
2.6 Bootstrapping 56
2.6.1 Bootstrapping Tutorial 57
2.6.2 Smoothed Bootstrapping Tutorial 57
2.7 Notes and References 60
References 61

3 Bayesian Diagnosis 62
3.1 Introduction 62
3.2 Bayesian Approach for Control Loop Diagnosis 62
3.2.1 Mode M 62
3.2.2 Evidence E 63
3.2.3 Historical Dataset D 64
3.3 Likelihood Estimation 65
3.4 Notes and References 67
References 67

4 Accounting for Autodependent Modes and Evidence 68

4.1 Introduction 68
4.2 Temporally Dependent Evidence 68
4.2.1 Evidence Dependence 68
4.2.2 Estimation of Evidence-transition Probability 70
4.2.3 Issues in Estimating Dependence in Evidence 74
4.3 Temporally Dependent Modes 75
4.3.1 Mode Dependence 75
4.3.2 Estimating Mode Transition Probabilities 77
4.4 Dependent Modes and Evidence 81
4.5 Notes and References 82
References 82

5 Accounting for Incomplete Discrete Evidence 83

5.1 Introduction 83
5.2 The Incomplete Evidence Problem 83
5.3 Diagnosis with Incomplete Evidence 85
5.3.1 Single Missing Pattern Problem 86
5.3.2 Multiple Missing Pattern Problem 92
5.3.3 Limitations of the Single and Multiple Missing Pattern Solutions 93
5.4 Notes and References 94
References 94
Contents vii

6 Accounting for Ambiguous Modes: A Bayesian Approach 96

6.1 Introduction 96
6.2 Parametrization of Likelihood Given Ambiguous Modes 96
6.2.1 Interpretation of Proportion Parameters 96
6.2.2 Parametrizing Likelihoods 97
6.2.3 Informed Estimates of Likelihoods 98
6.3 Fagin–Halpern Combination 99
6.4 Second-order Approximation 100
6.4.1 Consistency of Θ Parameters 101
6.4.2 Obtaining a Second-order Approximation 101
6.4.3 The Second-order Bayesian Combination Rule 103
6.5 Brief Comparison of Combination Methods 104
6.6 Applying the Second-order Rule Dynamically 105
6.6.1 Unambiguous Dynamic Solution 105
6.6.2 The Second-order Dynamic Solution 106
6.7 Making a Diagnosis 107
6.7.1 Simple Diagnosis 107
6.7.2 Ranged Diagnosis 107
6.7.3 Expected Value Diagnosis 107
6.8 Notes and References 111
References 111

7 Accounting for Ambiguous Modes: A Dempster–Shafer Approach 112

7.1 Introduction 112
7.2 Dempster–Shafer Theory 112
7.2.1 Basic Belief Assignments 112
7.2.2 Probability Boundaries 114
7.2.3 Dempster’s Rule of Combination 114
7.2.4 Short-cut Combination for Unambiguous Priors 115
7.3 Generalizing Dempster–Shafer Theory 116
7.3.1 Motivation: Difficulties with BBAs 117
7.3.2 Generalizing the BBA 119
7.3.3 Generalizing Dempster’s Rule 122
7.3.4 Short-cut Combination for Unambiguous Priors 123
7.4 Notes and References 124
References 125

8 Making Use of Continuous Evidence Through Kernel Density Estimation 126

8.1 Introduction 126
8.2 Performance: Continuous vs. Discrete Methods 127
8.2.1 Average False Negative Diagnosis Criterion 127
8.2.2 Performance of Discrete and Continuous Methods 129
8.3 Kernel Density Estimation 132
8.3.1 From Histograms to Kernel Density Estimates 132
8.3.2 Defining a Kernel Density Estimate 134
8.3.3 Bandwidth Selection Criterion 135
8.3.4 Bandwidth Selection Techniques 136
viii Contents

8.4 Dimension Reduction 137

8.4.1 Independence Assumptions 138
8.4.2 Principal and Independent Component Analysis 139
8.5 Missing Values 139
8.5.1 Kernel Density Regression 140
8.5.2 Applying Kernel Density Regression for a Solution 141
8.6 Dynamic Evidence 142
8.7 Notes and References 143
References 143

9 Accounting for Sparse Data Within a Mode 144

9.1 Introduction 144
9.2 Analytical Estimation of the Monitor Output Distribution Function 145
9.2.1 Control Performance Monitor 145
9.2.2 Process Model Monitor 146
9.2.3 Sensor Bias Monitor 148
9.3 Bootstrap Approach to Estimating Monitor Output Distribution Function 150
9.3.1 Valve Stiction Identification 150
9.3.2 The Bootstrap Method 153
9.3.3 Illustrative Example 156
9.3.4 Applications 160
9.4 Experimental Example 164
9.4.1 Process Description 164
9.4.2 Diagnostic Settings and Results 167
9.5 Notes and References 170
References 170

10 Accounting for Sparse Modes Within the Data 172

10.1 Introduction 172
10.2 Approaches and Algorithms 172
10.2.1 Approach for Component Diagnosis 173
10.2.2 Approach for Bootstrapping New Modes 176
10.3 Illustration 181
10.3.1 Component-based Diagnosis 184
10.3.2 Bootstrapping for Additional Modes 188
10.4 Application 194
10.4.1 Monitor Selection 195
10.4.2 Component Diagnosis 195
10.5 Notes and References 198
References 199

Part II APPLICATIONS

11 Introduction to Testbed Systems 203

11.1 Simulated System 203
11.1.1 Monitor Design 203
Contents ix

11.2 Bench-scale System 205

11.3 Industrial Scale System 207
References 207

12 Bayesian Diagnosis with Discrete Data 209

12.1 Introduction 209
12.2 Algorithm 210
12.3 Tutorial 213
12.4 Simulated Case 216
12.5 Bench-scale Case 217
12.6 Industrial-scale Case 219
12.7 Notes and References 220
References 220

13 Accounting for Autodependent Modes and Evidence 221

13.1 Introduction 221
13.2 Algorithms 222
13.2.1 Evidence Transition Probability 222
13.2.2 Mode Transition Probability 226
13.3 Tutorial 228
13.4 Notes and References 231
References 231

14 Accounting for Incomplete Discrete Evidence 232

14.1 Introduction 232
14.2 Algorithm 232
14.2.1 Single Missing Pattern Problem 232
14.2.2 Multiple Missing Pattern Problem 236
14.3 Tutorial 238
14.4 Simulated Case 241
14.5 Bench-scale Case 242
14.6 Industrial-scale Case 244
14.7 Notes and References 246
References 246

15 Accounting for Ambiguous Modes in Historical Data:

A Bayesian Approach 247
15.1 Introduction 247
15.2 Algorithm 248
15.2.1 Formulating the Problem 248
15.2.2 Second-order Taylor Series Approximation of p(E|M, Θ) 248
15.2.3 Second-order Bayesian Combination 250
15.2.4 Optional Step: Separating Monitors into Independent Groups 252
15.2.5 Grouping Methodology 253
15.3 Illustrative Example of Proposed Methodology 254
15.3.1 Introduction 254
15.3.2 Offline Step 1: Historical Data Collection 255
x Contents

15.3.3 Offline Step 2: Mutual Information Criterion (Optional) 255

15.3.4 Offline Step 3: Calculate Reference Values 256
15.3.5 Online Step 1: Calculate Support 257
15.3.6 Online Step 2: Calculate Second-order Terms 258
15.3.7 Online Step 3: Perform Combinations 260
15.3.8 Online Step 4: Make a Diagnosis 262
15.4 Simulated Case 265
15.5 Bench-scale Case 268
15.6 Industrial-scale Case 269
15.7 Notes and References 270
References 271

16 Accounting for Ambiguous Modes in Historical Data: A Dempster–Shafer

Approach 272
16.1 Introduction 272
16.2 Algorithm 272
16.2.1 Parametrized Likelihoods 272
16.2.2 Basic Belief Assignments 273
16.2.3 The Generalized Dempster’s Rule of Combination 275
16.3 Example of Proposed Methodology 276
16.3.1 Introduction 276
16.3.2 Offline Step 1: Historical Data Collection 277
16.3.3 Offline Step 2: Mutual Information Criterion (Optional) 277
16.3.4 Offline Step 3: Calculate Reference Value 278
16.3.5 Online Step 1: Calculate Support 279
16.3.6 Online Step 2: Calculate the GBBA 280
16.3.7 Online Step 3: Combine BBAs and Diagnose 283
16.4 Simulated Case 283
16.5 Bench-scale Case 284
16.6 Industrial System 286
16.7 Notes and References 287
References 287

17 Making use of Continuous Evidence through Kernel Density Estimation 288

17.1 Introduction 288
17.2 Algorithm 289
17.2.1 Kernel Density Estimation 289
17.2.2 Bandwidth Selection 289
17.2.3 Adaptive Bandwidths 290
17.2.4 Optional Step: Dimension Reduction by Multiplying Independent
Likelihoods 291
17.2.5 Optional Step: Creating Independence via Independent Component
Analysis 291
17.2.6 Optional Step: Replacing Missing Values 292
17.3 Example of Proposed Methodology 293
17.3.1 Offline Step 1: Historical Data Collection 295
17.3.2 Offline Step 3: Mutual Information Criterion (Optional) 296
Contents xi

17.3.3 Offline Step 4: Independent Component Analysis (Optional) 298

17.3.4 Offline Step 5: Obtain Bandwidths 298
17.3.5 Online Step 1: Calculate Likelihood of New Data 301
17.3.6 Online Step 2: Calculate Posterior Probability 302
17.3.7 Online Step 3: Make a Diagnosis 302
17.4 Simulated Case 302
17.5 Bench-scale Case 304
17.6 Industrial-scale Case 304
17.7 Notes and References 307
References 307
Appendix 308
17.A Code for Kernel Density Regression 308
17.A.1 Kernel Density Regression 308
17.A.2 Three-dimensional Matrix Toolbox 310

18 Dynamic Application of Continuous Evidence and Ambiguous Mode

Solutions 313
18.1 Introduction 313
18.2 Algorithm for Autodependent Modes 313
18.2.1 Transition Probability Matrix 314
18.2.2 Review of Second-order Method 314
18.2.3 Second-order Probability Transition Rule 315
18.3 Algorithm for Dynamic Continuous Evidence and Autodependent Modes 316
18.3.1 Algorithm for Dynamic Continuous Evidence 316
18.3.2 Combining both Solutions 318
18.3.3 Comments on Usefulness 319
18.4 Example of Proposed Methodology 320
18.4.1 Introduction 320
18.4.2 Offline Step 1: Historical Data Collection 320
18.4.3 Offline Step 2: Create Temporal Data 320
18.4.4 Offline Step 3: Mutual Information Criterion (Optional, but
Recommended) 321
18.4.5 Offline Step 5: Calculate Reference Values 322
18.4.6 Online Step 1: Obtain Prior Second-order Terms 322
18.4.7 Online Step 2: Calculate Support 323
18.4.8 Online Step 3: Calculate Second-order Terms 323
18.4.9 Online Step 4: Combining Prior and Likelihood Terms 324
18.5 Simulated Case 325
18.6 Bench-scale Case 326
18.7 Industrial-scale Case 326
18.8 Notes and References 327
References 327

Index 329
Preface

Background
Control performance monitoring (CPM) has been and continues to be one of the most active
research areas in the process control community. A number of CPM technologies have been
developed since the late 1980s. It is estimated that several hundred papers have been published
in this or related areas. CPM techniques have also been widely applied in industry. A number
of commercial control performance assessment software packages are available off the shelf.
CPM techniques include controller monitoring, sensor monitoring, actuator monitoring,
oscillation detection, model validation, nonlinearity detection and so on. All of these tech-
niques have been designed to target a specific problem source in a control system. The common
practice is that one monitoring technique (or monitor) is developed for a specific problem
source. However, a specific problem source can show its signatures in more than one monitor,
thereby inducing alarm flooding. There is a need to consider all monitors simultaneously in a
systematic manner.
There are a number of challenging issues:

1. There are interactions between monitors. A monitor cannot be designed to just monitor one
problem source in isolation from other problem sources. While each monitor may work well
when only the targeted problem occurs, relying on a single monitor can be misleading when
other problems also occur.
2. The causal relations between a problem source and a monitor are not obvious for
industrial-scale problems. First-principles knowledge, including the process flowchart,
cannot always provide an accurate causal relation.
3. Disturbances and uncertainties exist everywhere in industrial settings.
4. Most monitors are either model-based or data-driven; it is uncommon for monitor results
to be combined with prior process knowledge.

Clearly, there is a need to develop a systematic framework, including theory and practical
guidelines, to tackle the these monitoring problems.

Control Performance Diagnosis and Control System Fault Diagnosis

Control systems play a critical role in modern process industries. Malfunctioning components
in control systems, including sensors, actuators and other components, are not uncommon
xiv Preface

in industrial environments. Their effects introduce excess variation throughout the process,
thereby reducing machine operability, increasing costs and emissions, and disrupting final
product quality control. It has been reported in the literature that as many as 60% of industrial
controllers may have some kind of problem.
The motivation behind this book arises from the important task of isolating and diagnosing
control performance abnormalities in complex industrial processes. A typical modern process
operation consists of hundreds or even thousands of control loops, which is too many for plant
personnel to monitor. Even if poor performance is detected in some control loops, because
a problem in a single component can invoke a wide range of control problems, locating the
underlying problem source is not a trivial task. Without an advanced information synthesis
and decision-support system, it is difficult to handle the flood of process alarms to determine
the source of the underlying problem. Human beings’ inability to synthesize high-dimensional
process data is the main reason behind these problems. The purpose of control performance
diagnosis is to provide an automated procedure that aids plant personnel to determine whether
specified performance targets are being met, evaluate the performance of control loops, and
suggest possible problem sources and a troubleshooting sequence.
To understand the development of control performance diagnosis, it is necessary to review
the historical evolution of CPM. From the 1990s and 2000s, there was a significant develop-
ment in CPM and, from the 2000s to the 2010s, control performance diagnosis. CPM focuses
on determining how well the controller is performing with respect to a given benchmark, while
CPD focuses on diagnosing the causes of poor performance. CPM and CPD are of signif-
icant interest for process industries that have growing safety, environmental and efficiency
requirements. The classical method of CPM was first proposed in 1989 by Harris, who used
the minimum variance control (MVC) benchmark as a general indicator of control loop per-
formance. The MVC benchmark can be obtained using the filtering and correlation (FCOR)
algorithm, as proposed by Huang et al. in 1997; this technique can be easily generalized to
obtain benchmarks for multivariate systems. Minimum variance control is generally aggres-
sive, with potential for poor robustness, and is not a suitable benchmark for CPM of model
predictive control, as it does not take input action into account. Thus the linear quadratic
Gaussian (LQG) benchmark was proposed in the PhD dissertation of Huang in 1997. In order
to extend beyond simple benchmark comparisons, a new family of methods was developed to
monitor specific instruments within control loops for diagnosing poor performance (by Horch,
Huang, Jelali, Kano, Qin, Scali, Shah, Thornhill, etc). As a result, various CPD approaches
have appeared since 2000.
To address the CPD problem systematically, Bayesian diagnosis methods were introduced
by Huang in 2008. Due to their ability to incorporate both prior knowledge and data, Bayesian
methods are a powerful tool for CPD. They have been proven to be useful for a variety of
monitoring and predictive maintenance purposes. Successful applications of the Bayesian
approach have also been reported in medical science, image processing, target recognition,
pattern matching, information retrieval, reliability analysis and engineering diagnosis. It pro-
vides a flexible structure for modelling and evaluating uncertainties. In the presence of noise
and disturbances, Bayesian inference provides a good way to solve the monitoring and diag-
nosis problem, providing a quantifiable measure of uncertainty for decision making. It is one
of the most widely applied techniques in statistical inference, as well being used to diagnose
engineering problems.
The Bayesian approach was applied to fault detection and diagnosis (FDI) in the mechan-
ical components of transport vehicles by Pernestal in 2007, and Huang applied it to CPD in
Preface xv

2008. CPD techniques bear some resemblance to FDI. Faults usually refer to failure events,
while control performance abnormality does not necessarily imply a failure. Thus, CPD is
performance-related, often focusing on detecting control related problems that affect control
system performance, including economic and environmental performance, while FDI focuses
on the failure of components. Under the Bayesian framework, both can be considered as an
abnormal event or fault diagnosis for control systems. Thus control system fault diagnosis is
a more appropriate term that covers both.

Book Objective, Organization and Readership

The main objectives of this book are to establish a Bayesian framework for control system
fault diagnosis, to synthesize observations of different monitors with prior knowledge, and to
pinpoint possible abnormal sources on the basis of Bayesian theory. To achieve these objec-
tives, this book provides comprehensive coverage of various Bayesian methods for control
system fault diagnosis. The book starts with a tutorial introduction of Bayesian theory and
its applications for general diagnosis problems, and an introduction to the existing control
loop performance-monitoring techniques. Based upon these fundamentals, the book turns to a
general data-driven Bayesian framework for control system fault diagnosis. This is followed
by presentation of various practical problems and solutions. To extend beyond traditional
CPM with discrete outputs, this book also explores how control loop performance monitors
with continuous outputs can be directly incorporated into the Bayesian diagnosis framework,
thus improving diagnosis performance. Furthermore, to deal with historical data taken from
ambiguous operating conditions, two approaches are explored:

• Dempster–Shafer theory, which is often used in other applications when ambiguity is present
• a parametrized Bayesian approach.

Finally, to demonstrate the practical relevance of the methodology, the proposed solutions are
demonstrated through a number of practical engineering examples.
This book attempts to consolidate results developed or published by the authors over the
last few years and to compile them together with their fundamentals in a systematic way. In
this respect, the book is likely to be of use for graduate students and researchers as a mono-
graph, and as a place to look for basic as well as state-of-the-art techniques in control system
performance monitoring and fault diagnosis. Since several self-contained practical examples
are included in the book, it also provides a place for practising engineers to look for solutions
to their daily monitoring and diagnosis problems. In addition, the book has comprehensive
coverage of Bayesian theory and its application in fault diagnosis, and thus it will be of inter-
est to mathematically oriented readers who are interested in applying theory to practice. On
the other hand, due to the combination of theory and applications, it will also be beneficial
to applied researchers and practitioners who are interested in giving themselves a sound theo-
retical foundation. The readers of this book will include graduate students and researchers in
chemical engineering, mechanical engineering and electrical engineering, specializing in pro-
cess control, control systems and process systems engineering. It is expected that readers will
be acquainted with some fundamental knowledge of undergraduate probability and statistics.
Acknowledgements

The material in this book is the outcome of several years of research efforts by the authors
and many other graduate students and post-doctoral fellows at the University of Alberta. In
particular, we would like to acknowledge those who have contributed directly to the general
area of Bayesian statistics that has now become one of the most active research subjects in
our group: Xingguang Shao, Shima Khatibisepehr, Marziyeh Keshavarz, Kangkang Zhang,
Swanand Khare, Aditya Tulsyan, Nima Sammaknejad and Ming Ma. We would also like to
thank our colleagues and collaborators in the computer process control group at the University
of Alberta, who have provided a stimulating environment for process control research. The
broad range of talent within the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering at the
University of Alberta has allowed cross-fertilization and nurturing of many different ideas
that have made this book possible. We are indebted to industrial practitioners Aris Espejo,
Ramesh Kadali, Eric Lau and Dan Brown, who have inspired us with practical relevance in
broad areas of process control research. We would also like to thank our laboratory support
from Artin Afacan, computing support from Jack Gibeau, and other supporting staff in the
Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering at the University of Alberta. The support
of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and Alberta Innovates
Technology Futures for this and related research work is gratefully acknowledged. Last, but
not least, we would like to acknowledge Kangkang Zhang, Yuri Shardt and Sun Zhou for their
detailed review of and comments on the book.
Some of the figures presented in this book are taken from our previous work that has been
published in journals. We would like to acknowledge the journal publishers who have allowed
us to re-use these figures:
Figures 3.1 and 14.1 are adapted with permission from AIChE Journal, Vol. 56, Qi F,
Huang B and Tamayo EC, ‘A Bayesian approach for control loop diagnosis with missing data’,
pp. 179–195. ©2010 John Wiley and Sons.
Figures 4.4 and 13.2 are adapted with permission from Automatica, Vol. 47, Qi F and
Huang B, ‘Bayesian methods for control loop diagnosis in the presence of temporal dependent
evidences’, pp. 1349–1356. ©2011 Elsevier.
Figures 4.1, 4.3, 4.5–4.7, 13.1 and 13.3 are adapted with permission from Industrial &
Engineering Chemistry Research, Vol. 49, Qi F and Huang B, ‘Dynamic Bayesian approach for
control loop diagnosis with underlying mode dependency’, pp. 8613–8623. © 2010 American
Chemical Society.
Figures 8.1–8.4 are adapted with permission from Journal of Process Control, Vol. 24,
Gonzalez R and Huang B, ‘Control loop diagnosis using continuous evidence through kernel
density estimation’, pp. 640–651. ©2014 Elsevier.
List of Figures

1.1 Typical control loop 7

1.2 Overview of proposed solutions 13
2.1 Bayesian parameter result 20
2.2 Comparison of inference methods 21
2.3 Illustrative process 24
2.4 Evidence space with only prior samples 25
2.5 Evidence space with prior and historical data 26
2.6 Mode dependence (hidden Markov model) 28
2.7 Evidence dependence 30
2.8 Evidence and mode dependence 32
2.9 Histogram of distribution 52
2.10 Centered histogram of distribution 53
2.11 Gaussian kernel density estimate 54
2.12 Data for kernel density estimation 55
2.13 Data points with kernels 56
2.14 Kernel density estimate from data 56
2.15 Distribution of μ̂ estimate 58
2.16 Sampling distribution for bootstrapping 59
2.17 Smoothed sampling distribution for bootstrapping 59
2.18 Distribution of μ̂ estimate 61
3.1 Typical control system structure 63
4.1 Bayesian model with independent evidence data samples 69
4.2 Monitor outputs of the illustrative problem 69
4.3 Bayesian model considering dependent evidence 70
4.4 Illustration of evidence transition samples 70
4.5 Bayesian model considering dependent mode 75
4.6 Historical composite mode dataset for mode transition probability estimation 77
xx List of Figures

4.7 Dynamic Bayesian model that considers both mode and evidence dependence 81
6.1 Diagnosis result for support in Table 6.1 105
8.1 Grouping approaches for kernel density method 130
8.2 Discrete method performance 130
8.3 Two-dimensional system with dependent evidence 131
8.4 Two-dimensional discretization schemes 132
8.5 Histogram of distribution 133
8.6 Centered histogram of distribution 133
8.7 Gaussian kernel density estimate 133
8.8 Kernels summing to a kernel density estimate 134
9.1 Operation diagram of sticky valve 151
9.2 Stiction model flow diagram 152
9.3 Bounded stiction parameter search space 152
9.4 Bootstrap method flow diagram 157
9.5 Histogram of simulated Ŝ 157
9.6 Histogram of simulated Jˆ 158
9.7 Auto-correlation coefficient of residuals 158
9.8 Histogram of residual distribution 159
9.9 Histogram of Ŝ b 159
9.10 Histogram of Jˆb 160
b
9.11 Histogram of bootstrapped Ŝ for Chemical 55 161
9.12 Histogram of bootstrapped Jˆb for Chemical 55 161
9.13 Histogram of bootstrapped Ŝ b for Chemical 60 162
9.14 Histogram of bootstrapped Jˆb for Chemical 60 162
9.15 Histogram of bootstrapped Ŝ b for Paper 1 162
9.16 Histogram of bootstrapped Jˆb for Paper 1 163
b
9.17 Histogram of bootstrapped Ŝ for Paper 9 163
9.18 Histogram of bootstrapped Jˆb for Paper 9 163
9.19 Schematic diagram of the distillation column 165
9.20 Distillation column diagnosis with all historical data 168
9.21 Distillation column diagnosis with only one sample from mode m1 168
9.22 Distillation column diagnosis with only one sample from mode m2 169
9.23 Distillation column diagnosis with only one sample from mode m3 169
9.24 Distillation column diagnosis with only one sample from mode m4 170
10.1 Overall algorithm 173
10.2 Hybrid tank system 181
10.3 Hybrid tank control system 194
List of Figures xxi

10.4 Diagnosis results for component-space approach 197

10.5 Diagnosis results for mode-space approach 198
11.1 Tennessee Eastman process 204
11.2 Hybrid tank system 206
11.3 Solids handling system 207
12.1 Bayesian diagnosis process 212
12.2 Illustrative process 213
12.3 Evidence space with only prior samples 214
12.4 Evidence space with prior samples and historical samples 214
12.5 Evidence space with historical data 215
12.6 Posterior probability assigned to each mode for TE simulation problem 217
12.7 Posterior probability assigned to each mode 218
12.8 Posterior probability assigned to each mode for industrial process 219
13.1 Dynamic Bayesian model that considers both mode and evidence dependence 222
13.2 Illustration of evidence transition samples 223
13.3 Historical composite mode dataset for mode transition probability estimation 227
14.1 Estimation of expected complete evidence numbers out of the incomplete
samples 235
14.2 Bayesian diagnosis process with incomplete evidences 237
14.3 Evidence space with all samples 239
14.4 Comparison of complete evidence numbers 242
14.5 Diagnostic results with different dataset 243
14.6 Diagnostic rate with different datasets 243
14.7 Posterior probability assigned to each mode 244
14.8 Diagnostic rate with different dataset 245
14.9 Posterior probability assigned to each mode for industrial process 245
14.10 Diagnostic rate with different dataset 246
15.1 Typical control loop 254
15.2 An illustration of diagnosis results with uncertainty region 265
15.3 Probability bounds at 30% ambiguity 266
15.4 Probability bounds at 70% ambiguity 266
15.5 Tennessee Eastman problem mode-diagnosis error 267
15.6 Tennessee Eastman component-diagnosis error 268
15.7 Hybrid tank system mode-diagnosis error 269
15.8 Hybrid tank system component-diagnosis error 269
15.9 Industrial system mode-diagnosis error 270
15.10 Industrial system component-diagnosis error 270
xxii List of Figures

16.1 Typical control loop 277

16.2 Tennessee Eastman problem mode-diagnosis error 284
16.3 Tennessee Eastman problem component-diagnosis error 284
16.4 Hybrid tank system mode-diagnosis error 285
16.5 Hybrid tank system component-diagnosis error 285
16.6 Industrial system mode-diagnosis error 286
16.7 Industrial system component-diagnosis error 286
17.1 Typical control loop 293
17.2 Tennessee Eastman problem: discrete vs. kernel density estimation 303
17.3 Grouping approaches for discrete method 303
17.4 Grouping approaches for kernel density method 304
17.5 Hybrid tank problem: discrete vs. kernel density estimation 305
17.6 Grouping approaches for discrete method 305
17.7 Grouping approaches for kernel density method 306
17.8 Solids-handling problem: discrete vs. kernel density estimation 306
17.9 Grouping approaches for discrete method 306
17.10 Grouping approaches for kernel density method 307
17.11 Function z_matmultiply 310
17.12 Function z_transpose 311
17.13 Converting matrices depth-wise 312
18.1 Mode autodependence 314
18.2 Evidence autodependence 316
18.3 Evidence and mode autodependence 318
18.4 Typical control loop 320
18.5 Comparison of dynamic methods 325
18.6 Comparison of dynamic methods 326
18.7 Comparison of dynamic methods 327
List of Tables

1.1 List of monitors for each system 8

2.1 Counts of historical evidence 26
2.2 Counts of combined historical and prior evidence 26
2.3 Likelihoods of evidence 27
2.4 Likelihoods of dynamic evidence 31
2.5 Counts of combined historical and prior evidence 32
2.6 List of conjugate priors (Fink 1997) 35
2.7 Biased sensor mode 39
2.8 Modes and their corresponding labels 45
2.9 Ambiguous modes and their corresponding labels 45
2.10 Historical data for all modes 45
4.1 Likelihood estimation of the illustrative problem 70
6.1 Support from example scenario 104
7.1 Frequency counts from example 118
8.1 Comparison between discrete and kernel methods 127
8.2 The curse of dimensionality 138
9.1 Comparison of sample standard deviations 160
9.2 Confidence intervals of the identified stiction parameters 164
9.3 Dimensions of the distillation column 166
9.4 Operating modes for the column 166
9.5 Commissioned monitors for the column 167
9.6 Summary of Bayesian diagnostic parameters 167
10.1 Included monitors for component space approach 195
10.2 Misdiagnosis rates for modes 196
10.3 Misdiagnosis rates for component faults 196
xxiv List of Tables

11.1 List of simulated modes 204

12.1 Numbers of historical evidences 214
12.2 Updated likelihood with historical data 215
12.3 Summary of Bayesian diagnostic parameters for TE simulation problem 216
12.4 Correct diagnosis rate 217
12.5 Summary of Bayesian diagnostic parameters for pilot experimental problem 217
12.6 Summary of Bayesian diagnostic parameters for industrial problem 219
12.7 Correct diagnosis rate 219
14.1 Number of historical evidence samples 239
14.2 Numbers of estimated sample numbers 240
14.3 Summary of historical and prior samples 240
14.4 Estimated likelihood with different strategy 240
14.5 Summary of historical and prior samples 241
15.1 Probability of evidence given Mode (1) 255
15.2 Prior probabilities 256
15.3 Frequency of modes containing m1 258
15.4 Support of modes containing m1 259
16.1 Probability of evidence given Mode (1) 278
16.2 Frequency of modes containing m1 280
16.3 Support of modes containing m1 280
Nomenclature

Symbol Description
α Frequency parameter for the Dirichlet distribution
α{ m•k } Frequency parameters pertaining to the ambiguous mode mk
μ Population mean
Σ Population covariance
σ Population standard deviation
Θ Complete set of probability/proportion parameters
Θ{ m•k } The set of elements in Θ pertaining to the ambiguous mode mk
Θ̂ Informed estimate of Θ
Θ Complete set of probability/proportion parameters (matrix form)
Θ∗ Inclusive estimate of Θ (matrix form)
Θ∗ Exclusive estimate of Θ (matrix form)
θ A probability/proportion parameter
θ{ mm
} Proportion of data in ambiguous mode m belonging to mode m
Bel(M ) Lower-bound probability of mode M
C State of the component of interest (random variable)
c State of the component of interest (observation)
C(M ) The event where mode M was diagnosed
C(M )|M The event where mode M was diagnosed and M was true
C(M̄ )|M The event where a mode other than M was diagnosed and M was true
D Historical record of evidence
Di ith element of historical evidence data record D
E Evidence (random variable)
e Evidence (observation)
FN False negative diagnosis rate
G Generalized BBA
G[:, m] mth column of G (MATLAB notation)
G[k, :] kth row of G (MATLAB notation)
H Bandwidth matrix (Kernel density estimation)
H Hessian matrix
i.i.d. Independent and identically distributed
J Jacobian matrix
xxvi Nomenclature

Symbol Description
K Support for conflict (Dempster–Shafer theory)
K Kernel function (kernel density estimation)
M Operational mode (random variable)
M Potentially ambiguous operational mode (random variable)
m Operational mode (observation)
m Potentially ambiguous operational mode (observation)
MIC Mutual information criterion
CMIC Conditional mutual information criterion
n(E) Number of times evidence E has been observed
n(E, M ) Number of times evidence E and mode M have been jointly observed
n(M ) Number of times mode M was observed
ODE [f (x)] Ordinary differential equation solver applied to f (x)
p(E) Normalization over evidence (probability of evidence)
p(E|M ) Likelihood (probability of evidence given the mode)
p(M ) Prior (prior probability of the mode)
p(M |E) Posterior (probability of mode given the evidence)
P l(M ) Upper bound probability of mode M
P Posterior state covariance (Kalman filter)
Q Model error covariance (Kalman filter)
R Observation error covariance (Kalman filter)
S Sample covariance matrix
S(E|M ) Support for evidence E given potentially ambiguous mode M
S(M ) Support for potentially ambiguous mode M
S(E|M ) Support for potentially ambiguous mode M given evidence E
UCEM Underlying complete evidence matrix
UKF [f (x)] Unscented Kalman filter with a model f (x)
Part One
Fundamentals
Random documents with unrelated
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Hugues would speak: the respect they felt for the great citizen and
his companions in misfortune, the adventures he had to relate,
mixed up (it was reported) with strange facts, excited interest and
curiosity. Hugues rose to speak: there was deep silence: ‘You know,
sirs,’ he began, ‘that five or six months ago, on the morrow of Holy
Cross (September 15, 1525), we left here in great haste by different
roads; without communicating with one another, not knowing where
to go to escape the rage of the most illustrious duke, Monseigneur of
Savoy. We were warned by friends that, on the demand of certain
persons in this city, the prince was resolved to take us and put us
ignominiously to death, because we had resisted innovations
opposed to our liberties. Ah! sirs, that was no child’s play, believe
me. The archers and agents of my lord of Savoy pursued us as far
as St. Claude, from St. Claude to Besançon, and beyond.... We had
to travel day and night in the woods, through wind and rain, not
knowing where to go in quest of safety.... At last we considered that
we had friends at Friburg, and thither we went.’

The citizens, riveting their eyes on Hugues, did not lose a word of
his narrative and of the details which he added. They seemed to
bear him company through those woods and mountains, among the
ravines and snow; they fancied they heard behind them the tramp of
the armed men in pursuit of them.... What struck them was not only
the epic element in the flight and return of these free men, of which
ancient Greece would doubtless have made one of the finest myths
in her history; it was in an especial manner the sovereign
importance which these acts had for them. During those sacred
days, Geneva and her destinies had turned on their axis; her gates
were opened on the side of light and liberty; the flight, the residence
at Berne and Friburg, and the return of Hugues and his companions,
are one of the most important pages in the annals of the city.

Hugues continued: he told them how Friburg and Berne had seen no
other means of securing their liberties than by receiving them into
their alliance.... ‘Here are the letters duly sealed with their great
seals,’ said the noble orator, presenting a parchment. ‘They are
written in German; but I will tell you their substance, article by
article, without deceiving you in any—on my life.’ He read the act of
alliance, and added: ‘Sirs, my comrades and I here present promise
you, on our lives and goods, that the said citizenship is such.
Consider, sirs, if you will ratify and accept it.’ The assembly testified
its approbation with thanks to God, and resolved to convoke a
general council for the next day.404

The catholic party and the ducal party were aroused. The Swiss
alliance, an immense innovation, threatened all the conquests they
had made with so much trouble in Geneva during so many
generations. The bishop, full of uneasiness, consulted with the
canons and some others on whom he thought he could rely. All told
him that if Berne had its way in Geneva, there would be no more
bishop, no more prince. To work then! All the powers of feudalism
and the papacy conspired against an alliance which first gave
Geneva liberty and afterwards the Gospel. At first they wished to
prevent the general council from meeting. It was customary to
summon it by tolling the great bell; now Canon Lutry had the key of
the tower where this bell hung. In the evening the reverend father,
followed by some armed men, climbed step by step up the narrow
stairs which led to the bell-loft, and placed the men in garrison
there. ‘You are here,’ he said, ‘to defend the bell and not to give it
up;’ he then went down, double-locked the door, and carried away
the key. In the morning the door was found to be locked, and Lutry
refused to open it. ‘The canons,’ it was said in the city, ‘are opposed
to the assembling of the people.’ The irritated citizens ran together.
‘Whereupon there was a great uproar and alarm in the church of St.
Pierre, so that De Lutry was constrained to open the door and give
up the bell.’405

It was all over; they resolved still to fight a last battle, even with the
certainty of being defeated. The general council met; the bishop
went thither in person, attended by his episcopal followers, in the
hope that his presence might intimidate the huguenots. ‘I am head,
pastor, and prince of the community,’ he said. ‘It concerns my affairs,
and I wish to know what will be laid before you.’—‘It is not the
custom for my lord to be present,’ said Hugues; ‘the citizens transact
none but political matters here406 which concern them wholly. His
presence, however, is always pleasing to us, provided nothing be
deduced from it prejudicial to our liberties.’ Thereupon Hugues
proposed the alliance. Then Stephen de la Mare got up. In 1519 he
had shone in the foremost rank of the patriots; but, an ardent
Roman Catholic, he had since then placed liberty in the second rank
and the Church in the first. It was he who had undertaken to oppose
the proposition. ‘It is sufficient for us to live under the protection of
God, St. Peter, and the bishop.... I oppose the alliance.’ De la Mare
could not proceed, so great was the confusion that broke out in the
assembly; the indignation was general, yet order and quiet were
restored at last, and the treaty was read. ‘Will you ratify this
alliance?’ said first syndic G. Bergeron. ‘Yes, yes!’ they shouted on
every side. The syndic continued: ‘Let those who approve of it hold
up their hands!’ There was a forest of hands, every man holding up
both at once. ‘We desire it, we approve of it,’ they shouted again.
‘Those of the contrary opinion?’ added the syndic. Six hands only
were raised in opposition. Pierre de la Baume from his episcopal
throne looked down upon this spectacle with anxiety. Even to the
last he had reckoned upon success. By selecting De la Mare, the old
leader of the patriots, and placing him at the head of the movement
against the alliance with the Swiss, he fancied he had hit upon an
admirable combination; but his hopes were disappointed. Alarmed
and irritated, seeing what this vote would lead to, and determined to
keep his principality at any cost, the bishop-prince exclaimed: ‘I do
not consent to this alliance; I appeal to our holy father the pope and
to his majesty the emperor.’ But to no purpose did the Bishop of
Geneva, on the eve of losing his states, appeal to powers the most
dreaded—no one paid any attention to his protest. Joy beamed on
every face, and the words ‘pope, emperor,’ were drowned by
enthusiastic shouts of ‘The Swiss ... the Swiss and liberty!’ Besançon
Hugues, who, although on the side of independence, was attached
to the bishop, exerted all his influence with him. ‘Very well, then,’
said the versatile prelate, ‘if your franchises permit you to contract
an alliance without your prince, do so.’—‘I take note of this
declaration,’ said Hugues; and then he added: ‘More than once the
citizens have concluded such alliances without their prince—with
Venice, Cologne, and other cities.’ The Register mentions that after
this the prince went away satisfied. We rather doubt it; but however
that may be, the bishop by his presence had helped to sanction the
measure which he had so much at heart to prevent.407

What comforted Pierre de la Baume was the sight of Besançon

Hugues at the head of the movement. That great citizen assured the
bishop that the alliance with Switzerland was not opposed to his
authority; and he did so with perfect honesty.408 Hugues was simply
a conservative. He desired an alliance with Switzerland in order to
preserve Geneva in her present position. He desired to maintain the
prelate not only as bishop, but also as prince: all his opposition was
aimed at the usurpations of Savoy. But there were minds in Geneva
already wishing for more. Certain citizens, in whom the new
aspirations of modern times were beginning to show themselves,
said that the municipal liberties of the city were continually fettered,
and often crushed, by the princely authority of the bishop. Had he
not been seen to favour the cruel murders which the Savoyard
power had committed in Geneva? ‘The liberties of the people and
the temporal lordship of the bishop cannot exist together; one or
other of the two powers must succumb,’ they said. The history of
succeeding ages has shown but too plainly the reasonableness of
these fears. Wherever the bishop has remained king, he has
trampled the liberties of the people under foot. There we find no
representative government, no liberty of the press, no religious
liberty. In the eyes of the bishop-prince these great blessings of
modern society are monsters to be promptly stifled. Some Genevans
comprehended the danger that threatened them, and, wishing to
preserve the liberties they had received from their ancestors, saw no
other means than by withdrawing from the ministers of religion a
worldly power which Jesus Christ had refused them beforehand.
Some—but their number was very small then—went further, and
began to ask whether the authority of a bishop in religious matters
was not still more contrary to the precepts of the Gospel, which
acknowledged no other authority than that of the word of God; and
whether liberty could ever exist in the State so long as there was a
despot in the Church. Such were the great questions beginning to be
discussed in Geneva more than three hundred years ago: the
present time seems destined to solve them.

In spite of the loyal assurances of Besançon Hugues, the bishop was

disturbed. Sitting with liberty at his side, he felt ill at ease; and the
terror spreading through the ranks of the clergy could not fail to
reach him. If the Bishop of Geneva should be deprived of his
principality, who can tell if men will not one day deprive the pope of
his kingship? The alarm of the canons, priests, and friends of the
papacy continued to increase. Did they not know that the
Reformation was daily gaining ground in many of the confederated
states? Friburg, indeed, was still catholic; but Zurich was no longer
so, and everything announced that Berne would soon secede. The
great light was to come from another country, from a country that
spoke the language of Geneva; but Geneva was then receiving from
Switzerland the first gleams that precede the day. Some Genevans
were already beginning to profess, rather undisguisedly, their new
religious tendencies; Robert Vandel, the bishop’s friend, openly
defended the Reformation. ‘Sire Robert is not very good for Friburg,’
said some; ‘but he is good for Berne, very good!’ which meant that
he preferred Holy Scripture to the pope. The priests said that if
Geneva was united to Switzerland, there was an end of the
privileges of the clergy; that simple christians would begin to occupy
themselves with religion; and that in Geneva, as in Basle,
Schaffhausen, and Berne, laymen would talk about the faith of the
Church. Now there was nothing of which the clergy were more
afraid. The ministers of the Romish religion, instead of examining
the Scriptures, of finding in them doctrines capable of satisfying the
wants of man, and of propagating them by mild persuasion, were
occupied with very different matters, and would not suffer any one
but themselves to think even of the Bible and its contents. Never
was a calling made a more thorough fiction. It was said of them:
They have taken away the key of knowledge; they enter not in
themselves, and them that were entering in they hindered.

These ideas became stronger every day, and the attachment of the
priests to their old customs was more stubborn than ever. It was
difficult to avoid an outbreak; but it should be observed that it was
provoked by the canons. These rich and powerful clerics, who were
determined to oppose the alliance with all their power, and, if
necessary, to defend their clerical privileges with swords and
arquebuses, got together a quantity of arms in the house of De
Lutry, the most fanatical of their number, in order to make use of
them ‘against the city.’ On the night of the 26th of February, these
reverend seigniors, as well as the principal mamelukes, crept one
after another into this house, and held a consultation. A rumour
spread through the city, and the citizens told one another ‘that M. de
Lutry and M. de Vausier had brought together a number of people
secretly to get up a riot.’ The patriots, prompt and resolute in
character, were determined not to give the mamelukes the least
chance of recovering their power. ‘The people rose in arms,’ the
house was surrounded; it would appear that some of the chiefs of
the ducal party came out, and that swords were crossed. ‘A few
were wounded,’ says the chronicler. However, ‘proclamation was
made to the sound of the trumpet through the city,’ and order was
restored.409

The conspiracy of the canons having thus failed, the members of the
feudal and papal party thought everything lost. They fancied they
saw an irrevocable fatality dragging them violently to their
destruction. The principal supporters of the old order of things,
engrossed by the care of their compromised security, thought only of
escaping, like birds of night, before the first beams of day. They
disguised themselves and slipped out unobserved, some by one
gate, some by another. It was almost a universal panic. The
impetuous Lutry escaped first, with one of his colleagues; the
bishop-prince’s turn came next. Bitterly upbraided by the Count of
Genevois for not having prevented the alliance, Pierre de la Baume
took alarm both at the huguenots and the duke, and escaped to St.
Claude. The agents of his Highness of Savoy trembled in their
castles; the vidame hastened to depart on the one side, and the
gaoler of the Château de l’Ile, who was nick-named the sultan, did
the same on the other.

The most terrified were the clerics and the mamelukes who had
been present at the meeting at Canon de Lutry’s. They had taken
good care not to stop after the alarm that had been given them, and
when the order was made by sound of trumpet for every man to
retire to his own house, they had hastened to escape in disguise,
trembling and hopeless. The next morning the city watch, followed
by the sergeants, forcibly entered De Lutry’s house, and seized the
arms, which had been carefully hidden; but they found the nest
empty, for all the birds had flown. ‘If they had not escaped,’ said
Syndic Balard, ‘they would have been in danger of death.’ The
canons who had not taken flight sent two of their number to the
hôtel-de-ville to say to the syndics: ‘Will you keep us safe and sure
in the city? if not, will you give us a safe-conduct, that we may leave
it?’ They thought only of following their colleagues.

The flight of the 26th of February was the counterpart of that of the
15th of September. In September the new times had disappeared in
Geneva for a few weeks only; in February the old times were
departing for ever. The Genevese rejoiced as they saw these leeches
disappear, who had bled them so long, even to the very marrow.
‘The priests and the Savoyards,’ they said, ‘are like wolves driven
from the woods by hunger: there is nothing left for them to take,
and they are compelled to go elsewhere for their prey.’ Nothing could
be more favourable to the Swiss alliance and to liberty than this
general flight. The partisans of the duke and of the bishop having
evacuated the city, the senate and the people remained masters.
The grateful citizens ascribed all the glory to God, and exclaimed:
‘The sovereignty is now in the hands of the council, without the
interference of either magistrates or people. Everything was done by
the grace of God.’410
At the very time when the men of feudalism were quitting Geneva,
those of liberty were arriving, and the great transition was effected.
On the 11th of March eight Swiss ambassadors entered the city in
the midst of a numerous crowd and under a salute of artillery: they
were the envoys from the cantons who had come to receive the
oaths of Geneva and give theirs in return. The next day these
freemen, sons of the conquerors of Charles the Bold, all glowing
with desire to protect Geneva from the attacks of Charles the Good,
appeared before the general council. At their head was Sebastian de
Diesbach, an energetic man, devout catholic, great captain, and
skilful diplomatist. ‘Magnificent lords and very dear fellow-freemen,’
he said, ‘Friburg and Berne acquaint you that they are willing to live
and die with you.... Will you swear to observe the alliance that has
been drawn up?’—‘Yes,’ exclaimed all the Genevans, without one
dissentient voice. Then the Swiss ambassadors stood up and raised
their hands towards heaven to make the oath. Every one looked with
emotion on those eight Helvetians of lofty stature and martial
bearing, the representatives of the energetic populations whose
military glory at this time surpassed that of all other nations. The
noble Sebastian having pronounced the oath of alliance, his
companions raised their hands also, and repeated his words aloud.
The citizens exclaimed with transport: ‘We desire it, we desire it!’
Then with deep emotion said some: ‘Those men were born in a
happy hour, who have brought about so good a business.’ Eight
deputies of Geneva, among whom were Francis Favre and G.
Hugues, brother of Besançon, proceeded to Berne and Friburg to
make the same oath on the part of their fellow-citizens.411

The men of the old times were not discouraged: if they had been
beaten at Geneva, might they not conquer at Friburg and Berne?
Indefatigable in their exertions, they resolved to set every engine to
work in order to succeed. Stephen de la Mare, three other deputies
of the duke, Michael Nergaz, and forty-two mamelukes went into
Switzerland to break off the alliance. But Friburg and Berne replied:
‘For nothing in the world will we depart from what we have sworn.’
The hand of God was manifest, and accordingly when Hugues heard
of this answer, he exclaimed: ‘God himself is conducting our affairs.’

Then was Geneva intoxicated with joy. On the morrow after the
taking of the oath in the general council, the delight of the people
broke out all over the city. Bonfires were lighted in the public places;
there was much dancing, masquerading, and shouting; patriotic and
satirical songs reechoed through the streets; there was an outburst
of happiness and liberty. ‘When a people have been kept so long in
the leash,’ said Bonivard, ‘as soon as they are let loose, they are apt
to indulge in dangerous gambols.’412

While the people were rejoicing after their fashion, the wise men of
the council resolved to show their gratitude to God in another
manner. The councils issued a general pardon. Then an indulgence
and concord were proclaimed, and all bound themselves to live in
harmony. They went further: they desired to repair the injustice of
the old régime. ‘Bonivard,’ said some, ‘has been unjustly deprived of
his priory of St. Victor because of his patriotism.’—‘What would you
have us do?’ they answered; ‘the pope has given the benefice to
another.’—‘I should not make it a serious matter of conscience to
disobey the pope,’ said Bonivard slily.—‘And as for us,’ said the
syndics, ‘we do not care much about him.’ In later years the
magistrates of Geneva gave the most palpable proofs of this
declaration; for the moment, they confined themselves to resettling
the ex-prior in the house of which the pope had robbed him.
Another more important reparation had still to be effected.

In this solemn hour, when the cause of liberty was triumphing, amid
the joyful shouts of a whole people, two names were pronounced
with sighs and even with tears: ‘Berthelier! Lévrier!’ said the noblest
of the citizens. ‘We have reached the goal, but it was they who
traced out the road with their blood.’ An enfranchised people ought
not to be ungrateful to their liberators. By a singular coincidence the
anniversary of Berthelier’s death revived more keenly the memory of
that disastrous event. On the 23rd of August a hundred citizens
appeared before the council: ‘Seven years ago this very day,’ they
said, ‘Philibert Berthelier was beheaded in the cause of the republic;
we pray that his memory be honoured, and that, for such end, a
solemn procession shall march to the ringing of bells from the
church of St. Pierre to that of Our Lady of Grace, where the hero’s
head was buried.’ That was not without danger: Our Lady’s was on
the Savoy frontier, and his Highness’s soldiers might easily have
disturbed the ceremony. The council preferred ordering a solemn
service in memory of Berthelier, Lévrier, and others who died for the
republic. The Genevans, acknowledging the great blessings with
which the hand of God had enriched them, wished to repair all
wrongs, honour all self-sacrifice, and walk with a firm step in the
paths of justice and of liberty. It was by such sacrifices that they
meant to celebrate their deliverance.413

Geneva did not stand alone in feeling these aspirations towards

modern times. It was doubtless in the sixteenth century a great
example of liberty; but the movement tending towards new things
was felt among all those nations whom the Bible compares to a
troubled sea: the tide was rising over the whole surface. During the
first half of the sixteenth century Europe was awaking; the love of
ancient learning enlightened the mind, and the brilliant rays of
christian truth, so long intercepted, were beginning to pierce the
clouds. A world till then unknown was opening before man’s
astonished eyes, and everything seemed to announce a civilisation,
independence, and life as yet unknown to the human race. The mind
of Europe awoke, and moving forward took its station in the light,
insatiable of life, of knowledge, and of liberty.

The great question was to know whether the new world, which
seemed to be issuing from the abyss, would repose on a solid
foundation. More than once already awakened society had appeared
to break its bonds, to throw off its shroud, and uplift the stone from
the sepulchre. It had happened thus in the ninth, eleventh, and
twelfth centuries, when the most eminent minds began to ask the
reason of things;414 but each time humanity had wanted the
necessary strength, the new birth was not completed, the tomb
closed over it again, and it fell once more into a heavy slumber.

Would it be the same now? Would this awakening of the sixteenth

century be also like a watch in the night?

Certain men, elect of God, were to give this new movement the
strength it needed. Let us turn towards that country whence Geneva
would receive those heroes baptised with the Holy Spirit and with
fire.

The scene of our history is about to change. ‘A man of mark’ whom

we have already quoted, said, when speaking of Geneva: ‘On this
platform appear actors who do not speak so loud as great kings and
emperors on the spacious theatre of their states; but what matters
how the speaker is dressed, if he says what he ought?’415 We are
leaving for a time this modest platform. We shall no longer have to
speak of a little nation whose greatest heroes are obscure citizens.
We are entering a mighty empire where we shall be in the company
of kings and queens, of great personages and famous courtiers. Yet
the dissimilarity between the two theatres is not so wide as one
might expect. In that vast country of France, where historians
usually describe nothing but the great stream formed by the
numerous combinations of policy, a few springs are seen welling
forth, at first unnoticed, but they swell by degrees, and their waters
will one day have more influence on the destiny of the world than
the floods of that mighty river. One of these springs appeared at
Etaples, close upon the shores of the Channel; another at Gap in
Dauphiny; and others in other places. But the most important, that
which was to unite them all and spread a new life even to the most
distant countries, welled up at Noyon, an ancient and once illustrious
town of Picardy. It was France who gave Lefèvre and Farel—France,
too, gave Calvin. That French people, who (as some say) cared for
nothing but war and diplomacy; that home of a philosophy often
sceptical and sometimes incredulous and mocking; that nation which
proclaimed and still proclaims itself the eldest daughter of Rome,
gave to the world the Reformation of Calvin and of Geneva—the
great Reformation, that which is the strength of the most influential
nations, and which reaches even to the ends of the world. France
has no nobler title of renown: we do not forget it. Perhaps she will
not always disdain it, and after having enriched others she will
enrich herself. It will be a great epoch for her future development,
when her dearest children drink at those living fountains that burst
from her bosom in the sixteenth century, or rather at that eternal
fountain of the Word of God, whose waters are for the healing of
nations.
 BOOK II.
FRANCE. FAVOURABLE TIMES.
 CHAPTER I.
A MAN OF THE PEOPLE AND A QUEEN.

(1525-1526.)

T HE Reformation was concerned both with God and man: its aim
was to restore the paths by which God and man unite, by which
the Creator enters again into the creature. This path, opened by
Jesus Christ with power, had been blocked up in ages of superstition.
The Reformation cleared the road, and reopened the door.

We willingly acknowledge that the middle ages had not ignored the
wonderful work of redemption: truth was then covered with a veil
rather than destroyed, and if the noxious weeds be plucked up with
which the field had gradually been filled, the primitive soil is laid
bare. Take away the worship paid to the Virgin, the saints, and the
host; take away meritorious, magical, and supererogatory works,
and other errors besides, and we arrive at simple faith in the Father,
Son, and Holy Ghost. It is not the same when we come to the
manner in which God enters again into man. Roman catholicism had
gone astray in this respect; there were a few mystics in her fold who
pretended to tread this mysterious way; but their heated
imaginations misled them, while in the place of this inward worship
the Roman doctors substituted certain ecclesiastical formalities
mechanically executed. The only means of recovering this royal road
was to return to the apostolical times and seek for it in the Gospel.
Three acts are necessary to unite man again with God. Religion
penetrates into man by the depths of his conscience; thence it rises
to the height of his knowledge, and finally pervades the activity of
his whole life.
The conscience of man had been seared not only by the sin which
clings to our nature, but also by the indulgences and mortifications
imposed by the Church. It required to be vivified by faith in the
atoning blood of Christ.

Tradition, scholasticism, papal infallibility, mingling their confused

questions and numerous superstitions with the natural darkness of
the heart, man’s understanding had been completely obscured. It
needed to be enlightened by the torch of God’s word.

A society of priests, exercising absolute dominion, had enslaved

christendom. For this theocratic and clerical society it was necessary
to substitute a living society of the children of God.

With Luther began the awakening of the human conscience. Terrified

at the sin he discovered in himself, he found no other means of
peace but faith in the grace of Christ Jesus. This starting-point of the
German reformer was also that of every Reformation.

To Zwingle belongs in an especial manner the work of the

understanding. The first want of the Swiss reformer was to know
God. He inquired into the false and the true, the reason of faith.
Formed by the study of the Greek classics, he had the gift of
understanding and interpreting Scripture, and as soon as he reached
Zurich he began his career as a reformer by explaining the New
Testament.

Calvin perfected the third work necessary for the Reformation. His
characteristic is not, as the world imagines, the teaching of the
doctrines to which he has given his name; his great idea was to
unite all believers into one body, having the same life, and acting
under the same Chief. The Reform was essentially, in his eyes, the
renovation of the individual, of the human mind, of christendom. To
the Church of Rome, powerful as a government, but otherwise
enslaved and dead, he wished to oppose a regenerated Church
whose members had found through faith the liberty of the children
of God, and which should be not only a pillar of truth, but a principle
of moral purification for all the human race. He conceived the bold
design of forming for these modern times a society in which the
individual liberty and equality of its members should be combined
with adhesion to an immutable truth, because it came from God,
and to a holy and strict, but freely accepted law. An energetic effort
towards moral perfection was one of the devices written on his
standard. Not only did he conceive the grand idea we have pointed
out; he realised it. He gave movement and life to that enlightened
and sanctified society which was the object of his noble desires. And
now wherever churches are founded on the twofold basis of truth
and morality—even should they be at the antipodes—we may affirm
that Calvin’s sublime idea is extended and carried out.

It resulted from the very nature of this society that the democratic
element would be introduced into the nations where it was
established. By the very act of giving truth and morality to the
members of this body, he gave them liberty. All were called to search
for light in the Bible; all were to be taught immediately of God, and
not by priests only; all were called to give to others the truth they
had found. ‘Each one of you,’ said Calvin, ‘is consecrated to Christ, in
order that you may be associated with him in his kingdom, and be
partakers of his priesthood.’416 How could the citizens of this spiritual
republic be thought otherwise than worthy to have a share in its
government? The fifteenth chapter of the Acts shows us the
brethren united with the apostles and elders in the proceedings of
the Church, and such is the order that Calvin desired to reestablish.
We have already pointed out some of the reasons by virtue of which
constitutional liberty was introduced into the bosom of the nations
who received the Reform of Geneva. To these must be added the
reason just mentioned.

Disunited from each other, the three great principles of Luther,

Zwingle, and Calvin would have been insufficient. Faith, if it had not
possessed for its foundation the knowledge of the Word of God,
would have easily degenerated into a mystical enthusiasm. The
abstract authority of Scripture, separated from a living faith, would
have ended in a dead orthodoxy; and the social principle, deprived
of these two foundations, would have succeeded only in raising one
of those artificial edifices in the air which fall down as soon as built.

God, by giving in the sixteenth century a man who to the lively faith
of Luther and the scriptural understanding of Zwingle joined an
organising faculty and a creative mind, gave the complete reformer.
If Luther laid the foundations, if Zwingle and others built the walls,
Calvin completed the temple of God.

We shall have to see how this doctor arrived at a knowledge of the

truth; we shall have to study his labours and his struggles until the
moment when, quitting for ever a country whose soil trembled under
his feet and threatened to swallow him up, he went to plant upon a
lowly Alpine hill that standard around which he meditated rallying
the scattered members of Jesus Christ. But we must first see what
was the state of France at the time when the reformer was brought
to the Gospel.

The history of the Reformation in France, prior to the establishment

of Calvin at Geneva, is divided into two parts: the first includes the
favourable times, the second the unfavourable. We confess that the
favourable times were occasionally the reverse, and that the
unfavourable times were often favourable; and yet we believe that,
generally speaking, this distinction may be justified. This subject has
been frequently treated of; we shall, however, have to describe
some phases of the French Reformation which have not always been
set forth by those who have written its history.

Two persons, a man and a woman, whose social position and

character present the most striking contrasts, laboured with
particular zeal to propagate the Gospel in France at the epoch of the
Reformation.
The woman appears first. She is the most beautiful and intelligent,
the wittiest, most amiable and influential, and, with the exception of
her daughter, the greatest of her age. Sister, mother of kings, herself
a queen, grandmother of the monarch whom France (right or
wrong) has extolled the most, namely, Henry IV., she lived much in
the great world, in great ceremonials, with great personages, among
the magnificence of the Louvre, St. Germain, and Fontainebleau.
This woman is Margaret of Angoulême, Duchess of Alençon, Queen
of Navarre, and sister of Francis I.

The man who appears next (he was younger than her by seventeen
years) contrasts with all these grandeurs by the lowness of his
origin. He is a man of the people, a Picardin; his grandfather was a
cooper at Pont l’Evêque; his father was secretary to the bishop, and,
in the day of his greatest influence in the world, he apprenticed his
own brother Anthony to a bookbinder. Simple, frugal, poor, of a
disposition ‘rather morose and bashful’417—such is the humble veil
that hides the greatness of his genius and the strength of his will.
This man is Calvin.

This man and this woman, so opposite as regards their condition in

the world, resemble each other in their principal features. They both
possess faith in the great truths of the Gospel; they love Jesus
Christ; they have the same zeal for spreading with unwearied
activity the truths so dear to them; they have the same compassion
for the miserable, and especially for the victims of religious
persecution. But while the man sometimes presumes upon his manly
strength, the woman truly belongs to the weaker sex. She possesses
indeed a moral virtue which resists the seductions of the age; she
keeps herself pure in the midst of a depraved court; but she has also
that weakness which disposes one to be too indulgent, and permits
herself to be led away by certain peculiarities of contemporary
society. We see her writing tales whose origin may be explained and
even justified, since their object was to unveil the immorality of
priests and monks, but they are nevertheless a lamentable tribute
paid to the spirit of her age. While Calvin sets up against the papacy
a forehead harder than adamant, Margaret, even in the days of her
greatest zeal, is careful not to break with Rome. At last she yields,
outwardly at least, to the sovereign commands of her brother, the
persevering hostility of the court, clergy, and parliament, and though
cherishing in her heart faith in the Saviour who has redeemed her,
conceals that faith under the cloak of Romish devotion; while Calvin
propagates the Gospel, in opposition to the powers of the world,
saying: ‘Such as the warfare is, such are the arms. If our warfare is
spiritual, we ought to be furnished with spiritual armour.’418 Margaret
doubtless says the same thing; but she is the king’s sister,
summoned to his council, accustomed to diplomacy, respected by
foreign princes; she hopes that a union with the evangelical rulers of
Germany may hasten on the Reformation of France. Finally, while
Calvin desires truth in the Church above all things, Margaret clings to
the preservation of its unity, and thus becomes the noble
representative of a system still lauded by some protestants—to
reform the Church without breaking it up: a specious system,
impossible to be realised. And yet this illustrious lady, in spite of her
errors, plays a great part in the history of the Reformation: she was
respected by the most pious reformers. An impartial historian should
brave hostile prejudices, and assign her the place which is her due.

Let us enter upon the French Reformation at the moment when,

after great but isolated preparations, it is beginning to occupy a
place in the affairs of the nation.419

The defeat at Pavia had plunged France into mourning. There was
not a house where they did not weep for a son, a husband, or a
father; and the whole kingdom was plunged in sorrow at seeing its
king a prisoner. The recoil of this great disaster had not long to be
waited for. ‘The gods chastise us: let us fall upon the christians,’ said
the Romans of the first centuries; the persecuting spirit of Rome
woke up in France. ‘It is our tenderness towards the Lutherans that
has drawn upon us the vengeance of heaven,’ said the zealous
catholics, who conceived the idea of appeasing heaven by
hecatombs.

The great news of Pavia which saddened all France was received in
Spain with transports of joy. At the time when the battle was fought,
the young emperor was in Castile, anxiously expecting news from
Italy. On the 10th of March, 1525, he was discussing, in one of the
halls of the palace at Madrid, the advantages of Francis I. and the
critical situation of the imperial army.420 ‘We shall conquer,’ Pescara
had written to him, ‘or else we shall die.’ At this moment a courier
from Lombardy appeared at the gate of the palace: he was
introduced immediately. ‘Sire,’ said he, bending the knee before the
emperor in the midst of his court, ‘the French army is annihilated,
and the King of France in your Majesty’s hands.’ Charles, startled by
the unexpected news, stood pale and motionless; it seemed as if the
blood had stagnated in his veins. For some moments he did not utter
a word, and all around him, affected like himself, looked at him in
silence. At last the ambitious prince said slowly, as if speaking to
himself: ‘The king of France is my prisoner.... I have won the battle.’
Then, without a word to any one, he entered his bed-room and fell
on his knees before an image of the Virgin, to whom he gave thanks
for the victory. He meditated before this image on the great exploits
to which he now thought himself called. To become the master of
Europe, to reestablish everywhere the tottering catholicism, to take
Constantinople, and even to recover Jerusalem—such was the task
which Charles prayed the Virgin to put him in a condition to carry
through. If these ambitious projects had been realised, the revival of
learning would have been compromised, the Reformation ruined, the
new ideas rooted out, and the whole world would have bowed
helplessly beneath two swords—that of the emperor first, and then
that of the pope. At length Charles rose from his knees; he read the
humble letters of the King of France, gave orders for processions to
be made, and attended mass next day with every mark of the
greatest devotion.421
All christendom thought as this potentate did: a shudder ran through
Europe, and every man said to himself as he bent his head: ‘Behold
the master whom the fates assign us!’ At Naples a devout voice was
heard to exclaim: ‘Thou hast laid the world at his feet!’

It has been said that if in our day a king should be made prisoner,
the heir to the throne or a regent would succeed to all his rights; but
in the sixteenth century, omnipotence dwelt in the monarch’s
person, and from the depths of his dungeon he could bind his
country by the most disastrous treaties.422 Charles V. determined to
profit by this state of things. He assembled his council. The cruel
Duke of Alva eloquently conjured him not to release his rival until he
had deprived him of all power to injure him. ‘In whom is insolence
more natural,’ he said, ‘in whom is fickleness more instinctive than in
the French? What can we expect from a king of France?... Invincible
emperor, do not miss the opportunity of increasing the authority of
the empire, not for your own glory, but for the service of God.’423
Charles V. appeared to yield to the duke’s advice, but it was advice
according to his own heart; and while repeating that a christian
prince ought not to triumph in his victory over another, he resolved
to crush his rival. M. de Beaurain, viceroy of Naples, Lannoy, and the
Constable of Bourbon, so detested by Francis I., waited all three
upon the royal captive.

Francis had overplayed the part of a suppliant, a character so new

for him. ‘Instead of a useless prisoner,’ he had written to Charles,
‘set at liberty a king who will be your slave for ever.’ Charles
proposed to him a dismemberment of France on three sides. The
Constable of Bourbon was to have Provence and Dauphiny, and
these provinces, united with the Bourbonnais which he possessed
already, were to be raised into an independent kingdom. The King of
England was to have Normandy and Guienne; and the emperor
would be satisfied with French Flanders, Picardy, and Burgundy....
When he heard these monstrous propositions, Francis uttered a cry
and caught up his sword, which his attendants took from his hands.
Turning towards the envoys he said: ‘I would rather die in prison
than consent to such demands.’ Thinking that he could make better
terms with the emperor, he soon after embarked at Genoa and sailed
to Spain. The delighted Charles gave up to him the palace of Madrid,
and employed every means to constrain him to accept his disastrous
conditions.424 Who will succeed in baffling the emperor’s pernicious
designs? A woman, Margaret of Valois, undertook the task.425 The
statesmen of her age considered her the best head in Europe; the
friends of the Reformation respected her as their mother. Her
dearest wish was to substitute a living christianity for the dead forms
of popery, and she hoped to prevail upon her brother, ‘the father of
letters,’ to labour with her in this admirable work. It was not in
France only that she desired the triumph of the Gospel, but in
Germany, England, Italy, and even Spain. As Charles’s projects would
ruin all that she loved—the king, France, and the Gospel—she feared
not to go and beard the lion even in his den.

The duchess as she entered Spain felt her heart deeply agitated.
The very day she had heard of the battle of Pavia, she had
courageously taken this heavy cross upon her shoulders; but at
times she fainted under the burden. Impatient to reach her brother,
burning with desire to save him, fearing lest she should find him
dying, trembling lest the persecutors should take advantage of her
absence to crush the Gospel and religious liberty in France, she
found no rest but at the feet of the Saviour. Many evangelical men
wept and prayed with her; they sought to raise her drooping
courage under the great trial which threatened to weigh her down,
and bore a noble testimony to her piety. ‘There are various stations
in the christian life,’ said one of these reformers, Capito. ‘You have
now entered upon that commonly called the Way of the Cross.426 ...
Despising the theology of men, you desire to know only Jesus Christ
and Him crucified.’427

Margaret crossing in her litter (September 1525) the plains of

Catalonia, Arragon, and Castile, exclaimed:
I cast my eyes around,
I look and look in vain ...
The loved one cometh not;
And on my knees again
I pray unceasing to my God
To heal the king—to spare the rod.

The loved one cometh not ...

Tears on my eyelids sit:
Then to this virgin page
My sorrows I commit:—
Such is to wretched me
Each day of misery.428

She sometimes fancied that she could see in the distance a

messenger riding hastily from Madrid and bringing her news of her
brother.... But alas! her imagination had deceived her, no one
appeared. She then wrote:

O Lord, awake, arise!

And let thine eyes in mercy fall
Upon the king—upon us all.

Once or twice a day she halted at some inn on the road to Madrid,
but it was not to eat. ‘I have supped only once since my departure
from Aigues-Mortes,’ she said.429 As soon as she entered the
wretched chamber, she began to write to her brother at the table or
on her knees. ‘Nothing to do you service,’ she wrote: ‘nothing, even
to casting the ashes of my bones to the wind, will be strange or
painful to me; but rather consolation, repose, and honour.’430
The defeat of Pavia and the excessive demands of Charles V. had
given the king such shocks that he had fallen seriously ill; the
emperor had therefore gone to Madrid to be near him. On
Wednesday, September 19, 1525, Margaret arrived in that capital.
Charles received her surrounded by a numerous court, and
respectfully approaching her, this politic and phlegmatic prince kissed
her on the forehead and offered her his hand. Margaret, followed by
the noble dames and lords of France who had accompanied her, and
wearing a plain dress of black velvet without any ornament, passed
between two lines of admiring courtiers. The emperor conducted her
as far as the door of her brother’s apartments, and then withdrew.

Margaret rushed in; but alas! what did she find? a dying man, pale,
worn, helpless. Francis was on the brink of the grave, and his
attendants seemed to be waiting for his last breath. The duchess
approached the bed softly, so as not to be heard by the sick man;
unobserved she fixed on him a look of the tenderest solicitude, and
her soul, strengthened by an unwavering faith, did not hesitate; she
believed in her brother’s cure, she had prayed so fervently. She
seemed to hear in the depths of her heart an answer from God to
her prayers; and while all around the prince, who was almost a
corpse, bowed their heads in dark despair, Margaret raised hers with
hope towards heaven.

Prudent, skilful, decided, active, a Martha as well as a Mary, she

established herself at once in the king’s chamber, and took the
supreme direction. ‘If she had not come he would have died,’ said
Brantôme.431 ‘I know my brother’s temperament,’ she said, ‘better
than the doctors.’ In spite of their resistance, she had the treatment
changed; then she sat down at the patient’s bedside, and left him no
more. While the king slept, she prayed; when he awoke, she spoke
to him in encouraging language. The faith of the sister gradually
dispelled the brother’s dejection. She spoke to him of the love of
Christ; she proposed to him to commemorate his atoning death by
celebrating the holy eucharist. Francis consented. He had hardly
communicated when he appeared to wake up as if from a deep
sleep; he sat up in his bed, fixed his eyes on his sister, and said:
‘God will heal me body and soul.’ Margaret in great emotion
answered: ‘Yes, God will raise you up again and make you free.’
From that hour the king gradually recovered his strength, and he
would often say: ‘But for her, I was a dead man.’432

Margaret, seeing her brother restored to life, thought only of

restoring him to liberty. She departed for Toledo, where Charles V.
was staying; the seneschal and seneschaless of Poitou, the Bishop of
Senlis, the Archbishop of Embrun, the president De Selves, and
several other nobles, accompanied her. What a journey! Will she
succeed in touching her brother’s gaoler, or will she fail? This
question was continually before her mind. Hope, fear, indignation
moved her by turns; at every step her agitation increased. The
emperor went out courteously to meet her; he helped her to
descend from her litter, and had his first conversation with her in the
Alcazar, that old and magnificent palace of the Moorish kings.
Charles V. was determined to take advantage of his victory.
Notwithstanding the outward marks of politeness, exacted by the
etiquette of courts, he wrapped himself up in imperturbable dignity,
and was cold, nay, almost harsh. Margaret, seeing that her brother’s
conqueror kept the foot upon his neck, and was determined not to
remove it, could no longer contain herself. ‘She broke out into great
anger:’433 like a lioness robbed of her cubs, full of majesty and fury,
she startled the cold and formal Charles, says Brantôme. Yet he
restrained himself, preserved his icy mien, made no answer to the
duchess, and busying himself with showing her the honours due to
her rank, he conducted her, accompanied by the Archbishop of
Toledo and several Spanish noblemen, to the palace of Don Diego de
Mendoza, which had been prepared for her.

Alone in her chamber the princess gave free vent to her tears; she
wrote to Francis: ‘I found him very cold.’434 She reminded him that
the King of heaven ‘has placed on his throne an ensign of grace;
that we have no reason to fear the majesty of heaven will reject us;
and that he stretches out his hand to us, even before we seek for it.’
And being thus strengthened, she prepared for the solemn sitting at
which she was to plead her brother’s cause. She quitted the palace
with emotion to appear before the council extraordinary, at which
the emperor and his ministers sat with all the grandeur and pride of
Castile. Margaret was not intimidated, and though she could not
perceive the least mark of interest on the severe and motionless
faces of her judges, ‘she was triumphant in speaking and pleading.’
But she returned bowed down with sorrow: the immovable severity
of the emperor and of his councillors dismayed her. ‘The thing is
worsened,’ she said, ‘far more than I had imagined.’435

The Duchess of Alençon, firmer than her brother, would not agree to
the cession of Burgundy. The emperor replied with irritation: ‘It is
my patrimonial estate—I still bear the name and the arms.’ The
duchess, confounded by Charles’s harshness, threw herself into the
arms of God. ‘When men fail, God does not forget,’ she said. She
clung to the rock; ‘she leant,’ says Erasmus, ‘upon the unchangeable
rock which is called Christ.’436

She soon regained her courage, asked for another audience,

returned to the attack, and her agitated soul spoke with new
eloquence to the emperor and his ministers. Never had the Escurial
or the Alcazar seen a petitioner so ardent and so persevering. She
returned to her apartments in alternations of sorrow and joy.
‘Sometimes I get a kind word,’ she wrote, ‘and then suddenly all is
changed. I have to deal with the greatest of dissemblers.’437 This
beautiful and eloquent ambassadress filled the Spaniards with
admiration. They talked at court of nothing but the sister of Francis
I. Letters received in France and Germany from Madrid and Toledo
extolled her sweetness, energy, and virtues. The scholars of Europe
felt their love and respect for her increase, and were proud of a
princess whom they looked upon as their Mæcenas. What charmed
them was something more than that inquiring spirit which had led
Margaret in her earliest years towards literature and divinity, and had
made her learn Latin and Hebrew;438 Erasmus enthusiastically
exclaimed when he heard of the wonders she was doing in Spain:
‘How can we help loving, in God, such a heroine, such an
amazon?’439 The courage with which the Duchess of Alençon had
gone to Spain to save her brother led some christians to imagine
that she would display the same heroism in delivering the Church
from her long captivity.
 CHAPTER II.
MARGARET SAVES THE EVANGELICALS AND THE KING.

(1525-1526.)

T HE captive Francis was not Margaret’s only sorrow. If her brother

was a prisoner to the emperor, her brethren in the faith were
prisoners to her mother. The parliament of Paris having issued a
decree against the Lutherans, and the pope having on the 17th of
March invested with apostolical authority the councillors authorised
to proceed against them,440 the persecutors set vigorously to work.
The regent Louisa of Savoy, mother of Francis I. and of Margaret,
inquired of the Sorbonne: ‘By what means the damnable doctrine of
Luther could be extirpated?’ The fanatic Beda, syndic of that
corporation, enchanted with such a demand, replied without
hesitation on the part of the Faculties: ‘It must be punished with the
utmost severity.’ Accordingly Louisa published letters-patent, ‘to
extinguish the damnable heresy of Luther.’441

France began to seek in persecution an atonement for the faults

which had led to the defeat of Pavia. Many evangelical christians
were either seized or banished. Marot, valet-de-chambre to the
Duchess of Alençon, the best poet of his age, who never spared the
priests, and translated the Psalms of David into verse, was arrested;
Lefèvre, Roussel, and others had to flee; Caroli and Mazurier
recanted the faith they had professed.442 ‘Alas!’ said Roussel, ‘no one
can confess Jesus any longer except at the risk of his life.’443—‘It is
the hour of triumph,’444 proudly said Beda and the men of the Roman
party. A blow more grievous still was about to reach Margaret.
A gentleman, a friend of Erasmus, of letters, and especially of
Scripture, who had free access to the court of the duchess, and with
whom that princess loved to converse about the Gospel and the new
times—Berquin had been arrested on a charge of heresy; then set at
liberty in 1523 by the intercession of Margaret and the king’s orders.
Leaving Paris, he had gone to his native province of Artois. A man of
upright heart, generous soul, and intrepid zeal, ‘in whom you could
see depicted the marks of a great mind,’ says the chronicler, he
worthily represented by his character that nobility of France, and
especially of Artois, so distinguished at all times by its devotedness
and valour. Happy in the liberty which God had given him, Berquin
had sworn to consecrate it to him, and was zealously propagating in
the cottages on his estate the doctrine of salvation by Christ
alone.445 The ancient country of the Atrebates, wonderfully fertile as
regards the fruits of the earth, was equally fertile as regards the
seed from heaven. Berquin attacked the priesthood such as Rome
had made it. He said: ‘You will often meet with these words in Holy
Scripture: honourable marriage, undefiled bed, but of celibacy you
will not find a syllable.’ Another time he said: ‘I have not yet known
a monastery which was not infected with hatred and dissension.’
Such language, repeated in the refectories and long galleries of the
convents, filled the monks with anger against this noble friend of
learning. But he did not stop there: ‘We must teach the Lord’s flock,’
he said, ‘to pray with understanding, that they may no longer be
content to gabble with their lips like ducks with their bills, without
comprehending what they say.’—‘He is attacking us,’ said the
chaplains. Berquin did not, however, always indulge in this caustic
humour; he was a pious christian, and desired to see a holy and
living unity succeed the parties that divided the Roman Church. He
said: ‘We ought not to hear these words among christians; I am of
the Sorbonne, I am of Luther; or, I am a Grey-friar, or Dominican, or
Bernardite.... Would it be too much then to say: I am a christian?...
Jesus who came for us all ought not to be divided by us.’446

But this language aroused still greater hatred. The priests and
nobles, who were firmly attached to ancient usages, rose up against
him; they attacked him in the parishes and châteaux, and even went
to him and strove to detach him from the new ideas which alarmed
them. ‘Stop!’ they said with a sincerity which we cannot doubt, ‘stop,
or it is all over with the Roman hierarchy.’ Berquin smiled, but
moderated his language; he sought to make men understand that
God loves those whom he calls to believe in Jesus Christ, and
applied himself ‘to scattering the divine seed’ with unwearied
courage. With the Testament in his hand, he perambulated the
neighbourhood of Abbeville, the banks of the Somme, the towns,
manors, and fields of Artois and Picardy, filling them with the Word
of God.

These districts were in the see of Amiens, and every day some
noble, priest, or peasant went to the palace and reported some
evangelical speech or act of this christian gentleman. The bishop, his
vicars and canons met and consulted together. On a sudden the
bishop started for Paris, eager to get rid of the evangelist who was
creating a disturbance throughout the north of France. He waited
upon the archbishop and the doctors of the Sorbonne; he described
to them the heretical exertions of the gentleman, the irritation of the
priests, and the scandal of the faithful. The Sorbonne assembled and
went to work: unable to seize Berquin, they seized his books,
examined them, and ‘after the manner of spiders sucked from them
certain articles,’ says Crespin, ‘to make poison and bring about the
death of a person who, with integrity and simplicity of mind, was
endeavouring to advance the doctrine of God.’447 Beda especially
took a violent part against the evangelist. This suspicious and
arbitrary doctor, a thorough inquisitor, who possessed a remarkable
talent for discovering in a book everything that could ruin a man by
the help of forced interpretations, was seen poring night and day
over Berquin’s volumes. He read in them: ‘The Virgin Mary is
improperly invoked instead of the Holy Ghost.’—‘Point against the
accused,’ said Beda.—He continued: ‘There are no grounds for
calling her a treasury of grace, our hope, our life: qualities which
belong essentially to our Saviour alone.’—Confirmation!—‘Faith alone
justifies.’—Deadly heresy!—‘Neither the gates of hell, nor Satan, nor
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