Mark Scheme

Mock Paper Set 2

Pearson Edexcel GCE Further Mathematics

Further Statistics 1 Paper 9FM0_3B
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Mock paper
Publications Code 9FM0_3B_Mock paper_MS
All the material in this publication is copyright
© Pearson Education Ltd 2020
General Marking Guidance

• All candidates must receive the same treatment. Examiners

must mark the first candidate in exactly the same way as they
mark the last.
• Mark schemes should be applied positively. Candidates must
be rewarded for what they have shown they can do rather than
penalised for omissions.
• Examiners should mark according to the mark scheme not
according to their perception of where the grade boundaries
may lie.
• There is no ceiling on achievement. All marks on the mark
scheme should be used appropriately.
• All the marks on the mark scheme are designed to be awarded.
Examiners should always award full marks if deserved, i.e. if
the answer matches the mark scheme. Examiners should also
be prepared to award zero marks if the candidate’s response
is not worthy of credit according to the mark scheme.
• Where some judgement is required, mark schemes will
provide the principles by which marks will be awarded and
exemplification may be limited.
• When examiners are in doubt regarding the application of the
mark scheme to a candidate’s response, the team leader must
be consulted.
• Crossed out work should be marked UNLESS the candidate has
replaced it with an alternative response.
 EDEXCEL GCE MATHEMATICS

General Instructions for Marking

1. The total number of marks for the paper is 75.

2. The Edexcel Mathematics mark schemes use the following types of marks:

• M marks: method marks are awarded for ‘knowing a method and

attempting to apply it’, unless otherwise indicated.
• A marks: Accuracy marks can only be awarded if the relevant method (M)
marks have been earned.
• B marks are unconditional accuracy marks (independent of M marks)
• Marks should not be subdivided.

3. Abbreviations

These are some of the traditional marking abbreviations that will appear in the
mark schemes.

• bod – benefit of doubt

• ft – follow through
• the symbol will be used for correct ft
• cao – correct answer only
• cso - correct solution only. There must be no errors in this part of the
question to obtain this mark
• isw – ignore subsequent working
• awrt – answers which round to
• SC: special case
• oe – or equivalent (and appropriate)
• dep – dependent
• indep – independent
• dp decimal places
• sf significant figures
•  The answer is printed on the paper
• The second mark is dependent on gaining the first mark
4. For misreading which does not alter the character of a question or
materially simplify it, deduct two from any A or B marks gained, in that part
of the question affected.

5. Where a candidate has made multiple responses and indicates which

response they wish to submit, examiners should mark this response.
If there are several attempts at a question which have not been crossed
out, examiners should mark the final answer which is the answer that is the
most complete.

6. Ignore wrong working or incorrect statements following a correct

answer.

7. Mark schemes will firstly show the solution judged to be the most
common response expected from candidates. Where appropriate,
alternatives answers are provided in the notes. If examiners are not
sure if an answer is acceptable, they will check the mark scheme to see
if an alternative answer is given for the method used.
 General Principles for Core Mathematics Marking
(But note that specific mark schemes may sometimes override these general principles)

Method mark for solving 3 term quadratic:

1. Factorisation

( x 2 + bx + c) = ( x + p )( x + q ), where pq = c , leading to x = ...

(ax 2 + bx + c) = (mx + p )(nx + q ), where pq = c and mn = a , leading to x = ...

2. Formula
Attempt to use the correct formula (with values for a, b and c)
3. Completing the square
2
 b
Solving x + bx + c =
2
c 0, q ≠ 0 , leading to x = ...
0 :  x ±  ± q ±=
 2
Method marks for differentiation and integration:
1. Differentiation
n −1
Power of at least one term decreased by 1. ( x → x )
n

2. Integration
n +1
Power of at least one term increased by 1. ( x → x )
n

Use of a formula
Where a method involves using a formula that has been learnt, the advice
given in recent examiners’ reports is that the formula should be quoted
first.
Normal marking procedure is as follows:
Method mark for quoting a correct formula and attempting to use it,
even if there are small errors in the substitution of values.
Where the formula is not quoted, the method mark can be gained by
implication from correct working with values but may be lost if there is
any mistake in the working.
Exact answers
Examiners’ reports have emphasised that where, for example, an exact
answer is asked for, or working with surds is clearly required, marks will
normally be lost if the candidate resorts to using rounded decimals.
 1)
Using 𝑋𝑋~B(120, 0.1)
P(𝑋𝑋 < 10) = P(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 9) = 0.2285916 … B1 1.1b
Approximation 𝑋𝑋 ≈ ~Po(12) B1 3.1a
Using Poisson approximation
P(𝑋𝑋 < 10) = P(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 9) = 0.2423921 … M1 1.1b
Error = 0.2423921 … − 0.2285916 … = 0.0138005 … = 0.0138* A1* 1.1b
(4)
(4)

Notes

1st B1 from calculator awrt 0.23

2nd B1 Po(12) seen or implied

M1 Use of their Poisson approximation

A1* cso
 2)
(a) (G𝑋𝑋 (1) =)
13
((1 + 1)2 + 2 × 14 ) =
6
=1 M1 1.1b
𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘

A1cao 1.1b
𝑘𝑘 = 6
(2)
(b) 3
𝑡𝑡
G𝑋𝑋 (𝑡𝑡) = (1 + 2𝑡𝑡 + 𝑡𝑡 2 + 2𝑡𝑡 4 ) = M1 3.1a
"6"
𝑡𝑡 3 𝑡𝑡 4 𝑡𝑡 5 𝑡𝑡 7
+ + + M1 1.1b
6 3 6 3
Probability distribution
x (3) 4 5 (7)
P(X = x) 1
( ) 1 1 1
( ) A1 1.1b
6 3
3 6

1 1 1 M1 3.4
P(4 ≤ 𝑋𝑋 ≤ 6.5) = + =
3 6 2 A1cao 1.1b
(5)
(c) G𝑋𝑋1 +𝑋𝑋2 (𝑡𝑡) = G𝑋𝑋1 (𝑡𝑡) × G𝑋𝑋2 (𝑡𝑡) =
𝑡𝑡 6
((1 + 𝑡𝑡)2 + 2𝑡𝑡 4 )2 oe
36 B1ft 1.2
(1)
(8)

Notes

a) M1 Use of GX(1) = 1

A1 cao

b) 1st M1 expanding /simplifying terms

2nd M1 finding coefficients of each power of t

1st A1 sample space identified and correct coefficients as probabilities of at least X = 4 and
X= 5

3rd M1 use of probability distribution to find required probability

2nd A1 cao

c) B1 squaring PGF ft their value of k.

 3)
(a) ( Gill, 𝑌𝑌~Po(2.1) ) Jack, 𝑋𝑋~Bin(3, 0.6) B1 3.3
P(𝑋𝑋 = 3) = 0.216 and P(𝑌𝑌 = 3) = 0.189011 … M1 3.4
P(𝑋𝑋 = 3 ∩ 𝑌𝑌 = 3) = 0.216 × 0.189 … = 0.04082 … awrt 0.0408 A1 1.1b
(3)
(b) P(𝑋𝑋 > 𝑌𝑌) =
P(𝑋𝑋 = 1 ∩ 𝑌𝑌 = 0) + P(𝑋𝑋 = 2 ∩ 𝑌𝑌 ≤ 1) + P(𝑋𝑋 = 3 ∩ 𝑌𝑌 ≤ 2) = M1 2.1
(0.288 × 0.12245 … ) + (0.432 × 0.3796 … ) + (0.216 × 0.6496 … ) A1 1.1b
A1 1.1b
= 0.33958 … awrt 0.339/0.340 A1 1.1b
(4)
(c) E.g.
• Constant rate of successful journeys unreasonable as Gill may get B1 3.5b
tired
• Gill cannot complete 2 journeys very close together
• Spilling water may make slope slippery and so subsequent
journeys more difficult.
(1)
(8)

Notes

(a) B1 distribution of X, Bin( 3, 0.6 ) must include both parameters

M1 use of correct distributions to calculate both probabilities, may be implied by correct

answer.

A1 awrt 0.0408

(b) M1 complete method all cases

1st A1 at least one case showing correct calculations

2nd A1 all calculations correct

3rd A1 awrt 0.339 or 0.340

SC correct answer with no working shown scores M1A1A1A0

(c) B1 for any reasonable point made in context.

 4)
(a) E.g. large supply of objects or interesting objects evenly distributed B1 3.5b
across the field
(1)
(b) Use of 𝑋𝑋~Geo(0.1) = number of finds in 1 day M1 3.3

P(𝑋𝑋 = 7) = 0.1 × 0.96 M1 3.4

=0.0531441
awrt 0.0531 A1 1.1b

(3)
(c) P(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 8) = M1 3.4
P(𝑋𝑋 = 8) 0.1 × 0.97
= = M1 1.1b
1 − 0.9 0.1

0.4782969
awrt 0.478 A1 1.1b
(3)
(d) P(𝑋𝑋 < 7) = 1 − ‘0.0531…’ – ‘0.478…’ = (0.468559) M1 3.1b
𝑌𝑌~Bin(5, ′ 0.468559′) dM1 3.4
P(𝑌𝑌 = 3) = 0.290538 …
awrt 0.291 A1 1.1b
(3)
(e) 1 1−0.1 M1 3.3
E(𝑋𝑋) = = 10, Var(𝑋𝑋) = = 90
0.1 0.12
A1 1.1b
′90′ M1 2.1
𝑋𝑋� ≈ ~N �′10′, �
80
P(𝑋𝑋� < 9) = 0.172889 …
awrt 0.173 A1 1.1b
(4)
(14)

Notes

(a) B1 any appropriate comment in context

(b) 1st M1 Use of Geo(0.1), may be implied by next line or correct answer

2nd M1 attempt to use correct probability distribution

A1 awrt 0.0531

(c) 1st M1 correct method, may use 1 − P(𝑋𝑋 ≤ 7)

2nd M1 use of sum of infinite GP or 1 − sum of first 7 terms

A1 awrt 0.478

Alternate method

1st M1 P(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 8) = P(no interesting objects in first 7)

2nd M1 for 0.97

A1 awrt 0.478

(d) 1st M1 attempt to find correct probability, may find as sum of gp

2nd M1 dependent on 1st M1, using their P(𝑋𝑋 < 7)

A1 awrt 0.291

(e) 1st M1 attempt to find mean and variance

1st A1 both correct

2nd M1 Use of central limit theorem with their mean and variance

2nd A1 (from calculator or otherwise) awrt 0.173

 5)
(a) 2 2 1 M1 2.1
P(𝑌𝑌 = 1) = P(two +1 moves and one -1 move) = 3 × � � ×
3 3
12 4 A1cso 1.1b
= =
27 9

(2)
(b) Possible values of Y = {-3, -1, 1, 3} B1 3.1b
Probability distribution of Y
y -3 -1 1 3
P(Y = y) 1 6 12 8 B1 1.1b
27 27 27 27 B1 1.1b

1 6 12 8
E(𝑌𝑌) = −3 × + −1 × +1× +3× =1
27 27 27 27 M1 3.4

1 6 12 8 99 11 dM1 1.1b
E(𝑌𝑌 2 ) = (−3)2 × + (−1)2 × + 12 × + 32 × = =
27 27 27 27 27 3

11 8
Var(𝑌𝑌) = − 12 = A1cao 1.1b
3 3

(6)
(c) 𝐷𝐷 = |𝑌𝑌|, so all values of D are positive but probability structure the same B1 2.1

∴E(𝐷𝐷)>E(𝑌𝑌) and E(𝐷𝐷 2 )=E(𝑌𝑌 2 ) M1 2.4

∴Var(𝐷𝐷)<Var(𝑌𝑌) A1 2.2a
(3)
(11)

Notes

(a) M1 clear method, could be just calculation shown

A1 cso

(b) 1st B1 complete sample space as list or in probability distribution

2nd B1 correct probabilities for y = -3 and y = 3

3rd B1 all correct

1st M1 correct working using their probabilities, so long as ∑ P(𝑌𝑌 = 𝑦𝑦) = 1

2nd M1 dependent on 1st M1, for correct method for E(𝑌𝑌 2 )

8
A1 oe cao
3
Alternate Method
2
1st B1 Let rv X = number of +1 moves, 𝑋𝑋~Bin �3, �
3

2nd B1 𝑌𝑌 = 𝑋𝑋 − (3 − 𝑋𝑋)

3rd B1 𝑌𝑌 = 2𝑋𝑋 − 3

1st M1 Var(𝑌𝑌) = 22 Var(𝑋𝑋)

2 1
2nd dM1 Var(𝑌𝑌) = 22 × 3 × ×
3 3
8
A1 Var(𝑌𝑌) = oe cao
3

(c) B1 use of 𝐷𝐷 = |𝑌𝑌|

M1 correct comparison of both sets of expectations, or valid attempt to calculate Var(𝐷𝐷)

8
A1 full explanation or Var(𝐷𝐷) = and correct conclusion
9
 6)
(a) H0: Po(2.4) is a suitable model for the number of whale sightings per trip
H1: Po(2.4) is not a suitable model for the number of whale sightings per B1 2.5
trip
Assuming H0 is true , expected values are E𝑖𝑖 = 60 × e−2.4 ×
2.4 𝑖𝑖 M1 3.4
𝑖𝑖!

No of 0 1 2 3 4 5 ≥6
sightings
Expected 5.44… 13.06… 15.67… 12.54… 7.52… 3.61… 2.14… A1 1.1b
frequency

No of 0 1 2 3 4 ≥5
sightings
Observed 4 18 20 8 6 4
frequency
Expected 5.44… 13.06… 15.67… 12.54… 7.52… 5.75…
frequency M1 2.1

Combining groups

𝜈𝜈 = 6 − 1 = 5
B1ft 1.1b
Critical value, 𝜒𝜒 2 (0.10) = 9.236 B1ft 1.1a

Test statistic =
(4−5.44)2
+
(18−13.06)2
+
(20−15.67)2
+
(8−12.54)2
+
(6−7.52)2
+ M1 1.1b
5.44 13.06 15.67 12.54 7.52
(4−5.75)2
=
5.75
0.3825. . +1.8655. . +1.1926. . +1.6441. . +0.3088. . +0.5337. . = 5.927… A1 1.1b
awrt 5.9

Test statistic is not in the critical region, so no significant evidence against

the owner’s claim. A1cso 3.5a
(9)
(b) Should be recorded as a single sighting B1 2.4

Since for a Poisson model events occur singly B1 3.5b

(2)
(11)

Notes

(a) 1st B1 both hypotheses, must include the 2.4

1st M1 correct use of Poisson distribution, may be implied

1st A1 all correct to 1dp

2nd M1 combining groups

2nd B1 ft their groups

3rd B1 ft their degrees of freedom

3rd M1 at least 2 terms shown (give if test value correct and no working shown)

2nd A1 awrt 5.9

3rd A1 correct conclusion in context, cso

(b) 1st B1 explanation of how to record the sighting

2nd B1 stating necessary assumption for Poisson distribution

 7)
(a) P(Type I error) = P(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 𝑐𝑐) ≈ 0.05 M1 3.1a
P(Type I error) = ∑𝑖𝑖=∞
𝑖𝑖=𝑐𝑐 0.4 × 0.6
𝑖𝑖−1
≈ 0.05
M1 2.1
0.4 × 0.6𝑐𝑐−1
∴ ≈ 0.05 M1 1.1b
1 − 0.6

0.6𝑐𝑐−1 = 0.05
𝑐𝑐 − 1 =
log0.05
≈ 5.86 M1 1.1b
log0.6
𝑐𝑐 ≈ 6.86 A1 1.1b
𝑐𝑐 = 6, P(Type I error) = 0.07776, 𝑐𝑐 = 7, P(Type I error) = 0.046656
So critical region is 𝑋𝑋 ≥ 7 (closest to 0.05) A1cso 2.2a
(6)
(b) 𝑟𝑟=𝑐𝑐−1

P(Type II error) = P(𝑋𝑋 < 𝑐𝑐|𝑝𝑝 = 𝛽𝛽) = � 𝛽𝛽(1 − 𝛽𝛽)𝑟𝑟−1 M1 2.1

𝑟𝑟=1

𝛽𝛽(1 − (1 − 𝛽𝛽)6 ) A1ft 1.1b

= = 0.5
1 − (1 − 𝛽𝛽)
1 − (1 − 𝛽𝛽)6 = 0.5
(1 − 𝛽𝛽)6 = 0.5
6
𝛽𝛽 = 1 − √0.5 = 0.1091 … M1 1.1b
awrt 0.109 A1 1.1b
(4)
(10)

Notes

(a) 1st M1 correct definition of Type I error, may be implied

2nd M1 attempt at correct geometric series

3rd M1 use of infinite GP formula,

Alt method 3rd M1 accept P(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 𝑐𝑐) = 0.6𝑐𝑐−1 = 0.05

4th M1 solved using logs

1st A1 awrt 6.9

2nd A1 cso all correct with reason for choosing 7 not 6

(b) 1st M1 correct series for P(Type II error)

1st A1 use of GP summation, ft their c (must be positive integer),

or P(𝑋𝑋 < 7) = (1 − (1 − 𝛽𝛽)6 ) = 0.5

2nd M1 solving for 𝛽𝛽

2nd A1 awrt 0.109

 8)
(a) Geometric distribution B1 1.2
(1)
(b) 2 2(1−𝑝𝑝) 2 2
If Var(𝑋𝑋) = �E(𝑋𝑋)� , then = � � , ∴ 1 − 𝑝𝑝 = 2
𝑝𝑝2 𝑝𝑝 M1 2.1

𝑝𝑝 = −1 A1 1.1b
where p is a probability, so impossible A1 2.4
(3)
(c) 1 − 𝑝𝑝
20 =
𝑝𝑝2 M1 3.1b

20𝑝𝑝2 + 𝑝𝑝 − 1 = 0 A1 1.1b
𝑝𝑝 = 0.2 (or 𝑝𝑝 = −0.25)
𝑝𝑝 = 0.2 A1 2.2a
(3)
(d) P(𝑋𝑋 = 5|𝑌𝑌 = 2) = P(𝑌𝑌2 = 3) (= 0.62 × 0.4) M1 3.1b
= 0.144 A1cao 1.1b
(2)
(9)

Notes

(b) M1 setting up equation using correct formulae, can have r rather than 2

1st A1 solving to give p=-1 (or p is negative for general r > 1)

2nd A1 correct reason

(c) M1 correct equation

1st A1 rearranging to give correct quadratic

2nd A1 for 𝑝𝑝 = 0.2 only, A0 if 𝑝𝑝 = −0.25 also given and not rejected

(d) M1 correct method, may be implied by working or correct answer

A1 0.144 only

RJ Freeman (01/04/2019)