Population, Development & Globalization (Part I)

1. Introduction
Why Study Population, Development, and Globalization?
 These three factors are interconnected and shape economic growth, employment, and
social structures.
 Understanding these topics is crucial for policy-making, labor market dynamics, and
global economic shifts.
 The UPSC EPFO exam covers these concepts in depth, making them important for
aspirants.
Segmented Breakdown:
 Human Resources & Economic Development
 Population and Production
 Labor Force Participation
 Key Theories of Population Growth
 Future Challenges & Policy Considerations

2. Human Resources & Economic Development

What are Human Resources?
 Human resources refer to the labor force—both skilled and unskilled—that
contributes to economic activities.
 A well-educated and healthy population leads to higher productivity and economic
development.
Key Points:
✔ Human resources drive economic growth by increasing productivity and innovation.
✔ A larger population can enhance production potential but requires proper resource
management.
✔ Economic development must focus on human capital formation (education, healthcare,
training).
Example:
 Countries like Japan and Germany have limited natural resources but strong human
capital, leading to high economic development.
 In contrast, India and China, with large populations, have leveraged human
resources for industrial growth.

3. Population and Production

How Population Size Affects Production?
  A larger workforce contributes to increased production and economic output.
 Productivity depends on education, training, and availability of infrastructure.
Challenges:
❌ Uncontrolled population growth can strain resources (food, water, healthcare).
❌ High population density leads to overcrowding and unemployment.
❌ Poor infrastructure limits economic expansion (lack of roads, electricity, irrigation).
Example:
 China’s One-Child Policy helped control population growth and focus on
productivity.
 India’s demographic dividend (large working-age population) can drive economic
growth if properly utilized.

4. Labor Force Participation

Factors Influencing Labor Force Participation:
🔹 Demographics: A high youth dependency ratio means fewer working individuals per
dependent.
🔹 Skill Levels: A skilled workforce is more productive and innovative.
🔹 Gender Inclusion: Women’s participation in labor boosts economic growth (e.g.,
Bangladesh’s garment industry).
Skilled vs. Unskilled Labor:
✔ Skilled Labor: Engineers, doctors, IT professionals—drive innovation.
✔ Unskilled Labor: Agricultural workers, factory workers—support basic production.
Case Study:
 Germany’s Vocational Training System: Invests in skill development, reducing
unemployment.
 India’s Skill India Mission: Aims to train workers for high-skill jobs.

5. Malthusian Theory of Population

 Proposed by Thomas Robert Malthus in 1798.
 Key Idea: Population growth will always outpace food supply, leading to shortages,
famine, and poverty.
Concepts:
📈 Population grows geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, 16…)
📉 Food supply grows arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…)
Criticism:
❌ Ignores technological advances (e.g., Green Revolution increased food production).
❌ Countries like the USA and Japan manage large populations with effective policies.
Example:
 Sub-Saharan Africa faces food shortages due to rapid population growth.
 India’s Green Revolution (1960s) disproved Malthus by increasing agricultural
yields.

6. Optimum Population Theory

 Proposed by Edwin Cannan in 1924.
 Key Idea: There is an ideal population size that maximizes per capita income and
wealth production.
Graph Representation:
 Too low: Not enough labor force → lower production.
 Too high: Overcrowding and unemployment → lower productivity.
 Optimal point: Maximum economic output.
Example:
 Sweden and Canada maintain an optimal population with immigration policies and
family planning.
 India’s high population density puts pressure on resources, affecting the optimum
level.

7. Demographic Transition Theory

 Explains how population growth evolves over time.
 Countries pass through stages of demographic change based on birth and death
rates.
Four Stages of Demographic Transition:
1️) Stage 1: High birth & death rates → Stable population (Pre-industrial society).
2️) Stage 2: Death rates decline, birth rates stable → Rapid population growth (Developing
nations).
3️) Stage 3: Birth rates decline, death rates low → Slower growth (Industrialized nations).
4️) Stage 4: Low birth & death rates → Stable or declining population (Developed
countries).
Diagram Representation:
📊 A graph showing declining birth and death rates over time.
Example:
 India is in Stage 3, with declining birth rates.
 Japan is in Stage 4, experiencing population decline.
8. Future Considerations
Challenges of Overpopulation:
❌ Pressure on food, water, and energy.
❌ Urban overcrowding and unemployment.
❌ Climate change impact due to excessive resource use.
Solutions for Sustainable Growth:
✔ Family Planning Programs (e.g., China’s One-Child Policy, India’s National Population
Policy).
✔ Education & Skill Development to improve workforce quality.
✔ Sustainable Resource Management for food, water, and energy security.

📌 Additional Case Studies

1️⃣ India’s Demographic Dividend
 Concept: India has a young population, with over 65% below the age of 35.
  Potential: If educated and skilled, they can boost economic growth through labor
force participation.
 Challenge: High unemployment and lack of skills prevent full utilization of this
workforce.
 Government Initiatives:
o Skill India Mission (2015)
o Make in India to boost job creation
o National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 to improve human capital
2️⃣ China’s One-Child Policy
 Implemented in 1979 to control population growth.
 Outcome: Slowed population growth but led to an aging population and labor
shortages.
 Recent Changes:
o 2015: Two-child policy introduced.
o 2021: Three-child policy to encourage population growth.
3️⃣ Japan’s Aging Population Crisis
 Issue: Japan has a declining birth rate and a large elderly population.
 Impact:
o Labor shortages
o Increased healthcare costs
o Lower economic productivity
 Government Measures:
o Promoting automation & AI to replace human labor
o Encouraging immigration (though limited)
4️⃣ Green Revolution & Malthusian Theory
 Malthus predicted food shortages due to high population growth.
 Green Revolution (1960s) in India, led by M.S. Swaminathan, increased
agricultural production using HYV seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation.
 Result: India became self-sufficient in food production, disproving Malthus’s
predictions.

📊 Diagrams & Graphs

1️⃣ Demographic Transition Model
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Stage 1: High birth rate | High death rate → Stable Population
Stage 2: High birth rate | Declining death rate → Population Boom
Stage 3: Declining birth rate | Low death rate → Slower Growth
Stage 4: Low birth rate | Low death rate → Stable/Declining Population
📌 Example:
 India is in Stage 3 (declining birth rate, low death rate).
 Japan is in Stage 4 (aging population, negative growth).
2️⃣ Optimum Population Theory (Graph Representation)
 X-axis: Population Size
 Y-axis: Per Capita Income
 Shows that too low or too high population reduces per capita income.
 Optimal population leads to the highest economic prosperity.

📖 Practice Questions for UPSC EPFO

📝 Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs)
1. According to Malthus, how does population grow in comparison to food supply?
A) Both grow arithmetically
B) Population grows geometrically, food grows arithmetically
C) Population grows linearly, food grows exponentially
D) Both grow at the same rate
➡ Answer: B
2. Which of the following theories states that there is an ideal population size that
maximizes per capita wealth?
A) Malthusian Theory
B) Demographic Transition Theory
C) Optimum Population Theory
D) Dependency Theory
➡ Answer: C
3. In which stage of Demographic Transition is India currently?
A) Stage 1
B) Stage 2
C) Stage 3
D) Stage 4
➡ Answer: C
4. What was the major drawback of China’s One-Child Policy?
A) Population explosion
B) High infant mortality
C) Aging population and labor shortages
D) Increased crime rates
➡ Answer: C